Week in Review: Wild Card Whiplash

The Weekly Nutshell:
The Twins entered this past week coming off perhaps their worst series of the entire season — a demoralizing sweep at the hands of the Phillies that left Minnesota on the ropes, five games below .500 with six weeks remaining. Once again, the Twins put themselves in a tough spot. And once again, they resiliently bounced back, putting together perhaps their best series of the season in a sweep over the Braves. For a brief moment, Minnesota overtook sole ownership of the third AL's Wild Card spot.

Then: all progress erased. The Twins traveled to San Diego and dropped all three against the Padres, including a blown four-run lead on Saturday. By the end of play on Sunday, three teams (Texas, Cleveland and Toronto) stood between Minnesota and the last postseason position, with the Orioles tied at two games back. That tells you how quickly things can swing in this tight race, but also underscores why the Twins can't afford more series like the ones against Philadelphia and San Diego. Fortunately, the schedule is about to ease up.

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/17 through Sun, 8/23
***
Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 63-68)
Run Differential Last Week: -6 (Overall: -54)
Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (5.5 GB); 2.0 games out of WC

Latest Game Results

Game 126 | MIN 4, ATL 2: Bats Stake Early Lead, Bullpen Holds Tight to Win Opener

• Twins bullpen: 4.2 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 2 BB, 4 K

Game 127 | MIN 4, ATL 1: Matthews Leads Charge in Masterful Pitching Performance

• Matthews: 5.2 IP, 1 R, 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K

Game 128 | MIN 6, ATL 4: Offense Shows Fight as Twins Complete Impressive Sweep

• Clemens: 2-4, 2B, 3 RBI

Game 129 | SD 6, MIN 2: Prielipp Hits Mid-Game Wall Again, Lineup Held to Two Hits

• Prielipp: 6 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 7 K

Game 130 | SD 7, MIN 5: Early Lead Evaporates, Morris Melts Down in Four-Run Seventh

• Morris: 1 IP, 4 R (1 ER), 3 H

Game 131 | SD 8, MIN 1: Twins Lineup Goes Feebly Against Buehler, Bullpen Struggles

• Twins bullpen: 3 IP, 7 ER

NEWS & NOTES

Austin Martin, who was injured in the series finale against Philadelphia last weekend, went on the injured list Monday with a hamstring strain. While the severity of the injury was deemed mild, it will keep Martin out into September, subtracting a useful right-handed bat from a lineup that continues to need all the help it can get against lefties. (Two more on tap in Sacramento to open the coming week, by the way.)

To replace Martin on the roster, the Twins front office bypassed every interesting or exciting option, instead turning back to Alex Jackson, who'd just cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A one day earlier. Jackson will resume his role as a sparsely-used third catcher offering no real utility on the roster. Walker Jenkins, who notched a pair of two-homer games in Columbus this past week, remains in the minors for the time being. 

Kendry Rojas exited Friday night's game for the Saints and landed on the IL a day later with a right oblique strain. It could be a season-ender given how little runway is left. At minimum he'll be sidelined for several weeks, taking a key potential weapon out of the pitching equation as the Twins make their push. 

HIGHLIGHTS

Minnesota's rotation entered this past week in a major funk, ranking 29th out of all MLB teams in ERA since the All-Star break (5.86) and coming off a dreadful week against Baltimore and Philly. This unit badly needed to get on track, and they did so against the Braves.

Bailey Ober kicked things off with a solid, albeit short, outing on Monday, allowing two runs in 4 ⅓ innings. Derek Shelton wisely exercised an early hook, handing a 4-2 lead over to the relievers who shut things down the rest of the way to seal a win. 

Zebby Matthews improved upon Ober's results the next night with 5 ⅔ innings of one-run ball in a 4-1 victory. Taj Bradley followed with one run allowed over five innings on Wednesday to help the Twins clinch a sweep. Dean Kremer was effective again on Saturday, allowing two runs in 5 ⅓, and Ober held the Padres to one run in five innings on Sunday. 

No one's getting through six innings but the whole point of the trade deadline strategy was to lessen the need for it. When the bolstered bullpen is holding up its end of the bargain and the offense is showing some fight, those types of outings are really all the Twins need from their starters. 

Kody Clemens came into the week with a sub-.500 OPS in the month of August, but caught fire against Atlanta and San Diego, driving in seven runs on eight hits (including a double and a triple) in 18 at-bats. Clemens was pivotal in Wednesday's win over the Braves, delivering two key run-scoring hits including the eventual game-winner. He's tied for the AL lead with six triples on the season, delivering power and clutchness that help make up for an OBP leaving plenty to be desired.

Luke Keaschall, unlike Clemens, has been an on-base machine. He kept it rolling last week with multiple hits in four of six games, totaling 10 hits in 26 at-bats to lift his average to .274 for the year. Keaschall stumbled out of the gates with a cold month of April, but since May 1st his .402 OBP ranks third in all of baseball. Shelton has finally slid Keaschall up to the leadoff spot and I see little reason that should change. He's pretty much an ideal table-setter atop the order.

A few other notable performances from an offense that is hopefully showing signs of awakening for the stretch run:

• Josh Bell supplied some pop with two doubles, a homer and five RBIs. He's enjoying a monster month of August after slumping through the second half of July. Bell leads the team with 77 RBIs on the season, and has an OPS north of 1.000 with runners in scoring position. 
• Streaky Brooks Lee was 1-for-13 on the week before coming through with a three-hit game on Saturday night, which included a home run and a double. He then added another solo shot on Sunday — the lone damage Minnesota could muster against Walker Buehler and the Padres. Lee is up to 20 home runs on the season and he ranks second on the team behind Bell in RBIs with 69.
• Kaelen Culpepper launched the second home run of his young career on Saturday, as part of a 7-for-21 week that lifts his slash line to .289/.340/.444 through 13 games as a Twin. There have been some rough patches and learning moments for the rookie, but overall he has provided the kind of spark that the Twins hoped for when they promoted him.

LOWLIGHTS

It's great to see guys like Bell and Culpepper stepping up here in the late stage of the season, but the Twins continue to be held back by a lack of production from two hitters who carried their offense in the first half. 

Trevor Larnach had zero hits or walks in 13 plate appearances last week, and is batting .151 in August. Larnach has one RBI and no extra-base hits in his past 48 plate appearances as a breakthrough season cools into a much more ordinary one. He has essentially switched spots in the order with Keaschall against righties, with Larnach batting sixth, seventh and seventh in his past three starts after hitting leadoff almost exclusively since June. 

The player whose true form the Twins are missing more than anything, though, is Byron Buxton. He started five of six games, and pinch-hit in the other, so obviously Buxton is feeling well enough to be on the field. But, he does not look right. It comes through in the numbers — Buxton was 3-for-19 last week, and is batting .129 with no home runs and one RBI in eight games since being activated from the injured list. His level of discomfort is also very evident in watching him play.

He hasn't been running hard, removing a key aspect of his value. Buxton tapped into double plays on both Saturday and Sunday, giving him two more GIDPs in one weekend than he had all of last year. He hasn't tried to steal a base since July 5th, when an attempt at Yankee Stadium flared up his hip and led to an IL stint. Buxton made a spectacular play in the outfield at Petco on Friday but it visibly took a toll, as he stayed on the ground for several seconds before slowly getting up and gingerly walking off the field.

His diving grab in San Diego is a reminder that Buxton can still do special things even while physically compromised, but watching him swing the bat and run the bases makes clear just how affected he is. This is hardly the first time we've seen Buxton play through pain, but in the past, you'd usually rather have him at less than 100 percent than any of the alternatives. Right now, with Jenkins banging down the door in Triple-A and Emmanuel Rodriguez making a case in his own right, I'm not so sure that's the case. Is there a point where it stops making sense to push Buxton through what he's dealing with and try something else?

The Twins also need to consider what their best course of action is with Connor Prielipp. Unlike Buxton, there is no sign Prielipp is playing through any injury, but he does appear to be wearing down. His start against the Padres on Friday was the second straight where he unraveled in the middle innings, turning a quality outing into a clunker. Prielipp had allowed two runs through four innings in San Diego before giving up four runs in the fifth on a parade of singles.

Prielipp fell to 3-7 with the loss, on the heels of coughing up eight runs against the Phillies. His ERA is up to 5.57 and his control is beginning to elude him, with 12 walks across four August starts. The left-hander is already well beyond his career high for workload with 112 innings pitched this season, and his velocity was down a tick in this latest start. 

I don't know that the Twins can really afford to shut him down, especially with the Rojas injury eroding their already thin rotation depth, but a quicker hook might be in order versus letting him face lineups three times as he has in these past two starts.

TRENDING STORYLINE

We're heading into the home stretch, with five weeks left to go. The Twins have one of the softest remaining schedules, giving them a chance to make a run despite their relatively unfavorable current position. But in order to take advantage, they've got to play better baseball than we've largely seen this month. Buxton's ability to get on track looms large, as does the front office's willingness to press the red button and promote Jenkins.

The other glaring question: When will Joe Ryan make it back? He threw off a mound on Tuesday and it sounds like that went reasonably well, with Ryan calling it "a step in the right direction." But the clock is ticking with only 31 games remaining on the schedule. I'll be closely watching to see what kinds of strides he is able to make in the coming seven days, and whether any plans for a rehab assignment are put into motion. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Taking advantage of the relatively soft remaining schedule needs to start now, with a ripe opportunity at hand. The Twins are heading to Sacramento for three games against an A's team that leads the majors with 80 losses. Taking at least two of three is a must, because from there the Twins embark on a run of 15 consecutive games against AL Central opponents, including six against the division-leading White Sox. It's go time.

MONDAY, AUGUST 24: TWINS @ ATHLETICS — RHP Zebby Matthews v. LHP Jeffrey Springs
TUESDAY, AUGUST 25: TWINS @ ATHLETICS — RHP Taj Bradley v. LHP Gage Jump
WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 26: TWINS @ ATHLETICS — LHP Connor Prielipp v. RHP J.T. Ginn
FRIDAY, AUGUST 28: WHITE SOX @ TWINS — RHP Luis Castillo v. RHP Dean Kremer
SATURDAY, AUGUST 29: WHITE SOX @ TWINS — TBD v. RHP Bailey Ober
SUNDAY, AUGUST 30: WHITE SOX @ TWINS — TBD v. RHP Zebby Matthews