Realistic trade return ideas

[blairpaul715]

With the talk of the Twins having so many trade options , especially with the pitching, I will PITCH a trade idea involving pitching with what I think would be proper return.......Not that I expect it to happen, but I can dream..........but how about a Cole Hamels(4 more yrs of contract, not too exorbitant in yrs) for Alex Meyers, Trevor May, Jorge Polanco(or add in prospects or subtract prospects as you seem fit)  maybe another mid tier prospect..........If we can keep Buxton and Sano, and still have our middle infield intact, we would basically be adding an ace to what could become a pretty good team within that 4 yr window, with an ace that could actually help us win a series..........  

 

Pitching Rotation 2016-2018:

1 Cole Hamels

2 Phil Hughes

3 Ervin Santana

4 Ricky Nolasco

5 Kyle Gibson, with Jose Berrios waiting in the wings.

 

Twins lineup

CF Byron Buxton

2B Brian Dozier

1B Joe Mauer

3B Miguel Sano

DH Kennys Vargas

RF Oswaldo Arcia

C Kurt Suzuki and ?????????

LF Eddie Rosario

SS Danny Santana

 

 

To me that looks like a pretty decent lineup that could win pitching wise in the short term and hitting wise in the long term, if we can only get them to mesh a yr or 2 would be great.......and with what looks like some decent bullpen help coming too.

 

Ideas? Thoughts? Would this be enough to get a Cole Hamels, or maybe no one would want Cole Hamels???

 

 

 

[blairpaul715]

So no one has to look it up, Hamels contract is 4 more yrs at 22.5 million a yr, plus a 5th yr club option for 20 million with a 6 million buyout, so would be 4 yrs $96 million or 5 yrs $110 million. 31 yrs old this yr, so would take him thru age 34 or 35 if you take up option yr.

[gunnarthor]

I think the Phillies are going to want a few top prospects in return.  Padres got a couple top 50 prospects plus a pretty strong reliever and Edison Volquez for Mat Latos.  Obviously, salary is gong to be a part of any deal but I don't think Meyer's trade stock is all that strong, as he is 25 and still has control issues.  Berrios doesn't have the ceiling and Stewart is too far away.  I don't think the Phillies would trade Hamels without Sano or Buxton being a key piece.  

 

Pitching is expensive right now and even non-aces, guys like Chris Archer, would probably be pretty hard to get.  

[Mike Sixel]

I like the idea, but I think it is more likely the Twins deal Plouffe and Escobar and somehow Mauer, for prospects, than the other way around. Oh, and Perkins.

 

I'd call SF right now, and offer Nolasco, Santana, Perkins and Meyer and see what they offer back. I'd call SD right now, and see what I can get for Plouffe or Escobar.

[gunnarthor]

The Padres are in win-now mode and have some nice depth at pitcher so a guy like Tyson Ross (probably overrated a bit b/c of his home park) could be moved.  Depending on how they view him (starter or UI), a package of Escobar + 2 of Meyer/Berrios/Stewart + Polanco might be enough.  

[blairpaul715]

 

I like the idea, but I think it is more likely the Twins deal Plouffe and Escobar and somehow Mauer, for prospects, than the other way around. Oh, and Perkins.

 

I'd call SF right now, and offer Nolasco, Santana, Perkins and Meyer and see what they offer back. I'd call SD right now, and see what I can get for Plouffe or Escobar.

I dont think San Diego has anything left, maybe they can borrow back from Atlanta LOL

[Shane Wahl]

I like realistic trade ideas. I would actually go the other way and trade guys like Plouffe, Escobar, Fien, and maybe Gibson for mid-tier prospects to provide more depth . . . because they aren't going to get a high pick after next year, right? Right!?

 

Also, there is no possibility of trading Ricky Nolasco this season. It isn't happening. He might be terrible, and even if he is Nolasco-average, there are two more years after this one!

[TheLeviathan]

How are we 5 posts into this thread without a Duensing reference?  For shame.....

[nytwinsfan]

I'd listen to San Diego about D. Santana, Plouffe, and/or Escobar (obviously not both Escobar and D. Santanta). San Diego still has some good prospects left: Renfroe, Hedges, Liriano, and Gettys would all be targets I'm interested in. I doubt the Twins would do it until a little later in the spring or summer, but any of those prospects would be valuable and help fill holes in the Twins' lineup. Hedges and especially Renfroe would probably take something more, but we could throw in another, lower ranking prospect, or to appease the above poster, Duensing.

[DuluthFan]

It's a little early in the season to discuss trades, however I would endorse any trade that moves May & Meyers. If for no other reason than to quiet the calls to bring them up to the MLB team.

While the proposed trade for Hamels looks interesting as proposed, I don't see the Twins willing to pay ANY pitcher more than $20 million per year.

[blairpaul715]

 

I think the Phillies are going to want a few top prospects in return.  Padres got a couple top 50 prospects plus a pretty strong reliever and Edison Volquez for Mat Latos.  Obviously, salary is gong to be a part of any deal but I don't think Meyer's trade stock is all that strong, as he is 25 and still has control issues.  Berrios doesn't have the ceiling and Stewart is too far away.  I don't think the Phillies would trade Hamels without Sano or Buxton being a key piece.  

 

Pitching is expensive right now and even non-aces, guys like Chris Archer, would probably be pretty hard to get.  

Well I would trade any 1 2 3 or 4 of our prospects other than Buxton and Sano for Hamels........i dont expect it to happen, i just wanted to see what people thoughts were..... I think taking on a big contract is not so bad, better than these 7 and 8 yr contracts that you have to sign , i would rather buy partway into one thru a trade, if it would bring us to the top or close...............and i just threw Hamels out there, maybe there are other ideas..............Also Latos last trade to Marlins only returned 2 prospects, mostly because Cincinnati wanted to get rid of the contract , which wasnt to bad.......and Philly wants to get rid of Hamels contract too, but i would guess they will wait till trade deadline and get the most they can then.

[James]

 

I like realistic trade ideas. I would actually go the other way and trade guys like Plouffe, Escobar, Fien, and maybe Gibson for mid-tier prospects to provide more depth . . . because they aren't going to get a high pick after next year, right? Right!?

 

Also, there is no possibility of trading Ricky Nolasco this season. It isn't happening. He might be terrible, and even if he is Nolasco-average, there are two more years after this one!

I think you're right about Nolasco.  No way he gets moved this year.  Then again, I thought there was going to be no way that Atalanta could get out from that Upton contract.

 

I think the only way that the Twins could get Hamels would be to include either Buxton or Sano, but Philly would probably ask for both to start with.  One of them and Berrios with a few other lower level prospects would probably be needed.

 

...and Duensing.  He would have to be included, obviously.

[nicksaviking]

Another 30+ year-old pitcher on a four-year deal? I like him better than Noalsco, Santana and even Hughes, but no need to triple down on an already ridiculous rebuild philosophy.

[tobi0040]

I think Cole's deal adds value to him rather than brings his value down.  Since he signed that deal, Kershaw signed for over $30M. Max signed for $30M.  Verlander and Felix signed 7 year deals in the $27M range.

 

Heck, Rick Porcello and his 4.30 career ERA signed almost the same deal that Cole Hamels has (4-80+).

 

Any deal for Cole at this point is going to revolve around a top prospect in return.  I don't think they are going to be blown away by quantity.

[gunnarthor]

 

Well I would trade any 1 2 3 or 4 of our prospects other than Buxton and Sano for Hamels........i dont expect it to happen, i just wanted to see what people thoughts were..... I think taking on a big contract is not so bad, better than these 7 and 8 yr contracts that you have to sign , i would rather buy partway into one thru a trade, if it would bring us to the top or close...............and i just threw Hamels out there, maybe there are other ideas..............Also Latos last trade to Marlins only returned 2 prospects, mostly because Cincinnati wanted to get rid of the contract , which wasnt to bad.......and Philly wants to get rid of Hamels contract too, but i would guess they will wait till trade deadline and get the most they can then.

Well, I'm sure Berrios/Meyer/Stewart/Gordon would be enough but the Twins wouild be nuts to do that.  I just don't see how they would take on that salary.  

 

I don't think the Twins can trade for a legit ace in this market.  They can try and sign a guy like Zimmerman in FA next year (they won't) or they can try and trade for prospects who may develop into aces (like with Meyer).  But they aren't bringing on a 80m contract and losing all those prospects at the same time.

 

The Latos trade was the first one between Reds and Padres. 

[jimmer]

 

 

 

Heck, Rick Porcello and his 4.30 career ERA signed almost the same deal that Cole Hamels has (4-80+).

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/rick-porcellos-upcoming-enormous-payday/

 

This article was written almost two months ago and makes some sense.

[Vance_Christianson]

Can we trade Meyer/May, Gonsalves, Escobar, Kepler/Harrison for TULOWITZKI?!

 

ELITE lineup after trade:

1. Buxton - cf

2. Dozier - 2b

3. Tulo - SS

4. Sano - 3b

5. Vargas - DH

6. Mauer - 1b

7. Arcia - RF

8. Suzuki/Pinto - C

9. Rosario - RF

[Mike Sixel]

I'd do Santana, May or Meyer, Gonsavles, random guy around 10-15th best prospect, for Tulo....but that would NOT BE ENOUGH.

[tobi0040]

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/rick-porcellos-upcoming-enormous-payday/

 

This article was written almost two months ago and makes some sense.

 

Pretty interesting.  The market has moved up in such a way that guys with effectively league average numbers in some cases, Porcello, Bailey, etc. are 5-100 guys.  Cole looks like a real steal because he is hand down better than these guys.

[Winston Smith]

Hamels isn't going to make this a playoff team this year. When they finally get some of these prize prospects up and producing then it would make sense to add a top pitcher. However, when has Ryan ever done something like that when he's had the chance?

[Mike Sixel]

Well, Porcello got "only" 4 / 85 or something like that......if he had waited, I think 5/100 was in his future, but now he has certainty.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Hamels isn't going to make this a playoff team this year. When they finally get some of these prize prospects up and producing then it would make sense to add a top pitcher. However, when has Ryan ever done something like that when he's had the chance?

 

never. not once.

[jimmer]

 

Pretty interesting.  The market has moved up in such a way that guys with effectively league average numbers in some cases, Porcello, Bailey, etc. are 5-100 guys.  Cole looks like a real steal because he is hand down better than these guys.

Porcello is young for a person with as much time in the league he has (only a year older than Alex Meyer), and he has steadily improved.  I think many are expecting him to keep improving a bit and with salaries continuing to rise, it's no surprising he got what he got.

[James]

 

Can we trade Meyer/May, Gonsalves, Escobar, Kepler/Harrison for TULOWITZKI?!

 

ELITE lineup after trade:

1. Buxton - cf

2. Dozier - 2b

3. Tulo - SS

4. Sano - 3b

5. Vargas - DH

6. Mauer - 1b

7. Arcia - RF

8. Suzuki/Pinto - C

9. Rosario - RF

Yeah... That's probably not enough to get him. Also, it sounds like Dick Monfort will never let Tulo be traded.

[tobi0040]

 

Porcello is young for a person with as much time in the league he has (only a year older than Alex Meyer), and he has steadily improved.  I think many are expecting him to keep improving a bit and with salaries continuing to rise, it's no surprising he got what he got.

 

ERA+ by year:

 

114

85

87

93

96

116

Career 98.

 

Last year he had career years in  BABIP, HR/9, and LOB%.  He gave up 4% fewer hits compared to his BABIP and stranded another 3.6% of his runners.  He saw a 16% reduction in his HR to FB rate. 

[jimmer]

 

ERA+ by year:

 

114

85

87

93

96

116

Career 98.

 

Last year he had career years in  BABIP, HR/9, and LOB%.  He gave up 4% fewer hits compared to his BABIP and stranded another 3.6% of his runners.  He saw a 16% reduction in his HR to FB rate. 

He saw a very slight jump in FIP from 2013 to 2014, after seeing his FIP drop four straight seasons, but he also added almost 30 innings pitched, breaking the 200 IP mark for the first time.

[tobi0040]

 

He saw a very slight jump in FIP from 2013 to 2014, after seeing his FIP drop four straight seasons, but he also added almost 30 innings pitched, breaking the 200 IP mark for the first time.

 

I guess I don't get the contract at all. His numbers to date are not league average.  I know he is young. But now that you have given him $22M a year, what is your upside?

 

According to Cot's, the only pitchers that make more annually are:

 

Kershaw, Max, Lester, Verlander, Felix, Greinke, CC, Lee, and Hamels.  Porcello has a long way to be in this club.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/highest-paid-players/

 

[Kwak]

 

Porcello is young for a person with as much time in the league he has (only a year older than Alex Meyer), and he has steadily improved.  I think many are expecting him to keep improving a bit and with salaries continuing to rise, it's no surprising he got what he got.

Or why the Twins should be starting May and Meyer (very soon) instead of talking (dreaming) about Cole Hamels.

[South Dakota Tom]

To me, the highlight of this trade (or similar ones) is to demonstrate how close we are to having a strong lineup in the next couple of years.

 

I think the only way to accomplish it is to wait and see what plays out - that is clearly what the F.O. is doing. This is good in that we aren't throwing top prospects at one guy in the hopes he puts us over the top. It is bad in that I don't see anything happening for quite awhile yet (until we figure out who is going to be good and who is going to be gone).

 

But that batting lineup looks good to me, and I'd like to see it in place sooner rather than later (a call echoed throughout this website for several years).

[diehardtwinsfan]

no way you bring in a guy like Hammels unless you are jettisoning Nolasco or Santana.