Realistic trade return ideas

[blairpaul715]

 

And, here you go....a post saying don't trade Vargas or Walker......so, yup, right in this thread.

 

Btw, I'd rather pay Mauer to retire, and put Sano at 1B, why not? I mean, if you are paying Joe anyway?

If you were going to do this, and we both know they are not, but wouldnt you just eat his salary, and then trade and maybe you could get a prospect, Mauer would be attractive at less than $5 M a yr.

[Mike Sixel]

Yes, I would deal Mauer and eat all his salary, to free up room for Sano and Plouffe to be on the same team. Plouffe is a top 5 to 10 3B right now, no way I gave up on that. Good point on the eat and trade. If he won't agree to a trade, I would find another way not to play him.

[Mike Sixel]

It would be a mistake to want Mauer over Plouffe, imo. cannot believe I just typed that.

[Hrbowski]

 

Yes, I would deal Mauer and eat all his salary, to free up room for Sano and Plouffe to be on the same team. Plouffe is a top 5 to 10 3B right now, no way I gave up on that. Good point on the eat and trade. If he won't agree to a trade, I would find another way not to play him.

Mauer won't waive his no trade contract when the Twins are doing this good.

[blairpaul715]

 

No trading Sano, Buxton or Berrios for Hamels. Just no.  Other prospects I would consider, but really, I'd rather not trade for anymore pitchers. We have some good pitching prospects in the pipeline, and may draft another one (including maybe a college one) this year. The biggest long-term organizational need in my opinion is catcher, and even that we have a couple of guys who could be decent.

As far as catcher, who??? Turner??? Good defense , no bat, i suppose that can change, but as of now he is Butera with a little more sock to his hits.

[Hrbowski]

I don't see why people want Van Slyke, he would just be a fourth outfielder.

[Hrbowski]

 

As far as catcher, who??? Turner??? Good defense , no bat, i suppose that can change, but as of now he is Butera with a little more sock to his hits.

Garver and Navaretto have good potential, Silva is super good.

[Hrbowski]

 

I was thinking of a potential trade for Hamels involving Nolasco and not Sano.  It would involve taking on Howard's deal as well.  The trade would be we get Hamels and Howard, trade Nolasco, One or possibly two of our top pitching prospects, and Kepler or someone of his level. 

 

We get rid of Nolasco and his unwanted contract, and they get rid of Howard's unwanted contract, and get pitching prospects, and a possible replacement at first in Kepler.

That would be a horrible trade for us.

[tobi0040]

 

You're right that $60m is on the low side but the Twins will almost surely control Sano for seven years, not six.

 

Yeah, I was thinking we control the guy for 7 of the 9-10 years.  If we bought out 1-2 years of FA on a sweetheart deal, I think $60M is in the ballpark.  He may only make $1.5M in the first three. $20-25M the next four.  On a 9 year deal, $35M for two years seems like it would not be too unrealistic on an early extension.

 

Either way, 9-10 years for likely less than Hamels will get in 3.5.  Prime years versus > 30 years...

[blairpaul715]

 

Garver and Navaretto have good potential, Silva is super good.

I will give you Navaretto and Silva as prospects, but they are 4 , 5 yrs away, and not even close to being sure things, Garver is proving , unless this yr is his abberation yr, that he is not a real prospect, I still am holding out hope that Stuart can be, but as much as we need a good defensive C , and Stuart is that, i would like a one with a little pop and a decent avg, if he could hit .250 i would be ecstatic.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Garver and Navaretto have good potential, Silva is super good.

 

In 4-5 years, maybe, maybe. In the mean time, they got nothing, if they don't like Pinto. Nothing.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Mauer won't waive his no trade contract when the Twins are doing this good.

 

Probably not, but Mauer should not hold back Sano, nor should Mauer be preferred over Plouffe.

 

Easiest answer is Sano at DH......but at some point, they are going to have to do something with Mauer.

[SwainZag]

 

Probably not, but Mauer should not hold back Sano, nor should Mauer be preferred over Plouffe.

 

Easiest answer is Sano at DH......but at some point, they are going to have to do something with Mauer.

 

You can probably count on him being in the lineup through the 2018 which he is signed through unless he really, really starts to struggle

 

Outside of this season besides slugging, Mauer has consistantly been a better player than Plouffe.  Plouffe did outslug Mauer by 52 points last season but Joe still had a 20 point edge in batting average and a 33 point edge in OBP.  While not worth his 23M salary by any means is not a worthless player and IMO is no way holding Sano back.

[Mike Sixel]

Did you just compare how a 3B hits to how a 1B hits?

 

If you had to choose to get rid of a top 10 3B, or a bottom ten 1B to make room for Sano, what would you choose?

[Mike Sixel]

Plouffe is obliterating him on offense this year, SSS aside.

[KScott]

 

Did you just compare how a 3B hits to how a 1B hits?

 

If you had to choose to get rid of a top 10 3B, or a bottom ten 1B to make room for Sano, what would you choose?

I think you have to in order to make a comparison. I mean Sano's production isn't going to suddenly get better because he moves to first from third.  So the comparison then becomes who would Sano provide a bigger upgrade to on the roster.

So, you are finding the difference between Sano and Plouffe, and Sano and Mauer then comparing the difference. You take the one with the bigger difference.

The rank of Mauer and Plouffe at their respective positions is irrelevant. It comes down to how much improvement would happen.  For that reason you have to compare how the 3rd baseman is hitting compared to the 1st baseman. There is no way around it.

 

That said, I would prefer Plouffe to Mauer. Plouffe is cheaper, younger, more flexible where he can play, with similar stats over the last two years -- oh and Plouffe is the better of the two this year.

 

Plouffe has more/higher:
  Runs

  RBIs

  HRs

  OBP
  SLG

  OPS

  

So yes, I would much rather have Plouffe to Mauer.

 

 

[clone52]

 

I will say this again.  Ricky Nolasco has negative trade value. He is owed something like $30M over 2.5 years and he has been absolutely terrible.  His ERA has been 5.38 and 5.12.  His WHIP last year was 1.51 and this year it is 1.61. 

 

No team will give anything up for a guy that is putting up numbers that are much worse than replacement level and is owed that much money.  And he has had elbow issues to boot.  The only way we are trading Nolasco is if we give up a prospect that has much more value than the guy we are getting in return, effectively giving away a prospect in exchange for salary relief.

 

If it happens, I assure you it will be for MLB's equivalent of a player to be named later and/or cash considerations.

 

How about Ricky Nolasco for Ryan Howard and cash to make the money even?  Both players have negative trade value.  Ricky could rebound and have some upside for Philly in the NL and it gets Howard off the Phillies.  Twins rid themselves of the Ricky headache, free up a rotation spot for Milone/Santana now and Meyer/Berrios or any of the other "close" minor leaguers.  Twins take on Howard who either DH's or the get rid of him.  Or, if the Twins want to take on all of Howards salary, maybe they get a low prospect or 2 from the Phillies to sweeten the deal.

 

This really only makes sense if the Twins consider Ricky dead weight and no value.  Personally, I think he is rebounding and will be a useful contributor.

[Hrbowski]

 

Probably not, but Mauer should not hold back Sano, nor should Mauer be preferred over Plouffe.

 

Easiest answer is Sano at DH......but at some point, they are going to have to do something with Mauer.

They simply can't.

[Rosterman]

Who is not on the 40-man come 2016: Darnell, Duensing, Milone, pelfrey, Stauffer, Thielbar, Herrmann, Bernier, Nunez, Hunter, Schafer, Robinson.

 

Questionable could be such names as: Achter, Boyer, Fien, Pressly, Thompson, Tonkin, Wheeler, Suzucki, Polanco, Santana, Escobar, Kepler, Hicks, Arcia, Rosario. By questionable, guys that might not be offered arbitration, could be traded or non-tendered. There's a good chance that ALL the questionable names will still be Twins in 2014.

 

Depends on what non-40-man guys get a call this season: Berrios, Buxton, Stewart, Burdi, Jones et al. You can bet that the Twins WON'T call up anyone not on the 40-man if they really don't have to add them before November, or even sometime next year. That's the way they tend to do business.

 

+ players that could be tradebait. Assuming you are getting something more back than prospects. They could trade Nolasco, or even Gibson, for prospects as the season wears on, too.So, in my estimation, the Twins have a solid 25.

 

How many names do the Twins HAVE TO ADD to the 40-man come November. 8, 10, 12? Who will be minor league free agents. Who would be grabbed (shades of Sean Gilmartin) and kept on a roster all year -- Harrison, Michael, Turner, Wheeler, Rogers, Darnell?

 

It ain't easy being a general manager.

 

Yes, would the Twins benefit doing a monster trade with Philadelphia for Hamels, and Howard and maybe Revere. Could they give up Gibson and Hicks and Vargas with people like Stewart and Berrios and Walker and Kepler in the wings. Do they also have to include 1-2-3 prospects like a Kepler or a Polanco or a Michael or a Stewart or a Chargoiis. Are we benefitting that much with veterans who are oevr-the-hill expensive sluggers (Howard) and a rental (Revere) and an expensive arm that is a prime starter as long as healthy (Hamels). Yes. But do we need to do this, I say NO!

 

 

[DaveW]

The Mauer complaining has gone completely overboard, good lord, this team is on fire and yet people still need to bash him, less than a month ago he was over a .800 OPS, he is in a bit of slump now in May but he will bounce back and be fine. Hell at least in his "slump" he has at least been productive, RBI's aren't even close to a perfect stat, but it should be noted that he has 13 RBI in his last 19 hits over the last 21 games. If he will still plate 13 Runs in 21 (bad games) I can handle that.

 

Part of me wonders if part of the reason of why Mauer is doing so much better with runners on is because with runners on you can't do as extreme of shifts typically, no?

[drivlikejehu]

Mauer is really struggling. He's not going anywhere but it's very concerning from the standpoint that the Twins may have a replacement-level first baseman for the next few years.

[KScott]

My last comment shouldn't be construed as hating on Mauer. Just a statement of preferring Plouffe. Mauer is still better than many of the other possible options.

[Mike Sixel]

I was unaware talking about someone using math was bashing. There is no emotion in my posts at all. I root for the jersey, not an individual. This, for me, is about making the team better. I fail to see how these posts are any different than other analyses.

[Craig Arko]

I was unaware talking about someone using math was bashing. There is no emotion in my posts at all. I root for the jersey, not an individual. This, for me, is about making the team better. I fail to see how these posts are any different than other analyses.

That's how to Riemann Zeta Function them.

[DocBauer]

OK, guess I have to toss in some opinions as well.

 

1: I am not big on the BIG trade idea mid season, Hammels or whoever. I would consider it should it be a top young pitcher under 30 that we can reasonably expect to keep for a few years. But those are also the hardest players to come by. I also like the idea of taking complete stock of the organization at the end of the season, when we have a full 2015 season of action and numbers for comparison sake to help make the most educated and complete decisions possible. EX= Sano continues to get better and better, moves up, finds nice success at Rochester and seems ready. Do you keep Plouffe and move him to a different spot, or move him around? Or do you trade him/include him in a nice/big deal?

 

2: No, the Twins can't keep ALL of their prospects, they will not all turn out, and even if they did you wouldn't have room for them all anyway. But it's not a situation where you are forced to trade them, but rather, you have the opportunity to do so and improve. But this also plays back to point #1 to a degree.

 

3: Other than a top flight SP to join Hughes, Gibson, May and Berrios soon...(there are other possibles as well to be sure)...where would you improve the team? No, seriously. Not going to do better than Plouffe and Sano at 3B. Santana, Escobar and Polanco at SS. Unless you make a BIG move there, you just aren't helping yourself enough, or long enough. Replace Dozier? Mauer? Hicks is growing up before our eyes and Buxton is the future. Corner OF? Maybe there. Hunter is playing great and has meant a lot to this team, but he's almost certainly done after this year. Rosario might be here to stay...but maybe not yet. Arcia is still rough. Kepler is exploding but not ready yet. Ditto Walker. So maybe. DH? Maybe...but see the OF equation and toss in Vargas and Pinto.

 

LHRP is what I'd shoot for. As mentioned, there is so much overall depth of talent, so many solid guys who aren't a top 10, that I'd be looking for a reliable LH for the pen.

 

I'd be willing to up the ante while still trying my best to stay out iv my top 10 for a young catcher that I like. Someone needing some pitching help, for instance, and willing to move a quality milb prospect or young ML catcher because they have someone else ready. No names, just examples of what would be at the top of my list.

 

4: Barring injury or bad regression, solely or part of a package, (which would naturally include Duensing), the Twins pretty much gave to trade a SP at some point. Santana isn't going anywhere. Hughes and Gibson aren't going anywhere. Mays probably isn't going anywhere, and shouldn't. He's talented, improving, and part of the now AND the future. That leaves Nolasco and Pelfrey. I don't buy Nolasco being worthless. He has a solid career history. He's played for some bad teams. When on a solid to good team, his numbers are even better. DUH! But it's worth noting. Healthy and continuing to pitch well again, someone somewhere is going to be willing to have him solidify their rotation for 2 1/2 years. Yes, maybe even the Dodgers.

[DaveW]

In response to bullet point number three right above this post. The twins have the worst DH production overall in the entire MLB this year and it's not even close. That is an area you could improve.

[Mike Sixel]

Catcher, DH, bullpen. Of course, Sano could DH. I have no idea if there is a good catcher out there, but I would be looking for one.

[nicksaviking]

 

I'm OK if DH is bad if it's being used as a rotational spot so more young guys get MLB at bats. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm OK if DH is bad if it's being used as a rotational spot so more young guys get MLB at bats. 

 

Like Sano, Vargas, Arcia, Pinto types, yes, agreed. But, not Escobar, Nunez, types.

[tobi0040]

 

Catcher, DH, bullpen. Of course, Sano could DH. I have no idea if there is a good catcher out there, but I would be looking for one.

 

I looked at the top 10 or so fantasy catchers and then what those teams had for catching prospects.

 

The best is Andrew Susac, with the Giants.  Posey is under contract thru 2021.  Susac had an OPS Of .830 in AAA last year.  SB Nation says he will hit .260-.270 with some pop and solid defense.  Ready now but blocked.Law has him 46th on his top 100, so it would not cost Buxton, Sano, Berrios, etc.

 

The Brewers 3rd best prospect is Clint Coulter, a C/OF.  Hit 22 HR in low A last year, moving to OF. I am not sure if he is moving because he can't catch or because they have Lucroy.

 

The Yankees have Mccan thru 2018.  Gary Sanchez is their 5th best prospect.  Said he has a good arm but rough overall defense.

 

3-4 other teams had guys in the top 10, mostly in the 5-10 range that were 18-19 years old.  That is an option too IMO because our catcher pipeline is pretty weak, at least weaker than the other positions.