Realistic trade return ideas

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Like Sano, Vargas, Arcia, Pinto types, yes, agreed. But, not Escobar, Nunez, types.

Yeah, I don't understand their recent strategy. One of those guys - probably Pinto or Vargas - should be getting DH reps. I still don't understand the Vargas demotion, hopefully it's a temporary move and he'll be back up soon.

[SarasotaBill]

Follow the same blue print as the Cubs (Epstein).

 

The Twins are built to be good for at least the next six years if not longer if they don't trade their low cost assets for high cost assets. Without any large long term salaries, the Twins will be able to extend their young players once they get established just like Dozier.

 

At the trade deadline, unless the Twins are dominant I would attempt to deal Pelfrey if he's still pitching well. Trade Nolasco at any time if you can find a buyer. 

 

 

 

[stringer bell]

I have to disagree with Brock on Pelfrey (a bit).  He's had a good run and might continue to be sub3.50 ERA, but he's on the last year of his contract and there really isn't room to bring him back.  If the Dodgers would be willing to overpay for a rental, I'd be all over that.  My premise is that there are replacements who can do about as well, who will be here beyond 2015.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I have to disagree with Brock on Pelfrey (a bit).  He's had a good run and might continue to be sub3.50 ERA, but he's on the last year of his contract and there really isn't room to bring him back.  If the Dodgers would be willing to overpay for a rental, I'd be all over that.  My premise is that there are replacements who can do about as well, who will be here beyond 2015.

If the team is contending and a player is helping it stay relevant, letting a guy walk away after the season is complete is a perfectly acceptable thing to do.

 

That's one of my biggest pet peeves with trade talk. Not every player needs to be sold high or traded at the perfect time. If the player is helping the team in the here and now, there doesn't need to be a plan to get even more value out of him before he leaves.

 

Sometimes it makes sense to move a player, get value in return, and replace the guy with someone else... But if Pelfrey is pitching to a 130 ERA+ in July and the Twins are in the WC hunt, you keep that guy every time because 1)Ervin Santana cannot pitch playoff innings in 2015 and 2)Pelfrey's replacement will not throw 130 ERA+ innings in August and September, never mind the playoffs.

 

Sometimes, you have to think about the here and now, not what happens in November. Will Pelfrey and/or the Twins be this good in July? I'm extremely skeptical of that happening but I'm not ruling it out, either.

[drjim]

 

I looked at the top 10 or so fantasy catchers and then what those teams had for catching prospects.

 

The best is Andrew Susac, with the Giants.  Posey is under contract thru 2021.  Susac had an OPS Of .830 in AAA last year.  SB Nation says he will hit .260-.270 with some pop and solid defense.  Ready now but blocked.Law has him 46th on his top 100, so it would not cost Buxton, Sano, Berrios, etc.

 

The Brewers 3rd best prospect is Clint Coulter, a C/OF.  Hit 22 HR in low A last year, moving to OF. I am not sure if he is moving because he can't catch or because they have Lucroy.

 

The Yankees have Mccan thru 2018.  Gary Sanchez is their 5th best prospect.  Said he has a good arm but rough overall defense.

 

3-4 other teams had guys in the top 10, mostly in the 5-10 range that were 18-19 years old.  That is an option too IMO because our catcher pipeline is pretty weak, at least weaker than the other positions.

 

Susac is the only realistic option, but he wouldn't be better than Suzuki the next two years.

 

And unlikely the Giants would move him unless they got a quality big leaguer at a position of need, which would be Plouffe. And that's not happening.

 

Twins might consider acquiring a catching prospect if they collapse and start selling, but they are going to roll with Suzuki for the remainder of this season, and he is probably a top 15-20 catcher in the league at the moment, so they can live with that.

[Andrew]

Would a trade of Meyer, Berrios, Gordon, Harrison get Hamels? I don't want to loose Buxton or Sano, but I'm okay with losing Berrios and/or Meyer. We have 4 shortstops, so losing Gordon wouldn't be that bad. I think Hamels has more value to us because we don't have an ace or a lefty(I know Milone is a lefty but he isn't currently with the big club).

[tobi0040]

 

Susac is the only realistic option, but he wouldn't be better than Suzuki the next two years.

 

And unlikely the Giants would move him unless they got a quality big leaguer at a position of need, which would be Plouffe. And that's not happening.

 

Twins might consider acquiring a catching prospect if they collapse and start selling, but they are going to roll with Suzuki for the remainder of this season, and he is probably a top 15-20 catcher in the league at the moment, so they can live with that.

 

Suzuki has a career OPS of .689, and an OPS of .648 this year.  He will also be 32 in a few months.

 

Susac actually has 145 at bats when Posey has been out, and his OPS is .748. His OPS in AA was .820, .830 in AAA. 

 

As far as trade value, we have six to seven guys in the top 100 and Susac was 46 by Law.  So I think we could get him without giving up Plouffe.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Susac is the only realistic option, but he wouldn't be better than Suzuki the next two years.

 

And unlikely the Giants would move him unless they got a quality big leaguer at a position of need, which would be Plouffe. And that's not happening.

 

Twins might consider acquiring a catching prospect if they collapse and start selling, but they are going to roll with Suzuki for the remainder of this season, and he is probably a top 15-20 catcher in the league at the moment, so they can live with that.

 

I'm confused by the willingness to accept a guy who is 20th best at his position as a good idea (and, that's only counting offense, if you count defense, no chance he's top 20, based on years of data). If you have a glut of B prospects, and you have no good catching prospects in the next year or three.......why not upgrade this position?

[tobi0040]

 

I'm confused by the willingness to accept a guy who is 20th best at his position as a good idea (and, that's only counting offense, if you count defense, no chance he's top 20, based on years of data). If you have a glut of B prospects, and you have no good catching prospects in the next year or three.......why not upgrade this position?

 

Yeah, we are probably 1-2 years away from being absolutley raided in the rule 5 draft, unless we load up our entire 40 man with 22-24 year olds, which seems like a very different approach than what we have historically done.

 

At 20th best overall, catcher maybe the worst spot for us come July/August when you add Buxton and Sano to the mix.  And that guy that is 20th, which is debatable, is 32 years old with no real backup on the horizon.

 

Not to mention, the way in which we have been using Suzuki it will best case reduce his offensive numbers further over the next 1.5 years.  Worst case, cause an injury that forces the likes of Hermann to catch every day.

[stringer bell]

If the team is contending and a player is helping it stay relevant, letting a guy walk away after the season is complete is a perfectly acceptable thing to do.

 

That's one of my biggest pet peeves with trade talk. Not every player needs to be sold high or traded at the perfect time. If the player is helping the team in the here and now, there doesn't need to be a plan to get even more value out of him before he leaves.

 

Sometimes it makes sense to move a player, get value in return, and replace the guy with someone else... But if Pelfrey is pitching to a 130 ERA+ in July and the Twins are in the WC hunt, you keep that guy every time because 1)Ervin Santana cannot pitch playoff innings in 2015 and 2)Pelfrey's replacement will not throw 130 ERA+ innings in August and September, never mind the playoffs.

 

Sometimes, you have to think about the here and now, not what happens in November. Will Pelfrey and/or the Twins be this good in July? I'm extremely skeptical of that happening but I'm not ruling it out, either.

I just can't see Pelfrey carrying a 130 ERA+ to the trading deadline. I did mention that I would want the Dodgers or any other team to overpay, and I'm thinking help for the 2015 season and beyond. Perhaps, as mentioned following, acquiring a catcher who would be a significant upgrade over Herrmann and compete for a starting spot in 2016. Perhaps a bullpen piece (probably a left hander) that could help the club this year. If Pelf is above average by mid-season, the price would be steep.

[drjim]

 

I'm confused by the willingness to accept a guy who is 20th best at his position as a good idea (and, that's only counting offense, if you count defense, no chance he's top 20, based on years of data). If you have a glut of B prospects, and you have no good catching prospects in the next year or three.......why not upgrade this position?

 

I'm all for upgrading, just don't see how you do it based on who is out there and available. As was said, Susac is probably the best (only?) opportunity, but the upgrade this year and next is probably minimal and it would cost you Plouffe. I'm personally not interested in that.

[tobi0040]

 

 

I'm all for upgrading, just don't see how you do it based on who is out there and available. As was said, Susac is probably the best (only?) opportunity, but the upgrade this year and next is probably minimal and it would cost you Plouffe. I'm personally not interested in that.

 

I guess I don't see how the only way the Twins could get the #46 prospect is by surrendering a borderline all star 3B that is under team control.   MLB.com has Buxton, Sano, Meyer, Berrios, Gordon, and Stewart lower than 46.  I would argue we have guys in the 5-10 range, like Polanco and Rosario that are top five in most other systems.  And others in the 10-15 range that would be top 10 in others.  So we have breadth and depth to get something done.

 

Given the glut of OF, I think a swap makes a ton of sense for that reason alone. None of the Giants top 10 propsects are OF and their current roster is filled with 32+ OF.

[ericchri]

 

Would a trade of Meyer, Berrios, Gordon, Harrison get Hamels? I don't want to loose Buxton or Sano, but I'm okay with losing Berrios and/or Meyer. We have 4 shortstops, so losing Gordon wouldn't be that bad. I think Hamels has more value to us because we don't have an ace or a lefty(I know Milone is a lefty but he isn't currently with the big club).

I've been thinking similar thoughts to this for Hamels, but I'd probably make it something like Pelfrey, Gordon, Stewart/Meyer/Berrios, and I might try and slip in a Kanzler or the like instead of Harrison, but could live with it either way.  If I add a starting pitcher, I need to clean out one of the ones we have, since we already don't have enough room for all of them.  I'd think Pelfrey would be pretty attractive to them, as it helps keep the semblance of a major league pitching staff this year, but isn't terribly expensive and is off the books after the season.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm all for upgrading, just don't see how you do it based on who is out there and available. As was said, Susac is probably the best (only?) opportunity, but the upgrade this year and next is probably minimal and it would cost you Plouffe. I'm personally not interested in that.

 

I find it hard to believe there is only 1 catcher on the planet that is better than Suzuki, that would cost at least Plouffe. As pointed out below your post, I think you under rate the Twins' ability to acquire a catcher w/o giving up Plouffe to do so.

[nytwinsfan]

I've been thinking similar thoughts to this for Hamels, but I'd probably make it something like Pelfrey, Gordon, Stewart/Meyer/Berrios, and I might try and slip in a Kanzler or the like instead of Harrison, but could live with it either way.  If I add a starting pitcher, I need to clean out one of the ones we have, since we already don't have enough room for all of them.  I'd think Pelfrey would be pretty attractive to them, as it helps keep the semblance of a major league pitching staff this year, but isn't terribly expensive and is off the books after the season.

NOT Berrios. The others, maybe.

[Andrew]

I've been thinking similar thoughts to this for Hamels, but I'd probably make it something like Pelfrey, Gordon, Stewart/Meyer/Berrios, and I might try and slip in a Kanzler or the like instead of Harrison, but could live with it either way. If I add a starting pitcher, I need to clean out one of the ones we have, since we already don't have enough room for all of them. I'd think Pelfrey would be pretty attractive to them, as it helps keep the semblance of a major league pitching staff this year, but isn't terribly expensive and is off the books after the season.

I don't think the Phillies would be interested in Pelfrey as he is 30+ and has only this year left, so he has no long term value. Someone like Milone and/or May is a better fit for them. Pelfrey could be used as a peice in a smaller trade to acquire a catcher like Andrew Susac.

[Shane Wahl]

Not sure if anyone ever responded to wherever I posted about acquiring Kevin Plawecki from the Mets in a trade, but he is one target. He now has a sub-600 OPS with the Mets, but he wasn't really immediately ready for the Show anyway. He is better defensively than Pinto and has a similar bat potential. I believe he is about a 60-something prospect right now.

 

Of note: the Twins have Kurt Suzuki, who actually would be a nice backup catcher for a number of teams interested in the playoffs. They also have Trevor Plouffe. They also have Eduardo Escobar. They also have Josmil Pinto, Oswaldo Arcia, Kennys Vargas, Alex Meyer, Kohl Stewart, Jorge Polanco, Danny Santana, Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, Casey Fien, Blaine Boyer, Mike Pelfrey, Tommy Milone, Travis Harrison, and Adam Walker who could all generate moderate interest in trade packages.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I just can't see Pelfrey carrying a 130 ERA+ to the trading deadline. I did mention that I would want the Dodgers or any other team to overpay, and I'm thinking help for the 2015 season and beyond. Perhaps, as mentioned following, acquiring a catcher who would be a significant upgrade over Herrmann and compete for a starting spot in 2016. Perhaps a bullpen piece (probably a left hander) that could help the club this year. If Pelf is above average by mid-season, the price would be steep.

If the team is contending and the trade helps them improve in 2015, that's a different story.

 

Pelfrey leaving after the season is over should be irrelevant to a winning ballclub, though. Improving the on-field squad is one thing. Worrying about November when you're in the middle of a playoff run is something else entirely.

[drjim]

 

I find it hard to believe there is only 1 catcher on the planet that is better than Suzuki, that would cost at least Plouffe. As pointed out below your post, I think you under rate the Twins' ability to acquire a catcher w/o giving up Plouffe to do so.

 

I think for the rest of the season, there are about 20-25 catchers that would be clearly better than Suzuki, with perhaps 10-15 of those representing significantly more than a marginal upgrade. Of that number, 1 is potentially available for a price that would make sense, and even that is unlikely. And I'm also not entirely convinced that Susac would represent an upgrade over Suzuki this year or next if he had to play everyday.

 

I just did a quick and dirty look at catchers, by all means I would be interested in other alternatives, for the sake of discussion. I think people really underestimate how few quality catchers there are in the majors and how difficult it is to upgrade the position.

[drjim]

 

Not sure if anyone ever responded to wherever I posted about acquiring Kevin Plawecki from the Mets in a trade, but he is one target. He now has a sub-600 OPS with the Mets, but he wasn't really immediately ready for the Show anyway. He is better defensively than Pinto and has a similar bat potential. I believe he is about a 60-something prospect right now.

 

Of note: the Twins have Kurt Suzuki, who actually would be a nice backup catcher for a number of teams interested in the playoffs. They also have Trevor Plouffe. They also have Eduardo Escobar. They also have Josmil Pinto, Oswaldo Arcia, Kennys Vargas, Alex Meyer, Kohl Stewart, Jorge Polanco, Danny Santana, Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, Casey Fien, Blaine Boyer, Mike Pelfrey, Tommy Milone, Travis Harrison, and Adam Walker who could all generate moderate interest in trade packages.

 

I think Arcia is the most likely trade piece to bring back anything of value that they would be open to moving.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Like Sano, Vargas, Arcia, Pinto types, yes, agreed. But, not Escobar, Nunez, types.

Yup.  I still have vivid memories of Phil Nevin, Jason Tyner, and Lew Ford getting postseason starts at DH. (Plus Kubel and Cuddyer getting thrown into such roles as rookies after barely a September call-up.)  We're obviously not near the postseason right now, but the longer you wait to try finding a permanent DH solution, the greater likelihood that you won't ever find one.

 

Now, I might be cool with it if the ultimate solution was likely Hunter (or Mauer), but I don't think we're trending that way.  The last two weeks, 11 games in AL parks, Hunter has only 3 DH games and Mauer 1.  Escobar 3, Nunez 2, Santana 1 -- all starts that could have easily gone to Vargas (who tallied only 1 DH start in that time) or Pinto, at least until Arcia returns.

 

I fear we're heading into the inexplicable "keeping the DH spot open for Hunter once or twice a week" territory.  Which isn't exactly made better with more DH starts for Escobar and Nunez, likely ~85 OPS+ utility players.

 

[laloesch]

 

Would the Dodgers have interest in Nolasco? Return him to the National League.

 

Look at the bigger picture. What starters will be dangled out there for teams to add/upgrade. Who might be too expensive (prospect wise) like Hamels. 

 

The Twins might find a taker for Noalsco, or Pelfrey or someone. Remember, we have Santana coming back. We have Milone and a couple of 5th guys in the minors. We may have Berrios as earlya s next season. Where do we put these guys?

 

Is Gibson the one you dangle. Is May the one you work to dangle next year?

 

 

No way you trade Gibson.  I would think first and foremost the guys to move are Mike Pelfrey and Ricky Nolasco.  A couple more good starts each and teams will notice.  That's when you put the "for sale" sign out at the curb.     

 

The Twins have a log jam of quality starters regardless of whether or not Alex Meyer is a bust (looks more and more likely).  Milone (should have been called back up already), Taylor Rogers (southpaw), Pat Dean and Berrios soon enough.  

 

Santana will return this season and that will push someone to the pen or AAA.  My guess is Pelfrey or May.  It's a dollars and cents / contract issue at this point.

[tobi0040]

 

 I think people really underestimate how few quality catchers there are in the majors and how difficult it is to upgrade the position.

 

I think most are vastly over-estimating the value of Suzuki, and really not contemplating how bad our catching depth is behind him.  Hermann's has an OPS of .456 in 11 games at catcher this year, a career OPS is .536 and is a one injury away from playing every day on a first place team.

 

Susac has done nothing but hit for three years.  And he is "solid" defensively, which is at least on par with Suzuki.  So I don't see how he is not an immediate upgrade over Suzuki.

 

As far as how hard it is to get one, the Giants already have one of the best in the game locked up for many years to come. He just turned 28, so my guess is they want to keep him catching another 2-3 years.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think for the rest of the season, there are about 20-25 catchers that would be clearly better than Suzuki, with perhaps 10-15 of those representing significantly more than a marginal upgrade. Of that number, 1 is potentially available for a price that would make sense, and even that is unlikely. And I'm also not entirely convinced that Susac would represent an upgrade over Suzuki this year or next if he had to play everyday.

 

I just did a quick and dirty look at catchers, by all means I would be interested in other alternatives, for the sake of discussion. I think people really underestimate how few quality catchers there are in the majors and how difficult it is to upgrade the position.

 

Oh, I agree, that is a very shallow pool. To me the issue I disagree with is posts saying that somehow having one of the worse players at a position is not an issue.

 

Frankly, I'm much more interested in Sano coming up to DH, and Buxton coming up to play CF, and some RP coming up.

 

But of all the positions where they have no depth, imo, C is that position.......

 

I do think Susac will be better than Suzuki, maybe as soon as this year. I'd deal for him, if the price was fair.

[tobi0040]

 

Oh, I agree, that is a very shallow pool. To me the issue I disagree with is posts saying that somehow having one of the worse players at a position is not an issue.

 

Frankly, I'm much more interested in Sano coming up to DH, and Buxton coming up to play CF, and some RP coming up.

 

But of all the positions where they have no depth, imo, C is that position.......

 

I do think Susac will be better than Suzuki, maybe as soon as this year. I'd deal for him, if the price was fair.

 

Even if Susac was about the same as Suzuki this year, he would be a huge upgrade over Hermann.  And we are over-using Kurt badly.  He has caught 960 games in his career.  119 last year as a 31 year old.  On pace for 130 this year as a 32 year old.  At these rates, I look for his numbers to decline as the year goes on.

[drjim]

 

Even if Susac was about the same as Suzuki this year, he would be a huge upgrade over Hermann.  And we are over-using Kurt badly.  He has caught 960 games in his career.  119 last year as a 31 year old.  On pace for 130 this year as a 32 year old.  At these rates, I look for his numbers to decline as the year goes on.

 

No one would dispute that Susac would be better than Herrmann, but at what cost? It is resource management above all.

[drjim]

 

Oh, I agree, that is a very shallow pool. To me the issue I disagree with is posts saying that somehow having one of the worse players at a position is not an issue.

 

Frankly, I'm much more interested in Sano coming up to DH, and Buxton coming up to play CF, and some RP coming up.

 

But of all the positions where they have no depth, imo, C is that position.......

 

I do think Susac will be better than Suzuki, maybe as soon as this year. I'd deal for him, if the price was fair.

 

I'm not sure people think catcher isn't an issue, more a realization that there aren't real alternatives to be had this year (or most seasons).

 

But yes, there are certainly areas that can provide an offensive upgrade, with DH the most obvious.

[tobi0040]

 

No one would dispute that Susac would be better than Herrmann, but at what cost? It is resource management above all.

 

If I only thought Susac was a backup at best, I wouldn't give up anything for him.  But you and I seem to disagree about his value vs. Suzuki, especially over the next 1.5 years and beyond. 

 

I only brought up Susac vs. Hermann to display another advantage of the trade.  Susac's  .770 career OPS versus Hermann's .536 OPS.  Our backup caught 44 games last year and is an injury away from getting the nod 80% of the time.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I only brought up Susac vs. Hermann to display another advantage of the trade.  Susac's  .770 career OPS versus Hermann's .536 OPS.  Our backup caught 44 games last year and is an injury away from getting the nod 80% of the time.

Another phrasing would be, Suzuki's career .689 OPS (and starting history) would be a big upgrade over Herrmann's career .536 OPS (and no MLB history as a regular) as backup/insurance.

[drjim]

 

If I only thought Susac was a backup at best, I wouldn't give up anything for him.  But you and I seem to disagree about his value vs. Suzuki, especially over the next 1.5 years and beyond. 

 

I only brought up Susac vs. Hermann to display another advantage of the trade.  Susac's  .770 career OPS versus Hermann's .536 OPS.  Our backup caught 44 games last year and is an injury away from getting the nod 80% of the time.

 

Suzuki would likely have a higher OPS than he does now if he played as infrequently as Susac. That's the rub with catchers, probably not wise to take their OPS over a small sample and assume they can keep it up over the rigors of catching a full season.

 

So yes, you are making assumptions about Susac and his ability to continue hitting, while catching a much larger workload, that I would not be close to accepting. He has caught only 11 full games so far this year (for comparison, Suzuki has already caught 37).

 

Probably the most underrated aspect of Suzuki by people who look solely at his numbers is his ability to catch almost every day. Not many catchers can do that and few, if any, that would be available in trade.