Article: Ryan believes Twins can contend in 2015

[jimmer]

http://m.twins.mlb.com/news/article/111418386/general-manager-terry-ryan-believes-twins-can-contend-in-2015

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Not terribly surprising. GMs are almost forced to say that kind of thing from a public relations perspective. If you put a gun to Ryan's head, I think he'd admit that 80 wins would make this season a success.

[amjgt]

"That's just the way I feel," Ryan said. "A lot of things have to happen for that to be a reality, I know that.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Not terribly surprising. GMs are almost forced to say that kind of thing from a public relations perspective. If you put a gun to Ryan's head, I think he'd admit that 80 wins would make this season a success.

Pretty much this. I think they can contend, but lots of things have to happen. I think this more like the 2001 Twins in my opinion. Probably more of a pretender at the end of the day, but as rookies transition in and other guys take steps forward, they'll be in it for a bit.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Pretty much this. I think they can contend, but lots of things have to happen. I think this more like the 2001 Twins in my opinion. Probably more of a pretender at the end of the day, but as rookies transition in and other guys take steps forward, they'll be in it for a bit.

I'd be thrilled with a repeat of 2001. Stay in it until August or so and then fade as the young guys struggle a bit and figure out how to adjust.

[Shane Wahl]

Too many things have to go very well for this to happen. Mauer, Nolasco, reliever X, Arcia, and Santana are the five biggest pivotal players to make for a very successful season (81+ wins).

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'd be thrilled with a repeat of 2001. Stay in it until August or so and then fade as the young guys struggle a bit and figure out how to adjust.

Actually I don't know that the young guys faded in 2001.  Guzman got hurt, but it seems our second-half swoon was mainly caused by the full season absence of a decent 5th starter (or even a reliable 4th starter after Mark Redman was hurt and then traded), with an assist from LaTroy Hawkins and maybe a couple other relievers.

 

And we'll see how many "young guys" get a chance to start out hot and then fade in 2015.  That young 2001 team was largely in place in 2000, particular the top 4 in the rotation (full season ERA+ figures of 116, 109, 106, and 93 in 2000, with Radke being the elder statesman at age 27).  Matt Lawton was easily our oldest regular on opening day 2001, and he had just turned 29, not much older than Plouffe is now.  Definitely no corresponding Hunter, Suzuki, Mauer, Nolasco, E. Santana, or Pelfrey.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also, that 2001 team didn't just "stay in it" until August.  Second best record in MLB as late as July 22nd (96 win season pace at that point).  And that was even after losing 7 of their previous 8 games.  On July 12th (after the ASB), we still had a 103 win pace!

 

Obviously we crashed hard from there, and pretty much eliminated ourselves with a 4 game sweep in Tampa followed by a 3 game sweep in Cleveland in mid-August, still finished with 85 wins, though (5th best record in the league!  Too bad no second wild card).

 

For the 2015 team, "staying in it" probably means an 85 win pace until August, and fading to .500 late.

[jimmer]

Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs occasionally writes for Fox Sports in a column called Just A Bit Outside.

 

Today he pointed out the the Twins project to have the 3rd hardest strength of schedule in baseball.

 

Of course, it's just a bunch of math hocom, so nothing to concern ourselves over, I'm sure.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs occasionally writes for Fox Sports in a column called Just A Bit Outside.

 

Today he pointed out the the Twins project to have the 3rd hardest strength of schedule in baseball.

 

Of course, it's just a bunch of math hocom, so nothing to concern ourselves over, I'm sure.

It makes sense that, since they are projecting us as a last place team, we'd also project to have a hard schedule -- we don't get to play ourselves!  Also, they have the worst MLB team projected to be the Phillies, and the NL seems more top-heavy in their projections too, so it would make sense that the last-place AL teams might have a tougher road.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Of course, it's just a bunch of math hocom, so nothing to concern ourselves over, I'm sure.

Preseason SoS doesn't mean a whole lot. Mid-season SoS, yes... But I struggle to put much weight into predicting the strength of teams before a game has been played.

[jimmer]

It makes sense that, since they are projecting us as a last place team, we'd also project to have a hard schedule -- we don't get to play ourselves!  Also, they have the worst MLB team projected to be the Phillies, and the NL seems more top-heavy in their projections too, so it would make sense that the last-place AL teams might have a tougher road.

yes, I get all that.  I was not surprised by the results Jeff posted at all.

[nicksaviking]

Not terribly surprising. GMs are almost forced to say that kind of thing from a public relations perspective. If you put a gun to Ryan's head, I think he'd admit that 80 wins would make this season a success.

 

I agree he'd say 80 wins was a success. 

 

But I also think that he believes the club could be a lot better.  I don't think he brings in aging vets like Santana and Hunter if he doesn't secretly think they can help the team make the playoffs.

 

I think most of us fans think that is a pipe dream though which is why I believe the team should have stayed the course and kept plugging away with young players, even at the expense of a few extra wins.

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins CAN contend. Just most likely won't. It isn't that hard to picture a scenario where the lineup is very strong and the rotation+bullpen are solid enough to keep them in the mix all the way to the end. It's key to remember that they have better reinforcements on deck right now than they have in any of the past four years. 

 

But yes, realistically, a .500 record would be a success.

[whydidnt]

Didn't Ryan basically say the same thing the last couple of years? I don't think it's really news that he says it. I just think he's either a very poor judge of baseball talent, or he doesn't want to tell the fans what he really thinks when they are trying to sell tickets. I think it's the latter, but tend to worry that perhaps it's the former.

[DJL44]

Yes, Terry Ryan said the exact same thing last year. He's full of it.

[Halsey Hall]

I doubt the Twins will be 2nd from the bottom in team ERA this year.  They could move up a big number of spots.  That alone means more wins.  I can see where Terry can expect a better season this year.  Injuries can change that though.

[stringer bell]

Sure the Twins can contend. I believe there is enough talent to contend, but they have so many question marks and so few sure things. Multiple things that are not certainties have to go their way. That said, I think the Twins have to start the season believing they are in the mix.

[Linus]

"That's just the way I feel," Ryan said. "A lot of things have to happen for that to be a reality, I know that.

Isn't this pretty much a realistic assessment of the Twins chances?  This is hardly BS or some horrible judge of talent.

[Willihammer]

It is a realistic assessment.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jabo-every-single-team-has-a-chance/
 

 

People have found this before, but just to re-state it, for the current record: one standard deviation of the difference between actual wins and projected wins is found here to be 8.7. That's a 17-win window, around a central projection, where a team could end up anywhere and it wouldn't even be the slightest bit strange. I know a 162-game season can feel interminable, but it's really not that long, mathematically. There's room for a lot of unpredictability.

 

Now, those Orioles, as you might remember, had a run differential that suggested something more like a .500 record. But for one thing, that would still be a huge success. For another thing, maybe there was something about those Orioles that allowed them to win so many extra games. And for a third thing, it really doesn't matter -- wins are wins, and fluky wins count the same as "deserved" ones. There's some chance of the Phillies having a good run differential. There's some chance of them lucking into a strong record despite a mediocre run differential. Both would be ways to contend.

 

The 2011 Diamondbacks beat their projection by 21 wins. The 2005 White Sox and the 2010 Blue Jays beat their projections by 20 wins. This kind of overachieving definitely isn't common, and of course it goes in both directions. The 2012 Red Sox, for example, undershot their projection by 22 wins. (That's a lot of wins.) But over 10 years, you're looking at eight teams who beat their projections by at least 16

edit: and by realistic, I mean exactly what Ryan said was realistic - a lot has to go right the Twins to make the postseason. Its unlikely, but definitely possible.

[Thrylos]

Not terribly surprising. GMs are almost forced to say that kind of thing from a public relations perspective. If you put a gun to Ryan's head, I think he'd admit that 80 wins would make this season a success.

 

By no means an 80 win season by any team that does not want to be treated as losers could be considered a "success".

[Thrylos]

Yes, Terry Ryan said the exact same thing last year. He's full of it.

 

Yes because they allow him to be full of it and they do not hold him accountable for losing.  Maybe this will be that season, if they continue down that path and the season ticket sales continue to go south