Nationals Starters Available?

[Willihammer]

The Nats have had some embarassing bullpen collapses in the playoffs. I could be mistaken but the obvious hole for them seems to be the back of the pen.

 

According to Steamer, they would lose 2 wins by swapping Strasburg for Roark. Perkins alone would almost make that up.

[notoriousgod71]

Why would anyone want to trade Buxton plus for a 2 year, injury concerned pitcher? If Ryan does that he deserves to fired immediately. Can you imagine a Mauer for a similar pitcher when Mauer was Buxton's age? Buxton is ans should be off-limits for anyone at this time. Same with Sano.

 

Yes, what if Ryan had traded Mauer for Prior?

 

That would have been hilarious.

[Halsey Hall]

I'd offer Plouffe, and if they didn't bite, I'd pass. 

[jimmer]

Someone might do it if a team is well on the way to 90 wins July and Strasburg is the piece needed to bring home the world series.

 

The Twins are not a good match. They can't trade the future for a very high side of 7 or 8 extra wins that Strasburg might provide the each of the next two years. Washington has no reason to accept anything less than a top 10 MLB prospect. 

If Strasburg provided an extra 7-8 wins per season for the next two seasons that would mean he was likely the best player in baseball.  One player isn't going to do that. Baseball isn't the kind of game where one guy is going to do that. Starting to really think Strasburg is one of the most over-rated pitchers in baseball.

[Physics Guy]

I have disliked Strasburg since he came into the league.  I just can't get past that to think about this rationally.

I agree and would rather have Zimmerman.  He should cost less in terms of prospects as well.  

[jorgenswest]

If Strasburg provided an extra 7-8 wins per season for the next two seasons that would mean he was likely the best player in baseball.  One player isn't going to do that. Baseball isn't the kind of game where one guy is going to do that. Starting to really think Strasburg is one of the most over-rated pitchers in baseball.

Exactly. Even the best player in baseball isn't going to make the Twins a 90 win team. Last year the best pitchers in baseball were between 7 and 8 WAR which is where I got the high side value.

 

They need to build a foundation of players and 2 years of Strasburg or 1 year of Zimmerman doesn't help enough long term. Buxton and Sano are the key. Keep them.

[jimmer]

Exactly. Even the best player in baseball isn't going to make the Twins a 90 win team. Last year the best pitchers in baseball were between 7 and 8 WAR which is where I got the high side value.

 

They need to build a foundation of players and 2 years of Strasburg or 1 year of Zimmerman doesn't help enough long term. Buxton and Sano are the key. Keep them.

Exactly. There were two pitchers with a WAR of 7.0 or higher and six pitchers at 6.0 or higher. Strasburg was at 4.3.  I completely agree with you.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't see the Twins being a match here. The Nats do have excess pitching. I heard on the radio yesterday that they guy getting bumped had an ERA under 3. No ideas on the peripherals and what not, but they have someone that someone would want. That said, the Twins would need to unload some of their longer contracts. The Nats have no use for Gibson, or May. They might be interested in stashing Meyer in the minors for a season or two since he has options. I'm sure they'd like Berrios too. However, they would need a guy under control for a while. Trading for a guy like Strasburg with 2 years left makes zero sense. If they were in a win now situation, absolutely, but until the Twins are legit contenders, it's better to let someone else overpay for this deal.

[sthpstm]

If they think they can sign him long term, I'd go for Zimmermann.  His agency has worked with the Twins on deals in the past so maybe they can get something done.  I'd offer May (pitching depth and/or bullpen piece), Stewart (high upside prospect) and Polanco (prospect to replace Desmond or Escobar in 2016/17 and infield depth).

I would say this is a better package than the A's got for Samardzija as it should be; Stewart > Semien but further off; May >/= McKinney but MLB ready; Polanco > the other 2 players.  Is this package strong enough to get a window for negotiations? 

[James]

If they think they can sign him long term, I'd go for Zimmermann.  His agency has worked with the Twins on deals in the past so maybe they can get something done.  I'd offer May (pitching depth and/or bullpen piece), Stewart (high upside prospect) and Polanco (prospect to replace Desmond or Escobar in 2016/17 and infield depth).

I would say this is a better package than the A's got for Samardzija as it should be; Stewart > Semien but further off; May >/= McKinney but MLB ready; Polanco > the other 2 players.  Is this package strong enough to get a window for negotiations? 

I guess that I don't see the point in this.  If you think you want to sign Zimmerman to a long term deal, and he's going to be a free agent next year, why would you give up other key prospects to get him now?  I understand you could negotiate an extension while he's here, but in your proposed scenario you're giving up three players for the right to talk to a guy for a year?   If you feel that you have a good relationship with his agent, and you're making him a priority, you do that next off-season.  

 

I just don't see a fit here on the Twins end.  

[Shane Wahl]

Trevor Plouffe, Eddie Rosario, Nick Burdi, and Tyler Duffey.

[DaveW]

Turning Ervin Santana and Kyle Gibson into true 3 and 4 starters would be huge.  Saw Reusse tweet the idea of Sano and Berrios for Zimmerman, and despite the fact I love Berrios as a prospect it makes a lot of sense and easily makes us a Wild Card contender this year.  

If TR trades Sano and Berrios for one year of Zimmerman (before he inevitably leaves) I might have to stop watching baseball all together. The good news, this will never happen, just Reusse being Reusse (i.e. nothing to pay attention to)

[DaveW]

I guess that I don't see the point in this.  If you think you want to sign Zimmerman to a long term deal, and he's going to be a free agent next year, why would you give up other key prospects to get him now?  I understand you could negotiate an extension while he's here, but in your proposed scenario you're giving up three players for the right to talk to a guy for a year?   If you feel that you have a good relationship with his agent, and you're making him a priority, you do that next off-season.  

 

I just don't see a fit here on the Twins end.  

Yup, any money you do "save" in this year window would likely be very minimal anyways. Certainly not worth giving up any top prospect for him.

[sthpstm]

I guess that I don't see the point in this.  If you think you want to sign Zimmerman to a long term deal, and he's going to be a free agent next year, why would you give up other key prospects to get him now?  I understand you could negotiate an extension while he's here, but in your proposed scenario you're giving up three players for the right to talk to a guy for a year?   If you feel that you have a good relationship with his agent, and you're making him a priority, you do that next off-season.  

 

I just don't see a fit here on the Twins end.  

Because you're negotiating with only a player and his agent.  A player who you just showed was really important to you because of what you gave up to get him.  You think that doesn't affect a players decision?  Unless they all lie at their press conferences, being made to feel important and wanted does matter.

You're also not competing with other teams to get him, and you never know what another team will offer.

I don't understand "I don't a see a fit" or similar comments that people have made.  He's an ACE. His acquisition sets up your rotation to be a strong point.  Hughes is now your #2, Santana your #3, and so on.  

I think people have fallen too much in love with prospects (and my scenario keeps 5 of our top 6 prospects depending on the rankings and doesn't give up either of the 2 top prospects). 

[nater79a]

Because you're negotiating with only a player and his agent.  A player who you just showed was really important to you because of what you gave up to get him.  You think that doesn't affect a players decision?  Unless they all lie at their press conferences, being made to feel important and wanted does matter.

You're also not competing with other teams to get him, and you never know what another team will offer.

I don't understand "I don't a see a fit" or similar comments that people have made.  He's an ACE. His acquisition sets up your rotation to be a strong point.  Hughes is now your #2, Santana your #3, and so on.  

I think people have fallen too much in love with prospects (and my scenario keeps 5 of our top 6 prospects depending on the rankings and doesn't give up either of the 2 top prospects). 

 

Yeah, I don't think the player cares much about what you gave up for him. The player and agent are going to do what's best for themselves. All about $$$. 

[RedBull34]

You realize 2 years of Fister was traded last year for... wait for it... Robbie Ray, Ian Krol, and Steve Lombardozzi.

All three players are already up and one is a SP.  This has much more value then a worrying RP who declined sharply and two RP low level prospects.

[sthpstm]

Yeah, I don't think the player cares much about what you gave up for him. The player and agent are going to do what's best for themselves. All about $$$. 

I don't believe that every player that gets up to the podium and says that the feeling of being wanted matters is lying. The dollars have to be there, but other factors can absolutely convince the right guys to give up their shot as maximum dollars.  Ask Phil Hughes or Glen Perkins or any number of others.

Zimmermann has expressed a willingness to forgo free agency.  Granted, it was in the context of the Nationals, but, that willingness is there.

[nicksaviking]

The only one under control long enough to fit into the Twins logical window of contention is Gio Gonzalez and he doesn't seem to be available.  I'd take Strausburg, but I'm not paying a kings ransom for two years of him then watch him walk right when this team looks like they might be ready.  With his injury history, you might not even be able to offer him a QO to recieve the comp picks.

 

Fister, Roarke? Blah, yuck.  The Twins have enough high contact pichers, they do nothing for me.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Nats have had some embarassing bullpen collapses in the playoffs. I could be mistaken but the obvious hole for them seems to be the back of the pen.

 

According to Steamer, they would lose 2 wins by swapping Strasburg for Roark. Perkins alone would almost make that up.

Not really embarrassing bullpen collapses.  Storen's just had two blown playoff saves, that's about the extent of it.

 

And the Twins don't have any certified playoff relievers to offer.  Why would the Nationals trust Perkins more than Storen?  Much less need Reed/Cederoth -- just eyeballing the Nationals prospect list, they already have a few similar power arms in their system, they're not that desperate.

 

And even if that's what the Nationals were targeting, they certainly wouldn't have to give up a stud starting pitcher to get it.  Steamer's projected WAR for Strasburg may not seem like much, but it is 8th best in all MLB, virtually equal to that of Scherzer who was the consensus best FA on the market.  And the projected WAR is heavily regressed -- the 8th best SP fWAR in MLB last year was almost 50% higher than the 8th best projected WAR for 2015.  Strasburg is one of the few MLB SP with a realistic shot at a 7 WAR season.  That has immense value, more than most bullpens in fact.  (Best team bullpen fWAR last year?  Royals at 5.9)

 

 

And Steamer only projects Perkins at 0.8 WAR.

 

Furthermore, you're not accounting for any benefit Roark could provide out of the pen himself (or replacing one of the three "lesser" Washington starters).

[Otto von Ballpark]

You realize 2 years of Fister was traded last year for... wait for it... Robbie Ray, Ian Krol, and Steve Lombardozzi.

A few things:

 

1) One isolated past trade doesn't mean much. Would you have suggested a team could have plucked JJ Hardy from the Orioles in 2012 for another Jim Hoey type?

 

2) I think part of Detroit's motivation was they didn't believe in Fister's track record continuing, but that track record is now longer and stronger (at least if you like ERA more than FIP)

 

3) Robbie Ray might have more value than we realize. The Tigers just flipped him for a likely MLB SP, and the Yankees picked up a potential starting SS in that same 3-way trade.

[Willihammer]

Not really embarrassing bullpen collapses.  Storen's just had two blown playoff saves, that's about the extent of it.

 

And the Twins don't have any certified playoff relievers to offer.  Why would the Nationals trust Perkins more than Storen?  Much less need Reed/Cederoth -- just eyeballing the Nationals prospect list, they already have a few similar power arms in their system, they're not that desperate.

 

And even if that's what the Nationals were targeting, they certainly wouldn't have to give up a stud starting pitcher to get it.

Yeah I'm just eyeballing their system too. I'm looking at their 40 man. I'm throwing out names based more on that and less on calculating a perfect 1:1 swap of Steamer-projected surplus values. I think history shows that a win-now team will sometimes make trades that leave Steamer and the rest of us a little perplexed. Everyone on thish board has been assuming it would take Buxton or Sano just to get the conversation started, but what if this is another one of those cases?

[Shane Wahl]

Anyone care to evaluate my offer of Plouffe, Rosario, Burdi, and Duffey?

 

I think the Nationals would be a bit foolish to pass that up. There are four guys to fill in for needs on that team either immediately or in the near future.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Yeah I'm just eyeballing their system too. I'm looking at their 40 man. I'm throwing out names based more on that and less on calculating a perfect 1:1 swap of Steamer-projected surplus values. I think history shows that a win-now team will sometimes make trades that leave Steamer and the rest of us a little perplexed. Everyone on thish board has been assuming it would take Buxton or Sano just to get the conversation started, but what if this is another one of those cases?

Whatever your criteria, I think it's wrong.    I can't recall a single instance of an ace pitcher being traded for current relievers (much less mostly minor league relievers), which is what you proposed.

 

Could it happen without Sano or Buxton, due to the specific needs of Washington?  Perhaps.  But the significant need would have to go way beyond "general bullpen help" if you are talking about receiving a top 10 MLB SP (Steamer projection) in return.  Throw in a starting second baseman in Dozier and then maybe you have a conversation starter.

[gunnarthor]

Anyone care to evaluate my offer of Plouffe, Rosario, Burdi, and Duffey?

 

I think the Nationals would be a bit foolish to pass that up. There are four guys to fill in for needs on that team either immediately or in the near future.

Technically, they can't trade Burdi yet (they could do it as a PTBNL but that's so rare, I really only know of it in one instance).  And the Nats would be trading for now, not later.  So waiting half a year for Burdi to be available (where he could get hurt) doesn't really work for them.  Duffey has no trade value.  Rosario is maybe a top 10 Twins prospect but might not be that high.  He really had a bad year and hasn't shown the ability to hit in AA yet. He has attitude issues and a drug suspension.  He did have a good AFL but I think he has no value to other teams.  So it's 3 years of Plouffe for 1 year of Zimmerman?  Doesn't really fit for them.  They have Rendon at third and he's better than Plouffe.  I don't think that trade works.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Anyone care to evaluate my offer of Plouffe, Rosario, Burdi, and Duffey?

 

I think the Nationals would be a bit foolish to pass that up. There are four guys to fill in for needs on that team either immediately or in the near future.

I also think that's a fairly weak offer.  Plouffe requires moving arguably their best position player (Rendon) off of his natural and probably best position.  If they already had Plouffe in the system, maybe they'd do that, but why would they seek that out as a solution?  I am pretty sure they could trade an ace SP for an actual second baseman if they wanted to go that route.

 

Rosario a useful piece to have, but his stock is low right now.  He's actually not all that good of a bet to contribute in MLB in the near future.  And Duffey is a low-upside throw-in.

 

Burdi is interesting, but even he's not that close to contributing in MLB, at least not as far as a present-day contender is concerned.  If the Nationals want immediate MLB bullpen help, and they are willing to part with an ace SP, they could probably do a lot better.