Ryan on Nolasco for 2015

[Physics Guy]

Apparently Terry Ryan understands the idea of "sunk cost".  From the StarTrib:

 

“I take exception to that statement. If he’s one of the best five starters when we break spring training next year, then he’ll have one” of the spots, Ryan said. “Forget the contract — that has nothing to do with guys getting innings. Guys get innings because of quality.”

 

Whether he follows this is another question.  Here's a link to the entire story:

 

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/276411371.html

 

[gunnarthor]

I said before that I think he somehow trades Nolasco this offseason and I'll stick to that.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Our pitching philosophy, night after night, seems to be "attack the zone", throw strikes," pound the strike zone.

 

When things go wrong and the pitching is bad, Gardy's explanation is "he left his pitches out over the plate."

 

So confused.

 

Anybody else looking forward to another year of this?

[Kwak]

My impression is that when Nolasco returned from his "elbow issue" he started throwing many more curveballs and not so many cut FBs.  His results improved.  Play better defense behind him--and his results with furthe improve. 

 

Watching Arcia in the OF is painful.

[kab21]

Our pitching philosophy, night after night, seems to be "attack the zone", throw strikes," pound the strike zone.

 

When things go wrong and the pitching is bad, Gardy's explanation is "he left his pitches out over the plate."

 

So confused.

 

Anybody else looking forward to another year of this?

 

There's the center of the plate and their are the edges of the plate.  The Twins might want their pitchers to pound the strike zone but they don't want them to miss the edges and leave a pitch in the middle of the plate. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Whether he follows this is another question.

This is pretty standard tough talk that actually means very little in practice.  Remember "no scholarships"?

[iTwins]

He's said a lot of the right things over the past few years, but the issue is following through.

 

Sure, the 5 best guys should get a rotation spot - just like the 25 best guys should make the roster. Yet, when push comes to shove it seems like we're getting justifications for Bartlett making the team, contrary to whatever had been said previously.

 

TR has said the pitching isn't good enough. Last year he made an effort to fix that. Hopefully he continues to back up his statements this offseason.
 

(Throw my hat into the "Nolasco is traded this offseason" ring as well. Bad contract for bad contract - perhaps a deal with the Dodgers...)

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm really trying to figure out how Ryan would move Nolasco this offseason. That would be impressive. There aren't going to be suitors for him, even if the Twins ate a bunch of salary.

[Boom Boom]

I'm really trying to figure out how Ryan would move Nolasco this offseason. That would be impressive. There aren't going to be suitors for him, even if the Twins ate a bunch of salary.

 

I think the Twins would have to take Carlos Silva and Milton Bradley for him.

[Willihammer]

Probably didn't help that Nolasco didn't cover first on the grounder to Parmelee last night.

[Winston Smith]

Trade him to the Pirates and he'd win the Cy Young next year.

 

Not really sure what they could trade him for or what GM would take that chance. He's been a mediocre pitcher at best over his career, until this year, so what would be the upside to trade for him? At best he is ok or we're stuck with this bad contract if he stinks for the next 3 years. Maybe a GM looking to get fired might do a trade. 

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

A National League team would make a trade to acquire Nolasco if they could give up a contract they wanted even less than Nolasco. It would not be a pretty sight, whatever came back to the Twins for Nolasco.

[Kwak]

Dateline:  September 26, 2015  The Houston Astros are celebrating winning the National League Central Division.  They were led by their recently acquired start pitcher Ricky Nolasco.  Nolasco, (20-5) was acquired from the MInnesota Twins in December 2014 for some bits and pieces, with the Twins agreeing to pay half of Nolasco's salary.

[DJL44]

with the Twins agreeing to pay half of Nolasco's salary.

 

There's the tipoff that this is a fantasy

[Otto von Ballpark]

Not to pile on about the unlikelihood of a Nolasco trade (or the unfathomable ugliness of its potential return), but all 3 players the Dodgers gave up for him last summer were waived/DFA'd within the year (some multiple times, I think).  And that was Nolasco, having the second best season of his career, owed only ~$5 mil or so for the next 3 months.

 

Oh, and the Marlins actually sent an international bonus slot to the Dodgers too.

[Platoon]

So what to do? 4 yrs of 90 losses! This last year with a new All Star catcher, new SS, CF, DH, 1B, and all new SP'ers. The only things not new? Arcia, Dozier, Plouffie, and the results. So the only constant over the last 4 years is the FO and the field staff (mostly).

 

If TR announces Gardy stays because he was yet again not supplied with adequate personell, it should be accompanied with his (TR) resignation. If that is not the case then Gardy needs to go. But somehow, something has to change. This is getting silly!

[Rosterman]

Something ahs to change. Hey, maybe the Twins can trade Nolasco for Kemp? Nolasco has shown some stuff his past few outings. But the Twins need to ante up and get another stopper. Lester, Lester, Lester. But...who wants to come and play here right now, where the writing on the wall says we are rebuilding with our prospects who may/may not pan out. For every Santana there is a Hicks. For every Arcia there is a Vargas. The Twins do need a puncher in the lineup. Yes, if Plouffe and Dozier hit 20 homers, If Arcia hit 40, if Vargas hit 30...we might have something going.

 

If Nolasco pitches to 16-10. like Hughes, he will be valuable to someone at $12 million a year, so the best bet it to hope you can flip him at trading deadline, since he comes with a reasonable contract for two more seasons. 

 

My bigger concern is Pelfrey. He's taking a roster spot. Assume no one wants him (a la Blackburn) and waive him out to the minors. Or hope no one else wants him. But tack his $5 million for 2015 into the profits made from 2014 (they did draw surprisingly well and have had to make some monies). 

 

Twins, spend again. But maybe you need to look at the people doing the spending and make changes there. And the people telling pitchers to pitch to contact and batters to make contact, and re-e-valuate everything, top down, with this organization before it is too late. 

 

Twins slogan in 2015 "On Your Drive To Target Field, Come See the New Vikings Stadium!"

[kab21]

It's mission impossible to trade Nolasco right now.  I'm still convinced that he's going under the TJ knife.  It would be interesting to know if the Twins have an insurance policy on him like the had with Nathan IIRC.

 

But a Nolasco for Crawford trade straight up is interesting.  Crawford is owed more money (about 8M/yr) but he's actually a decent player (not a superstar like he was).  If Nolasco's value is zero (or negative) then that 12M is a sunk cost and I would sign Crawford for 3/24 if he was available on the open market.  The team gets a better OF defender and a guy that could bat #1/2.  The Dodgers would probably be all for it since they have too many OF'ers and they save money that can be squandered elsewhere.

[Mike Sixel]

Pitch to contact + awful defense = lots of runs.......hard to understand how that is not understood here (or, maybe it is, and unlike Pitts or KC, they can't figure out how to execute).

[tobi0040]

This is pretty standard tough talk that actually means very little in practice.  Remember "no scholarships"?

 

Pretty much the equivalent of saying, "no offense", then saying something really offensive.

[laloesch]

I'm really trying to figure out how Ryan would move Nolasco this offseason. That would be impressive. There aren't going to be suitors for him, even if the Twins ate a bunch of salary.

 

I just don't see it happening.  He is rock bottom value right now.  Ryan would have to eat a TON of that salary to get him out of the Twin Cities. 

[iTwins]

Dateline:  September 26, 2015  The Houston Astros are celebrating winning the National League Central Division.  They were led by their recently acquired start pitcher Ricky Nolasco.  Nolasco, (20-5) was acquired from the MInnesota Twins in December 2014 for some bits and pieces, with the Twins agreeing to pay half of Nolasco's salary.

 

The Astros moved BACK to the NL Central in this mythical world?

[Willihammer]

Nolasco for B.J. Upton?

I still can't believe how Upton tailed off. No injuries in that time frame apart from a 21-day stint for a groin pull. Would anyone have any interest in him as a reclamation / swap?

[IndyTwinsFan]

Like it or not, I have a hard time not seeing him in the starting rotation coming out of spring training next year, barring injury.  Regardless of what TR says, my viewpoint is that there is a greater likelihood he will need to pitch his way off the rotation rather than pitching his way on to it.  To me, that's a huge difference.  Given the likely state of our starting pitching at the beginning of next year, I just don't see him on the outside looking in.

 

That being said, I also don't foresee a trade, unless some team just knocks TR's socks off.  However, I think that is highly unlikely.

[jharaldson]

It's mission impossible to trade Nolasco right now.  I'm still convinced that he's going under the TJ knife.  It would be interesting to know if the Twins have an insurance policy on him like the had with Nathan IIRC.

 

But a Nolasco for Crawford trade straight up is interesting.  Crawford is owed more money (about 8M/yr) but he's actually a decent player (not a superstar like he was).  If Nolasco's value is zero (or negative) then that 12M is a sunk cost and I would sign Crawford for 3/24 if he was available on the open market.  The team gets a better OF defender and a guy that could bat #1/2.  The Dodgers would probably be all for it since they have too many OF'ers and they save money that can be squandered elsewhere.

 

I would personally be interested in a Nolasco for Edwin Jackson trade.  Cubs would get Nolasco who last was good in the NL and has better BB/9, ERA, FIP, and xFIP numbers than Jackson.  Twins would get Jackson who has less money (2y/$26 vs 3y/$37) and has a better K/9 number.  I would also say the one skill that Gardy and Anderson have shown is improving a pitchers walk rate and Jackson is a guy who could use a reduction to make him valuable again.

[tobi0040]

Nolasco for B.J. Upton?

 

I still can't believe how Upton tailed off. No injuries in that time frame apart from a 21-day stint for a groin pull. Would anyone have any interest in him as a reclamation / swap?

 

Outside of a horrible contract for horrible contract like this one, I put the chances of a Nolasco trade at 0.0%. 

 

We were the high bidder or Nolasco last year, now we want another team to pay more than they were willing to pay last year after the performance and injury concern that was 2014. Or, equally as unlikely, we want Terry Ryan to spend $5M a year to have Nolasco pitch for someone else, then have to go out in the market and overpay agan to replace him.

[Seth Stohs]

The Twins aren't going to trade Nolasco. His value is too low. They wouldn't get anything for him and the Twins won't/shouldn't pay anything of it if they did. 

 

Nolasco has a track record to be a solid #3 starter. I say let him come back next year and start over. Forget this year. Lots of pitchers have a bad year, an anomoly. He's been solid for a long time. He'll make the adjustments. 

 

And, of course he's going to be in the starting rotation to start next season. There's no question about that, and that's the way it should be.

[nicksaviking]

Nolasco for B.J. Upton?

 

I still can't believe how Upton tailed off. No injuries in that time frame apart from a 21-day stint for a groin pull. Would anyone have any interest in him as a reclamation / swap?

 

If Anderson stays, I'd swap the two.  If Anderson is gone, I'd roll the dice that Nolasco is the better bet to bounch back.

 

And for the record, I do believe that Ryan may be able to view the contract as a sunk cost.  It would have been unheard of a decade ago, but the Twins have basically eaten the Blackburn and Marquis contracts the last couple years and would likely do the same to Pelfrey if needed.  This is on a larger scale, but the idea isn't new to the Twins. 

 

However, Nolasco's previous track record will likely work in his favor even if his contract is overlooked completely.  Prior to this year, he was pretty consistant.  Regardless of how he pitched in 2014, if he were a free agent, surely any team that signed him would give him another shot at starting.  We have a sour taste still in our mouth so our objectiveness is likely skewed, but had Nolasco stunk it up in Milwaukee all year but the Twins somehow ended up with him for no additional costs, we would probably welcome the chance at a rebound campaign. 

[Seth Stohs]

And, because I hate this hatred for a phrase " pitch to contact" more than just about anything. There isn't a team in the major leagues that isn't telling their pitchers to throw strikes and hit the corners. The Twins don't hate strikeouts. They do hate walks. I don't think this is unusual. 

 

The Twins have had pitchers in recent years who miss the corners and get hit hard. And, as others have pointed out, the defense isn't real strong to go with that. There will be hits. 

 

Hughes is doing what the Twins would want... He throws strikes. Most of the time they're on the corners. He's pitching to contact yet he has the ability to miss bats. He is striking out 8.1 per nine, the most he's had in 5 years (since he was a bullpen guy). 

 

Trevor May can miss bats, but after his first couple of starts, he couldn't throw strikes. They returned the focus to throwing strikes. He got hit a bit, made some adjustments, and now he's striking out quite a few too. In his first three starts, he walked 13 and struck out 3 in 9 innings. In his 6 starts since, he has walked 8 and struck out 34 in 30.2 innings. I bet the Twins are just fine with those ratios... I bet every team in baseball would agree.

 

It's not that they don't want strikeouts. Pitchers just have to have the ability to do that. I'm no Rick Anderson supporter, but "Pitch to Contact" is not the issue. 

[Linus]

Nolasco won't be traded, nor should he be.  He stunk this year but has proven to be a viable pitcher at the big league level for many years.  The Twins need all the pitching they can get so its foolish to trade him even if he isn't a great value (who cares about the contract; we are not paying it and the Twins have plenty of payroll space).

 

Bottom line is that he will be one of the five best starters coming out of spring training - even if he slots in at number 5.  He could easily come back next year and go 14-12 which would be a vast improvement over some of the pitchers we've run out there recently.

 

Plus, I think the Twins have a chance to be good next year.  They are finally scoring some runs and their fielding is fine in the infield and can be upgraded in the outfield.  If we can land an upper end pitcher and an outfielder we've got a chance.