FA Pitching Targets

[Physics Guy]

I was thinking about the discussion on:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/15196-2015-starting-rotation-opening-day/

 

That thread seems to have stalled, so I'd like to go one step further.  A large number of posters, me included, seem to be clamoring for the Twins to sign a starter to take our #1 slot.  In saying this, I don't necessarily mean an "ace", just somebody who might be better than Phil Hughes this year.  In looking at the FA for the upcoming offseason, I found four candidates:

 

Max Scherzer

Jon Lester

James Shields

Ervin Santana

 

When I first thought about it, I immediately took the top two off my list.  I didn't see us competing with the big market teams for the top guys.  After reading this (ESPN Insider required), I changed my mind:

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/buster-olney/post/_/id/8048

 

Buster suggested that the Yankees may not be in the market due to the large number of big contracts they are saddled with.  Boston strikes me as the only team who might pay the big money, most likely for Lester.  Will the Tigers still offer Scherzer the 6yr/$144 M offer they did before the season if there is nobody else to drive up his price?  Might there be some bargains at the top of the FA market?  If the Yankees and Dodgers aren't buying, the market changes significantly.  I still highly doubt Terry Ryan would pay the money for the top two, but maybe the prices for the next two also end up lower than expected.  I'm curious what types of contracts people think these four pitchers will receive and would that put them in the range of what the Twins might be willing to spend.  My guess:

 

Scherzer 6/144   Don't see Tigers increasing their offer.  Same money as Hamels, close to Greinke.

Jon Lester 6/132

Shields 5/80

Santana 4/56

 

 

[Badsmerf]

I say go big or go home. The twins have the bats coming up in the next few years too score runs, they need a true Ace pitcher to lead the rotation. Not only to get the playoffs, but to win when they get there. Ace, followed by Hughes and Gibson isn't too bad at all. Hope for improvement from the other two spots in the rotation and game on.

[Brandon]

Who I want them to go after:

Santana or Shields

 

Who they'll go after:

Liriano

Chris Young

Kyle Kendrick

Aaron Harang

Chris Campuano

Edison Volquez

Roberto Hernandez

 

The Twins will go after the guy that almost can put it together cause they cost about 1/3 per season with many fewer seasons then the top guys will get.  Never mind that the rotation is the only area really needing help and we have plenty of payroll space and that the only other kinda area Left Field has internal options (Parmelee, Hicks, and Schaefer. 

[gunnarthor]

Obviously, Scherzer is the dream but I don't think the Twins will sign him.  Of the top four, Shields makes some sense since I think he feels the most like a "Twins pitcher."  But the reality is that most pitchers aren't that good in their mid-to-late 30s and Ryan isn't going to make that kind of commitment.  

 

I still think Ryan somehow trades Nolasco this offseason, signs another Correa like pitcher and goes with a rotation of Hughes, Gibson, Milone, May, FA/Meyer out of ST.

[DJL44]

Scherzer 6/144 

Jon Lester 6/132

Shields 5/80

Santana 4/56

 

 

 

Of those options I like the Ervin Santana contract the most. He's younger than Shields, more likely to be good through all four years and much less costly for approximately the same production. That isn't much more than they gave Nolasco and Santana is actually good. They would be fine with Hughes and Santana at the top of the rotation.

 

Scherzer and Lester are looking at HoF pitcher money and I don't think they're that good. Shields is declining and his numbers are being held up by the very good Royals defense.

[Winston Smith]

I don't see Terry spending on any large contracts, Nolasco or bigger, this year. Maybe a Hughes type contract but I have no idea who that would be.  Imo payroll will not top 80m this year.

 

Counting on a repeat from Hughes might be a mistake because his career has been good to very good in even years and bad in odd years.

[kab21]

I would love to spend big but I would be thrilled if they splurged for Ervin.  I wish they would have done in last year and offered him Nolasco's contract late in the offseason.  I would simply not post on here for weeks if they signed Lester or Scherzer.  It's the aggressive move that they could make but won't consider.

 

A sleeper in FA.  Jake Peavy.  I think he could have a sneaky good rebound getting out of Fenway for 2/25. 

 

It's kind of funny when someone draws conclusions based on even/odd year data.  Be critical of Hughes's overall inconsistency throughout his career but even/odd year is meaningless.

[RealTwinsFan357]

I don't really have interest in Shields, I feel like by the end of the contract he won't be as effective as he is now (I could be wrong, but that's just my gut reaction). Lester would be my first choice (and he's the only one guaranteed not to receive a qualifying offer). For me, it comes down to what we do with the slew of ineffective pitchers we have (Nolasco, Pelfrey, possible Milone). Alex Meyer is the only major league-ready pitcher that has the chance to be a front-end starter. I think the Twins absolutely need to see what he has next year. If signing any of these guys prevents that, then we shouldn't sign more pitchers. If we get rid of Nolasco, Pelfrey, and Milone, then I would love to see a rotation of Lester, Hughes, Gibson, Meyer, May. This gives May some time to prove he can be a major league starter and gives Meyer a chance to develop into something special. We would still have players like Pino, Johnson, Darnell, and Gilmartin available for callups if somebody gets injured.

[nicksaviking]

I don't see any of those guys as fits.  Both Lester and Scherzer are already on the wrong side of 30 and especially with Scherzer, there is a ton of wear on those arms.  I don't like pitch counts, but man, you'd think the Tigers would be a little weary of letting Scherzer throw 120 pitches every five days after seeing what's become of Verlander.  Free agent money usually gets silly, but at some point, 29 GM's are going wise up.  It could finally be this year...but probably not.  Still, not interested in either for a 6-7 year commitment, regardless of the money.  I'd like long term commitments for our younger pitchers if any become worth it, or if they could trade for another youthful arm but I don't want one with 1,200 innings already under their belt.

 

I've always been a Shields fan, but he'll be 33 next year and his K numbers have dropped significantly the last two years which worries me.  At the pace he's at, his K% will be at traditional Twins levels next year and do any of us really want to see another arm that comes to Target Field and sees a significant reduction in swings and misses?

 

I also have little interest in Santana except on a short term deal.  He's just the opposite of Shields as his K numbers have increase significantly.  However his BB% has also jumped as has his H/9.  One would have to expect the K numbers to strongly dip again once back in the AL while there is no reason to assume the BB and hit numbers would decrease.  Oh, plus there's the fact that he's going on about year five with a partially torn UCL.  Maybe he will never have an issue with that, but it seems to me at some point some team's going to be holding that bomb when it finally detonates.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Of those options I like the Ervin Santana contract the most. He's younger than Shields, more likely to be good through all four years and much less costly for approximately the same production.

Not sure how you arrived at those conclusions.

 

Ervin Santana is indeed younger than Shields, but only by 1 year.  He's also averaged about 30 fewer IP than Shields *per season* since their respective rookie years, at notably worse effectiveness (career 99 ERA+ vs 111).  Take just their last 4 seasons and the difference is even more stark: 100 ERA+ vs 125 (with the same 30 IP per season advantage for Shields).

 

Santana has also been much more inconsistent, with 3 of 9 seasons well below average since his rookie year, as compared to Shields who has just 1 of 8.

 

Not to say that Ervin Santana can't be a good pick-up at less cost, but his history does not suggest he approximates Shields' production.

[Physics Guy]

Of those options I like the Ervin Santana contract the most. He's younger than Shields, more likely to be good through all four years and much less costly for approximately the same production. That isn't much more than they gave Nolasco and Santana is actually good. They would be fine with Hughes and Santana at the top of the rotation.

 

Scherzer and Lester are looking at HoF pitcher money and I don't think they're that good. Shields is declining and his numbers are being held up by the very good Royals defense.

I agree that Santana's contract would be the most palatable for Ryan.  What do you guys think about those projections?  Too high, too low, about right?

 

I also am not sure I want the Twins going after Scherzer and Lester for those amounts.  Interesting point made earlier about Scherzer.  Either he signs with Detroit or they give him a qualifying offer.  That almost undoubtedly takes him off the table for the Twins.  Lester is maybe possible if the Red Sox decide not to get in on the bidding and his contract stays under $100 M.  My favorite target is Shields.  He is one year older than Santana, but has about the same number of innings under his belt.  He has shown much greater consistency than Santana.  If they can get him for 5/80M, I say go for it.  Once again, this may all be a pipe dream.  But I also was shocked when they gave Nolasco the contract they did.  They only have about $60M committed to next year.  SPEND THE MONEY!

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't see any of those guys as fits.  Both Lester and Scherzer are already on the wrong side of 30

How many good starting pitchers hit free agency younger than 30?

 

Phil Hughes is a rarity in that regard, and he only achieved FA so young because of awful age-25 and age-27 performances (that latter of which was his contract year).

 

By passing on free agency, you're basically putting all of our eggs in our minor league SP, only one of which looks to even be ready to debut in 2015.  And getting an under-30 starter in trade is going to cost a lot of talent that the Twins likewise can't afford to give up right now (if they even have it).

 

Free agency is just money.  Might as well spend it now, when we have so few salary commitments the next few years, and spend it on a potential ace (not another Nolasco!), even if they are not perfect.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't see it happening. The Twins would have to eat some contracts. Hughes has earned his job, and I think Gibson has as well. Nolasco and Pelfrey are under contract and I suspect Millone will be tendered too. May will get another shot, and I would be surprised if he ran away with it much like Gibson did this spring. Then you have Meyer, Gilmartion, and Berrios all sitting in AAA.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 Interesting point made earlier about Scherzer.  Either he signs with Detroit or they give him a qualifying offer.  That almost undoubtedly takes him off the table for the Twins. 

Why should a qualifying offer take him off the table?  The Twins top pick will be protected next year, so they would only lose a second-rounder.  Might give them an advantage over other teams bidding for him, who may have to give up a first-rounder (except Detroit, who obviously wouldn't give up anything).

 

And if you're going to fork over $100+ mil or whatever it takes, the draft pick is probably fairly meaningless (particularly a second rounder).

 

If you have any inkling to get a top-level SP on the FA market, you pretty much have to act now, right? By next year, your 1st round pick won't be protected (hopefully!), and you will be one year closer to Sano/Buxton/Meyer paydays.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't see it happening. The Twins would have to eat some contracts. Hughes has earned his job, and I think Gibson has as well. Nolasco and Pelfrey are under contract and I suspect Millone will be tendered too. May will get another shot, and I would be surprised if he ran away with it much like Gibson did this spring. Then you have Meyer, Gilmartion, and Berrios all sitting in AAA.

I agree that aggressively pursuing a FA starter is unlikely -- but Berrios is unlikely to be sitting in AAA at the beginning of the season.  I am guessing he starts back in AA for half a season, just like Liriano in 2004-2005.  (Which also means, if all goes well, maybe he debuts in MLB before the season is over! But he's not likely even on the depth chart to begin the year.)

 

Now, I don't think this is necessarily sound reasoning for sitting out the FA SP market -- Pelfrey is pretty worthless, and our best starter by far at the moment (Hughes) is only under contract for 2 more seasons.  Adding another arm might make a minor crunch to begin 2015, but that could be good, as it would force us to quickly judge the more mediocre arms in the group, and we will certainly need more SP over the course of the next few seasons.  And adding an arm at the top of the heap is certainly much better than piling up more around the bottom!

[Kelly Vance]

extend Hughes two years. Sign Shields. He mentors young pitchers and we need that, especially with Anderson and Gardy still around. Sign Santana if we can't get Shields.

 

Scrap Milone and Pelfrey. Promote Berrios and Meyer. They have the best stuff and gotta start in the show to get better. 

 

I am not sold on Gibson as a #2.  He is more of a #4 or 5

[DJL44]

Not sure how you arrived at those conclusions.

 

Ervin Santana is indeed younger than Shields, but only by 1 year.  He's also averaged about 30 fewer IP than Shields *per season* since their respective rookie years, at notably worse effectiveness (career 99 ERA+ vs 111).  Take just their last 4 seasons and the difference is even more stark: 100 ERA+ vs 125 (with the same 30 IP per season advantage for Shields).

 

Santana has also been much more inconsistent, with 3 of 9 seasons well below average since his rookie year, as compared to Shields who has just 1 of 8.

 

Not to say that Ervin Santana can't be a good pick-up at less cost, but his history does not suggest he approximates Shields' production.

 

Ervin Santana FIP over the last 2 years is about 3.60 over 390IP. Shields FIP over the last two years is about 3.50 over 450 IP. The big difference is innings.

 

That "one year younger" matters a lot, especially since the proposed Shields contract is a year longer. It's Santana ages 32-35 versus Shields ages 33-37. I wouldn't want to eat the last two years of that deal. I think both pitchers are likely to provide 3 good years over their respective deals and I'd rather pay $56M for three good years than $80M.

[Linus]

I am firmly in the camp of, if you sign somebody, they better be quality and not another depth move.  I like Shields the best because he has been so reliable.  I think an understated factor in this discussion is the possible wear on Scherzer's arm - that would have me a little leary.  Definitely would go hard after Lester and Shields; Santana not so much.

 

I am not at all worried about a logjam of pitchers.  If we end up with more than 5 effective starters we can trade one and what a nice problem to have.  I also think Pelfrey is a non-factor.  His contract is small enough they can just eat it if they have to.

[Mike Sixel]

I predict they sign a lesser guy for a year, hoping for a bounce back type (or first really good bounce) season. I actually expect little in FA this year, the classes (by position) are not ideal.....

[Boom Boom]

I'm mildly amused by the idea of a Liriano reunion, but I would guess that it wouldn't happen if Gardenhire and Anderson are still holding the keys to the car.

[Monkeypaws]

Shields may be getting up there in years, and his Ks might be on the decline, but watching him shut down the Tigers last night was a thing of beauty. The guy has an ace mentality.

 

Not sure what it would take in $$ and years, but I'd welcome him to the Twins in a heartbeat.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Ervin Santana FIP over the last 2 years is about 3.60 over 390IP. Shields FIP over the last two years is about 3.50 over 450 IP. The big difference is innings.

 

That "one year younger" matters a lot, especially since the proposed Shields contract is a year longer. It's Santana ages 32-35 versus Shields ages 33-37. I wouldn't want to eat the last two years of that deal. I think both pitchers are likely to provide 3 good years over their respective deals and I'd rather pay $56M for three good years than $80M.

FIP is neither adjusted for league (Santana is obviously not facing DHs much this year) or park (one-year park factors suggest ATL is benefiting pitchers, while KC slightly benefits hitters).  Also, Santana's FIP is almost at a career-best, over half a run lower than the mark he posted in the AL Central just last year -- while Shields' is merely in line with his career numbers.  Which would you like to bet on going forward?

 

Fangraphs uses FIP in their WAR calculations, and they have Shields beating Santana in WAR 7.8 to 5.6 over the past 2 seasons.  Even adjusting for the difference IP (which is important by itself), Shields is 20% ahead of Santana in fWAR.

 

If you are looking for an "ace" and you define that as a full season of roughly 120 ERA+ or better pitching, Shields has done it 5 times in 8 years, versus Santana only twice in 9 years.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also, signing Scherzer or Shields would take away a top pitcher from a division rival (the top two teams in the division right now, no less).  (Obviously, the teams can and would try to replace them, but it might cost more or take a year-plus to do it, and the replacement could easily be of lower quality too.)

[drjim]

I predict they sign a lesser guy for a year, hoping for a bounce back type (or first really good bounce) season. I actually expect little in FA this year, the classes (by position) are not ideal.....

 

I agree with this. But I think "lesser" does not necessarily mean Correia quality, more like Masterson, Brett Anderson, McCarthy. But the Twins will sign a free agent starter of some sort.

 

I always thought Shields was a good option, but he will probably go 5 years, that is a huge risk. And I never thought Scherzer or Lester were realistic options.

 

I also think there is less money in the payroll than we think. I didn't realize this until yesterday but corporate contracts are up after the season, they are going to take a huge revenue hit with those re-ups. There is certainly money for next year, but they might not have as much flexibility going forward as we assume.

[DJL44]

 Which would you like to bet on going forward?

 

Fangraphs uses FIP in their WAR calculations, and they have Shields beating Santana in WAR 7.8 to 5.6 over the past 2 seasons.  Even adjusting for the difference IP (which is important by itself), Shields is 20% ahead of Santana in fWAR.

 

The younger guy. Performance when the pitchers were rookies is irrelevant to me.

 

I don't like betting on any 36 or 37 year old pitcher three years from now. Very few pitchers have been worth a darn at age 37, let alone worth $16M. Radke and Santana didn't pitch after age 33. Cliff Lee is 35 and injured. Roy Halladay made it to 35. Roy Oswalt was awesome at 31 and 32 but cooked at 35. Bret Saberhagen pitched 15 innings after the age of 35. CC Sabathia is falling apart at 33. Bartolo Colon struggled from ages 33-36 before somehow coming back at 38. David Cone made it to 36 and he's borderline HoF.

 

There are very few counterexamples and they're nearly all HoF caliber pitchers - Kevin Brown, Tim Hudson, Maddux, Glavine, etc. Mark Buehrle could be another.

 

Do you think 3 years of Shields is worth $25M more to the Twins than 3 years of Ervin Santana? That's all I think you'll get from either pitcher. That's at least 4 WAR over 3 seasons.

[tobi0040]

I really don't see the Twins signing any of these four. I think "go big or go home" that someone stated is about right.  We don't need mediocre retreads, we have enough already.  These guys don't have the production or ceiling of Meyer or May. 

 

My preference of those four would be in this order:

 

Max

Lester

Schields

Ervin

 

I could see, maybe Ervin on a deal if that is what he gets (5% shot).  We as fans would just need to accept right now that in at least one of those years he is going to be terrible.  in 2-3 of those years he would make our pitching better so it would be OK with me.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The younger guy. Performance when the pitchers were rookies is irrelevant to me.

In most of my stats quoted above, I deliberately left out their rookie seasons.  And any way you slice their recent performance, Shields trumps Santana by a considerable margin (except, apparently, current year, non-park/league-adjusted FIP).  And again, their birthdays were only 12 months apart.  That kind of age separation means more in the aggregate than in a specific case like this.

 

I suppose Santana at 4 years for $X might be a better deal than Shields at 5 years at $Y, but either way, you're not signing them for what they provide in the 4th or 5th year.  It's the first few years that will make or break the deal, and by the numbers, Shields has much more "ace" potential for those years (and probably less variability of performance for those years too).  Both will cost the Twins a 2nd round draft pick.

 

The Twins were only willing to offer ~3/33 for Santana last offseason under similar circumstances, when he was a year younger, so I'm not sure they'd really be interested in 4/56 a year later.  I would hope Shields would warrant more interest, but I'm pretty sure they won't be in the market for any of these guys.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Do you think 3 years of Shields is worth $25M more to the Twins than 3 years of Ervin Santana? That's all I think you'll get from either pitcher. That's at least 4 WAR over 3 seasons.

He could be worth that much more.  Santana hasn't cracked 3 fWAR since 2008.  Shields hasn't been BELOW 3.5 fWAR since 2010 (and before that, his rookie year of 2007).

 

Put another way: Ervin Santana could help, but his likely upside is actually pretty comparable to likely upsides for the Twins internal prospects.  For a desperate team, that can still have value (see Nolasco), but if you are going to give up a draft pick, and spend $50+ million, shouldn't you at least get some more ace upside?  Otherwise, if you sign Santana, you are still very dependent on internal prospects in that regard.

 

We've got an average-ish pitcher (Gibson), a bit above average guy (Hughes), maybe another average guy if Nolasco can turn things around.  We've got a few prospects who have yet to do anything, and could well wind up average too.  We don't necessarily need more average from a big FA signing.

[pierre75275]

With Kris Johnson, Logan Darnell, Milone,  Sean Gilmartin, it makes no sense for  the Twins to go after Mediocore pitchers. They have a AAA staff full of them. With Trevor May, Phil Hughes, Gibson, Alex Meyer and Mike Pelfrey (like or not and I dont, we are stuck with him) It makes no sense for the Twins to go after anybody right handed. That really leaves Lester as the only real option to sign. I seriously, seriously doubt that the Twins will out bid Boston and Chicago for Lester. I also doubt with the starting options the Twins have they go out and sign a Corria type pitcher. They already have one...Pelfry. The Twins aren't going to sign any starting pitchers this year. That is my opinion. Next year is all about finding what sort of Depth they have. Meyer, May, Hughes, Gibson, and Nolasco is going to be your June rotation barring injury.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Scherzer 6/144   Don't see Tigers increasing their offer.  Same money as Hamels, close to Greinke.

Jon Lester 6/132

Shields 5/80

Santana 4/56

If that's how the contracts shake out, Shields looks like he could be the best value -- real ace potential at 2/3 the AAV, and maybe 60% of the total guarantee, of Scherzer or Lester.  He is a few years older, which is not without risk, of course, but it could be like buying a used luxury car rather than a brand new model.  (Heck, at those prices, you could get BOTH Shields and Santana for the price of Scherzer or Lester -- that would be an interesting debate!)