Suzuki: Extend or Trade?

[Winston Smith]

I think they need to extend Kubel, Colabello and Corriea first and maybe Willingham.

[kab21]

How did you take what I said and conclude that people want to make the Twins worse? Pinto has a much higher offensive ceiling than Suzuki, and I think it's best if he's playing the majority of the time. If the Twins want to keep Suzuki around to catch 1/3 of the time, fine, but it seems like they'd get much more value out of trading him for a player who has the potential to contribute in a meaningful way for the Twins next year and the year(s) after that. Suzuki has always been an okay catcher, but this offensive outburst is clearly outside his norm, and there's no reason to keep him around based on that.

 

Even if Pinto is playing 2/3 of the time then the backup is still playing 50-60 games. When you put in a guy like Fryer for those 50+ games then you make the team worse. And the Twins become even worse if ONE injury occurs at an injury prone position and Fryer/mystery man are catching all of the games. Having depth at catcher is essential.

[Brandon]

I say let it ride for another month or so. He is currently hitting like Joe Mauer so we did successfully replace Mauer's bat behind the plate for 1/10th the cost.....for now. but is all seriousness, Suzuki is not likely to keep up his current pace. But if he can hit .280 with a bunch of doubles and he is solid defensively then why not extend him for another season or 2. It's not like we have a bunch of options to replace him. other than Pinto who? or better yet I would rather have a Suzuki/ Pinto tandem then Pinto/ back up tandem. Suzuki seems to be well liked by the pitchers so I am ok with the extension. I don't think he would cost too much either 2 year for 10-12 million max.

[SwainZag]

Trade him at the deadline. I'm just going to assume his hitting is not going to keep up at current pace and realistically the Twins should be on the outside looking at around the deadline. Grab a prospect or two out of him while he has value and let Pinto start full time. The same thing they should have done with Willingham instead of extending him as well. Get value while value is there, especially for vets on short contracts, at least IMO.

[LaBombo]

Whenever a thirty year old .255 career hitter bats 50 points over that for a month or two to start the season, there has to be an interview question that explains what changes he made to cause real, sustainable improvement at an age where most hitters begin to decline, and many below-average ones fall off a cliff.

 

The answer to 'whaddaya doin' different?' has a list of usual suspects. Stance more open or closed, leg kick higher or lower, hand positioning, distance from the plate, various other 'adjustment' and 'approach' and 'stuff Bruno told me' generic fixes, offseason workout changes, higher fiber, brightly-colored batting gloves...

 

What you can't attribute it to is a current BABIP that, like his batting average, is about 50 points over his career norm, and that he is enjoying it while it lasts. That answer isn't as entertaining, and lends doubt to the theory that a backup catcher has suddenly morphed into a borderline All Star at an age where most of his peers begin to regress.

[ashbury]

Spoilsport.

[LaBombo]

A little more perspective from two Twins catcher slash lines, with BABIPs

 

Player A: .335/.384/.388 .386 BABIP

 

Player B: .209/.293/.261 .230 BABIP

 

If you chose to extend Player A, 30 year old Junior Ortiz, well, you just locked up Player B, who is Junior Ortiz the following season. His career slash was .256/.305/.305. Zukesie's career line: .255/.312/.377, with the advantage of over a thousand more PA's in his prime than Junior.

 

So offensively, Suzuki is very likely still just Junior Ortiz with a little power. Ortiz was a career backup who averaged about 200 PA's per season, like most backup catchers.

 

The message is that small samples are especially deadly when it comes time to consider contracts. If Zukes and the Twins are both happy with him as a backup for a couple of years and the contract reflects that role, it wouldn't be a terrible thing. But if the deal pays him like a .300 hitter instead of a guy batting .300 in May, huge mistake.

[cmathewson]

Whenever a thirty year old .255 career hitter bats 50 points over that for a month or two to start the season, there has to be an interview question that explains what changes he made to cause real, sustainable improvement at an age where most hitters begin to decline, and many below-average ones fall off a cliff.

 

The answer to 'whaddaya doin' different?' has a list of usual suspects. Stance more open or closed, leg kick higher or lower, hand positioning, distance from the plate, various other 'adjustment' and 'approach' and 'stuff Bruno told me' generic fixes, offseason workout changes, higher fiber, brightly-colored batting gloves...

 

What you can't attribute it to is a current BABIP that, like his batting average, is about 50 points over his career norm, and that he is enjoying it while it lasts. That answer isn't as entertaining, and lends doubt to the theory that a backup catcher has suddenly morphed into a borderline All Star at an age where most of his peers begin to regress.

 

Parker analyzed this. Stance less open. Quicker to the ball. More aggressive.

[LaBombo]

Spoilsport.

I also answered to 'Killjoy' until acquiring a mother-in-law named Joy.

[ashbury]

I also answered to 'Killjoy' until acquiring a mother-in-law named Joy.

 

Got a dog named Sport?

[LaBombo]

Parker analyzed this. Stance less open. Quicker to the ball. More aggressive.

Yeah, read it, and am a fan of his work. My point was that the 'It's not a hot streak, Player X totally changed stuff and improved at an age where most players don't' thing is as obligatory and infused with useful information and objectivity as a State of the Union address.

 

That's not a knock on Parker and his nice writeup, that's just how they almost always turn out. Happy for Zukes that he's off to a great start. But if he sustains anything like this level as the primary catcher until the trade deadline or beyond, it should create more questions about what's up with Pinto and the rebuild as it does about what to do with Suzie.

[LaBombo]

Got a dog named Sport?

Does 'Sporty Spice' count? No, but neighbors recently named theirs 'Kirby'. Felt awful that it wasn't considered in naming ours until remembering she's a girl dog. But spoiled, yes.

[drock2190]

Extend him while hes performing at his best?

 

Have we not learned? Just look at Joe Mauer (after his one power year), Doumit (he was doing well once to start the season). I can probably think up more ill advised extensions given time.

 

Looking back, there could have been significant savings there. Wait and see, is the best approach right now.

[stringer bell]

Extend him while hes performing at his best?

 

Have we not learned? Just look at Joe Mauer (after his one power year), Doumit (he was doing well once to start the season). I can probably think up more ill advised extensions given time.

 

Looking back, there could have been significant savings there. Wait and see, is the best approach right now.

Jared Burton.

[DocBauer]

In agreement with Kab and Jokin on several points.

 

Surprised and very, very pleased by Suzuki so far. No doubt he will have a difficult time maintaining what he's done so far. Even for this year, hard to see it continuing to next season. But not only has he done a fabulous for the team this year in many respects, including still allowing Pinto to come along, but there is no sense at this time that his trade value would be worthwhile.

 

FYI, Gladden made a comment over the weekend that Suzuki had some hand issues the past couple of seasons that may have limited his ability to hit properly. Now, in reference to Suzuki's trade value, I mean no disrespect to him. He's an experienced, quality veteran player well thought of. But I believe his value to the Twins is greater than what a return may warrant. I may be wrong, but a few down years hitting before this season, not a power hitter, could the Twins really receive a quality, high-end prospect to make a trade worthwhile?

 

I think the Twins have some pretty good C prospects in the lower minors, but not ready yet. And as I've stated, I'm a Herrman fan. Again, don't feel he's ready yet as he's done a lot of yo-yo-ing the past couple of seasons. Not only has Pinto been very productive this season, but I think he's been decent behind the plate. Hopefully he continues to grow and learn and is indeed ready to take over by next season. But you still need a solid backup. I'm not sure what it would take to extend Suzuki. But considering the Twins positive financial situation, it would hurt nothing to sign him for another year or two at another 2.5 or 3M per would it?

[Twins Twerp]

Whenever a thirty year old .255 career hitter bats 50 points over that for a month or two to start the season, there has to be an interview question that explains what changes he made to cause real, sustainable improvement at an age where most hitters begin to decline, and many below-average ones fall off a cliff.

 

The answer to 'whaddaya doin' different?' has a list of usual suspects. Stance more open or closed, leg kick higher or lower, hand positioning, distance from the plate, various other 'adjustment' and 'approach' and 'stuff Bruno told me' generic fixes, offseason workout changes, higher fiber, brightly-colored batting gloves...

 

What you can't attribute it to is a current BABIP that, like his batting average, is about 50 points over his career norm, and that he is enjoying it while it lasts. That answer isn't as entertaining, and lends doubt to the theory that a backup catcher has suddenly morphed into a borderline All Star at an age where most of his peers begin to regress.

Are you insinuating steroids? If he doesn't get caught...fine by me.

[LaBombo]

Are you insinuating steroids? If he doesn't get caught...fine by me.

I... what? Well played.

[Brock Beauchamp]

What you can't attribute it to is a current BABIP that, like his batting average, is about 50 points over his career norm, and that he is enjoying it while it lasts.

 

In the stats business, I believe that is called "gettin' lucky".

[nicksaviking]

Are you insinuating steroids? If he doesn't get caught...fine by me.

 

Great message for any kids out there.

[kab21]

A little more perspective from two Twins catcher slash lines, with BABIPs

 

Player A: .335/.384/.388 .386 BABIP

 

Player B: .209/.293/.261 .230 BABIP

 

If you chose to extend Player A, 30 year old Junior Ortiz, well, you just locked up Player B, who is Junior Ortiz the following season. His career slash was .256/.305/.305. Zukesie's career line: .255/.312/.377, with the advantage of over a thousand more PA's in his prime than Junior.

 

So offensively, Suzuki is very likely still just Junior Ortiz with a little power. Ortiz was a career backup who averaged about 200 PA's per season, like most backup catchers.

 

The message is that small samples are especially deadly when it comes time to consider contracts. If Zukes and the Twins are both happy with him as a backup for a couple of years and the contract reflects that role, it wouldn't be a terrible thing. But if the deal pays him like a .300 hitter instead of a guy batting .300 in May, huge mistake.

 

I don't get it.

 

Junior Ortiz had a .600 career OPS while Suzuki's career line is .690. Locking up a .600 career OPS hitter is a huge mistake (like you say). Locking up a catcher with .700ish line for 4-5M/yr for 1-2 more years is not a huge mistake. Especially when the depth behind Pinto/Suzuki would make Junior Ortiz look like a good hitter.

 

Nobody is saying that they should approach Suzuki tomorrow about an extension but this is something that should be done in the 2nd half of the season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Junior Ortiz had a .600 career OPS while Suzuki's career line is .690. Locking up a .600 career OPS hitter is a huge mistake (like you say). Locking up a catcher with .700ish line for 4-5M/yr for 1-2 more years is not a huge mistake. Especially when the depth behind Pinto/Suzuki would make Junior Ortiz look like a good hitter.

 

To be fair, age and league context do put Ortiz in a more favorable light: through age 30 (Suzuki's current age), Ortiz had an almost identical slash line, minus 50 points of SLG (and thus about 10 points of OPS+).

 

But yeah, Ortiz was born a backup catcher, so isn't a good comp.

 

It's been a fun ride with Suzuki so far. He is still showing the same low power as his 2011-2012 seasons, though, so I'm not sure how sustainable/repeatable it is. He's dropped his K's which is helpful (and a welcome sight on this team!).

[LaBombo]

I don't get it.

 

Junior Ortiz had a .600 career OPS while Suzuki's career line is .690. Locking up a .600 career OPS hitter is a huge mistake (like you say). Locking up a catcher with .700ish line for 4-5M/yr for 1-2 more years is not a huge mistake. Especially when the depth behind Pinto/Suzuki would make Junior Ortiz look like a good hitter.

 

Nobody is saying that they should approach Suzuki tomorrow about an extension but this is something that should be done in the 2nd half of the season.

Zukes hasn't had a wRC+ over 90 since 2009, and was below 70 the past two seasons. The only reason his career averages are substantively different from Junior's is that he had two nice seasons five and six years ago. Even with those two nice seasons, KS's wOba is only about 25 points higher than Junior's, and Ortiz was a pretty awful hitter.

 

He's riding a nice hot streak but giving him a two year extension as a reward for two or three good months... can't see it. And if he's still on his ridiculous pace in July or even August (unlikely), he'll want more money and/or years. Committing 10 million over 2 years to a guy who's a backup on a contender doesn't sound good. Not the end of the world, just not good use of finite resources.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Zukes hasn't had a wRC+ over 90 since 2009, and was below 70 the past two seasons. The only reason his career averages are substantively different from Junior's is that he had two nice seasons five and six years ago. Even with those two nice seasons, KS's wOba is only about 25 points higher than Junior's, and Ortiz was a pretty awful hitter.

 

He's riding a nice hot streak but giving him a two year extension as a reward for two or three good months... can't see it. And if he's still on his ridiculous pace in July or even August (unlikely), he'll want more money and/or years. Committing 10 million over 2 years to a guy who's a backup on a contender doesn't sound good. Not the end of the world, just not good use of finite resources.

 

Agreed. I only want Suzuki back if it's a one year deal with the expectation that Pinto will transition to the starting role during that period.

[LaBombo]

But yeah, Ortiz was born a backup catcher, so isn't a good comp.

The point of the Ortiz comparison was mostly to illustrate the folly of small sample size. Almost any hitter can look like two different players depending on which 200 plate appearances you look at.

 

Suzuki has been essentially a backup-level catcher for two years, and should be regarded as such unless he manages a full season well above replacement level. He's got a good start on that, but that's it.

[Boom Boom]

Other teams are not going to sell the farm for a hot-hand Suzuki and ignore his career stats up to this point.

 

You can discuss a new contract with him after the season... or go after another FA catcher. NBD.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm just glad we didn't put ink on the Colabello extension back in April.

[Kwak]

"What's the rush"? So few games played to ascertain if Pinto should be the #1 catcher, nor enough to ignore Suzuki's past and proclaim him the #1 catcher for the next 3-5 years. Trade? That depends on who is offered. A contender who has just lost their #1 catcher might yield a juicy return--but that scenario hasn't happened (yet). Patience.

[kab21]

Zukes hasn't had a wRC+ over 90 since 2009, and was below 70 the past two seasons. The only reason his career averages are substantively different from Junior's is that he had two nice seasons five and six years ago. Even with those two nice seasons, KS's wOba is only about 25 points higher than Junior's, and Ortiz was a pretty awful hitter.

 

He's riding a nice hot streak but giving him a two year extension as a reward for two or three good months... can't see it. And if he's still on his ridiculous pace in July or even August (unlikely), he'll want more money and/or years. Committing 10 million over 2 years to a guy who's a backup on a contender doesn't sound good. Not the end of the world, just not good use of finite resources.

 

25 pts of wOBA is really big actually.

 

I think people have unrealistic expectations of how well starting and backup catchers hit in the MLB. A 90 wRC (2011) is actually pretty solid for a catcher. It would be a low end starter or great backup but when the next option behind Pinto is a 50-60 wRC type then Suzuki is pretty important even if he's only a 200 PA guy for the Twins.

[jorgenswest]

25 pts of wOBA is really big actually.

 

I think people have unrealistic expectations of how well starting and backup catchers hit in the MLB. A 90 wRC (2011) is actually pretty solid for a catcher. It would be a low end starter or great backup but when the next option behind Pinto is a 50-60 wRC type then Suzuki is pretty important even if he's only a 200 PA guy for the Twins.

 

I might be overestimating his trade value. Given his position, experience and performance, I think he is the most valuable (and possibly only valuable) trade chip the Twins have to play.

 

I really hope that they will not extend him until after the trade deadline. Even after the deadline they need to go year to year. They don't need to dump him, but they need to seek a trade partner. Catchers are in short supply at the deadline.

[Sleestax]

Interesting. I hadnt considered a trade. I think he might be too valuable to the Twins to trade unless they get blown away. He is a very good guy for chemistry as well. Somebody we should be extending is Dozier who is in last year making less than 600,000 bucks.