Should Twins Sign Dozier Long Term?

[KirbyHawk75]

What kind of contract would he warrant?

[70charger]

We're not in a rush. Ask me again in a year or two.

[Erock]

No real point in doing so. He doesn't become a free agent until 2019 when he is 32. He is a solid 2B, but no all-star and he we have some interesting 2B in the minors.

[Thrylos]

Not yet. I'd love to see an OPS around .775 + for at least one full season before they should commit.

[sorney]

None. Go year to year with him. They control him for at least 3 more years (can't remember exactly how long). He isn't going to get overly expensive. Just live with the year to year deals

[Linus]

Dozier is the perfect example of how the Twins need to proceed to be successful in the long run. Use him for his cost controlled years and then trade him for whatever you can get for him. Underlines the importance of a good minor league system. This way, they always have the money to re-sign their legit stars such as (hopefully) Sano, Buxton, etc.

 

This is especially true for Dozier since we control him until 32 which is the point in time I am not signing any middle infielders to contract extensions.

[tobi0040]

Not yet. I'd love to see an OPS around .775 + for at least one full season before they should commit.

 

.775 seems like a high bar, that would have put him top 5 in OPS among 2B last year. Given that we really like his glove, if he is in the .730 range or higher I would consider a deal with him. It would only make sense if it buys out two years of free agency and does not come with a no trade clause. If someone like Polanco establishes himself as a 2B candidate, Dozier's contract would be an asset on the trade market.

[Boom Boom]

I'd wait until he proves he can put up a decent OBP.

[Mike Sixel]

I agree, one more year of this before signing. He's not a future all star, gotta keep guy. And, like most Twins lately, didnt' come up young.....

[Winston Smith]

NO. He can be a free agent 2019, 5 years away. He only has 1000 ab's and has been both bad and good. .177 with 12 k's this year certainly isn't something to jump up and down about. Maybe in a couple years if he hits well over that time but there is no reason to be in a hurry.

 

Think about that one, our leadoff hitter is hitting .177! Must be part of that master Ryan rebuild plan to have nobody to lead off for 2+ years now.

[nicksaviking]

I do like the idea of getting him extended, but not until late in the season or later. I'm also not worried about him getting expensive, but if he ends up being a useful player, I do like the idea of getting him into a team friendly contract like they did with Denard Span if for no other reason than to increase his value if the team were to move him.

 

Still plenty to prove though.

[iTwins]

No. I want to see him put up solid numbers in consecutive years before offering him any long term deal. Plus, with him being under team control for the next 5 seasons, it may be in their best interest to let him play out the deal and address things in 2019. (If he turns into an All-Star 2nd baseman before that time, you extend - albeit short term since he'll be 32 in '19. If he stays the same - good but not great - you to fill internally).

[cmathewson]

.775 seems like a high bar, that would have put him top 5 in OPS among 2B last year. Given that we really like his glove, if he is in the .730 range or higher I would consider a deal with him. It would only make sense if it buys out two years of free agency and does not come with a no trade clause. If someone like Polanco establishes himself as a 2B candidate, Dozier's contract would be an asset on the trade market.

 

It's not a random number, it's what he put up in the second half last year. If that's his full-year OPS this year, I'd be thrilled. It might warrant a Span-like contract at that point, just to control costs over his expected time with the team, and enhance his trade value.

 

Polanco is at least two years away from being a viable option imo, so maybe a three-year deal to buy out his arbitration years would make sense, assuming "Deke" continues to hit like he has in the last four months of baseball for a full season. As it did with Span, this can enhance his trade value when the time comes.

[ericchri]

I agree with most, not yet. A good full season this year and it's worth thinking about.

 

In a way I kind of feel bad for Dozier, he has a ways to go still obviously, but he looks like he could be a really good player who'd be a worth a long-term deal. Unfortunately for him, he's sitting at one of the positions that looks to potentially be most replaceable by prospects in the near future with Rosario and Polanco, and I'll be curious to see if they ever do offer him a good deal or if he ends up having to move elsewhere to get that contract.

[DuluthFan]

I must be seeing things.

 

A thread about signing a player rather than trading him for minor unproven leaguers.

[twinsfan34]

Why is it 5 years away (2019)...was thinking he had enough service time for only 3 more cost controlled years (2015, 2016, & 2017, FA in 2018)?

[Winston Smith]

Per Baseball Ref:

 

Service Time (01/2014): 1.100, Arb Eligible: 2016, Free Agent: 2019

[*], Agents: ABC Mgmt Leventhal & Lapa

[*]

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd wait and see if his 2013 second half was a fluke or not. He's got enough service time to put in where the Twins can get a pretty team friendly contract, and I'd argue that if he can hit the ball quite well this season, than towards the end of it, they should be doing the extension.

 

He's not going to be a Longoria, so the contract should be reasonbly priced. If he continues to hit, he's going to be tradable in the event that Rosario and/or Polanso force their way.

[BigTrane]

Er... I think there's a couple of things going on here.

 

1) Dozier was a (the?) bright spot last half of '13, and is a (the?) bright spot now.

 

Fine. On radar.

 

2) Dozier has been public in expressing his willingness for a long-term deal.

Somewhat awkward, at this point.

 

My theory: Dozier crossed paths with Cuddyer somewhere.

 

I love Dozier, love watching him play in the field, and if he can make the adjustments (he's being tasked with a lot of stuff already) and pick OBP- I think he can do it- then what's not to love?

 

I agree with the others here: he has to prove that 1/2 of '13 was not a fluke, and that he can make the necessary adjustments. I have faith here.

 

Another question- just for fun- is what if he is transitioned back to his natural position at SS, and makes it work?

 

No more P-Flo-Bartlett-Nunez headaches.

Does that make life easier... and winning more probable?

Just spitballin'.

 

My bet: Dozier sticks it this year, and the contract discussions begin after game 162.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Er... I think there's a couple of things going on here.

 

1) Dozier was a (the?) bright spot last half of '13, and is a (the?) bright spot now.

 

Fine. On radar.

 

2) Dozier has been public in expressing his willingness for a long-term deal.

Somewhat awkward, at this point.

 

My theory: Dozier crossed paths with Cuddyer somewhere.

 

I love Dozier, love watching him play in the field, and if he can make the adjustments (he's being tasked with a lot of stuff already) and pick OBP- I think he can do it- then what's not to love?

 

I agree with the others here: he has to prove that 1/2 of '13 was not a fluke, and that he can make the necessary adjustments. I have faith here.

 

Another question- just for fun- is what if he is transitioned back to his natural position at SS, and makes it work?

 

No more P-Flo-Bartlett-Nunez headaches.

Does that make life easier... and winning more probable?

Just spitballin'.

 

My bet: Dozier sticks it this year, and the contract discussions begin after game 162.

 

If he put up the .775 OPS or something like that this season, I'd sign him in the offseason. I'd probably move him to SS when I knew Rosario was ready given the dearth at the position, though for some reason people seem to think that's a bad idea.

[Shane Wahl]

He is under control for 5 seasons, yet! I would wait 3 or 4 of them and then see about adding a couple years.

 

Sign him now until like 2020 or something? what?

[TheLeviathan]

I think the notion of even doing this reflects how desperate we are for something positive to hold on to.

[BigTrane]

He is under control for 5 seasons, yet! I would wait 3 or 4 of them and then see about adding a couple years.

 

Sign him now until like 2020 or something? what?

Yeah, but the trend this season is for locking up talent early... thereby getting long-term bargains, when you factor in inflation. (AND drying out the FA market, btw.)

 

Case in point: The Barves (intentional foul). This is the new trend.

 

Dozier at least seems to have figured this out, perked his ears up, and made his wishes clear.

 

Think, for just a moment, about our history with developing middle infielders who have more than just a glove...

 

How many players have we seen get ready with the Twins, just to move on and only the fully blossom?

Hunter?

Cuddyer?

Garza?

Hawkins?

AJ?

Jacque Jones?

 

Ok, just kidding on JJ, but you know...

 

When do the Twins commit to a player who has proved/is proving himself at the MLB level?

The Hunter and Santana situations still just gut me...

[Halsey Hall]

No, the Twins shouldn't commit to any long term deals in the shape they are in. In a couple of years when Gardy and his staff are gone and new blood takes over, then maybe give it some thought. There'll be alot of turnover here for the run for a hun in 2018.

[Shane Wahl]

Yeah, but the trend this season is for locking up talent early... thereby getting long-term bargains, when you factor in inflation. (AND drying out the FA market, btw.)

 

Case in point: The Barves (intentional foul). This is the new trend.

 

Dozier at least seems to have figured this out, perked his ears up, and made his wishes clear.

 

Think, for just a moment, about our history with developing middle infielders who have more than just a glove...

 

How many players have we seen get ready with the Twins, just to move on and only the fully blossom?

Hunter?

Cuddyer?

Garza?

Hawkins?

AJ?

Jacque Jones?

 

Ok, just kidding on JJ, but you know...

 

When do the Twins commit to a player who has proved/is proving himself at the MLB level?

The Hunter and Santana situations still just gut me...

 

I would say that in the cases where it was a matter of losing people in such way, working out a deal in the last arb year or in the last contract year could have kept them. Extending Dozier beyond 2018 before 2017 seems really risky, for all sorts of reasons. Even if Dozier is very good for the next 4.92 seasons

[blairpaul715]

Before reading the comments here, I was in the mindset of extending Dozier after this season if last yr was not a fluke.........but I agree with most sentiments now that we should wait.......he is and will never be a superstar, so no need to extend till after 2016 or 17 if he shows he is worthy of a contract that would take away 2 of his free agent yrs.

[Reider]

There is no reason to rush a Dozier extension. Furthermore, he is better suited at 2nd base than SS.

[John Bonnes]

If he has a good year, I think this is in play for next offseason. He'll still be on team-set contract in 2015, meaning no real long term security. It will be the last time the Twins will have a lot of leverage and they could get a real bargain, even getting something like a 3 year deal with a couple of option years.

 

Maybe 1/2.5/4.5/7.5 option/9 option? That might be a little optimistic, but it seems something close to that could work.

[jorgenswest]

I don't see any reason to sign him long term.

 

He is under team control into his decline. Worst case he is an all star and it costs the Twins in arbitration. That is the kind of worst case the a Twins need. Better to keep him hungry.

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's pretty funny that we all thought his BA would rise and his SLG would dip this season.

 

It still might but heh.