Go get Verlander

[USAFChief]

http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/82052/verlanders-domination-of-the-dodgers-looked-like-an-astros-audition

 

Best possible combination of help in 2017 and help in the next couple years, right where the Twins need it, at a reasonable cost and not for the 6-7 years it'll take to get a similar pitcher over the winter.

 

Verlander isn't quite what he was, but he's still very good.

[Squirrel]

 

Agree, but what are you willing to give up to get him? And would he waive his no-trade clause to come to the Twins?

I bet he'd waive his clause to go to a team with a chance of winning ... but I'd be more concerned in what we would have to give up. Of course you try ... but I'm not knowledgeable enough with our prospects to know what would be reasonable. And if he had the chance to go to Houston or the Twins? I'd pick Houston this year.

[Vanimal46]

Still think there's another two 200 IP seasons left in that arm. Still hitting 98 MPH after 100 pitches against the Dodgers. His FB velocity has actually improved 95.7 MPH this season, his best since 2011 after a gradual decline. 

[VirginSturgeon]

I would love to have Verlander for the next 2 years but they haven't given many details on what prospects they expect and how much money they will eat.  I would like to know what the Tigers thoughts are and expectations for a return.  this team is really close and you would like to improve them for 2018 and 2019. That 28 million a year might be better than throwing 6 year contracts at Arrieta and Darvish for 20-25 million a year.

[Doubles]

I don't like the level of risk inherently tied to a 35 year old with a $28MM salary.  Not sure I'd even want the risk of spending FA dough like that, much less having to give up prime prospects.

[nicksaviking]

Not to troll Minnesotans, but if I were to play this situation out it in my head it might go like this.

 

Tigers GM: Justin, the Twins and Astros both want you but the Twins have given us the better offer. You're going to Minnesota!

 

Verlander: Well I want to win a WS and Houston is a better team, that's where I want to go.

 

Tigers GM: Sorry Justin, but that's not how it works, we have to do what's best for our organization.

 

Verlander: Tough, I won't waive my no-trade clause for the Twins. If you want to get rid of my salary and get a prospect or two, send me to Houston. If not, we can revisit this in the off season when plenty of other ideal destinations may present themselves.

[Squirrel]

 

Not to troll Minnesotans, but if I were to play this situation out it in my head it might go like this.

 

Tigers GM: Justin, the Twins and Astros both want you but the Twins have given us the better offer. You're going to Minnesota!

 

Verlander: Well I want to win a WS and Houston is a better team, that's where I want to go.

 

Tigers GM: Sorry Justin, but that's not how it works, we have to do what's best for our organization.

 

Verlander: Tough, I won't waive my no-trade clause for the Twins. If you want to get rid of my salary and get a prospect or two, send me to Houston. If not, we can revisit this in the off season when plenty of other ideal destinations may present themselves.

Yup. I indicated that above that if I waived my no-trade clause, it would be for Houston before Minnesota ... but ... we'll see. And I'm not sure who I'd give up for him, either. They would probably want what anyone wants ... pitching prospects ... and I'm not sure we have those to give.

[AZTwin]

I would give them Kohl Stewart, Lamonte Wade, and Alex Kiriloff for him? Maybe throw blankenhorn. Would that be enough?

[Oldgoat_MN]

Obviously it would be all about cost, but I would trust Verlander to give us a chance to win most games he started.

Don't know if Detroit would want all young players or start with Rosario & Romero.

Houston has inquired on Verlander multiple times. The Tiggers are asking a lot.

[Major League Ready]

 

I don't like the level of risk inherently tied to a 35 year old with a $28MM salary.  Not sure I'd even want the risk of spending FA dough like that, much less having to give up prime prospects.

 

Bingo.  It's short-sighted.  Why on earth would you take on the last years of this type of contract and give up prospects.  If you are going to spend the money associated with this type of SP, go get one next year that is 3-5 years younger and hold on to our prospects to boot.  Don't spend $28M/yr and only get the years that they are very likely to decline.  Go get someone still in their prime and keep the prospects.

 

Plus, Nicksavings is likely right about his willingness to waive his NT clause.

 

[gunnarthor]

I would imagine the Tigers would want Gordon and Gonsalves as a starting point but more would be needed. Not sure how money plays into all this but Detroit isn't just going to get rid of him and they are also trying to shed payroll.So the Twins (or Astros) would have to give up real talent and take on a lot of salary. Does that sound like a Pohlad move? 

 

[gunnarthor]

I think I'd rather the Twins tried to get Matt Moore. He has two option years left. He's been horrible for SF this year and they want prospects. He's only 28 and has some history of being good but hasn't quite recovered from TJ years ago. He gets strike outs but gives up lots of hits.  He's a fly ball pitcher so I'm not sure how TF compares to SF's park but I suspect our OF defense would be an upgrade for him.

[USAFChief]

 

Bingo.  It's short-sighted.  Why on earth would you take on the last years of this type of contract and give up prospects.  If you are going to spend the money associated with this type of SP, go get one next year that is 3-5 years younger and hold on to our prospects to boot.  Don't spend $28M/yr and only get the years that they are very likely to decline.  Go get someone still in their prime and keep the prospects.

 

Plus, Nicksavings is likely right about his willingness to waive his NT clause.

Purchasing a similar level talent will require somewhere around triple the money.  This ownership group simply isn't going to do that.  You've argued at length yourself that it simply isn't going to happen.

 

I also would much rather spend that kind of money on 2-3 years than 6-7.  Plus, the point is, Verlander hasn't declined a lot, and there's no reason to expect him to in the next couple years.

 

 

[alarp33]

 

I would give them Kohl Stewart, Lamonte Wade, and Alex Kiriloff for him? Maybe throw blankenhorn. Would that be enough?

 

Substitute Romero for Stewart and you maybe get Detroit to think about it.  Still wouldn't be enough though

 

No thanks

[drjim]

 

I think I'd rather the Twins tried to get Matt Moore. He has two option years left. He's been horrible for SF this year and they want prospects. He's only 28 and has some history of being good but hasn't quite recovered from TJ years ago. He gets strike outs but gives up lots of hits.  He's a fly ball pitcher so I'm not sure how TF compares to SF's park but I suspect our OF defense would be an upgrade for him.

 

Moore is the guy I would be interested in going after. I imagine cost wouldn't be *too* high.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

It bears reminding that not every prospect in our system will be a perennial All Star someday.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Matt Moore hasn't been an above average pitcher since 2014.

I don't think 3 years is a small sample size.

Looks risky to me.

[USAFChief]

 

Substitute Romero for Stewart and you maybe get Detroit to think about it.  Still wouldn't be enough though

 

No thanks

If you take on the entire salary commitment it won't be this expensive in terms of prospects.  And that's the whole point.

 

 

[alarp33]

 

Purchasing a similar level talent will require somewhere around triple the money.  This ownership group simply isn't going to do that.  You've argued at length yourself that it simply isn't going to happen.

 

I also would much rather spend that kind of money on 2-3 years than 6-7.  Plus, the point is, Verlander hasn't declined a lot, and there's no reason to expect him to in the next couple years.

 

46th in xFIP

31st in FIP

29th in ERA

 

Turning 35 before next season.  Triple the money for a similar talent??? They can spend the same amount of money over more years and get a similar talent

[Pardon My Dinger]

The Tigers will be less interested in sending Verlander to an AL Central team, no? 

[whydidnt]

I do agree with previous posters that Verlander isn't likely to waive his NT to come to the Twins. However, if we can move past that, he would be a massive upgrade on what we have. However, for me I would only agree to take on all the salary if the return in prospects wasn't too great. I'm not dealing 2-3 of our top prospects and taking on $28M/year. If the Pohlads are willing to spend that king of change on a P, let's go get a FA in the off-season and keep the prospects. 

I chuckled as I wrote this though. The thought of the Pohlads signing off on $28M for 2 more years just makes me laugh.

[gunnarthor]

 

Matt Moore hasn't been an above average pitcher since 2014.

I don't think 3 years is a small sample size.

Looks risky to me.

In 2016, he threw ~ 200 ip, 99 ERA+, 2.0 WAR that's about as average as you can get.

This year has been a disaster.

2015 he only had 12 starts coming back from injury so I'm not sure there's a lot to gain from it. If the Twins think they can get the 2016 or better version, he's an upgrade. If not, he's not.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I would give them Kohl Stewart, Lamonte Wade, and Alex Kiriloff for him? Maybe throw blankenhorn. Would that be enough?

 

More than enough. There is almost no excess value in his contract right now.

 

I was thinking a similar deal, only Jorge and Kiriloff and Jay.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

In 2016, he threw ~ 200 ip, 99 ERA+, 2.0 WAR that's about as average as you can get.

This year has been a disaster.

2015 he only had 12 starts coming back from injury so I'm not sure there's a lot to gain from it. If the Twins think they can get the 2016 or better version, he's an upgrade. If not, he's not.

I agree:  if they get the 2016 version then it is good for the money he's owed.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Bingo.  It's short-sighted.  Why on earth would you take on the last years of this type of contract and give up prospects.  If you are going to spend the money associated with this type of SP, go get one next year that is 3-5 years younger and hold on to our prospects to boot.  Don't spend $28M/yr and only get the years that they are very likely to decline.  Go get someone still in their prime and keep the prospects.

 

Plus, Nicksavings is likely right about his willingness to waive his NT clause.

 

And who is as good as Verlander that is available? Oh, and you have to oubid 29 other teams too.

[USAFChief]

 

46th in xFIP

31st in FIP

29th in ERA

 

Turning 35 before next season.  Triple the money for a similar talent??? They can spend the same amount of money over more years and get a similar talent

name(s), please.

[alarp33]

 

name(s), please.

 

Chacin, Cobb, Estrada, Lynn, Hellickson - would put these guys in a similar class to 35 year old Verlander, will command significantly less per year than $28 million.  

 

Arrietta, Darvish, Tanaka, Cueto - better than Verlander, will be expensive

[Tuba]

Just tell the Pohlad's that Kate Upton at games is worth at least $4m a year. You will sell a lot of Dugout Box tickets. 

[whydidnt]

 

Chacin, Cobb, Estrada, Lynn, Hellickson - would put these guys in a similar class to 35 year old Verlander, will command significantly less per year than $28 million.  

 

Arrietta, Darvish, Tanaka, Cueto - better than Verlander, will be expensive

We'll have to disagree on assessment of guys in the same class or better. None of those guys in your top class has either the pedigree, velocity or recent results that Verlander has. Arrietta is the only of the "better" class that has performed better than Verlander this year, and his stats are trending downward.

I'm not sure how to define available, but not all of these guys are going to be FA's and I can't see their team shopping them either, especially a guy like Tanaka.

 

We are probably arguing over nothing of import though, the Twins aren't going to take on Verlander's salary, and It would be short sighted to give up a huge prospect haul to get Detroit to cover enough of it to matter. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

Chacin, Cobb, Estrada, Lynn, Hellickson - would put these guys in a similar class to 35 year old Verlander, will command significantly less per year than $28 million.  

 

Arrietta, Darvish, Tanaka, Cueto - better than Verlander, will be expensive

2 years 56 mil is steep, but it's only two years. If you think Helickson is taking less than 3 years 17 mil per year (51 mil) on his next contract, I'd like to se evidence. I'd take the shorter contract every time.