Go get Verlander

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

It’s somewhat irrelevant if they resign or not.  The point was that they will absorb the available dollars and that the cumulative effect will put the Twins in a better position to compete with teams that normally have far more dollars to spend on free agents.  Where they sign or if they are available does not change the financial realities of all the elite players becoming FAs in the same year.

 

I too get tired of hearing the whining about the Twins “elect / chose” not to compete for the elite free agents as if it’s only the Twins.  I have asked repeatedly for those of you who say this to give examples of when a team with equivalent or less revenue sign one of these elite SPs to a 5+ year contract.  I even went so far as to list them at one point.  Yet, you and others just ignore the fact that other teams with similar revenue also have been unwilling or unable to sign elite FA SPs.   With the level of baseball knowledge here its certainly not that you and others are not aware of history.  You just refuse to accept it. At least put it in the appropriate context and don’t single out the Twins like it’s just this organization.  Complain that none of the mid-market or smaller teams are willing to spend with reckless abandon in order to keep up with teams with $100-200M more in revenue.   At least then the argument would be presented in an accurate context.

 

The only semi-reasonable examples of it happening are Grienke and Scherzer.  However, Arizona had just signed a billion dollar TV contract so Grienke is only a reasonable example if you ignore the enormous TV contract Arizona had just signed.   If the Twins sign a billion dollar TV contract and wont spend, I will be the first to condemn them.  Until then, you are complaining that they refuse to act like a business.

 

Washington is a considerably bigger market but the Scherzer signing is a somewhat reasonable example.  Their revenue has averaged around $300M the last 3 years.  That pays for Scherzer twice so I won't not characterize the Nationals as a fair example but they obviously dont have the spending power of the very top markets.

Still ignoring what Illitch spent in Detroit?

[Vanimal46]

 

Until then, you are complaining that they refuse to act like a business.

 

Sorry for cutting off your post, but I wanted to touch on this point. It is annoying that the Pohlads treat the Twins like one of their many business ventures... Sports should be entertainment, and some owners in sports act like their teams are a hobby, not a business. 

[USAFChief]

 

It’s somewhat irrelevant if they resign or not.  The point was that they will absorb the available dollars and that the cumulative effect will put the Twins in a better position to compete with teams that normally have far more dollars to spend on free agents.  Where they sign or if they are available does not change the financial realities of all the elite players becoming FAs in the same year.

 

I too get tired of hearing the whining about the Twins “elect / chose” not to compete for the elite free agents as if it’s only the Twins.  I have asked repeatedly for those of you who say this to give examples of when a team with equivalent or less revenue sign one of these elite SPs to a 5+ year contract.  I even went so far as to list them at one point.  Yet, you and others just ignore the fact that other teams with similar revenue also have been unwilling or unable to sign elite FA SPs.   With the level of baseball knowledge here its certainly not that you and others are not aware of history.  You just refuse to accept it. At least put it in the appropriate context and don’t single out the Twins like it’s just this organization.  Complain that none of the mid-market or smaller teams are willing to spend with reckless abandon in order to keep up with teams with $100-200M more in revenue.   At least then the argument would be presented in an accurate context.

 

The only semi-reasonable examples of it happening are Grienke and Scherzer.  However, Arizona had just signed a billion dollar TV contract so Grienke is only a reasonable example if you ignore the enormous TV contract Arizona had just signed.   If the Twins sign a billion dollar TV contract and wont spend, I will be the first to condemn them.  Until then, you are complaining that they refuse to act like a business.

 

Washington is a considerably bigger market but the Scherzer signing is a somewhat reasonable example.  Their revenue has averaged around $300M the last 3 years.  That pays for Scherzer twice so I won't not characterize the Nationals as a fair example but they obviously dont have the spending power of the very top markets.

"Where they sign or if they are available does not change the financial realities of all the elite players becoming FAs in the same year."

 

If they absorb the available dollars, they won't be there for the Twins to sign.  So then what...wait for 2020?

 

I also don't understand recommending waiting till 2019 in one post, and then in the same post, spend the next paragraph reminding us that the Twins can't go big.

 

Followed by examples of similar teams going big.

 

Followed by why those examples really shouldn't count.

 

 

 

 

[Major League Ready]

 

Sorry for cutting off your post, but I wanted to touch on this point. It is annoying that the Pohlads treat the Twins like one of their many business ventures... Sports should be entertainment, and some owners in sports act like their teams are a hobby, not a business. 

 

If Forbes information is accurate, Illitch in Detroit is the only MLB owner who has ignored fiscal responsibility.  I have looked back at all of the Forbes reports and while its a generalization, the teams basically spend in line with revenues.  I would love it if the Pohlads were willing to operate as a non profit or lose 10s of millions like Detroit has in some years, expecting someone to make nothing on their billion dollar asset is a far-fetched expectation. 

[Major League Ready]

 

 

"Where they sign or if they are available does not change the financial realities of all the elite players becoming FAs in the same year."

 

If they absorb the available dollars, they won't be there for the Twins to sign.  So then what...wait for 2020?

 

I also don't understand recommending waiting till 2019 in one post, and then in the same post, spend the next paragraph reminding us that the Twins can't go big.

 

Followed by examples of similar teams going big.

 

Followed by why those examples really shouldn't count.

 

They don't have to get one of the $300M free agents to help this team significantly.  Is it really that hard to understand that all of these guys entering free agency in the same year will absorb the dollars available among the to 5 or 6 teams that the Twins simply cant compete with in free agency.  Thus, the Twins will be in a better position than most years to compete for the free agents after the top markets sign several extremely expensive deals.  No, we are not going to get Harper or Machodo but we should be positioned to compete for the tier just below the superstars.

 

There are only two possibilities.  One, other teams with similar revenue to the Twins have landed these types of SPs and I simply unaware.  Name them.  The second possibility is that with the exception of Detroit who has modestly more revenue than the twins, none of the other similar teams have signed these elite free agents either which clearly indicated they either consider detrimental to put all of their eggs in one basket or they just cant afford it, period. 

 

So, for once, quit making empty arguments and present examples of similar teams landing elite free agent SPs to 5+ year contracts.  If you can't come up with them, you can't single out the Twins. 

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

So, for once, quit making empty arguments and present examples of similar teams landing elite free agent SPs to 5+ year contracts.  If you can't come up with them, you can't single out the Twins. 

I'm not really sure I want the Twins to dip into that end of the free agency waters, but...

 

Greinke was signed by Arizona

Scherzer was signed by Washington

Shields was signed by the Padres

 

Arizona and Washington are marginally larger markets than Minnesota but they're still mid-market teams. San Diego is a comparable size to Minnesota.

[wsnydes]

 

Sorry for cutting off your post, but I wanted to touch on this point. It is annoying that the Pohlads treat the Twins like one of their many business ventures... Sports should be entertainment, and some owners in sports act like their teams are a hobby, not a business. 

I always have to play two sides of this.  The business side of me understands completely and doesn't fault them for it.  It is a business and they seemingly practice sound business practices to keep it and their other ventures viable.  Then on the other hand (the fan) says that they're so rich, so spend like it!  I'd like to think that if I were in that situation, I'd try to find a happy medium because it would be so fun to own a baseball team, yet part of the reason of owning it would be to make some money.  

 

I don't think the Polhad heirs enjoy owning a team as much as Carl supposedly did.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

So, for once, quit making empty arguments and present examples of similar teams landing elite free agent SPs to 5+ year contracts.  If you can't come up with them, you can't single out the Twins. 

You have laid down this challenge many times before.  I think I gave you the Greinke and Scherzer counter-examples which you apparently refuse to accept.  And as I previously told you, elite FA SP is a very small set.  Yes, most of them go to big market teams, but Greinke and Scherzer didn't. You can't handwave them away and keep demanding more examples.

 

I won't blame the Twins for not landing a particular elite FA SP, but they are in the revenue range where they should be able to pursue one once in a while, even if they don't land them.  Especially if they don't have their own to extend like Felix Hernandez, etc.  I'm not going to give them an excuse just to sit out the market completely.

[JustinCB]

 

I would give them Kohl Stewart, Lamonte Wade, and Alex Kiriloff for him? Maybe throw blankenhorn. Would that be enough?

 

Unless the Tigers want to pick up a good chunk of that salary, Twins hang up on that one.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I would give them Kohl Stewart, Lamonte Wade, and Alex Kiriloff for him? Maybe throw blankenhorn. Would that be enough?

 

 

Unless the Tigers want to pick up a good chunk of that salary, Twins hang up on that one.

 

Pretty sure the Tigers would hang up on that first.  Kiriloff would be the wild card.  The other 3 listed are interesting but not particularly impressive or high-ceiling.  Like most trade situations, the Tigers are likely looking for quality over quantity in prospects (or Verlander would probably have been dealt by now).  A handful of C+/B- prospects generally don't move the needle much.

[Jham]

If Forbes information is accurate, Illitch in Detroit is the only MLB owner who has ignored fiscal responsibility. I have looked back at all of the Forbes reports and while its a generalization, the teams basically spend in line with revenues. I would love it if the Pohlads were willing to operate as a non profit or lose 10s of millions like Detroit has in some years, expecting someone to make nothing on their billion dollar asset is a far-fetched expectation.

Whoa. Lecturing on business but ignoring that many many MANY successful business operate at a deficit. This is because the business itself grows. Chewy.com was purchased for $3.35 billion by petco after 6 years of operation. They never once made money... until they sold a six figure investment for $3.5 billion. Owners can lose tens of millions if their business is increasing its value by hundreds of millions.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Whoa. Lecturing on business but ignoring that many many MANY successful business operate at a deficit. This is because the business itself grows. Chewy.com was purchased for $3.35 billion by petco after 6 years of operation. They never once made money... until they sold a six figure investment for $3.5 billion. Owners can lose tens of millions if their business is increasing its value by hundreds of millions.

Increase in asset valuation only matters if you sell (or take a loan against it). The Pohlads don't seem interested in either option.

 

And franchise valuation has virtually no correlation to payroll or a winning team.

 

Spending more on payroll isn't the same as Amazon accruing debt to reinvest in itself over and over again because reinvestment pays off down the road if done well. Payroll... doesn't. It burns through itself year over year, leaving no real benefit past the occasional World Series trophy.

[wsnydes]

 

Whoa. Lecturing on business but ignoring that many many MANY successful business operate at a deficit. This is because the business itself grows. Chewy.com was purchased for $3.35 billion by petco after 6 years of operation. They never once made money... until they sold a six figure investment for $3.5 billion. Owners can lose tens of millions if their business is increasing its value by hundreds of millions.

 

 

Increase in asset valuation only matters if you sell (or take a loan against it). The Pohlads don't seem interested in either option.

 

And franchise valuation has virtually no correlation to payroll or a winning team.

 

Spending more on payroll isn't the same as Amazon accruing debt to reinvest in itself over and over again because reinvestment pays off down the road if done well. Payroll... doesn't. It burns through itself year over year, leaving no real benefit past the occasional World Series trophy.

Plus, most established businesses aren't going to have exponential growth like an emerging startup would.  Even then, as you said, it's only realized if you sell or take a loan against it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Plus, most established businesses aren't going to have exponential growth like an emerging startup would.  Even then, as you said, it's only realized if you sell or take a loan against it.

Thirdly, startups are not a good comparison point, as they operate under a ridiculous business model that will collapse at some point:

 

Offer a complementary service, accrue an assload of debt, and then sell to a large tech firm before your investment capital runs dry.

 

Very few startups offer a robust enough service to stand on their own in the long run (Uber, Dropbox, et al). The goal of the average startup is to be bought out, not stand on their own.

 

Which makes any comparison to a standard business model a little inaccurate.

[USAFChief]

Carl Pohlad bought the Twins for $44M.

 

Forbes 2017 estimate of the value of the Twins:  $1.03B 

 

https://www.forbes.com/pictures/58cc474f31358e1a35ad373d/22-minnesota-twins/#2846f43f71a9

 

They rank as the 22nd most valuable franchise (for reference, Detroit is 18th at $1.2B, AZ 20th at $1.15B).

 

 Take from that what you will, but to me it indicates the Twins aren't losing money, and franchise appreciation is the real goal of ownership.

[JustinCB]

 

Pretty sure the Tigers would hang up on that first.  Kiriloff would be the wild card.  The other 3 listed are interesting but not particularly impressive or high-ceiling.  Like most trade situations, the Tigers are likely looking for quality over quantity in prospects (or Verlander would probably have been dealt by now).  A handful of C+/B- prospects generally don't move the needle much.

 

He did already clear waivers, keep in mind.  He's not worth the ~80MM left on the contract, let alone once you start including multiple decent prospects.  Kiriloff could crack the top 100 if he comes back strong from the injury.

 

To wit:  http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/getting-the-tigers-a-real-prospect-for-justin-verlander/

[Otto von Ballpark]

He did already clear waivers, keep in mind. He's not worth the ~80MM left on the contract, let alone once you start including multiple decent prospects. Kiriloff could crack the top 100 if he comes back strong from the injury.

Bryce Harper cleared waivers too. August trade waivers aren't always a meaningful snapshot of value.

 

I did admit Kiriloff would be the wild card there. Not sure where he is at, also he's a corner player so someone may have to think his bat is elite to headline a major trade package.

[Jham]

Carl Pohlad bought the Twins for $44M.

 

Forbes 2017 estimate of the value of the Twins: $1.03B

 

https://www.forbes.com/pictures/58cc474f31358e1a35ad373d/22-minnesota-twins/#2846f43f71a9

 

They rank as the 22nd most valuable franchise (for reference, Detroit is 18th at $1.2B, AZ 20th at $1.15B).

 

Take from that what you will, but to me it indicates the Twins aren't losing money, and franchise appreciation is the real goal of ownership.

Thank you. Good teams get public funding for stadiums, nice tv deals, and all star games.

[Jham]

Increase in asset valuation only matters if you sell (or take a loan against it). The Pohlads don't seem interested in either option.

 

And franchise valuation has virtually no correlation to payroll or a winning team.

 

Spending more on payroll isn't the same as Amazon accruing debt to reinvest in itself over and over again because reinvestment pays off down the road if done well. Payroll... doesn't. It burns through itself year over year, leaving no real benefit past the occasional World Series trophy.

I dunno. If I'm a billionaire, that's a pretty fun way to accrue expenses to offset profits...

 

If startups aren't a good comparison, neither are normal large corporations with shareholders, boards, and fiduciary duties.

 

My point, though extreme (literally the most expensive internet purchase ever) is that year to year profits don't necessarily matter when they can always cash out for a huge return. I mean, if it were all about profit, carry a $35 mil roster and keep your money.

[Doomtints]

 

I always have to play two sides of this.  The business side of me understands completely and doesn't fault them for it.  It is a business and they seemingly practice sound business practices to keep it and their other ventures viable.  Then on the other hand (the fan) says that they're so rich, so spend like it!  I'd like to think that if I were in that situation, I'd try to find a happy medium because it would be so fun to own a baseball team, yet part of the reason of owning it would be to make some money.  

 

I don't think the Polhad heirs enjoy owning a team as much as Carl supposedly did.

 

In the run-up to Target Field, the Twins were more forthcoming with their revenue and spending. They claimed they were spending 50% of the revenue on player salaries but pledged to spend more after Target Field was built.

 

There is no way to know for sure but I suspect this promise was broken. To be fair, the Pohlad who made this promise is no longer with us and apparently the Pohlad family were very upset about the inheritance tax levied upon the family for the Minnesota Twins properties. I still believe to this day that the whole Ryan II debacle was the Pohlads trying to cut spending to earn their tax payments back which were reportedly in the hundreds of millions.

 

In any case, in the great U S and A, employee salaries are 100% tax deductible. Conversely, whatever the Pohlads choose to pay themselves from Twins revenue is surely taxed at a very high rate. There is no good reason for the team to not spend on salaries. Pohlad can pay himself a few million a year and it won't affect the team's ability to get whoever they want in free agency.

 

As for any "rainy day" fund the team maintains, this should have been amply funded at least 5 years ago, no?

[howeda7]

 

In the run-up to Target Field, the Twins were more forthcoming with their revenue and spending. They claimed they were spending 50% of the revenue on player salaries but pledged to spend more after Target Field was built.

 

There is no way to know for sure but I suspect this promise was broken. To be fair, the Pohlad who made this promise is no longer with us and apparently the Pohlad family were very upset about the inheritance tax levied upon the family for the Minnesota Twins properties. I still believe to this day that the whole Ryan II debacle was the Pohlads trying to cut spending to earn their tax payments back.

 

In any case, in the great U S and A, employee salaries are 100% tax deductible. Conversely, whatever the Pohlads choose to pay themselves from Twins revenue is surely taxed at a very high rate. There is no good reason for the team to not spend on salaries. Pohlad can pay himself a few million a year and it won't affect the team's ability to get whoever they want in free agency.

Stadium revenue is minor compared to TV $. The Twins have never gotten the massive TV payday many other clubs have gotten, even relative to market size. The timing of the Victory sports attempt/collapse and subsequent fairly meager long-term deal they accepted from FSN with their tail between their legs caused them to miss the boat. And now that the TV networks are taking it in the shorts, they likely never will.

 

They also went from a net receiver of revenue sharing to a net payer (probably close to neutral now) so the increase in revenue wasn't as stark going from the Dome to TF as it might have been. The payroll is around $100M. It could probably be $115-120 if they pushed it. But it's not like they're sitting on mounds of cash.

[Doomtints]

 

Stadium revenue is minor compared to TV $. 

 

The Twins make $37M/yr on their TV contract. Their payroll is $116M. 

 

If we use the premise that the Twins are spending 50% of their revenue on salaries, they are making a huge chunk of cash from their properties (which would include trademarks, advertising, mlb.tv, and the like, not just games, concessions, and events at Target Field). Even if you bump this to 80%, which is an unlikely percentage, they are still making more bank from their properties.

 

The Twins TV contract is not unusual, the Twins are in the middle third of baseball when it comes to TV contract revenue, which suggests that most teams make most of their cash from non-TV revenue. Even the Yankees, who make $100M a year from YES, no doubt make at least that much from property rights including Yankee Stadium.

[Craig Arko]

Remind me again; who here actually resides in Hennepin County?

 

Raises hand.

[Major League Ready]

 

You have laid down this challenge many times before.  I think I gave you the Greinke and Scherzer counter-examples which you apparently refuse to accept.  And as I previously told you, elite FA SP is a very small set.  Yes, most of them go to big market teams, but Greinke and Scherzer didn't. You can't handwave them away and keep demanding more examples.

 

I won't blame the Twins for not landing a particular elite FA SP, but they are in the revenue range where they should be able to pursue one once in a while, even if they don't land them.  Especially if they don't have their own to extend like Felix Hernandez, etc.  I'm not going to give them an excuse just to sit out the market completely.

 

Actually, I have always readily acknowledged these examples and that there is some merit in them as examples.  However, I have pointed out that Arizona had just signed a billion dollar TV contract.   The core principal here is teams in the same financial position.  Are you really suggesting that this extremely large anomaly disqualifies this example.  It is ridiculous to accuse me of not accepting the facts when you cling to this example. 

 

Let's also keep in mind that even a team with the Dodgers revenue felt it was a very bad idea to pay Grienke that kind of money through his age 37 season.  Therefore, if we are reasonable about this example, it would suggest that this example also required paying a very high AAV though age 37 which history strongly suggest is a very poor utilization of payroll.  Therefore, even if the financial profile was the same, the Grienke is tempered by the fact that contract will probably hurt the team substantially. 

 

I also acknowledge Scherzer as being a reasonable example.  If we are being fair, one could argue Washington is not a financial equal.  They averaged roughly $300M the last 3 years.  That's enough to pay for Scherzer a couple times so let's be reasonable about the Nationals not really being a team in the same financial position.  It's just not the $100-200M advantage some teams have.

 

Here is the net of this discussion.  Arizona signing Grienke right after landing a billion dollar TV can't be considered even remotely similar financial circumstances and Scherzer to a team with enough incremental revenue to pay for him twice.   Given that's the extent of the example, I think my position that it's not the Twins organization as those of you who cling to this argument suggest.  It's simply the financial realities of a mid-market team. 

 

 

 

 

[Major League Ready]

 

I'm not really sure I want the Twins to dip into that end of the free agency waters, but...

 

Greinke was signed by Arizona

Scherzer was signed by Washington

Shields was signed by the Padres

 

Arizona and Washington are marginally larger markets than Minnesota but they're still mid-market teams. San Diego is a comparable size to Minnesota.

 

Arizona had just signed a billion dollar contract.  Not equivalent by any stretch of the imagination and a deal I hope we would not sign even if we could.

 

Shields was a 4 year deal for $71M.  Not that much different than Santana.  This is certainly not beyond the Twins capacity.  He is the type of player they can and should get with one exception.  He was a bit too old and already starting to show decline.  The next year after signing him they traded him and had to absorb 60% of his salary to move him.  Regardless, I simply did not consider this contract or player to be comparable to the elite FA SPs.  If he is an example, he is an example of why signing SPs past their prime is a suspect strategy.

 

Scherzer is the one reasonable example.  We just need to be reasonable in our assessment of financial equivalence.  $60M or 20% incremental revenue is significant.  When any of us increase or income by 20% I think we probably buy things we would not have prior to the increase.  Accepting Scherzer as a somewhat reasonable example is reasonable.  Suggesting the financial capacity of the two teams is the same is not very reasonable.  If the Twins get a new TV deal and get into that $300M range, I would expect them to spend accordingly.  

 

The net is that there is one example of this every happening that can be reasonably compared but that example is from a team with 20% more income.  (when the team peaked in revenue).   Is it reasonable to expect this to happen or suggest the twins are simply cheap.  I would love if Jim Pohlad went nuts but expecting it is very Naive.  What really drives me crazy is that group really knows baseball and would be quick to point out any other situation that was so rare or any circumstances that diminished the comparison to similar occurrences.

[USAFChief]

Verlander himself, Det, $180

Felix Hernandez, Sea, $175

Strasburgh, WAS, $175

Zimmerman, Det, $110

 

Those are off the top of my head (I looked up the dollar amounts).

 

 

[Major League Ready]

 

Verlander himself, Det, $180

Felix Hernandez, Sea, $175

Strasburgh, WAS, $175

Zimmerman, Det, $110

 

Those are off the top of my head (I looked up the dollar amounts).

 

I am pretty sure those are all contracts with their current club except Zimmerman.  We all know this is a different animal and  The Twins gave Mauer $183.  Not sure of your point.  Seems like now that the facts are clear you are changing the narrative.  Zimmerman was not the Ace type SP we have talking about.  He is the type of player the Twins could land.   However, given how he is performing, Zimmerman is not an example of something we missed out on. 

 

[AlwaysinModeration]

There is the infamous "mystery team" inquiring about Verlander.

 

Could it be the Twins? Verlander sure would make a nice fifth starter....

[AlwaysinModeration]

https://mobile.twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/902633040651935744

[Jerr]

NO! I want to see the youth movement with the Twins to continue and Verlander, is not the solution as far as I can see.