Go get Verlander

[alarp33]

 

Note that I am arguing on another thread that the Twins could have done a better job of setting up Romero and Gonsalves for potential 2017 contributions, so I am certainly not knocking them.

Romero is pretty good, but it seems his value might still be a peg or two lower than Berrios at the same point. And Gonsalves... I get the feeling like he might be one of those guys who is just never as good as his minor league numbers. Even if those guys contribute in MLB, it is far from guaranteed that they would necessarily exceed even Verlander's diminished contributions. (Still on track for 4+ bWAR this year, after 6.6 last year, and even 2.2 in a partial season in 2015.)

I'd be a little nervous about sending them both away, but if only one could headline a deal, I'd really have to think about it.

 

I agree with you on Gonsalves - I also don't think the Tigers would take him as a headliner in a Verlander trade.  Also there were evaluators who doubted Berrios ability to be anything more than a #3 due to his height - Keith Law specifically comes to mind, though I know he rated him fairly highly prior to 2016

 

As for Romero, I personally believe the only thing keeping him a peg or two below Berrios at this point is the missed 2015 season.  I would guess he will shoot up some prospect rankings prior to 2018

[whydidnt]

Fangraphs published an article a week and a half ago regarding Verlander's value. Their view was that Verlander could fetch a low top 100 prospect plus some filler, if the Tigers picked up enough salary so the other team was only on the hook for about 30M over the next 2 years. So something like Gosalves or Romero + 1 or 2 C level guys? I know just because Fangraphs writes it, doesn't mean that's what the Tigers would consider, but it does help to put things in context I think, and shows what the market will probably support.

[USAFChief]

Just stopped by to say I appreciate the spirited, but reasoned and courteous discussion.  TD is a good place.

 

Those of you who disagree are still wrong, of course, but wrong in a thoughtful manner.   

[Mike Sixel]

I would argue many evaluators would choose Fernando Romero over Jose Berrios as a prospect, I would also guess some may take Gonsalves.

Zero percent chance they like Gonsalves more than Berrios. No way.

[DocBauer]

Note that I am arguing on another thread that the Twins could have done a better job of setting up Romero and Gonsalves for potential 2017 contributions, so I am certainly not knocking them.

 

Romero is pretty good, but it seems his value might still be a peg or two lower than Berrios at the same point. And Gonsalves... I get the feeling like he might be one of those guys who is just never as good as his minor league numbers. Even if those guys contribute in MLB, it is far from guaranteed that they would necessarily exceed even Verlander's diminished contributions. (Still on track for 4+ bWAR this year, after 6.6 last year, and even 2.2 in a partial season in 2015.)

 

I'd be a little nervous about sending them both away, but if only one could headline a deal, I'd really have to think about it.

I hear what you are saying about Gonsalvez, and he simply doesn't have the pure stuff of a Berrios. But his stuff is still solid. And like Berrios, he sure seems to have the "it" factor when it comes to competitive fire and "pitchability". I really think he's a keeper, though like most young pitchers, he may ride the shuttle a time or two. Which is also why is really like to see him get his feet wet this season.

 

Also agree with alarp33 that the only thing really holding back Romero is missed time. I am absolutely A-OK with someone that young and talented being brought along a little slow at this point.

[alarp33]

Zero percent chance they like Gonsalves more than Berrios. No way.

Who's they? Plenty of prospect evaluators thought Berrios was a #3 starter, plenty think Gonsalves is a #3 starter? There certainly is one out there who likes Gonsalves the prospect more than Berrios the prospect (not me for what it's worth)

[Jham]

Tigers will hold on to Justin try to compete, then sell at the deadline next year if necessary. Why deal with 1 team when you can try to drive the price up through competition later? As others have pointed out, the tigers are built to win now. They can't shed all the contracts, so might as well give their guys one last run at it.

[howeda7]

If Verlander were worth the prospects being listed here, he wouldn't be an August trade candidate. If we're taking the salary, we're not giving up Gonsalves, Romero, etc. 

[howeda7]

Let's really open the vault...offer to take Zimmerman if they throw in Verlander. 

[Major League Ready]

 

Purchasing a similar level talent will require somewhere around triple the money.  This ownership group simply isn't going to do that.  You've argued at length yourself that it simply isn't going to happen.

 

I also would much rather spend that kind of money on 2-3 years than 6-7.  Plus, the point is, Verlander hasn't declined a lot, and there's no reason to expect him to in the next couple years.

 

His war is 1/2 what it was last year in his age 33 season.  To suggest there is no reason to expect he will continue to decline ignores one of the most consistently proven results in baseball.  Aging pitchers, especially power pitchers decline, generally starting in the early 30s.   You are also ignoring that we are talking about his age 35 & 36 seasons. 

 

It might take 168M to get a SP that produces at the level he is at this year but I doubt it will cost quite that much.  It won't take nearly that much to get what he will produce if he declines at the expected rate with the expected rate defined as the normal degradation rate of all starting pitchers.  Obviously he could defy the odds but good business decisions do not defy the odds.

 

It's also at bit misguided to say it costs 3 times as much even if the spend 3 times as much when you are comparing a 2-year contract to a 6 year contract.  AAV is a more accurate representation although the 6 year contract does have more risk.

 

If Verlander's decline is "normal", he is probably worth 4-5 war over the next 2 years.  Obviously, the prospects we trade could end up to be busts but I would bet they will yield considerably greater WAR over their 6 years of control.

 

Some fans fall in love with the idea of these big name guys hoping they defy the odds and remain great well past their prime.  It does happen but the odds are he is no better than average over the next couple years.

 

Mid market teams don't get the absolute top FA SPs.  It will always be very rare.  However, next year has a rather good supply of FA SPs.  We will also be in a good position the following year when Mauer, Santana, and Perkins come off the books.  We will also be a year away from Hughes coming off if they have not already bought him out.  That will be an enormous year for free agents.  In other words, supply will be at an extreme high which will help make it feasible for us to land a top FA SP.  The big markets teams will be chasing Bryce Harper, Josh Donaldson, Andrew McCutchen, David Price, Jose Fernandez, Manny Machado, Jason Heyward, Dallas Keuchel, Clayton Kershaw and Matt Harvey.  Mosat of the deals will be absolutely enormous.  We can't compete on the $300M contracts but we should be able to get someone that projects to be at least as good as Verlander has been this year.

[nicksaviking]

 

A few things to keep in mind about Verlander outside the huge hurdle of his no-trade clause:

1. Do we have any indication the Tigers even care about shedding payroll?

2. If Verlander continues to pitch moderately well, his trade value actually increases as his contract winds down.

 

Yeah I'm skeptical about the Tigers requests. The Tigers need to rebuild, they very well may be more interested in prospects than getting money off the books.

 

If the shoe was on the other foot, we'd all be screaming that the Twins need to eat the salary and get top end prospects. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

They traded 2 impending free agents. Wilson is arb eligible. If he remained a closer and got closer money  his trade could be about saving money.  Had they traded Kinsler you could say they were dumping money. The issue would be definitive if there was a market for him. There have been  quotes about not adding further payroll. I don't think Avila can withstand another bad contract is more the issue than anything with that type of statement.  Sanchez has been a money drain. Victor Martinez is becoming one. Zimmerman has been one. and Cabrera will be paid for a lot of past deeds for a long time. There are expensive contracts any team would love to shed.

It's entirely possible the Tigers are eager to shed payroll. It's also entirely possible they do not care. They ran the team at a loss for a long time. Until I see an indication they operate differently under new ownership, I will assume they'll continue doing what they've done for the past 10+ years.

 

And if they don't care about money, I suspect Verlander isn't even on the table for two reasons:

 

1. He's the face of the franchise and beloved in Detroit.

 

2. If he continues to pitch 110 ERA+ seasons, his trade value is higher 10 months from now. By keeping a fan favorite in town and paying him loads of money, they may actually improve the team in both the short- and long-term by holding on to Justin for now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Yeah I'm skeptical about the Tigers requests. The Tigers need to rebuild, they very well may be more interested in prospects than getting money off the books.

 

If the shoe was on the other foot, we'd all be screaming that the Twins need to eat the salary and get top end prospects. 

Yep and yep. If I'm the Tigers and considering a Verlander trade, part of the deal is taking on a large portion of his salary for a better prospect return.

[alarp33]

One name I haven't seen mentioned, likely because he's equally unattainable (no trade to 21 teams) is Jeff Samardzijia.  

 

What would you prefer, Samardzijia (3 years, $59 million) or Verlander (2 years, $56 million).  

[Otto von Ballpark]

One name I haven't seen mentioned, likely because he's equally unattainable (no trade to 21 teams) is Jeff Samardzijia.

 

What would you prefer, Samardzijia (3 years, $59 million) or Verlander (2 years, $56 million).

I think no one mentions him because they don't want to spell his name.

 

I would prefer Verlander. Shark has basically been a ~2 bWAR pitcher his whole career except one season. Verlander has been better than that every year except one, and he should top 4 again this year.

[nicksaviking]

 

One name I haven't seen mentioned, likely because he's equally unattainable (no trade to 21 teams) is Jeff Samardzijia.  

 

What would you prefer, Samardzijia (3 years, $59 million) or Verlander (2 years, $56 million).  

 

I remember hearing reports that Samardzijia made it clear to the Giants that he would not waive his no trade clause except maybe to a specific team or two, like the Cubs or Dodgers. 

[alarp33]

 

I remember hearing reports that Samardzijia made it clear to the Giants that he would not waive his no trade clause except maybe to a specific team or two, like the Cubs or Dodgers. 

 

Yeah I read that as well.  I think its only 21 teams he has on his no trade, probably a certainty the Twins are one of those 21, but I'm not sure Verlander would be any more attainable or likely to waive his no trade to come here. 

[gocgo]

I'd stay the course.  We aren't going to win the WS this year, but it would be nice to make the playoffs even if for a game.  I think we have the team to do that along with the schedule to do that.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think no one mentions him because they don't want to spell his name.

I would prefer Verlander. Shark has basically been a ~2 bWAR pitcher his whole career except one season. Verlander has been better than that every year except one, and he should top 4 again this year.

Agreed. Samardzidiaiaiajiaialol has always had a reputation he simply doesn't deserve. He's paid like a Cueto or Price or Verlander but just isn't good enough to warrant that price tag. Hell, he's a half-step below someone like Anibal Sanchez in his prime.

 

And this may be my imagination but he always struck me as something of a jerk.

[Thrylos]

 

Ya, just stop trying to get better. Just trust the prospects, or sign reclamation projects. Never change. Sigh.

 

I'd trade those prospects for someone like Archer, but not Verlander.  I think that Verlander is a number 3 pitcher who will regress, because he is at that stage of this career.  E. Santana-like. 

 

They do need to address pitching, but they need better than Verlander.  They need at least one starter better than Berrios and another at that level.  I am not sure that Verlander will be that in 2018-20...

 

Plus, I hate trading prospects who may amount to something within the division.

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

What would you prefer, Samardzijia (3 years, $59 million) or Verlander (2 years, $56 million).  

 

To tell you the truth, I'd rather see them go for something like 6/$60M (Yu Darvish's contract) to get Otani whose age is closer to that of the Twins' core players

[Tomj14]

 

I'm sorry I'm not trying to be argumentative but I'm really not understanding your argument. You want another Berrios on the staff because you think he is worth $200 million but also want to trade the prospects who are like Berrios but a year or two behind?

 

FWIW, I am not against making a trade for a pitcher at all.  I would not trade top prospects for Justin Verlander and this contract

hmmm, which twins pitching prospect is like Berrios?

 

[Tomj14]

 

To tell you the truth, I'd rather see them go for something like 6/$60M (Yu Darvish's contract) to get Otani whose age is closer to that of the Twins' core players

Don't forget the $51.7 bid to buy the negotiating rights

[Thrylos]

 

Don't forget the $51.7 bid to buy the negotiating rights

 

I am not (thus the "something like").  Still less annual contract value than Verlander, Samardzijia etc, plus the Twins will have the pre-prime and prime seasons, unlike the older pitchers

[Pardon My Dinger]

To tell you the truth, I'd rather see them go for something like 6/$60M (Yu Darvish's contract) to get Otani whose age is closer to that of the Twins' core players

Now you've done it. Got me all excited about shohei again and now I'm going to spend a whole day on YouTube instead of getting work done. Thanks a lot.

[markos]

 

I am not (thus the "something like").  Still less annual contract value than Verlander, Samardzijia etc, plus the Twins will have the pre-prime and prime seasons, unlike the older pitchers

The system has changed since Davish was signed. Otani is under the same hard cap rules that apply to young international signings from the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, etc. He can't sign for anything close to the contract you suggested. I think he is staying in Japan until he is 25 and no longer under the hard-cap rules.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

One name I haven't seen mentioned, likely because he's equally unattainable (no trade to 21 teams) is Jeff Samardzijia.  

 

What would you prefer, Samardzijia (3 years, $59 million) or Verlander (2 years, $56 million).  

Verlander has been a better pitcher in the AL than Shark in the NL as well as AL, for similar total contract, I'll taker Verlander

 

Verlander

2016    137 ERA+  10 K9   2.3 BB9

2017    111 ERA +   9 K9   3.6 BB9

Career 122 ERA+   8.5 K9  2.7 BB9

 

Shark

2016   105 ERA+   7.4 K9  2.4    BB9

2017    88  ERA+   9.2 K9  1.3   BB9

Career 96 ERA+    8.2 K9  2.7   BB9

[whydidnt]

Mid market teams don't get the absolute top FA SPs. It will always be very rare. However, next year has a rather good supply of FA SPs. We will also be in a good position the following year when Mauer, Santana, and Perkins come off the books. We will also be a year away from Hughes coming off if they have not already bought him out. That will be an enormous year for free agents. In other words, supply will be at an extreme high which will help make it feasible for us to land a top FA SP. The big markets teams will be chasing Bryce Harper, Josh Donaldson, Andrew McCutchen, David Price, Jose Fernandez, Manny Machado, Jason Heyward, Dallas Keuchel, Clayton Kershaw and Matt Harvey. Mosat of the deals will be absolutely enormous. We can't compete on the $300M contracts but we should be able to get someone that projects to be at least as good as Verlander has been this year.

It's likely 1/2 these guys either re-sign or lose value because of injury or non-performance before they become free agents. That's just how the market works these days. I grow tired of hearing that the Twins can't compete for top-tier free agents. The truth is they can compete, but chose not to. They certainly can't sign 4-5 of these guys, but there isn't any reason they can't or shouldn't try to attract a top tier free agent from time to time.

[Major League Ready]

 

To tell you the truth, I'd rather see them go for something like 6/$60M (Yu Darvish's contract) to get Otani whose age is closer to that of the Twins' core players

 

Obviously, he is not an established MLB player but this is the kind of creative approach that could help this team stay in serious contention for several years.  I like it and the new CBA rules might make it possible for us to compete with the big markets.
 

[Major League Ready]

 

It's likely 1/2 these guys either re-sign or lose value because of injury or non-performance before they become free agents. That's just how the market works these days. I grow tired of hearing that the Twins can't compete for top-tier free agents. The truth is they can compete, but chose not to. They certainly can't sign 4-5 of these guys, but there isn't any reason they can't or shouldn't try to attract a top tier free agent from time to time.

 

It’s somewhat irrelevant if they resign or not.  The point was that they will absorb the available dollars and that the cumulative effect will put the Twins in a better position to compete with teams that normally have far more dollars to spend on free agents.  Where they sign or if they are available does not change the financial realities of all the elite players becoming FAs in the same year.

 

I too get tired of hearing the whining about the Twins “elect / chose” not to compete for the elite free agents as if it’s only the Twins.  I have asked repeatedly for those of you who say this to give examples of when a team with equivalent or less revenue sign one of these elite SPs to a 5+ year contract.  I even went so far as to list them at one point.  Yet, you and others just ignore the fact that other teams with similar revenue also have been unwilling or unable to sign elite FA SPs.   With the level of baseball knowledge here its certainly not that you and others are not aware of history.  You just refuse to accept it. At least put it in the appropriate context and don’t single out the Twins like it’s just this organization.  Complain that none of the mid-market or smaller teams are willing to spend with reckless abandon in order to keep up with teams with $100-200M more in revenue.   At least then the argument would be presented in an accurate context.

 

The only semi-reasonable examples of it happening are Grienke and Scherzer.  However, Arizona had just signed a billion dollar TV contract so Grienke is only a reasonable example if you ignore the enormous TV contract Arizona had just signed.   If the Twins sign a billion dollar TV contract and wont spend, I will be the first to condemn them.  Until then, you are complaining that they refuse to act like a business.

 

Washington is a considerably bigger market but the Scherzer signing is a somewhat reasonable example.  Their revenue has averaged around $300M the last 3 years.  That pays for Scherzer twice so I won't not characterize the Nationals as a fair example but they obviously dont have the spending power of the very top markets.