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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    The Dodgers and Astros have used their talented young pitchers in relief as they hit the majors. It didn’t stop them from contributing as full time starters later in their career. The Twins have several near ready pitchers with options. They can make the back half of the pen much more flexible. I am all for adding a reliever to the top end of the pen with Duran. I would not be excited about adding a reliever without options for the back half of the pen. I would rather use some of the AAA starter talent in that role.
  2. jorgenswest
    Moran had experience in that 1.3 to 2.3 role last year. He has the advantage of options when he need to go longer. It might be better to use Maeda but those outings are often lower leverage.
  3. jorgenswest
    What experience? He was a reliever for the Dodgers in the last month of the 2018 and 2019 seasons. Virtually all of those appearance were shorter stints. He did have 2 consecutive long relief appearances in 2019. He was a starter through August and his first two relief appearances were 4 innings. One looks like he followed an opener and the other a piggyback. Neither looks like an unplanned long relief role. On September 8 he followed an opener and took over the game in the third inning. The opener did not give up a run. On September 2 the starter pitched 5 innings and he pitched 4. The Dodgers scored 4 runs the half inning after he entered and he stayed in to finish the game. That is the only possible long relief appearance and his entry could have been planned for that game in a September piggy back start. It would have his natural day to start. The Twins will have to look elsewhere to find a pitcher with experience in that role. It will be hard to find. Teams have stopped utilizing long relievers.
  4. jorgenswest
    For some reason this role doesn’t exist anymore. Joe Sheehan wrote about it in 2017. Last there were relievers that average more than 2 innings an outing(minimum 50 relief innings). Trevor Williams and Jamie Barría had the closest to a traditional low leverage long relief role. I think it is more important to have pitchers with options in the back end of the pen. Moran had several 2 inning stints and a 3 inning stint last year. After some of those outing the Twins were able to send him to St. Paul and bring up another arm. Most relievers were originally starters. They are capable of throwing multiple innings. They just aren’t used that way any longer. Instead high leverage relievers throw maximum effort in shorter stints and the low leverage relievers are shuttled out to AAA after a multiple inning game. Baseball is always shifting and we may see the long reliever make a return. Perhaps the Twins should be pioneering that effort.
  5. jorgenswest
    He missed 2020 to the pandemic. Prior that he was in A ball mostly as a teenager. The last two years instead of learning and adjusting to the speed of the game in AA and AAA he was on the major league roster spending a lot of time on the bench. A big part of fundamentals is the speed of the game and how much faster the game is at the major league level compared even to AAA. He mostly jumped from A with a year off. That is a huge speed of game jump. Mental mistakes should not be a surprise.
  6. jorgenswest
    Celestino is 23 years old. He was born in 1999 and is one of the youngest on the 40 man roster. Larnach, Wallner and Kirilloff were born in 1997. He doesn’t even gave a full season of at bats in the minors since his time in A ball in 2019. If anything I think the deal for Taylor shows the twins belief in him. He needs that time in AAA. It might not go well at first as he makes adjustments but I expect he will have a good career in the majors with some years as a starter. Sometimes up the middle players are pushed up because of need. It happened to Eduardo Escobar. I am sure many has no hope for him with his poor batting performance through age 24. It could be the same with Celestino. Is it really obvious to all that he is the big loser in the Taylor trade? It seems like this time in the minors could help set him on a path to a lucrative major league career.
  7. jorgenswest
    Falvey did add a few minor league free agents off the 40 that add to the depth. Are the Twins thin at catcher? I took a look at other 40 man rosters. The Astros and several others have 2. Some of the teams with 3 are protecting a prospect who won’t be ready this year. Others like the Yankees have a guy like Rortvedt. I would think Wolters is at least as capable as Rortvedt to step in with his track record of good defense and experience calling games. They both might be current versions of Drew Butera but at least Wolters doesn’t need to be in the 40 until needed. I also like the addition of Willi Castro. He is 25. Detroit pushed him to the majors at 22. They had good reason to be excited. He had an OPS of .833 as a 22 year old shortstop in AAA. He hasn’t hit yet but shortstops that get pushed up the system with their glove can have that bat delayed. He certainly gives them some young experienced depth in AAA behind Farmer, Gordon and eventually Lewis. They also have Martin and possibly Julien ready soon though Julien’s infield spot may be 1B.
  8. jorgenswest
    I too am hopeful but I wonder why he fell to 48. There have been other promising pitchers with TJ surgery that haven’t fallen that far. Teams knew that Giolito was shut down due to elbow trouble and TJ was likely. He fell to 16. Last year Lesko fell to 15. Why was he there at 48?
  9. jorgenswest
    Arraez is below average at 2B (career DRS of -2, UZR150 of -4.8, RAA of -11). I don’t think we respect how hard it is to play a position at the major league level even at his below average rate. I don’t think Julien is close to that level yet. Julien hasn’t had a position. In college he was primarily a DH his first year with trials at 2B, LF and 1B. He was moved to 3B his second year at Auburn. He lost 2020 to the pandemic and then the Twins tried him at 2B, LF, 3B and 1B in 2021. Last year he played 94 games at 2B. Some players move around positions because they have the skills to play several and utility is in their future. Some move around in hopes of finding any position that will fit. I am not sure if Julien is ready for any position at a passable level. Do the Twins invest the year in AAA in trying to make him a 2B? Do they abandon 2B and hope for 1B and invest the time there? If the bat is ready do they put him at DH and use him in the field as infrequently as possible? edit: I wondered if Luis Arraez was the best comp. Julien has a less average, more power, more walks and more strike outs. I went back through the old New Britain AA clubs found someone that might match that on base with some power profile better. How does he compare to Bobby Kielty? Kielty was an asset with the glove in the outfield but their batting lines in the minors might be a better fit.
  10. jorgenswest
    “Stabilization” point for OBP against is 540 PA and SLG against is 550 AB. OPS wouldn’t be less than that. For his career Jax has faced 76 number 3 hitters (67 abs). I think at this point the sample is one to be ignored. Your eye test doesn’t need to be ignored. Data can never replace a skilled eye. So much more can be seen by the eye in a short time span than can be seen by the data.
  11. jorgenswest
    I think they need another right handed bat. It will be Garlick or someone they acquire. Does Gurriel help more than Garlick?
  12. jorgenswest
    Is there any reasonable way to get Kepler, Larnach, Gordon, Kirilloff and Gallo in the line up? I suppose Gordon could play 3B but I don’t want Miranda in the short side of a platoon. One of those players needs to be traded or in AAA. They need a right handed bat in that spot. The best in house candidate is Garlick. I would sign Gurriel. I think they need one more reliever also. I think Fulmer over Megill would be a helpful upgrade.
  13. jorgenswest
    I see a pitcher with an ERA 19% better than league average over the last three years. How many starters in the league have performed better over the last 3 season? It has to be top 50 and maybe top 30. Those starters are hard to find and expensive to acquire. Bundy’s ERA over the last three years is 14% worse than league average. I wouldn’t look at a partial season of data for Lopez anymore than I would look at the drop in the performance of Arraez as the season progressed. Partial seasons project forward poorly. We simply disagree on the significance of that split in projecting performance for this year. Some see Bundy. I don’t.
  14. jorgenswest
    My uninformed opinion from my recliner thinks he has tried to hard to hit the ball to the opposite field. The result has been too much weak contact and a lower launch angle. He needs to go up to the plate looking for a pitch to attack and drive it to the pull side.
  15. jorgenswest
    I guess you can throw out the early season but ERAs were down across the league. Bundy had an ERA in the 2s for March/April. I think it is far better to look at a three year sample for projecting forward than truncating the previous year.
  16. jorgenswest
    Do the Twins have a better win projection in 2023 as a result of this trade? If the answer is no, it is reasonable to oppose this trade. The win projection after the Rogers trade dropped last year. The argument was that we had control of Paddock and Pagán for 2023. 2023 would be better. How did that turn out? I do like the trade. I also get an assessment that Arraez is more valuable to the 2023 Twins than López. Unlike the Rogers trade the Twins have time to fix the line up before the season starts. I hope this isn’t the last move.
  17. jorgenswest
    Isn’t he a switch hitter that hits better against right handed pitching over his career? It seems like we have outfielders that hit right handed pitching better than left handed pitching.
  18. jorgenswest
    https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIN/MIN197307040.shtml Attendance 45,890! Bane pitched well. I wasn’t there but I was listening to Herb Carneal and Ray Christensen (I think Halsey Hall retired year previous).
  19. jorgenswest
    It would be fast. Eddie Bane was the fastest. He debuted in the majors right after being drafted 11th overall from Arizona State.
  20. jorgenswest
    With the way starters today are used platooning really doesn’t help enough for a catcher at the bottom on the order. He will likely still see two at bats against a right handed pitcher and sometimes only 1 against that left handed starter. Since teams are more reluctant to pinch hit for their catcher he will see plenty of right handed pitchers in those games started by lefties. In fact while his OPS last season was .909 against left handed pitching, his OPS in games started by a left handed pitcher was .670. The samples are too small but I used the data to illustrate the small impact of trying to start him almost every game when the Twins are facing a left handed pitcher. Did you know that he has a better career OPS in games started by a right handed pitcher (.688 to .648) even though he hits left handed pitchers better? The best way to get him at bats against a left handed pitcher is to slot him in between two left handed batters in the line up and let him feast on the left handed relievers.
  21. jorgenswest
    I would give him the minor league deal. If he takes a minor league deal there are teams like the Marlins that offer a better path of opportunity. He also might seek a bigger contract going overseas.
  22. jorgenswest
    The best way not to be used is the be the Pirates and not participate. All negotiations will use the buyers against each other. If you don’t want the Twins to be used you must not want them to buyers.
  23. jorgenswest
    Reading this thread reminds me of the Eduardo Escobar threads at a similar age. It isn’t unusual for an up the middle player to arrive before their bat is ready yet still develop to their potential while spending time on the bench. I would bet on Celestino in his prime years being a starting outfielder.
  24. jorgenswest
    The sample size for those stats needs to be multiple seasons to be meaningful. Using that data in a sample of 127 innings would be very unreliable. The other ERA projectors are more reliable ERA projectors but not great. Whichever data is used a three year sample is much more reliable in projecting forward.
  25. jorgenswest
    I think they go in with understanding of the risk. It is the injury risk that makes him available to a mid/small market team. I’d take the risk.
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