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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Who is not on the 40 that should be this year? Lee and Severino? They would need to be destroying AA and they really aren’t. Look at Severino’s strike out rate. His 132 WRC+ is good but not unusual. Lee’s is 122. Jake Cave is at 170 in AAA. These numbers aren’t very helpful in determining readiness. Do you mean if they kept Steer? They have had guys that they could put on the 60 day IL when they need space. They haven’t needed it. There is no roster crunch. There won’t be next year.
  2. jorgenswest
    His BABIP against lefties this year is .411. Last year it was .279 against lefties.
  3. jorgenswest
    Julien will get significant plate appearances this year. Wallner is getting his opportunity. Last year the same was said about Steer. If he were still on the roster he would have hit his way into at bats. Hitters will emerge. Every year the number of opportunities is greater than the supply of hitters. I am not selling any young player with upside in fear of no place to play in return for a rental. Not this year.
  4. jorgenswest
    If the Astros are interested in Gallo I am in. That sounds like a parallel trade of prospects for which I am an advocate.
  5. jorgenswest
    There is space for all of these players as long as they hit. I read so often of the crunch that never comes. This year they may have as many as 18 players with 100 plate appearances (Lewis and Gordon in the 90s and Wallner 10 starts away). They need a lot of good hitters. I am not trading a guy like Miranda or Severino that have options left and have more upside than anyone they will get for the short term. As for Gordon I have much more faith in his statcast number than the for too small sample to look at slash stats from this year. With his speed his BABIP will be over .300 and not .179. I think he is much more likely to hit like the 22 Gordon next year. The walk rate is too low but that is something that goes up with plate appearances. I don’t think it is wise to look at this partial season without giving more weight to the bigger picture 3 year look. That is why I want to avoid Thomas and Candelario and also want to avoid selling low on upside for a short term rental. I will swap upside for upside though if they move Miranda or Larnach or Wallner for a player with similar age and control that is a better fit on the roster. They will need over 15 position players and maybe as many as 20 next year that can help win games. There is a place for Miranda, Gordon, Severino and Lewis.
  6. jorgenswest
    If he is the hitter he was in 21-22 they will keep him. There will be a spot on the roster.
  7. jorgenswest
    You can add Gordon to the list. There is always a place for the Miranda we saw last year. They have 13 spots for hitters. There will be injuries and slumps. Severino is a long way a way with his strike out rate and poor glove. I don’t put much faith in a good minor league OPS with poor strike out walk numbers. Lee may come up and show he needs more time. It might be 2025 before he is a regular. Farmer turns 33 next month. I don’t see a log jam for a good hitter.
  8. jorgenswest
    I hope it is boring. I hope any trade is of the parallel type. Trading out Lopez for Floro is a parallel trade. They really need to avoid selling low on Miranda for a rental. We don’t know how much that shoulder has impacted his season and they need that right handed bat. I don’t want to sell low on Larnach either. If they package one Larnach or Wallner for a similarly aged right handed OF that would be a parallel trade. The best hopes for them are on the roster already. They need Kepler to be a league average RF which is possible. They need to get Buxton back in CF even it it means he is there once a series, DHs once and rests the third game. That gives some DH space for Wallner and Julien. They need Polanco to come back healthy and hit. They Stewart to come back throwing like he was in the first half. They need to give Gallo’s spot to Larnach and Wallner. I see the Angels trading two of their best prospects. I was advocating for those moves last year. This year I hope for boring.
  9. jorgenswest
    They could not have matched the Mariners offer. They didn’t have a prospect that was close to Marte. There were three playoff caliber starters moved at the deadline. Castillo was out of their reach and Montas ended up injured like Mahle. It is fair to criticize the deadline trades but it is the real risk of being a buyer at the deadline, Any that criticize must also be strong advocates for not going for it at the trade deadline and never be in the role of a buyer. You can’t have it both ways.
  10. jorgenswest
    Do those OPS numbers have any meaning in that size sample? Pagán has four years of negative WPAs. I believe Aaron Gleeman started his WPA since 2020 is the worst in baseball. Floro has a negative WPA this year but it was positive the previous three. I would give Floro the ball in high leverage situations before Pagán or Lopez but that is a low bar right now.
  11. jorgenswest
    Lane Thomas has an xWOBA a little lower than Kepler and Gallo. He is an extreme buy high with a BABIP much higher than his career norm. His xSLG would rank 14th on the Twins. His hard hit and barrels rate is almost an extract match to Farmer. I trust those statcast numbers to predict the rest of the season better than the slash stats. The Nationals would be wise to sell in spite of his years of control. I hope the Twins stay away.
  12. jorgenswest
    Being a buyer at the deadline is always a risk. Teams have to overpay to beat the offers of other teams. Pitching is particularly risky. The Twins can avoid these risks this year by going the current roster and not buying.
  13. jorgenswest
    It is hard to trust any numbers at St. Paul and at the same time ignore his stretch in the majors from 2017-2021 with an OPS+ of 85. He may have figured something out or he might be skilled at hitting AAA pitching. I don’t think his stat line is helpful in knowing whether he is a different hitter at 29.
  14. jorgenswest
    I am not sure Julien has the hands to play 1B. There will be plenty of bounced throws and scoops he will need to handle and that he hasn’t shown that ability at 2B mishandling throws from catcher and some grounders. I certainly would want to see him there for two or three weeks in AAA before playing him there for the Twins. We need his bat and I think the only spots are DH and 2B.
  15. jorgenswest
    Nationals would be wise to sell high. His 2022 performance was abysmal. This year his batting average and slugging percentage exceed his xBA and xSLG. I would go with Polanco.
  16. jorgenswest
    I concur with Falvey. Everybody can fortify the pen so it isn’t news. It is a perfect meaningless answer. If they do have interests in other spots there is no reason to broadcast that interest to the rest of the teams.
  17. jorgenswest
    If they trade it needs to be someone clearly better. Mountcastle probably can help against a lefty. For his career he has not hit right handed pitching well enough for a 1B. Would he be a better fit on the roster than Solano? He has more power but 70 strike outs with only 12 walks suggest to me that Solano might be the better fit on this strike out prone team.
  18. jorgenswest
    He was pretty significant in yesterday’s win.
  19. jorgenswest
    Long term plans? That would equate to contract extension talk. Probably not. 2024? Absolutely. He is the young. Played very well in AAA at 21. Rushed to the majors he stumbled but the potential he showed very young in AAA is showing up. He is in the midst of an age grouping of Larnach, Jeffers and Wallner and like them has time to improve.
  20. jorgenswest
    I think we would be buying high on Thomas in a career year. The Nationals need good under control players. Why trade him unless they feel they are selling high?
  21. jorgenswest
    It is not ideal to call up someone from AAA right after a start. If that is the opt out date they probably need to make that decision now. Otherwise they end up short in the bullpen.
  22. jorgenswest
    Do the win this series without Emilio Pagán?
  23. jorgenswest
    Maybe Kirilloff with Gallo or Julien at 1B
  24. jorgenswest
    A six man rotation and 7 man pen is unwise. Are there any teams regularly using a seven man pen? One day after the break and the Twins 8 man bullpen is already over worked again. I have no ability to assess Keuchel’s readiness but if they believe he is one of their top 5 starters they need him on the roster now. Push Maeda to the bullpen. No to a 6 man rotation.
  25. jorgenswest
    I made the assumption that he was working hard over the break both on throwing and hitting. The work on the off days can have more strain than a game.
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