JD-TWINS

The Cardinal’s finances aren’t hurt if they finish last once every 15 years. They’ll draw their usual 3 million people. Why would we trade Festa / Varland - Kirilloff for a guy that has 1 season of control after this. The emphasis in the article seems to be written by an Assistant GM for the Cardinals. “Let’s make sure they are happy……” I’m a realist & understand the trade needs to work for both sides. Why would we trade a 1B that the Cardinals can build around for years (hence their motivation) plus 2 young arms they would like and take on a guy for 1.3 seasons??? Kirilloff is a building block in St. Louis but he sucks for the Twins future???? Goldschmidt for Varland - SWR - Moran, their pitching request, may make some sense. They get upside arms with control & we get a guy to play 1B for 2 playoff runs ………we use Kirilloff to displace Gallo in LF. No financial concerns involved. Win - Win. Kirilloff is potentially Justin Morneau - he’s in his first, healthy full year. Look up Goldschmidt’s first full year………..very similar numbers……Goldschmidt had more AB’s in 2012 - more homers - more strikeouts - same OPS, around .830. Kirilloff for nearly anyone that’s not a dynamic athlete (15 guys in baseball) is crazy IMO, at this point in his developing career! He has 35 double, gap power but probably only 30 double speed. He can hit 20 HR a season easily - has 9 now in ‘23 with 195 AB’s. I’m guessing .285 career BA. - .825 OPS and an average, at best LF & occasional 1B/DH. Would love Goldschmidt - makes us a contender immediately!!! Can’t trade Kirilloff to make it happen.

Play-off Line-up with POLANCO & LEWIS back……. v. RH pitching: CC - SS - .231BA - .715 OPS Julien - DH - .318BA - .968 OPS Kirilloff - 1B - .285BA - .831 OPS Kepler - RF - .224BA - .730 OPS Polanco - 2B - .250BA - .741 OPS Lewis - 3B - .326BA - .827 OPS Castro - CF - .247BA - .688 OPS Jeffers - C - .261BA - .787 OPS Gallo - LF - .182BA - .770 OPS V. LH pitching: Taylor - Farmer - Solano - Buxton in & Gallo - Polanco - Kepler - Julien out……..Kirilloff to RF - Castro to LF - Farmer to 2B Looks like a competitive club to me with Thielbar & Stewart back & reasonably sound health elsewhere. 1 less pitcher, down to 12 guys in playoffs.

Seems Buxton or Julien is going to have to play 1B next year - may sound crazy but if you can’t run routinely it’s the place you end up. Check with Donovan Solano - ask Luis Arraez - ask Ernie Banks - ask the other 1,000 guys that ended up moving from SS or OF to 1B over the course of their careers.

The guys is helping us win games nearly everyday……..he allows in game moves to be made seamlessly with his flexibility ……..no reason to option him to see if we have a couple guys in AAA that can do the same things. Grass is always greener…… Castro has been a steady contributor! I don’t care if guys in AAA are getting a shot - play great and you’ll get a shot when one’s available. Play well and you’ll get that acknowledged and you’ll stay in AAA. No need to “see how guys will do”……the Big Leagues are not for experimentation unless a team is out of the race or steadily declining. It’s been acknowledged, our biggest problem is hitting in our 3 hole……..it’s not our Utility Guy!

Can’t afford a roster spot to see what Gordon may bring at this point. Best off letting him remain inactive/injured-recovering. The extra roster spot as of September 1 will not be wasted this year - it may be for the return of Buxton after a long rest - rehab?

Kirilloff has absolutely zero chance of moving down……….Castro being sent down would be nearly unimaginable……..Julien is our best hitter & not going anywhere, per Rocco. Wallner or Buxton………Gallo being DFA’d is a possibility but pretty doubtful. May just come up with a reason for Polanco to extend his healing process?

Agreed - the perpetual thought that we have guys in “our system” that will easily outperform guys on the Big Club is wishful thinking about 80% of the time. Castro, with some defensive reps in fall ball/winter league/spring training, may be our starting CF in ‘24 & going forward. I may be the biggest Nick Gordon proponent there is but Castro plays IF/OF as well, runs bases better, has a bigger frame, a great arm, exceptional speed, & more long-term power potential. Gordon - Larnach - Miranda - Sands - Winder - SWR are all pieces to group together however suitable to net some help for our Big Club.

Addition/improvement by subtraction: Buxton to IL for nearly a month…….Gallo DFA’d in 10 days if no trade by deadline. Removing two guys floundering below the Mendoza Line has to improve your offense - has to improve - right?? We see Polanco by August 4th - Lewis by August 18th. Get to add a guy on September 1 to the roster. I like our chances w/o any trades. Thielbar & Stewart would help by mid-August! Sounds like we may want to replace Sands on staff with Kuechel by this weekend or we let Kuechel walk? Interesting guy - could be as bad as our other long relievers to date or may have a little shine in 2-3 inning stints?

LEWIS #1 need at 3B - need every ounce of available offense THIELBAR #2 need in Relief - experience & depth STEWART #3 need in Relief - depth POLANCO #4 need at 2B - played 65 games w/o and only 30 games with to date. Paddack - no chance he pitches in high leverage contests in September - no roster space for him. Maybe gets a look last 2 weeks of season if race is decided.

I do think the Turner v. CC clubhouse issues would go away!! Fans don’t like Correa around the league let alone a former Dodger. Teoscar is leading the league in K’s per either a TD contributor or the Athletic today. We got that covered with Joe & Max!!

I live in Cincy - Twins guy obviously - IMO Fairchild (.743 OPS & fast) is better athlete & better upside for CF. He’s in AAA because they don’t have room for him. I suggested him & Grichuk from Rockies a couple places here………gotta say Castro is winning me over for that spot, ongoing!

Ober is our 2nd best asset on the staff…….this assumes Lopez gets his act together on Home Runs allowed. Ober showed last night that he has the character to have a bad inning (terrible inning) and come out if it composed. Retired 15 of last 18 batters faced! He did this immediately following all 3 of the guys mentioned failing to do this in the same week. Cannot trade Ober!!!! A mix of Ryan & Gray’s temperament and 3 pitches he can control in and around the zone. 6’9” - so a bit of a unicorn for the opposing hitters as well - a bonus. Team control for 5 more years.

Not personal…….Somebody has to build a case for why a team would trade for Gallo. This keeps coming up in Forum as if it just needs to be offered to the market. Has to be a reason other than he’s no good for us & we want to move him to clear roster space. I’d wait for the DFA & hope to claim him on waivers or I’d make the Twins pay 80% of his salary balance. No reason to do Twins a favor.

Rockies Grichuk at the high end - or Reds Fairchild at the low end for CF. Honestly, the more I watch I think Castro can and is growing into our CF! Can still play Taylor there late & v. LH pitching but Castro has plus speed & a plus arm…….needs reps. He may be as good or better overall option than either of the guys above? Particularly in ‘24 & beyond. Not sure if Turner & CC mesh in the locker room??? Correa is getting booed by fans in Seattle years after the cheating incident & Turner was on that Dodgers team!

Who wants an apparently broken down 2B making $10M & a career .190 hitter making $11M????

Last outing it was the 2nd inning & then he was fine through the 6th. Just gets waaay too fine and his waste pitches are worthless…….starts the ball 14” off the ground and it travels 56 feet and hits at front of batter’s box. I’d say 1/3 of his pitches were sliders outside & half of those were bounced……over a dozen balls bounced. Can’t routinely get ahead and then throw 2 of next 3 pitches wide in the dirt……there’s no way a hitter is going to offer at a pitch that never sniffs the zone out of his hand!!! Then you hang a couple curveballs in the zone and you’re down 2 runs in 10 minutes. Last game he walked guys and gave up 5 singles……4 were soft grounders or flares….all in one inning. I think 6 runs in the 2nd - right? At any rate it was as ugly as last night. 4.35 ERA since May 1. His stuff is too good for that to be the case. Needs to change his approach when ahead with hitters….,can’t just waste 2 pitches in nearly every AB!

Kuechel …..6 innings - 94 pitches - no walks! Only 1 earned run. 3rd good start & interesting as an option to competently eat innings from Late July - September!!

Goldschmidt for 2 years seems pretty reasonable for $26M/year. Again, with Gray - Mahle - Kepler - Polanco - Gallo - Maeda gone in ‘24 we free up $65M from this year’s budget. Plant Kirilloff in LF & Wallner in RF. Lewis-Julien-CC with Goldschmidt, we’d (on paper) have the best offensive infield in the game. Jeffers at C. Rotate Buxton in CF & DH with the expectation of 100 games. Castro - Taylor - Farmer - Solano - Vazquez……a bunch of bench veterans ready to win immediately. I would offer the SS we got from Miami & SWR & Winder & Moran.

SWR - Winder - possibly Varland………..this group doesn’t net much back to Twins! Gotta hang on to Festa & Raya!! Paddack may be a fit in a group trade - doubtful of his market value before getting some innings.

……..or how about the All-Star pitcher enticing someone into a ground ball? Manager isn’t pitching…….if he brings Balazovic in after a run or two he gets blasted when Balazovic gives up a single and Gray’s runs score….”should leave starter in Rocco”……..players have to play well!

CF that may fit……Grichuk from Colorado……Fairchild from Cincinnati??

Sometimes it’s the 3rd inning or some other. His problem is focus and connecting that to command. He talks about losing it after every game. Jeffers blocked 8 pitches in one inning last night……completely lost on mound!!! Great STUFF - sucks to watch!

Kepler - double & HR………still, Solano works a walk to load bases & Max swings at first pitch??? ……slow roller to 1B.

Rocco’s philosophy hasn’t wavered a bit. Gray pitched the same way last year & was treated accordingly……he’d be cruising and give up a hit and a walk in a one run game and Rocco would pull him in the 5th or 6th & Gray would pop off in the press. If guys are somewhat under control Rocco is fine with them - if not - they are replaced. If he had the ‘23 staff last year they would have seen a lot more innings - no philosophy change because a competitive pitcher bitches in the press! Sonny - quit throwing the ball into the ground!!

4.35 ERA since May 1. He’s league average because he can’t seem to elevate his slider to start knee/thigh high and then break down from there. Jeffers had 8 blocked pitches in one inning - zero command. …….get him a run and back in 6th, score to 4-3 & in 6th he walks lead-off and then spikes one in the ground to score the guy from 3rd. Been skeptical of Julien because of the strikeout history & defense…..that’s gone. Gotta ride him in the line-up 5 of 6 days per week!! Polanco can fit in as needed. Some DH from him works v. RH pitching. Batting Buxton down in order is just moving the out in the line-up…….Please IL him for 3-4 weeks to see if 2 full weeks off & a couple re-hab weeks help him become average.