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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    Buxton played 140 games in 2017……92 games last year is his 2nd highest total over a 7 year career. Tired of hearing how DHing & scheduled time off is wasteful & won’t/can’t help. It’s certainly time to try something different!! Having no plan & playing him & hoping for the best hasn’t worked 6 of 7 years. Agreed that we need runs to win. Taylor is above average v. LH pitching. That helps. Buxton sporadically hits for power and in clutch situations, so they need him around for more than 3-4 months. Gotta think that would help. Gallo is a reach on offense, agreed. Gotta make the best out of him being in the roster. Some LF - some RF - some 1B. Gordon is above average v. RH pitching. Gallo - Gordon - Kepler won’t be bad offensively v. RH pitching. Our pitching & defense won’t hurt us…….if guys stay healthy, we’ll score plenty of runs. Will strike out too much as well!
  2. JD-TWINS
    Maeda starting the year in relief is a favorite of mine for months. Can’t waste Ober’s good health & limited inning build-up in St Paul. Maeda can prove himself and build-up innings while working a couple innings at a time out of Pen. After we get to June can sort/predict who the 5th guy should be when we get into August dog days. Might have 2 candidates or we might to bring someone up from St Paul. You’re probably right with the staff as laid out……I think, based on eye test, that an improved Megill is better than an improved Pagan. Pagan is tough to swallow for everyone on the 26 man!
  3. JD-TWINS
    Buxton in CF 80 games……Taylor in CF 40 games v. LH pitching………Gordon in CF 40 games v. RH pitching. (120 games of excellence in CF & 40 games of best offense with average D with Gordon……….sandwiched between elite Gallo & Kepler!) Buxton sits 30 games as needed & is DH 50 games. Hoping for maintained health.
  4. JD-TWINS
    I’m agreed that Team Israel, even with a few recognizable pro names, is not too scary. I’m hoping DeLeon can add enough depth in St. Paul, so that they risk shortening up one of the starters for a Big Club reliever when needed (Balazovic or SWR)
  5. JD-TWINS
    Gallo’s worth a shot now that he’s on the roster….can’t reverse time. It sure seems Kiriloff is out through most of April at this point. Assuming v. RH pitching that Gallo is at 1B & Gordon is in LF. He probably sits most games v. LH pitching. Best case in my mind, if Kiriloff comes back, is Gallo gets spread around ………Kepler in RF 115 games ……Gallo 40 games in RF. Gordon 80 games in LF …….Gallo 40 games in LF. With 50 games at 1B assuming Kiriloff is relatively fragile. Larnach 40 games in LF………depending upon the health of Kiriloff - we may carry Garlick at some point & he bats against LH pitching & plays left. Gordon plays 40 games in CF v. RH pitching……Taylor plays 40 games in CF v. LH pitching …….Buxton at DH v. LH pitching & plays 80 games in CF. VS. RH starter Gallo in LF - Gordon in CF - Kepler in RF ………40 games, while Buxton rests or DH’s.
  6. JD-TWINS
    Great work - very interesting. 2006: Santana & Liriano (starting) together from May through mid-July was magical……my recollection was Liriano was 1-2 in the Pen & got in the rotation in May sometime. I think he may have won 10 straight before he got hurt…..(12-3 for the season?) tried coming back in the last week or two but didn’t have anything. They were the most dominant pair, for maybe 10 weeks that I recall, ever. Would rank ‘23 Staff, prior to any results, as FOURTH on your list. However, I’d say this staff in ‘23 could be as good as any with the balance they have. I saw an article in the Athletic showing all 5 of this year’s starters in the Top 71 in MLB. All 5 in the top 45% of all starters. None in the Top 40 but all reasonably good! And then there’s Ober in the wings. They could easily get 4 guys in double figure wins with a couple winning 15-18. They’ll have the D & run support to achieve this. I think this team wins 95 games with reasonable health from everyday guys.
  7. JD-TWINS
    If we get to 2nd round of playoffs ….and he’s offered an extension mid-year, I think Gray would love to return. All the BS last year about getting pulled too early from games is just a competitive guy wanting to get a couple more personal wins for his bargaining power. He just wants to be on a winner. Decent chance with him signing after the season. Lopez is under control next year…..if he’s doing OK, a mid-season extension for a couple more years at $21M per year would be good guaranteed money for a guy that’s had shoulder problems. Ryan is coming off his Rookie Year…..wouldn’t consider extending until ‘24 & then Team Friendly if guaranteeing him $$ 2 years early.
  8. JD-TWINS
    Live in Cincinnati & have seen Gray & Mahle a fair amount……regarding extensions, my comment would be, Gray gets guys out and Mahle looks good on the mound & on baseball card. Mahle has decent stuff & is 4-5 years younger than a relatively fragile Gray. However, the guy we really will want to extend is López……so Gray is most affordable & best value of the others at 2 years for $38M. Would really focus on López first!! If successful this year, any of the 3 are worth pursuing with differing expectations going forward. 36 in ‘24….Maeda - 130 inning guy at $13M 2yr 34 in ‘24….Gray - 155 inning guy at $19M 2yr 29 in ‘24….Mahle - 175 inning guy at $17M 3yr …………….. she ??, maybe 27 in ‘24….López 185 innings at $21M…….have next year already & extend 2 more years. Would be really good to have 2 of these 4 extended by July of ‘23!
  9. JD-TWINS
    Ober is too good to not have pitch regularly. He’s also too fragile to burn up healthy innings in St. Paul! Have been a proponent in these forums since November hoping Maeda would be the long guy in Pen with Ober as our 5th starter. When Ober goes down or tires in July or sooner……Maeda could stretch out in 3-4 weeks & should still be down at 60-70 innings pitched, Max. at that point. We could do 6 starters and have guys go deeper knowing they have an extra 1-2 days between starts. I prefer a 5th day piggyback where Maeda & Ober split games…….this would really keep an 8 man Pen fresh for the other 4 days! Starter goes 4-5 innings and 2nd guy finishes game. May need an out or two from Pen in the transition/middle innings - may need a one inning closer? However it works, generally it’s a break for the Pen. Also, it keeps our two most fragile starter’s innings down through the year!! (18-25 innings a month)
  10. JD-TWINS
    Kiriloff isn’t going to be ready in 15 days. Who’s the roster replacement? Larnach &/or Garlick depending upon amount of power shown over next 2 weeks. Gordon - Buxton - Kepler - Garlick/Larnach - Taylor Gallo at 1B - Farmer - Miranda - CC - Polanco - Solano Jeffers - Vázquez ……………. Polanco & Buxton seem to be just being conservative!
  11. JD-TWINS
    Sounds good! Need some LH power & either Larnach or Walner need to bring it….. I just saw Julien had a 1-2 day for Canada Sunday…….HR……….4 BB. Still don’t see him playing up this year unless Kiriloff is washed. Even then either he or Polanco needs to learn 1B on the fly. Don’t see it……he’s a tough fit with Lee & Lewis & Miranda all ahead of him as well as Farmer & Polanco & Solano.
  12. JD-TWINS
    I do know Julien isn’t getting called up at some point to give Polanco & Kiriloff rest…..not real since the number of roster spots is not elastic for us “to look at guys”. Raya coming up in August seems to be a real stretch! We signed four veterans & kept two other veterans coming off sub-par years. Gallo - Solano - Farmer - Taylor…….Polanco - Kepler not because we expected a handful of guys from the farm to displace them in July………we have veteran depth and that’s how we’re built to win this year. Platoon bats - defense - pitching! You don’t play 75 - 90 games & scrap everything because you’re curious how the young guys might do.
  13. JD-TWINS
    Over, over, over….. 88 wins minimum Lopez - 13 wins…….Ryan - 15 wins (starting against lesser competition) Whether CC hits .272 or .289 doesn’t matter, those totals are maybe a 5 hit difference over the summer. If Buxton gets 110 games in the batters box he’ll get 30 HR’s. Need to get him 50 games at DH, & hopefully 80 in CF.
  14. JD-TWINS
    He extends his fight leg and isn’t in optimal position to block balls nor to get to his feet & throw. Others in the game have the same approach. His time up & throwing & accuracy of the throw drive his (a catcher’s) ability to throw out runners. There’s no improving this stolen base stat by getting a relationship with the 2B or SS. The catcher throws to the 1B side of the bag as quickly as possible & whoever is supposed to be there needs to be there. Catchers platooning is & has been part of most team’s approach for decades. Nothing new here.
  15. JD-TWINS
    Agreed! I’m sure many of us felt like Martin was a real stretch for any roster time this year since he didn’t fair well in AA last year. I get the fall ball push but he was going back to AA this Spring to try & reach some higher level of consistency. I’m not so sure that if he doesn’t hurt his elbow & had been playing this spring that Julien is ahead of him at all at this point. Julien hit 2HRs in one game……one game. He’s borderline AA/AAA to start the year. Nice upside but green! Lee/Lewis have always been ahead of Martin so not sure how the injury plays into that at all……..your point, his injury’s impact on ‘23 roster is overblown. Good luck to him - hoping no surgery!
  16. JD-TWINS
    Great excitement to see prospects come to fruition & make The Show! The problem I see with it happening this year is it means we have underperforming or injured veterans. That said, I am in no hurry. Julien - Kiriloff - Miranda all potentially at 1B going forward. Larnach - Walner - Gordon - Martin - Rodriguez all corner outfielders going forward. Lee/Lewis gotta have 2B & 3B covered going forward. Buxton - Correa - Vázquez - Jeffers are all locks going forward in ‘24……….can we get 9 other guys out of the 10 guys shown without having any depth problems? Too much position duplication? Wasting talent/value on the bench? …………… Gallo - Kepler - Polanco - Taylor - Farmer are all gone in ‘24 with the scenario above. Can we feel comfortable with so many guys in first or second year in ‘24? What if we have health this year & win 95 games? Do we automatically jettison all the vets because we are anxious? Lots of variables on who performs in ‘23 - I get that. Farmer may be under contract for ‘24? I’m excited to see what we can do, how many wins we can put together with this deeper veteran club…….the young guys can help if needed but I’m hoping for success with the 26 man roster we start with!
  17. JD-TWINS
    Needed Alcala or Megill to step forward this spring. After 2 weeks Alcala looks stable and better. His stuff is better than Jax - just a matter of having the health & mental toughness. If right, he’s an 8th inning shutdown type of guy. Jax - Moran - Alcala - Thielbar - Duran ……..these guys can get us through 7th, 8th, & 9th for W’s! Dobnack or Winder or Sands as Long guy. Other 2 guys???? Nobody’s got a perfect Pen. Hoping for Pagan & López to be usable…..if they start slow, we need to shift guys from AAA in a hurry. SWR potentially in relief - potentially Balazovic in relief as well.
  18. JD-TWINS
    Duped! His career ERA is over 6-7 years of service & is over 5.00. That’s a pretty good view of who he is. Why would Baltimore trade a guy with his pitch mix & velocity that was headed to an All-Star game with 2 additional years of control? I’ve typed this here before, I think his problem is between his ears. I think Baltimore realized that……the Twins beat him up twice in July before trading for him. How do you get ahead 1-2 76% of the time and have a high walk rate & low strikeout rate??? No guts/aggression! He was great through June & started a slide in July. Baltimore noticed - & they are cheap, so they sold high! He seems to lose command/location & gets pounded after being ahead in counts…….very similar to Pagan. Obviously, hoping for the best for these 2 guys but I don’t know if they will ever have the make-up to make big pitches in key situations. I’d take 3.85 ERA’s if they only pitch if it’s 5th, 6th, or 7th innings ……..or we’re behind. At least they’d be eating innings.
  19. JD-TWINS
    I don’t understand signing him for anything more than he may take & if you’ve had arm issues more than once it is crazy not to take an upgraded, guaranteed deal. I’m not cheap but giving a guy long term security buys down the price of his arbitration years……as with Clase……club options for $10.5 million a year once a free agent is the club’s benefit for giving him an early deal. I wait until mid year to keep this year’s cost static. I think this means 4 years (24 - ‘27) plus 2 years total. …….if he’s healthy, sign him mid-year this year. $4.0 for 2 years …….$5.0 for 2 years …….. a 5th year at $10.0, also guaranteed! Club option at $11 for another year after year 5. Year 5 is a good guarantee for Duran at this point in his career - Year 6 is a good deal for Twins in 2029 $$.
  20. JD-TWINS
    Can’t imagine him playing 2B …….we have Lee/Lewis/Martin……….team options on Polanco through ‘25. If Jorge can’t stay healthy or if his power is gone I could see them letting him go. However, if the guy is a Top 10 - 2B in the game with offense/defense combined, I’m not in a hurry to move a $10 million contract ………switch hitting veteran with 25 HR power! Still, we try to find a spot for Julien! Larnach - Walner - Rodriquez - Julien - Martin - Lewis - Lee - Kiriloff - Miranda - Gordon …….sorry to say, we can’t play all these guys because they aren’t all going to pan out due to health or ability to hit. If they do all hit we have 4 possible 3B…….6 possible OF……..4 possible 2B……4 possible 1B……good problems!! Buxton - CC - Vázquez - Jeffers are all on the roster for 3 years minimum, that leaves 9 other spots in ‘24 & ‘25. If they all become good to better MLB hitters then we have the best Farm System ever! Ever!! I think they should all have success in their careers but that’s not very realistic. Let’s see Julien & Lee have some success at AAA before worrying about where they’ll have a spot on big club. Lewis still has to get healthy. 1 or 2 steps at a time!
  21. JD-TWINS
    They all look like Don Matingly, Tony Oliva, Carl Yastrzemski, Norm Cash, Fred Lynn, Justin Morneau, David Ortiz, Kent Hrbek, George Brett & Joe Mauer in the batter’s box.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Seems like a cheap depth move. No conspiracy theory that everyone else is going to be out for extended period. Good athlete that can play all 3 OF positions if we are really desperate at some point. Good organizational move.
  23. JD-TWINS
    Completely agree! Appears he got in really good shape - bummer he can’t throw. Last year, even if we wanted to try and play Miranda at 3B, with a good chunk of the roster hurt, we needed to plug him at 1B or DH just to start 9 guys. Urshella was solid at 3B both offensively & defensively. Farmer costs 1/2 of Urshella & is a former everyday SS & comfortable at 2B & 3B. Good exchange in the pursuit of positional depth! Miranda’s arm is potentially just a Spring Training strain but he needs to heal soon. If Kirilof is healthy & if Miranda can’t throw effectively, the new 3B options will push him to DH & 1B platoons. If Lee/Lewis take over 3B in ‘24, Miranda has a slim future as a RH bat in our line-up. On paper, Larnach - Kirilof - Gordon - Walner - Julien all play ahead of him (as well as Buxton 30-40 games) at DH v. RH pitching (75% of games). Seems like there should always be room for a good bat on the roster - thought that about Luis A. as well.
  24. JD-TWINS
    Seems Gallo would be short-term LH bat solution at 1B if Kirilof isn’t ready April 1. No question. LH bat solution if Kirilof is washed for months, would be to get Gordon up to speed. Fielding balls isn’t an issue - footwork around the base would take a month or more while Gallo holds down the position for 6-8 weeks against RH pitching. At some point is leaving Gallo at 1B OK & Gordon in LF OK…….less risky? Obviously, hope Kirilof is up with Big Club very soon!
  25. JD-TWINS
    I get the “maybes” & “what ifs” for conversation sake. However, if Nick Gordon can’t get over an ankle sprain in another 10 days, he has a more serious injury. Is Miranda throwing at all? He is my concern……everyone has braced for Kirilof not being able to play again this year but Miranda was penciled in for 100 games at 3B - 35 games between DH & 1B……I get he can DH or even play 1B for a month but he can’t force LH bats out of the line-up v. RH pitching at either of these spots! Picked up Solano to play 1B & DH v. LH pitching.
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