JD-TWINS

CANNOT start Taylor v. RH pitching………(not unless guys are hurt!) Against RH pitching - 80% of the games, order of depth: Gordon/Gallo/Larnach - Buxton/Gordon/Taylor - Kepler/Gallo/Taylor I see Buxton starting 80 games in CF if he can hold it together……..50 games at DH. When Buxton is resting or DH v. RH pitching, Gordon plays CF - 50 games………vs. LH pitching Taylor is in CF - 30 games. I look forward to Gallo - Gordon - Kepler in the OF & at the plate v. RH pitching. Larnach - Taylor - Kepler v. LH pitching with Buxton at DH.

Gallo would be the first choice at 1B in ‘23 if Kirilof can’t play (v. RH pitching) ……..Larnach may get some reps through the year. We have plenty of OF depth to allow Gallo to man first base.

“……in case the Catcher gets injured…” …that’s what my comment about having a catcher sitting with the Manager, just in case…….means. I don’t see us, in any one game, starting Vazquez & Jeffers together because nobody in the organization, especially Farmer, wants to see Farmer catching. It’s Russian Roulette with our needed Utility guy. Maybe, a possibility in the 8th or 9th as a pinch hitter to win the game we could see them expose this type of situation with Jeffers or Vazquez? Bad outfield is defensible????? Six guys penciled on roster now. 3 former Gold Gloves - plus the guy most people thought would win Gold Glove in RF last year if he didn’t finish the year hurt. Gordon is a guy you defend against this group of 4. Other guy is Larnach - many Twins followers think he’s a #3 hitter if healthy. ……………… Balance of my defense: Gallo is hit & miss offensively & even with a GG difficult to defend/be too excited about, granted………potential 32 HR power Taylor is a GG platoon against lefties and a late inning pinch runner - pinch hitter against lefties - defensive replacement if needed. Buxton doesn’t hold up health wise but he contributes when he plays - Gordon & Taylor letting him sit half the games should help his availability. Kepler will hit 10 HR - 25 doubles & play exceptionally well in RF & will hopefully get his BA to .255 plus & thus RBI up. He may not start enough to get 25 doubles but if he gets 125 starts these numbers are gettable. Can’t imagine there’s 5 other groups in the game that can compare in depth - power - defense. We’re 6 deep defensively with 2 potential mashers & 3 other potential doubles machines.

Offense is needed on all MLB clubs. We’re gonna role with a switch hitting, powerful former starting SS at 2B. At SS one of the year’s most coveted Free Agents. At 1B a potential offensive All-Star. As our Utility back-up and star against LH pitching, another former starting SS in the SHOW. At 3B a probable .270 - 22HR - 80 RBI guy. SOLID catcher with a .274 career BA. Going to have to live with the defensive infield that can provide RUNS!!! Not many perfect clubs out there……..

Appreciate the depth comments & the detailing of each guy’s contribution capabilities. My opinion, I still think Gordon & Larnach combine for 170 starts in the OF for offensive punch in the line-up. That’s Buxton 80 - Taylor 40 - Kepler 110 - Gallo 80 ……Buxton DH 50 games & Gallo at 1B 20 games & 20 games at DH. We have 6 OF in the 26 man mix with a healthy Kirilof being another option. There’s been mention of Farmer in a corner OF spot at some point as well. All good - but please quit discussing Gilberto Celestino like he’s got a probable or even a potential spot in our outfield in ‘23!!

Good information! Encouraging. Kirk Gibson, having been a cross-over football player, probably had some more thickness/strength in his forearms & wrists than Kirilof. Still an encouraging comparison. In my mind our first base production has been an afterthought but somebody that can hit will end up there. If we can get 30 starts there v. LH pitching from Miranda, 20 random starts from Gallo, to sharpen him there for an “if needed” situation in the fall, and 110 starts from a productive Kirilof - we’re laughing!! I realize we are not playing all the Central Division teams as much as in the past and the line-up vs. opponents in general is what matters. However, I saw a Central Division All-Star Team by position last week - we had 4 starters of 8 spots from the everyday line-up’s. CF - RF - SS - C ………the guy from Cleveland was starting at 1B - weak choice but nobody else to choose. Kirilof could make a spot for himself there with an average season for him of .280/.325/.420. Our depth is unquestionably the best in the Division! Cleveland’s 2B - 3B - LF are all very good! If we have 5 of the best 8 players by position & the deepest bench in our Division so we should be OK in the W-L area.

Absolutely!

Maybe, it’s a stretch though to not have a catcher sitting with the Manager, just in case, the whole game. A team doesn’t strengthen its D by signing Farmer - Taylor - Gallo to solidify Defense & then play Farmer at Catcher because he’s caught a handful of times in the SHOW.

.272 in 405 AB’s…..28 doubles in ‘22. Overlooked is that he gained 25 lb in ‘22 & was healthy for first time in pro career. First year ever playing OF. With guys we have coming up, he’s done in the infield for good! Maybe, if Kirilof washes out, he may get a shot at 1B in ‘24? If he gets 550 AB’s between 80 games in LF & 50 games in CF……….essentially all games v. RH pitching his numbers project to: 12 HR……..38 doubles……. ..270 BA ……..70 RBI -to me, if Kirilof was projected to have those numbers, he’d be in the line-up every day. Gordon has to get an opportunity in the OF regularly - not unlike ‘22.

Vs. LH pitching: Larnach in LF best LH splits - Taylor in CF - Gallo in RF (pretty sure he’s more neutral against LH than Kepler - not sure? One or the other playing right & batting 9th) Taylor CF - Buxton DH - Correa SS - Miranda 1B - Farmer 3B - Polanco 2B - Jeffers C - Larnach LF - Gallo RF (Taylor - Farmer - Jeffers all need to play v. LH pitching every time) BENCH: Gordon, Kepler, Vazquez, Kirilof

Polanco at 1B in’24 may be worth a look if Kirilof is washed. In ‘23 I think that Gallo is the innings eater at 1B if Kirilof can’t go……obviously, Miranda is at first base if there’s a LH pitcher. Nick Gordon should be in LF or in CF for RH starters……..along with Gallo & Kepler. LH starters & Taylor plays CF ……Larnach in LF & Kepler in RF Buxton v. RH pitchers sits 30 games………DH v. LH pitchers 30 games & DH 20 games vs RH starters……..CF other 80 games

Agreed!! Gordon in LF 80 games - CF 50 games. Larnach in LF 50 games - DH 80 games Buxton in CF 80 games - DH 50 games Kepler in RF 110 games Gallo in RF - 50 games - LF 30 games - 1B 20 games - Gallo DH 20 games Farmer at 3B to rest Miranda 25 games…..at 3B against LH pitching, another 30 games while Miranda starts at 1B - 2B to rest Polanco for 25 games - SS to rest Correa. That’s 105 starts without any injuries. Miranda at 3B 100 games - at 1B 30 games Farmer v. LH pitching is very solid! Gordon v. RH pitching is also solid! As stated above, Gordon is now an outfielder & Farmer an infielder.

The Bomba Squad deserves respect! Every other team was hitting a juiced baseball in ‘19. Vs historical teams, because of the enhanced ball, they are somewhat over rated. Fun to watch with what I recall was a roster of 7-8 guys with 20 HR…….4 guys with 30 HR. Don’t think 1 year signings are detrimental. You use them to plug holes as needed. Twins are good shape this year with depth! However, if Gallo plays to his top end, & we want to, we can sign him for another year………….short term may cost up to $16 million but the year to year is worthwhile in this case. Signing Gray to a one year extension with some mutual options for ‘25 isn’t a bad thought. Same with Maeda! Again, shorter term deals may cost more per year but we aren’t signing anchors if we sign guys a year at a time.

Ted - agreed on the depth angle! Read comments from a bunch of detractors & everyone can have their own opinion. However, worrying about health (as if it only means something in Minnesota) like it’s almost a certain negative is old. Obviously, every sports team from 3rd grade Y ball, to NHL, to Vikings, etc. worry about their key players staying healthy. Your point, well made, is that we are more prepared from Buxton/Correa - Gray/Maeda to handle injuries with depth all the way through the St Paul roster. So we have better depth & should expect at least slightly better fortune than in ‘22. With that said, can we get off the Manager’s back before Spring Training even starts? “The FO has to go……..” is another old attitude. There are no perfect rosters - there are no perfectly executed plans - there’s gathering guys together and hoping/expecting them to play toward the higher level of their capabilities. You can’t screw that up by taking a pitcher out after 5 1/3 …….,,the players get hits - they score runs. - they get outs. Management puts a group of decent players out there and the players need to stay healthy & perform!

The results and resilience to date are encouraging! Law from The Athletic (neutral Point of View) describes him as a probable “reliever stuff” guy. Stuff is stuff & it’s possible his good results to date are due to not seeing same guys a lot and his unique delivery. At MLB level, usually good stuff wins out & unique mechanics may work in short spots? We’ll find out with a probable first 3 months in St Paul - hoping for continued success! He could be our long reliever in 2nd half of ‘23?

In ‘22 it seems to me Ryan was typically facing the opponents #1. Maybe this changed up over the year due to various details? Regardless of how he pitched against differing levels of talent, he won 13 games in his Rookie Year! If he settles in at #3 starter going forward, that’s great. His ERA in ‘22 suggests he’s a #3, at a minimum, going forward. ’24 starting rotation: Lopez - Ober - Ryan - Paddack - Varland…….at least 5 guys with potential!

Keith Law of The Athletic just rated our Top 20 prospects & has him (Varland) rated as a probable reliever since he does not have a “plus” pitch in his 4 pitch repertoire. Coming from small college Minnesota baseball & to have improved every year significantly is something to get behind. I have no problem with a “consistent #4-#5 stuff guy” that can stay healthy and throw 150-180 innings yearly & sticking with him for years. Pretty sure you can win just as many games started by your #5 guy as you can by your #1 guy?!?!! If Mr. Law is right though - or if Varland proves him right by digressing through 3-4 months in ‘23 - we should see the if his stuff plays better from the Pen. BTW, Law projects SWR as a bullpen arm as well. Maybe, ………maybe, we should assume Sands is a reliever - Winder is a reliever - & one of SWR or Varland is a reliever and potentially free us of Pagán - J. Lopez - etc………our starters of the future will come together……let’s have a STRONG & HEALTHY Pen! Look at how the Rangers built their starting staff for this year…….It can be done in a hurry! At the end of ‘23 we’ll still have López - Paddack - Ryan - Ober as a base, worst case. Varland - SWR - Megill - Jax - Duran - Maeda - Moran - Thielbar - Winder how do these 9 arms look in the Pen going into the ‘23 playoffs?…….hopefully, we sign Chafin or Moore when we have room on 40 man!! Playoff starters would be Best FOUR Results from season out of : Ober - Ryan - Gray - López - Mahle

Gallo v. Sano ……this comparison, along with your redundancy comments about our LH batting OF, surely suggests we could get along just fine without either one of these two guys!!! Just because Sano’s offensive numbers are. better than Gallo’s doesn’t mean that we should sign Miguel.

Great comparative numbers! ……,,,,apparently Joey is going to make 3-4 game winning catches this year to prove his worth. This, along wi

16-13 is my guess ……….splitting hairs in April. Gonna need a couple good streaks to make the playoffs and these seldom happen in April. No reason to look at schedule for April and feel bad about things. It’s the first 18% of the year’s schedule. Our pitching depth 1-5 will pay off but it may take until July to show up as an advantage……….15 wins/month gets us to a 90 win season. Playoff worthy?

Maybe Kirilof in the mix in ‘24 with DH & 1B capabilities?

Polanco played SS in the SHOW for years…..his arm should be sufficient, relative to the rest of the league, at 2B! Correa is solid with arm strength. Miranda is on a conditioning kick to be in better shape - we’ll see how it works out. Good news is Farmer will play 3B v. lefties (Miranda @ 1B) plus he will provide rest additionally for all 3 IF guys (25 games each) & he’s a former everyday SS so his nearly 100 starts should meet arm criteria as well.

Seems a little premature on the path to the majors in ‘24……he’s only been to High A & there’s not a clear position. Seems he’ll need another 2 years to be ready - right? He’ll turn 22 in April of ‘25……seems logical first year for his physical & skill set maturity.

He doesn’t get to pitch against Detroit & KC as often as last year……..good success against them! Although, he will be, the whole staff will be, facing teams that haven’t seen him……should be advantage pitcher! Advantage particularly since most of the National League teams will only see him once the entire year. Again, if you average his innings per start at 5.7 and give him 28 starts……..the bar is an average of 1.64 runs per 5.7 inning start. Those are lofty expectations! Hope he puts up a bunch of Zeros!

J. Lopez only real career success is April - June of ‘22. He spent 4-5 years prior as a struggling starter………started to decline in Baltimore in July’22……even at the hands of the Twins. Came over after having been an All-Star and wasn’t very good at all. He can’t be our answer for success! Duran was used situationally last year because we had guys prior to the 9th messing up leads (Pagán - Smith - López - Duffey) so Baldelli was trying to piece something together. Also, not a very traditional move to make a Rookie, that hadn’t been a reliever, and making him your closer!