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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    93MPH is fine if you can PITCH! Moving the ball - throwing strikes - getting guys out. Varland is a 4th-5th MLB starter now for a whole bunch of teams. If he can eat innings and stays healthy, he’s on the staff for good starting in ‘24. 2024 Pitching Staff - Starters: Lopez - Mahle (assuming health) - Ryan - Varland - Paddock ………maybe Maeda as a long reliever in ‘24………..another prospect that has a nice year in ‘23 may displace Mahle or Maeda depending upon our ability to sign either of them. 9th prospect is in the mix!
  2. JD-TWINS
    Miranda getting in better shape and slimming 10 lbs or whatever is a lot different than a 1200 calorie starvation diet that will “sap all batting skills/power”. Miranda played 2000 innings at 3B in minors……that was his target position. We shed salary moving Urshella ($10M) & we made room for an organizational potential star at 1B (Kirilof) by focusing Miranda at 3B. If Kiriloff can’t play, Miranda has a new home in ‘24 at 1B. The salary shed allowed a trade for Farmer ($5M) - a much more skilled option as a SS bridge to Lewis & gang. We signed CC and now things may seem odd but losing Gio (even though I loved his consistency & clutch hitting) makes sense as we evolve our younger guys. Miranda was a star in ‘21 in minors & was in the mix for ROY in ‘22 after only 4 months. He’s gonna be OK!!
  3. JD-TWINS
    If Kirilof goes down, it seems obvious that Gallo takes over at 1B and when lefties start against us Miranda plays 1B. No Gurriel nor anyone else brought in with mediocre potential at this point in their career. Our outfield is fine if Gallo were gone tomorrow. LF Gordon/Larnach/:Gallo CF Buxton/Gordon/Taylor RF Kepler/Gallo/Larnach ……………… FIRST BASE Kirilof/Gallo/Miranda If Kirilof goes down & Gallo or Kepler are a liability into June, I would expect Walner or soon after, Lewis, to be in play! Lewis/Farmer to 3B & Miranda to 1B.
  4. JD-TWINS
    I will be interested to see how CF shakes out! Many, as you do, state that the FO & organization intend on Michael Taylor to play CF 60-100 games. I don’t see this happening - have a different slant. Taylor’s offense is not there v. right handed pitching. Similar comment could be made about Nick Gordon v. left handed pitching. It’s my opinion that Buxton will have a goal of 80 starts in CF……50 starts at DH. I see Taylor playing CF every time a Lefty starts against us……..30 games. His other AB’s come from pinch hit opportunities & maybe 5 starts in CF v. righties. He’s INSURANCE in case of long stretch injury. He’ll be late inning pinch runner - late inning defense as needed. If we face 130 Righty starters, Buxton starts v. 80 of them in CF……this leaves 45 plus starts for Gordon in CF & his much superior offense v. Taylor. Larnach starts in LF those 45 games. He DH’s another 70 games v. RH pitching. Gordon starts 80 games in LF v. RH starters. Kepler starts 110 games in RF. Gallo plays 50 games in RF - 35 games in LF - 30 games at 1B - 10 games at DH. Everyone plays 110 -135 games and is fresh in September/October!! Here’s to good health!!!
  5. JD-TWINS
    Seems the Author’s goals for Ryan seem to be most lofty - difficult to attain. I responded previously with an innings expectation of 160 innings 5.7 innings X 28 starts……assuming they skip 2-3 starts somehow if he’s got perfect health. The ERA of under 3.00 is what I don’t understand as a goal? He’d have to seldom - almost never - give up more than 2 runs per start. To me, unrealistic. He was our #1 last year as a Rookie and slotted there due to lack of other choices. All year, baseball people called him an actual #3-#4 starter. No reason to set such high expectations. My math is 46 earned runs for the regular season……..160 innings pitched (160/46 = 3.48ERA)…………46 earned runs/28 starts = 1.64 Earned Runs per start. That’s a plenty high expectation for a 2nd year guy.
  6. JD-TWINS
    League Average OPS……what is that typically? My parallel Goals: Gordon plays 80 games in LF & 50 games in CF against RH pitching and his OPS is .750 plus & he bats .270 & has 12HR with 38 doubles! Walks once more per week and strikes out once less per week. Buxton plays 80 games in CF & DH 50 games……….30HR & cuts back on K’s by 20% - stay healthy for playoffs! Try to hit .245 plus (career average) Miranda hits .275 & has 85 RBI……OPS of .775 plus……play Top 20 defense at 3B, that’s fine in year 1!! Polanco - stay healthy and get in 135 starts. 22HR with a .270 BA…..back to normal! Kepler 110 starts in RF - post shift lift BA off .260 and maintain walk %. Gallo - ditto on Harrison’s goals ….same with Kirilof. Vazquez needs to be different at Catcher than what we’ve been seeing and hopefully hit his career BA of .274 with 50-60 RBI. Jeffers needs to mash the 30 odd lefties he’ll start against and play solid defense in his 55 starts. Correa doesn’t need to win awards - just be what we expect……20HR ……..BA of .275 ……stay in line-up 140 games. Drive in more runs when opportunity presents this year.
  7. JD-TWINS
    Lefty Starter: Taylor CF Buxton DH Correa SS Miranda 1B Farmer 3B Jeffers C Larnach LF Polanco 2B Gallo RF
  8. JD-TWINS
    His 2022 was down in performance & he was hurt for a big stretch. So he’s a .270 career BA & 20 plus HR guy. He hits from both sides and has previously been an average or better defender. He’s declined on D and now that the Shift is behind us we’ll see where he’s at now. If he hits .270 in the middle of our line up, which he seems to be capable of if healthy, and hits his 20 HR, it’s a success!! If he plays “OK” defense, and hits, I can’t see us worrying about his potential $10 million in 2024. Need that veteran presence with Vazquez - Correa - Buxton up the middle. I think either Gordon or Duran would be the most underrated coming off 2022. Duran was at the Top of the League for relievers in ‘22! Not much more to say about his performance……..how he’s perceived by outside Twins nation, he’s way underrated! Easy to take him for granted if one is a local fan as well! Gordon played wherever needed - with nearly everyone around him getting hurt for big stretches he played 4 different positions. 65 games in LF and 33 games in CF in his first year ever playing OF. Got a handful of games at SS and a couple dozen at 2B……..I think he has now cemented himself in the OF. He gained 25 lbs in 2022 and is healthy (intestinal issue) for the first time as a professional. 113 OPS+ ……. .272BA………28 doubles in 405 AB’s. I think with playing time he gets 40 doubles in 550 AB’s. Best answer in CF v. RH pitching when Buxton is DH or resting.
  9. JD-TWINS
    Agreed mostly. I think Taylor pinch hits late against lefties - pinch runs - goes in for late defense if we’re ahead - starts in CF for every game there’s a left handed starter going. I don’t see him playing any corner OF as you state, unless late for Gordon or Larnach. That’s it for him though - he’s insurance & buffer between MLB OF and the guys you mentioned above that we saw late last year. I do not see him playing against right handed starters more than a handful of times. Gordon hits too well to not sandwich him between Kepler & Gallo…….as long as we have them both. Gallo for some erratic power and good outfield play. The 1B option is, as you say, gravy. I do think Gallo - Kepler both until the trade deadline and then Lewis is back & we move one of the lefty corner bats.
  10. JD-TWINS
    With the Buxton - Larnach - Kirilof injury histories, like it or not, it makes sense to hang on to Kepler & see if he or Gallo has more value to our club up to the deadline. Also, Kepler ensure’s that we don’t need to go any deeper than Walner at AAA if there are injuries. Buxton played 140 games in 2017 and in other 6 years (other than Covid ‘20) he’s played an average of 68 games per year. Need depth! 2022 stats: Buxton Gordon Kepler Games 92 136 115 AB’s 340 405 388 Hits 76 128 88 BA .224 .272 .227 HR 28 9 9 Doubles 13 28 18 RBI 51 50 43 OPS .833 .743 .666 OPS+ 135 113 93 SO 116 105 66 BB. 34. 19 49 OBP. .306. .316. .318 Gordon had 1st healthy season since signing - first year playing OF - gained 25 lb in 2022. His 2nd year in SHOW vs. the other 2 guy’s 8th season. If he K’s once less per week & walks once more per week he’s a solid MLB outfielder that hits 40 doubles & 14 HR per year………….did this comparison to show Gordon should play vs. RH pitching nearly 100% of the time in LF or CF. If Gallo needs AB’s he needs to start maybe 50 games in LF but the other 30 games each should come from Kepler in RF & Kirilof at 1B. Gordon could get OBP up to .335 and SO/BB ratio down to 2:1 this year, or even approach that, & he’s our LF …….Buxton’s primary back-up in CF, for years!! Basically, Gordon is performing offensively like we all hoped that Kepler would.
  11. JD-TWINS
    Liked Urshella but $10 million v. Miranda at $700K is a wash in the box score. Seems that most of the contributors missed the Kyle Farmer trade. He was the starting SS for the Reds - he hit 15 - 20 points less than Urshella in ‘22. He’s the back-up in ‘23 at 3B - SS - 2B for Twins & will start at 3B v. LH pitching as Miranda will then go to 1st………that’s 100 starts if everybody stays healthy. Farmer’s at approximately 1/2 of Urshella’s salary. Connecting Kepler & Gallo situation with Urshella doesn’t make any sense to me. With Farmer, originally, we got a bridge guy to get us to Lewis - Lee - Martin. With the CC signing we now have a polished utility IF. Twins wanted room for Kirilof at 1st and needed Miranda at 3rd to make that happen. Miranda was offensive star in ‘21 in minors and in discussion for Rookie of Year playing only 4 months in ‘22.
  12. JD-TWINS
    Going with what I see as Reality roster for everyday guys out of Spring Training V. LH starter: Taylor CF - Buxton DH - Correa SS - Miranda 1B - Polanco 2B - Farmer 3B - Gordon LF - Jeffers C - Kepler RF 30 games or so v. Lefthander. V. RH starter: Gordon CF - Kirilof 1B - Correa SS - Larnach DH - Polanco 2B - Gallo LF - Vazquez C - Kepler RF - Miranda 3B Buxton plays v RH maybe 80 games as CF & another 20 as DH. Gordon plays 50 games in CF…….Taylor has all the CF starts against LH starters. CC batting 3rd & Polanco batting 5th day in day out for stability. Lewis in the mix at end of July with Gallo or Kepler possibly being moved, based on results after 100 games.
  13. JD-TWINS
    Keep Everyday roster static & sign Chafin or Fulmer. This, to me, is very realistic & should happen w/o an issue. Reynolds isn’t that special IMO & he displaces Larnach & Gordon in LF going forward & they both provide plenty of offense V. righties. Gordon - 28 doubles & 9 HR in ‘22 (1st full season) with 405 AB’s & .750 OPS…….if he walks once more a week & strikes out once less a week, he’s a star in the making!! V. LH starter: Taylor CF - Buxton DH - Correa SS - Miranda 1B - Polanco 2B - Farmer 3B - Gordon LF - Jeffers C - Kepler RF I think this line-up with 3 platoon guys with solid splits against LH pitching looks good! V. RH starter: Gordon CF - Polanco 2B - Correa SS - Larnach DH - Kirilof 1B - Vazquez C - Kepler RF - Miranda 3B - Gallo LF I think this line-up will have Buxton in Center 60% of the time but looking at it here with 3 left handed hitting Outfielders. Shows we can get Larnach & Kirilof in the line-up & still have 3 other LH guys in OF, plus Polanco. Keeping Larnach for 50% of DH at bats vs. RH pitching & maybe 40 games in LF. Keeping Kepler because Gallo may be our Opening Day first baseman??? Kiriloff & Buxton are health wildcards. I’ve seen enough of Celestino in our MLB outfield - need the depth. If we choose, based on how things are going, we trade Gallo or Kepler with pieces at the break to fill a hole in the Staff & to get Lewis on the roster.
  14. JD-TWINS
    All 5 guys gotta pitch every week so having a maybe #2 & last year’s #1 (Ryan) going as a #4 this year works. We have equally or better guys from #2 - #5 v. most staffs & 3 or 4 more #5’s in St Paul if needed.
  15. JD-TWINS
    Sands has no real benefit as a starter - give him a shot at getting 3 outs at a time. Gotta keep Ober & Winder stretched out & ready at least through May. By then we’ll have a feel for the front five guys health & effectiveness. Maybe can target Winder as a long guy with big club and keep SWR & Varland working as starters in St Paul & ready for SHOW when needed. Balazovic is a guy that struggled last year with good stuff…….he could jump past Jax & be the next Duran. I think we give him until 4th of July to get right as a starter or start grooming him - trying him as a power reliever!
  16. JD-TWINS
    Seems our quantity of arms sets us apart in a battle of attrition. Our competitors may not have health issues & then everything is leveled. I have seen Mahle throw for 3 plus years in Cinti. & he has good enough stuff to give any line-up trouble a couple times through…..then he starts to drift. Still a positive arm. Also, seems there’s enough knowledge of P. Lopez to expect good things. Ryan & Gray were our two stable guys last year….,,,hoping for more of the same without too much drift. Too many variables in the air to predict anything after our first 4 guys. We have many options is a fair statement & eventually we should find a couple competent replacements if needed. Our top 4 guys have all achieved double digit Wins in a season & done so recently. To have that level of achievement with all top 4 starters & with that capability being very realistic in the next 3-4 options, we’re in good shape. We don’t have Bundy nor Archer types this year - guys will be going after hitters & not just hoping to get through 4 innings w/o blowing up. I like our entire staff (would like experienced FA added in Pen) and we are deep enough with starters & Pen arms to ultimately land on solid guys performing consistently. 5 guys starting with 5-6 other options in St. Paul 8 guys in Pen with 4-5 other options in St. Paul We need 13 performers out of 22 or so guys. I like the depth & our chances.
  17. JD-TWINS
    Mahle’s biggest problem is his approach & it creates his other problems. I live in Cincinnati & watching him drive me nuts! He gets ahead routinely has just above average stuff - and then nibbles his way into 4&5 walks per 6 inning start. He walks guys gets into jams & then his pitch count is at 88 at the end of 4 innings. Seldom gets through the 6th unscathed! His goals should be 160 innings & ERA under 3.80 …….could be lower but he needs to start pitching to contact more to gets his walks down & innings up. 13 wins! Ryan’s goals (under 3.00 ERA??) should align with his middle of staff stuff……..160 innings & 3.50 or under ERA. 15 wins! That’s a good year. Sonny Gray goals should be 150 innings & sub 3.40 ERA. 13 Wins! Duran & Jax, more of the same from ‘22….. Maeda had his arm rebuilt - should actually be stronger now. Hoping for a goal of 125 innings from the Pen early & then 5th starter. ERA of 3.75 or better. Would really like to see him dominate from the Pen all year throwing twice a week but sounds like his contract screws him if he relents to the Pen. Seems FO could solve for betterment of Team! Ober - under 4.00 ERA & 125 innings would work. Lopez - 3.75 ERA & 175 innings with 12 Wins! Good year no matter where he’s slotted in rotation. 900 plus innings from 6 starters…….probably will get Varland & SWR to pick up another 80 innings……that’s a thousand innings out of probable 1460. Good starter to Pen ratio. Lopez - Gray - Ryan - Mahle - Ober/Maeda Ryan & Mahle get to face other starters that probably don’t match up as well & have a better shot at more W’s as starters. Whoever goes #3 & #4 will have this advantage.
  18. JD-TWINS
    Gallo’s flexibility is a big plus with this team’s brutal injury track record. Assumption is Larnach gets the chance to be LH DH & if he can hit he may get a chance in ‘24 to play some corner OF. Keeping Kepler because of Buxton - Larnach etc. potential on the IL is a solid move. Can’t have Celestino level guys playing in the SHOW due to injuries if we can help it - that’s keeping Max. That’s where we split thoughts. Kepler has been regressing offensively for 3 years……Gordon has only played one year of pro career healthy. Intestinal problem finally figured out & he gained 25 lb in 2022. If you take away his break-in year of ‘21 & look at the two guys in his 2nd year & Kepler’s 8th year it’s a different story. 2022 comparison: Kepler Gordon RBI 43 50 AB’s 388 405 BA .227 .272 HR 9 9 Doubles 18 28 OPS .666 .743 OPS+. 93 113 BB. 49 19 SO. 66. 105 Gordon is getting stronger & seems durable. Deserves more starts in 2023……80 in LF & 50 in CF. $700K Not positive, but it seems Max makes maybe $8 million plus in ‘23……..may be wrong?
  19. JD-TWINS
    V, LH pitching: Taylor CF - Buxton DH - Correa SS - Miranda 1B - Polanco 2B - Farmer 3B - Gordon LF - Jeffers C - Kepler RF Reserves: Kiriloff - Larnach - Gallo Vazquez has to sit for back up Catcher. He’s the only other RH hitter. Moving Buxton around in OF when we have 3 guys that can play RF …..………….He’s going to hopefully play CF 80 games & DH 50 games & sit 30 games. If we get this from him, it’s 13 more games than any other year in his career (117 best so far).
  20. JD-TWINS
    After the read it seems Chafin is the best option! I think Smith/Hand wouldn’t cost much but it seems they would have us muttering under our breath about every 3rd appearance & that’s what we’re trying to avoid. Fulmer/Moore would at least show we care & are trying to put best competitive product on the field. My optimal Pen: Chafin - Maeda - Jax - Moran - Megill - Duran - Thielbar - Alcala (López/Pagán) If we could move López & Pagán for some teenagers & use their salary to pay for Chafin, I’m all in!! I don’t want Moran/Megill/Alcala at AAA just because Pagán & López both make 5 times as much money. Neither performed last year in game situations with good stuff. I’m sure they’ll look encouraging at Spring Training but they both throw way too many center/center fastballs that get rocked!
  21. JD-TWINS
    Pretty much 100% agreement: 1) Go Twins! 2) Miranda was a masher in minors in ‘21……no reason to think other guys succeeding in Minors now are way better just because we want it to be. IF Kiriloff is OK to go & 80% of starters are RH……I see Miranda platooning at 1B for 35 games v. LH pitching. Another 100 games at 3B. 2.5) If Polanco gets back to .270 & 24HR & 80 plus RBI, he’ll be back in 2024. 3) Gallo at 1B v. Miranda, if Kirilof can’t go, is due to the numerous LH hitters we have and the disproportionate number of RH starters that are out there. Gallo v. righty is better fit than Miranda…….Farmer needs to rest CC & Polanco - minimum of 45 total games unavailable at 3B. 4) Taylor will not start more than 20 games against RH pitching. Can’t take that big of a hit offensively with the options we have. That’s 50 total starts & some may be corner OF. 5) ‘24 OF - Buxton - Lewis - Gordon - Larnach - Walner……….no more rental OF’s. 6) If I gave opinion or inferred Gordon should/would only play if somebody is hurt, that’s my fault. It’s a more clear path if someone is hurt. I am a big fan - he was still growing through last season - going to be stronger. I see 80 games in LF & 50 games in CF in ‘23! In Twins OF for another 5 years!
  22. JD-TWINS
    ……..or spent the $10 million on a FA reliever.
  23. JD-TWINS
    If you take Gordon’s 405 AB’s from ‘22 and normalize them for potential 575 AB’s this year it’s 13 HR - 6 triples - 40 doubles ……. pretty sure the Twins or any team would take that power for one of their corner Outfielders. First season since getting drafted he was healthy due to intestinal problems. Gained 25 lb last year in 6 months. He’s got good bat speed & exit velocity & he’ll get stronger. The FO can’t be blind to these facts!
  24. JD-TWINS
    IF Kiriloff can’t go the obvious choice is Gallo at 1B………I’m curious to see if they consider Gordon there? He can play ground balls and lets Gallo stay in corner OF spot. No matter what happens at 1B Farmer has to play 20 - 25 games each at 2B & SS. Rest! He rests Miranda another 25 games at 3B. Also, due to his solid splits v. LH pitching, he’ll start those games at 3B while bumping Miranda to 1B. That’s 100 plus starts for Farmer if the other 3 guys stay healthy. Larnach is the LH hitting DH…..80 games. 50 games in LF. I refuse to think they will play Taylor ahead of Gordon in CF for more than a handful of games v. RH pitching. Gordon is solid & Taylor weak v. RH pitching. Taylor will start in CF v. LH pitching…..that’s 30 games or so. Taylor is late inning PH v. lefty relievers - late inning base runner - late inning D replacement ……….. INSURANCE FOR INJURIES. Buxton, if healthy, plays CF 80 games - DH 50 games. Gordon in CF for 50 games & LF for 80 games. Gallo 30 games in LF - 50 games in RF - 30 games at 1B - 10 games at DH. Kepler 110 games in RF
  25. JD-TWINS
    I had Ryan - CC - Polanco - Gray - Buxton…….I’m pissed I didn’t put Gordon on this list!! Gordon - gained 25 lb last year and could work out for first time in pro career. Last year was his 2nd in the SHOW & he got 405 AB’s playing wherever they needed him. No previous OF experience & he started 98 games out there. 28 doubles - 41 XBH …..50 RBI in the bottom half of line-up. Going to be WAY stronger this spring. He has to play against RH pitching!! 80% of the starters are RH. 80 games in LF - 50 games in CF - 575 AB’s & he hits 40 doubles this year!
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