JD-TWINS

The results and resilience to date are encouraging! Law from The Athletic (neutral Point of View) describes him as a probable “reliever stuff” guy. Stuff is stuff & it’s possible his good results to date are due to not seeing same guys a lot and his unique delivery. At MLB level, usually good stuff wins out & unique mechanics may work in short spots? We’ll find out with a probable first 3 months in St Paul - hoping for continued success! He could be our long reliever in 2nd half of ‘23?

In ‘22 it seems to me Ryan was typically facing the opponents #1. Maybe this changed up over the year due to various details? Regardless of how he pitched against differing levels of talent, he won 13 games in his Rookie Year! If he settles in at #3 starter going forward, that’s great. His ERA in ‘22 suggests he’s a #3, at a minimum, going forward. ’24 starting rotation: Lopez - Ober - Ryan - Paddack - Varland…….at least 5 guys with potential!

Keith Law of The Athletic just rated our Top 20 prospects & has him (Varland) rated as a probable reliever since he does not have a “plus” pitch in his 4 pitch repertoire. Coming from small college Minnesota baseball & to have improved every year significantly is something to get behind. I have no problem with a “consistent #4-#5 stuff guy” that can stay healthy and throw 150-180 innings yearly & sticking with him for years. Pretty sure you can win just as many games started by your #5 guy as you can by your #1 guy?!?!! If Mr. Law is right though - or if Varland proves him right by digressing through 3-4 months in ‘23 - we should see the if his stuff plays better from the Pen. BTW, Law projects SWR as a bullpen arm as well. Maybe, ………maybe, we should assume Sands is a reliever - Winder is a reliever - & one of SWR or Varland is a reliever and potentially free us of Pagán - J. Lopez - etc………our starters of the future will come together……let’s have a STRONG & HEALTHY Pen! Look at how the Rangers built their starting staff for this year…….It can be done in a hurry! At the end of ‘23 we’ll still have López - Paddack - Ryan - Ober as a base, worst case. Varland - SWR - Megill - Jax - Duran - Maeda - Moran - Thielbar - Winder how do these 9 arms look in the Pen going into the ‘23 playoffs?…….hopefully, we sign Chafin or Moore when we have room on 40 man!! Playoff starters would be Best FOUR Results from season out of : Ober - Ryan - Gray - López - Mahle

Gallo v. Sano ……this comparison, along with your redundancy comments about our LH batting OF, surely suggests we could get along just fine without either one of these two guys!!! Just because Sano’s offensive numbers are. better than Gallo’s doesn’t mean that we should sign Miguel.

Great comparative numbers! ……,,,,apparently Joey is going to make 3-4 game winning catches this year to prove his worth. This, along wi

16-13 is my guess ……….splitting hairs in April. Gonna need a couple good streaks to make the playoffs and these seldom happen in April. No reason to look at schedule for April and feel bad about things. It’s the first 18% of the year’s schedule. Our pitching depth 1-5 will pay off but it may take until July to show up as an advantage……….15 wins/month gets us to a 90 win season. Playoff worthy?

Maybe Kirilof in the mix in ‘24 with DH & 1B capabilities?

Polanco played SS in the SHOW for years…..his arm should be sufficient, relative to the rest of the league, at 2B! Correa is solid with arm strength. Miranda is on a conditioning kick to be in better shape - we’ll see how it works out. Good news is Farmer will play 3B v. lefties (Miranda @ 1B) plus he will provide rest additionally for all 3 IF guys (25 games each) & he’s a former everyday SS so his nearly 100 starts should meet arm criteria as well.

Seems a little premature on the path to the majors in ‘24……he’s only been to High A & there’s not a clear position. Seems he’ll need another 2 years to be ready - right? He’ll turn 22 in April of ‘25……seems logical first year for his physical & skill set maturity.

He doesn’t get to pitch against Detroit & KC as often as last year……..good success against them! Although, he will be, the whole staff will be, facing teams that haven’t seen him……should be advantage pitcher! Advantage particularly since most of the National League teams will only see him once the entire year. Again, if you average his innings per start at 5.7 and give him 28 starts……..the bar is an average of 1.64 runs per 5.7 inning start. Those are lofty expectations! Hope he puts up a bunch of Zeros!

J. Lopez only real career success is April - June of ‘22. He spent 4-5 years prior as a struggling starter………started to decline in Baltimore in July’22……even at the hands of the Twins. Came over after having been an All-Star and wasn’t very good at all. He can’t be our answer for success! Duran was used situationally last year because we had guys prior to the 9th messing up leads (Pagán - Smith - López - Duffey) so Baldelli was trying to piece something together. Also, not a very traditional move to make a Rookie, that hadn’t been a reliever, and making him your closer!

93MPH is fine if you can PITCH! Moving the ball - throwing strikes - getting guys out. Varland is a 4th-5th MLB starter now for a whole bunch of teams. If he can eat innings and stays healthy, he’s on the staff for good starting in ‘24. 2024 Pitching Staff - Starters: Lopez - Mahle (assuming health) - Ryan - Varland - Paddock ………maybe Maeda as a long reliever in ‘24………..another prospect that has a nice year in ‘23 may displace Mahle or Maeda depending upon our ability to sign either of them. 9th prospect is in the mix!

Miranda getting in better shape and slimming 10 lbs or whatever is a lot different than a 1200 calorie starvation diet that will “sap all batting skills/power”. Miranda played 2000 innings at 3B in minors……that was his target position. We shed salary moving Urshella ($10M) & we made room for an organizational potential star at 1B (Kirilof) by focusing Miranda at 3B. If Kiriloff can’t play, Miranda has a new home in ‘24 at 1B. The salary shed allowed a trade for Farmer ($5M) - a much more skilled option as a SS bridge to Lewis & gang. We signed CC and now things may seem odd but losing Gio (even though I loved his consistency & clutch hitting) makes sense as we evolve our younger guys. Miranda was a star in ‘21 in minors & was in the mix for ROY in ‘22 after only 4 months. He’s gonna be OK!!

If Kirilof goes down, it seems obvious that Gallo takes over at 1B and when lefties start against us Miranda plays 1B. No Gurriel nor anyone else brought in with mediocre potential at this point in their career. Our outfield is fine if Gallo were gone tomorrow. LF Gordon/Larnach/:Gallo CF Buxton/Gordon/Taylor RF Kepler/Gallo/Larnach ……………… FIRST BASE Kirilof/Gallo/Miranda If Kirilof goes down & Gallo or Kepler are a liability into June, I would expect Walner or soon after, Lewis, to be in play! Lewis/Farmer to 3B & Miranda to 1B.

I will be interested to see how CF shakes out! Many, as you do, state that the FO & organization intend on Michael Taylor to play CF 60-100 games. I don’t see this happening - have a different slant. Taylor’s offense is not there v. right handed pitching. Similar comment could be made about Nick Gordon v. left handed pitching. It’s my opinion that Buxton will have a goal of 80 starts in CF……50 starts at DH. I see Taylor playing CF every time a Lefty starts against us……..30 games. His other AB’s come from pinch hit opportunities & maybe 5 starts in CF v. righties. He’s INSURANCE in case of long stretch injury. He’ll be late inning pinch runner - late inning defense as needed. If we face 130 Righty starters, Buxton starts v. 80 of them in CF……this leaves 45 plus starts for Gordon in CF & his much superior offense v. Taylor. Larnach starts in LF those 45 games. He DH’s another 70 games v. RH pitching. Gordon starts 80 games in LF v. RH starters. Kepler starts 110 games in RF. Gallo plays 50 games in RF - 35 games in LF - 30 games at 1B - 10 games at DH. Everyone plays 110 -135 games and is fresh in September/October!! Here’s to good health!!!

Seems the Author’s goals for Ryan seem to be most lofty - difficult to attain. I responded previously with an innings expectation of 160 innings 5.7 innings X 28 starts……assuming they skip 2-3 starts somehow if he’s got perfect health. The ERA of under 3.00 is what I don’t understand as a goal? He’d have to seldom - almost never - give up more than 2 runs per start. To me, unrealistic. He was our #1 last year as a Rookie and slotted there due to lack of other choices. All year, baseball people called him an actual #3-#4 starter. No reason to set such high expectations. My math is 46 earned runs for the regular season……..160 innings pitched (160/46 = 3.48ERA)…………46 earned runs/28 starts = 1.64 Earned Runs per start. That’s a plenty high expectation for a 2nd year guy.

League Average OPS……what is that typically? My parallel Goals: Gordon plays 80 games in LF & 50 games in CF against RH pitching and his OPS is .750 plus & he bats .270 & has 12HR with 38 doubles! Walks once more per week and strikes out once less per week. Buxton plays 80 games in CF & DH 50 games……….30HR & cuts back on K’s by 20% - stay healthy for playoffs! Try to hit .245 plus (career average) Miranda hits .275 & has 85 RBI……OPS of .775 plus……play Top 20 defense at 3B, that’s fine in year 1!! Polanco - stay healthy and get in 135 starts. 22HR with a .270 BA…..back to normal! Kepler 110 starts in RF - post shift lift BA off .260 and maintain walk %. Gallo - ditto on Harrison’s goals ….same with Kirilof. Vazquez needs to be different at Catcher than what we’ve been seeing and hopefully hit his career BA of .274 with 50-60 RBI. Jeffers needs to mash the 30 odd lefties he’ll start against and play solid defense in his 55 starts. Correa doesn’t need to win awards - just be what we expect……20HR ……..BA of .275 ……stay in line-up 140 games. Drive in more runs when opportunity presents this year.

Lefty Starter: Taylor CF Buxton DH Correa SS Miranda 1B Farmer 3B Jeffers C Larnach LF Polanco 2B Gallo RF

His 2022 was down in performance & he was hurt for a big stretch. So he’s a .270 career BA & 20 plus HR guy. He hits from both sides and has previously been an average or better defender. He’s declined on D and now that the Shift is behind us we’ll see where he’s at now. If he hits .270 in the middle of our line up, which he seems to be capable of if healthy, and hits his 20 HR, it’s a success!! If he plays “OK” defense, and hits, I can’t see us worrying about his potential $10 million in 2024. Need that veteran presence with Vazquez - Correa - Buxton up the middle. I think either Gordon or Duran would be the most underrated coming off 2022. Duran was at the Top of the League for relievers in ‘22! Not much more to say about his performance……..how he’s perceived by outside Twins nation, he’s way underrated! Easy to take him for granted if one is a local fan as well! Gordon played wherever needed - with nearly everyone around him getting hurt for big stretches he played 4 different positions. 65 games in LF and 33 games in CF in his first year ever playing OF. Got a handful of games at SS and a couple dozen at 2B……..I think he has now cemented himself in the OF. He gained 25 lbs in 2022 and is healthy (intestinal issue) for the first time as a professional. 113 OPS+ ……. .272BA………28 doubles in 405 AB’s. I think with playing time he gets 40 doubles in 550 AB’s. Best answer in CF v. RH pitching when Buxton is DH or resting.

Agreed mostly. I think Taylor pinch hits late against lefties - pinch runs - goes in for late defense if we’re ahead - starts in CF for every game there’s a left handed starter going. I don’t see him playing any corner OF as you state, unless late for Gordon or Larnach. That’s it for him though - he’s insurance & buffer between MLB OF and the guys you mentioned above that we saw late last year. I do not see him playing against right handed starters more than a handful of times. Gordon hits too well to not sandwich him between Kepler & Gallo…….as long as we have them both. Gallo for some erratic power and good outfield play. The 1B option is, as you say, gravy. I do think Gallo - Kepler both until the trade deadline and then Lewis is back & we move one of the lefty corner bats.

With the Buxton - Larnach - Kirilof injury histories, like it or not, it makes sense to hang on to Kepler & see if he or Gallo has more value to our club up to the deadline. Also, Kepler ensure’s that we don’t need to go any deeper than Walner at AAA if there are injuries. Buxton played 140 games in 2017 and in other 6 years (other than Covid ‘20) he’s played an average of 68 games per year. Need depth! 2022 stats: Buxton Gordon Kepler Games 92 136 115 AB’s 340 405 388 Hits 76 128 88 BA .224 .272 .227 HR 28 9 9 Doubles 13 28 18 RBI 51 50 43 OPS .833 .743 .666 OPS+ 135 113 93 SO 116 105 66 BB. 34. 19 49 OBP. .306. .316. .318 Gordon had 1st healthy season since signing - first year playing OF - gained 25 lb in 2022. His 2nd year in SHOW vs. the other 2 guy’s 8th season. If he K’s once less per week & walks once more per week he’s a solid MLB outfielder that hits 40 doubles & 14 HR per year………….did this comparison to show Gordon should play vs. RH pitching nearly 100% of the time in LF or CF. If Gallo needs AB’s he needs to start maybe 50 games in LF but the other 30 games each should come from Kepler in RF & Kirilof at 1B. Gordon could get OBP up to .335 and SO/BB ratio down to 2:1 this year, or even approach that, & he’s our LF …….Buxton’s primary back-up in CF, for years!! Basically, Gordon is performing offensively like we all hoped that Kepler would.

Liked Urshella but $10 million v. Miranda at $700K is a wash in the box score. Seems that most of the contributors missed the Kyle Farmer trade. He was the starting SS for the Reds - he hit 15 - 20 points less than Urshella in ‘22. He’s the back-up in ‘23 at 3B - SS - 2B for Twins & will start at 3B v. LH pitching as Miranda will then go to 1st………that’s 100 starts if everybody stays healthy. Farmer’s at approximately 1/2 of Urshella’s salary. Connecting Kepler & Gallo situation with Urshella doesn’t make any sense to me. With Farmer, originally, we got a bridge guy to get us to Lewis - Lee - Martin. With the CC signing we now have a polished utility IF. Twins wanted room for Kirilof at 1st and needed Miranda at 3rd to make that happen. Miranda was offensive star in ‘21 in minors and in discussion for Rookie of Year playing only 4 months in ‘22.

Going with what I see as Reality roster for everyday guys out of Spring Training V. LH starter: Taylor CF - Buxton DH - Correa SS - Miranda 1B - Polanco 2B - Farmer 3B - Gordon LF - Jeffers C - Kepler RF 30 games or so v. Lefthander. V. RH starter: Gordon CF - Kirilof 1B - Correa SS - Larnach DH - Polanco 2B - Gallo LF - Vazquez C - Kepler RF - Miranda 3B Buxton plays v RH maybe 80 games as CF & another 20 as DH. Gordon plays 50 games in CF…….Taylor has all the CF starts against LH starters. CC batting 3rd & Polanco batting 5th day in day out for stability. Lewis in the mix at end of July with Gallo or Kepler possibly being moved, based on results after 100 games.

Keep Everyday roster static & sign Chafin or Fulmer. This, to me, is very realistic & should happen w/o an issue. Reynolds isn’t that special IMO & he displaces Larnach & Gordon in LF going forward & they both provide plenty of offense V. righties. Gordon - 28 doubles & 9 HR in ‘22 (1st full season) with 405 AB’s & .750 OPS…….if he walks once more a week & strikes out once less a week, he’s a star in the making!! V. LH starter: Taylor CF - Buxton DH - Correa SS - Miranda 1B - Polanco 2B - Farmer 3B - Gordon LF - Jeffers C - Kepler RF I think this line-up with 3 platoon guys with solid splits against LH pitching looks good! V. RH starter: Gordon CF - Polanco 2B - Correa SS - Larnach DH - Kirilof 1B - Vazquez C - Kepler RF - Miranda 3B - Gallo LF I think this line-up will have Buxton in Center 60% of the time but looking at it here with 3 left handed hitting Outfielders. Shows we can get Larnach & Kirilof in the line-up & still have 3 other LH guys in OF, plus Polanco. Keeping Larnach for 50% of DH at bats vs. RH pitching & maybe 40 games in LF. Keeping Kepler because Gallo may be our Opening Day first baseman??? Kiriloff & Buxton are health wildcards. I’ve seen enough of Celestino in our MLB outfield - need the depth. If we choose, based on how things are going, we trade Gallo or Kepler with pieces at the break to fill a hole in the Staff & to get Lewis on the roster.

All 5 guys gotta pitch every week so having a maybe #2 & last year’s #1 (Ryan) going as a #4 this year works. We have equally or better guys from #2 - #5 v. most staffs & 3 or 4 more #5’s in St Paul if needed.