JD-TWINS

Polanco: 29 yrs old in ‘23 only 77 games in 2018 after most of a full season in 2017. 104 games in 2022 - 16 HR - 56 RBI solid defense at 2B 56 RBI batting 3rd - 4th - 5th predominantly .235 BA in ‘22 - career is .270ish ………………… Arraez: 26 yrs old in ‘23 129 starts - 144 games in 2022 - 8 HR - 49 RBI solid defense at 1B 49 RBI batting lead-off predominantly .316 BA in ‘22 - career is .314 ……………………. IMO…..Arraez, if batting in the spots Polanco was in would have significantly more RBI. .366 RISP in ‘22. Polanco has more power but Arraez has an advantage with contact capability and BA. IMO….we have an unproven, oft injured Alex Kiriloff as our next in line at 1B………we have 4-5 guys in system that could play 2B since the signing of CC. Polanco had an impressive 2021……I would not trade either of these guys. Polanco seemed he was banged up more than his normal in ‘22. Gotta see where he’s at with his health & bat in ‘23. Can’t trade Arraez!!!

Luis Arraez 2022 - .366 BA with RISP, 48 RBI with 80% of his games batting out of lead-off spot. LAST GUY the opposing teams wants to see coming to bat with guys on base. Not CC - Not Buxton. If he bats 3rd or 5th he’s trying to “drive in runs” vs. “get on base” out of lead-off spot. Had 9 HR in ‘22 & can elevate that to 12 with just more experience and hitting in a different spot in line-up. If he hits .325 with RISP down in the line-up he has 85 RBI! .366 BA with RISP is not someone that should be discussed in trade talks.

How many times have Lewis (12 games) - Lee - Larnach - Kiriloff hit .300 in the Show??? Only Lee, after most of one season in our system, seems to be able to stay on the field. Can’t keep chasing the next good hitter based on headlines & ignore the bird in hand! ELEVEN guys in MLB hit .300 or better in 2022. Arraez has a 4 year batting average of .314. He started 129 games & played in 144 games in ‘22. He’s above average at 1B. Gotta be a place for him, at 25 yrs old, on the Twins roster for another 6 years plus. Bat Arraez in the 3 or 5 spot, where Kirilof may be plugged in, and he’ll drive in runs. He slap hits out of the 1 or 2 spot in the line-up because his job is “….to get on base”. He can protect someone in the line-up and drive in runs down in the line-up a bit. He’s a 35 double - 12 HR guy and a 130 single guy as a regular. With his bat to ball skills he’s going to hit .300 plus in the middle of the line-up and he’ll walk if he’s not seeing good pitches. I think all 4 guys you mention can be solid pieces for the Twins!! I do think that of the 4, I’d view Kirilof as the most disposable for pitching. Can’t imagine that with his health history anyone is very interested. Luzardo of Marlins should be the upgrade we are looking for in ‘23 & future. 100.3 innings in ‘22 - 3.32 ERA - 1.2 K’s/9 - 1.03 WHIP - Lefty - 18 starts…..25 yrs old going into his 5th season. As with all arms, health is assumed - that said, big upside with this guy! For any 3 of these guys: Lopez - Celestino - Martin or Kirilof - Kepler - Sands - Jeffers - Pagan - 1 of any farm system IF other than Lewis or Lee. Can’t imagine this not working for Miami & Twins keep the batting champ.

How about Martin - Kepler - Celestino for Luzardo??

Potentially, he could DH on Sunday afternoons against a lefty starter here & there but only 5-6 times through the year. This gets Farmer in the line-up, RH bat while keeping Miranda’s RH bat in line-up. Buxton - Jeffers - Polanco all RH bats as well. No reason to move anyone into SS unless Correa loses range - his arm is superior and should remain so………he may start playing 3rd at 32 yrs. or so? Too athletic and arm to superior to end up at 1st base.

Kepler can’t make $7-9.5 million this year and play behind Joey Gallo. I would much rather have had Kepler in right & not have Gallo but that’s not the case. Gallo blocking Gordon in LF doesn’t make sense. I really think that the Shift elimination will help Kepler add 20-25 points to BA. Stating it’s not his fault that the Mgr. keeps penciling him into the middle of the line-up when he should be at 7 or lower seems odd. He did hit 36 HR’s in 2019. Maybe the expectations of a little power aren’t completely out of reason. Gallo just makes Max a bad fit - would like to see him on our roster but it’s not practical with the young guys behind him.

MINNESOTA TWINS is where Rich Rollins played………..intermittently sharing 3rd base duties some years with Harmon Killebrew.

There’s always another trade package or another option in a trade. Sometimes (often) the two sides can’t compromise & get anything done. If we can’t get a pitcher we want unless we trade Luis Arraez as part of the deal, maybe we need to realize how valuable he is and how much other teams understand his value. Batting Champ at .316 in ‘22. (.314 BA over 1st 4 years in Show) .366 BA with RISP in ‘22……25 years old……should be a no brainer.

Agreed. Arbitration is there to protect the players, he’ll get closer to $6million! I disagree with the Author in that while the article is positive, it suggests Arraez could be traded under proper circumstance. .314 BA over 4 seasons Played 144 games & through injury in ‘22 Defensive flexibility Will be only 26 years old in April .366 with RISP in ‘22 (bat him 3rd or 5th & he’d protect the guy in front of him & would probably have 85 RBI or more) Currently “a light, contact hitter” but that’s what you are supposed to do when leading off - get on base! Acting like Lewis, Lee, Julien (am optimistic but Show Me) are at a level of Arraez is like saying some kid playing WR at USC is going to be Justin Jefferson……..he’s got most of 4 years in the Show and is just 25. All this on top of infectious enthusiasm and solid Team guy……..can’t trade this type of player.

Agreed, not a terrible move but not something to get too excited about…….If he flies for a 5th starter in ‘24 we win! Paddack & Ryan can be the “experienced” part of the Staff in ‘24 when SWR & Varland are going every 5th day.

Luzardo from Miami 🤞🤞 for inexpensive control guys back to Miami: Luzardo to Twins Marlins get IF from farm system (not Lee nor Lewis)……….Celestino………Pagan or López. If we need to be more aggressive, Martin from farm instead of IF piece. Maybe Walner? Kepler for sure & Polanco (reluctantly) are in play for starting pitching. We have instant depth at 3rd & 2nd with the CC signing. Arraez - Larnach - Lee - Lewis - Miranda - Kirilof - Buxton - Correa - Vazquez - Duran - Gordon……….to me, these guys are the Core moving forward & shouldn’t be in trade talks prior to ‘23 results. Realistically, anyone else is fair to consider.

Per the Author of the original post……LOVE the positivity!! Will $35 million restrict what we can spend elsewhere? Of course!! At least we are spending without creating reasons not to spend in the press to cover our rear, like, we can’t sign him because he might hit .239 again. IMO the Author is pointing out the damned if you do & damned if you don’t view the fans have of the FO and carry as fans in MN in general. If we add a starter via trade to help us around potential issues this year eating innings - we get Maeda into the Pen for depth - we sign a FA reliever……..all in the next 6-7 weeks & we’re a top 4 or 5 team in the A.L. Every organization has issues………the Author is saying Deal with it and let’s support the club vs. choosing to use our fandom to be a drag on the team. Every fan of the game for more than 50 years, regardless of the team they support, can’t stand the lack of fundamentals shown in today’s game. Players don’t know the terms, Sacrafice or Hit & Run nor can they execute in a number of ways we appreciate & believe are essential for success. Many starters batting averages are under .250 and strikeout way too often! Things have changed - changed so much that this year the SHIFT is being outlawed. A reversal to the good old days. None of this is specific to the TWINS nor have anything to do with Rocco Baldelli. Soooo tired of people/fans complaining about how he handles our starters. Same approach with essentially every team - the stats bare this out. Guys gotta perform!!! Smith - Duffey - Pagan - López are the reasons we had 27 blown saves, not because Baldelli can’t pitch nor because he over worked them. They weren’t good! Hoping for better this year! Enjoy the season.

I like the thoughts on strengthening the Pen! The guy in Pittsburgh is solid & Puk seems to be an upside guy as well. Either of these moves is positive! I realize Twins do not have endless funds but I see reliever track record & availability on the Free Agent market. Michael Fulmer is solid and a path to the 9th. He isn’t going to complement Duran as a closer but he is available and solid. Also, I think Chafin is another FA target that could close games in the right line-up situation - good track record - available. Would prefer we take trade pieces for a Starter and take one or two of the guys from the reliever trade and add/overpay a bit to get a Luzardo from the Marlins. I get we have 8 or more starters lined up now but GRAY - MAHLE - MAEDA - OBER - WINDER are all potentially fragile!! That’s real & it’s 5 of our top 6 guys. Add the starting depth via trade and move Maeda to Pen for depth there is what I think is our best move.

Walner needs AB’s everyday in St. Paul 1)Gallo got signed to play - can’t expect him to play much against Lefties. He’s in RF 90 games & in CF 30 games. 2)Buxton has to start 80 games in CF along with 45 games as DH. 3) Gordon…….28 doubles & 9 HR in 405 AB’s & .272 BA last year. He’s in the line-up. With Farmer on club, & CC playing everyday SS, Farmer is the utility infielder. Gordon is an outfielder (period) outside of an emergency! Gordon starts 50 games in CF and 90 games in LF. 4) With assumed health, Larnach is 4th OF. LF when Gordon is in CF or resting. Gets Larnach 60 games in LF & another 50 games as DH. 5) Unknown. RH batting OF. Plays right when Gallo sits against lefty starters & when Gallo plays CF. Probably 60-70 games in RF & maybe a handful in LF. Kepler is gone via trade & hopefully Celestino & Pagan are gone too. Can we cover #5’s games with Farmer & Kirilof in OF. Only FA I like is Adam Duvall - former Red/Brave…….might work out?

So we have Gordon - Buxton - Gallo & who else? Larnach has to be in OF mix as well as DH. Assumption of health. I see Kirilof at DH - 1B - 20 games of OF. Assumption of health. Kepler is gone as you state. Walner in St. Paul to get everyday at bats - be prepared to take Gallo’s spot at some point. We need a major league hitter - defender from right side of the plate. Needed particularly with Gallo’s potential weak BA. Who is it?? Can we assume we have a better player on the 40 man or 60 man better than Celestino? Certainly not pushing for Celestino but don’t know the answer. Duvall, formerly of Reds/Braves? Anyone else now that McCutchen is gone? Anyone in organization potentially ready this spring? RH bat? Can Farmer play RF?…….can’t imagine it

My recollection of ‘22 watching games once in a while from Cincinnati. Gordon got an opportunity in LF everyday due to OF injuries. Played well. Whenever Buxton needed a day off or if he went to the IL, Gordon played CF. Played reasonably well. As the season wore on Polanco couldn’t play 2nd so Gordon ended up there. With Kepler getting hurt - Buxton being out - Gordon forced into infield, the outfield had Jake Cave & Gilberto Celestino daily due to Zero other options. We need a better option than Celestino for our 5th outfielder!! His age, lack of time to develop, whatever, does not matter. It’s time to win games & he’s not the answer. Kepler is gone via trade. Hopefully, Celestino can be part of same trade with Kepler. Larnach has 60 games in LF, maybe 60 games at DH………Gordon plays 80 games in LF, maybe 60 games in CF……….Gallo plays 100 games in RF, maybe 15 games in CF………Buxton plays 85 games in CF, maybe 40 games at DH…………5th outfielder gets 20 games in LF (depending if we keep Kiriloff) & maybe another 60 games in RF. Would be best if 5th outfielder can bat Right handed - obvious, right? Walner needs to develop and get at bats everyday in St. Paul. Needs to be ready when there’s an OF injury or when Gallo fails & gets DFA’d. Need to pick up a guy OR if somebody in lower Farm System has a RH that’s

I’d be cool with a solid/consistent #5. We’ll have Ryan. Assumed we’ll have Varland or SWR. Hopefully, we’ll have an acquired by trade starter. Last, we extend Mahle or Gray. Semantics maybe, we’ll be happy if he’s succeeding as a starter!

Makes sense if the elbow is fixed - work on mixing the 3rd pitch during back half of ‘23 and be ready for a promising ‘24.

Moran has decent fastball - great change - left handed……he’s on the staff. Megill has a plus fastball - a plus curveball…….he’s on the staff. They both could be devastating with better strike/ball command ……that’s like saying if a golfer could only putt he’d be better - I get it! The other move toward dominance is for them both to develop a third pitch & improve command.,; If Moran could develop a cutter or some off-speed pitch moving left to right, even just to SHOW, he’d be way more effective. Same with Megill, a cutter or a change-up to SHOW would make his other 2 pitches un-hittable. Luzardo or some other pitcher acquisition to force Maeda to Pen would be ideal. Signing Fulmer or Chafin from FA would be cherry on top!!

Can’t say we paid “too much” for Gallo. The fact that we signed him AT ALL instead of letting Walner have his innings or hanging on to Kepler for continuity is what’s disturbing. If he has mild success, 22HR & .220 BA good defense in 125 games, it’s a bit more upside than Kepler due to the power in less innings. I think Walner could be comparable as a rookie BUT if Gallo wakes up, he may hit .235 with 35 HRs. Anyway, the fact that we took the risk & signed him period is the scary thing - if he performs at all to his potential, $11 million is a normal salary. Gordon - Buxton - Gallo - Larnach - (???? Right Handed Bat)……FA? who’s the guy, assuming it’s not Celestino? Farmer - Miranda - Kirilof - Arraez - Polanco - Correa Jeffers - Vazquez Trade: Kepler - Young Farm infielder (not Lee nor Lewis) - Celestino - maybe Kirilof for the Marlins pitcher we can pry away….. Luzardo maybe? Don’t know if Kirilof is tradable with his wrist issues…..I think he’s the easiest guy NOT TO MISS. Need to make this trade happen before the assets are gone from Miami to other suitors.

The offer to McCuthen screams “……Celestino is not the answer, near term nor long term…..” Can’t be more happy that the FO concedes that!!!!!! Glad the FO is still active!! Gordon - Buxton - Gallo for our basic outfield with Larnach - Gordon - Gallo seeing lots of action against righties (Buxton in ‘23. We really could use a guy to spell Gallo against lefty starters. I’ve noticed in some comments over last week that Farmer may play some OF…….I live in Cinti & don’t recall that? I’d be good with that as it may open us to a RH batting DH vs. outfielder. RH Soler from Miami as part of the pitching trades? RH Duvall off the FA market?

Luzardo seems to be a controllable guy through 2026……he was touted very highly due to his stuff……….always a good thing. Learned how to pitch and had real success in ‘22 over 100 innings. He seems to be plenty of upside for TWINS. Trade back controllable pieces for Luzardo: Julien - Martin - Rodriguez - Kirilof (2 of these) & Kepler - every day solid with potential upside at the plate with the shift eliminated. (doubt Gallo is tradable - would gladly add him & keep Max) & Pagan or Lopez - upside with stuff, experience. Analytics seem to like their velocity - spin - etc. Maybe Miami thinks they can harness their lack of command in the zone? To me, that’s a haul for Miami, 3 potential guys for active roster plus one really good prospect!

There’s 22 guys in MLB that hit over .290 in ‘22. 11 guys hit over .300. We have a guy that hit .316 & lead the A.L. He will turn 26 in April. His four year BA is .314. Next best average on team is CC at .291 - 21st on the list of 22. He is a contact hitter. He’s positioned in the lead-off spot most of the time so his job is to “get on base”. When Carew moved from #2 to #3 in the line-up he hit 14 HR’s twice after a handful for his first 7 years……,he had 90 plus RBI a couple times, 100 RBI in ‘77. I don’t think Arraez is Carew but he’s awfully close. Carew had bad knees and moved from 2B to 1B around his 7th-8th year in league & then proceeded to make the All-Star team 11 more times at 1B. Considering, just considering, to trade Luis Arraez is nuts!!! With our current line-up he may be most valuable leading off……..not sure though? He is a great guy to have behind someone in the line-up you want to see better pitches (protect). He could bat 2nd, behind Buxton……3rd behind Buxton……..5th behind Miranda or Polanco?? Any other position from 3rd or lower in line-up & his RBI go from 48 to 85!!! Starting Pitcher trade material from TWINS…….Kepler - López - Jeffers - Martin - Celestino - Pagan - Winder - Sands………IF necessary, Walner or Kirilof. Maybe an Infielder other than Lewis or Lee. Needs to be some 4-5 player deal without Arraez that can get us an arm.

IMO Kepler is the throw in piece we need to move and he stabilizes risk for the opposing GM. He’s an everyday starter with a great glove (if your organization needs that) and an upside as the shift is removed in ‘23. Still only 29 I believe. Pagan is a similar piece that adds some upside with his stuff & potential based on his stuff. Lopez could fit into the mix as well with same upside as Pagan. “2022 All-Star” may help López’ worth?? Celestino is another guy that doesn’t fit with our glut of OF & with a weaker bat, may need some more seasoning to attain his ceiling. Ober - Winder - Sands are guys we need to help balance a trade with do the other GM looks good! Last, Martin or Walner to top off the trade & to bring the true upside for other GM future.

Amen to Nick Gordon being an OUTFIELDER & no longer a utility infielder. 100% on him being best option, probably 60 plus games in CF this year, behind Buxton. Every day LF otherwise!! 550 at bats & he’s a 40 doubles - 15 HR guy with durability & speed. 160lbs to 185lbs in 6 months last winter/spring. ”Celestino. Please.” …….again, 100%. Can’t be in” on roster of 26!! TRADE: Celestino - Kepler - (1 of Sands - Winder - Ober) - Farm System IF as well - with our new depth at SS. (hang on to Lee & Lewis) These 4 guys for a front line starter. I think, with moderate success, we extend Mahle - Gray - Maeda in late June……2 of the 3 possibly. Also, I see Maeda out of the Pen first 2-3 months at least. Kirilof or Walner, if an absolute must, should be offered in a trade before Arraez!! He’s 26 and just scratching his potential. If he hit anywhere but lead-off his doubles & RBI would be up considerably. He’s in “get on base mode” batting lead-off. Can’t disrespect the 4 year BA of .314!! .316 in ‘22 wasn’t some fluke, or high point for trade purposes. We wish & hope 3-4 other guys in our Farm System could turn into the hitter Arraez is……cannot trade the batting champ!