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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    Piggyback Maeda & Ober. 6 starters just puts more stress on the bullpen daily. I get the theory that the extra day or two between starts would suggest a starter would last longer into each start. It’s still facing a line-up a third time in 90 minutes. I think this is fools gold……the extra 2/3 - 1 inning more out of every starter - 6 of them, so that we can trim the Pen to 7 guys. If Maeda needs to start v. being long man in Pen then he should start every 5th day with the goal being 3-5 innings…….if he struggles, somebody from Pen works out of the inning & then Ober starts a fresh inning & finishes the game. So Ober is throwing 5 innings or less per outing. Between them they cover 8-9 innings based on the quality of Maeda’s start. Occasionally, a closer may be used for an inning or less. This approach allows Maeda to build-up his arm through June. This approach allows Twins to use Ober regularly and not waste his innings in St. Paul. This approach essentially gives the Pen a day off every 5th day, allowing for a 7 man Pen. My first preference is Ober as 5th starter and Maeda in long relief. It appears there is an impass with Maeda’s contract and the Twins feel they need to honor letting him start games…………re-work his deal ASAP & do the right thing for the Club!
  2. JD-TWINS
    If they win 10 games in a row in April it makes losing 10 in a row in August, palatable. Losing games later in the season make fans more anxious…..they all count the same. More room for continued optimism after losing games early……that’s the difference. The appearance to people, means the fans, & can’t worry about managing the club for the fans. IMO
  3. JD-TWINS
    Understand the skepticism with Pen but this seems a bit over the top………it’s like listing the line-up and stating why each guy COULD hit under .220……In a group of 9-11 guys there will be some disappointments, but I think we can start with just Pagán & López as the suspect choices in our Pen. These two have been targets for replacement in my comments at TD for 3-4 months. The bullpens 2nd half resurgence was, in my opinion, due to getting rid of under-performers (Smith - Duffey - etc.) as well as, the Pen’s ability to rack up smooth, stress-free, innings from late August through September after the crunch of being in first place. Pagan & López have good stuff, but in my opinion, they don’t have the mental toughness nor the intestinal fortitude to pitch in big spots. I know López had a nice 3 months plus last year in Baltimore……lost 2 games to Twins before the trade. His 6 year history is brutal. Within throwing their exceptional stuff they both groove fastballs routinely. Frankly, am struggling that Hoffman is in the mix for a roster spot as well. Somebody has to pitch well - or Ok at least. I’m assuming that’s a healthy Alcala - Jax - Moran - Thielbar - Durán - maybe Winder/Sands - López/Pagán??? Am hoping for an adjustment in management thinking and we see SWR & Balazovic in relief sooner than later if there’s a need.
  4. JD-TWINS
    You got it flipped ……Gordon v. RH pitching & Farmer v. LH pitching. The Castro ability to play 2B & OF may have some traction but he needs to hit as well! Solano’s last 4 years v. LH pitching is awfully solid…….I think they give him an opportunity to play some 2B or 1B v. LH pitching in the Show.
  5. JD-TWINS
    Movement & seeming quick to batters is how I assumed your “overpowering” comment was meant. Swings & misses! Good article. Even though it may have felt like it, Bundy & Archer didn’t start 2/3 of our games in ‘22……...maybe 50 games or so, 30%?
  6. JD-TWINS
    Our roster is built to take advantage of the Left - Right platoon players we have. Can’t get lost on whether we are in the road or not. If Miranda plays as well on the road, better than others, …….and he’s in the line-up most everyday……rest him at home more than on the road - common sense!
  7. JD-TWINS
    Wild guess….92-70…..can’t see injuries being a big issue again with the current depth. Relief corp is biggest concern. Just hope that either couple guys improve dramatically, or we don’t waste a bunch of chances on Pagan & López. Nobody has gold glove OF & former starting SS as depth, platoon players……it’s common here to read about how poor the FO is doing……not sure they shouldn’t be getting pretty high praise for the 26 man we’re starting with in ‘23! Good fortune with the Farmer acquisition & the CC falling into our lap, yep……as they say, you make your own good fortune.
  8. JD-TWINS
    Maeda out of the Pen for long relief seems to be logical (back from TJ surgery) with Ober at #5 starter. Ober, more than likely runs out of gas by mid-July/Aug. 1. Throughout July, if having success, we can stretch out Maeda. Maeda works 2-3 innings a couple times per week April - June to ease him back. Ready to start in August, if needed. Contract issues seem to make this approach with Maeda unfair to him/impossible. I say, do what’s best for team to win. If we need to show good faith to Maeda and to players in general, re-do his contract so incentives make sense for both parties & he can comfortably be used where needed. The money he can realistically earn from his incentives is around $3-3.5M. Give him $2.75 and remove incentives or target them to relief innings, etc. Other plausible approach is to have Maeda start every 5th day and plan on Ober, coming in with a clean inning, to pitch the back half of the game. They both get innings lowered but essentially eliminate Bull Pen use every 5th start. May need a reliever to bridge from one guy to the other in middle of the game. That’s typically going to be an out or two. This is a way to keep their innings down to 20 innings per month so they are still fresh when August starts. Also, the Pen is getting refreshed every 5th day so carrying only 7 relievers can work.
  9. JD-TWINS
    Exactly! Also, we got Solano to load up the line-up with RH batters v. LH pitching. Farmer - 3B, Solano - 2B, & Miranda 1B……..at least some combination of these 3 guys at these 3 positions v. LH pitching. Gordon daily v. RH pitching. Polanco back soon we hope.
  10. JD-TWINS
    It seems then, that they played him there this spring purposefully…….. Gordon will be at 2B v. every RH pitcher we face until Polanco is back healthy. I think Solano at 2B v. LH pitching with Farmer at 3B & Miranda at 1B. If Polo was limping with a sleeve on his knee and skipping workouts 14 days prior to Opening Day he will not be ready. Need to make an adjustment of expectations. Larnach takes Polanco’s spot in roster and plays a little LF but is the regular DH v. RH pitching.
  11. JD-TWINS
    Have other LH bats ahead of him….if a couple guys are hurt, then Julien may get a shot! Solano isn’t, as you said, a viable bat against RH pitching.
  12. JD-TWINS
    Interesting to see how this DH spot will be managed in ‘23 - my slant here….details below. Seems IF Polanco & Kiriloff are both OK to go Opening Day, Larnach will be off the roster. Taylor - Farmer - Solano - are all platoon options/starters v. LH pitching that add emergency depth, if absolutely necessary, v. RH pitching. Solano isn’t an everyday DH on this club. If Larnach isn’t on the roster due to good health with other expected everyday starters, v. RH pitching, Kiriloff is at 1B - Gallo - Buxton - Kepler in OF - Gordon at DH………Larnach is the LH hitting DH if on the roster………I do see Buxton at DH for 50 games (30 plus in ‘22). When Buxton DH’s v. RH pitching Gordon plays CF. When Buxton rests v. RH pitching, Gordon plays CF. Not sure why Miranda would have had a role at DH and you say his arm issues may reduce that opportunity? Seems maybe the opposite would be true. Taylor & Buxton being in OF at same time doesn’t make sense since they are both all-star defenders in CF. Taylor starts in CF 40 games v. LH starters & Buxton is DH in those games. ……..(Gallo-Gordon-Kepler) OF v. RH starters for 40 games while Buxton DH’s 10 or so & rests the other 30 games. v. LH starter Gallo-Taylor-Kepler in OF - Infield is Jeffers C - Farmer 3B - CC SS - Solano 2B - Miranda 1B - Buxton DH Buxton - 50 games at DH Gordon/Larnach combo - 50 games at DH Miranda - 10 games at DH Gallo - 20 games at DH Polanco/Correa combo - 20 games Solano - 10 games That’s no AB’s at DH for Walner, Lewis, or Julien………gotta assume there will be an injury or three & things will change.
  13. JD-TWINS
    Guys get hurt playing sports - everyday somebody gets nicked. A batted ball off a pitchers leg is typically not a big deal. Farmer - Solano - Gordon have 2B covered w/o Polanco, if necessary. Kiriloff seems to be hitting live pitching which I think is the big potential deterrent from him being ready Opening Day. Unless something changes, it appears he’ll be ready. Let’s see how Kepler feels in a day or two…..Larnach is up before Walner but it’s probably neither of them. If Polanco can’t go they’ll roster Larnach for Opening Day. It’s not a wasted season quite yet!
  14. JD-TWINS
    Who should Durán pitch to……the Invisible Man?
  15. JD-TWINS
    If Lee & Lewis can play 2nd & 3rd and hit 20 HR each with similar output from CC, we’ll be pretty good! With Larnach & Kiriloff both on the cusp of everyday line-up guys along with Buxton & Walner, we have 20 HR power throughout the line-up, including DH going forward. Miranda is at this level of power as well! If Gordon gets 525 AB’s he projects to 38 doubles & 13 HR……gotta play v. RH starters. Julien is going to have to be really good to play regularly in ‘24. ‘24, fresh, 13 man everyday guys: Buxton - Correa - Lewis - Lee - Kiriloff - Larnach - Gordon - Vazquez - Jeffries - Farmer (under contract) - Walner - Miranda - Julien ……about $70M total for 13 position players. Solano - Gallo - Taylor - Polanco - Kepler (about $36M replaced by $3.8M) all gone regardless of success due to inexpensive talent push behind them. Don’t see room for Sobato. Rodriguez during the year possibly. Focus spending on extending &/or FA pitching. 6 RH hitters - 6 LH hitters - 1 both. At least 9 of them with 20 HR power. As far as additions to Top 5, I think Julien has a chance to get to 20 HR power because of his selectiveness and probability to see good pitches to hit……may not get nearly enough AB’s?
  16. JD-TWINS
    What position do we trade for, other than pitching at the deadline? Where are our everyday player holes? How many Mark Bellangers or Ernie Banks do we need? We have CC for 6 years and 4-5 SS prospects behind him. We have a couple 2B prospects. We have Kiriloff - Julien - Miranda at 1B. Gordon - Larnach - Buxton - Martin - Rodriguez Walner for young OF options, among others. We gotta be out of it and Gray pitching well for teams to be interested in him & Twins to be interested. I don’t see a scenario where Gray is pitching regularly and 2 other rookies that are now #7 & #8 in our starting pitching rotation are shoving Gray out the door. Anything is possible. Trading a good veteran pitcher for hopefully good prospect pitching is a risky thing.
  17. JD-TWINS
    Seems your comments are obvious! You don’t trade guys that got you into contention and nobody wants guys that aren’t performing. Pitchers - Catchers - Outfielders……playing well, we keep you. It seems odd to me that the discussions about moving veterans at the deadline in these forums are assumed to be like trading guys in a fantasy league. It’s not easy to make trades…..particularly for guys your team wants to trade! Teams that aren’t competitive trade assets to build up young/cheap players for their future. Teams that are in the mix trade young guys/prospects for players that may put them over the hump. We don’t need more prospects other than pitchers……..Personally, I see us being competitive in late July & our only potential need being a bullpen arm. We aren’t trading for everyday players in the middle of the season. We have a substantial pipeline of guys. Gallo will have to hit 40 HR’s for the Twins to risk giving him a QO. They’d be better off extending him 3 years at $16M a year….never thought I’d say that about Gallo but 40 HR’s is pretty high value. If he wants to leave - great! Nobody is paying Kenta $20M plus!!!! If he pitches well - which doesn’t mean he’s dominant - offer him a couple years at $10.5M/yr. Great depth guy if he’s healthy. If Gray has a good year he’s gone. QO him if he has ERA under 3.40 - double digit wins. He’ll need that to get someone to pursue him for multi-year deal. Mahle…..silly to QO him if he isn’t pitching well since he’ll take the $20M (overpaid) and use it as an audition year to get a FA deal for ‘25……If he does pitch well, he’s healthy……worth a 3 year $23/yr deal offered in July. Extending Mahle 3 yrs. and López 2 yrs. during the year this year makes great sense. Those 2 with Ryan & Paddack and a couple of our young guys & we’re good through ‘26.
  18. JD-TWINS
    “Suspect” or similar description of the Twins Left Handed hitting capabilities and how Kepler needs to help bail us out from that side of the plate, seems to be a misrepresentation. Kiriloff, if healthy, Polanco, Larnach, Gordon, Gallo………with Julien & Lee & Walner coming doesn’t suggest a void from left side………I do agree that Kepler could be a swing player in ‘22!! Lopez was disappointing & his history isn’t encouraging. Like Kepler, has talent, but only shown it in brief windows. Really, López has been relatively unimpressive for years other than ‘22 April - June. Minnesota beat him twice last year in July before trading for him. Good Stuff - hoping for better fastball command and better use of his head! Mahle has the pitches! I live in Cincinnati and the ballpark here being an excuse for giving up too many HR’s is an excuse. He gave up 3 dingers in his first game in Minneapolis. He gave up 2 in a row the other day in Spring Training. He’s terrible at staying ahead and pitching to contact to get guys out - throws too many pitches after ahead, trying to nibble. Walks guys - pitch count gets elevated early - gets complacent and grooves fastballs that leave the yard…….hope he gets coached up with the Twins!! Great upside!
  19. JD-TWINS
    Right on Santana - after their Closer got hurt at WBC Mets are looking for depth wherever they can find it - even Santana.
  20. JD-TWINS
    Lewis has had 2 ACL surgeries and is owed $750K at best for 3 years or so & then not much more (maybe $35-$45M total, best case) for 3 more years……..you don’t think Boras wouldn’t take his %, yesterday, on a $111 million deal??? That said, there’s no reason for the Twins to be what I think is irrational, and pay guys because of where they were drafted. Lewis has a dozen or so games in the Show with a probable bad knee going forward and no defined position on defense at this point. Lee has had great success, over 20 odd games in AA. Don’t even understand considering the conversation. I really like both of these guys and expect great things from both - big pieces of our team’s future!!! Writing checks for $100M plus prior to any MLB success and frankly, 2 years sooner than needed for “an early contract”, just doesn’t add up to good management. Both guys have to be starters at some position on the Big Team for a season to be considering long term deals. We just traded a guy with bad knees that played for 4 years and had a career BA of .314. One batting title. There were 11 other guys in the game that hit over .290 in ‘22. Do we think Royce Lewis is going to be markedly better than Arraez? Think about it….I get Lewis may not be damaged after his latest surgery but he certainly has the genes to suffer another injury. Also, Lewis has more power, more athleticism. Athleticism alone doesn’t put the ball in play at a .314 clip……..I know he hit .307 or whatever when up for a dozen games …….Arraez hit .365 until the end of July. Just saying we shouldn’t be quite so enamored with guys that are still all “potential based”. After this year we may be talking about how big of a star Miranda is or Nick Gordon or some pitcher. Can’t blow up our economic future flexibility by following the moves of a franchise like the D-Backs.
  21. JD-TWINS
    Don’t understand the concern? If Kiriloff was 100%, Miranda was going to play 25% of the starts there v. LH pitching. That will remain the same. Gallo came up as a 3rd baseman - has played 1B, not much & not for a few years - great athlete - 6’5”…….if Arraez made an impromptu everyday showing last year at 1B, there’s no reason to think that Gallo is going to be a deficiency at 1B.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Gloom & doom…… Buxton’s hurt - Kiriloff is done - Polanco’s hurt. Sure it could happen, not likely for all 3 though. My slant……. Gallo is going to play & we needed to get used to this the day after his signing. Whether it’s in LF or 1B has no bearing on his OPS+. He’s a starter 125 games plus. Kepler is a known as well - hoping for better results - pencil him in right 115 games plus w/o a deadline trade, that is unlikely! Correa SS - Solano 2B - Farmer 3B - Miranda 1B - Taylor CF - Buxton DH - Gallo LF - Jeffers C - Larnach LF v. LH pitching is not weak. Correa SS - Gallo 1B - Miranda 3B - Gordon CF - Larnach LF - Polanco 2B - Kepler RF - Vazquez C - Larnach DH v. RH pitching is not weak. Can’t take intended platoon players stats & generalize their weaknesses into the plan. We signed older guys for depth and to be able to play to everyone’s strengths. Julien is an option 45-60 days into the season if Kiriloff can’t play.
  23. JD-TWINS
    My opinion……Gallo was picked up for Power in the line-up or due to lack of, with proven players. His OF prowess was/is a bonus - it was a depth move, particularly due to his often discussed positional flexibility. Last year’s starting LF & next year’s starting LF is Nick Gordon, with Larnach trending. Using Gallo at 1B because that’s where he best fits in April/May from a depth standpoint is the best move. Guys can’t play, gotta make adjustments. He doesn’t weaken 1B at all defensively.
  24. JD-TWINS
    Clearly! Gallo at 1B v. RH pitching to start year Larnach - Gordon - Kepler v. RH pitching 40 games……..with Buxton at DH or resting….he starts 80 games v. RH pitching in CF Taylor in CF v. LH pitching Miranda at 1B v. LH pitching Solano at 2B v. LH pitching Farmer at 3B v. LH pitching Julien up in June if Kiriloff washes out.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Max will get a good long look in ‘23………My assumption is Gallo may start in RF when we’re up against LH pitching. Kepler gets opportunity to shine against RH pitching. Hoping he stays healthy so we get a clear look at what he can do. A bit of power would really help….somewhere around 20HR or at least 30 doubles. Gotta produce some runs playing RF.
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