JD-TWINS

WHY? Astros seemed to be OK without CC. Pitching should be our emphasis! Plenty of relievers to sign to strengthen BP!! Why were Astros not stressed about letting CC go? Capable rookie replacement behind him…………..LEWIS - LEE are trailing Farmer later this year or ‘24 for sure. Continue to try & focus on Pitching depth & talent. Why CC & not pitching?

Kepler has to be traded. Can’t sign Gallo with 3-4 other LH hitting corner outfielders behind him (Gordon - Walner - Kirilof - Larnach) & then keep Kepler as well. Kepler - Celestino - Pagan together, maybe with a prospect if needed, for an arm is a great way to clarify our outfield options. McCutchen may not mash LH pitching anymore but I’ll take his availability, his capabilities, & his leadership. I like him over Garlick. He could also displace Walner early in the year and then by July we decide if Garlick or McCutchen is our better option. He’s definitely worth the few million $ that we won’t be paying Kepler nor the FA pitchers we haven’t signed!

Agreed - I’ve stated that there is no logic behind Nick Gordon not being our everyday LF. He can be part of the platoon/rest help for Polanco (15 games or so) as well as the primary platoon/rest for Buxton (35 games or so). If he rests 20 games, that leaves 92 games in LF. Assuming Kepler is gone! Polanco is solid at 2nd. His ‘22 season was a down year from a guy who averages 20 plus HR’s and hits .270. If he can get back to “average Jorge” everyone will be happy. Gordon can give us 15 games at 2nd & Arraez another 15 games. If we get another 5-10 games from some youth guy (Lewis - Lee?) in August/September, Polanco should have plenty of rest. Tangent thoughts on rest: Arraez at 2B for 15 games - at 1B for 80 games - at 3B for 10 games (no other options) - at DH for 25 games…….he should be well rested at least w/o unforeseen stress. Kirilof at 1B for 65 games……LF maybe 20 games to maintain competency………DH 25 games. Larnach in LF for 15 games to maintain competency……….primary DH for 50 games……25 games in RF. Garlick (or Andrew McCutchen preferably) in LF for 40 games. DH for 20 games. Buxton in CF 100 games……….DH for 25 games. Gotta stay healthy! …….If he can’t play 100 games in CF, we need to seriously consider moving him to LF in ‘24 & DH him 60 games/year going forward to protect his legs. Gallo plays RF most of the time unless he washes out due to no production. Walner (McCutchen??) waiting in the wings. Gallo in RF for 85 games and in CF for 25 games. Vazquez 10 games at DH………Everyday Catcher for 110 games………Jeffers for 50 games at Catcher & 5 games at DH. Farmer at SS for 145 games & we’re scrambling to get him a day off in the first half of the year!! Unresolved, unless we let Gordon play 10 less games in LF and roll with him at SS reserve in 1st half for 10 games. Will need Lewis or Lee for 2nd half to spell Miranda & Farmer during the dog days. Miranda at 3B for 135 games and maybe an additional handful at DH &/or 1B? Generally, a path through the year here. Walner is odd man out for playing time to start the year. As Lee or Lewis becomes available mid-summer Walner (or worst performing LH bat) will get sent down. Andrew McCutchen instead of, or as another option along side of, Garlick could be a really nice signing!

Thanks again for putting the list together for all to tear apart: Asset Value is a difficult term, & to not have a bunch of subjectivity rolled into each choice, is nearly impossible. Most needed - best hitter - health - age/experience - potential - power - defense are all variables along with another 4-5 attributes I’m not listing. IMO comments: - Vázquez should be there via some metric or point of view. - A healthy Mahle could be a solid extension candidate or a trade piece later this summer. - I’ve beaten to death that Arraez should be in Top 4. - Last, how do we have 2 SS in the system that are viewed as guys in our Top 5 of assets in the organization & still have a large % of fandom in these posts think “we need a SS” - “we’re desperate for a SS”. Don’t get it???? Farmer is fine until somebody is ready…..even if not until ‘24.

I live in Cincinnati - Farmer is a MLB shortstop!! He’s middle of the pack but he can play SS nearly every day for the 2 years he has left on deal, if needed………I agree, Lewis playing about 3-4 weeks total between St. Paul & Mpls last year doesn’t mean he’s going to excel after a 2nd ACL surgery this year…..at least not immediately! Fantasy!! Hoping by end of July he’s ready at some level worth trying with big club. I like the idea of signing McCutchen……solid D and great doubles guy vs. LH pitching. He displaces Garlick (maybe Walner) in my opinion. We’d be a better club. Better guy on the bench - great energy & a player!! Understood he may have 2 years max left in the tank. Platoon guy and a great RH experienced bat as PH from the bench in situations as well! VS. LH pitching: Buxton - McCutchen - Miranda - Vázquez (DH) - Arraez - Polanco - Farmer - Jeffers - Walner (maybe Garlick is kept & Walner is in St. Paul getting to play every day……. for a few months so we can classify what we think of Gallo’s performance?) Garlick in left - McCutchen in right - Buxton in CF vs. LH pitching. McCutchen adds team speed - no real loss in power from Garlick - better & more flexible defensive options - great bench/locker room presence!!! Assuming he may force us to spend an extra $5 - $8 million over Garlick…..very worthwhile. McCutchen makes more sense than breaking Spring Training with Walner - Gallo - Kirilof - Larnach - Gordon as our corner outfield options & all being LH batters!

VS. Left handed pitching : Buxton - Polanco - Miranda - Garlick (LF)- Arraez - Vázquez (DH) - Farmer - Jeffers - Walner (RF) Kirilof - Gordon - Larnach - Gallo Another solid line-up if we can stay healthy. Somebody from the Larnach - Kirilof - Walner - Gallo - Garlick group will need to be displaced by Lewis mid-July. Better IF utility option guy & a probable needed RH bar by mid year. Garlick, if productive, stays for RH options………Gallo has 12-15 HR’s by mid-July or he’s trade bait - maybe DFA’d?

Exactly my point……if oft injured Polanco hit .316 he’d have had an amazing season. If somehow Kepler hit 8HR’s but hit .316 he’d be up for an extension. If somehow Buxton hit half the HR’s he hit last year but had a .316 avg. it would be a great adjustment to his approach. .314 Average over FOUR years. .316 doesn’t seem to be an outlier. I get all 3 of these guys have a defensive advantage over Louis!! Given. His “knee problems” seem to be less of an issue than any of these other 3 guys health issues though, as he was in 144 games last year. 3 more homers increase per year for 2 years & maybe 20 points less BA due to a mild change in approach. Is he capable of this? This leaves him at .296 BA with 14 homers in 2024. We HOPE Alex Kirilof could do this!! Again, RBI often are driven by where you are in the line-up. Gary Sanchez - Ryan Jeffers - Garlick - Cave - Celestino weren’t exactly filling up the bases last year prior to Louis coming to bat. He’s a 75 RBI guy minimum batting 3rd or 5th. Line-up spot change is something to consider with his lack of speed. Great protection for anyone in our line-up! Buxton - Polanco - Larnach - Miranda - Arraez - Vázquez - Gordon - Farmer - Gallo………health is an issue but with some fortune, this line-up is competitive. Kirilof - Walner - Garlick - Jeffers……early in the year, Gordon & Arraez handle the infield utility action.

Had to look up Louis stats: 121 games in ‘21 (w/o a position) 144 games in ‘22 .316 batting champ in ‘22 .314 (not.313 earlier referenced) BA over 4 MLB seasons 8 HR’s in ‘22 Do we think he has the POTENTIAL to hit a mere .305 (.340 OBP) & 12 HR’s in ‘23??? How many RBI does he rack up if he doesn’t bat 1 or 2 in the line-up……70-75?? I’ll take the bet on the last statement! Trade him? 10th ranked asset??? Eye test should suffice in this case - stats take him over the top. 4 successful years not just 1. Gotta be in our Top 4 assets!

Don’t get how Arraez was #11 going into ‘22 & played probably (?) more games than anyone else last year……..maybe Gordon played more? And he came into ‘23 as #10 after winning the batting title. Many say he had a career year batting .316 in ‘22 & we should consider trading him at high value, before his knees crumble, but his average over 4 MLB seasons is .313 & I assume he started at least 140 games last year as most of the other regulars dropped around him. Ober needs to be available at some point for more than 3-4 consecutive starts to warrant #6 regardless of how many years of control we may have. Thanks for the List & fueling the debate!!

Miranda only up from late May ‘22 through September……….pace of 23HR’s in a full season. Looking forward to him climbing the asset list in ‘23!!

Trading a veteran starter that went 8-5 with a 3.08 ERA & another guy we’re forced to trade “somewhere” due to the Gallo signing for a back-up SS is senseless. Why trade arguably our best starter? Kepler & López, OK. Farmer is a middle of the pack MLB defender that will hit .255 & 14HR’s. Why is everyone panicked about our SS with 2-3 guys in Farm System on the way? We won 2 World Series with Greg Gagne. Farmer is more than adequate placeholder. You rant about signing injured/washed pitchers but you suggest obtaining Chris Sale as a big move. …..huh?????

Begged for Bassitt - then Eovaldi - thought Kluber could be justified - Wacha is as deep as we can go……….still need to go there though & start year with Maeda in the PEN. PLEASE SIGN Fulmer or Chafin or Britton to ensure BP depth! PLEASE!

Don’t get me started on Eovaldi………!!! 2 years for $34 million - almost free in the shade of the Correa offer & when contrasted with the Gallo signing!

Agreed, letting Kepler go for little or nothing makes no sense. Can’t realistically think playing Kepler every day instead of Gordon every day in our outfield makes good sense offensively. Signing of Gallo (not thrilled about) means Kepler has to go - no question. I’d prefer to keep Kepler & have never heard of the Gallo signing!! Not real. Celestino - Walner - Kepler - Sands - Winder - Pagan - López - Jeffers are all pieces we can put together for pitching or a RH bat or both. I’d like to see Walner develop into a masher in MN - love to see Jeffers hit .245 & improve defensively in MN - Seeing any of these 4 pitchers become effective would be great in MN……….can’t all happen & probably none of it happens with guys in front of them. Please use multiple trade pieces together so the return really has value!!!

Gallo is our new RF. Pretty sure Gordon starts 100 games in LF. Another 30 in CF. Larnach will play some LF & will DH. Kirilof some LF but more at 1B & some DH. Walner may beat out Gallo by August. Kepler - Pagan - López for a starter would be super!!

Wacha is as low as we can go in FA for a starter! I still feel a veteran starter from Spring Training that can get Maeda into a bridge roll out of the pen for first 2-3 months of ‘23 is beneficial. The odds of all of our starters being healthy are slim & depth (with experience) is going to be helpful vs. leaning on guys with 1-4 starts in MLB. We can ease Varland & others into the staff, if desired, through July. 6 starters may work and therefore allowing guys to work longer into games? In this case I’d use Varland or best young choice out of Spring Training, along with Wacha, and again have Maeda in the Pen. Staff: Ober - Gray - Ryan - Wacha (sign) - Mahle - Varland…………an awfully lot of RH 92-95MPH guys!!!! Fulmer (sign) - Moran - Maeda - Thielbar - Megill - Jax - Duran If we don’t move on Wacha, sign a 2nd RP from Free Agency Mkt.

Kepler will be traded at some point before March. Could not have signed Gallo with the intent of keeping Kepler. Larnach plays LF when Gordon is in Center - maybe 35 games. Larnach can play left when Gordon is forced into playing 2B when Polanco is inevitably unable to play due to his bad knees - maybe 20 games. Larnach as DH 70 games. I agree that Gordon has been ruled out of SS by the organization but if he’s our 3rd or 4th best returning batter from ‘22 he needs to play! That makes him our LF around 100 starts.

I’m not sure how to help Pagán nor López since I honestly believe their issues are between the ears. They both have good to exceptional stuff for their roles……they lack consistent command & I don’t know that is linked to mechanics. Attention span, focus, & intestinal fortitude is where I think these two are lacking. Megill is the guy, IMO, that has a real upside in the near-term. He has plus curveball & plus fastball at 98MPH. His command isn’t great but if it were he wouldn’t be hittable now. Guys sit on one pitch and often relentlessly foul it off to get deep in counts. With two pitches to draw on Megill becomes a lesser foe than his stuff would denote! He needs a 3rd pitch……I get it’s easy to say & not as easy to execute. With a change-up OR a cutter he could throw maybe 15% of the time, he’d allow his other 2 pitches some defense and would have a 3rd speed. The 3rd pitch wouldn’t need to be in zone a lot, just a “show pitch” for the most part. He’s got 2 plus pitches & he’s our 7th/8th option in the pen ………need to coach him up!

Don’t see room for Celestino on the roster in ‘23. His almost certainty to put the ball in play from the right 1/3 of the field to RF foul line is an issue. That said, his ability to provide power seems suspect going forward. If he needs more development, it gives Gordon another year to develop further as back-up to Buxton in CF. Assuming others develop to expectations, Larnach - Kirilof - Gordon - Walner - Buxton taking up our 5 outfield spots going forward in ‘24, it doesn’t seem there is a spot for Celestino in our plans forward.m. Obviously, trades of one of the LH guys could change things. This year, if healthy, he seems blocked by Garlick as well.

All good…. don’t want to detract because I saw Aguilera go from 4th-5th starter for the Mets to lockdown closer for TWINS. However, John Smoltz was special as a starter that had success in the Pen, while being innings protected, for 2-3 years is my recollection.

Tough to justify Gallo for sure……particularly since we did nothing to strengthen the Pitching Staff. Was really pissed when it was announced!! However, I was upbeat that Kepler may bounce back so I guess have to give Gallo benefit of the doubt. If he starts 130 games, bats 9th, hits .215, & hits 25 HR’s we’ll live with that. I guess FO was just tired of Max’s lack of punch and recent lack of availability. They chose Gallo at .030 points lower BA and 15 more homers??. HAVE to assume FO is working on moving Kepler with another piece or two for a starter. I saw someone picking at Gallo’s health in another comment,…….he was under 100 games in 2019 but played 57 in 2020 when league total was around 65 games played. Fine in ‘21 & ‘22. Seems as or more reliable than Max. “Maybe” is all we got with Gallo……and about 8 other guys?.

Have only seen a couple commenters put Gordon in LF as the everyday starter for ‘23. After last season, can’t imagine that not being the case. He can still play 20 games at second to help spell Polanco & another 30 games in CF to help get Buxton through the season. That leaves him 95 games in LF unless there’s some significant regression……..That leaves 40 - 50 starts for Larnach…..20 or so starts for Garlick in LF. Jax & Duran are Pen anchors! I’d like to see López moved along with Kepler and a prospect to land a depth starter. Sign Fulmer or Hand or maybe Chafin to bolster Pen. Concerned about expecting too much from a guy coming off his 2nd ACL & another 10-12 months away from the live games. Farmer will suffice at SS & if Lewis can contribute in late ‘23 that’s great. Miranda playing average defense at 3rd with 20 dingers & .265 average and we should all be ecstatic. Has the basis of a “professional hitter.” Would be nice to get somebody behind him for a little protection in the line-up! (not Kepler - Celestino - etc.) An aside, Polanco, and his production this year seems to be a big key for our offense. With Correa & Kepler gone we need a Vet to come through and post numbers that meet expectations. Line-up: Arraez1B - BuxtonCF - LarnachDH - Miranda3B - Polanco2B - VazquezC - GordonLF - FarmerSS - GalloRF Kirilof-Garlick-Jeffers-Walner ……..Kirilof, Gordon & Arraez serve as Infield depth with a number of guys able to DH.

What do you guys think of Megill? I get he’s relegated to Pen, fine, but it seems he has two Plus pitches with his 98MPH & curveball. He’s similar to Duran w/o a 3rd pitch. Seems to me he’d be dominant by adding a 3rd pitch. To me, a cutter would be easiest to work on & master but a change-up would be equally effective. I also get one doesn’t just add a 3rd pitch w/o issues. He just seems to have such good stuff that a 3rd pitch used 15% of the time would not allow or minimize hitters ability to sit on one pitch. His command could be better but nobody’s perfect. Am hoping new pitching coach - coaching staff can get him developed!!! Thoughts on what others see with Megill?

First & foremost we need to compete, like 90% of the other teams in MLB……”giving the kids a shot” is what AAA is all about. Sorry, keep reading this & want us to focus on winning. Obviously, the Show needs to be experienced at some point but making trades with the batting Champ - (4 year career .313 BA) so some kids get a chance, makes no sense. Kepler is going to be traded. Who we can wrap up with him is for debate. Larnach is high end prospect and should command value…..I agree we need more pitching if available. Can’t trade the, arguably, only consistent bat in the line-up. No problem with Kepler - even Larnach - somebody else on the prospect side being lumped together for an arm. Seems Marlins already traded in starter…..not sure how many arms they have to move? Pitching wins games - agreed!!

I understand his compensation is set up that way. If his agreement reads that way it, seems (he has to start if healthy enough to start) gray on who makes the determination of health? Not trying to slight him on $ (if healthy, I would re-work $ if Team beneficial from Pen) - if he can help more & ease back after surgery for 10-12 weeks out of the Pen it seems beneficial for both parties! If he’s locked in as a starter not sure why there’s been any talk about signing FA pitching the last 2 months?