JD-TWINS

I love these Metrics for relievers! The success % is subjective but I think 80% would denote “good”…….betwee 74-79% adequate. Below 74%, we need to probably move on. COMMAND is the pitching key and stuff (velocity & spin rate) don’t override command. Pagan has good stuff…..his new pitch at 81mph & more vertical tilt may be his savior? I just have no patience left nor potential confidence when strike outs at 38% clip are overshadowed by HR’s at TOO HIGH % clip. Just doesn’t seem to have a clue OR the necessary command! Would rather spend time developing a cutter or chang-up with Megill and giving him another year at $700K! With the 3 batter minimum for relievers, the% rate of success is even more important. Can’t fool the numbers (%) by just facing one batter per appearance.

He’s essentially an offensive even trade with Urshella but a better option at short…….plus the $3.5 million saved that hopefully we spend on the staff. He is a bridge to Lewis or he’s there all year…….can play 3rd as well. At 32, getting out of Cincinnati & having a chance to be in playoffs may produce a spark as well! I live here & watching the Reds is tough, can’t imagine playing everyday as a reasonably talented professional. I liked Urshella but every $1.5-3.5 million we can save that can be used for a front end starter or relief depth is worth a shot!! Hopefully, there’s a plan.

Gray’s complaints about how he was used are empty & ridiculous. He’s been hurt part of nearly every year for 8 years. Hip along with various arm issues make him the poster child for limited innings. He’s got to hear that with whatever club he’s with, not just pitching for Rocco! I live & watched in Cincinnati, same with TWINS, 7-10 weeks pitching then 2-3 weeks on IL. That said, I like him - his competitive streak - his stuff!! I think offering $45 million for 3 years would be a nice offer for him & reasonable for the Twins. He would be taking on great risk not to extend prior to this year at that $ level.

Not just for weitz41 but for all the doubters: Gordon played CF when Buxton couldn’t play during first half and played LF almost every other day. Why is he not a starter based on his offense in 2022? His offense matches Rosario’s less 8-10 homers. Young, can run, SS arm…….don’t understand why he’s not penciled in for LF everyday & occasionally in CF or 2B? Hit .270 last season with 40 double potential! My opinion, just because you can play multiple positions shouldn’t relegate you to playing 3 times a week at varying spots. If Larnach/Kirriloff can hit with some pop & hit .275 or better then carve a spot in right or left and move Gordon around where/when needed. Don’t see the benefit in not continuing the opportunity for Gordon from the jump in 2023 based on real 2022 results!!

PITCHING COACH, with skills is key! If guys could be “fixed” there would be no pitchers struggling with good stuff - not real to fix guys. Guys fix themselves or they wash out. Can’t fix command in the zone with coaching - it’s execution. Koufax was mediocre to bad for six years & then dominant for 5-6 yrs by finding the right release point that gave him some control - then increased confidence, and so on. Good coach can help tweak - maybe work on a guy’s head a bit? Lopez could be an innings eater in 5th-7th with a 3.5 ERA, worst case……in my opinion. He threw in 44 games prior to All-Star break last year with 19 saves. With that many appearances (success) maybe he can only get 3 outs or less per outing? Something changed - I think it’s between his ears - hopefully a pitching coach can sort it out!!

Boxberger sounds like a low value add with a 25% meltdown rate. We can get that success rate with a rookie or some other $750,000 guy. Moore is old and, as mentioned, we probably don’t need another lefty at this point. Montero could be a nice experienced arm to set-up for Duran! $6 million/year for 2 years. Number of saves in 2022 along with other success has to be weighed with his attachment to 106 win team - gotta have opportunities to get these stats!!! NEED a pitching coach with track record!! Can somebody work with Trevor Megill to develop either a cutter or a change-up?? WAY too good of stuff for the results seen to date! Plus curveball & plus fastball with no other options and not enough fastball command. Needs to be coached up and he could be as effective as Duran! We need to add a top end reliever…….Trevor May nor Taylor Roger’s fit that role.

“……..if you want to be taken seriously” This is the key ending statement of the article. We CAN DO a bunch of differing things. If we are serious, we need a front end starter, period! Aces are few & far between & not necessarily perfect going forward but at least we’ll be trying. Correa has to be freed, according to his contract. Take these $ and use on front end starter & solid back end guy ($35 million goes a long way for filling these 2 spots!!).

This really points out where $ should be spent! Urshella is more valuable due to productivity & availability vs. Polanco &/or Keppler. One of those guys needs to go…….if Polanco goes, Arraez to 2nd & Gordon can spell him there. Miranda to 1st & Urshella at 3rd………..If Keppler, Gordon is in left - Buxton - Larnach in OF. Moving both, while moving on from Correa allows $ for right handed hitting OF or DH ($14M) Reliever ($10M), & front end Starter ($24M)……..extend Gray or Mahle in June based on each other’s start. Maeda to the pen for max value!! Kirriloff & Miranda trade off with Arraez & Buxton in the DH slot.” The $ spent above is a savings of $6-$8million from Correa - Polanco - Keppler cost at about $52 million. Seems like a contender!!

AGREED. Can’t believe how many people in these forums think if our starters pitched 2/3 of an inning more per game we’d still be in the playoffs. Gray, Mahle, Archer, Bundy all have had arm problems plus other issues with their bodies. Period. Ryan was a rookie…..no rookie throws excessive innings, at least not since the 90’s. There are maybe 12 guys in MLB that could be considered Aces…..Houston has 2…….3 or 4 are hurt and not actively pitching much in ‘22. We just need stable guys that can throw 4-7 innings and have us within a run or ahead when they leave. Expecting Rodon (injury risk) to be Bob Gibson for 3-5 years is fantasy. I’m all for adding “front line starter” but there are no Verlander’s (Aces) floating around without the attention of at least 20 other teams!!! As an aside, there is no combination of prospects that are too costly for Shohei Ohtani…….”front end starter” with 2.66 ERA AND he hit 34 dingers and hit .276. He’s 2 really good players in one. Spending prospects to get “2 highly effective contributors” is a wonderful deal if any organization can pull it off!! ……….he’s better offensively than Carlos Correa AND he had a 2.66 ERA!!! $44 million per year for 5 years is a deal!…..maybe 7 years?

I like it!! Perfect fit but not sure about the pieces being moved? I think if we target a guy like this we need to sign him up for an additional 3 years immediately to get the trade value right. Also, I think we need to part with one of our left-handed batting outfielders to sweeten the pot for trade partner. Keep Gordon. One of those other 4 guys needs to be offered. Kepler probably doesn’t move the needle. Why: Woodruff for 5 years or Simeon Woods-Richardson’s potential??? Why: They do it to get a reasonable arm into their fold AND high end left handed bat with CONTROL of both for years.

Agreed, moving Keppler or Polanco might help spending if Correa stays. Assuming Correa leaves, no immediate trades needed & we go get a “top end guy” & a solid reliever. As a low risk option, how about converting Plesac from Cleveland into a reliever for $6 million. He’s a competitor that has 2 plus pitches & wouldn’t mind throwing 55-60 times per year. I think his attitude has gotten him released from Guardians? Need better “stuff” in our bullpen - obvious when watching good playoff teams!

Correa stays for $35 million for 8 years. Need Closer to compliment Duran for $9 million. Arraez to $5.5million might be rich? Urshella arbitration eligible to $10.5 million gotta move him to afford Correa and Closer upgrade. Putting Maeda into the bullpen gets the most out of him & his $9 million. He’s a good high leverage guy in later innings if needed and a potential bridge guy a couple times per week from starter to pen. Dodgers used him in spots for years. Kepler is forced to earn his daily playing time in front of back up guys. He is there for stability in Center if needed along with Gordon. Gordon fills at 2nd as well. Celestino doesn’t fit our needs if roster is just a little more healthy! Right handed batting outfielder is a maybe need? Once Lewis is back, if they have Correa, it might be Lewis adding OF depth as well as helping at 3rd & 2nd! If we can get Correa back and Closer type I’m suggesting and we’re reasonably healthy, this team is deep & solid!!! Buxton - Correa connection is a special dynamic in the line-up. Really stirs confidence with rest of the guys! C: Ryan Jeffers ($.700M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($5.5M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Miranda ($.700M) SS: C. Correa ($35.00M) LF: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($8.50M) DH: Trevor Larnach ($0.70M) 4th OF: Kyle Garlick ($0.70M) Utility: Alex Kiriloff ($0.70M) Utility: Royce Lewis ($0.70M) Backup C: Ryan Jeffers ($.700M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Lou Varland ($.700M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Lefty Moran ($.700M) RP: Unidentified Closer ($8.00M) RP: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) Payroll is 11.21% under budget

Money spent on Catcher offense, assuming Correa leaves., #1 starter & Closer to compliment Duran. This is $40,000,000 of over baseline $. Arraez to $5.5million might be rich? Urshella arbitration eligible to $10.5 million. Putting Maeda into the bullpen gets the most out of him & his $9million. He’s a good high leverage guy later innings if needed and a potential bridge guy a couple times per week from starter to pen. Dodgers used him in spots for years. Kepler is forced to earn his daily playing time in front of back up guys. He is there for stability in Center if needed along with Gordon. Celestino doesn’t fit our needs if roster is just a little more healthy! Right handed batting outfielder is a maybe need? Once Lewis is back, if they have a SS, it might be Lewis adding OF depth? If we can get the 3 guys I’m suggesting and we’re reasonably healthy, this team is deep & solid!!! C: Wilson Contreras ($14.0M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($5.5M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Gio Urshela ($10.5M) SS: Farm guy/Royce Lewis ($0.700M) LF: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($8.50M) DH: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) 4th OF: Kyle Garlick ($0.70M) Utility: Alex Kiriloff ($0.70M) Utility: Trevor Larnach ($0.70M) Backup C: Ryan Jeffers ($.700M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Unidentified #1 starter ($18.00M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Lefty Moran ($.700M) RP: Unidentified Closer ($8.00M) RP: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) Payroll is 6.86% under budget

Celestinos is the organization’s 6th or 7th outfielder & we only carry 5 on the Big Club. Kepler or Gordon will play center when Buxton DH’s or sits. Larnach - Kiriloff are definitely better options than Celestino. If we have a SS when Lewis is ready he’ll be the next right handed hitting outfielder. Correa leaves & we spend $22 million on NEEDED front end starter and another $10 - $13 million on a real CLOSER (not Lopez!) to help keep Duran fresh and eliminate (within reason) dropping games in inning 8 & 9. Both pitching solutions are easier said than done but the $ should be available! Contreraz at Catcher would be a noticeable upgrade offensively and worth a look!

Not sure why this wouldn’t work - Urshella at 3B 80% of time……Miranda 20%…….Miranda DH 30% of the time & 1B 30%……..Arraez 20% at 2B & 1B 50% & DH 25%………Kiriloff DH 20% & 1B 20% & 40% LF. Arraez needs days off (DH) for his legs. Same with Polanco, so Arraez plays some 2nd along with Gordon. Arraez was hurting in 2nd half and had hit .360 in first half so his average being down when DH in 2nd half at bats has a little more behind the reasoning than just not hitting at DH. Polanco plays 2B 7 of 10 games and DH’s 1 or 2 times every 10 games. Buxton will need to DH at times as well! Right handed hitting outfielder - maybe R. Lewis? That along with pitching is our need! Kepler, Walner, Larnach, Gordon, & Kiriloff have the corner OF & CF covered when facing RH pitching………need a right handed bat!!!

Problem is he’s had 2 ACL injuries and expecting him to hold up at SS for any length of time is blue sky…….may happen, but not much certainty there. If they can sign a SS they’ll fit Lewis in at 2nd, 3rd or OF going forward. Polanco may be washed? Only makes sense to pay Urshella one more year. Need a right handed batting outfielder……Lewis fits all 3. Sure, try him at short but sign one if can make a solid deal.

Can’t win with Top Players injured: Ober, Paddock, Varland, Mahle, Gray, Ryan with Maeda & Winder as Long Relievers……Jax, Lopez, Thielbar, Moran, & Duran………assume Correa leaves………we displace one of our starters with a free agent front end guy at $20 million & get some solid depth in bullpen for $10 million and displace a reliever. With a couple more potential arms from our system we should be able to put together a very reasonable staff opening day. Buxton plays 115 games, Arraez moves to 1st everyday, Lewis comes back by July 4 and bats .260 for balance of the year. Kiriloff or Larnach are healthy…..Miranda DH or 3rd & Urshella against lefties. Offense could use a right handed bat. All seems realistic with some breaks with player health. We’re top 4 - 6 teams in AL in 2023!!

Arraez has now played in parts or most of 4 seasons and he’s a .314 career hitter. Won title this year at .316…….my point is there’s more of the same to come. I don’t understand how batting average is not a very important stat anymore in baseball? If a batter gets a hit 32 out of 100 at bats vs. 24 out of 100 at bats the Team’s scoring opportunities have to be significantly higher!!! Where do we play him in 2023? Kiriloff - Miranda - Urshella - Arraez - Polanco. So he leads the league in average & has to play 2-3 defensive positions & DH. Plays when banged up! Need him in line-up 150 games per year going forward!! I like Polanco’s potential POP & his defense at 2nd & his demeanor & he’s a switch hitter! May need to move him to split 2nd base between Arraez & Gordon. Need youthful energy & offense throughout the line-up!

Great plan!! ……I was going to suggest, if Correa leaves, we trade Urshella straight up for Red’s SS Farmer. Similar bat & we will need a SS. I like committing to Urshella though and trying to stretch to June/July with someone else at short until Lewis is strong enough to play every day. Urshella is consistency we need - not flashy - but solid.

I agree that Baldelli is somewhat robotic and that the organization smoothing over things continually drains all involved of emotion needed for success!! The move with Ryan after 7 innings was the right move for the TEAM……you needed him ready for his next start in a tight race…….he came back with 3 hits spread over 7 2/3 this weekend. That’s a success. Can’t complain about that! Play to WIN THE GAME not excite the fan base by seeing if Ryan can throw a no-hitter.

I like this outfield mix as well but don’t know if there’s room to roster Celistino? After this year, one would assume Buxton is back and manages to play 100 games in Center in 2023 with Gordon starting the other 62. Gordon’s earned another 40 starts in left & a dozen between 2nd & SS when needed. A “utility guy” that can play 5 positions, start 120 games and can run and hit .275 is a real find. Larnach can play left field…..Kiriloff can play LF & be our 3rd choice at 1B. In my opinion, watching Celistino never hit the ball to left field & watching him run the bases is all we need to see that proves the only way he’s playing is because Gordon’s forced to play 2nd & Keppler can’t go to CF due to his injury. Celistino is our 4th option in CF. As much as I love his defense, Cave is the 7th-8th outfielder, behind Celistino & Garlick if all guys are healthy. Need to trade, maybe not until July, Cave, along with either Larnach or Kiriloff or Keppler. Way too many left handed batters with Gordon already in the mix. I see Arraez & Miranda filling the 1st base DH rolls for a number of years to come. No room there for Kiriloff.

14-7 (3 of 5 in Cleveland) rest of the year gets us into a possible Tie (85 wins) for the division. We are starting back-ups at 5 positions (whole outfield, 2B, & catcher)…….gonna be tough but have a shot!! Arraez has to play (leg problem) - can’t drop another key guy! More interesting & fun than 2021! I just checked Guardian’s schedule and unless there’s a mistake, they finish with 6 straight home games vs. the Royals. Tough to overcome that.

The overview of more frustration this year is accurate. MUCH rather be in contention & frustrated with injuries - move on from problems, (J. Smith - T. Duffey - E. Pagan eventually) - still have a 10% chance if we go 14 - 7 down the stretch…….than to be out of it by May 15! To not be competitive over a 6 month season is torture if you’re a fan in my opinion……..I live in Cincinnati & see it & hear about it daily.

Agreed on the pitching!! (Varland another #4-#5 in his rookie year of ‘23) I think getting a #2 is $ realistic. Need another stud with Duran in bullpen as well!

Today a win is needed & then 3 of 5 in Cleveland as well. Both doable. That gets us to 1.5 back. A chance, but the reality has dropped to maybe 33%?