JD-TWINS

Buxton - Miranda are the RH hitting DH candidates against Lefty pitching. CC will probably get 10 games at DH throughout the year. Garlick still has a chance to make the Roster. With a little bit of success Garlick may get some DH opportunities against LH starters

Larnach - Gallo would seem to be the obvious LH batting DH candidates against a Righty. If Kepler is traded, then Gallo is in right. Larnach is at DH. Kirilof at 1B. If he’s not able to play - Gallo may be at 1st regularly. Again, Larnach is the DH. I still really think the F.O. is committed to trading Kepler with some others around him. I believe the F.O./organization will be committed to Nick Gordon as an outfielder. He starts in LF in our “A Line-up” & plays a bunch of CF against RH pitching Rocco wants Buxton to have no part of………when Buxton rests. Also, he sees action in CF when Buxton DH’s.

With the “huge promise” that Larnach has & with the signing of Gallo, the only way for Kepler to play is for Gordon to sit. Don’t know what the metrics say about Gordon? I do know he gained 25lb from January to June & he played about 100 games in the outfield last year. He was solid in LF for 65 games & in CF for about 35 games. My assumption for this year was he would play another 15 games at each position and hit at the level he did in ‘22. In 405 AB’s he had 28 doubles & 9 HR & had a .272 BA. With another 125-150 AB’s he projects out to 13-14 HR & near 40 doubles. He has decent speed. In actuality, still growing & getting stronger, since he mastered his intestinal ailment. I don’t dislike Max Kepler. I really appreciate his defense! His supposed power brought up in a couple comments only existed in 2019……see juiced ball season. I do think the “shift” elimination has the potential to help Kepler maybe as much as 20-25 points in BA. His OBP & RBI can jump with this change as well. The problem is the Gallo signing makes Kepler’s talents and his accompanying salary not a fit for the ‘23 Twin’s roster. Gordon produced in ‘22 & should be pencilled in for LF & for Buxton’s primary back up in CF. If Gallo DH’s 10% of games - plays RF 30% of the time - 20% of the time in LF - 1B 10% of the time maybe he doesn’t disrupt Larnach & Kirilof & Gordon’s development? In this scenario Kepler plays 70% of the time in RF & we see if he gets his trade value up OR if we move Gallo at the deadline. It’s possible we DFA Gallo if he’s not producing by mid- June! I still see best scenario for the organization (after the questionable signing of Gallo) is to figure out what team that’s expected to contend & may have an expendable arm & may have interest in LH batting - everyday outfielder. We can throw in guys under team control (Celestino - Jeffers - Martin) & maybe a veteran reliever with upside……..Pagan - J. Lopez. This pkg. with Kepler has to be worth something to a handful of teams - right?

Agreed - we’ll be OK. The young guys will have success taking up Arraez slack. At least two of them will be productive! Marlins were locked into Arraez! The thing that bothered me was all the talk about Arraez not being durable enough to play - no defense - not a viable long term piece - shoes easily filled with young bat in the system. Kirilof had career saving surgery on his wrist & we have no idea what he’ll do for the Club. Arraez is a .314 hitter over 4 seasons - 10 other guys in MLB hit over .300 in 2022. To think one or more of our farm system guys are going to be that kind of hitter is being awfully optimistic! I’m upbeat about some of our talent but can’t assume .300 plus hitter is just automatically going to fall into our laps. At a .366 BA with RISP in 2022 I felt he deserves more respect than, “……we can’t worry about Arraez, we have 3-4 guys almost ready………”. .”………plus, he has bad knees”. this crap as a rationalization when we aren’t sure if Kirilof will ever be able to generate enough bat speed to hit .150 going forward.

How about N. Cruz trade for J. Ryan?

Pagan - got my fingers crossed. Hopefully, another team will see his value, along with Celestino’s & Kepler’s & we make a trade!! J. Lopez - fingers crossed as well!!! Maeda to Pen makes so much sense. Megill needs some simple fix………eliminate slider……..throw a cutter at 95. Fastball at 97-98……,,,.curve around 88-90. Develop the cutter - hopefully easier to command than slider, less arm wear & tear? A cutter OR a change-up. Just needs the 3rd pitch 15% of the time. Curve 30%. Fastball 55%. Great pitch mix for him to keep guys off balance. I really thinks he’s got the biggest upside of the relievers, other than Duran.

Managing innings out of the Pen is not complex! If we’re up in a game and it’s past 15 outs/start if 6th, Maeda holds lead through the 8th!! He does that every 4-5-6 days and he’s resting our Pen, & being very effective, with his innings being controlled. He pitched in the Dodger’s Pen for parts of 2 seasons. Very effective. We could use some talent/experience down there to get to Duran without using 3 guys up.

Not without a psychologist on the mound next to him……..really good stuff, no clue mentally. Tough to watch the 0-2 & 1-2 pitches right down the middle. OR the nibbling just off the plate to walk a guy after cruising through previous batter………..up 1-2 on next guy - HR. Then he pitches 2 2/3 of good relief over next 2 outings. I get he’s going to not be sharp some days but his focus (lack of) in the middle of a sharp outing is tough to tolerate!!! Mr. J. Lopez is very similar - good stuff, no guts. Gets behind being cute & then center cuts a fastball right down broadway, as they say. HR.

If you hit .199 for your career OR if you hit.260 vs. .314 you have less of a chance to get on base ……..less of a chance to drive runs in as well. Seems straightforward. If you only strikeout 7.1% of the time you have a better chance of getting on base. Also, your ability to drive in runs increases if you strike out at near the league’s best rate of 7.1% of the time. This is evidenced by Arraez .366 BA with RISP. Tell me that doesn’t matter. Our line-ups career averages denote that if our guys are average this season we will hit .260 as a team and will have success scoring runs. Again, seems straightforward.

Maybe we take Gallo & the new kid, Salas & another prospect for another arm with control in July? At this point, if we stand pat, we need to check into trading Kepler/Gallo/Celestino & some of our excess IF talent at the dead-line. Hopefully, we don’t stop pursuing pitching!

C - Vazquez - .274 3B - Miranda - .261 LF - Gordon - .261 DH - Larnach - .238 2B - Polanco - .270 1B - Kirilof - .250? CF - Buxton - .244 RF - Gallo - .199 SS - Correa - .279 (Miss that .314 career avg of Arraez) I’d wager that if we hit .260 as a team, which seems very possible with Larnach & Kirilof getting at bats and performing over a few months, we are a top 40% of the league team in runs scored. Would have loved to trade 4 other guys and kept Arraez………one of 11 guys that hit .300 plus in ‘22. Career .314 BA! Assuming we have guys that will make Arraez departure not matter is naive. I do think we have solid potential coming!! Arraez hit .366 with RISP in ‘22 & that’s exceptional. 7.1% strikeout rate & that’s exceptional!!! Tough to directly replace.

Mahle was on IL in early July of ‘22 in Cincinnati. I live in Cincinnati ……..really wanted Twins to focus on Luis Castillo!!!!! He is worth whatever we needed to add - exactly what everyone has been saying we need ALL off-season. Did anyone catch him down the stretch or in playoffs? ACE! That said, Mahle is OK……probably similar to López, as long as he isn’t throwing too many pitches trying to strike out everybody he faces! IF he gets healthy, & others can get out to the mound, it should be a nice 2023. Mahle - López - Ober - Gray - Ryan 150 - 180 - 120 - 140 - 170 Hopeful starter innings pitched……52% of baseline year. Winder - 75 innings as starter …….Varland - 65 innings as starter ……..SWR - 60 innings as starter………..this gets us to 65% of total innings. PEN: Maeda - Jax - Megill - Duran - Moran - Thielbar - Alcala - FA ……. (Fulmer or Chafin) OR J. Lopez Winder - Varland - SWR with options in the Wings. Hopefully, we continue to pursue pitching through Spring Training! Gotta move Pagan - Celestino - Kepler & probably a guy like Martin or other IF prospect (not Lee nor Lewis). Gotta get a starter or an excellent reliever for this group!

Agreed - if we take the risk of trading Arraez for pitching, & the guy that fills in hits anything above .280 it’s a win for us! My concern is the guy hits .255 & little pop & we’re saying he needs a couple more years to develop. Am optimistic but Lewis - 12 games - is 3 bad games from hitting only .265 in 2022. He looked good - promising! Very small look before injury. Not drafted #1 because he wasn’t any good. SECOND ACL injury on same knee in 2 years……he may be OK but it may not work out. We have more than one option now with guys that are coming so the odds are we will fill the Arraez hole by July, because it may take trying a few different guys.

Also, realize the NEED for making trades & potential trading for pitching is slim at this time of year. However, it seems to me and most everyone that signing Joey Gallo & keeping Max Kepler (with Gordon - Larnach - Walner as our real OF options other than Buxton) doesn’t make any sense. Doesn’t make any more sense now than it did a month ago. Trading Kepler for anyone other than pitcher seems not very likely. Am assuming the Marlins are set with their pitching situation? They do have approximately the 2nd best pitching prospect in MLB ready to go at some point (early) this year. They do still need offense. They are moving their 2nd baseman to CF to make room for Arraez at 2B. Maybe they want to protect Luis as well………pretty sure they’ve heard about his lower than average D at 2nd and his questionable knees!!! Again, we send Celestino for CF depth and a controllable guy for Miami. We send Kepler (starter in OF & upside w/o “the shift”) as well. From there it’s what Miami may be interested in………they just sent a high end IF prospect to us so Martin, with IF & OF capabilities may be of most interest……… maybe an arm to help protect there pitching depth? Celestino - Kepler - Martin - 1 of Sands - Pagan - J. Lopez for Luzardo I know this is not at all likely but if there’s an upside starter out there, 4 guys to get him is not too much!!!

So I have to jump in one if these ……..”bird in hand”…….….vs. all the Rosie prospects we have coming. 11 guys in the game hit .300 or better last year. Arraez has a .314 BA over 4 seasons. He struck out 7.1% of the time and had a .366 BA with RISP. Saying he wasn’t our best hitter in 2022 is nuts!! I like Lee - Lewis - etc coming from Farm/St Paul - but assuming they are going to out produce one of the 11 guys in the game that hit .300 or better last year because we are optimistic, is naive. EVERY organization has prospects they expect will succeed. Buxton & Correa are both really good players with more physical talent relative to power. If there’s someone on base, .366 BA with RISP is undeniable. If he batted 3rd or 5th his opportunities to drive in runs and to drive the ball would be much greater and his value in run production would be viewed differently! He bats lead-off and puts “the ball in play” and tries to get on base - that was his job. If he bats 3rd he may hit .295 but he’d have 85 RBI and he’d hit 12 HR with 40 doubles. Struck out 7.1% of the time……. I HOPE someday Alex Kirilof has 85RBI and 12 HR and hits .295!!!! 🤞🤞 We need pitching, I get that & support that. With the values shown above in article I’d propose Jeffers - Celestino - Kepler ……(Marlins need CF & left handed bats) & Pagan or J. Lopez for their left hander, Luzardo!! To me, he’s the guy to get. No crystal ball, just seems to have better stuff & much longer team control. ………..I’d throw in the versatile Austin Martin instead of Jeffers if that would make it happen!!! Bummed but will move on🙁🙁

Farmer will play all the time at 3rd vs. lefty starters……..Miranda at 1st. …………he’ll also spell Miranda for rest. He’s at 3rd 50 games this season. IF: Kirilof - Miranda - CC - Polanco - Farmer………they gotta think one of the other young guys is ready after spring training…….Lee - Martin - somebody? OF: Gordon - Larnach - Buxton - Gallo - Garlick DH: Larnach - Buxton - Kirilof - Garlick Need another bench guy if Kepler is gone - seems to me a young IF fits……….we don’t know about Kirilof’s health at this point either! If healthy, Lewis displaces Garlick at some point. Kepler - Pagan - Celestino - ???? from Farm in another trade. Just can’t imagine justifying keeping Kepler after Gallo trade!!

There’s a mention of a Six Man rotation but I only see the 5 guys everyone thinks will start…..,,at any rate I suggest the following edits. Acquire a starter………move Maeda to Pen & rid ourselves of Pagan, hopefully via trade. PLEASE sign Fulmer from FA market. Option Alcala to St. Paul. More stable Pen with experience! Ability to bridge from middle of 5th with 5-8 outs with Maeda!! Infield is cool with the 6 you’ve penciled in - Garlick displaces Celestino & Kepler is traded opening a spot for Larnach. Catchers are good. New guy - Gray - Mahle - Ryan - Ober Duran - Maeda - Jax - Megill - Fulmer - Moran - Thielbar - López Garlick - Gordon - Buxton - Gallo - Larnach Farmer - CC - Miranda - Polanco - Kiriloff - Arraez

I was of the thinking that they moved him from SS to 2B because of ankle issues - to protect his body. I missed the suspension down here in Cincinnati. I guess it was PED’s? I checked and other than a couple normal injuries for an infielder he was healthy up until last summer. Ankle - back - knee over 2 months in 2022 & then I assume they shut him down due to dropping from the race in late August. If he’s healthy, a switch hitting 2B that can drive in 85 runs & hit .270, year in & year out, has great value.

IMO you can’t average starts/yr. with Covid shortened 2020 in the mix. Am assuming you have the wrong López. Pablo pitches for Marlins - would be a Twin after a trade. …….We have a López now that’s a reliever. This starts per season chart just exemplifies why we (Rocco) takes pitchers out routinely in the 5th inning!!

Lee & Lewis seem to me to be the everyday prospects closest to MLB solid contributors. Still waiting for Larnach & Kirilof to actually contribute…….with Arraez at 25 & Miranda at 24, we have a lot of young guys (3-4 more at AA or AAA) that can contribute big things along with Vázquez - Polanco - CC - Buxton (veteran group) & there’s only 9 spots in the line-up. We need to consider moving some youth from Farm System that is now expendable with the Correa signing and get a front line pitcher. To me, Martin’s versatility in IF & OF & his outstanding ‘22 Fall Ball offense pushes him to front of prospect trade line. Top end marketability!!! I don’t know what trade partners want nor am I any kind of expert on our Minor League talent but I do know Marlins need left handed bats. Suggestion below that may make sense for Marlins? Open to other guys coming up based on what pop trade partner’s wants. Kepler - López or Pagan - Martin (not Lee nor Lewis) or whoever to Marlins For Luzardo PLEASE!!

You are certainly right about our general balance through the line-up. The concern stems from, in my opinion, that Gallo is a .199 career hitter and we probably want to sit him against LH pitching so we have some viable chance at success. Polanco hits both ways - Arraez - CC - Miranda - Vázquez - Buxton are all guys that are expected to hit against guys throwing from either side. The younger guys - platoon guys that have poor success from same side pitchers are guys we are trying to protect. Exactly why Garlick & Farmer may play OF/DH when Lefties are throwing against us. Same with Gordon & Larnach & Kirilof & Arraez & Gallo may all be in the line-up vs. Righties.

Career numbers…… seems like a reasonably balanced offense: C - Vázquez .274 BA DH - Larnach .239 BA 1B - Arraez .314 BA 2B - Polanco .270 BA SS - Correa .279 BA 3B - Miranda .261 BA LF - Gordon .261 BA CF - Buxton .244 BA RF - Gallo .199 BA 3 guys with averages less than .260 & all 3 have quite a bit of Pop or at least the expectation that they will hit for Power Kirilof - Farmer - Garlick - Jeffers are reasonable bench guys………lots of DH at bats for Buxton - Kirilof - Larnach - Arraez - Garlick

OF: Gordon - Buxton - Gallo (Larnach - Farmer) IF: Miranda - CC - Polanco - Arraez (Kirilof - Farmer) DH: Garlick - against lefties DH: Larnach - Kirilof - Arraez against righties C: Vázquez - Jeffers Assuming health…………..Best 13 as of now……..Lewis in late summer may take Garlick’s spot due to IF - OF - DH flexibility.

Polanco is the guy with bad legs……77 games in 2018 after a full season in 2017. 104 games in 2022. Ankle & knee problems. Arraez started 129 last year & played in 144 games.

Unfortunately, Gallo hit .169 last year to drag his career BA to .199. Unbelievable, I know. Arraez hit .366 with RISP in ‘22. If he bats down in the lineup a couple spots he protects the guy in front of him and has 85 RBI.