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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    As a guy who’s called for Max being DFA’d more than once this year…….if you go deeper than the occasional eye test and look at the numbers presented Wallner isn’t as good, & Max is reasonable. I watch most every game and Kepler’s defense in the last week probably out shines anything Wallner could do in 5 years. There’s value in that even though it’s tough to remember when Max taps out to the second baseman. If he can stay at average OPS of .730 - hit 24 HR’s in 130 games - hit .235 plus, with his defense, he should start v. every RH we face and probably against half the LH as well. He may well exceed these expectations. Clubhouse positive is part of why he’s been kept - gotta be with his tenure. If he keeps playing at the pace we’ve seen lately they will definitely pick up his option for ‘24. …….gotta say that part of his problem is staying healthy but some seems to be between his ears - sure seems his mind is right over past couple weeks on O & D…..big hits & big catches!!
  2. JD-TWINS
    He gets one - maybe two more starts. Slow grounders to 2B & pop ups in the infield are no way to work your way back into the line-up. Errors and wild throws over 3-4 games don’t help either. Gotta let Castro & Farmer cover 3B and get Wallner in Miranda’s spot after the break.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Guys on MLB Network…….I saw a comparison of Arraez to Gallo maybe 6 weeks ago. Gallo was hitting around .225 but much better power numbers. It was interesting “runs generation” analysis. Brian Kenney had to yield to the .410 BA but it took 15 minutes of back & forth. Gallo was making contact about 29% of the time at that point - by my memory. The national pundits are united in the lack of interest in BA. I saw this morning in a TD article that if CC was hitting .270 …….much closer to his ‘22 BA of .291 that his OPS would be above 800. His power numbers mirror ‘22 or are close but his .220 BA drags his OPS down close to 700. This comparison of CC’s ‘22 & ‘23 seem to make it obvious that BA has a big effect on overall run generation.
  4. JD-TWINS
    Sure doesn’t sound like much of a leading performance!
  5. JD-TWINS
    Within physical boundaries (reasonable rest) & mental expectations (maturity) the Manager inserts players and PLAYERS make things happen or not. Strategic decisions fall on the Manager but hitting a ball or not looking foolish trying to hit a ball or not throwing into the middle/middle of the plate are ALL driven by the players. There’s no accountability to the manager that a $35M/yr player can’t hit - leads the league in batted into double plays!! Buxton has fantastic exit velocity over past 15-20 AB’s - CC has approximately 7-8 hits in past 4 games - Kepler is playing inspired defense and has had two 2-hit games in past 4 - Gallo is contributing………they all didn’t just react to Baldelli’s taking accountability for their play. It may be we’ve run across some just “OK pitching” but it appears that hitting with 2 strikes is glaringly better over the past 4 games……adjustment by hitters.
  6. JD-TWINS
    Experience is a big deal - confidence is even a bigger deal if paired with experience………he seems to have both right now. He could be a nice shot in the arm, innings eater in August/September as a starter. He could be the long reliever as well. With his kind of stuff, it seems you may only want guys to see him once? He’s Maeda with less velocity. He does/did have a nice sinking fastball at on point. Once he’s up he can’t be sent down without someone else claiming him. If he’s successful in St. Paul over the next 3-4 weeks I would expect they’ll make a spot for him……for no other reason, just to keep others fresh.
  7. JD-TWINS
    With the offensive stats spread between Miranda & Wallner in St. Paul, I really thought that they would live with Farmer/Castro/Julien/Solano to cover 3B & 2B and let Wallner get maybe 3 starts between now & the break. Couple starts at DH & 1 in RF. With Kepler & Gallo contributing once or twice per week, I don’t see either of them going anywhere. Unfortunately! Surely seems like Wallner should get an opportunity, particularly with the consistently blah results we are getting across the river.
  8. JD-TWINS
    We have plenty of infield coverage with Farmer - Julien - Castro - Solano……..get Wallner up for the 6 games at home prior to Break! He can start in RF once & DH a couple times. Great opportunity!
  9. JD-TWINS
    Hoping Kepler - Buxton - Gallo - Kirilloff are somewhere on the July list!!!!
  10. JD-TWINS
    The consistency, along with a few high points from each, have proven the FO acquiring Farmer - Castro - Solano - Stewart were all very astute. Arraez v. Lopez: Do we think as a group that if Arraez was hitting .325 or even .298 that we wouldn’t have so much to be embarrassed about? I hear pundits on TV & written contributors at TD state that we got the bad end of this trade because Luis is flirting with .400. Am fairly sure he was hitting .365 last year in late July…….he had a .316 career BA after ‘22. He lead the AL in BA last year. His productivity & high average are no surprise. The level of his productivity will come down just like CC’s will go up. Arraez is a great hitter and will remain so - we made a decision to trade that very difficult to replicate skill, and get a solid pitcher to help us be more competitive every 5th day. Our “W total” isn’t hinged on Arraez having a down year & us being perceived to have won a trade! No embarrassment if he hits .410 - hope he does. Lopez is grinding & trying to get better……we have him for 3.5 years more at a minimum & I expect good things. Here’s to good health for both!!
  11. JD-TWINS
    If Gallo can continue on the 7-8 homers per month pace, we can put up with the .190 average & 40% strikeout rate. His defensive depth potential at 3 positions can’t be overlooked. If CC gets his yearly average up to .245-.250 (30 plus points) he will have been an effective hitter in the 2nd half. Vazquez getting to his career average of “only .270” is a pretty unrealistic ask. Pretty sure the league BA is under .240 & he’s hitting .225 now……..if he can get to .250 it would be a big shot in the arm……he’d have to hit near .280 for the 2nd half. Solano has 3 HR - nobody complaining about his power - Vázquez getting XBH isn’t important as he’s the slowest individual on the team. Less double plays & some more hits with RISP would be nice. ALL 3 have plenty of time to get their numbers up to reasonable for the season. These guys hitting their career averages will help us win ballgames v. the first half underperforming.
  12. JD-TWINS
    Looks very accurate! Hopefully, Maeda will be in the mix for July honors! Getting Stewart & Thielbar healthy & effective by August 1 could be a really big deal for the club. Headrick - Moran - Balazovic - Jax - Duran - Ortega?…….Stewart - Thielbar looks pretty good for stretch run! Gray has to get to 5 2/3 regularly to get a chance for some wins. “Most underrated” - Bailey Ober……nothing but super consistent!!!
  13. JD-TWINS
    CC - Kepler - Buxton are obviously root problem ………all the other stuff is just noise. Polanco out over 50% of the time doesn’t help!! Gallo is being Gallo - no surprise. On paper, based on career histories, we were a well put together roster! Baldelli doesn’t bat - FO isn’t striking out at record setting numbers. Pitching has held up - new guys are OK - core of Kepler - CC - Buxton are what’s dragging us down!!! Miranda sucked - Gallo experiment has not been a positive - Shift elimination has dropped Kepler’s average 35 points instead of bumping it 35 points - CC & Buxton have flashes of ability every 6-10 games. Vazquez has disappeared. I don’t see how any of this is FO problem. DFA or bench Kepler - DFA or bench Gallo - CC & Buxton to the IL until after the Break or until end of July. Change is needed.
  14. JD-TWINS
    It’s subtle, but I have to agree that while personalities are all different, there does seem to be a lack of “want to” in the line-up. Unfortunately, Polanco - Kepler - Gallo all seem to fit the laid back view to the game & the results……….pretty subjective but that’s what it looks like. In the FIVE THINGS - Kepler has to be rolled into the report of underperformance! 1) Walner/Julien playing a combination of RF - 2B - DH v. RH pitching seems to be a positive in the near-term. 2) Buxton to the IL through the break or even the month of July. Spot for Walner. 3) Kepler as a bench guy, at best, in case an OF emergency. 4) Larnach to replace, a DFA’d or a traded Gallo for some salary relief for whoever we trade him to, need to do to facilitate a trade. We may get zero return and just need to cover 70% of his salary through September. He’s got more defensive flexibility and value than Kepler but there’s a sentimental attachment with Kepler that is less with Gallo. Really should move or DFA both - one would be a move in right direction! 5) Polanco’s health needs to be determined. If he needs through July, then make the move to longer IL stint. Julien/Farmer/Castro can handle 2B well enough. 6) Give CC a break from (IL) from July 5 through the All-Star break. Piece SS together between Farmer/Castro for 10 games. 7) Don’t ever play Solano at 2B again - a personal pet peeve. 8) Larnach at DH if Julien & Walner are both playing D v. RH pitching. Gotta make some changes……Kepler - Gallo - Buxton - CC are the obvious guys to shift from starting line-up……..some for a brief time. NICE ARTICLE …….I too have confidence that we can hold it together in 2nd half with pitching. Lopez & Ober deserve better luck & if healthy, Maeda - Gray - Ryan will keep grinding! Hopefully, Varland can help keep guys fresh. Strikeouts matter!! Gotta change approach.
  15. JD-TWINS
    How can Walner perform at a lesser level? I don’t think he’s going to hit .280 but he can certainly hit the occasional surprise HR every 6-10 games and butcher up opportunities with RISP……….the difference is at the same time he’s gaining experience. Max has had more than reasonable opportunity!!! We’re to the point of the definition for insanity with Max & Joey……..same approach expecting a different outcome…….it doesn’t change - still nuts this week, just like last week!
  16. JD-TWINS
    He’s fragile. He’s a blah hitter to watch when he isn’t hot for a 1-3 day window. He swings from the heels too much - that is who he is. Hence back spasms. Hardest hit ball in the game through the 5th inning the other day and it was a ground ball of his to short…….when he squares it, that’s exciting. All of this was easier to take when he played CF, OR when he wasn’t on the field and we all could just reminisce about his catches and drives into the gaps or into the seats. ………he averaged SITTING 54% of the time in 7 of 8 seasons…….we’ve done lots of reminiscing & romancing of Byron Buxton.
  17. JD-TWINS
    OR if Kirilloff would have just caught the ball - 2 hop smash hit by him in the ground earlier, tough play - dropped/missed relay from Solano into the dugout……didn’t hurt BUT it really made me think he’s not a real good first baseman with all 3 of these happening in one game.
  18. JD-TWINS
    Agreed. Can’t argue that selling makes sense when we have 30 plus days to consider & are currently in first place! Moving in a positive direction should be this year’s goal at this point - as you point out. CC & Buxton have had big moments but have generally been very disappointing. Polanco is hurt a good chunk of the time! Miranda - Larnach - Vazquez - Gordon have all been more than underwhelming from where expectations were April 1. The Kepler & Gallo experiments have shown to prove recent history correct, solid defense …….embarrassing offense. Kirilloff seems healthy - Julien seems like he may stick - Lewis is at the start of a solid career - Farmer & Castro & Taylor & Solano & Jeffers are all doing their jobs as part-time bench/platoon guys, even though almost all are starting regularly now. With ALL OF THIS GLOOM, we still have a good shot at winning the division. Any positive step forward with this roster (& the performances to date) would be a big positive change in the narrative. Addition by subtraction: Pagan - Lopez (maybe long-term IL?) - Kepler - Gallo all down the road in next 2-5 weeks!!!
  19. JD-TWINS
    They won’t trade an MVP out of that market. They let Albert age and then pick his own team/contract. Not the same as Goldschmidt but as reigning MVP and current run producer, they don’t need to trade him to solve issues. They have (on paper) a glut of potential in young OF talent. Arenado/Goldschmidt bring them leadership & consistency & ability. Ober, with 5 years of control for a guy that displaces Solano the balance of this year & any chance Miranda may have to play going forward, is not a good move for 18 months. Teach Buxton to play 1B in ‘24 before trading away pitching.
  20. JD-TWINS
    Trading Ober would be about as bad an idea as I can imagine. He’s a walking “quality start”! Our available AAA level guys aren’t going to excite anybody. To me, Julien - Miranda - Martin are all eligible for a decent return. Goldschmidt is way too good of a player for way too good of a cost (mid $20’sM) for St. Louis to worry about or seriously consider moving - they draw 3 million per year nearly every year & have plenty of $$. He was MVP last year w/o a big decline in ‘23. He’s not going anywhere! ……..maybe in ‘24 if they are not competitive?
  21. JD-TWINS
    $$ & some A ball prospect for Chapman or Hand. Need backend depth & experience. August 1 Pen: Headrick - Moran - Thielbar Duran Pagan - Jax - Balazovic - Stewart If Thielbar is healthy by mid-July, great. If not, we need another guy with experience.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Julien doesn’t play 1B or we would have seen by now - Kirilloff was rehabbing for more than a month - Miranda was playing 3B prior to Lewis & through Farmer’s injury. Duvall instead of Gallo - sure, no problem with that. Gallo had a nice first 6 weeks and played a really good 1B when asked to do so. Needed somebody willing to sign with us - McCutcheon got hung up on returning to Pittsburgh & Duvall probably was reluctant with all the youth OF we have? Maybe not enough money? Maybe we didn’t pursue hard enough? Duvall would be a nice piece for Twins!
  23. JD-TWINS
    He was tiring and hit .265 the last couple months and he was playing with AAA guys in ‘22……..no real problem with the trade but good hitters are hard to find. He’s 100 points better than Lewis & 100 points better than Kirilloff and they both are certainly making a difference in the midst of other mediocrity. Not every day but at least 3-4 days per week. Rationalizing Luis isn’t or wouldn’t be a difference maker isn’t fair to him but López can be a solid contributor and the trade is done!
  24. JD-TWINS
    Who can they trade that has value? I’ve brought up Julien & Miranda in a couple places today. Not challenging you, just curious on who we have as alternatives. Celestino seems to me to be a real stretch unless he’s much improved from ‘22. Not sure of other names?
  25. JD-TWINS
    Where does Miranda play??……he’s been in AAA for 5 weeks working on his swing. Can only roster 26 guys going forward…..Julien is an energetic bat but medium/long-term it’s Lee’s position. Right?…….we have Polanco/Farmer/Castro (Gordon) to get us through this year & to the point of Lee being ready next year some time. I like Julien but trying to be realistic on what gets us a decent return. Larnach was sent back to AAA twice when leading the Twins in RBI……what do they think of him? “potential” and “sweet swing” only gets one so far in MLB. I see a star in Larnach’s bat but he has to perform when given opportunities. We traded Steer and he’s thriving in Cincinnati - Twins have needs & can’t worry about guys we trade having success.
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