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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    Great excitement to see prospects come to fruition & make The Show! The problem I see with it happening this year is it means we have underperforming or injured veterans. That said, I am in no hurry. Julien - Kiriloff - Miranda all potentially at 1B going forward. Larnach - Walner - Gordon - Martin - Rodriguez all corner outfielders going forward. Lee/Lewis gotta have 2B & 3B covered going forward. Buxton - Correa - Vázquez - Jeffers are all locks going forward in ‘24……….can we get 9 other guys out of the 10 guys shown without having any depth problems? Too much position duplication? Wasting talent/value on the bench? …………… Gallo - Kepler - Polanco - Taylor - Farmer are all gone in ‘24 with the scenario above. Can we feel comfortable with so many guys in first or second year in ‘24? What if we have health this year & win 95 games? Do we automatically jettison all the vets because we are anxious? Lots of variables on who performs in ‘23 - I get that. Farmer may be under contract for ‘24? I’m excited to see what we can do, how many wins we can put together with this deeper veteran club…….the young guys can help if needed but I’m hoping for success with the 26 man roster we start with!
  2. JD-TWINS
    Needed Alcala or Megill to step forward this spring. After 2 weeks Alcala looks stable and better. His stuff is better than Jax - just a matter of having the health & mental toughness. If right, he’s an 8th inning shutdown type of guy. Jax - Moran - Alcala - Thielbar - Duran ……..these guys can get us through 7th, 8th, & 9th for W’s! Dobnack or Winder or Sands as Long guy. Other 2 guys???? Nobody’s got a perfect Pen. Hoping for Pagan & López to be usable…..if they start slow, we need to shift guys from AAA in a hurry. SWR potentially in relief - potentially Balazovic in relief as well.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Duped! His career ERA is over 6-7 years of service & is over 5.00. That’s a pretty good view of who he is. Why would Baltimore trade a guy with his pitch mix & velocity that was headed to an All-Star game with 2 additional years of control? I’ve typed this here before, I think his problem is between his ears. I think Baltimore realized that……the Twins beat him up twice in July before trading for him. How do you get ahead 1-2 76% of the time and have a high walk rate & low strikeout rate??? No guts/aggression! He was great through June & started a slide in July. Baltimore noticed - & they are cheap, so they sold high! He seems to lose command/location & gets pounded after being ahead in counts…….very similar to Pagan. Obviously, hoping for the best for these 2 guys but I don’t know if they will ever have the make-up to make big pitches in key situations. I’d take 3.85 ERA’s if they only pitch if it’s 5th, 6th, or 7th innings ……..or we’re behind. At least they’d be eating innings.
  4. JD-TWINS
    I don’t understand signing him for anything more than he may take & if you’ve had arm issues more than once it is crazy not to take an upgraded, guaranteed deal. I’m not cheap but giving a guy long term security buys down the price of his arbitration years……as with Clase……club options for $10.5 million a year once a free agent is the club’s benefit for giving him an early deal. I wait until mid year to keep this year’s cost static. I think this means 4 years (24 - ‘27) plus 2 years total. …….if he’s healthy, sign him mid-year this year. $4.0 for 2 years …….$5.0 for 2 years …….. a 5th year at $10.0, also guaranteed! Club option at $11 for another year after year 5. Year 5 is a good guarantee for Duran at this point in his career - Year 6 is a good deal for Twins in 2029 $$.
  5. JD-TWINS
    Can’t imagine him playing 2B …….we have Lee/Lewis/Martin……….team options on Polanco through ‘25. If Jorge can’t stay healthy or if his power is gone I could see them letting him go. However, if the guy is a Top 10 - 2B in the game with offense/defense combined, I’m not in a hurry to move a $10 million contract ………switch hitting veteran with 25 HR power! Still, we try to find a spot for Julien! Larnach - Walner - Rodriquez - Julien - Martin - Lewis - Lee - Kiriloff - Miranda - Gordon …….sorry to say, we can’t play all these guys because they aren’t all going to pan out due to health or ability to hit. If they do all hit we have 4 possible 3B…….6 possible OF……..4 possible 2B……4 possible 1B……good problems!! Buxton - CC - Vázquez - Jeffers are all on the roster for 3 years minimum, that leaves 9 other spots in ‘24 & ‘25. If they all become good to better MLB hitters then we have the best Farm System ever! Ever!! I think they should all have success in their careers but that’s not very realistic. Let’s see Julien & Lee have some success at AAA before worrying about where they’ll have a spot on big club. Lewis still has to get healthy. 1 or 2 steps at a time!
  6. JD-TWINS
    They all look like Don Matingly, Tony Oliva, Carl Yastrzemski, Norm Cash, Fred Lynn, Justin Morneau, David Ortiz, Kent Hrbek, George Brett & Joe Mauer in the batter’s box.
  7. JD-TWINS
    Seems like a cheap depth move. No conspiracy theory that everyone else is going to be out for extended period. Good athlete that can play all 3 OF positions if we are really desperate at some point. Good organizational move.
  8. JD-TWINS
    Completely agree! Appears he got in really good shape - bummer he can’t throw. Last year, even if we wanted to try and play Miranda at 3B, with a good chunk of the roster hurt, we needed to plug him at 1B or DH just to start 9 guys. Urshella was solid at 3B both offensively & defensively. Farmer costs 1/2 of Urshella & is a former everyday SS & comfortable at 2B & 3B. Good exchange in the pursuit of positional depth! Miranda’s arm is potentially just a Spring Training strain but he needs to heal soon. If Kirilof is healthy & if Miranda can’t throw effectively, the new 3B options will push him to DH & 1B platoons. If Lee/Lewis take over 3B in ‘24, Miranda has a slim future as a RH bat in our line-up. On paper, Larnach - Kirilof - Gordon - Walner - Julien all play ahead of him (as well as Buxton 30-40 games) at DH v. RH pitching (75% of games). Seems like there should always be room for a good bat on the roster - thought that about Luis A. as well.
  9. JD-TWINS
    Seems Gallo would be short-term LH bat solution at 1B if Kirilof isn’t ready April 1. No question. LH bat solution if Kirilof is washed for months, would be to get Gordon up to speed. Fielding balls isn’t an issue - footwork around the base would take a month or more while Gallo holds down the position for 6-8 weeks against RH pitching. At some point is leaving Gallo at 1B OK & Gordon in LF OK…….less risky? Obviously, hope Kirilof is up with Big Club very soon!
  10. JD-TWINS
    I get the “maybes” & “what ifs” for conversation sake. However, if Nick Gordon can’t get over an ankle sprain in another 10 days, he has a more serious injury. Is Miranda throwing at all? He is my concern……everyone has braced for Kirilof not being able to play again this year but Miranda was penciled in for 100 games at 3B - 35 games between DH & 1B……I get he can DH or even play 1B for a month but he can’t force LH bats out of the line-up v. RH pitching at either of these spots! Picked up Solano to play 1B & DH v. LH pitching.
  11. JD-TWINS
    Conservative guess, 15-13……..don’t think we realize our advantage in starter depth until maybe June. Really think we’ll routinely pick up W’s with our 3-4-5 guys vs. other team’s back end starters!
  12. JD-TWINS
    Kirilof has to be the most concerning guy! Big potential - poor health history - essentially at the final step in potentially making it or not. If he can play daily, the team’s success is looking good. Gallo is Kirilof’s LH hitting replacement at 1B. This gets Gordon/Larnach into LF…..not a terrible thing. Gordon & Taylor can cover CF if Buxton goes down. Solano/Farmer/Lee can cover for Miranda at 3B if arm issues linger.
  13. JD-TWINS
    Taylor is solid v. 25% of the games when there’s a lefty starter…….pinch hitter - pinch runner - late inning Defense. A true back up!;
  14. JD-TWINS
    Jeffers seems like a good depth catcher to me at this point. ALL teams play at least 2 guys at Catcher……..few play more than 70%, right? The 2nd guy on 30 teams can’t be significantly better than Jeffers. Vazquez is a good #1 guy with a better than decent bat…….Jeffers is developing - hopefully, Vázquez rubs off on him.
  15. JD-TWINS
    Lee & Julien need a couple months at AAA to get acclimated to another level before considering for Big Club. Need to at least start year in St. Paul so we don’t burn a year of control going forward. Larnach needs to prove health over some time period more than a couple weeks……..same with Kirilof…….Solano signing is another smart depth move. The 2 young guys are more appealing but they have to be available! Walner needs to work on D, other than arm, and strike out about 10% less than historically. Julian, while showing great upside, needs to spend a couple months in AAA to be sure he’s good to go at next level. Same with Lee. As stated above, Julian & Lee lose year of control if on Opening Day roster. Let’s wait at least a few weeks.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Ray gets $23M/year over life of contract……,he pitched a fair amount of innings and stayed healthy……..give ya that & there is value in that!………….12-12 with a 3.71 ERA is not an ACE. With the addition of Castillo at the break last year, it may have dropped Ray to being Seattle’s 5th best starter. Seriously.
  17. JD-TWINS
    He’s at $14.5 this year I believe and was pissed because the club wouldn’t pay another $300K - they built an argument against his recent year’s performance……..gotta think his arbitration number is no more than $20M in ‘24. Whatever, pay him something a bit higher than the expectation to help the relationship.
  18. JD-TWINS
    If we had a proven - solid Pen, I could care less about signing an ACE. We do have a solid starting Staff now w/o an “ace” & if we had 5 good/reliable relievers for playoffs I’d be good. Jax - Duran - Thielbar …….. Moran ………we now have 4 guys in our Pen we can rely on but the others are all suspect regarding consistency or health. I think, for ‘23, we should drop minor league starters into Pen roles with Big Club. We can drop one of the starters to relief in play-offs.
  19. JD-TWINS
    Didn’t work because he hurt his knee and needed a procedure & rest. Can’t do that in May if you’re still hitting the baseball well. He played off & on while continuing to help the offense………didn’t work in ‘22 because he was injured. He played 2nd most games in a season last year. Only played over a hundred games once! ‘22 wasn’t his first year being hurt. Need to try & load manage from the jump this year to TRY and extend his health and get more at bats. “Putting him out there until he’s hurt…….” hasn’t been real positive historically.
  20. JD-TWINS
    Agreed - your New Chart looks about as close as one could come! Larnach needs to play & hit .500 this spring to even get a thought for opening day - still don’t see it w/o an injury to an outfielder.
  21. JD-TWINS
    Exactly, 80 games in CF v. RH pitching (Taylor starts 40 games v. LH pitching) - 50 games at DH - 32 games sitting. 50% - 30% - 20%……80% of the games with him hitting is a way better % than his entire career! He played 140 games one season…..92 games is his 2nd highest total after 7 seasons. Agreed on his attitude about DHing……never going to get 500 AB’s plus playing CF and getting his knee drained every 3 weeks. Gordon picks up the other 40 starts in CF v. RH pitching.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Robbie Ray could be one of worst FA signings ever - he may be their 5th starter……….Rodon signed for $27/yr……Tallion signed for $17/yr…….Wacha can get $24-$30 over 4 years…….Bassitt signed for 3 yrs at $21M/yr. It’s $ and years weighed together. I think we extend Burnes an extra $6 million over his potential arbitration high in ‘24 as a good faith move. Then $30M/yr for 3 additional years. That’s a good offer relative to any signings of ‘22-‘23.
  23. JD-TWINS
    ………back to Burnes & $/contract details……if we could get him this summer at the deadline, offer him over arbitration $ for ‘24, around $24M & then offer $30M for 3 additional years. I can’t believe he would risk pitching all of ‘24 for arbitration $ of around $18M without any compensation guarantee past ‘24 & not take the additional $96M we would be offering for 3 more years and a signature by end of calendar ‘23. Who would we trade? I think a starter with control - Ober…….an OF prospect - Walner…….an IF prospect - Martin…….just saw Martin has been shutdown with a UCL elbow injury. Bummer! Who else is worth moving to get Brewer’s attention?
  24. JD-TWINS
    Where do you get 5 years? I don’t keep detailed track of the Free Agent signings but I don’t recall many guys signing for more than 3 years as pitchers. He’s making $14 this year I think & one more year of control. If we could get him by August 1 and bump him to $22 (we’ll above arbitration) in ‘24 & give him $30 in ‘25 & ‘26 it seems pretty fair to him! If he needs 5 years & that’s the market - that’s what we need to do for an Ace. Maybe it’s $26M/yr for 5 years……we get a discount on ‘24 & actually have him for 6 years. Risky but an Ace. Gotta act if we truly want an Ace.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Sure every other organization is hoping for good health & if they don’t get it they will not be able to compete. You think the Yankees aren’t bothered by Rodon’s health - you think the Angels just shrug every time Trout can’t play….their All-star 3rd baseman hasn’t played 100 games since they signed him 2-3 years ago. Can only have so much built in depth that’s major league ready! We have a half dozen prospects that many want to see play this year but there’s no roster room in theory……maybe there will be. Hope not! Polanco - Buxton I gotta think are ready and will play 8-10 games prior to season’s start. It would be nice to get some confirmation from team. Kirilof seems behind an April 1 start with Big Club …….he needs reps coming off surgery and he’s not getting them. Miranda’s shoulder may linger? Seems Farmer will drop in as starter there if needed. May see Lee sooner than expected! Larnach - lower body injury????? Gordon’s ankle will be fine by the end of the month. Please keep him out of the infield. He may work into some time at 1B through the year if Kirilof is a wash? Henriquez is down for a month at this time of the year with elbow (behind elbow) soreness. Mahle - Gray - Maeda - Lopez - Ryan all have thrown and all have been soreness free ……keeping fingers crossed!! Pagan - grand slam…….seems to be a sign…..DFA’d by April 20th!
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