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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    Kirilloff started hot and is now down to a normal .275 BA……pinch hitting was a little odd but he’s not Mickey Mantle - need to give Castro a chance from the right side. Solano got a hit the other night when he pinch hit. No complaint there.
  2. JD-TWINS
    Reasons why we try to keep performers like Polanco for as long as we can. There’s always a shiny new guy with some success and “he just needs a chance to show what he can do……..” nothing new. Players come & some that are touted as sure things, are going to wash out OR take 4-5 years to get to the right consistency level.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Looking forward to Lewis just like everybody else. He’s going through what is essentially his Spring Training this month. I assume he will be up by mid-June to July 1 at latest. 3B is not a problem since Miranda went down. Farmer is sufficient defensively & our 2nd/3rd best hitter per statistics. Polanco comes back we’re solid at 2B. CC is at SS. Kirilloff is playing great. Catchers are doing a decent job on both sides of the plate. Infield is set, near-term. I see Lewis at 3B by July 1 with Farmer back into resting guys around the infield & playing 60-70% of the time. Current Line-up v. RH starters: OPS+ Gallo - 139 CF Buxton - 124 DH Correa - 92 SS Kirilloff - 184 1B Polanco - 122 2B Farmer - 119 3B Larnach - 96 LF Jeffers - 109 C Kepler - 103 RF If 100 is essentially a baseline for reasonable production we aren’t as in terrible need for help as we all think. TIMELY hitting helps……..we all expect Larnach & Correa to hit at least 40 points higher BA by end of July……..decent line-up. With Gordon out I’d opt for Gallo or Kepler in CF v. Castro. Castro doesn’t have the bat to start & provides nice flexibility off the bench in various roles. HELP is needed in the Pen!! Maeda - Headrick - Balazovic are all worth looks in the Pen….IMO.
  4. JD-TWINS
    It seems the They we are referring to is principally Jorge Lopez. First 10 plus innings of the season dominant/perfection! Since then, still looks to have good stuff but not getting outs in tough situations. Discouraging. Need bullpen depth with trying a AAA reliever or two. New guys. Funderburk - Balazovic - somebody. Sands is never used so why have him take up a roster spot?……..really hopeful Maeda may help in Pen soon - in June! Maybe Headrick - why not, he’s effective?………..can’t worry about keeping him stretched out in case of injury to someone else. Need to utilize him!
  5. JD-TWINS
    Balazovic to Twins to pick up that middle-leverage type of role. Replacing Alcala in his role. A parallel to Stewart. Duran - Lopez Thielbar - Jax - Stewart - Balazovic - Maeda - Moran by June 5th. ……………………………………. Headrick should be first up to help by July 1st. Henriquez - Sands - Winder - Funderburk as/if needed. Anybody the TWINS don’t have at AAA isn’t worth commenting on as a fan! Who knows.
  6. JD-TWINS
    I do not get the burning need to see Buxton in CF other than just as an “exciting visual possibility.” We have had a Gold Glove CF start 70% of the games. Buxton has been in the line-up 41 of 45 games. ………..he’s averaged playing in 46% of the games in 7 of 8 years in big leagues………He has an OPS of .835 & has helped carry us to 6-7 of our 25 wins. Things seem to be working. I see fans here clamoring for Kiriloff as the DH. Seems we just create a hitting deficiency at 1B then? Again, since he’s been up he’s doing well, including 2 spot uses as a pinch hitter in the last 2 games with great success! As of this morning, Buxton was pinch hit for last night due to “upper leg stiffness”. He’s going to play CF maybe 30 games this year when it’s nice & warm in the evenings. Maybe. In the meantime, Taylor looks fine on defense even though his back may be bothering him. He was robbed of a straightaway centerfield HR on Friday night. V. RH pitching, Gallo or Castro or Taylor in CF until Gordon re-habs in 5-6 weeks. Typically Larnach in LF & Kepler in RF. Kepler is back this week apparently. IF Buxton needs some time off, Julien can DH v. RH pitching while Castro fills in for Polanco. How about Kyle Farmer!!! 10 games since he took over for Miranda & he’s got 9 RBI & hit .395 over those games. The Garlick - Solano - Farmer RH bats v. LH pitching went 6 for 11 last night in 6-2 win. FO has done a nice job building depth in ‘23! Who would have thought that on May 21st Gordon - Polanco - Miranda - Kepler - Buxton may all be out of the line-up and nobody is freaking out? We are taking FO for granted with the guys we have available & their level of ability to step up & perform. Hoping Gordon is back by July 1 !!!
  7. JD-TWINS
    Maeda has to be a reliever when back. Period. Duran - Lopez - Thielbar -Jax - Stewart….that’s 6 These guys can all perform 3 out of 4 times…….up to 6 or 7 times w/o a hick-up. Last 2 spots are up in the air: Moran is about 60% effective, a maybe??…….I think Balazovic would be worth a try to be a potential shot in the arm. My favorite choice is to ignore starter depth and to bring Headrick into the Pen! Henriquez can get guys out in short bursts. If we’re giving Alcala multiple looks & Moran multiple looks it seems the 2,guys at AAA should get a shot (one at a time) to see how they hold up in 2 outings…….Laweryson & Funderburk. All these guys have options so let’s not go crazy, but try a couple. We know what Sands & Winder are all about…..mediocre & hurt.
  8. JD-TWINS
    I liked Chafin or Hand (either) as well as Fulmer, so it’s not easy to get it right. Alcala & Moran pitch the way we expected & all is good……(ERA of around 4.00 with a few less walks)……. even take away 2 bad outings by Jax & everybody would be satisfied. Pagan has to go just to make one feel like organization is at least trying to do the right thing. Week of June 5th: Twins Pen Stewart - Jax - Balazovic - Thielbar - Maeda - Lopez - Duran - Headrick (next up, Moran - Alcala - Sands) I get Headrick is stretching out to back up the current remaining 5 starters but we need him in Pen now. He gets outs. Will have to flex if another starter goes down. Hoping Winder gets right in another 30-45 days!
  9. JD-TWINS
    So, I agree on Cano & premature timing for crown judgement ….,..also hope he does well. Same for López. Although, after 20 innings for Twins last year I had him ranked right next to Pagán. I wanted him released. Even with great start this year, he scares me. He’s had a couple outings where he came in for Jax & let the guys on base score……Jax ERA up ….Lopez, unscathed. He doesn’t seem to throw strikes in high leverage situations, with base runners. He looks fantastic starting an inning fresh but once he allows runners his command seems to drift, regularly! I get nobody is perfect but his stuff (velocity plus pitch array) is really good but he, like Pagan, throws too many middle/middle pitches in tight spots. Have seen him give up 0-2 hits more than once. Whoever is calling the game may have some responsibility but my assumption is it’s ultimately the pitcher’s end call on what’s thrown. He just doesn’t seem to have the right stuff between his ears. Anyway, my question all along, particularly late last season when he really struggled, is why would a team around .500 trade an All-Star reliever? He was under contract for 2 1/2 more years and not expensive………I think they knew he had/has some weakness between the ears & it was too soon to judge him for the long term.
  10. JD-TWINS
    So, I think Miranda’s only shot is to assume a role that Solano has now. Back-up 3B - RH 1B - RH pinch hitter - occasional DH. Julien only gets reps at 2B. Almost seems he’s being groomed for a trade. With Lee & Lewis, I don’t see him getting any innings especially with the real possibility we hang in to Polanco. With reps at 3B for Lewis at AA & AAA & Lee only playing SS at AA, it seems Lewis would be the 2nd option at 3B this year from mid-June on, along with Farmer. Either can rest CC. Farmer can rest Polanco. Right now, Farmer is probably the 3rd best hitter on the team since coming back from injury! Julien - Martin - Lee are all behind Miranda & way behind Kiriloff at 1B. Don’t see any of them having a real opportunity there without big time injury.
  11. JD-TWINS
    Headrick - Balazovic - Deleon - (Maeda 3 weeks away) - Duran - Lopez - Thielbar (2 weeks away) - Stewart - Jax
  12. JD-TWINS
    Exactly!! That’s his major problem, he’s clueless or has nearly zero command. Cannot tube a fastball after 2 straight walks. Throw a middle/middle fastball to Heyward, 2 batters prior so you don’t walk him. Came into game with TWO OUTS. He gets behind in pressure situations and then caves & instead of throwing a strike to a spot he goes middle/middle and it gets rocked. Happens repeatedly. Some are comparing him to Jax. Jax has had some terrible breaks - he’s walked some guys in bad spots - but he’ll give up a run or not get a hold when needed but he doesn’t give up 2,3,or 4 runs & takes us out of a game.
  13. JD-TWINS
    Farmer has been under appreciated with his positional flexibility and clutch offensive performances from the start of the season. Since he’s taken Miranda’s spot, we’re 5-2 and he’s hitting around .400 with 2 homers. Agreed - FO brought in some guys that are essentially all contributing - Vazquez had 5 hits & a walk in his last 2 starts - Solano, like a lot of guys, is up & down but gives us a chance with experience in his role. Taylor has been steady & done everything we could expect!
  14. JD-TWINS
    20 guys in MLB hit over .290 last year (2022) & Arraez hit .316. Average over 4 seasons is .314 going into ‘23. If somebody is already on base, do you want a lifetime .198 hitter that hits a home run every one in sixteen AB’s and puts the ball in play 40% of the time OR a guy who gets on base 40% of the time and gets a hit 35% of the time. Runners score by advancing on bases! This is his 5th season as an excellent hitter not his 2nd month in some fluke year. The risk/reward for Gallo in a line-up can be rationalized but to help win games over a long 162 game schedule I don’t think many clubs would opt for Gallo v. Arraez. Arraez not scoring runs has to do with the mediocrity in the Marlin’s line-up behind him…..not because he’s not hitting the ball far enough!
  15. JD-TWINS
    He’s what we traded for…….a #2-#3 level starter. His change-up gets him lots of adulation around the league but his other stuff is good not great. He can’t miss with sweeper nor fastball.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Agree - Lopez has electric stuff but he is either clueless or has no guts due to lack of command. Cannot walk in the winning run, particularly after you load the bases on purpose. Kiriloff got screwed on balls & strikes and that was probably the difference. Had a real shot though with one out & an 0-2 count to Martinez. Morneau & most other astute baseball heads wanted an even higher 3rd fastball to Martinez but whoever is calling the game likes to see all of Duran’s pitch repertoire. We had him & he throws a breaking ball over middle of plate for an 0-2 single. Bad baseball!
  17. JD-TWINS
    Lewis is a luxury & I don’t expect to see him until he is excelling at AAA…….probably 5-6 weeks from now. Kiriloff has been a big shot in the arm. CC is coming around over last week with 4-5 doubles & a HR. A guy really lengthening the line-up is Farmer. No more issues at 3B over last 5 games and he’s 7-18 at the plate……Twins are 4-1 since his return! Gordon is getting playing time in CF regularly which was the plan until Polanco wasn’t ready. He’s getting his act together.
  18. JD-TWINS
    The Key - no! Timely Contributor - yes! Farmer has been 7 for 18 in his first 5 games back, displacing Miranda at 3B. He’s got a hustle double & a HR, while the Team has gone 4-1………Gallo has had back to back solid games…….Larnach reverted back to April 1st production………..CC has 4 doubles & a HR in last 5 games & is 7 for last 21……..Nick Gordon putting a charge into the ball every handful of AB’s.
  19. JD-TWINS
    95Mph may be “averageish” but it doesn’t mean it’s easy to hit. Middle/Middle is easy to hit. Varland obviously has good enough stuff to get MLB hitters out. He’s started a half-dozen or more games with decent results. Command is the key…….Maddux command is a big ask……just the ability to move the ball around helps a bunch. The thing I’d like to see Varland do is to take a page out of Ryan’s approach and throw some letter high fastballs both in & out. Ryan consistently is up in the zone with velocity & he works both sides of the plate with this. He throws high strikes not just Show pitches to set something up. If Varland could not only pound fastballs at the knees but also get some high strikes occasionally it would be very valuable. Easier said than done!
  20. JD-TWINS
    75% or more of the guys we face are RH. There’s no reason to force a pretty decent Platoon bat out of the line-up just to see if Kiriloff will succeed. He needs days off just like everybody else. No reason to abuse the wrist.
  21. JD-TWINS
    Making a move with prospects for an established pitcher made sense! I live in Cincinnati and see/saw Mahle as a mentally soft guy that gave up too many HR. It’s not the ballpark! He nibbles & walks guys or he’s trying to strike guys out & his pitch count balloons early, he tires, then the HR’s come. I would have given up anybody the Reds wanted, other than Lewis, for Castillo. Not 2nd guessing FO here, but the result of that would have been Castillo to Twins - no trade for Lopez - we retain Arraez. Probably would have spent $ on Castillo and maybe don’t sign CC? Anyway, we were trying to get better & got burned. CES, Steer, Lee, Lewis, Walner, Miranda, Martin, Larnach, Kiriloff, etc. - can only deal with so many prospects at once. Reasonable risk for Mahle type of arm.
  22. JD-TWINS
    I can’t imagine paying him more than $5M to rehab in ‘24 and something around $10M per year for 2 more years with some easily attained incentives that can make him interested - but we can’t tie up $15M per year if he’s not pitching and at least .500. He’s not that good & good money after bad doesn’t seem wise. Seems like a wasteful move with Mahle the more I consider. Gray, 2 years, for $23M per year. He pairs with Lopez - Ryan - Ober - Varland …..with Paddack competing with all 5 guys - still need depth going forward! When Gray is done at end of ‘25 we’ll have money for Ryan…..going to be paying Duran by then as well.
  23. JD-TWINS
    2 games later…….Farmer has 2 hits in first 2 games back, one being a homer. (….and I don’t have to see Miranda’s line) Gallo has hits in 2 consecutive games……one game he had 2 hits & a walk! CC has had big RBI doubles in 2 consecutive games. Kiriloff is contributing. Kepler hit another homer. ALL in last 2 games - it’s a long season and there are days we are going to look bad ……,,it’s just tough when everybody looks bad. Can’t change approach/line-up every 2-3 games just because somebody sucks for a day or two. Get a couple W’s v. Cubs this weekend & all is good!!
  24. JD-TWINS
    Gordon is 7 for last 21 I believe? Anyway, he’s coming around. He’s a good 7-8 guy at this point, if goes to lead-off he’s under the scope and pressured. Nobody needs that. Maybe in 2-3 weeks after a stretch of OK! Gallo & Gordon & Castro can share LF. Kepler & Gallo in RF. Gordon & Taylor share CF. Last night our 2-6 hitters all had at least one hit & a couple had 2! 2 of 3 Pinch hitters came through. Thought we could have had some smarter AB’s but overall more like a normal club.
  25. JD-TWINS
    So, I know everyone is excited about Kiriloff being in the lineup & the polished hitter he is. Me too. However, I was watching the game via stream in Charlotte & in the 6th Kepler leads off with a gritty 7 pitch at bat where he ends up making the first out on a tapper. Good AB though. Then CC comes up and fouls a couple pitches off and works a 6-7 pitch walk. Kiriloff comes up and swings at the first pitch and grounds out too short. We’re trying to work the pitch count up and get a good pitch to hit and he comes up anxious and swings at a curveball. Really bothered me at the time - just doesn’t seem like there’s situational awareness from him in that instance nor any from others, quite often. We’re tied in the 8th. Gordon PH and via some fine talent & good fortune he gets a hit (7 for last 21). Lead-off runner on in bottom of 8th & we have Duran in our pen. We need a one run lead - not a 3 run lead. Our fastest (lead-off) batter is up with speed at first …………gotta bunt Byron, even if coaches don’t have the stomach to ask/tell you to bunt. With Buxton’s speed & Gordon’s speed there’s tremendous pressure on the D………..instead we waste the base hit & get into an extra inning fiasco…..w/o ever applying any stress to San Diego. If you play for a run to win in 9th - play for one in 8th & end the game with Duran!
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