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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    I agree - he’s overhyped. Overhyped because people lean into his athleticism as being his primary value - stealing bases - gold glove defense - etc. He’s got raw power. He strikes out a bunch - most power guys in today’s game also strike out too much. The fact that you only see greatness a few weeks out of the year exemplifies why he should DH - so he plays more than his average of 74 games per year (excluding 2017). 130-135 games played with the heavy use of DH & regular rest seems to be a plan. Never tried it before. Gotta do something different other than just cross our fingers.
  2. JD-TWINS
    Agree! Again from me I see 60 games in CF & 70 games at DH & 30 games rest, where he pinch hits 10-12 times. 3.5AB’s per game plus 10 pinch hits = 465 AB’s minimum……….he’s in 140 games…….projects to 38HR & 30 doubles and hopefully, availability in October. Taylor in CF v. LH pitching for 40 games. This gives us supreme CF play for 100 games minimum. Gordon/Gallo in CF v. RH pitching 60 games - very adequate! Nothing directed at you MGX…….. He’s stolen 31 bases in the last 3.5 seasons (Covid 2020), that’s 9 stolen bases per year…..do we really care if he doubles his steals at the risk of screwing up a knee, because they made the bags 3” bigger? Rod Carew quit stealing bases to save his legs - seemed OK when he did it! We need adequate OF defense we don’t need Byron Buxton in CF to get outs……he’s played CF an average of 45% of the time in 7 of 8 seasons. How much money does Giancarlo Stanton make? What is Giancarlo Stanton’s strike out %? What type of power and dynamic bat does a healthy Giancarlo Stanton bring to the Yankees? How many Yankee fans would cringe if G. Stanton tried to steal a base or even play in the outfield? He’s built like an adonis. He gets hurt easily as well - a multitude of ailments. Just because Buxton is talented - fast - extremely athletic and is very entertaining to watch play CF & run bases, it doesn’t mean we should ignore the fact that he is easily injured. We need his bat and the “let’s run him out there and see what happens” approach is like following the definition of insanity!
  3. JD-TWINS
    This seems reasonable until Gordon is freed up to play CF v. RH pitching…….either with Polanco back or with Julien up to play 2B. Other scenario is Kiriloff is ready & Gallo mans CF. Don’t see Taylor playing v. RH pitching if there’s another option. Farmer may be lesser evil v. RH pitching than Taylor and they shift Miranda to 1B - Farmer to 3B - Gallo in CF.
  4. JD-TWINS
    If one adds Byron’s first seasons games (2015) and the Covid shortened season (2020) to be fair, and reduces his total seasons to 7 from 8……….other than 140 games (2017) one year he averages 74 games per season. If he only averages 46% of the starts over 6 seasons, including any DH turns he’s had in the past, his defense can’t be that terribly important to our success. Taking 74 games of defensive stats and projecting them over 162 games is fools gold. We need his BAT & not treating the situation differently after 8 years in the Show would not be very bright! Encouraging him to steal bases any time prior to October is flying in the face of injury risk mitigation - logic. Taylor 40 games in CF v. LH (Buck as DH x 40) Buxton 60 games in CF v. RH Gordon/Gallo 60 games in CF v. RH (Buck as DH x 30) Buxton rests 30 games & pinch hits 10 of those games……He’d be IN 140 games, nearly 2X what he’s been doing his whole career. I don’t think he DH’s early & then not later in the year…..I think he just plays no CF to start and then 10-11 games per month pace in CF starting in mid-April….DH throughout the year.
  5. JD-TWINS
    Larnach takes one roster spot. I’ve been down on Julien coming north since first mentioned. No AB’s above AA. I saw him bat v. Yankees for the first time on Friday. He looked like a professional hitter!! Got count to 3-2, fouled a pitch and then took the guy deep, about 390ft to left center. Very comfortable in the box! If he comes north it lets Gordon be freed up to play some CF. Also, Julien could DH v. RH pitching, replacing Kiriloff’s LH bat in the line-up. Not sure about this last roster spot though! Gordon - Farmer platoon v. RH pitching & LH pitching at 2B. If Miranda can’t throw, he DH’s & platoons with Gallo at 1B. Then Farmer plays 3B & Solano platoons with Gordon at 2B. Gallo at 1B v. RH pitching - Larnach in left - Kepler in right………..if Gordon is at 2B then Taylor has to play against RH pitching and batting #9………I guess Julien could play 1B & Gallo in CF. Hopefully, Polanco &/or Kiriloff are back in 2-4 weeks…….and it’s not a big deal.
  6. JD-TWINS
    Henriquez is hurt - hasn’t thrown for 3-4 weeks due to soreness above elbow. Sands is a good long relief option. ”…….Maeda if he can’t get back to pitching 6-7 innings w/o giving up more than 2-3 runs……..” I don’t know if he’s ever been this good?? Pretty tall order! 6 1/3 innings pitched and 2 runs = 2.84 ERA & 7 innings pitched and 3 runs = 3.85 ERA……hope he can approach this type of success.
  7. JD-TWINS
    I like 92 win total! The staff is a bit above average. Starters are more talented (durability?) than Pen, but if a couple guys step up we could be excellent there as well. Larnach - Gordon - Farmer - Polanco - Vazquez - Buxton - Correa - Miranda - Kiriloff can all hit…… Gordon/Farmer/Jeffers/Solano/Taylor/Gallo & Kepler can all be productive when facing pitchers throwing from opposite side. I don’t understand the concern about our offense.
  8. JD-TWINS
    While I too disagree about trading Polanco .270 career BA - can’t do it after 33 HR………….but to Tampa Bay, he is expensive!!
  9. JD-TWINS
    Piggyback Maeda & Ober. 6 starters just puts more stress on the bullpen daily. I get the theory that the extra day or two between starts would suggest a starter would last longer into each start. It’s still facing a line-up a third time in 90 minutes. I think this is fools gold……the extra 2/3 - 1 inning more out of every starter - 6 of them, so that we can trim the Pen to 7 guys. If Maeda needs to start v. being long man in Pen then he should start every 5th day with the goal being 3-5 innings…….if he struggles, somebody from Pen works out of the inning & then Ober starts a fresh inning & finishes the game. So Ober is throwing 5 innings or less per outing. Between them they cover 8-9 innings based on the quality of Maeda’s start. Occasionally, a closer may be used for an inning or less. This approach allows Maeda to build-up his arm through June. This approach allows Twins to use Ober regularly and not waste his innings in St. Paul. This approach essentially gives the Pen a day off every 5th day, allowing for a 7 man Pen. My first preference is Ober as 5th starter and Maeda in long relief. It appears there is an impass with Maeda’s contract and the Twins feel they need to honor letting him start games…………re-work his deal ASAP & do the right thing for the Club!
  10. JD-TWINS
    If they win 10 games in a row in April it makes losing 10 in a row in August, palatable. Losing games later in the season make fans more anxious…..they all count the same. More room for continued optimism after losing games early……that’s the difference. The appearance to people, means the fans, & can’t worry about managing the club for the fans. IMO
  11. JD-TWINS
    Understand the skepticism with Pen but this seems a bit over the top………it’s like listing the line-up and stating why each guy COULD hit under .220……In a group of 9-11 guys there will be some disappointments, but I think we can start with just Pagán & López as the suspect choices in our Pen. These two have been targets for replacement in my comments at TD for 3-4 months. The bullpens 2nd half resurgence was, in my opinion, due to getting rid of under-performers (Smith - Duffey - etc.) as well as, the Pen’s ability to rack up smooth, stress-free, innings from late August through September after the crunch of being in first place. Pagan & López have good stuff, but in my opinion, they don’t have the mental toughness nor the intestinal fortitude to pitch in big spots. I know López had a nice 3 months plus last year in Baltimore……lost 2 games to Twins before the trade. His 6 year history is brutal. Within throwing their exceptional stuff they both groove fastballs routinely. Frankly, am struggling that Hoffman is in the mix for a roster spot as well. Somebody has to pitch well - or Ok at least. I’m assuming that’s a healthy Alcala - Jax - Moran - Thielbar - Durán - maybe Winder/Sands - López/Pagán??? Am hoping for an adjustment in management thinking and we see SWR & Balazovic in relief sooner than later if there’s a need.
  12. JD-TWINS
    You got it flipped ……Gordon v. RH pitching & Farmer v. LH pitching. The Castro ability to play 2B & OF may have some traction but he needs to hit as well! Solano’s last 4 years v. LH pitching is awfully solid…….I think they give him an opportunity to play some 2B or 1B v. LH pitching in the Show.
  13. JD-TWINS
    Movement & seeming quick to batters is how I assumed your “overpowering” comment was meant. Swings & misses! Good article. Even though it may have felt like it, Bundy & Archer didn’t start 2/3 of our games in ‘22……...maybe 50 games or so, 30%?
  14. JD-TWINS
    Our roster is built to take advantage of the Left - Right platoon players we have. Can’t get lost on whether we are in the road or not. If Miranda plays as well on the road, better than others, …….and he’s in the line-up most everyday……rest him at home more than on the road - common sense!
  15. JD-TWINS
    Wild guess….92-70…..can’t see injuries being a big issue again with the current depth. Relief corp is biggest concern. Just hope that either couple guys improve dramatically, or we don’t waste a bunch of chances on Pagan & López. Nobody has gold glove OF & former starting SS as depth, platoon players……it’s common here to read about how poor the FO is doing……not sure they shouldn’t be getting pretty high praise for the 26 man we’re starting with in ‘23! Good fortune with the Farmer acquisition & the CC falling into our lap, yep……as they say, you make your own good fortune.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Maeda out of the Pen for long relief seems to be logical (back from TJ surgery) with Ober at #5 starter. Ober, more than likely runs out of gas by mid-July/Aug. 1. Throughout July, if having success, we can stretch out Maeda. Maeda works 2-3 innings a couple times per week April - June to ease him back. Ready to start in August, if needed. Contract issues seem to make this approach with Maeda unfair to him/impossible. I say, do what’s best for team to win. If we need to show good faith to Maeda and to players in general, re-do his contract so incentives make sense for both parties & he can comfortably be used where needed. The money he can realistically earn from his incentives is around $3-3.5M. Give him $2.75 and remove incentives or target them to relief innings, etc. Other plausible approach is to have Maeda start every 5th day and plan on Ober, coming in with a clean inning, to pitch the back half of the game. They both get innings lowered but essentially eliminate Bull Pen use every 5th start. May need a reliever to bridge from one guy to the other in middle of the game. That’s typically going to be an out or two. This is a way to keep their innings down to 20 innings per month so they are still fresh when August starts. Also, the Pen is getting refreshed every 5th day so carrying only 7 relievers can work.
  17. JD-TWINS
    Exactly! Also, we got Solano to load up the line-up with RH batters v. LH pitching. Farmer - 3B, Solano - 2B, & Miranda 1B……..at least some combination of these 3 guys at these 3 positions v. LH pitching. Gordon daily v. RH pitching. Polanco back soon we hope.
  18. JD-TWINS
    It seems then, that they played him there this spring purposefully…….. Gordon will be at 2B v. every RH pitcher we face until Polanco is back healthy. I think Solano at 2B v. LH pitching with Farmer at 3B & Miranda at 1B. If Polo was limping with a sleeve on his knee and skipping workouts 14 days prior to Opening Day he will not be ready. Need to make an adjustment of expectations. Larnach takes Polanco’s spot in roster and plays a little LF but is the regular DH v. RH pitching.
  19. JD-TWINS
    Have other LH bats ahead of him….if a couple guys are hurt, then Julien may get a shot! Solano isn’t, as you said, a viable bat against RH pitching.
  20. JD-TWINS
    Interesting to see how this DH spot will be managed in ‘23 - my slant here….details below. Seems IF Polanco & Kiriloff are both OK to go Opening Day, Larnach will be off the roster. Taylor - Farmer - Solano - are all platoon options/starters v. LH pitching that add emergency depth, if absolutely necessary, v. RH pitching. Solano isn’t an everyday DH on this club. If Larnach isn’t on the roster due to good health with other expected everyday starters, v. RH pitching, Kiriloff is at 1B - Gallo - Buxton - Kepler in OF - Gordon at DH………Larnach is the LH hitting DH if on the roster………I do see Buxton at DH for 50 games (30 plus in ‘22). When Buxton DH’s v. RH pitching Gordon plays CF. When Buxton rests v. RH pitching, Gordon plays CF. Not sure why Miranda would have had a role at DH and you say his arm issues may reduce that opportunity? Seems maybe the opposite would be true. Taylor & Buxton being in OF at same time doesn’t make sense since they are both all-star defenders in CF. Taylor starts in CF 40 games v. LH starters & Buxton is DH in those games. ……..(Gallo-Gordon-Kepler) OF v. RH starters for 40 games while Buxton DH’s 10 or so & rests the other 30 games. v. LH starter Gallo-Taylor-Kepler in OF - Infield is Jeffers C - Farmer 3B - CC SS - Solano 2B - Miranda 1B - Buxton DH Buxton - 50 games at DH Gordon/Larnach combo - 50 games at DH Miranda - 10 games at DH Gallo - 20 games at DH Polanco/Correa combo - 20 games Solano - 10 games That’s no AB’s at DH for Walner, Lewis, or Julien………gotta assume there will be an injury or three & things will change.
  21. JD-TWINS
    Guys get hurt playing sports - everyday somebody gets nicked. A batted ball off a pitchers leg is typically not a big deal. Farmer - Solano - Gordon have 2B covered w/o Polanco, if necessary. Kiriloff seems to be hitting live pitching which I think is the big potential deterrent from him being ready Opening Day. Unless something changes, it appears he’ll be ready. Let’s see how Kepler feels in a day or two…..Larnach is up before Walner but it’s probably neither of them. If Polanco can’t go they’ll roster Larnach for Opening Day. It’s not a wasted season quite yet!
  22. JD-TWINS
    Who should Durán pitch to……the Invisible Man?
  23. JD-TWINS
    If Lee & Lewis can play 2nd & 3rd and hit 20 HR each with similar output from CC, we’ll be pretty good! With Larnach & Kiriloff both on the cusp of everyday line-up guys along with Buxton & Walner, we have 20 HR power throughout the line-up, including DH going forward. Miranda is at this level of power as well! If Gordon gets 525 AB’s he projects to 38 doubles & 13 HR……gotta play v. RH starters. Julien is going to have to be really good to play regularly in ‘24. ‘24, fresh, 13 man everyday guys: Buxton - Correa - Lewis - Lee - Kiriloff - Larnach - Gordon - Vazquez - Jeffries - Farmer (under contract) - Walner - Miranda - Julien ……about $70M total for 13 position players. Solano - Gallo - Taylor - Polanco - Kepler (about $36M replaced by $3.8M) all gone regardless of success due to inexpensive talent push behind them. Don’t see room for Sobato. Rodriguez during the year possibly. Focus spending on extending &/or FA pitching. 6 RH hitters - 6 LH hitters - 1 both. At least 9 of them with 20 HR power. As far as additions to Top 5, I think Julien has a chance to get to 20 HR power because of his selectiveness and probability to see good pitches to hit……may not get nearly enough AB’s?
  24. JD-TWINS
    What position do we trade for, other than pitching at the deadline? Where are our everyday player holes? How many Mark Bellangers or Ernie Banks do we need? We have CC for 6 years and 4-5 SS prospects behind him. We have a couple 2B prospects. We have Kiriloff - Julien - Miranda at 1B. Gordon - Larnach - Buxton - Martin - Rodriguez Walner for young OF options, among others. We gotta be out of it and Gray pitching well for teams to be interested in him & Twins to be interested. I don’t see a scenario where Gray is pitching regularly and 2 other rookies that are now #7 & #8 in our starting pitching rotation are shoving Gray out the door. Anything is possible. Trading a good veteran pitcher for hopefully good prospect pitching is a risky thing.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Seems your comments are obvious! You don’t trade guys that got you into contention and nobody wants guys that aren’t performing. Pitchers - Catchers - Outfielders……playing well, we keep you. It seems odd to me that the discussions about moving veterans at the deadline in these forums are assumed to be like trading guys in a fantasy league. It’s not easy to make trades…..particularly for guys your team wants to trade! Teams that aren’t competitive trade assets to build up young/cheap players for their future. Teams that are in the mix trade young guys/prospects for players that may put them over the hump. We don’t need more prospects other than pitchers……..Personally, I see us being competitive in late July & our only potential need being a bullpen arm. We aren’t trading for everyday players in the middle of the season. We have a substantial pipeline of guys. Gallo will have to hit 40 HR’s for the Twins to risk giving him a QO. They’d be better off extending him 3 years at $16M a year….never thought I’d say that about Gallo but 40 HR’s is pretty high value. If he wants to leave - great! Nobody is paying Kenta $20M plus!!!! If he pitches well - which doesn’t mean he’s dominant - offer him a couple years at $10.5M/yr. Great depth guy if he’s healthy. If Gray has a good year he’s gone. QO him if he has ERA under 3.40 - double digit wins. He’ll need that to get someone to pursue him for multi-year deal. Mahle…..silly to QO him if he isn’t pitching well since he’ll take the $20M (overpaid) and use it as an audition year to get a FA deal for ‘25……If he does pitch well, he’s healthy……worth a 3 year $23/yr deal offered in July. Extending Mahle 3 yrs. and López 2 yrs. during the year this year makes great sense. Those 2 with Ryan & Paddack and a couple of our young guys & we’re good through ‘26.
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