JD-TWINS

Kuechel is obviously a stretch - pretty easy to take a flyer on him with a minor league deal. Fingers crossed! An organization is rolling the dice with a long & costly deal with any pitcher/athlete. (see B. Buxton) When it’s done with a guy that on paper should have 3-4 good years left (by age) it’s something that good teams try. Burnes, as an example, appears that he’ll hold up physically to eat innings at a minimum. He obviously competes and that’s another positive check mark. There’s no magic on how many or which chance to take. Can spend Gray/Mahle $ to afford him. I do think, that good teams take a chance or 3 on every roster. CC is one - Buxton has become two - a guy like Burnes may be too much risk or he might win 60% of his starts for 3 years? Maybe we sign Gray for 2 more years at $23M/year? With Ober/Ryan/Varland/Lopez and the $ reduction of $12M on dropping Mahle, we could re-run this year’s staff and we add Paddack for no extra $. Is Gray worth the risk at 34 & 35 years of age? Have learned some in the TD Forum about this QO and it seems to be an obvious move for Gray. We could get a pick and then use his $ & Mahle’s $ to extend Ryan & maybe Ober late season next year? Hoping for a less costly FA starter - probably no such thing with the same upside of Gray.

We need players that can play. Taylor & Kepler & Castro can play. Gallo is a personal preference type of choice - I see just a sliver of value. Looking at youth & hoping they’ll be able to play is chasing one’s tail. There’s always young guys with promise…..last year it was Larnach - etc. If Celestino didn’t prove with his chance in ‘22 that he cannot play I don’t know what else he needs to do?

OK - trading your starting CF when you are in first place and have the 3rd weakest schedule left in MLB doesn’t seem to make sense. #4-5 in MLB pitching stats……..Why punt? There is zero market for Gallo. Veteran presence (flexible & sound Defense) with the power threat v. an up & comer…….FO gotta make a decision. Don’t often release guys on teams in the playoff mix. Kepler, as much as I hate to admit it, plays an excellent RF (shown often in past couple weeks) and his numbers are not anywhere near DFA numbers. A couple weeks ago - maybe a week ago I wanted to DFA him but his OPS is league average - he looks like he’s going to hit 22-24 HR in 130 games - batting average working from .208 up toward .235 or better - very good defense…….these all stack up to a starting RF…..I don’t like it much but it’s real! If we’re competitive and have a decent staff we need to buy. Can’t jettison the roster vets just to see what may happen! Solano - Farmer - Castro have been glue guys most of the year. Buy: An OF piece maybe - Relief help I like moving whoever we need to get Friedel from Cincinnati. They have multiple pieces with Encarnacion-Strand & others in the wings at AAA. Left handed hitting - fast - everyday CF v. RH pitching - high energy. Can’t imagine they will entertain moving him but they need pitching now & in future. Better OF & hitter than Castro with similar speed on bases. I offer Winder & Varland so the Reds get controllable pieces and more than one option to hit on with two arms……,.,Maybe SWR & Winder & Maeda? ……….I know Varland is young & has an upside but so does Friedel! Gotta give value to get value. Friedel would be a reach but an ideal piece. Better base runner - better OF - better hitter than Nick Gordon.

Shake yourself…..Buxton can’t play everyday. Kepler can’t play everyday. Who would you rather have in the 6th or later to Pinch Hit against a RH reliever, Miranda or Wallner? I’m not in love with Wallner but Miranda looks like a teenager playing MLB since 3rd week of the season. Lewis doesn’t/didn’t play everyday. Wallner - Taylor - Kepler - Gallo are all OF with Castro in a swing spot between OF & IF. Solano - Farmer - CC - Julien - Kirilloff are all IF with Castro in a swing spot between IF & OF. Vazquez - Jeffers Buxton Pretty straightforward.

Wallner gets AB at PH, DH, and playing RF. Better off having Castro or Solano at 3B and opening a spot for Wallner on the roster………Miranda’s defense (in a snapshot to be fair) isn’t a replacement for Lewis at 3B either. We have 3B covered with Farmer/Castro/Solano.

IF Julien could play 3B we would have seen him there previously……..can’t wait for Polanco to come back to move Miranda…..that could be another month. Option Miranda & bring up Wallner to see if he’s still MLB ready for the 2nd half. The guys below, with Polanco coming, are just fine for our infield. Julien/Farmer/Solano at 2B Farmer/Castro/Solano at 3B CC gets 5 out of next 8 days off - should help his back. Kind of surprised there’s little to no talk of the fact that he has a brace on lower back in dugout all the time - assumption is it provides heat as well. His bat sure looks like it has heated up last 3 weeks - particularly last 6 games & ability to go hard the other way!!

Agreed - he’s gotta go. Tapping rollers to 2B & popping up & playing defense worse or on par with Solano. Can’t be on roster. Send him to AA & get some confidence rolling. Maybe wake him up a little as well not being across the river from the Big Club.

I saw in the re-cap that he had 74 of 100 pitches for strikes, which is your point, but 25 …….1 of every 4 were called strikes. Gotta be moving the ball around & fooling guys with stuff around the black all night. Very impressive regardless of the competition!!

As a guy who’s called for Max being DFA’d more than once this year…….if you go deeper than the occasional eye test and look at the numbers presented Wallner isn’t as good, & Max is reasonable. I watch most every game and Kepler’s defense in the last week probably out shines anything Wallner could do in 5 years. There’s value in that even though it’s tough to remember when Max taps out to the second baseman. If he can stay at average OPS of .730 - hit 24 HR’s in 130 games - hit .235 plus, with his defense, he should start v. every RH we face and probably against half the LH as well. He may well exceed these expectations. Clubhouse positive is part of why he’s been kept - gotta be with his tenure. If he keeps playing at the pace we’ve seen lately they will definitely pick up his option for ‘24. …….gotta say that part of his problem is staying healthy but some seems to be between his ears - sure seems his mind is right over past couple weeks on O & D…..big hits & big catches!!

He gets one - maybe two more starts. Slow grounders to 2B & pop ups in the infield are no way to work your way back into the line-up. Errors and wild throws over 3-4 games don’t help either. Gotta let Castro & Farmer cover 3B and get Wallner in Miranda’s spot after the break.

Guys on MLB Network…….I saw a comparison of Arraez to Gallo maybe 6 weeks ago. Gallo was hitting around .225 but much better power numbers. It was interesting “runs generation” analysis. Brian Kenney had to yield to the .410 BA but it took 15 minutes of back & forth. Gallo was making contact about 29% of the time at that point - by my memory. The national pundits are united in the lack of interest in BA. I saw this morning in a TD article that if CC was hitting .270 …….much closer to his ‘22 BA of .291 that his OPS would be above 800. His power numbers mirror ‘22 or are close but his .220 BA drags his OPS down close to 700. This comparison of CC’s ‘22 & ‘23 seem to make it obvious that BA has a big effect on overall run generation.

Sure doesn’t sound like much of a leading performance!

Within physical boundaries (reasonable rest) & mental expectations (maturity) the Manager inserts players and PLAYERS make things happen or not. Strategic decisions fall on the Manager but hitting a ball or not looking foolish trying to hit a ball or not throwing into the middle/middle of the plate are ALL driven by the players. There’s no accountability to the manager that a $35M/yr player can’t hit - leads the league in batted into double plays!! Buxton has fantastic exit velocity over past 15-20 AB’s - CC has approximately 7-8 hits in past 4 games - Kepler is playing inspired defense and has had two 2-hit games in past 4 - Gallo is contributing………they all didn’t just react to Baldelli’s taking accountability for their play. It may be we’ve run across some just “OK pitching” but it appears that hitting with 2 strikes is glaringly better over the past 4 games……adjustment by hitters.

Experience is a big deal - confidence is even a bigger deal if paired with experience………he seems to have both right now. He could be a nice shot in the arm, innings eater in August/September as a starter. He could be the long reliever as well. With his kind of stuff, it seems you may only want guys to see him once? He’s Maeda with less velocity. He does/did have a nice sinking fastball at on point. Once he’s up he can’t be sent down without someone else claiming him. If he’s successful in St. Paul over the next 3-4 weeks I would expect they’ll make a spot for him……for no other reason, just to keep others fresh.

I do/did like Burnes for $25 million per year for 4 years or maybe even a little more money. This move was in order to not have to trade for a pitcher. Keeping Arraez allows the organization to trade a high ranking prospect……plus a guy like SWR. Say we traded Lee & SWR & we didn’t have Lopez but still had Arraez hitting .320 plus Burnes under contract - better off? Burnes, while a professional, is pissed off at an organization that has shown him no respect in the recent arbitration process. I believe that is part of the results the Brewers are getting on some small level. Players peaks & valleys all vary - I get that piece of your argument - seems obvious. Verlander’s comeback, or at least a good piece of it, is due to his sitting for well over a season and the benefits of having a rejuvenated attitude & right arm after Tommy John surgery.

With the offensive stats spread between Miranda & Wallner in St. Paul, I really thought that they would live with Farmer/Castro/Julien/Solano to cover 3B & 2B and let Wallner get maybe 3 starts between now & the break. Couple starts at DH & 1 in RF. With Kepler & Gallo contributing once or twice per week, I don’t see either of them going anywhere. Unfortunately! Surely seems like Wallner should get an opportunity, particularly with the consistently blah results we are getting across the river.

We have plenty of infield coverage with Farmer - Julien - Castro - Solano……..get Wallner up for the 6 games at home prior to Break! He can start in RF once & DH a couple times. Great opportunity!

Hoping Kepler - Buxton - Gallo - Kirilloff are somewhere on the July list!!!!

The consistency, along with a few high points from each, have proven the FO acquiring Farmer - Castro - Solano - Stewart were all very astute. Arraez v. Lopez: Do we think as a group that if Arraez was hitting .325 or even .298 that we wouldn’t have so much to be embarrassed about? I hear pundits on TV & written contributors at TD state that we got the bad end of this trade because Luis is flirting with .400. Am fairly sure he was hitting .365 last year in late July…….he had a .316 career BA after ‘22. He lead the AL in BA last year. His productivity & high average are no surprise. The level of his productivity will come down just like CC’s will go up. Arraez is a great hitter and will remain so - we made a decision to trade that very difficult to replicate skill, and get a solid pitcher to help us be more competitive every 5th day. Our “W total” isn’t hinged on Arraez having a down year & us being perceived to have won a trade! No embarrassment if he hits .410 - hope he does. Lopez is grinding & trying to get better……we have him for 3.5 years more at a minimum & I expect good things. Here’s to good health for both!!

If Gallo can continue on the 7-8 homers per month pace, we can put up with the .190 average & 40% strikeout rate. His defensive depth potential at 3 positions can’t be overlooked. If CC gets his yearly average up to .245-.250 (30 plus points) he will have been an effective hitter in the 2nd half. Vazquez getting to his career average of “only .270” is a pretty unrealistic ask. Pretty sure the league BA is under .240 & he’s hitting .225 now……..if he can get to .250 it would be a big shot in the arm……he’d have to hit near .280 for the 2nd half. Solano has 3 HR - nobody complaining about his power - Vázquez getting XBH isn’t important as he’s the slowest individual on the team. Less double plays & some more hits with RISP would be nice. ALL 3 have plenty of time to get their numbers up to reasonable for the season. These guys hitting their career averages will help us win ballgames v. the first half underperforming.

Looks very accurate! Hopefully, Maeda will be in the mix for July honors! Getting Stewart & Thielbar healthy & effective by August 1 could be a really big deal for the club. Headrick - Moran - Balazovic - Jax - Duran - Ortega?…….Stewart - Thielbar looks pretty good for stretch run! Gray has to get to 5 2/3 regularly to get a chance for some wins. “Most underrated” - Bailey Ober……nothing but super consistent!!!

CC - Kepler - Buxton are obviously root problem ………all the other stuff is just noise. Polanco out over 50% of the time doesn’t help!! Gallo is being Gallo - no surprise. On paper, based on career histories, we were a well put together roster! Baldelli doesn’t bat - FO isn’t striking out at record setting numbers. Pitching has held up - new guys are OK - core of Kepler - CC - Buxton are what’s dragging us down!!! Miranda sucked - Gallo experiment has not been a positive - Shift elimination has dropped Kepler’s average 35 points instead of bumping it 35 points - CC & Buxton have flashes of ability every 6-10 games. Vazquez has disappeared. I don’t see how any of this is FO problem. DFA or bench Kepler - DFA or bench Gallo - CC & Buxton to the IL until after the Break or until end of July. Change is needed.

It’s subtle, but I have to agree that while personalities are all different, there does seem to be a lack of “want to” in the line-up. Unfortunately, Polanco - Kepler - Gallo all seem to fit the laid back view to the game & the results……….pretty subjective but that’s what it looks like. In the FIVE THINGS - Kepler has to be rolled into the report of underperformance! 1) Walner/Julien playing a combination of RF - 2B - DH v. RH pitching seems to be a positive in the near-term. 2) Buxton to the IL through the break or even the month of July. Spot for Walner. 3) Kepler as a bench guy, at best, in case an OF emergency. 4) Larnach to replace, a DFA’d or a traded Gallo for some salary relief for whoever we trade him to, need to do to facilitate a trade. We may get zero return and just need to cover 70% of his salary through September. He’s got more defensive flexibility and value than Kepler but there’s a sentimental attachment with Kepler that is less with Gallo. Really should move or DFA both - one would be a move in right direction! 5) Polanco’s health needs to be determined. If he needs through July, then make the move to longer IL stint. Julien/Farmer/Castro can handle 2B well enough. 6) Give CC a break from (IL) from July 5 through the All-Star break. Piece SS together between Farmer/Castro for 10 games. 7) Don’t ever play Solano at 2B again - a personal pet peeve. 8) Larnach at DH if Julien & Walner are both playing D v. RH pitching. Gotta make some changes……Kepler - Gallo - Buxton - CC are the obvious guys to shift from starting line-up……..some for a brief time. NICE ARTICLE …….I too have confidence that we can hold it together in 2nd half with pitching. Lopez & Ober deserve better luck & if healthy, Maeda - Gray - Ryan will keep grinding! Hopefully, Varland can help keep guys fresh. Strikeouts matter!! Gotta change approach.

How can Walner perform at a lesser level? I don’t think he’s going to hit .280 but he can certainly hit the occasional surprise HR every 6-10 games and butcher up opportunities with RISP……….the difference is at the same time he’s gaining experience. Max has had more than reasonable opportunity!!! We’re to the point of the definition for insanity with Max & Joey……..same approach expecting a different outcome…….it doesn’t change - still nuts this week, just like last week!

He’s fragile. He’s a blah hitter to watch when he isn’t hot for a 1-3 day window. He swings from the heels too much - that is who he is. Hence back spasms. Hardest hit ball in the game through the 5th inning the other day and it was a ground ball of his to short…….when he squares it, that’s exciting. All of this was easier to take when he played CF, OR when he wasn’t on the field and we all could just reminisce about his catches and drives into the gaps or into the seats. ………he averaged SITTING 54% of the time in 7 of 8 seasons…….we’ve done lots of reminiscing & romancing of Byron Buxton.