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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    The League norm is just under 5.5 innings. There’s a reasonable chance we can get 6 innings per outing 3 of 4 outings from each of our guys, except maybe Maeda? An outing of 4 innings due to troubles every 4th start is probably reasonable. That’s 22 innings over 4 starts which = 5.5 innings per start. Probably a reasonable Staff goal.
  2. JD-TWINS
    League average per start is around 5.4 innings - not going to look it up but that’s close. Our TEAM average last year was around 5.1 innings (close). So about 1 out short of the league average per game. Correct me if I’m considerably off. 1 out per game under the league average is 162 total outs/27 outs per game = 6 games worth of innings over the season the Pen has to carry. Actually, much more significant than I would have thought!
  3. JD-TWINS
    Right - guys that are pitching well - look strong - have command, they keep pitching.
  4. JD-TWINS
    I’d really like to see Larnach stick on big club! If Polanco & Kiriloff come back there’s not a roster spot with Gallo & Kepler & Gordon in front of him. Maybe they cut Solano if Larnach is really playing well? Encouraged with Kepler’s spring hitting - not terrible! Hoping for .250 from him with a bunch of doubles.
  5. JD-TWINS
    The BOLD predictions look great to me! 1) Ryan can win 17 pitching against the 3-5 rotation guy of our competitors. If he keeps his walks in line, his stuff is supposed to be improved so he’s got a shot! He’s capable of a sub 3.40 ERA as well. 2) If Gallo gets his 125 starts and the fans don’t get down in him he can hit 35 HR. He just hit 19 in his worst year ever! 3) Durán makes All-Star team if he is just OK in the first half with his stats from last year - often times, what you did last year helps you attain All-star status. 4) Hoping for 60 games in CF & 70 games at DH…….crossing fingers on this one!!!
  6. JD-TWINS
    How many reps does Kirk Cousins take in the pre-season? He isn’t coming up with reasons not to play - he’s a fragile, elite athlete. It sucks but get used to it - not changing. We need a new approach to keep him available in October. Let’s see where it goes.
  7. JD-TWINS
    I agree - he’s overhyped. Overhyped because people lean into his athleticism as being his primary value - stealing bases - gold glove defense - etc. He’s got raw power. He strikes out a bunch - most power guys in today’s game also strike out too much. The fact that you only see greatness a few weeks out of the year exemplifies why he should DH - so he plays more than his average of 74 games per year (excluding 2017). 130-135 games played with the heavy use of DH & regular rest seems to be a plan. Never tried it before. Gotta do something different other than just cross our fingers.
  8. JD-TWINS
    Agree! Again from me I see 60 games in CF & 70 games at DH & 30 games rest, where he pinch hits 10-12 times. 3.5AB’s per game plus 10 pinch hits = 465 AB’s minimum……….he’s in 140 games…….projects to 38HR & 30 doubles and hopefully, availability in October. Taylor in CF v. LH pitching for 40 games. This gives us supreme CF play for 100 games minimum. Gordon/Gallo in CF v. RH pitching 60 games - very adequate! Nothing directed at you MGX…….. He’s stolen 31 bases in the last 3.5 seasons (Covid 2020), that’s 9 stolen bases per year…..do we really care if he doubles his steals at the risk of screwing up a knee, because they made the bags 3” bigger? Rod Carew quit stealing bases to save his legs - seemed OK when he did it! We need adequate OF defense we don’t need Byron Buxton in CF to get outs……he’s played CF an average of 45% of the time in 7 of 8 seasons. How much money does Giancarlo Stanton make? What is Giancarlo Stanton’s strike out %? What type of power and dynamic bat does a healthy Giancarlo Stanton bring to the Yankees? How many Yankee fans would cringe if G. Stanton tried to steal a base or even play in the outfield? He’s built like an adonis. He gets hurt easily as well - a multitude of ailments. Just because Buxton is talented - fast - extremely athletic and is very entertaining to watch play CF & run bases, it doesn’t mean we should ignore the fact that he is easily injured. We need his bat and the “let’s run him out there and see what happens” approach is like following the definition of insanity!
  9. JD-TWINS
    This seems reasonable until Gordon is freed up to play CF v. RH pitching…….either with Polanco back or with Julien up to play 2B. Other scenario is Kiriloff is ready & Gallo mans CF. Don’t see Taylor playing v. RH pitching if there’s another option. Farmer may be lesser evil v. RH pitching than Taylor and they shift Miranda to 1B - Farmer to 3B - Gallo in CF.
  10. JD-TWINS
    If one adds Byron’s first seasons games (2015) and the Covid shortened season (2020) to be fair, and reduces his total seasons to 7 from 8……….other than 140 games (2017) one year he averages 74 games per season. If he only averages 46% of the starts over 6 seasons, including any DH turns he’s had in the past, his defense can’t be that terribly important to our success. Taking 74 games of defensive stats and projecting them over 162 games is fools gold. We need his BAT & not treating the situation differently after 8 years in the Show would not be very bright! Encouraging him to steal bases any time prior to October is flying in the face of injury risk mitigation - logic. Taylor 40 games in CF v. LH (Buck as DH x 40) Buxton 60 games in CF v. RH Gordon/Gallo 60 games in CF v. RH (Buck as DH x 30) Buxton rests 30 games & pinch hits 10 of those games……He’d be IN 140 games, nearly 2X what he’s been doing his whole career. I don’t think he DH’s early & then not later in the year…..I think he just plays no CF to start and then 10-11 games per month pace in CF starting in mid-April….DH throughout the year.
  11. JD-TWINS
    Larnach takes one roster spot. I’ve been down on Julien coming north since first mentioned. No AB’s above AA. I saw him bat v. Yankees for the first time on Friday. He looked like a professional hitter!! Got count to 3-2, fouled a pitch and then took the guy deep, about 390ft to left center. Very comfortable in the box! If he comes north it lets Gordon be freed up to play some CF. Also, Julien could DH v. RH pitching, replacing Kiriloff’s LH bat in the line-up. Not sure about this last roster spot though! Gordon - Farmer platoon v. RH pitching & LH pitching at 2B. If Miranda can’t throw, he DH’s & platoons with Gallo at 1B. Then Farmer plays 3B & Solano platoons with Gordon at 2B. Gallo at 1B v. RH pitching - Larnach in left - Kepler in right………..if Gordon is at 2B then Taylor has to play against RH pitching and batting #9………I guess Julien could play 1B & Gallo in CF. Hopefully, Polanco &/or Kiriloff are back in 2-4 weeks…….and it’s not a big deal.
  12. JD-TWINS
    Henriquez is hurt - hasn’t thrown for 3-4 weeks due to soreness above elbow. Sands is a good long relief option. ”…….Maeda if he can’t get back to pitching 6-7 innings w/o giving up more than 2-3 runs……..” I don’t know if he’s ever been this good?? Pretty tall order! 6 1/3 innings pitched and 2 runs = 2.84 ERA & 7 innings pitched and 3 runs = 3.85 ERA……hope he can approach this type of success.
  13. JD-TWINS
    I like 92 win total! The staff is a bit above average. Starters are more talented (durability?) than Pen, but if a couple guys step up we could be excellent there as well. Larnach - Gordon - Farmer - Polanco - Vazquez - Buxton - Correa - Miranda - Kiriloff can all hit…… Gordon/Farmer/Jeffers/Solano/Taylor/Gallo & Kepler can all be productive when facing pitchers throwing from opposite side. I don’t understand the concern about our offense.
  14. JD-TWINS
    While I too disagree about trading Polanco .270 career BA - can’t do it after 33 HR………….but to Tampa Bay, he is expensive!!
  15. JD-TWINS
    Piggyback Maeda & Ober. 6 starters just puts more stress on the bullpen daily. I get the theory that the extra day or two between starts would suggest a starter would last longer into each start. It’s still facing a line-up a third time in 90 minutes. I think this is fools gold……the extra 2/3 - 1 inning more out of every starter - 6 of them, so that we can trim the Pen to 7 guys. If Maeda needs to start v. being long man in Pen then he should start every 5th day with the goal being 3-5 innings…….if he struggles, somebody from Pen works out of the inning & then Ober starts a fresh inning & finishes the game. So Ober is throwing 5 innings or less per outing. Between them they cover 8-9 innings based on the quality of Maeda’s start. Occasionally, a closer may be used for an inning or less. This approach allows Maeda to build-up his arm through June. This approach allows Twins to use Ober regularly and not waste his innings in St. Paul. This approach essentially gives the Pen a day off every 5th day, allowing for a 7 man Pen. My first preference is Ober as 5th starter and Maeda in long relief. It appears there is an impass with Maeda’s contract and the Twins feel they need to honor letting him start games…………re-work his deal ASAP & do the right thing for the Club!
  16. JD-TWINS
    If they win 10 games in a row in April it makes losing 10 in a row in August, palatable. Losing games later in the season make fans more anxious…..they all count the same. More room for continued optimism after losing games early……that’s the difference. The appearance to people, means the fans, & can’t worry about managing the club for the fans. IMO
  17. JD-TWINS
    Understand the skepticism with Pen but this seems a bit over the top………it’s like listing the line-up and stating why each guy COULD hit under .220……In a group of 9-11 guys there will be some disappointments, but I think we can start with just Pagán & López as the suspect choices in our Pen. These two have been targets for replacement in my comments at TD for 3-4 months. The bullpens 2nd half resurgence was, in my opinion, due to getting rid of under-performers (Smith - Duffey - etc.) as well as, the Pen’s ability to rack up smooth, stress-free, innings from late August through September after the crunch of being in first place. Pagan & López have good stuff, but in my opinion, they don’t have the mental toughness nor the intestinal fortitude to pitch in big spots. I know López had a nice 3 months plus last year in Baltimore……lost 2 games to Twins before the trade. His 6 year history is brutal. Within throwing their exceptional stuff they both groove fastballs routinely. Frankly, am struggling that Hoffman is in the mix for a roster spot as well. Somebody has to pitch well - or Ok at least. I’m assuming that’s a healthy Alcala - Jax - Moran - Thielbar - Durán - maybe Winder/Sands - López/Pagán??? Am hoping for an adjustment in management thinking and we see SWR & Balazovic in relief sooner than later if there’s a need.
  18. JD-TWINS
    You got it flipped ……Gordon v. RH pitching & Farmer v. LH pitching. The Castro ability to play 2B & OF may have some traction but he needs to hit as well! Solano’s last 4 years v. LH pitching is awfully solid…….I think they give him an opportunity to play some 2B or 1B v. LH pitching in the Show.
  19. JD-TWINS
    Movement & seeming quick to batters is how I assumed your “overpowering” comment was meant. Swings & misses! Good article. Even though it may have felt like it, Bundy & Archer didn’t start 2/3 of our games in ‘22……...maybe 50 games or so, 30%?
  20. JD-TWINS
    Our roster is built to take advantage of the Left - Right platoon players we have. Can’t get lost on whether we are in the road or not. If Miranda plays as well on the road, better than others, …….and he’s in the line-up most everyday……rest him at home more than on the road - common sense!
  21. JD-TWINS
    Wild guess….92-70…..can’t see injuries being a big issue again with the current depth. Relief corp is biggest concern. Just hope that either couple guys improve dramatically, or we don’t waste a bunch of chances on Pagan & López. Nobody has gold glove OF & former starting SS as depth, platoon players……it’s common here to read about how poor the FO is doing……not sure they shouldn’t be getting pretty high praise for the 26 man we’re starting with in ‘23! Good fortune with the Farmer acquisition & the CC falling into our lap, yep……as they say, you make your own good fortune.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Maeda out of the Pen for long relief seems to be logical (back from TJ surgery) with Ober at #5 starter. Ober, more than likely runs out of gas by mid-July/Aug. 1. Throughout July, if having success, we can stretch out Maeda. Maeda works 2-3 innings a couple times per week April - June to ease him back. Ready to start in August, if needed. Contract issues seem to make this approach with Maeda unfair to him/impossible. I say, do what’s best for team to win. If we need to show good faith to Maeda and to players in general, re-do his contract so incentives make sense for both parties & he can comfortably be used where needed. The money he can realistically earn from his incentives is around $3-3.5M. Give him $2.75 and remove incentives or target them to relief innings, etc. Other plausible approach is to have Maeda start every 5th day and plan on Ober, coming in with a clean inning, to pitch the back half of the game. They both get innings lowered but essentially eliminate Bull Pen use every 5th start. May need a reliever to bridge from one guy to the other in middle of the game. That’s typically going to be an out or two. This is a way to keep their innings down to 20 innings per month so they are still fresh when August starts. Also, the Pen is getting refreshed every 5th day so carrying only 7 relievers can work.
  23. JD-TWINS
    Exactly! Also, we got Solano to load up the line-up with RH batters v. LH pitching. Farmer - 3B, Solano - 2B, & Miranda 1B……..at least some combination of these 3 guys at these 3 positions v. LH pitching. Gordon daily v. RH pitching. Polanco back soon we hope.
  24. JD-TWINS
    It seems then, that they played him there this spring purposefully…….. Gordon will be at 2B v. every RH pitcher we face until Polanco is back healthy. I think Solano at 2B v. LH pitching with Farmer at 3B & Miranda at 1B. If Polo was limping with a sleeve on his knee and skipping workouts 14 days prior to Opening Day he will not be ready. Need to make an adjustment of expectations. Larnach takes Polanco’s spot in roster and plays a little LF but is the regular DH v. RH pitching.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Have other LH bats ahead of him….if a couple guys are hurt, then Julien may get a shot! Solano isn’t, as you said, a viable bat against RH pitching.
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