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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    Wow - out for 7 or 8 weeks minimum. Maybe done? Time to start paying attention to Paddack’s recovery/timeline. Scouting trade partners for July should ramp up soon…….who are we willing to part with in 3 months? This is probable due to Paddack probably not being ready for any real stress or workload & Maeda being unreliable as well, even if he comes back in 3-4 weeks. Ober looks more than capable but how long does he last with recent injury issues and never throwing more than 15-20 games worth of starts? Varland is firmly in the mix now. Hope Winder can get his act together so he and Headrick can support our rotation as the long guys!
  2. JD-TWINS
    On paper, this guy looks like a real stud. PLUS curveball - PLUS fastball - no real 3rd pitch with any effectiveness though. On paper, I thought over the past off-season that he may develop a third pitch. Maybe a cutter at 93Mph seemed feasible. 98 - 100Mph four seam 93 Mph cutter 86 Mph (12-6) curveball Sounds like a lock for stardom in a Pen. Lack of any control lets guys ignore the curveball & sit on the straight fastball in the zone. The fact that the cutter is a fantasy is the nail in the coffin. Too many free passes and too many hard hit fastballs. Thought Twins would coach him up but apparently any progress was too slow or too frustrating for organization to deal with any longer. Great illustration of how getting 8 talented guys, that can be effective in a Pen, is so difficult. (i. e. E. Pagan)
  3. JD-TWINS
    Once Farmer is back, he won’t see infield again. Hope he keeps chipping away with the bat!
  4. JD-TWINS
    Agreed - not sure who is going to pull hamstring, the nagging injury! Maybe Solano? Taylor exposes us maybe too much? Good thought on how to get it done!
  5. JD-TWINS
    I live in Cincinnati and am not a huge Mahle fan. However, he only had 1 poor outing this year for Twins. He only pitched 4 innings last time out but his ERA is just above 3.00 for the season over 5 starts………he’s a solid option if he’s healthy for sure.
  6. JD-TWINS
    They knew he was just average going forward. Too many pitches per inning (no guts) & too many HR. Not Great American Ballpark’s fault - he gave up 3 HR in his Target Field debut last year…….leading Twin’s starter this year with 5 HR. Live in Cincinnati - last summer I was hoping we’d trade whoever needed to get Castillo instead of Mahle. They are completely different guys………..if that happens, we re-signed Castillo - don’t have López & still have Arraez. Now we’re hoping we can replace Arraez’ offense with a guy (prospect) we could have traded to Cinti. Live & learn - I like our FO & we did what we thought would work out. Mahle wouldn’t have helped enough last year - no foul. This new issue seems to be elbow & not shoulder……have to just wait & see. He’s thrown well enough for a 4/5 starter this year. He can help us even if he sits a couple times this year for 3 weeks. 12-18 quality starts helps us keep pace, not the end of the world. Surely doesn’t feel like a guy we want to try & extend. Extend Gray while he’ll still talk to us. Always risk but 2 years at $42M seems to make sense. We can see that after Pablo signed his extension he’s not really Superman, just another 2-3 starter like Gray & Ryan. ALL 3 are really valuable!!! On pace for 95 wins after April & our offense has been anemic at times (2B & 1B began year at AAA) & two starting pitchers have had mediocre to bad starts to the season. Blew a game in the Pen yesterday. Best platoon player got hit by pitch in the face. Still winning……… Looking good for a successful year!!
  7. JD-TWINS
    Maeda could be out most of May. Same story or worse for Mahle. That said, we should have a long-term plan and not just who’s going to start next couple starts. My rotation starting tomorrow: Ryan - Varland - López - Ober - Gray Pen stable by May 15: Headrick - Winder - Stewart - Maeda - Duran - Jax - Thielbar - López……….Balazavic & Alcala in wings
  8. JD-TWINS
    Max is exceptional in RF! Gallo has been a Gold Glove outfielder and Max hasn’t. There’s no drop-off with Gallo in RF. There’s no real drop-off in CF with Taylor there - Twins fans think there is because Byron oozes athleticism. Taylor has won a Gold Glove in CF. Gallo plays a really solid 1B. Solano is mediocre at both 1B & 2B …….shown that over the last week…….he may be the guy that’s expendable. Farmer comes back - Miranda can play 1B v. LH pitching. The issue I was hoping the author may have some insight on “How to make room for Alex Kiriloff” was not regarding how to pencil him in the line-up it was regarding how to fit him on the 26 man. No such insight here. Taylor getting any at bats v. RH pitching at the beginning of the year would have been due to no other options. Anyone else playing CF & reducing Taylor AB’s is fine with the Twins. (Gordon or Gallo or Buxton) Farmer will be back in 1-2, weeks & Castro will go down & we’ll be back at the March 30th, 26 man roster. How do we fit Kiriloff? Kepler is hot over last dozen games. Gordon is showing signs of coming around & can play 4 positions. Can’t imagine either of them being moved. It appears we’ll go 17-12 by end of April and are on a 95 game win pace……..good problems to have when you’ve got too many good players!
  9. JD-TWINS
    Beat the White Sox & the Yankees 4-3 each - so, we really have 6 wins with 4 runs or less. Putting on a hitting clinic on Sunday……8 runs and still at bat in the 3rd. Kepler - Gordon - Castro - Vasquez all contributing. Kepler just struck out and got to 1st on pitch that went to backstop. Buxton hit a middle-middle fastball into the upper deck in left field. Pagan may get to pitch later today, Oh boy! I just heard on the Broadcast that Joe Ryan has as many wins as A’s at this point. A thought - hope maybe for May: Stewart - Headrick - Winder - Maeda - Duran - Jax - López - Thielbar……….nobody in that mix that makes you ill - right?!!
  10. JD-TWINS
    Duran - López - Jax - Thielbar - Headrick - Winder - Stewart - Morán ……..not a perfect group but pretty high ceiling if guys are going right!!……..Alcala & Balazavic in the wings. Broken record, we need to free ourselves of Pagan. 1B - C - DH - 2B are our solid spots offensively at this point, through April. Kepler & Miranda seem to be warming. If we believe CC will hit .270 for the year, we can expect two months of him hitting .300 coming this summer. CJ Cron, because of his positive history with the club, is the only potential guy in this group of 4 that could bring a shot in the arm for team in July. Kiriloff should up our offensive game & only if Solano drops like a rock do we entertain Cron. Don’t see any offensive adds going forward this year from outside the organization.
  11. JD-TWINS
    Twins have two wins with score of 3-1 & two other wins 2-0. That’s 25% of our current wins. One day all fans are down on offense and then the criticism, as it should be, is on the Pen for lack of focus and difficulty throwing strikes. No perfect clubs out there!! If it’s not pitching/it’s lack of timely offense. Gotta roll forward in a 162 game season and hope things balance out & you’re good enough.
  12. JD-TWINS
    Completely agree in principal as an OG. It’s not 1969 though, when the fundamentals were being introduced to me. Also, some guy named Charlie Hustle was who you should emulate your playing habits after at that time ………..have lived in Cincinnati now for 32 years & Pete’s off the field habits are nothing to be emulated. Cant ride guys anymore - just can’t. It’s considered abusive and divisive. Players have no fear of Manager because the player is the star. Upper management doesn’t back discipline unless the player has been caught, for some off the field indiscretion - then the press leads the way and management is cool to pursue discipline. Not running out a fly ball or a grounder to short - minor issue in today’s game. Not right, but that’s the way it is.
  13. JD-TWINS
    After Thielbar came in there’s no need for Winder. Coming to get a 3rd out in 6th isn’t a fair spot for Winder either. Management of staff/Pen wasn’t the problem - Jax walking the first guy in the 8th was the problem!! He had him 0-2……..I did not agree with bringing López in just after Jax retired 2 guys in a row. Guys have to execute & all 3 of our late inning guys didn’t execute! I do agree that when throwing 100Mph plus and there are control issues, we could probably lay off the splinker as a surprise to the batter. Throw strikes! There is no doubt that Pagán creates a dead spot in our Pen when we need something good to happen. Can’t go there.
  14. JD-TWINS
    So Gordon has started horribly. Last year he hit .289 with 27 doubles after May. We are 27 games in and Taylor is due to collapse offensively v. RH pitching - Buxton is starting to thrive at DH & he’s in the line-up 90% of the time while not playing CF. He’s our CF v. RH pitching - just needs a little momentum. CC is hitting .195. To me, no doubt that they option Castro before DFAing Gordon. Farmer displaces Castro. Castro isn’t hitting any better than Gordon & doesn’t have the success in ‘22 that Gordon can point to. Kiriloff coming up is the difficulty. Larnach has his spot on the 26 man & he’s leading the team in RBI…….as crazy as it seems…….they may slow roll Kiriloff’s return expecting an inevitable injury that would allow hanging in to Nick. Other even crazier idea is they option Larnach for a couple weeks to buy time (doubtful). One way or another, they are going to try & get to July to at least trade Gordon with a prospect for some return. Tough to DFA a guy that in ‘22 had 28 doubles - hit .279 - 8 HR & plays 2B - SS - LF - CF, in his first, truly healthy season………..He’s had 52 AB’s in ‘23.
  15. JD-TWINS
    You lost me. Kiriloff being tied to Buxton playing CF has no connection I can get behind. Taylor plays CF v. LH pitching & when Buxton is unable to play and/or Gordon is struggling v. RH pitching. Gordon has been ice cold & Buxton has been designated to resting his body while DHing for the first 5-6 weeks of the season. Kiriloff has to displace Larnach or Solano from the 26 man. One is leading team in RBI and the other has played pretty well and has no options to be sent down - we’d have to DFA Solano. Kiriloff has to be at a high level to displace either of these guys!
  16. JD-TWINS
    No matter what Alex does (I think our roster is great - just a point of interest here) he won’t be able to touch Luis Arraez 2023 start to the season. Happy for Luis!! As of 4/27 games: .483 OBP I he goes 0-20 in his next 20 AB’s, he’ll still be hitting .340! He’s 34-80 and currently batting .425 …….25 games into the season. What a fantastic hitter!! Hope he wins another title this year in NL……only been done a couple times - Batting Crown in each league.
  17. JD-TWINS
    Oliva earned a Gold Glove one year - won some batting titles - in the HOF. My assumption is the reference was strictly limited to defense. Brunansky put up some good numbers for a few years as well. He’s pretty affordable for the defensive excellence but his ineffectiveness at the plate has made him tough to carry - not really a financial decision but without production, a little production in future for $8-$9M less will be the obvious choice.
  18. JD-TWINS
    Fresh perspective on DH: 20 players in MLB had more than 30 HR in 2022 - Buxton had 28 in 96 games played. He’s on pace for 138 games this year. His current 5 HR project to 29 over rest of games. With Buxton & Joey Gallo on the roster we will have 2 of Top 20 HR guys in the league. Again, don’t see a problem.
  19. JD-TWINS
    Keeping Duran in a routine at work. He’s got a personal day today and can’t pitch. He’ll be fine for Saturday afternoon. Rocco’s not an idiot.
  20. JD-TWINS
    Love to see Sanity represented!!
  21. JD-TWINS
    Two of the top 6 hitters on the team are the guys that have been playing 1B in ‘23………our best potential hitter in our system that’s currently not on 26 man roster is Kiriloff - first baseman. His stats/metrics for this year are at or slightly better than career & he projects to hit 30 HR. Don’t see a problem. Last & arguably the most important stat is that he’s playing 88% of games - his average games played over 7 of his 8 seasons has been 46% of the time. Not getting any value with him sitting on the IL.
  22. JD-TWINS
    It’s April 28. He’s going to play 30 games or so in CF through the remainder of the season. We have a Gold Glove CF playing nearly every day now. His stats this year are nearly identical to his career stat line after 8 seasons. Do we really think that if he played CF he would be surpassing the norm for his first EIGHT seasons? He’s stolen 36 bases in the past 5 seasons……14 of those were in one year. That’s an average of 4.5 steals per year in the other 4 seasons. As much as people wish think his speed = base stealer, it’s never been real. Career ………. 2023 BA .244. ……….. .244 OBP .301 ……….. .305 Slg.% .473. ………. .488 OPS. .774. ………. .794 5 HR at this point projects to 29 HR for season. Last year he played 92 games & hit 28 HR……….he projects to play 85% of games this year or 138 games. I like his chances to hit 30 plus HR. What’s the problem? Oh btw, he’s played 23 of 26 games = 88% of games…………outside of 2017 season, he’s averaged 46% of the games per season over 7 seasons. Gotta do something different!! Are we getting our money’s worth if he steals 1 base per month - plays 13 games per month, 10 in CF & 3 at DH - and sits out 88 games injured - that’s his history. If he gets hot for 5-8 days at a time for 3 stints during the year it’s worth watching him sit in the dugout when we are in the field. He’s been in the line-up 9 of 10 games so far in 2023 & that’s his value!
  23. JD-TWINS
    Maeda is coming off Tommy John……..Mahle was shutdown twice last year in MN & once in Cincinnati. These are the two guys - if we didn’t anticipate potential problems with them going into ‘23 we’re pretty naive. The entire past 3-5 months has been a constant debate about Ober v. Maeda as part of the rotation. Correa was Ice Cold last year in April & hit around .280 for the year. Not great that he’s not been contributing a bunch but we’re winning and CC will get much better. No contract concerns. April 28th.
  24. JD-TWINS
    Agreed, common sense move seems to be IL for both Maeda & Mahle. It’s a 3-4 week thing for Maeda and a single missed start for Mahle. Be conservative early & let our depth help! Last year Mahle had “shoulder fatigue” in Cinti in July & then again in September in MN. This elbow thing is new & can’t act like it doesn’t matter. Miranda & Keppler are coming around every couple games ………if we start getting balance up & down line-up………..as CC eventually warms up, we’re pretty good! Have 6 - 6 - 6 & 7 runs per game over the last 4 contests.
  25. JD-TWINS
    I agree - in July somebody is going to get traded and I can’t imagine it would be Lewis or Lee. That said, Julien - Martin are prime options along with vets we can’t fit on 26 man, guys like Kepler - Gordon - Solano…..,1 or 2 of them. If Julien only plays 2B in minors, his potential of sticking with Twins diminishes a bunch. It’s possible, maybe not likely, that Polanco is still at 2B in ‘24. If not, a switch hitting replacement in Lee has a great shot. Lewis will be playing some back-up SS and a fair amount at 3B, as well as possibly being the starting 2B if Miranda settles in at 3B & with the bat. Farmer’s a solid experienced guy who is under contract for ‘24. A lack of position flexibility will really limit Julien v. his young, up & coming, competition!
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