JD-TWINS

Gallo is more likely an everyday CF to relieve Taylor. Taylor is back to his norm and it’s glaring now because he plays so often. Gallo has a hamstring problem and may not be able to play OF for a few weeks? Kiriloff - Walner are in the corners for the short term with Garlick playing v. LH pitching. Makes sense Castro may play between Kirilloff - Walner/Kepler in the short-term. He’s actually shown that there’s some merit to treat him like a switch hitter - not just on paper. Encouraging! Can bunt to move runners, not always perfect but capable. Can steal a base. He brings value! 3 weeks ago I wouldn’t have considered promoting his abilities. it he’s earned some respect.

Exactly - Lee will play when they think he’s ready for AAA pitching & no reason to move him up swiftly…….needs confidence. Polanco - Julien & Castro (if the latter keep hitting) are all in front of him & Farmer would be as well at all 3 infield spots. Lewis at 3B & CC at Short.

So for all the metrics guys out there that think walks are just as good as base hits, take a hard look at last night & realize BA really matters when trying to score runs - hits matter!! Blue Jays had 7 hits & zero walks - 3 runs. Twins had 4 hits & 9 walks - 1 run…….OBP doesn’t win games - moving runners forward scores runs and that’s done by putting the ball in play & getting base hits. We could have signed Eovaldi or Bassitt in free agency & paid Luis $12M a season for a while. Should have - could have - would have……….hope Pablo gets going today!!!

Kirilloff started hot and is now down to a normal .275 BA……pinch hitting was a little odd but he’s not Mickey Mantle - need to give Castro a chance from the right side. Solano got a hit the other night when he pinch hit. No complaint there.

Reasons why we try to keep performers like Polanco for as long as we can. There’s always a shiny new guy with some success and “he just needs a chance to show what he can do……..” nothing new. Players come & some that are touted as sure things, are going to wash out OR take 4-5 years to get to the right consistency level.

Julien is a role player at this point - it’s not the World Baseball tourney anymore. He’s not a stud, he has some good potential! As a guy who only plays 2B I don’t see him with a long future with the Twins. He’s up because Polanco is hurt, period. With that aside, Solano PH and got a single to start the inning. Later in the game, Garlick hit a HR & he had replaced Kirilloff. It’s not all managerial gloom & doom. Baldelli doesn’t have anything to do with the side striking out in the middle innings! Our bat to ball skills, regardless of other positive stats, are terrible as a group!! Hitting coach & the approach there seems to be reasonable to question.

Looking forward to Lewis just like everybody else. He’s going through what is essentially his Spring Training this month. I assume he will be up by mid-June to July 1 at latest. 3B is not a problem since Miranda went down. Farmer is sufficient defensively & our 2nd/3rd best hitter per statistics. Polanco comes back we’re solid at 2B. CC is at SS. Kirilloff is playing great. Catchers are doing a decent job on both sides of the plate. Infield is set, near-term. I see Lewis at 3B by July 1 with Farmer back into resting guys around the infield & playing 60-70% of the time. Current Line-up v. RH starters: OPS+ Gallo - 139 CF Buxton - 124 DH Correa - 92 SS Kirilloff - 184 1B Polanco - 122 2B Farmer - 119 3B Larnach - 96 LF Jeffers - 109 C Kepler - 103 RF If 100 is essentially a baseline for reasonable production we aren’t as in terrible need for help as we all think. TIMELY hitting helps……..we all expect Larnach & Correa to hit at least 40 points higher BA by end of July……..decent line-up. With Gordon out I’d opt for Gallo or Kepler in CF v. Castro. Castro doesn’t have the bat to start & provides nice flexibility off the bench in various roles. HELP is needed in the Pen!! Maeda - Headrick - Balazovic are all worth looks in the Pen….IMO.

Miranda didn’t show up this year & I don’t think there’s anyone that follows Twins/baseball that didn’t think he was probably our 3rd or 4th best offensive weapon. Almost zero positive production to date & working on himself in St. Paul. Polanco was the other anticipated 3rd or 4th best offensive weapon. Didn’t play first 25 games or more & now out for another 8-9 minimum. Solid when available but tough to be consistent as a club with him in 40% of the games. Kirilloff has been great - only played 15 games or so to date. Gordon was brutal for first 35 games and just getting going (needed in CF) and he’s now out for how long??? Kepler has been out for 20 games. Correa is lifetime .279 hitter & he’s around .208……..better things to come. Farmer got hit in the face & had oral surgery and missed 20 games or so. Miranda - Kepler - Polanco - Gordon - Mahle - Maeda……..none of these are on 26 man roster & we’re in essentially every game. Couple calls from umpires last week and a couple better bullpen performances and we’re 28-20. I get our record is what it is but we’re not far off pretty good! Our current 5 starters are a combined 17-5 with a 2.83 ERA. I’d say that’s pretty good and gives reason for optimism. Hitting & health will be a roller coaster for rest of the year…………..our bullpen is the issue and we have potential help/solutions over next 15-30 days. Maeda - Balazovic - Headrick should all be additions to the pen over next few weeks. Moran - Stewart - Jax - Lopez - Duran are decent core but we need to fill out the other 3 spots with effective guys.

It seems the They we are referring to is principally Jorge Lopez. First 10 plus innings of the season dominant/perfection! Since then, still looks to have good stuff but not getting outs in tough situations. Discouraging. Need bullpen depth with trying a AAA reliever or two. New guys. Funderburk - Balazovic - somebody. Sands is never used so why have him take up a roster spot?……..really hopeful Maeda may help in Pen soon - in June! Maybe Headrick - why not, he’s effective?………..can’t worry about keeping him stretched out in case of injury to someone else. Need to utilize him!

Balazovic to Twins to pick up that middle-leverage type of role. Replacing Alcala in his role. A parallel to Stewart. Duran - Lopez Thielbar - Jax - Stewart - Balazovic - Maeda - Moran by June 5th. ……………………………………. Headrick should be first up to help by July 1st. Henriquez - Sands - Winder - Funderburk as/if needed. Anybody the TWINS don’t have at AAA isn’t worth commenting on as a fan! Who knows.

I do not get the burning need to see Buxton in CF other than just as an “exciting visual possibility.” We have had a Gold Glove CF start 70% of the games. Buxton has been in the line-up 41 of 45 games. ………..he’s averaged playing in 46% of the games in 7 of 8 years in big leagues………He has an OPS of .835 & has helped carry us to 6-7 of our 25 wins. Things seem to be working. I see fans here clamoring for Kiriloff as the DH. Seems we just create a hitting deficiency at 1B then? Again, since he’s been up he’s doing well, including 2 spot uses as a pinch hitter in the last 2 games with great success! As of this morning, Buxton was pinch hit for last night due to “upper leg stiffness”. He’s going to play CF maybe 30 games this year when it’s nice & warm in the evenings. Maybe. In the meantime, Taylor looks fine on defense even though his back may be bothering him. He was robbed of a straightaway centerfield HR on Friday night. V. RH pitching, Gallo or Castro or Taylor in CF until Gordon re-habs in 5-6 weeks. Typically Larnach in LF & Kepler in RF. Kepler is back this week apparently. IF Buxton needs some time off, Julien can DH v. RH pitching while Castro fills in for Polanco. How about Kyle Farmer!!! 10 games since he took over for Miranda & he’s got 9 RBI & hit .395 over those games. The Garlick - Solano - Farmer RH bats v. LH pitching went 6 for 11 last night in 6-2 win. FO has done a nice job building depth in ‘23! Who would have thought that on May 21st Gordon - Polanco - Miranda - Kepler - Buxton may all be out of the line-up and nobody is freaking out? We are taking FO for granted with the guys we have available & their level of ability to step up & perform. Hoping Gordon is back by July 1 !!!

Maeda has to be a reliever when back. Period. Duran - Lopez - Thielbar -Jax - Stewart….that’s 6 These guys can all perform 3 out of 4 times…….up to 6 or 7 times w/o a hick-up. Last 2 spots are up in the air: Moran is about 60% effective, a maybe??…….I think Balazovic would be worth a try to be a potential shot in the arm. My favorite choice is to ignore starter depth and to bring Headrick into the Pen! Henriquez can get guys out in short bursts. If we’re giving Alcala multiple looks & Moran multiple looks it seems the 2,guys at AAA should get a shot (one at a time) to see how they hold up in 2 outings…….Laweryson & Funderburk. All these guys have options so let’s not go crazy, but try a couple. We know what Sands & Winder are all about…..mediocre & hurt.

I liked Chafin or Hand (either) as well as Fulmer, so it’s not easy to get it right. Alcala & Moran pitch the way we expected & all is good……(ERA of around 4.00 with a few less walks)……. even take away 2 bad outings by Jax & everybody would be satisfied. Pagan has to go just to make one feel like organization is at least trying to do the right thing. Week of June 5th: Twins Pen Stewart - Jax - Balazovic - Thielbar - Maeda - Lopez - Duran - Headrick (next up, Moran - Alcala - Sands) I get Headrick is stretching out to back up the current remaining 5 starters but we need him in Pen now. He gets outs. Will have to flex if another starter goes down. Hoping Winder gets right in another 30-45 days!

I get the logic of keeping him stretched out - particularly since SWR doesn’t seem to be the answer. We can’t have sub-par guys in the Pen while we’re using up good innings in St Paul for some future need/situation. Bring Balazovic up!

If we’re ahead 5-3 in a game and we can’t hold the lead, it’s not a victory for the hitters. We need to get the job done in tight spots! Not going to happen all the time, granted…….but it shouldn’t be a 2-3 time per week concern. If Duran has an out in the 10th & an 0-2 count after 2 fastballs, he shouldn’t throw a middle/middle curveball……we had 8 runs at the time. I get he’s not “the problem”, just an example. Thielbar being out doesn’t help an already slim group. Don’t understand Headrick’s absence from the Pen. He was nothing but effective! Maeda hopefully able to put together 3-5 outs at a time in another 3-4 weeks. By June 5th……Thielbar - Headrick - Maeda - Lopez - Duran - Balazovic - Jax - Stewart ………. Moran? Sands? DeLeon? I honestly think this group shown here of 8-10 options is just as talented as nearly all other Pens in baseball.

So, I agree on Cano & premature timing for crown judgement ….,..also hope he does well. Same for López. Although, after 20 innings for Twins last year I had him ranked right next to Pagán. I wanted him released. Even with great start this year, he scares me. He’s had a couple outings where he came in for Jax & let the guys on base score……Jax ERA up ….Lopez, unscathed. He doesn’t seem to throw strikes in high leverage situations, with base runners. He looks fantastic starting an inning fresh but once he allows runners his command seems to drift, regularly! I get nobody is perfect but his stuff (velocity plus pitch array) is really good but he, like Pagan, throws too many middle/middle pitches in tight spots. Have seen him give up 0-2 hits more than once. Whoever is calling the game may have some responsibility but my assumption is it’s ultimately the pitcher’s end call on what’s thrown. He just doesn’t seem to have the right stuff between his ears. Anyway, my question all along, particularly late last season when he really struggled, is why would a team around .500 trade an All-Star reliever? He was under contract for 2 1/2 more years and not expensive………I think they knew he had/has some weakness between the ears & it was too soon to judge him for the long term.

So, I think Miranda’s only shot is to assume a role that Solano has now. Back-up 3B - RH 1B - RH pinch hitter - occasional DH. Julien only gets reps at 2B. Almost seems he’s being groomed for a trade. With Lee & Lewis, I don’t see him getting any innings especially with the real possibility we hang in to Polanco. With reps at 3B for Lewis at AA & AAA & Lee only playing SS at AA, it seems Lewis would be the 2nd option at 3B this year from mid-June on, along with Farmer. Either can rest CC. Farmer can rest Polanco. Right now, Farmer is probably the 3rd best hitter on the team since coming back from injury! Julien - Martin - Lee are all behind Miranda & way behind Kiriloff at 1B. Don’t see any of them having a real opportunity there without big time injury.

Gordon has been on the roster with Gallo & Kepler & Larnach all year………Walner seems logical with Gallo getting some CF starts.

Headrick - Balazovic - Deleon - (Maeda 3 weeks away) - Duran - Lopez - Thielbar (2 weeks away) - Stewart - Jax

Exactly!! That’s his major problem, he’s clueless or has nearly zero command. Cannot tube a fastball after 2 straight walks. Throw a middle/middle fastball to Heyward, 2 batters prior so you don’t walk him. Came into game with TWO OUTS. He gets behind in pressure situations and then caves & instead of throwing a strike to a spot he goes middle/middle and it gets rocked. Happens repeatedly. Some are comparing him to Jax. Jax has had some terrible breaks - he’s walked some guys in bad spots - but he’ll give up a run or not get a hold when needed but he doesn’t give up 2,3,or 4 runs & takes us out of a game.

I like the prospects but, other than Lewis, they are all just prospects. Miranda had a very nice ‘21 in minors…….last year was promising……..this year he’s lost. Lee is a decent hitter this year at AA……nothing special. Not sure Martin is even playing after hearing of elbow problems in early March? Julien, regardless of possible opportunities with big club, continuously only gets penciled in as a 2B. Lee is a switch hitter & a better defender, so if he comes around, Julien has no place in the organization. Miranda can take over Solano’s role as pinch hitter, occasional RH - DH, & RH 1B…….depth at 3B. Buxton’s offense keeps him off the field for all but maybe 25 games this summer. Gordon coming back to play against RH pitching will be needed to keep Buxton fresh! I think Walner now for Gordon and let him give Gallo a break for a few days. Once healed up, Gallo can help in CF as needed.

Gallo - Castro - Taylor for CF. Seems Walner could make sense for the Gordon IL stint?

Farmer has been under appreciated with his positional flexibility and clutch offensive performances from the start of the season. Since he’s taken Miranda’s spot, we’re 5-2 and he’s hitting around .400 with 2 homers. Agreed - FO brought in some guys that are essentially all contributing - Vazquez had 5 hits & a walk in his last 2 starts - Solano, like a lot of guys, is up & down but gives us a chance with experience in his role. Taylor has been steady & done everything we could expect!

20 guys in MLB hit over .290 last year (2022) & Arraez hit .316. Average over 4 seasons is .314 going into ‘23. If somebody is already on base, do you want a lifetime .198 hitter that hits a home run every one in sixteen AB’s and puts the ball in play 40% of the time OR a guy who gets on base 40% of the time and gets a hit 35% of the time. Runners score by advancing on bases! This is his 5th season as an excellent hitter not his 2nd month in some fluke year. The risk/reward for Gallo in a line-up can be rationalized but to help win games over a long 162 game schedule I don’t think many clubs would opt for Gallo v. Arraez. Arraez not scoring runs has to do with the mediocrity in the Marlin’s line-up behind him…..not because he’s not hitting the ball far enough!

He’s what we traded for…….a #2-#3 level starter. His change-up gets him lots of adulation around the league but his other stuff is good not great. He can’t miss with sweeper nor fastball.