JD-TWINS

To date in ‘23: 120 AB’s for Polanco - .250 BA - 9 doubles - 5 HR - defense he brings - 30 games, 16 RBI - .450 SLG% - experience 125 AB’s for Julien - .256 BA - 8 doubles - 6 HR - defense he brings - 41 games, 11 RBI - .464 SLG% - positive energy Offensively, pretty comparable, IMO. Defense seems to be the decision point if both healthy - right?

Agreed on his progress to date - qualified statement with, “if Lee does what’s expected” …..he may never play 2B for us.

Again, have been choosing Polanco over an unproven rookie with 100 AB’s or less since he came up, and people (many, not you) anointed him a star from his performance at WBA or whatever it’s called. You did mention he was 2nd best hitter in our line-up…….if that were obvious he’d have a hard time being displaced by Polanco or anybody else. Enter the defensive side of the game…….his potential to play elsewhere if Polanco is in the line-up. How’s describing him as “he’s the new guy & he isn’t hurt 50% of the time like Polanco” for a description. I get it. I think Polanco, if healthy is a better option with his experience - I guess we agree to disagree.

If Lee is what is expected next year by mid-season, I don’t see a spot on the field for Julien. Have been saying this same thing since late April. Not a hater by any means but trying to be realistic……..Miranda - Julien - Winder - Varland/Maeda - Larnachvare all reasonable trade pieces to fill our holes.

I realize people love Julien because he’s the shiny new guy. In August/September I’ll take a veteran (if healthy) that’s been clutch many times before. His defensive value is real as well……..writers here state Julien is fine and if not at 2B, at 3B or 1B, it doesn’t work that way. They don’t play on paper. Other writers don’t think he can field at all. I don’t look up stats on defense but I do watch almost all innings played - he’s mechanical, a little slow, but adequate with a good bat. Certainly is adequate if Polanco can’t play. Over the short-term, recent 3-4 weeks, CC - Lewis - Kirilloff - Solano seem to be our guys getting hits…….Julien has contributed…….he’s not a star.

Bailey Ober could be the most underrated pitcher in the game today. Seriously. His key stats are top 3 & top 5 in the game per the Apple broadcast team. With Maeda looking the way he has over past 3 starts, we have maybe the best 1 to 5 guys in the game. Gotta BUY! Get ONE bat in next 3 weeks - Lewis - Polanco healthy & our offense should produce down the stretch. Need a relief pitcher to add some depth……Moran & Pagan/Lopez should be #7 & #8 and we need Thielbar in our top 6 guys. Stewart coming back strong is pretty questionable for the near-term (this season). Gotta trade for one effective depth piece. Duran will be OK if he stays healthy. Jax is lights out!

No more 2nd innings - appears he’s not able to do it mentally. WHERE WAS HIS FASTBALL? I’m not sure if he threw one over the entire 21 pitches. That’s concerning!! Not sure where to find this stat but I seriously don’t recall a fastball thrown.

Turner is interesting as it could slide Lewis to 2B in September…….contributes to a stout line-up v. LH pitching……….he’s a great bat off the bench if not starter! His experience & mutual swagger could help lift CC & Buxton to new heights. Robertson - Leiter - Hand - Harvey - Martin……any one of these would be a Big boost!! I’m wondering who we are trading in any of these scenarios??? …………………… My (probably unattainable) guy is Friedl - CF for Cincinnati. Fast - BA of .300 - perfect compliment to Taylor in CF, but still just a piece in a sea of young value in Cincinnati & they are starved for pitching. Gray - Winder?…….doubtful for Reds Winder - SWR - Maeda?…….a Vet that’s in a groove & couple upside guys Varland - Winder? ……..a proven horse for innings in Varland with an upside future, plus immediate BP help from Winder

Why not trade for him this year as a potential enticement to sign going forward if it’s a mutually positive experience in ‘23? I live in Cincinnati and see how crowded their line-up is with young talent. They need pitching. My trade target is for a left-handed hitting CF. Friedel fits the bill for Twins to play everyday against RH starters. Bellinger or Friedel are both lofty targets but they have nice fits for our needs…….gotta give up pitching in either trade…..probably 2-3 young guys in Friedel’s case. Hand or Robertson would be a major shot in the arm for our Pen!! Any one of these 4 guys would be a big deal! I don’t see the need for a RH bat! Play-off Line-up v. lefties: Solano - 1B Kirilloff - RF CC - SS Farmer - 2B Lewis - 3B Jeffers - C Castro - LF Taylor - CF Buxton - DH Seems solid to me!!

Kuechel is obviously a stretch - pretty easy to take a flyer on him with a minor league deal. Fingers crossed! An organization is rolling the dice with a long & costly deal with any pitcher/athlete. (see B. Buxton) When it’s done with a guy that on paper should have 3-4 good years left (by age) it’s something that good teams try. Burnes, as an example, appears that he’ll hold up physically to eat innings at a minimum. He obviously competes and that’s another positive check mark. There’s no magic on how many or which chance to take. Can spend Gray/Mahle $ to afford him. I do think, that good teams take a chance or 3 on every roster. CC is one - Buxton has become two - a guy like Burnes may be too much risk or he might win 60% of his starts for 3 years? Maybe we sign Gray for 2 more years at $23M/year? With Ober/Ryan/Varland/Lopez and the $ reduction of $12M on dropping Mahle, we could re-run this year’s staff and we add Paddack for no extra $. Is Gray worth the risk at 34 & 35 years of age? Have learned some in the TD Forum about this QO and it seems to be an obvious move for Gray. We could get a pick and then use his $ & Mahle’s $ to extend Ryan & maybe Ober late season next year? Hoping for a less costly FA starter - probably no such thing with the same upside of Gray.

We need players that can play. Taylor & Kepler & Castro can play. Gallo is a personal preference type of choice - I see just a sliver of value. Looking at youth & hoping they’ll be able to play is chasing one’s tail. There’s always young guys with promise…..last year it was Larnach - etc. If Celestino didn’t prove with his chance in ‘22 that he cannot play I don’t know what else he needs to do?

OK - trading your starting CF when you are in first place and have the 3rd weakest schedule left in MLB doesn’t seem to make sense. #4-5 in MLB pitching stats……..Why punt? There is zero market for Gallo. Veteran presence (flexible & sound Defense) with the power threat v. an up & comer…….FO gotta make a decision. Don’t often release guys on teams in the playoff mix. Kepler, as much as I hate to admit it, plays an excellent RF (shown often in past couple weeks) and his numbers are not anywhere near DFA numbers. A couple weeks ago - maybe a week ago I wanted to DFA him but his OPS is league average - he looks like he’s going to hit 22-24 HR in 130 games - batting average working from .208 up toward .235 or better - very good defense…….these all stack up to a starting RF…..I don’t like it much but it’s real! If we’re competitive and have a decent staff we need to buy. Can’t jettison the roster vets just to see what may happen! Solano - Farmer - Castro have been glue guys most of the year. Buy: An OF piece maybe - Relief help I like moving whoever we need to get Friedel from Cincinnati. They have multiple pieces with Encarnacion-Strand & others in the wings at AAA. Left handed hitting - fast - everyday CF v. RH pitching - high energy. Can’t imagine they will entertain moving him but they need pitching now & in future. Better OF & hitter than Castro with similar speed on bases. I offer Winder & Varland so the Reds get controllable pieces and more than one option to hit on with two arms……,.,Maybe SWR & Winder & Maeda? ……….I know Varland is young & has an upside but so does Friedel! Gotta give value to get value. Friedel would be a reach but an ideal piece. Better base runner - better OF - better hitter than Nick Gordon.

Shake yourself…..Buxton can’t play everyday. Kepler can’t play everyday. Who would you rather have in the 6th or later to Pinch Hit against a RH reliever, Miranda or Wallner? I’m not in love with Wallner but Miranda looks like a teenager playing MLB since 3rd week of the season. Lewis doesn’t/didn’t play everyday. Wallner - Taylor - Kepler - Gallo are all OF with Castro in a swing spot between OF & IF. Solano - Farmer - CC - Julien - Kirilloff are all IF with Castro in a swing spot between IF & OF. Vazquez - Jeffers Buxton Pretty straightforward.

Wallner gets AB at PH, DH, and playing RF. Better off having Castro or Solano at 3B and opening a spot for Wallner on the roster………Miranda’s defense (in a snapshot to be fair) isn’t a replacement for Lewis at 3B either. We have 3B covered with Farmer/Castro/Solano.

IF Julien could play 3B we would have seen him there previously……..can’t wait for Polanco to come back to move Miranda…..that could be another month. Option Miranda & bring up Wallner to see if he’s still MLB ready for the 2nd half. The guys below, with Polanco coming, are just fine for our infield. Julien/Farmer/Solano at 2B Farmer/Castro/Solano at 3B CC gets 5 out of next 8 days off - should help his back. Kind of surprised there’s little to no talk of the fact that he has a brace on lower back in dugout all the time - assumption is it provides heat as well. His bat sure looks like it has heated up last 3 weeks - particularly last 6 games & ability to go hard the other way!!

Agreed - he’s gotta go. Tapping rollers to 2B & popping up & playing defense worse or on par with Solano. Can’t be on roster. Send him to AA & get some confidence rolling. Maybe wake him up a little as well not being across the river from the Big Club.

I saw in the re-cap that he had 74 of 100 pitches for strikes, which is your point, but 25 …….1 of every 4 were called strikes. Gotta be moving the ball around & fooling guys with stuff around the black all night. Very impressive regardless of the competition!!

As a guy who’s called for Max being DFA’d more than once this year…….if you go deeper than the occasional eye test and look at the numbers presented Wallner isn’t as good, & Max is reasonable. I watch most every game and Kepler’s defense in the last week probably out shines anything Wallner could do in 5 years. There’s value in that even though it’s tough to remember when Max taps out to the second baseman. If he can stay at average OPS of .730 - hit 24 HR’s in 130 games - hit .235 plus, with his defense, he should start v. every RH we face and probably against half the LH as well. He may well exceed these expectations. Clubhouse positive is part of why he’s been kept - gotta be with his tenure. If he keeps playing at the pace we’ve seen lately they will definitely pick up his option for ‘24. …….gotta say that part of his problem is staying healthy but some seems to be between his ears - sure seems his mind is right over past couple weeks on O & D…..big hits & big catches!!

He gets one - maybe two more starts. Slow grounders to 2B & pop ups in the infield are no way to work your way back into the line-up. Errors and wild throws over 3-4 games don’t help either. Gotta let Castro & Farmer cover 3B and get Wallner in Miranda’s spot after the break.

Guys on MLB Network…….I saw a comparison of Arraez to Gallo maybe 6 weeks ago. Gallo was hitting around .225 but much better power numbers. It was interesting “runs generation” analysis. Brian Kenney had to yield to the .410 BA but it took 15 minutes of back & forth. Gallo was making contact about 29% of the time at that point - by my memory. The national pundits are united in the lack of interest in BA. I saw this morning in a TD article that if CC was hitting .270 …….much closer to his ‘22 BA of .291 that his OPS would be above 800. His power numbers mirror ‘22 or are close but his .220 BA drags his OPS down close to 700. This comparison of CC’s ‘22 & ‘23 seem to make it obvious that BA has a big effect on overall run generation.

Sure doesn’t sound like much of a leading performance!

Within physical boundaries (reasonable rest) & mental expectations (maturity) the Manager inserts players and PLAYERS make things happen or not. Strategic decisions fall on the Manager but hitting a ball or not looking foolish trying to hit a ball or not throwing into the middle/middle of the plate are ALL driven by the players. There’s no accountability to the manager that a $35M/yr player can’t hit - leads the league in batted into double plays!! Buxton has fantastic exit velocity over past 15-20 AB’s - CC has approximately 7-8 hits in past 4 games - Kepler is playing inspired defense and has had two 2-hit games in past 4 - Gallo is contributing………they all didn’t just react to Baldelli’s taking accountability for their play. It may be we’ve run across some just “OK pitching” but it appears that hitting with 2 strikes is glaringly better over the past 4 games……adjustment by hitters.

Last year we had Zero options most of the last 4 months with available players…….last 2 months was a joke. As of today Varland is working on things at AAA and we have a trio or so of guys that will get removed from the roster by September 1 because we’ll have better options. Buxton has to be hitting the ball as hard and as often as anyone in the game for the past handful of games. CC went 4-5 last night behind a couple other decent days at the plate. Kepler & Gallo have both contributed (Kepler w/glove twice!) since they left Atlanta. Kirilloff remains steady. Things are shifting a bit in the right direction with the right/key guys! I was a “Buxton to IL & DFA at least one of the 2 (Kepler/Gallo)” a week ago. 162 games takes patience.

Experience is a big deal - confidence is even a bigger deal if paired with experience………he seems to have both right now. He could be a nice shot in the arm, innings eater in August/September as a starter. He could be the long reliever as well. With his kind of stuff, it seems you may only want guys to see him once? He’s Maeda with less velocity. He does/did have a nice sinking fastball at on point. Once he’s up he can’t be sent down without someone else claiming him. If he’s successful in St. Paul over the next 3-4 weeks I would expect they’ll make a spot for him……for no other reason, just to keep others fresh.

I do/did like Burnes for $25 million per year for 4 years or maybe even a little more money. This move was in order to not have to trade for a pitcher. Keeping Arraez allows the organization to trade a high ranking prospect……plus a guy like SWR. Say we traded Lee & SWR & we didn’t have Lopez but still had Arraez hitting .320 plus Burnes under contract - better off? Burnes, while a professional, is pissed off at an organization that has shown him no respect in the recent arbitration process. I believe that is part of the results the Brewers are getting on some small level. Players peaks & valleys all vary - I get that piece of your argument - seems obvious. Verlander’s comeback, or at least a good piece of it, is due to his sitting for well over a season and the benefits of having a rejuvenated attitude & right arm after Tommy John surgery.