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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    Sorely lacking …. “….dynamic multi position player….” sounds to me the exact definition of Wiili Castro in ‘23 - not sure what Mr. Fangraphs was watching??
  2. JD-TWINS
    I don’t get the predicting of guys stats to change for the better, or for the worse depending upon what we want to happen. We can hope they go one way or the other but have no idea & neither do they. You could have said the same thing about Kepler and his return to form at beginning of ‘21 & again at beginning of ‘22…….nobody thought fans would rally around him now, at the end of May ‘23. Nobody knows. I know Alonso hit .217 & struck out over 150 times - the impression I have is we already tied for the league lead in HR……& the league lead for K’s. Nobody’s paying part of his salary to take him! We can’t sign him at a minimum of $25M going forward. He’s a lower value with a one year stint being the ceiling. Moot point to justify IMO. I’d trade Polanco to free up his $10.5M & focus those $$ on pitching.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Last year was rough to watch - one feels for the guy……,but if you drop his first year breaking in at age 21, and the shortened Covid year of ‘20, & include his 140 game season ……..it’s 7 years of averaging 83 games per year. Last year or the last two years haven’t been the problem - it’s his entire career. His injuries are routine and doubtful they can be solved.
  4. JD-TWINS
    I might slide Carew & Oliva in there as franchise competition but he’s at a vibe I haven’t had since Morneau was healthy!
  5. JD-TWINS
    I guess one can hope for an outlier from him……..other teams pay attention to an entire career though and a few months of him getting hot in ‘24 won’t override the past 10 years. …….If he plays well, we won’t want to trade him……,.I like the guy! Loved watching him play CF at the highest level but I seriously doubt there’s any chance he’s going to be physically “better than ever” this Spring. Reality is, he played 140 games one year. The other 8 years combined he’s averaged 66 games per season…..that’s pathetic. No offense to Byron but it’s not a good history!! He’s a great athlete but he’s fragile - it’s not a decision of his, just the way it is.
  6. JD-TWINS
    Trivino seems like the only possibility to me. Can’t have uncertainty in the budget and pay Woodruff $11M to not pitch in ‘24. Then there’s the ??? of whether he’ll be effective in ‘25. I’d stay away from these other possibilities.
  7. JD-TWINS
    To me, Jenkins is a great prospect, described as “Roy Hobbs” by one contributor. Am not going to debate his ceiling. However, after year 1 in the SHOW, if we traded Royce Lewis it could be the worst trade in MLB history - up there with the Reds trading a “too old for his age” Frank Robinson or the Cubs trading a young Lou Brock. Royce Lewis is on the fringe of Stardom in the League after only a few hundred AB’s! Can only be stopped by health issues.
  8. JD-TWINS
    NO team would ever trade for Buxton…….even if the Twins paid 70% of his salary…….he doesn’t play & never has. 1 normal year of availability in 9 seasons. I too think Jeffers has more or at least “like value” to Ryan.
  9. JD-TWINS
    We can trade Polanco along with others on 40 man (Miranda - Larkin - Gordon - Headrick - Balazovic, etc.) as well as prospects outside our “no trade” list (Rodriquez - Festa, etc.) I let Varland be in the mix for 5th starter………sign a $10-$14M free agent arm like Severino to add depth & high upside. Trade is to Milwaukee for Devin Williams to push our Pen to elite for 2 years. The big guy in Pittsburgh could be a target as well although they probably don’t move a local & fan favorite.
  10. JD-TWINS
    Not a bad thought on how to get something done - we probably send Rodriquez & Gordon & Festa to Milwaukee as well as Polanco & an A ball guy to a contender & they send Milwaukee a prospect……..we get Devin Williams for 2 years.
  11. JD-TWINS
    I like Polanco to the Brewers for 2B help they need. They probably don’t want to spend $10.5M during a rebuild…..theoretically they are going to trade some pieces & rebuild in ‘24. They want guys that can help them going forward and with some control. I think we try to include Polanco as part of our package & let Milwaukee move him for prospects with another contender. Inexpensive alternative to Polanco, with some upside, is Nick Gordon. He obviously brings some flexibility to use in OF as well as at 2B. Burnes would be nice. However, he’s almost certainly a one & done rental though…….so I’d move off him and target Devin Williams. He’s under 2 years of control and he’s dominant in 8th or 9th inning. Also, he’s only about $6.25M this year…….this allows Varland to move back to 5th starter & a guy that can come up & down if needed from AAA with options. Polanco - Gordon - Festa - Rodriguez ……..Brewers will want top line prospects for one of the best relievers in the game! We take another $12.5M and sign Severino as a FA from Yankees…….that’s less than $19M to payroll to make our Staff elite. Severino is a health risk but has ACE stuff when right. Worth a shot.
  12. JD-TWINS
    These moves EXACTLY! Trade a couple prospects (Rodriguez & Festa) & Miranda & Gordon or Larnach to Milwaukee for Devin Williams. ($6.2M) Pen is now set for 2 years. Varland moves back to 5th starter. Sign Severino as FA from Yankees for $12.5M - risk, but great upside, & starter depth. Use Varland’s options as needed. My estimation after Polanco trade is $114M on payroll - we add 2 pitchers for additional $18.7M & we’re under $133M total! OR skip Williams & Severino & sign J. Montgomery for 5 years with escalating salary starting at $20M - $23M - $26M - $26M with player option in year 5 for $26M.
  13. JD-TWINS
    I was behind his .272 BA - defensive uptick in CF - 28 doubles & 9 HR all in just over 400 AB’s…….almost every day. Stuff happens. Miranda’s expectations to be a key piece in the core of our line-up were strong last spring. I hardly have given him a thought since July 1. Stuff happens Castro has stepped up - decent CF with a big arm - steals bases - tough to displace! Solano had a better year than we expected from Miranda for $2M. Trams evolve & move on with guys that are performing.
  14. JD-TWINS
    chpettit……even I think the trades suggested for Polanco & Kepler are far fetched to the max…….you shot me down the other day, rightfully so, with Polanco - Miranda - Winder - Rodriguez & somebody else for 1 year of Burnes……,,Peralta for 3 years at $6-$12M over those years IS THE BEST trade target for pitching in MLB……..,Jorge (plus 3 prospects, maybe) for him is pretty silly to discuss.
  15. JD-TWINS
    What happens if Buxton isn’t healthy (about 60% chance is my estimation) & Martin & Gordon aren’t hitting by late April. Grim!! I like to be positive here but the above scenario is very possible ……I can’t trade Kepler until somebody is pushing him out with their bat - not just an ability to catch a fly ball. I realize Kepler sucked for 2 yrs plus but he seems (over most of 4 months) to have found himself in ‘23. Gordon, with Castro - Wallner - Buxton - Kepler & Martin in the wings in St Paul with options makes more sense. Could trade Gordon with a cluster of other guys, i.e. Winder - Rodriguez - Festa to Brewers for Devin Williams? or with whoever for whoever - he needs to be lumped with other guys to bring back value……… Larnach becomes opening day 5th outfielder.
  16. JD-TWINS
    In another Forum Article I mentioned going after Burnes or Devin Williams. Burnes allure is obvious - only for a year though. Williams is controlled for 2 years. I really didn’t think Peralta would be available with 3 years of control left with Brewers. If we could do that - fantastic - I can’t begin to assume I know what the expectation might be for a Peralta. I like Williams because he’s generally been durable - he’s a fantastic 8th or 9th inning guy! His 2 years of control & only $6M range salary makes him very attractive. Festa - Gordon - Rodriguez - Winder……..all for Devin Williams………frankly, other than Raya - Lee - Jenkins everyone not on 26 man is up for consideration! This allows us to move Varland back to the 5th starting spot. We could go sign Severino for $12.5M as a FA depth piece that has real potential, with risk, but ACE stuff. If they move Polanco, & satisfy guys in arbitration (i.e. Farmer, Castro, etc.) the current spend is around $114M…………getting Williams & Severino takes us to elite staff status. Total budget at an acceptable $132M.
  17. JD-TWINS
    Seems like fairly logical progressions for the group………Soto is young & seems like a blue sky guy but am not close to the details. The MOST encouraging thing is that it seems to me, we need no action regarding CF help in FA or trade market. Obviously, need live bodies in ‘24 but the future looks solid!! Castro/Buxton/Gordon can hold it together, I hope! CF options going forward: Martin - ‘24 …Rodriguez - ‘25 …Jenkins - ‘26 Wallner moved to RF & Martin drifts to LF over time? With CC in place for 5 years……Lewis - Lee - Julien - Kirilloff - Severino as additional IF pieces, how are we serious about any other IF prospects we have in our system due to be ready in next 3-4 years?
  18. JD-TWINS
    If Twins are able to make a move for a rotation piece then having Varland working out of the Pen and being an “opener” once or twice a month is a great use of his abilities. Funderburk - Jax - Varland - Thielbar - Stewart - Duran are a nice front for the Pen. I do agree that it sure appeared the Twins were going to give Varland a chance to start - per conversations from both parties last September.
  19. JD-TWINS
    So after all the fury, your last 2 sentences are my point. I do know the Brewers are rebuilding so, though I don’t have their list of prospects & 40 man memorized, they need somebody in return for these 2 guys at some position. We have prospects at many positions that aren’t Lee & Jenkins. Maybe not good enough but worth a conversation here. The trading partner with the Brewers has some leverage as Burnes goes away for free at end of the season - yes, they’ll get other offers but I’m assuming the big boys with $$ wait til the deadline or after the season to try & get him for less. Do the Brewers want to spend $6.5M to keep him til the deadline or do they just move on? Would assume there’s still a little angst from Burnes over last year’s arbitration “cheapness” shown by the Brewers?!!? I like Williams just as much - just changes Varland’s focus & we improve. I agree, we disagree.
  20. JD-TWINS
    “….add an arm from the Farm” (maybe Festa?) ……along with Rodriguez and Winder & Larnach……I think that’s a real possibility (as good as they might be offered) for Williams. How many teams are going to go that hard for a reliever? It would be a hell of a risk for Twins! Polanco - Moran to a contender for a prospect & deal prospect & Henriquez to Milwaukee and try to get both arms from them. It’s a starting point. Either guy would elevate Twins big time in ‘24! We find out if they really want to move Williams and/or Burnes or if they are just talking.
  21. JD-TWINS
    Winder - Polanco - Rodriguez are all valued players. Maybe it’s Moran and one of our Top arms from the Farm? Larnach & Miranda are 2 guys that 1/2 of TD think are going to be revived in ‘24 in the Twins line-up……….I don’t necessarily agree. Brewers need guys that can play - another one or two with upside (agreed) and they need to dump salary. We can afford to give up an arm from the farm along with Rodriguez. As I said - my assumption is they trade Polanco to another contending organization for another prospect. Sort out any 4 of these guys, along with Polanco for either Burnes or Williams. Williams may be the better deal - a little longer control - he’s a lights out reliever in either the 8th or the 9th…….allows Varland to get his wish and maintain his spot in the rotation.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Often in the TD submissions I see naysayers sighting that we play in a weak Division and that we made the playoffs in ‘23 with a weak line-up and we were “lucky” to get in with 87 wins. Now that we have beaten the Blue Jays & were competitive in playing the Astros in October it seems there would be many more believers. I still see comments stating that if we don’t sign a Power hitting 1B or a FA Centerfielder or if we don’t trade for a #1-#2 starter to replace Gray we’ll be sunk. Other observations…….we were 14-5 during the regular season v. the last 4 teams standing in the NLCS & ALCS. We didn’t get all of our wins against the Central Division. In ‘23 we were 15-19 in games that were started by Sonny Gray. I’m not saying he wasn’t a very solid piece to have, but his presence obviously wasn’t the key to our finishing 87-75! …….Can Louie Varland be part of 15 wins in 34 games started? Seems plausible to me. Would I like a more proven starter - absolutely. The TD Forum had an author either today or yesterday that had the ratings of each team’s roster as presently constituted, with FA’s blowing in the wind at this point. The TWINS were ranked as the 6th Best Roster in the game at this point. If Kirilloff is healthy & we can make a deal for a pitcher via FA ($$ available once we trade Polanco) or some extravagant trade move (5 guys for Corbin Burnes) we have an excellent chance of winning the Division. PLAYOFF ROSTER has Varland back in the Pen with Stewart - Jax - Funderburk - Thielbar - Duran……..,Rotation may have a new guy or we go with the Core Four we presently have. Line-up has healthy Kirilloff playing 1B hitting .275 with Julien/Farmer platoon at 2B & CC and Lewis on the left side. Wallner - Castro/Martin - Kepler and Lee & Buxton available to DH with the 2 catchers. That’s a solid club without us turning the present roster upside down! I don’t think we’re very far away with the guys we have as of 11/14/23.
  23. JD-TWINS
    Agree with the overview of Larnach - the desire to give him a chance - couldn’t play him at 1B ahead of Gallo (not an option) late ‘23 - Gordon should maybe be offered up first….etc. To me, heavy watcher of MLB Network ….skimmer of The Athletic…….every day reader of TD Forum, there’s no obvious trade partners for pitching ……..who wants to trade proven starters or arms in general???? …….NOBODY, except maybe the Brewers. My slant is the following: Either Miranda or Larnach (1 of them minimum) has a chance to be on an MLB roster for a number of years - maybe both. Maybe not stars but functional, depth pieces at a minimum - reasonable thought? Winder (when healthy was on a Bailey Ober level in ‘22) Moran - Sands (1 of them minimum) have a real chance at an MLB roster year in & year out - maybe 2 of the 3 - reasonable thought? Rodriguez our 20 year old power hitting CF…..a highly regarded prospect with a nice upside. Jorge Polanco - would rank #1 or #2 Free Agent 2B available IF a FA. Solid D & switch hitter with Pop, when healthy……$10.5M salary comes with him. We trade these 7 guys to Milwaukee for Corbin Burnes & Devin Williams……one year rental on Burnes & Williams for a couple years. Our staff becomes elite immediately! Brewers shed salary and start their rebuild with 6 guys under team control for a handful of years……..the assumption is they do not want Polanco’s salary so they investigate a separate trade partner for Polanco to get a couple of prospects to help their rebuild. Can others out there get behind this thinking? Maybe we alter it a guy but the gist is we believe in our offense and with these two guys totaling $18-$22M total (saved $10.5M with Polanco move & have now to spend) we have the best set-up guy in the game, in Williams, to go with our best closer in the game, Duran. We then have Stewart - Jax - Varland - Funderburk - Balazovic/Alcala - Thielbar to go along with Williams & Duran. Corbin Burnes added to our rotation along with Chris Paddack gets us back, at a minimum, to where we were with Gray & Maeda in ‘23!! Best staff in the game and we don’t alter our core with Polanco, being the only real contributor being moved, and Julien/Farmer platoon at 2B to take up the slack.
  24. JD-TWINS
    Very good analysis be Nick! Farmer is better on D at all 3 positions he or Polanco may play. The $3.5M difference in salary………. .255 BA (career .255) & 120 games (lost a month after getting hit in the face) in ‘22 for Farmer…… .256 BA (career .270 & .235 BA in ‘22) & 80 games in ‘23 for Polanco. Cost - Durability/availability - D flexibility - consistency all fall to Farmer. Keep Kepler - Farmer - Vazquez…….he is 4th best defensive catcher in league & can’t trade his $10M salary I throw Castro - Gordon - Martin into our outfield options………all ahead of Larnach.
  25. JD-TWINS
    I completely agree on Farmer. Gallo is gone - Polanco is still hanging on for $10.5M……..agreed there as well, he needs to be part of a trade. Julien/Farmer in a platoon at 2B………Lee is coming by July 1 to some infield position. Gray - Gallo - Polanco - Maeda - Mahle - Taylor - Solano are all gone and that’s approximately $52M!………arbitration guys will cost an additional $7-$8M up from last year. If we can trade Polanco (to shed his $$) & maybe re-sign Solano for $3.5M the budget is around $155M - $52M + $7.5M + $3.5M = $114M at this point. If we believe what we read…….before re-signing Solano…….we are at $111M & have $10M - $30M to spend and still reduce budget into range FO has stated as acceptable.
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