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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    Big chasm between MVP & productive……he’s averaged less than 70 games per year over 9 years…….granted, slightly higher w/o Covid year. Bottom line is he is a highly talented athlete that is relatively fragile - not that unusual. I’d like to shoot for 110-120 games. Bigger, #1 ask is to be healthy for October!! Start 30-40 games in OF (1 or 2 times per week) & DH 75 games & Pinch hit 5 games. That would be a VERY productive season for Buxton. That’s 75% of all games in ‘24 when his average has been under 50% his first 9 years. .230 BA would be ask #2. If he can do that he’ll stumble into 25 HR & 25 doubles & strike out less. He had 17 of each XBH in 80 starts in ‘23…….he wasn’t healthy in ‘23 either while hitting the 17 HR & 17 doubles. Honestly, don’t care if the plan is to steal ZERO bases to maintain best health. The “play hard til you drop” mentality/mantra makes no sense to me. We have plenty of options to catch fly balls in CF - we need the BAT PORTION of his $15M salary maintained through the year. He didn’t perform as a DH to his, or fan’s expectations in ‘23, because he was hurt most of the time ……..not because “he can’t hit as a DH”…,.,,that’s ridiculous!
  2. JD-TWINS
    Forgot about displacing Taylor’s K’s - that’s a welcome change even though we step back defensively a bit. I like Castro’s odds of being pretty good in CF given steady opportunity …….fast, good arm, very athletic overall & a real solution. Anyway, my thought was to kill two birds with a few stones in a trade. Hopefully, SOONER THAN LATER. Help the staff/Pen both for under $20M. Trade the stones for Devin Williams of the Brewers. They are going to step back and move Burnes at some point - Woodruff is gone. They are rebuilding with youth no matter how they portray the short-term to their fans. They always want to get cheap controllable pieces. We send them 3-4 guys for 2 years of Williams starting at $6.25M in ‘24. Any package we may give up for one year of Burnes is worth 2 years of Williams………then sign Clevinger to fix our rotation depth. $13.5M/yr. for two years with a player option for 2nd year, so if he is tremendous and wants to test the market he can. 131 innings & 3.77 ERA in ‘23. Rotation fixed - Pen is elite ………$ to afford both by trading Polanco.
  3. JD-TWINS
    One can disagree with certain players getting a slight advantage due to reputation/years of experience/etc. - it’s real and has been for 100 years (i.e. Maddux - Glavine - many hitters). Not right, but real. Bottom line is he was a rookie and after striking out looking a half dozen times, one needs to adjust - I realize he may have had an argument or was correct a few times. Walking back to the dugout shaking your head is not the answer. Gotta protect the plate with two strikes - one of oldest adages in Baseball.
  4. JD-TWINS
    Agreed, don’t see the value of adding France & frankly, doubt Seattle is trading him at an affordable $7.2M. Twins don’t save much in Salary either for what you & many would consider a lesser player than Polanco. That said Polanco is declining over a fairly long stretch……..might he bounce back, maybe? ’22 - .235 BA & 108 games ’23 - .256 BA & 86 games Career .270 BA ………..batting efficiency is dropping and his availability/reliability has certainly dropped significantly. He’s not at Buxton’s level of IL time but we can move him before it gets worse (can’t move Buxton) & we can re-coup $$ to spend on pitching. I think he’s probably moved to allow Julien a starting spot for 120 games……….Buxton will again clog the DH spot for 50% of the games.
  5. JD-TWINS
    Agree on the left side & right side defense. Hope CF works out. I think it is covered with existing, rostered options. K% will go down w/o Gallo & an improvement by Buxton ……..gotta say it bothers me to see Julien strike out looking as much as he does - no stats, but seems like about 1 of 4 are looking? Walking is a great tool but with 2 strikes one needs to protect the plate on some level - he comes off like he thinks he’s earned Ted Williams status. Steals are a nice add but we can’t manufacture speed out of a mostly set line-up. Seems it will fall to Lewis - Castro …..maybe Wallner & Kepler sprinkling some in here & there………Buxton’s ability to contribute will depend, as usual, upon his health.
  6. JD-TWINS
    Giolito is signed, good. I think Twins should offer Clevinger a two year deal with the same enticing 2nd year opt-out for the player! Player gets security of a 2 year deal at a slightly lower rate but can prove himself & re-negotiate with Twins or leave after year one. $13M/year. He threw 131 innings & went 9-9 for the lowly White Sox in ‘23 with a 3.77 ERA. Don’t know why nobody is talking about him? Pablo Lopez had a 3.66 ERA.
  7. JD-TWINS
    Agree that Twins should be a favorite for Division at this point. If CC hits .265 & has 20 HR’s & 30 doubles (all very likely) along with his defense, he’s a value because he has a presence that breeds winning with the young guys…….can’t pay much for intangibles (we all agree) but it seems to have value with this younger club. If Buxton hits .235 with 25 HR & 25 doubles & is healthy for October, he’s a real value. He had 17 HR & 17 doubles in 80 starts while playing hurt 50% of the time (86 total games) in ‘23. Need him healthy for 100 - 110 starts (30-40 in CF) and all is good. Last year Twin’s payroll was 17th in baseball at $154M……..leaving $104M to spend outside of CC & Buxton. Supposedly, in ‘24, the team’s payroll will be at a ceiling of $130M, a 15.5% reduction. That’s $80M to spend on the rest of the club outside the two expensive guys ……….Mahle - Maeda - Gallo - Gray - Taylor - Solano - Pagan…….these guys add up to $45M & are all gone. If we trade Polanco, we have the team, as it sits, plus $20-$25M to spend prior to Opening Day. Doesn’t seem to be that much of an issue IF they actually spend $130M.
  8. JD-TWINS
    Completely agree on Castro in CF……he also switch hits & has a great arm! No reason to expect some 30 point regression in his batting average as is speculated on here often. Many here describe him as being needed as a “super utility” guy as he seemed to be in ‘23. Changes after 4/1/23…….Lewis is healthy and solid at 3rd…….Julien was an idea & Polanco was hurt - now Polanco should be traded & Juilen should man 2B with Farmer as THE principal depth at all 3 glove spots in the infield………..Wallner was a potential guy at some point - now he’s the everyday LF……..Lee is coming mid-summer. We need Castro in the OUTFIELD & he’s capable to play CF daily. I see him starting 80 plus games there ……Buxton maybe 35-40 games there ………..Martin or maybe Gordon taking the other 45-50 starts. Just don’t see a problem outside of Castro getting hurt. If he starts 1/2 the games in CF we have problem solved and it still leaves plenty of games for Rocco to manipulate the line-up & use his speed and defensive flexibility as he sees fit.
  9. JD-TWINS
    Dwight Evans - Roberto Clemente - Reggie Smith - Tom Brunansky - Tony Oliva…….don’t recall any of these guys shifting to CF at age 30 either. Steak & Walleye & plugging a hole in CF with a near Gold Glove right fielder??? The Twins - Baldelli, love his defense in RF. Do they wish he could flex to CF in a pinch? Sure. They have 4 other options rostered now going into Spring Training. No reason to hate on a guy for wanting to continue to play a position he’s comfortable with and has had exceptional success playing. CC isn’t moving to 3B or 2B for Brooks Lee anytime soon.
  10. JD-TWINS
    Lee - Lewis - Julien can’t all play at the same time in the infield more than 15 - 20 games in a full season. CC IS THERE. If, and I would agree, Kirilloff is best at 1B, then we piece playing time together for this group this year and Lewis moves to LF by ‘25……….or we trade Julien. Buxton isn’t going anywhere so there will be a perpetual log jam at DH……not a real good outlet for Julien. If Lewis moves to LF we have the best possible RH hitting corner OF. I see this becoming real in ‘25 with Wallner going to RF. Lee - CC - Julien - Kirilloff infield for ‘25. Lewis - Buxton/Martin - Wallner outfield for ‘25. Seems fairly probable.
  11. JD-TWINS
    Trade Sands straight up for Stuart Fairchild of the Reds. He’s their 5th OF’er with time at AAA last year. He’s Martin with experience for CF. He was kept on big club late September when Bader was released. RH hitting OF that plays mostly left field & center field. Good speed. Controllable & playing for minimum and an opportunity. Reds roster is clogged with young talent & they are probably moving Jonathan India to OF this spring. Seems like a win - win.
  12. JD-TWINS
    His WAR in ‘23, inclusive of his fine defense, was .6. Just not anything of interest for more than $2.5M. Why not just sign Taylor for similar defense - better power - similar average - continuity?………I don’t know what Bader will sign for…….another writer here had him at $10-$13M………don’t recall if that was per year or for two years? If either are correct (assuming 2 years), Taylor could be signed for same.
  13. JD-TWINS
    Taylor made $4.5M I believe, in ‘23. Castro - Buxton - Gordon - Martin have CF covered, at least until the trade deadline, at a minimum. I get defensive WAR and the need to not have a butcher in CF but it’s not like hiring a rocket scientist. We have capable guys under contract. No need to create 2 issues by moving Kepler from RF to CF. He’s a proven, effective RF - leave him there. One of 3 guys in the game that hit .300 & have over 30 XBH after the break in ‘23!!
  14. JD-TWINS
    Bad news is there’s only about 25% of starts by LH pitching - 30% on high side. Can’t see paying Bader when they already have guys that are rostered - not to potentially thrive in 40-45 games. Don’t see why Gordon or Castro can’t play CF 100 games? Gordon started about 45 games there in ‘22 and he played 2B as needed since Polanco was hurt & he played LF. Whether he can hit like he did in ‘22 again is up in the air. Really don’t see Castro struggling to match Bader’s .235 BA from either side of the plate. Hopefully, Buxton can start the 40 games v. LH pitching in CF!
  15. JD-TWINS
    Lopez - Ryan - Ober - Paddack - Varland - (New Guy) Stewart - Jax - Thielbar - Funderburk - Winder - Alcala - Duran - ……. and a combination of “whoever’s” to get us to August……….Canterino to throw 20 innings from August 15 to October 1st………..Varland to the Pen again by September 10th ……..seems like a plausible plan. Festa - Headrick - SWR to supplement rotation as needed.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Twins will possibly sign a FA starter? If not, they will definitely trade for a starter. Ryan at 160 innings is probable Ober at 145 innings is probable Lopez at 180 innings is probable Paddack at 110 innings is probable Varland at 90 innings is probable New Guy at 140 innings is probable Festa - SWR - Headrick - Winder combining for 16 starts at 5 innings, another 80 innings, is probable. That’s 905 innings from starters…….don’t think this is blue sky whatsoever……….seems once team picks up a guy they are set!
  17. JD-TWINS
    Sorry, I realize you aren’t the only guy suggesting Harrison Bader as a decent option for the club. He’s a Free Agent who was released & he’s 29. That should tell everyone something. He’s terrible!! His WAR last year was .6. In ‘23 Bader had 331 AB’s and had 7 HR & 21 total Extra Base Hits. Buxton was playing hurt at least 50% of the time that he played in ‘23 and in 304 AB’s he had a .8 WAR, playing zero defense AND he had 17 HR & 36 total Extra Base Hits. We have plenty of guys that may or may not be able to hit that can catch fly balls in CF. Harrison Bader is not the answer. Castro - Buxton - Gordon - Martin…….to me that’s what we roll with in ‘23.
  18. JD-TWINS
    The reason is, the Team is stuck. Nobody’s trading for Buxton. Buxton’s not approving a trade to any team. Period. Buxton has averaged less than 70 games per year for 9 years. He has one season over 100 games. Starting him everyday until he can’t go due to injury isn’t very bright! They are paying him and his bat, when healthy, can be of benefit. 40 games in CF & 80 games at DH gives the team 50 more games than his career average and it gives him. chance to hit 25-30 HR……25-30 doubles. Those numbers are of value over 75% of the team’s games. He had 17 of each in ‘23 playing in 86 total games - 6 or more of those games were him pinch hitting. At least half of the games he played in he was hurt. Playing him in limited games in CF may allow the team to have him available and healthy in October.
  19. JD-TWINS
    RH hitting 5 tool guys & 2 MLB quality starters are big asks with an organization spending considerably less in ‘24. They need to move Polanco’s salary and his inconsistent availability over the past two seasons. With Kepler & Wallner in the corner spots against RH pitching (75% of games) the need for a big addition RH bat seems unnecessary to me. Team’s performance v. LH pitching went up considerably in 2nd half last year. With CC’s health better, Buxton’s health better, Miranda’s health better, Jeffers starting in 25 more games, it seems the RH bats are in the line-up and competent enough to allow the team to focus on pitching help. (Farmer - Lewis - Lee - Severino - Martin are all part of the RH potential in the line-up) Sign Clevinger for $13M/yr for 2 years with a player option in the 2nd year. Trade 3-4 guys to Milwaukee for Devin Williams. Pitching staff would be considered elite with these 2 additions at less than $20M total per year for next 2 years. After Polanco is moved it only changes Payroll by $9M from wher it is at today.
  20. JD-TWINS
    Sounds a lot like Mr Buxton.
  21. JD-TWINS
    180 innings is an awfully tall order for a guy that had 10 starts in the Show last year. That’s a Pablo Lopez like total. Even, best case, I can’t imagine him getting more than 130 innings as part of the back end of the rotation revolving through the 4th & 5th spots in the rotation. He seems to be an obvious guy to transition to the Pen for mid-inning appearances in October. To keep his & Paddack & Ober’s innings under control, Twins need to sign or trade for that new guy in the rotation. Am assuming Woods-Richardson sees 5 starts & Festa for a handful as well after the 1st of July into September.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Lewis - .285 BA…… .350 OBP …… 30HR Julien - .255 BA ……. .350 OBP …… 22 HR Wallner - .240 BA …… .320 OBP ……. 32 HR My hopeful results for our young trio in ‘24 - also hoping these results are based on them being able to collect 525 AB’s or more, each. Somewhat lofty expectations in Sophomore seasons for these guys but with nearly twice the PA’s for trio (about 600 PA each) the BA & OBP will be there but not in extremes……seems they are all talented enough to reach these HR expectations.
  23. JD-TWINS
    One of the reasons guys don’t play 150 games anymore, or even 140……….Jorge Polanco ‘22 - 108 games…….’23 - 86 games……Career .270 hitter & in ‘22 - .235 BA ……..in ‘23 - .256 BA. Playing through injuries can lead to breakdowns and regression in numbers. I don’t have a crystal ball and am always happy to see steady, familiar faces in the line-up. Enjoyed watching Jorge. Just pointing out he “played hurt” some & it appears to have caught up to him over past 2 seasons. Lewis: 130-135 games ……4AB’s x 135 games = 540 AB’s for year or maybe 620 PA’s…..seems reasonable? 30 HR would be fantastic - RBI take care of themselves depending upon spot in line-up & if he hits .285 I’ll be happy!……….trying to keep an OBP of .350 or better would be assumed.
  24. JD-TWINS
    Let’s break the mold in ‘24 and sign a FA that can get guys out….gonna cost some $$!! Mike Clevinger costs us no trade assets, which brings value to the organization, and he pitched 131 innings last year……..3.77 ERA, about 27th in Baseball……..9-9 with a brutal White Sox club………..$26M for two years and a player option for year two would be a great motivator for him!
  25. JD-TWINS
    REDS aren’t trading Ashcraft. His ERA was inflated to 6.50 or so early……..he had a stretch of really good starts before & Ftrr his calf injury. I live in Cincinnati and have seen Ashcraft pitch half-dozen times…….the Team & the Fans love him Not really sure why the Twins would be attracted? The REDS need a left handed outfield bat like they need a hole in the head. Fraley or Benson will have to sit & both are solid performers! Better than Larnach and comparable to Wallner offensively (good, but less power). Steer will be in LF essentially every day and Friedl will be in CF 140 games! There’s no match here. Reds covet pitchers after last year’s revolving staff due to injury. ………………. A guy I’d like to see the Twins trade for (I suggested in June of ‘23 a few times) is Stuart Fairchild. Good outfielder! RH bat. Controllable and inexpensive going forward………..Sands for Fairchild straight up! Fairchild can play all 3 OF spots - he would be a better option for outfield depth than Gordon & I’m a Gordon fan! RH bat and he can steal some bases - generally good speed. Good compliment to Wallner - Kepler - Castro - Buxton - Larnach………he’s what we hope Martín could do in OF this year but he has parts of 3 years of experience. 16 doubles in just over 200 PA’s in 2023. He needs a chance to play & Cincinnati is clogged with Steer going to OF essentially every day now. Noveli - McClean - India (may move to OF per organization) - De La Cruz - Enc. Strand - Candelario are all ahead of Steer in the infield, just because they can’t play OF. Steer will be in the line-up nearly every day …….he was voted their ‘23 MVP. Getting pitching FROM Cincinnati is a dead end.
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