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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    Who’s going to get outs in our bullpen Mike? Floro? Moran?…….Ortega is in AAA I forgot about Balazovic earlier - he’s reasonable. Winder & Sands can’t because Rocco won’t put them in the game. Stewart is a BIG maybe. We going to use Castro there too? Can’t just hope some rookie appears and is lights out.
  2. JD-TWINS
    Can Lewis get his head around playing OF again without it being a big mental distraction? With Lee coming in ‘24, that option with Lewis could be very valuable.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Wish thinking on Buxton. He’s not capable of playing CF. If he was he’d be playing there. Not sure how much more evidence we need. - it’s the end of July. The manager has publicly stated he can’t play OF! It’s not happening. BEST solution isn’t realistic either, which would be Buxton to the IL……can try him out with roster expansion in September if desired. Hanging on to Gallo to hedge against others getting hurt…….may option a young guy to carry Gallo through August & bring whoever back in September & let Gallo go Oct. 1. October guys: Lewis - CC - Polanco - Kirilloff - Farmer - Solano Jeffers - Vazquez Julien Taylor - Castro - Wallner - Kepler Who plays 3B - 2B - DH is all semantics at this point, we’ll have to see. BEST 13 guys here though. Possible, that if Buxton comes around he could take Taylor’s spot but doubtful if he can’t play any defense…….need a back-up CF on roster. Most likely, we only carry 12 pitchers…..4 starters, into the playoffs. This leaves a spot for Buxton at DH - pinch hitter as needed.
  4. JD-TWINS
    So, no surprise, after watching Floro last night there’s no high leverage spots for him in the future. Need 2 guys in the Pen. If we don’t get at least one we are in real trouble. Now we see Stewart as a maybe, and leaning toward, “probably can’t rely on him even if he comes back!” Thielbar sounds like he’s ready. Pagan - Thielbar - Jax - Duran - Floro - Winder - Moran - Stewart……..that’s our best look for August at this point. The last 3 guys are all questionable for one reason or another. If Seattle is willing to take guys that aren’t on our big club, we should deal for control through next year. Again from me, Suter/Hand from Rockies or Fulmer (Cubs may not sell?) or any other reasonable guy WITH experience is what we need. If Moran & Winder & Duran we’re all 2-3 years deeper into their careers with same stuff, I’d be confident. They all get anxious in tight spots and don’t know how to deal with it yet……..IMO. Spells unreliable!
  5. JD-TWINS
    Renfroe isn’t any better than taking a risk with our AAA RH hitting corner OF Kyle Garlick!! No real difference & much easier to execute. Nobody is taking Joey Gallo in a trade for anyone/anything. Kepler for Renfroe is nuts since we face 70% RH pitching at a minimum.
  6. JD-TWINS
    Our guys (starting 5) need rest! There’s a drop-off between Kuechel and Ryan or Gray or other 3. When they’re at their best, granted, that’s correct. I think Maeda is fine with his repaired arm and his limited innings to date in ‘23. The drop-off between Ryan of July v. Ryan of first 3 months is big. The difference between Gray of April/May v. last 2 months is vast. They need to freshen up……….I don’t care if it’s Kuechel, or Winder as a 3 inning starter or whatever……….we need a plan in August to give guys a break. My contention is that potentially a guy with Kuechel’s experience and new found confidence (0.69 ERA in St Paul) could have a handful of starts on the par or better than Gray & Ryan have been lately. Can he throw 5 plus innings and give up 4 or less runs. That’s the realistic bar needed to be met to get these guys rest. Seems worthwhile to run him out there a couple times, at least, to see what happens. Worst case we still get to skip a start or two by 2 of the other guys.
  7. JD-TWINS
    Agreed on Gray, that’s why I said we should hang on to him. I just commented on a post stating we should shop Gray to the AL East and the other AL Playoff teams……the specificity to AL is what I didn’t understand. I do think they have given Kuechel a runway in St. Paul to prove he can get guys out. Seems to be positive. Our starting 5, particularly Ober & Ryan need some rest if at all possible. A possible solution is optioning those two because they are young enough, or place them on IL with minor ailment. Kuechel is the path for this. Better running him out for 4 or 5 starts and see what we have v. burning up one or two guys that have been effective to date. Ryan & Gray are fading. Ober is near his historical high in innings. This gets Ober - Ryan - Gray - Lopez a skipped start or maybe 2 starts in a couple cases. Could help re-set them.
  8. JD-TWINS
    Padres need LH hitting this year, if they are deluded, & going forward in ‘24 …….they have nobody on left side, except Soto, hitting over .200. They have a solid Staff! Forget about Hader and get a controllable piece that may be their 3rd or 4th guy in Pen……we need solid depth! Larnach & Polanco & should be a slam dunk. Polanco has basically not been on the team this year - Larnach is still undeveloped potential. If either works out San Diego is happy. Opens a roster spot going forward. Btw, Gallo has no trade value. We are trying to move people around so we can get to “roster expansion” and carry everyone through September. They don’t want to DFA Gallo and then need him 10 days later……….with some option/IL creativity through August we can bring him to end of September and then drop him from roster. Right now Kirilloff can’t play with a finger up shoulder. Gallo is a stellar 1B! Great guy to have around until we have zero room for him.
  9. JD-TWINS
    Why would we trade him in “the AL?”…,,,NL teams need pitching and have relief assets…..,& we don’t have to play them in the playoffs. Every 5th day we could toss Kuechel out there or Varland or both in same day with a piggyback approach for 8 weeks. Contrasting styles - turn a line-up around with LH/RH approach. What can we get if Gray is only a rental? May be more advantageous to just hang on and get what we can from him every 5th day.
  10. JD-TWINS
    Need the “for sure defense” & the appearance of a resurgence at the plate. He sees good pitches hitting in front of Wallner. That will continue when Lewis gets back & drops in behind him as well. He’s above average hitter for last month & it feels like he gets to 22 HR for the year if he stays in the line-up. I’d keep him because hoping Larnach can hit “as well” and know his defense would be inferior is not a good move! Larnach strikes out more - not as good of a defender - very little HR pop. He can just be traded this winter if we think we should move on from Max.
  11. JD-TWINS
    So I don’t think S.D. is trading Hader nor Snell……they have 4th-5th best Staff ERA in NL. The guys (at least a couple) around Hader have to be decent. According to MLB network this afternoon, they need LH hitting. Trade Polanco & Larnach for S.D.’s 2nd best reliever OR best reliever with at least a couple more years control. Realistically, we’re trading unproven potential with Larnach…….another guy who is a proven effective pro, who has only been able to play 30 games in ‘23 due to health. If either guy works out, it’s a win for San Diego & we get a decent relief arm in the near-term & going forward. They get a couple bats immediate & losing one guy in the Pen shouldn’t derail any chances they have this year! We open a roster spot by bringing the RP in and displacing a guy who is on the current staff. That’s one deal - need a 2nd deal for another reliever & we’re good!!
  12. JD-TWINS
    San Diego has a good staff ERA. There must be a controllable arm in their Pen, a guy other than just Hader. Watching MlB network and they (Padres) need left handed hitting……seems a veteran with pop and a controllable OF would be worthwhile picking up now while available. That said: Larnach & Polanco to S.D. for a controllable reliever ……..set-up type guy ……..the guy prior to Hader, & a prospect.
  13. JD-TWINS
    The answer is to acquire 2 pitchers that are worthy of pitching when needed & carrying 13 pitchers……..at least until October. Need 2 guys between now & Tuesday. Let’s go FO!!! Winder & Sands on a new path but not on our 26 man.
  14. JD-TWINS
    Polanco & Larnach & an A ball SS prospect together for a reliever with some control. They go to a team that’s trying to build with real players & as soon as next year. 2 middle of the order bats at 2 different points in their careers. Frees up needed 26 man roster spots! A team like Colorado works with a 2-3 different relief options.
  15. JD-TWINS
    S.D. isn’t moving anyone off their staff - they still think they are in the Wild Card. I see both sides of this. If somebody really wants him they’ll let us know. Trading him for rental is tough but necessary to do to compete at times. We need Pen help!! See last 2 ball games. However we make that happen, that’s what we need to do. Next year dumping Kepler is fine - right now he’s our best defensive & offensive OF (sad) - cannot trade nor DFA!!! Gallo is gone for sure next year - maybe in a few days? Keeping Larnach to try next year for a 3 month experiment everyday is an acceptable plan - make a decision next July. Wallner everyday in the other corner. Gordon/Castro/some RH bat from within our system as 5th OF. Spend $$ on pitching in ‘24!! Extend a couple young guys. Taylor - Gallo - Polanco - Kepler - Mahle - Maeda - Gray - Solano all add up to $70M…….we can maybe re-sign Maeda for $11M & Solano for $4M………that leaves us $55M to help us forget/fix it if we make a mistake with Trevor Larnach at the deadline in ‘23!
  16. JD-TWINS
    So Jordan H. sounds like a rental and potentially volatile due to his control issues. I’ve seen over 2 seasons Moran’s inability to find the zone in leverage situations. Can’t see obtaining a guy that we need in a key moment and he can’t throw strikes! He’s young but no longer in team control? If I were to get a reliever, experience is what I’d look for because so so much of success late in the game stems from what is between the ears. Young guy with the A’s that may be a great long-term value …….he’s a winter acquisition. We don’t need somebody that may be good in the future……..we have that with Ortega & Moran & Balazovic now………we need stability & effectiveness! Experience. Fulmer - Suter - Hand - Robertson……….these guys have different ways of getting hitters out but they don’t panic - they don’t toss the ball around the zone and not in the zone! Spin rates - other stats, can be used to see trends or for delineating between guys with great stuff but I like “walk rate” & ERA as ways to evaluate at this time of year………ERA can cheat good relievers with low innings but we’re 4 months into the year…,,,40 innings plus under the belt. Under 3.75 ERA and less than 1.8 walks per 9.0 innings and a guy’s worth looking at in the Pen. Obviously, 1.5 walks & under 3.00 ERA is much better. Velocity or wipe out slider or great change-up are of great value. Getting 2 strikes routinely without an out pitch is tough to get behind - get outs, whatever way works for you. “Cost” & “value” were brought up in your message. IMO, if we signed Joey Gallo for an $11M experiment & we live with trading Encarnacion-Strand (he’s Miranda plus 80 points on the batting average & way better power), we can trade a number of guys in our organization for a rental reliever. No need to be careless! Either we think we can make a run in the playoffs with our squad and we acquire some Pen help or we live with Cole Sands & Co and do nothing.
  17. JD-TWINS
    Watching MLB network…….Angels are 5th in runs scored without much of Rendon. Theoretically, he’s coming back. They have a masher of a catcher coming back from injury. Add Polanco……..maybe Headrick or Moran. This makes them offensively formidable, which is their goal to attract Ohtani going forward! Also, it helps their pitching now as well They are only 4 games out of Wildcard! Don’t have any idea what our return could/should be? Offer to MLB: Polanco - Larnach - Miranda - Headrick - AA young SS prospect (not Lee) - Moran - Ortega - Winder - SWR……………we need 2 EXPERIENCED Relief Pitchers!!!
  18. JD-TWINS
    Like the addition of speed thought! In my opinion, Farmer - Castro - Solano have absolutely cemented themselves on this year’s roster. Farmer is doing everything they wanted/expected, same with Solano, & Castro is probably exceeding expectations! Taylor isn’t far behind. We have a roster crunch coming - pretty obvious to those who follow the team. With the Angels coming out as buyers, I think we trade Jorge Polanco for whoever you & FO think brings value to our organization. The Angels get a guy that is proven hitter for their “playoff push” and he can play 2B or 3B as needed. We add to our depth at AAA level and free up a spot on our 26 man roster. Buxton back for Larnach this morning. Lewis - Polanco are coming back soon. Somebody has to go!! Again, IMO, we trade Polanco & we option different guys through August to enable us to keep Gallo on roster for depth & positional flexibility. September 1 the roster expands and he can spend the rest of the season with the team. Optioned guys would be Wallner most likely. Only other guys are Castro or Julien and neither of those seem plausible, even for just 10 days, unless one needs a mental break. Doubt that’s the case with anyone? Could DFA either Gallo or Taylor. Could have Buxton pull a hammy for the IL for the month of August. Best option. Without trading Polanco, we have a bigger roster problem!
  19. JD-TWINS
    YES - concerned! IMO, if Kuechel goes out again and pitches well in St. Paul, take advantage of Ryan & Ober having options to AAA, bring Kuechel in for August - September. He can give Ryan 2 missed starts and 13-14 days off, maybe more if timed correctly. Same approach with Ober. You can bring one guy back on Gray’s starting day and have him skip one turn and duplicate process with Lopez…….with roster expansion Sept 1 he can stick around through the month and provide more rest. Kuechel could be a real luxury over the last 2 months - fingers crossed!
  20. JD-TWINS
    Can’t see bringing the guy leading the league in K’s on to the team leading the league in K’s! His defense is on a high level, near Kepler but his role would be for 25-30% of pitchers - lefties. We have a CROWDED roster once Lewis & Polanco & Buxton return. Don’t see a roster spot getting used up for production in this limited role. Renfroe is down in OF & at the plate…….there has to be better options……..no moves is probably our best move? My assumptions are based on us keeping Kepler through the deadline, which seems to be the smart play.
  21. JD-TWINS
    Is there a spot or can there be a spot at AAA soon for Lee? Would like to see him get a good month of service in St. Paul to see how he looks at that level v. just a handful of games at year’s end……seems to have mastered AA - right? ‘24: We have Farmer under contract next year. CC & Kirilloff are locks at current IF positions,……..I guess, unless they flip Julien to 1B? Julien is in the mix on the right side. Where do Lee & Lewis fit, at this time next year, in the Twins line-up?? Lewis - CC - Lee - Julien infield by July? Kirilloff - Castro - Wallner in OF (not exactly stellar D?) That’s a solid 7 man core!!
  22. JD-TWINS
    Experience & guts on the mound are key late in games. Suter has been there. We cleaned up the Jorge Lopez situation last night. If we get Suter and Thielbar back we could skirt having a jittery Moran on our staff the remainder of this year - or we have more latitude on picking spots for him. He’s a 75% of the time success guy & we need 85-90%. Nobody’s perfect - understood. Twins are, IMO, trying to displace Moran, Ortega, & Sands from our current Pen for the remaining two months. Adding depth where there might be AAA options left with current guys on staff. Pagan is our #8 guy. Balazovic is 7th. Floro could be our 6th guy. Stewart could be 5th guy. Suter could be 4th. Thielbar could be 3rd. Jax & Duran are 2 & 1 respectively. Stewart could be a month or more away - possibly not at all! We need somebody else, ideally, so we have depth for injury back-up……..Suter (or like) helps us move Ortega & Moran into depth roles. Youth call-ups are nice when they work out & everyone looks smart - can blow-up in key spots as well. I like Michael Fulmer or Suter or Brad Hand & their experience & intestinal fortitude!
  23. JD-TWINS
    Hope Lopez does well in Miami. Twins certainly needed to make a change. Floro seems like a similar level pitcher with less up & down. We just lose the lack of a contract for next year & if he looks decent maybe we offer/pay him some or more of what was targeted for Lopez? Good move - need to start getting the clubhouse squared away with some certainty on the roster. …………another couple weeks and things should calm in that regard with Thielbar - Lewis - Polanco - maybe Stewart
  24. JD-TWINS
    First, Moran let everyone down nibbling and walking 2 guys with a 4 run lead! Then a double. To your point, with a 4 run lead, why not give the ball to Cole Sands & tell him he needs to get 6 outs? Again, Moran put everyone in a bad light but Sands had tons of rest & 4 runs is a considerable lead…….so, if not then, when do you use him?
  25. JD-TWINS
    RANDOM: I looked at our 26 Man Roster this evening to see what they did with Jorge Lopez spot………he’s no longer there……..only 12 pitchers on the roster. No surprise, no big deal with a day off tomorrow. The odd thing is Larnach isn’t on the roster either - doesn’t look like he’s been traded - why not listed……..thought it may have something to do with the paternity leave deal with Buxton? We only have 12 guys on the everyday position player list. No Buxton - No Larnach???
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