JD-TWINS

& I think Rocco was riding that vibe but he killed the momentum…..I understand it can happen to anyone but reality is, after Saturday’s success, his % to succeed again was pretty slim.

Gray has a 4.00 plus ERA since May 1. He’s got 4 wins on the year and none since late April. He’s a free agent in 10 weeks. Why would he bring a haul? Nobody is going to trade an MLB ready prospect for a 2 month rental. Other than CF & Catcher, I don’t think we have any needs in the organization. We’d end up getting 2-3 guys that will be on a list in 5 years from now & they will have played zero innings for Twins……..we should use him through his contract to try and get another 11 starts where he keeps us in the game most times. If, somehow, he turns it up down the stretch we may even try to sign him for a couple years.

Remember “our 2nd half schedule” started when we played the A’s & continued through the Sox, those 6 games were against 2 of the worst opponents…….they’ve already been played & won. We got the Royals & Cardinals on the road soon - those 2 are the other pretty weak record teams we have left.

Base running: Did anybody see the replay video of Kirilloff hitting into the double-play early in the game?? Was disappointing - not sure if somehow he thought the ball got through the right side or what - he didn’t run hard out of the box! He takes off with effort once the 1B throws the ball to 2B…….there’s a distinctive shifting of gears in his running. Disappointing - not all guys hustle all the time - that double play stalled our inning!! Fortunate to win today!

8 of 10 & we haven’t played perfect by any means! I think if we get to 86 wins, the Division is ours……….that’s 33-30 from here through September. Pretty realistic! Guardians would need to go 37-29 to tie us.

Jorge López is lucky he’s not on the IL again after the upper deck HR & 3 HBP outing earlier this week. The fact that we threw him an inning as well as Pagan for an inning and we remained unscathed is a flippin miracle!! I understand the paper move of substituting a reasonable contact guy batting RH for a LH hitter that K’s too much - but Vázquez has done nothing since mid-April to warrant him PH for anyone!!!!

How can the window be shut? Paddack is under contract……Varland is under contract………..if he holds up (rebuilt arm 16 months ago) Maeda could be signed for $10-$12M maximum. Ryan - Ober - Lopez are all in their primes, the entry side of their primes! Lewis - Kirilloff - Julien are all guys that are real hitters and they are all young as can be. CC & Buxton are around for 5 more years. They may not be the offensive stars we signed up for but they are supreme athletes with egos & competitive drive……they’ll be OK (Buxton once healthy). Not counting on Buxton in OF until I see it regularly. Wallner seems to be a serviceable defender, not great, but with a great arm. Decent #5 or #6 hitter in the line-up for 5 plus years. Castro has speed - a gun for an arm - defensive flexibility……a roster spot for him for another 3-4 years at little cost. Lee - Rodriguez as a couple probable “can’t miss guys” coming in ‘24 or ‘25. Spending around $150M this year on salary. After this year we shed Gallo - Polanco - Kepler - Gray - Mahle - Maeda - Solano Taylor………..that’s $70M plus/minus $3M. Re-sign Taylor to fill the roll he was intended for this year - depth & insurance. Solano, just because he’s going to be 36 & we can get him for $3.5M (he has proven he hits) and we can DFA if we choose. Taylor for $5M…….that leaves us $61M from this year’s budget…….Sign Maeda for $11M. Now we are down to $50M to spend and not exceed this year’s budget. Early sign Duran, Ryan & Ober. Start Duran at $5M in the early years of the extension……….same with Ryan, only he gets $8M in the first year……..same with Ober at $8M. 6 year deals that all escalate $3M per year………something like that? The security given over 6 years & the much larger check than $670K/yr will be good motivation for them. This leaves $29M to then go & sign a FA starting pitcher, if they like or sit on the extra $$ to pick up a guy at the deadline that we can get & then extend! Trade for Stuart Fairchild - REDS former starting CF - sent to Triple-A after 2.5 months in ‘23 due to log jam in Cinti. .750 OPS this year & fast & under control/cheap! Lewis - CC - Julien - Kirilloff in the infield with Farmer & Castro & Solano for depth is a great start to ‘24! Walner - Castro - Taylor - Rodriguez/Larnach - Fairchild……….possibly spend on a FA OF bat?……..I don’t think it’s necessary with Martin & Rodriguez & Lee all coming……..once Lee arrives we get Julien to 1B & Kirilloff to a corner OF slot. Relief help can be found - been proven this year…….Ortega - Headrick - Stewart - DeLeon , etc…….shift a starter or two, i.e. Balazovic! I don’t see any holes nor depth issues nor near-term age issues…..neither too old nor too young. Good veteran presence with a bunch of young talent!!

Seems he is developing into a decent trade piece by this time next year or if he finishes hot, maybe as part of a package to another team this winter?

Strikeout exchange between him & Gallo. Teoscar is more productive when he makes contact.

My slant is Moran was cruising & they didn’t want to use up another arm in ninth…….Sands would be the probable exchange for Kuechel…….however, after the performance a couple days ago, can we seriously think the Twins will let Jorge Lopez pitch for them again…….in ‘23? Mental health stint on IL followed up with some good and bad since his return. Then this week happens……upper deck 2-run homer followed by 3 different guys getting hit by pitch. Brutal to watch & worse to experience!!! Can’t imagine Lopez has anything left mentally at this point. Needs some re-set and a DFA may be in his near future.

Gotta look at & have confidence in this year’s. umbers - then it’s a YES on paper. He’s a rental though so a good pitching prospect no……one that’s got potential upside, SWR - Headrick, maybe. Writers have to quit putting Alex Kirilloff down as potential trades so we can “upgrade” …..he’s definitely in the top 3 hitters we have, if not the best. Silly to say we should trade him for Bellinger or Goldschmidt or anyone.

Cron doesn’t make sense to me when we have a better hitter on the roster in Solano…….if we need a RH bat at 1B we have one. Cron is familiar and has a nice ball juiced ‘19 but at this point Solano seems to be the right guy……been doing it most of 4 months.

He hits LH pitching well and is being compared to Michael A. so I’m pretty sure he is a right handed bat…….turns out he hits from both sides. My guy is former starter in ‘23 for the Reds, Stuart Fairchild. He’s been optioned to AAA because Friedl has to play everyday and now Steer is playing OF 50% of the time due to all their IF call ups & Votto’s return. He’s squeezed out! Fast RH bat - plays CF - 15 XBH in 156 AB’s in ‘23 - .743 OPS and he’s at AAA with no way back to big club. Can’t cost much to attain!! Basically a young Michael A. Taylor.

Gordon was our LH hitting CF going into this year…….played infield because Polanco was slow in mending. IMO, Castro should get a shot at a full-time spot in CF in ‘24. He needs some time/reps but his speed & arm are intriguing. He makes things happen on the bases. Switch hitter - with limitations. Certainly should be our 4th OF going into ‘24 with the ability to play 3 infield spots as well. Gordon may get a chance in Spring Training after some fall ball or winter ball to help sharpen timing after missing so much time. He’s an OF 90% of the time here on out. Gordon may be interesting for some other team as part of a trade? Decent upside.

Kirilloff to the OF - Gallo gone - Solano to 1B.

I sure hope guys improve at a minor league stop - may be a good baseball mind - no real opinion here v. Baldelli. Interesting thought.

Manager handles pitching changes - in game strategy - etc. …….,,hire him where his experience & strength lies - hitting coach!!!

If Maeda can hold things together over the next 8-9 weeks we should definitely try to re-sign him. He’s be a value at $12M & that’s a $5M raise. He’s 35 now but with a re-built arm he may have a couple more good years left & he’s a very adequate 5th starter!! Paddack - Varland should have the other spot covered………hoping for good health!! Ryan - Lopez - Ober are the core through ‘27!!!

Why would the Cardinals (anyone) trade an .850 OPS guy…….potential guy……..in this case, Walker?

He’s not done - surely! Trading a guy that is in his same mold, that’s 10 years younger, doesn’t strengthen the team. Cards want controlled pitching …….give them Moran - SWR - Winder…….maybe stretch to Varland v. one of the others? Kirilloff batting 3rd behind Julien with Goldschmidt & Lewis coming up sounds great!

Completely agree on the 1 for 1 trade. Timing & upside are not in our favor. Goldschmidt in our line-up for 2 playoff runs would be exciting though! By mid-August: Sub Kirilloff into LF for Gallo (released) play Polanco/Farmer at 2B batting .260 with Julien displacing Buxton (to IL) at DH, along with Solano as needed v. LH pitching….…Lewis back at 3B. We gain 70 points at 3B - 100 points in LF - 110 points at DH in batting averages. We gain an RBI guy in middle of our lineup hitting .285 & we lose Gallo & Buxton & Farmer/Castro at 3B. Moran - Winder - SWR to make it happen. Is that enough upside/depth for the Cardinals? Maybe we go deeper? This move, with some assumed health, makes us a contender in the AL!! As we all know, just displacing Gallo & Buxton with internal present options would be a good thing - with no Goldschmidt trade.

The Cardinal’s finances aren’t hurt if they finish last once every 15 years. They’ll draw their usual 3 million people. Why would we trade Festa / Varland - Kirilloff for a guy that has 1 season of control after this. The emphasis in the article seems to be written by an Assistant GM for the Cardinals. “Let’s make sure they are happy……” I’m a realist & understand the trade needs to work for both sides. Why would we trade a 1B that the Cardinals can build around for years (hence their motivation) plus 2 young arms they would like and take on a guy for 1.3 seasons??? Kirilloff is a building block in St. Louis but he sucks for the Twins future???? Goldschmidt for Varland - SWR - Moran, their pitching request, may make some sense. They get upside arms with control & we get a guy to play 1B for 2 playoff runs ………we use Kirilloff to displace Gallo in LF. No financial concerns involved. Win - Win. Kirilloff is potentially Justin Morneau - he’s in his first, healthy full year. Look up Goldschmidt’s first full year………..very similar numbers……Goldschmidt had more AB’s in 2012 - more homers - more strikeouts - same OPS, around .830. Kirilloff for nearly anyone that’s not a dynamic athlete (15 guys in baseball) is crazy IMO, at this point in his developing career! He has 35 double, gap power but probably only 30 double speed. He can hit 20 HR a season easily - has 9 now in ‘23 with 195 AB’s. I’m guessing .285 career BA. - .825 OPS and an average, at best LF & occasional 1B/DH. Would love Goldschmidt - makes us a contender immediately!!! Can’t trade Kirilloff to make it happen.

Play-off Line-up with POLANCO & LEWIS back……. v. RH pitching: CC - SS - .231BA - .715 OPS Julien - DH - .318BA - .968 OPS Kirilloff - 1B - .285BA - .831 OPS Kepler - RF - .224BA - .730 OPS Polanco - 2B - .250BA - .741 OPS Lewis - 3B - .326BA - .827 OPS Castro - CF - .247BA - .688 OPS Jeffers - C - .261BA - .787 OPS Gallo - LF - .182BA - .770 OPS V. LH pitching: Taylor - Farmer - Solano - Buxton in & Gallo - Polanco - Kepler - Julien out……..Kirilloff to RF - Castro to LF - Farmer to 2B Looks like a competitive club to me with Thielbar & Stewart back & reasonably sound health elsewhere. 1 less pitcher, down to 12 guys in playoffs.

Seems Buxton or Julien is going to have to play 1B next year - may sound crazy but if you can’t run routinely it’s the place you end up. Check with Donovan Solano - ask Luis Arraez - ask Ernie Banks - ask the other 1,000 guys that ended up moving from SS or OF to 1B over the course of their careers.

The guys is helping us win games nearly everyday……..he allows in game moves to be made seamlessly with his flexibility ……..no reason to option him to see if we have a couple guys in AAA that can do the same things. Grass is always greener…… Castro has been a steady contributor! I don’t care if guys in AAA are getting a shot - play great and you’ll get a shot when one’s available. Play well and you’ll get that acknowledged and you’ll stay in AAA. No need to “see how guys will do”……the Big Leagues are not for experimentation unless a team is out of the race or steadily declining. It’s been acknowledged, our biggest problem is hitting in our 3 hole……..it’s not our Utility Guy!