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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    What does that mean? IMO, a no-trade is to give the player the ability to control his future, potentially as part of a mild discount in his salary. Don’t understand your lack of seriousness that this clause as a deterrent in a potential trade? Who’s trading for a guy that’s averaged less than 70 games per season over a 9 year career?………& if he hits .240 or above & has 30 HR & similar total of doubles, he’ll never be considered as a trade piece by the Twins. Just don’t see him going anywhere other than a potential mutual release to FA & a % of his remaining salary paid. Maybe this works? Maybe deferred $$ from contract & he retires? Twins are on the hook is the bottom line.
  2. JD-TWINS
    It seemed to me that Chisholm to CF wasn’t well received & that he really wanted to be back in the infield - also, sounded like he excelled in CF after a couple months of growing pains.m, so who knows? Rodriguez can find a home somewhere in their OF as you state. I’d then move him and Julien and that’s it for Luzardo. If needed, Vazquez and less $$ to supplement his salary. Maybe we give them $5M total for the 2 remaining years. Losing Julien would be felt in our depth but between Lewis - Farmer - Martin - Lee we could cover 2B & 3B (Miranda at 3B some if he hits)……could even retain Polanco if necessary. If they’ll take on Polanco’s contract and we throw in $5M/year against Vazquez cost - OK. We keep Julien & still move Rodriguez & Winder…….this seems reasonable. I’m still targeting Luzardo if at all possible. FA signing of a pitcher seems like a big stretch! We move guys for Roger’s or Luzardo we’re in great shape. ………………… Another move is to find a home for Vazquez & assume it only saves Twins $5M/yr. Move Polanco for $10.5M. $121 current total as of today Payroll Total, less the two veteran trades and we’re at $105M…….sign the FA you were considering above - J. Montgomery for $26M for 5 years and the Payroll Total is $131M and a 15% reduction from 2023! Rotation is set - great depth for Infield intact - Bullpen is set - OF support is coming with Martin & Rodriguez evolving.
  3. JD-TWINS
    They don’t want to spend money in FLA. I don’t see Kepler as a reasonable piece due to his cost & potential to end up hitting .225 for them. I like Vazquez in Miami to fill a need & Twins pay for one of the 2 years - give them $10M in cash considerations………..they need a CF so either Martin or E. Rodriguez …………..Festa as well, as the last piece. Solution at catcher with Vazquez - Rodriguez is their CF of the future - maybe include Gordon to help add depth at 2B - SS & CF in short term - Festa to supplement the pitching. Seems that these 4 guys help fill holes they have and they are controllable pieces for their club. I’d trade Julien if needed but he doesn’t seem to fit their defensive needs. LUZARDO in return to the Twins. I don’t like moving Lee or Jenkins…..essentially anything else in Farm System is an option. Gordon hit .272 with 28 doubles in 405 AB’s in ‘22 when he last played with Arraez…….I would think there would be some mild respect there? Certainly, if they want Kepler or Polanco, we should be open to moving them as well.
  4. JD-TWINS
    So, I understand the fact that losing Castillo changes a rotation. However, all I’ve read for a year is that Seattle has a slew of good young arms, along with Castillo & Robby Ray. Why do they need to plug a hole from anywhere else other than internally? Why would they consider Blake Snell?? The FO can better pick guys Seattle would like and who we might part with……..I like Castillo a lot. Have been a proponent of signing J. Montgomery but if Castillo is available for 4 years at $21M - he’s a better value than Montgomery at $26M.
  5. JD-TWINS
    If Kirilloff is every dry guy, essentially, …….(RH starters nearly 80% of the time), he’ll get 500 AB’s. I’m pretty sure that no matter how much we hope, Buxton will only play 30-40 games in CF in ‘24 with 70-80 games at DH. Miranda may see 225-250 AB’s best case…….With either Farmer or Lee on the roster, they’ll be backing up Lewis & there’s less room for Miranda at the plate.
  6. JD-TWINS
    Seems the FO focus will remain pitching to start the year (hope so) & the guys we have in organization as position players need to fill the roles. Miranda or Severino picking up starts at 1B will be key. Kirilloff at 1B maybe 130 games max. realistically. Julien needs to handle the defensive responsibilities at 2B. Martin &/or Gordon really need to be a part of the CF mix by early summer. Paddack - Ober - Ryan all have solid starter talent………hoping for consistency this year, not perfection, but generally good outings w/o serving up HR’s & walks.
  7. JD-TWINS
    Great analogy with the Individual distance runner v. a relay Team in a 9 inning race - well put!! Regardless of what we grew up watching, you & I, as well as 30 baseball organizations, like the chances of the Relay Team better!!
  8. JD-TWINS
    My suggestion, let’s use the Ohtani contract as food for thought to sign an inning’s eater, Jordan Montgomery. As the market swells for FA pitching $$ expected with Yamamoto expected to get $300M sight unseen, I’d like Twins to act. My fantasy signing for our innings eater, 157 innings, 178 innings, 184 innings over the past 3 seasons. 3.68 ERA over 7 years in the Show. Very nice playoff history! 5 years $150M. ‘24 - ‘25 $18M/year …..’26 - ‘27 $22M/year ……’28 $25M/year - $45M balance paid out $9M/year over next 5 years. Our rotation, with health, is set through 2027! Reasonable contract for both sides? OR, we start with our current Payroll Total of approximately $114M & trade Polanco to get to $104M. Then sign Montgomery for $26M/year Payroll total of $130M - a reduction of nearly 16% from last season. As I type here at 9:35 EST, Al Lieter is suggesting Jordan Montgomery to the TWINS as a great move for the organization. Fingers crossed.
  9. JD-TWINS
    Had to respond somewhere……Trent Grisham is terrible. .184 & .196 BA in the past 2 seasons with 1,079 AB’s & 304 K’s. We have so many better options internally I won’t try to list ……essentially anything we could think of to try is better, no matter how much of a reach. Bader is not much better! .650 OPS in ‘22 & .622 OPS in ‘23. Centerfield in ‘24 : Castro - Rodriguez (underdeveloped) - Martin (underdeveloped) - Gordon - Kiersy …..,IMO, any of these options are better cost benefit (benefit ceiling is pretty low) than either of the guys mentioned above. Also, Buxton MAY play 30-40 games in CF in ‘24.
  10. JD-TWINS
    Both wildcard & the head to head competition once the playoffs start - those are my concerns. ……..The Vikings don’t want to improve the Cowboys at almost any cost - right? Paranoid?
  11. JD-TWINS
    Lugo was a reliever for nearly his entire time in the Bigs. I look at it like, he was given an opportunity and he proved he could perform as a starter. His career innings are fairly low due to how he’s been used. His ERA was top 20 in the game. Certainly worth serious consideration! I am sad.
  12. JD-TWINS
    I’d stick with Castro’s development as a CF with 20-30 games of Buxton & 20-30 games of Martin in 2nd half. Castro is a switch hitter that had a .750 OPS in ‘23 & hit .258. Good speed in OF & great arm! Castro had 33 steals……with more game time he could reach 35-40 steals this year. Very valuable. If it’s shedding Kepler’s salary, it’s not a real value exchange to me. A slightly lesser glove & a lesser hitter than Taylor is not what we need in CF. Not terribly concerned about .5-1.0 reduction in defensive WAR over a season relative to contributions regularly on offense.
  13. JD-TWINS
    I am not trying to knit-pick here, I realize the discussion about trading for Seattle pitching is just an example, principally due to their potential excess of good arms. It’s potentially a great add to our staff. However, I don’t like sending one or two solid starters (every day guys, i.e. Polanco & Kepler) to a League/Playoff rival. Maybe paranoid? I’d like to try to move proven veterans to the NL as a first course of action.
  14. JD-TWINS
    Understand the concept on value but I saw last week that he was one of 4 guys (Kepler, Cory Seager, & 2 others) after the All-Star break that hit .300 or better and had 30 extra base hits. With his steady defense, Twins absolutely have to see if this continues offensive level or even 85% of it would be nice! He had a 121 OPS plus for the season and his first 10-11 weeks were brutal - he was under .200 BA at one point. He then had sustained success over the last 14 weeks.
  15. JD-TWINS
    Bummer - They’ll all be gone (FA arms) by the time we sort out what to do - just going to have to cross fingers & hope! ….This drives Wacha up to $18M for 3 years, more than likely.
  16. JD-TWINS
    HR’s are a problem with Ryan - no question. He just seems to get loose with his command within the zone. The ERA separation between Gray & Ryan at the end of June - maybe 70 innings for each - could be 5 runs or so, not a different stratosphere.
  17. JD-TWINS
    No opposition to this - seems like anybody that throws 95.8MPH on average with 3 options left could/would/should be a value to support the bullpen depth! Not sure why Dodgers would move him?
  18. JD-TWINS
    How many times have you received a raise and then when the economy shifted or the business weakened, you took or told the ownership to pay you only 40% of what you agreed to 9 months prior??? Nobody is concerned here with who your daughter dates……….CC is not the problem. FO and ownership knew about the unstable TV deal and we’re ALL aware of the fact that athletes have up & down seasons, particularly if they’re hurt. Did your future son in law give back any money during the 2.5 years of absolute brutal performance at the plate prior to late June of ‘23? I like Max - I’m not in love with Correa, but come on!
  19. JD-TWINS
    It’s doable - don’t like displacing Kirilloff, our “Natural” just 18 months ago. Theoretically, he will be healthy and even stronger than ‘23 and available April 1. BA of .270 in first “full” season with a .793 OPS. IMO, he needs to play & start 130 games. Wallner & Kepler both had OPS north of .800 in ‘23. I like Kirilloff and hope he can reach his potential of 20 HR & .285 BA in a near perfect world. As I state essentially every day here, I take whatever assets we think Brewers will take for Burnes & shift off of him to obtain Devin Williams. He’s at $6.25M in ‘23 (which we can afford while keeping Polanco, etc.) & under control for TWO years. He can affect 115 games over 2 seasons. This makes our Pen elite and lessens the burden on the starters. Then, trade Polanco and maybe Vazquez (throw in $3M per year for salary help) to sign a Wacha or Lugo or such. Varland locked in as a starter. Williams at the deadline might be more workable? Plant the seed now with Milwaukee. To me, everyone not on 26 man nor Lee & Jenkins is tradable.
  20. JD-TWINS
    Am assuming they trade Polanco for some benefit but principally to shed his salary v. his limited availability. ‘23 OPS for projected starters v. RH pitching: .840 - .750 - .793 - .920 - .816 - .711 - .877 - .732 - .859 Julien - Castro - Kirilloff - Lewis - Kepler - CC - Wallner - Buxton - Jeffers ……..the only anticipated regression might be Castro & Wallner - right? Castro may have 25 sac bunts with this line-up as well as 25 bunt hits. With talents like a healthy CC & Buxton sprinkled through the line-up is a big advantage! CC & Buxton can’t be worse than ‘23 & still be playing so this is pretty encouraging.
  21. JD-TWINS
    Burnes as a rental at $14M for a bunch of trade capital & then sign Hoskins………that’s a pipe dream.
  22. JD-TWINS
    To me, expectations need to be tempered. There is no perfect team - no perfect staff. This, “we need to trade for a co-#1 or a #2 guy to start playoff games”, or else, is a little over the top. Arizona was in the World Series in ‘23 & take a look at their staff. They won 84 games during the season. Chins up Twins fans!! Let’s be realistic, Gray was 15-19 in his starts (lack of run support, true) a .441 winning % in ‘23. He won a playoff game and got out of a major jam v. Toronto by picking a guy off 2B. His other playoff start wasn’t good!! The team didn’t lose some savior! He was very good and fun to watch but he’s not Tom Seaver. If we got Lugo (as an example), who carried a 3.53 ERA last year, for $13M it would be a huge plus. Added depth to keep himself, Ober, & Paddack fresh through the year with Varland contributing heavily as a starter. Playoff Staff: 12 guys………. Gm #1 Lopez Gm #2 Ryan - Paddack as a piggyback Gm #3 Ober - Varland as a piggyback Gm #4 Lugo if needed with short rest days, doubtful Funderburk - Thielbar - Canterino/Alcala - Jax - Stewart - Duran Seems this is a very competitive staff up against nearly any other team. Can we trade Polanco & Vazquez (kick in $3M/year to make happen)? This allows team to then take current payroll down to $100M & sign Jordan Montgomery for $26M……I like that as well but don’t see it as a do or fail!
  23. JD-TWINS
    I live in Cincinnati and, trust me, watching Mahle pitch is a lot like watching Emilio Pagan. Constantly waiting for the inexplicable walk after up 1-2 in a count and then a HR! All the “baseball pundits” said when Mahle got out of Cinti he would not give up as many HR due to bigger confines. First start in Minneapolis, 3 HR. Pretty good talent but not a good mental approach - always trying to strike guys out and then high pitch count and then walks and then HR’s. He’ll drive you crazy.
  24. JD-TWINS
    Well said! Lugo - Wacha - etc. would be adequate to provide us with enough depth to push through the season. Enables Twins to ease the load on any guy in the rotation during July/ August. These guys (FA) are affordable but probably won’t be around for more than another couple weeks. Completely agree on acquiring the #1 v. #5 guy ……doesn’t matter. Can he pitch in the playoffs and maintain an ERA of 4.00 or better? That’s the target baseline. Our top 3 guys are capable & completely agree that Paddack showed potential to be the #2 if he can hold up with reasonable health. Team was 15-19 in Gray’s starts…….he had an effective playoff start & had to pick-off a guy at 2nd to end an inning/rally in that one. Other playoff start was subpar. Gotta be real about what his contribution really was and not just be enamored with his ERA & competitive nature. I get his wins/losses were run support related at times………bottom line is he didn’t shine in the playoffs & Louie Varland can be a .500 pitcher!!
  25. JD-TWINS
    Who trades a #2 or #3 starter w/o some very attractive pieces in return? We traded a batting champ for Lopez (essentially Miami’s #3 guy long-term). So we need to kick up some high end prospects or forget it - nothing’s free. The only starting pitchers that might be traded that have that kind of ability are one year rentals. I don’t like this as we need to give up too much with high end risk due to just one season. Burnes & Glasnow, even if we committed the trade capital, cost $14-$15M & $25M this year & then they’ll walk. If the Brewers want to re-tool (trading Burnes, maybe Adammes, & Woodruff is hurt) they may follow through with what was put in print a month ago, & field offers for Devin Williams? If we commit to the proper package we can have him in 55 - 60 games affecting the outcome - 2 years - $6.25M in ‘24. Our Pen is elite! If we trade Polanco, $$ are available for a middling FA like Lugo for the rotation & our depth is golden.
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