JD-TWINS

Maeda may be our best looking starter by the middle of August? 2.50ERA over last 5 starts. Looking dominant. Fresh, surgically repaired arm! Can’t afford to move him.

Don’t think he should be pushed forward into the first slot in a play-off series……doesn’t seem fair to him. I can’t imagine going past a game 3 in any series without him starting a game though! He’s mentally & mechanically rock solid! Excellent control nearly every time out. If the season ends & we’re in a battle to the wire and he’s up next due to how rest falls, I have no problem throwing him first. Maeda with a 2.5 ERA over last 5 starts………Ober……….Gray, Ryan, Lopez is awfully good v. anyone. There are flaws with the latter 3 & am hoping they can make adjustments from here on out!!

I agree - Maeda deserved a win in one of the last two outings…….Pen can’t be perfect. Offense needs to come up with a bigger spread than 2-1. Faced a tough opposing pitcher - happy to be fortunate to get past the Jax hanging slider with a win! Seems to be some momentum building in the dugout…….triple from Larnach, Kirilloff again with a bomb to the wall in LF in 9th, & Kepler 3-4. Fun to watch.

Learning experience, I get it, he’s in his mid-20’s playing professionally …..he’s not a Jr. in high school. Making 2 outs on the bases in one game is hard to do……….good news he gets on base at an alarming rate!! Really gone from a fringe guy a month or so ago, with a weak glove, to somebody that’s forced himself into the line-up……he’s exciting in the box.

Great question! If we bring Kuechel for Sands that seems simple in another week…….Thielbar & Stewart displace who?? Maybe no Kuechel & Sands opens one spot. Ortega - Balazovic - Pagan all seemed to have earned a spot! Balazovic may have options, not sure on Ortega? Could move down for short period to give others a look? Jax - Duran are in………Moran seems to make sense on the hill 75-80% of the time, good enough? They really seem to want to support Jorge - it’s the right thing to do. He looked sharp against Mariners last night. Great stuff. The ability to command his pitches along with his emotional state is up in the air……….do we trade him (Try) to give him a runway somewhere else & to open a roster spot? Moran - Sands - Lopez - Ortega seem to be the candidates to be displaced. Careful for what we wish for via acquisition!

Out at 3rd was careless. Probably shouldn’t get picked off at 1B either…..2 outs on the bases in same game screams “is this guy very bright?” ……can’t give away outs!

CC - Farmer - Lewis - Solano - Buxton (DH) - Jeffers - Kirilloff (RF) - Castro - Taylor……..the Twins line-up v. LH pitching. Do we need a RH bat? I’d take a big swing & trade Martin & SWR for Bellinger. CC - Julien - Kirilloff - Kepler - Bellinger - Wallner - Polanco - Lewis - Vazquez…….the Twins new line-up v. RH pitching. Buxton sits until we can expand roster in September……..once playoffs start we shift to 4 starters………Kenta goes to Pen and we drop to 12 pitchers total………..Polanco & Lewis batting 7th & 8th!!!

Headrick - Thielbar - Stewart can help “strengthen the middle of our bullpen…..” so I’m not sure how hard we look for relief help. I’d love to see Robertson here to help with the backend and push late inning guys to. Fairchild would be easy pickens out of Reds AAA system. RH former starting CF with a .743 OPS in ‘23. No room in Cincinnati for him. Grichuk out of Colorado would cost a bit but probably worth the upgrade in CF and at the plate. Bellinger for Martin & SWR is worth considering!!!

Didn’t seem to have a feel for his best pitch - the slider. He looked really sharp against the other guys he faced……really good stuff (sinker/fastball) just missed with a hung, spinning slider. I still like him with a little bit of rest - essentially never asked to go 3 days in a row. Got the win……JORGE off the scrap pile!!!!!!!

BUY: Larnach - SWR & a young AA or below SS talent/prospect……….. for Cody Bellinger of Cubs…..having an exceptional year & Boras is his agent. Maybe CC could have some pull? SWR & young prospect at A or lower for Stuart Fairchild of the Reds? Fast - .240 BA - .743 OPS this season & can play any OF position with CF being the norm …….currently at AAA. Only need one of these two - Bellinger would be a big shot in the arm for this year. Fairchild has a shot at developing into a decent to above average CF with some years of control left. V. RH pitching: CC - JulienDH - Kirilloff - Polanco - Bellinger - Wallner - Kepler - Jeffers - Castro3B Buxton - Farmer - Lewis - Vazquez on the bench. Gallo/Solano/Taylor would all have to go away…………maybe Buxton to long-term IL to keep Solano or Taylor active?

Kirilloff is routinely moved to the OF & Solano at 1B when facing LH pitching? Sometimes guys don’t match up well & get pinch hit for…….,,Larnach & Wallner …….if they “can’t hit MLB pitching” we can’t develop them in the Show - the games count. Larnach has over 600 AB’s in MLB & Wallner is now getting a 3rd shot this year……. seems they are getting a chance to show their potential to me. Can’t defend Buxton! .

In defense of the FO - I don’t think anyone thought Castro would perform such (signed for IF depth……OF too out of Spring Training) that he has no chance of being optioned - this is part of the jamb in the OF right now.

Larnach has to develop his bat - organizational failure is an excuse! He has had injuries that have bought him extra time…….this year needs to be a positive step forward and it’s not shaping up like that. Wish him the best. He appears to be another Kirilloff but he’s got to prove it with results. If we can’t get proper value, whatever that may be, don’t move him.

Cannot believe I’m saying this but if Kepler plays average baseball, offensively, .230 BA & .730 OPS & 20 plus HR he is very likely back in 2024 as we wait for Gordon/Wallner/Larnach situation to sort out. 1 & probably 2 of those guys are gone to start ‘24. Kepler seems to have cemented himself in RF for remainder of this season. Castro is too valuable with flex defense and speed to move. Taylor has too much value on D and can’t hit well enough to attract any suitors. I honestly think that Gallo may stick through the season……..his August may allow us (FO) to feel it’s OK to DFA him. I think he’s untradable …… can’t imagine anyone desiring a .159 BA with 10 RBI since middle of May!!! Why do the Twins? Seemed they were going to try him in CF over the weekend before the last minute scratch. Can’t sweat the clubhouse vibe at the expense of a usable piece down the stretch……without an improbable uptick, should DFA prior to September 1 if we can’t move him by deadline. Gallo in CF - Castro at 3B………Polanco at 2B - Julien at DH……..Wallner in LF & Kepler in RF - Kirilloff at 1B……….that’s a nice line-up with Joey in as the upside risk guy! Gets us a bridge to Lewis coming back strong. Larnach or Wallner?? Larnach looks the part! Wallner seems to be still on the ascent v. Larnach’s results in ‘23 - right? Wallner - Castro/Gallo - Kepler is our OF v. RH pitching. They seem to want to give Wallner a real look. When talking trade we probably let the trade partner pick which guy they want (Larnach/Wallner) v. us offering and creating position of weakness - we can always say no. Not a high priority other than potentially opening a 40 man spot because of that need.

Gotta beat somebody - we play the same teams as the Guardians & other teams in the Division. Beat Houston - Boston - NY - etc. ……can cherry pick results for either side of the argument…….they are 53-48 and still haven’t jelled for any real length of time. Polanco - Lewis - Thielbar - Stewart should all contribute to a push forward down the stretch.

& I think Rocco was riding that vibe but he killed the momentum…..I understand it can happen to anyone but reality is, after Saturday’s success, his % to succeed again was pretty slim.

Gray has a 4.00 plus ERA since May 1. He’s got 4 wins on the year and none since late April. He’s a free agent in 10 weeks. Why would he bring a haul? Nobody is going to trade an MLB ready prospect for a 2 month rental. Other than CF & Catcher, I don’t think we have any needs in the organization. We’d end up getting 2-3 guys that will be on a list in 5 years from now & they will have played zero innings for Twins……..we should use him through his contract to try and get another 11 starts where he keeps us in the game most times. If, somehow, he turns it up down the stretch we may even try to sign him for a couple years.

Remember “our 2nd half schedule” started when we played the A’s & continued through the Sox, those 6 games were against 2 of the worst opponents…….they’ve already been played & won. We got the Royals & Cardinals on the road soon - those 2 are the other pretty weak record teams we have left.

Base running: Did anybody see the replay video of Kirilloff hitting into the double-play early in the game?? Was disappointing - not sure if somehow he thought the ball got through the right side or what - he didn’t run hard out of the box! He takes off with effort once the 1B throws the ball to 2B…….there’s a distinctive shifting of gears in his running. Disappointing - not all guys hustle all the time - that double play stalled our inning!! Fortunate to win today!

8 of 10 & we haven’t played perfect by any means! I think if we get to 86 wins, the Division is ours……….that’s 33-30 from here through September. Pretty realistic! Guardians would need to go 37-29 to tie us.

Jorge López is lucky he’s not on the IL again after the upper deck HR & 3 HBP outing earlier this week. The fact that we threw him an inning as well as Pagan for an inning and we remained unscathed is a flippin miracle!! I understand the paper move of substituting a reasonable contact guy batting RH for a LH hitter that K’s too much - but Vázquez has done nothing since mid-April to warrant him PH for anyone!!!!

How can the window be shut? Paddack is under contract……Varland is under contract………..if he holds up (rebuilt arm 16 months ago) Maeda could be signed for $10-$12M maximum. Ryan - Ober - Lopez are all in their primes, the entry side of their primes! Lewis - Kirilloff - Julien are all guys that are real hitters and they are all young as can be. CC & Buxton are around for 5 more years. They may not be the offensive stars we signed up for but they are supreme athletes with egos & competitive drive……they’ll be OK (Buxton once healthy). Not counting on Buxton in OF until I see it regularly. Wallner seems to be a serviceable defender, not great, but with a great arm. Decent #5 or #6 hitter in the line-up for 5 plus years. Castro has speed - a gun for an arm - defensive flexibility……a roster spot for him for another 3-4 years at little cost. Lee - Rodriguez as a couple probable “can’t miss guys” coming in ‘24 or ‘25. Spending around $150M this year on salary. After this year we shed Gallo - Polanco - Kepler - Gray - Mahle - Maeda - Solano Taylor………..that’s $70M plus/minus $3M. Re-sign Taylor to fill the roll he was intended for this year - depth & insurance. Solano, just because he’s going to be 36 & we can get him for $3.5M (he has proven he hits) and we can DFA if we choose. Taylor for $5M…….that leaves us $61M from this year’s budget…….Sign Maeda for $11M. Now we are down to $50M to spend and not exceed this year’s budget. Early sign Duran, Ryan & Ober. Start Duran at $5M in the early years of the extension……….same with Ryan, only he gets $8M in the first year……..same with Ober at $8M. 6 year deals that all escalate $3M per year………something like that? The security given over 6 years & the much larger check than $670K/yr will be good motivation for them. This leaves $29M to then go & sign a FA starting pitcher, if they like or sit on the extra $$ to pick up a guy at the deadline that we can get & then extend! Trade for Stuart Fairchild - REDS former starting CF - sent to Triple-A after 2.5 months in ‘23 due to log jam in Cinti. .750 OPS this year & fast & under control/cheap! Lewis - CC - Julien - Kirilloff in the infield with Farmer & Castro & Solano for depth is a great start to ‘24! Walner - Castro - Taylor - Rodriguez/Larnach - Fairchild……….possibly spend on a FA OF bat?……..I don’t think it’s necessary with Martin & Rodriguez & Lee all coming……..once Lee arrives we get Julien to 1B & Kirilloff to a corner OF slot. Relief help can be found - been proven this year…….Ortega - Headrick - Stewart - DeLeon , etc…….shift a starter or two, i.e. Balazovic! I don’t see any holes nor depth issues nor near-term age issues…..neither too old nor too young. Good veteran presence with a bunch of young talent!!

Seems he is developing into a decent trade piece by this time next year or if he finishes hot, maybe as part of a package to another team this winter?

Strikeout exchange between him & Gallo. Teoscar is more productive when he makes contact.

My slant is Moran was cruising & they didn’t want to use up another arm in ninth…….Sands would be the probable exchange for Kuechel…….however, after the performance a couple days ago, can we seriously think the Twins will let Jorge Lopez pitch for them again…….in ‘23? Mental health stint on IL followed up with some good and bad since his return. Then this week happens……upper deck 2-run homer followed by 3 different guys getting hit by pitch. Brutal to watch & worse to experience!!! Can’t imagine Lopez has anything left mentally at this point. Needs some re-set and a DFA may be in his near future.