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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    Agree with the Lewis above Lee comments because he’s done it over a couple stints in MLB. Really though, who cares how they are listed, which is 2 or 6? What matters is, are they going to be a solid pro. Duran - check ……Lewis - Check …….Julien - check……Wallner - check……Kirilloff - check Lee - gotta believe yes……that’s a core of 6 guys. Varland - Martin have a great shot with a little more time……..75% chance. Martin may be for another team? Happy to hear Woods-Richardson is only 22……he has all of ‘24 & maybe some of ‘25 until we should expect him to help. That’s a lot more seasoning and a way to master command. Miranda……IMO needs to go somewhere else. Unless he’s really been hampered by his shoulder injury (possible) due to hiding injury (see Larnach or Ryan) I think he’s washed. Does not seem to have any pop with normal contact……..he’s somewhat positionless not a great contact guy………..he can’t squeeze into our infield plans which seems to be his only path. Martin - Miranda - Larnach are potential trade pieces to me for pitching. Lewis to outfield - Rodriguez coming after Kepler - Wallner is there too. ‘24 - ‘25 & forward.
  2. JD-TWINS
    No - he’s catching & hitting well when playing 50% - 60% of the time. We don’t need him at first with Gallo - Solano - Farmer & apparently Vazquez (who looked sharp at 1B) …….he needs to rest on his off catching days so he’s fresh in 45 days. He can DH a handful of times over last 41 games to get him to the plate a bit more. We face RH starters 75%+ ………Gallo is there until Kirilloff returns. Solano will be fine once or twice a week.
  3. JD-TWINS
    I’m a big Luis fan so looked at it pretty hard at the time. Luzardo was the guy I was enamored with (young/lefty) - Lopez had some shoulder stuff and he wasn’t going to be under control for long………both are pitching well……..ups & downs. Lopez has turned out to be solid once he’s settled in after the contract extension. No complaints!! Another 4 years plus to look forward to with Twins. Great to see Luis getting notoriety nationally - glad he’s playing really well!
  4. JD-TWINS
    If you believe the stat gurus here at TD, Polanco is -2 at 2B………Julien is -1 at 2B ……….Farmer is +1 at 2B. Thus, Farmer starts at 2B against LH pitching and Julien starts at 2B against RH pitching. Polanco is becoming expendable. If Kirilloff is healthy, I think Polanco is gone or should be. This assumes Castro is on roster and healthy. Gallo’s flexibility on D, while Kirilloff IS hurt, has him going nowhere. Solano had 3 hits Sunday - should be able to play first by now after being off since Sunday afternoon. He & Gallo have first covered until Kirilloff is ready to go.
  5. JD-TWINS
    Feel bad for Miranda as well but he’s not even a thought for me as the Twins go forward. Even in ‘24. Lee isn’t ready for this year and we don’t have roster space. 14 games til September roster expansion…….need Lewis up today…….Castro has had back problems so he seems a candidate to go retroactive to the 10 day IL……then available any time between 21st & 31st of August. Current 13: 2 Catchers Taylor - Kepler - Wallner - Luplow Farmer - Solano - CC - Lewis - Julien - Polanco - Gallo ………………………. Castro - Luplow - Polanco …….one of them has to go off 26 man. Castro can be optioned until September 1 but I think IL gives team more short term flexibility. Who are the 15 guys with bats in September? We have 16 guys in the mix. 13 guys above plus Castro - Kirilloff - Buxton. Gallo definitely gone by October 2 unless somehow he shows some hot streak. 14 bats in playoffs as we only need 4 starting pitchers. The 15 in September is intriguing……may just be settled by injuries?
  6. JD-TWINS
    Gallo is better 1B than Sano & he has 20 HR in 254 AB’s. His walk rate is better than Sano’s & he can play all 3 OF positions. He’s a left handed bat v. a predominantly RH pitching league (72-77%at differing times). They both strike out an alarming rate. I don’t get the fans that think we are wasting Sano’s prime years by not having him on the club - he had multiple chances & failed. It would be like clamoring for Joey Gallo in ‘25 after 46% K’s & 25 singles this year. ’24: Wallner in LF - Kepler in RF - Kirilloff at 1B Balance of ‘23 - gotta piece it together with Gallo/Solano until Kirilloff is back. Solano had 3 hits on Sunday so I doubt he’s far from being effective at 1B. Gallo had 4 hits - a walk - 2HR on Saturday. They seem to be OK between them.
  7. JD-TWINS
    85F to 88F over 6 innings. on Sunday. Looked fatigued to me when Jeffers came out to talk just before end of 6. Guys get paid to relieve. Up against a premier offense that had won 41 of 61 games. Used 4 guys because the first one didn’t do his job. Relievers (most) are much more effective/comfortable with a clean inning to start and a chance to throw out of the wind-up. If Jax has a clean inning - Thielbar clean - Duran clean ……..everyone is giddy about how sharp our Pen looked. Beat a team that was in World Series last year and held them to 1 run over 2 games in their own park. No problem with the approach nor the outcome.
  8. JD-TWINS
    Kepler & Pagan have performed well enough to be on the Club going forward…….maybe not popular but realistic. Gallo has proven he can’t be part of a positive offense more than 3-4 times per month. One thing the author conveniently omitted (from Mr. old school/non-analytics): Gallo’s OPS is .770 & his OPS+ is 109……254 AB’s - 20 HR …………………… Kyle Schwarber DH’s for Philadelphia and his line is m, LEADS LEAGUE in Strikeouts, OPS is .751 & OPS+ is 104………433 AB’s - 30 HR - 1 HR every 14.43AB’s …………………. National press applauds Kyle Schwarber & not so much with Gallo. If Gallo had another 180 AB’s (Schwarber’s total) he’d have 30 HR or more - right? 1 HR every 12.7 AB’s (34 total HR) AND he plays defense at 4 different positions. The Organization is doing a few things you elude to: Keeping roster in tact for Clubhouse morale - insurance for various defensive spots - recouping entire investment by getting Gallo to October 2 with the expanded roster through September. They’ll put him on IL before DFAing him just so they can dress him through September. Having him around is a problem remaining 14 games of August…….roster expands x 2 in September. Probably, don’t dress him in October BUT have the option in case guys go down with injury. Castro may need an IL stint? Gallo to the IL is a way to get him to September as well? After Saturday he should probably get some more AB’s this week. With Kirilloff & Buxton out this should be doable. Who moves when Lewis is back?……I think Castro’s back will deem he go to IL.
  9. JD-TWINS
    Castro or Julien down at some point. Sure seems probable/possible. They have 16 active guys now for 15 spots in September & then 14 spots in October (w/12 pitchers)……only 13 spots this month. Luplow - Taylor - Castro - Gallo - Buxton - Polanco - Julien are the guys that need to be sorted out. …………….. Lewis - CC - Julien/Polanco - Kirilloff - Farmer - Solano - Vazquez - Jeffers - Wallner - Kepler - Taylor - Buxton - Castro are my assumption for the October, 14 guys. ………………. Luplow - Gallo watch & maybe used for 2nd series?
  10. JD-TWINS
    Lee at 3B IF they can get Lewis to settle into CF. Julien at 2B. Lee at 2B IF Lewis remains at 3B…..Lee may not be up until June? I think they have to save the $ on Polanco and set him free. Too banged up & out too often. Julien will be under pressure to IMPROVE at 2B. The organization is working with him now & once the season ends I assume they’ll let him refresh a bit and then it will be “2B fielding camp” for about 3 months til Spring Training. Not a lot of time in Canada this winter.
  11. JD-TWINS
    If Kepler is back - Wallner is back - where does Kirilloff play with Polanco at 1B? May be Lee at 2B & Julien as DH as well in ‘24. Personally, I don’t see us picking up Polanco’s option unless we are trading him or Julien. Jorge is banged up too much to have in plans forward…….already have Buxton to deal with on the fragility side. Can’t trade Julien - right? I think the practical “long play” is to see if Julien can play LF…….ultimately, moving Wallner to RF in ‘25.
  12. JD-TWINS
    He puts the ball in play 35-40% of his PA’s …….less than half of those are hits. The fact that he has more HR than singles is tough to fathom. His stats don’t fall in line with a normal, productive .770OPS hitter.
  13. JD-TWINS
    If he misplays one if CC’s one hoppers from short…….Sonny Gray will lose his mind. It’s not high school, you don’t just move a guy to first and hope to hide him. It’s not played on paper. I see the 181 innings in minors……20 games. Obviously, he didn’t grade out very well! Picking up ground balls is one basic element - stretch/footwork - handling throws from pitchers with runners on base - cut-offs - feeding pitchers on balls hit to first - scooping errant throws, routinely - etc. One screw-up and the team knows we have a weak spot we shouldn’t have. Morale is sucked away. Getting him to play 1B so when Kirilloff comes back Kirilloff can DH is the silliest thing I’ve heard on the subject. Solano is on the roster - mild injury. He’ll be there soon. Kirilloff will be back there in 3 weeks, hopefully………Gallo til then. Obviously, this was probably written for TD prior to Gallo’s one walk/4 hit game Saturday night. 2 HR & 4 RBI. We’re going to struggle with Julien at 2B until he gets better over next 18 months. IMO Polanco will play 2B v. LH & 30% of the time v. RH. That’s it - Julien will sit some & DH some. Buxton will get a shot at everyday DH but if he struggles, Julien will be there v. RH pitching. Hope Julien funds a spot in line-up regularly but moving him to 1B in a stretch run to playoffs is not sound move. Once Kirilloff is back we have the same clogged issue with two LH batting 2B - one struggles on D! Kirilloff isn’t displacing Wallner nor Kepler at this point, he’s at 1B.
  14. JD-TWINS
    So, Kepler is a lock the rest of the way in RF. Wallner is a lock in LF. Julien/Farmer/Lewis/Jeffers/Vazquez/Kirilloff Correa & Buxton are other fixtures. That’s 10 guys…….who else sticks through August? Solano - Taylor - Gallo Castro has options and the other 3 don’t. Luplow has slim & none as a chance to stick. Timing on Buxton & Kirilloff is up in the air so Luplow & Castro stick until they are back. Rocco, post game talk Saturday night, all about what a great guy Gallo is in the locker room and how his teammates think he’s great. He had a walk tonight & went 4 for 4 with two HR. Not getting released……….Castro’s back is bothering him. Can IL Solano or Castro to make room for Lewis……..he’s coming Monday - right? I think they take their time with Buxton & Kirilloff getting back. Gallo may end up on IL late this month just to get to September 1 roster expansion????? Polanco was not mentioned above. He may not make the expanded roster of 15 guys that makes the team through September. Don’t know if they can afford to option Castro down and keep Polanco through August? 18 days to roster expansion. When they go from 15 to 14 bats in playoffs (4 starters - 12 total pitchers), who gets cut?? I think Luplow & Castro may be on outside? Currently, 16 bats in the mix when all are healthy. Choices to be made.
  15. JD-TWINS
    They would free up approximately $33M not pursuing Mahle & Gray & Maeda……seems there would be funds for a FA arm. 2 FA Pen arms on 2 year deals v. a starter?? Short term risk with 2 year deals. I’d like at least one successful reliever that’s not washed - along with Maeda. Gallo - Polanco - Taylor free up another $25-27M
  16. JD-TWINS
    Why is Solano not on the IL? Mild MCL knee sprain with a swollen ankle. That’s a week off!! Need bats that are available. Not his fault. Garlick could fill in - right? Assuming Solano out on Monday to IL, backdating a few days. Lewis to the 26 man. Can’t continue to play Gallo as primary option at 1B! If they want to carry Gallo through September as one of the two roster expansion slots, they may need to put him on IL to get him to September 1st. What’s the update on Kirilloff??
  17. JD-TWINS
    Maeda is a solid guy. Good attitude around clubhouse and he is a tough competitor. Can’t go wrong with him - rebuilt arm with experience!! Not too expensive either at 35-37yrs. old. Paddack - Ober - Ryan - Lopez……Maeda gives us a nice #4-5 guy!
  18. JD-TWINS
    Hope he can hold it together! Encouraging.
  19. JD-TWINS
    I’ve thought, for what it’s worth since end of June, that Gallo was going to be kept around in case of injury (i.e. Kirilloff) through roster manipulation so they could carry him in September with the roster expansion. This way they get his whole “perceived value” through the year - keep team continuity in clubhouse - never have to regret dropping him. Larnach as a replacement for Gallo sounds nice but with both Kirilloff & Solano out we’d be starting Farmer at 1B every night. Maybe not a bad thing? Anyway, I still see him around until the playoff roster comes out on Oct. 2.
  20. JD-TWINS
    Correct!……his glove is solid & he’s been hitting well for 8 weeks…..keeps improving. Hit 3 balls to the wall in one game earlier this week. Much better than popping up to short & rolling out to 2B!!! He’s made a change & ya gotta respect that. If he stays near this recent performance I think they pick-up his option for ‘24. Gallo has not changed! Thought we could ride it out through August & then have him be one of the 2 roster expansion spots in September. Good for continuity & morale? I’d DFA him & put Solano on IL & bring Garlick to play first base & Lewis back up by Monday morning. Where’s Kirilloff??
  21. JD-TWINS
    So, I’m not apologizing but I am willing to be realistic. End of the year averages are just that. Few players play to their averages all season……..last year I couldn’t stand Pagan and it bled into this season. I don’t get excited when I see him come into a game even now, but 4 HR’s over 50 innings is really good. He’s not perfect - had a hand in probably 3 losses this year. To have a 4.62 ERA on June 11 & to have it to 3.25 by Aug. 11 is good stuff! No apologies but try to be fair! Kepler, “get the bum off the team” was my chant well into June. He’d make a slick catch or hit a HR every 7-8 games and there would be a reason not to lynch him……..the guy is probably top 5 Right-fielders in the game since mid-June. His OPS is .853 & he’s hit 11HR in 48 games……assuming he plays 135 games, that’s a 31 HR pace……..he may get to 25 with his rough first 10 weeks of the season……..the past 8 weeks have been great! No apologies, just fair!
  22. JD-TWINS
    Similar thoughts: Maeda - Ober - Ryan - Lopez - Paddack………Varland…….FA that can pitch (not Mahle) for something in the range offered to Gray?……….or roll with potential from the Farm & invest in couple guys for the Pen? Stable starting 1-5 is something I think we’ll take for granted going forward…….it’s not a typical situation to get good starts day after day. See last 3 weeks!!!
  23. JD-TWINS
    Maeda - rebuilt arm & at 35, he has a couple years left. Great competitor & fits with the team. He gets guys out!! I’d guess 2 years at $11-$13M each……maybe a heavy bonus for innings pitched each year as a two way incentive? Gray - qualifying offer. Not SURE anybody goes over $20M? He’s 34 or will be & he’s had injury stints almost every year until ‘23……might be surprised?….…draft pick makes sense as the alternative. Mahle - would need to be $5M in ‘24 & then some incentive heavy deal, with maybe a $12-$14M base through ‘26. Big risk - probably not worthwhile with the potential for lingering shoulder issue. I live in Cinti and struggled watching him pitch here - same with Twins. Too much nibbling - chasing strikeouts - leads to walks - high pitch counts early - & then the HR/Big inning comes. He gives up HR everywhere, 3 in first outing in Minneapolis. Don’t believe the, “it only happens in Great American Ballpark”……he can be brutal anywhere. His approach frustrates me so I’m probably a little tougher on him than others might be……..been watching him 4 years.
  24. JD-TWINS
    Maybe in ‘24? I like the “replacement for Michael A. Taylor” next year. I just can’t imagine them removing Castro from this roster between now & end of September. He’d have to take Luplow’s spot on roster…….let’s see how those two perform over next 3 weeks - he has a shot.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Stick with 13 arms in September, use options on guys up & down to keep pen fresh & go to 12 guys in playoffs (4 starters needed). Will need the extra bat options in September.
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