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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    Option 1) Maeda 2 years for $21M…….Better would be 1 year for $12M with a team option 2nd year at $12M or $2M buyout. He’s 36 with a re-built (good as new) elbow. He’s a for sure 130 innings guy, however you want to use him. A must) QO for Gray and we get a good pick. Option 2) Offer Jordan Montgomery 4 years with a 5th year option of his choice. $24M/year ……….that’s a couple Million more per year than Gray but he’s age 30 - 6’5” & 230lbs - great recent post-season success - 3.30ERA over essentially 7 years in MLB
  2. JD-TWINS
    Walker is 21 in 2026, right?……….seems like a lifetime with this existing pitching staff. Need some near-term solution. I get Kiermaier upside - great D - super attitude - hits RH pitching well……….injury risk though…….we don’t need to try & solve this problem of durability in CF with a fragile guy. Seems Martin is as good of a risk for positive outcome regarding performance, plus availability.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Texas has Heaney - deGrom - Scherzer - Eovaldi - all under contract, plus a couple more guys……….I think Montgomery leaves & will be in high demand. We may not be to attract him?
  4. JD-TWINS
    1 option) Maeda is an inexpensive depth piece for rotation. Maybe trade for another similar guy and live with that solution? 2nd option) Gray at $70M, at 34 years old seems to be more of a sentimental move. I honestly don’t think he’ll hold up physically over 3 years & that’s a lot of $$ to have even 1 bad or unproductive year. That’s $23.3M/year for Gray. Best option) It seems that we should at least offer $24M/year for 4 years to Jordan Montgomery with a 5th year player option. He’s 30. He’s had a 3.30ERA over essentially 7 MLB seasons. 6’5” 235 pound horse - left handed fits with our other 4 RH starters. Great recent post-season success! If we can afford him at $24-$27M he’s our best buy!!!
  5. JD-TWINS
    The issue with Varland is that it seems they told him he would have an opportunity going forward as a starter when they moved him to the Pen in September. Seems that’s how his headline ran for justification of the move. IMO, he could be a 4.25 ERA guy with a .500 record as a starter. Seems durable & could eat innings. He could be dominant in the Pen! If he & the Twins can get his mind right coming out of the Pen is best for the club. Varland - Stewart - Jax - Duran………they’d be on the cover of Sporting News by June 1 if they still printed the baseball bible!!
  6. JD-TWINS
    Me either! How about Winder, Balazovic, & Funderburk? To me, unless they trade Winder, he’s our obvious long guy in the Pen. Funderburk seems like a can’t miss rostered guy. Alcala - Balazovic - Moran can battle for last spot.
  7. JD-TWINS
    Giolito is like signing Chris Archer…..he was terrible in ‘23! Varland gives us a much better chance to win games. Most common sense $$ move is to sign Maeda for 2 years in $30M range as a depth piece. After ‘25 we have a little more $$ to spend and we’ll have more data on the other 4 guys now in rotation, plus Varland. If this isn’t a sufficient solution in ‘24 we can be aggressive at the deadline. BEST option is QO to Gray and we get a pick when he leaves for more $$ & then offer Jordan Montgomery $96M for 4 years with mutual 5th year option. Can control the $$ to fit budget by paying $20M for first 2 years & then $28M for last 2 years of contract. Montgomery has a 3.30ERA over essentially a 7 year career and he’s a big, durable, lefty……..performed well in post-season. Perfect fit. Could move Varland to Pen with Stewart - Jax - Duran and have the best Staff in the game top to bottom!
  8. JD-TWINS
    Not enough $$! Somebody would pay him $52M plus for 2 years……….almost certainly, he gets offered $70M for 3 years.
  9. JD-TWINS
    Ultimately, he plays right at 6’5” & as a former pitcher. Needs to quit trying “to impress” with his arm & make solid plays - hitting the cut-off when applicable!!! He’s got a big swing but 27-28% K’s is plenty - can’t be 35% plus. Needs to improve K% of through ‘24 season. If he can hit .255 plus out of the 7th spot in the line-up & drive in 65-70 runs with 25 plus HR, he’s at the floor for our every day guy in right. He’s got potential to have 30 or more doubles & 35 HR…..potential budding star!
  10. JD-TWINS
    Don’t forget that if Stewart can hold his health together we have a quartet of pretty good options!
  11. JD-TWINS
    Nick Gordon - if he shows any signs of hitting capability in Spring Training & Willie Castro are both capable of playing CF as much as needed. Castro was learning the position in ‘23 & has good speed with a big arm. Gordon started over 60 times in CF in ‘22. Don’t see covering this internally…….with some upside potential either from Buxton or Martin we should be good w/o a major signing. Taylor is still a rational signing for RH platoon and injury depth.
  12. JD-TWINS
    CASTRO - done.
  13. JD-TWINS
    Agreed. His 32 game stint with 27 K’s & 18 walks is really good……much better!
  14. JD-TWINS
    Not particular about who the sponsor may be - need a sponsor to carry the $$ needed. It seems there is some TV solution (other sponsorship) that will get us close to last year’s spending capabilities. Player decisions could have the organization anywhere between $105M - $155M. Kepler ….? Polanco….? Mahle - Gallo - Gray - Maeda - Solano - Taylor This is ‘23’s total of approximately $156M less the savings from above ($66M at a minimum)……..that’s a bare bones base of $90M. I think they pay out to most of the arbitration guys including Farmer - Castro - etc. - this costs additional $8M or something in the range…………now at $98M. Add Solano at $4.5M - Kepler back at $12M - (Act on Polanco’s option but trade) - Sign Taylor for another year at $6.5M…………That’s a pretty full roster, along with a rookie or two & total $$ of around $123M. Please go after Jordan Montgomery for $18M in year’s 1&2 …….. for $29M in year 3&4………total of $94M. J. Gray - Heany - deGrom - Scherzer - Eovaldi is the rotation in Texas ……….all SIGNED guys! Jordan Montgomery will be available……great, durable option for Twins.
  15. JD-TWINS
    Glad for Dick, sorry for the listeners. I was in my 20’s & not watching too many Twins broadcasts in the 80’s when he started - moved to Cincinnati in early ‘91 & missed essentially his whole tenure - got the MLB package in ‘22. Watched maybe 200 games over the last 2 seasons with Bremer at the helm in nearly every one. He spoke for the fans, with curiosity, to his former player color mates - expressed frustration with whomever he thought deserved it - he defended the organization as a long-time employee should - he admired the talent & effort of current players as well as those of the past. GREAT Twins supporter! I will miss his voice & approach to the broadcast ……..hope he enjoy’s his retirement!
  16. JD-TWINS
    IF budget is a driving force for San Diego & is a concern of their’s, which I do not believe, then staying relevant with Kepler & moving Soto makes sense for them! We could add Woods-Richardson for upside to San Diego. I saw we could make a QO to him and get compensation in draft……maybe? …..Seems to me San Diego knew their budget for next year for some time & Soto is a key piece to their potential success. They finished strong in ‘23!! Did anybody read about the clubhouse problems in San Diego ALL YEAR & their manager bailing to go to the Giants last week! Wouldn’t touch Soto with a 10 ft pole!…….no sense for a one year deal. Performance risk with both & zero clubhouse risk and $22M less, locks in Max Kepler v. Juan Soto in RF for Twins. ………………… Unless we offer to pay $10M/yr for the rest of his contract, nobody is trading for Byron Buxton. We tied the Rangers for first in AL for HR’s……we lead ALL of baseball in strikeouts. Pete Alonso - 46 HR is the attraction……151 strikeouts……..we don’t need more HR to take on more K’s……….he hit .217 in ‘23. No thank you! …………………… Santander, maybe? Seems we would want to promote from within for OF. Martin seems a couple months away in AAA. We have a switch hitting left fielder with speed, if we choose that, with Castro. Gordon, if he comes back physically, can put up similar numbers to Santander with maybe 10 less HR………..$11M less cost. Don’t see a pursuit for this guy.
  17. JD-TWINS
    Lewis is absolutely off the table - no reasonable return can be imagined.
  18. JD-TWINS
    I think Polo gets picked up & then moved with a couple controllable guys. Also, I think Solano gets first shot at Miranda’s spot! Lee in early July is realistic.
  19. JD-TWINS
    To me, the obvious LH pitcher to pursue is Free Agent, Jordan Montgomery!!!!! He’s 31. In his 9 year career, he has a 3.68 ERA. This year around 3.11 in regular season. We have Gray - Mahle - Gallo - Polanco (IMO) - Maeda all going away…….that’s about $48M - $50M freed up $$ against the ‘22 budget. Texas has Heaney - Eovaldi - Scherzer - deGrom totaling about $130M - $135M tied up in starting pitching for ‘24. $94M for 4 years is $23.5M/year. I know there’s some budget concerns with what’s coming for TWINS in ‘25………offer $18M for first two years & then $29M for last two years? He’s a lefty, which is secondary. He’s getting great post-season experience this year! He’s performing well in tough situations in these playoffs. Very good value, durable, & with proven success.
  20. JD-TWINS
    103 games & .235BA in ‘22 …….. 80 games & .255BA in ‘23 for Polanco. Career .270 hitter - productivity fall-off and nagging injuries have become the norm. Has been a good player & still has talent - IMO, time to move on while there’s still some real value!
  21. JD-TWINS
    I think Eddie plays 2B through June & then Lee comes up for 2nd half after 200 AB’s in AAA. Also, they have to target his defense for at least a month, where they want him to play, 2B or 3B. I think they’ll pick up Polanco and trade him with a couple other guys that have some control. We have too many other options in the infield & his lingering lack of availability isn’t worth the risk of counting on him on the roster.
  22. JD-TWINS
    $12-$15M seems to be a fair range & fairly competitive. 2 years……..more than that doesn’t make sense since he’ll be 36 (with rebuilt/fresh arm) and brings some risk!
  23. JD-TWINS
    Seems to me that either Polanco or Julien need to be traded. Polanco’s downside is durability - Julien’s is experience/track record. Since Polanco has a contract for ‘24 & ‘25 it seems he’s a known quantity for another team in the post-season hunt…….another 15 teams. Anyway, even with Lee coming, I think we have to keep Julien for the pure $ value as well as probable offensive output. Polanco - Larnach - Woods-Richardson for an established arm with a couple years of control? …………………….. BIG move might be to clear $$ by trading both Polanco & Kepler and clearing a path for an offer to Montgomery at 4 years & $95M………..Varland to the Pen………Top staff in baseball! Wallner to right - Lewis or Castro to left (other at 3B) - Taylor/Buxton/Gordon in CF Bet on Lee - Kirilloff - Julien - Lewis - Wallner - Jeffers to be what has become expected, not to mention CC. Buxton is gravy going forward if available. Other pitching option is $28M to Gray in ‘24 & $18M for ‘25 & team option for ‘26 at $18M to meet his goal of 3 years & north of $60M with a $5M buyout for ‘26. ……..maybe reasonable?
  24. JD-TWINS
    I’m pretty confident that at the end of August the Twins told Varland he would be back in ‘24 as a starter. Stewart - Jax - Varland - Duran ……… .Funderburk - Thielbar is a pretty good start for a ‘24 Pen - right? Could consider a potential signing of Pagan if both sides are looking for continuity? Getting Varland to believe he’ll be paid seems to be a big motivator…….maybe an early sign candidate mid-year? In the end, his desire to start - the Twins probable promise to leave him as a starter - his value as a starter, all probably outweigh his potential (the potential) of him making our Pen elite.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Joe is very solid! I don’t know that a guy that throws around 92-93 with a couple other pitches he’s mastering is in the “talent” realm of a star pitcher? He can be a star, potentially, but I think his personality/mindset are his biggest attributes. His pitches will develop, that’s expected. Whether he is classified as a #2 or a #4 doesn’t really matter when either guy takes the mound every 5th day in a rotation. I don’t think Ryan could care less. In fact, if he pitches in the 4 slot, his competition on the mound will be less likely to contain the offense. This allows Ryan to maintain an ERA near 4.00 & still reach 15 wins. A 15-10 season with an ERA at 4.00 and 190 plus innings would be a fantastic year. He can win games if he can maintain health!
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