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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. Have been a big Jordan Montgomery cheerleader in this Forum for last 3-4 weeks! Also, see value in an upside guy that’s much less cost, like Severino of Yankees (great stuff) & maybe Maeda as well for solid depth. Also, trading Miranda - Larnach - Moran to open 40 man spots & to get Corbin Burnes for a year is intriguing. My latest thought is (no bats, per your headline, “pitching”) and send the same 3 guys to Milwaukee for Devin Willams. This allows Varland to go back to the rotation while having an elite set-up guy!!! Still sign Maeda for depth.
  2. Soto in ‘23: .275 BA …. 568 At Bats ….. 35 HR …..OBP%.410 Kepler in ‘23: .260 BA ……..438 At Bats ….24 HR ….OBP%.332 Soto has a better ability to walk! Reflected in OBP. Definite value there. Kepler, significantly a better OF. Value there as well. Both have 1 year left & Kepler makes $5M less. Don’t see a great value in the move for a one year deal.
  3. Soto, to me, seems to be all about Soto. He turned down a $400 million plus offer at 22. The fact that the Padres struggled (with 4 starters with sub 3.50 ERA) all year & the Manager left, of his own choosing, something wrong! Seems Soto had to be part of the “ego” issues the every day players seemed to struggle with in San Diego. Last, why bring in a bat for 1 year? No chance he stays with the Twins - again, to me, that’s a disruption. The no trade for Alonso maybe isn’t obvious to all - just saw a headline today that Keith Hernandez is calling for management to re-sign Alonso. Doesn’t seem absolutely eminent?……….148 K’s per year in his 4 full seasons outside ‘20, shortened year….I know he’s got power but more K’s per position in this line-up doesn’t excite me.
  4. Alonso adding 150 plus K’s to our line-up …….the line-up that already lead the AL in homers……..with a .217 BA, doesn’t seem to be a great move. He seems like a decent guy…..so why are the Mets so non-commital? Pretty sure they can afford him! Soto is a talent but seems like a disruption, particularly in the Twin Cities market.
  5. Perralta would be great but I think unattainable. Woodruff’s health is too big of a gamble. Adames isn’t any better than Miranda. No reason to trade for .217BA & 23 HR’s OF - that’s a lesser defending Michael A. Taylor. Miranda, Larnach, & Moran for Corbin Burnes. 3 guys with some years of control for Brewers. Instead of signing Maeda at $11.5M for a year we get Burnes for a million or three more. With our 4 core guys…..add Burnes. Clears Varland for Pen. Awfully good staff! We need 40 man roster space - we clear 3 spots with guys that have potential being moved for an inexpensive 1 year rental of Burnes. If things go South - can move Burnes at the deadline but I like our chances at making a run at the Series with him on the Staff. ……………… BEST move is Jordan Montgomery for 4 years & 5th year player option. $20M first 2 years - $26M years 3 & 4……….his option for year 5 at $26M.
  6. These guys do nothing for me on paper. Pagan re-signed is a better move than Stratton. Focus on a starter or two. Maeda is attractive for $11M. Don't think he wants to hear it but Twins getting another starter and Varland in the Pen makes the team strongest! I’d still like to go big with J. Montgomery as our first, and maybe only FA move.
  7. Since Martin is a question mark - Buxton is a question mark - why wouldn’t we sign Taylor? Great defense, not just OK, & he hit 21 HR…….maybe $6M/yr?
  8. Don’t understand the logic behind signing a guy with diminishing defensive skills & him being inserted at DH when we have a guy under contract with the same issues & the need for him to DH. If healed by April - Buxton can’t play CF at more than a 40% rate……DH another 35-40%. IF HE DOESN’T heal he’s a DH 70% of the time. I believe the Twins should commit to Kirilloff being their 1B answer. I get his health may be in question but I don’t think it’s worth signing Justin Turner for 2 years as a back-up plan. Turner at DH is great if Buxton is “healthy” & playing OF. What happens when Lee is ready mid-summer and Julien is ready to DH v. every RH pitcher we see? Let’s let our youth come forward mid-season and until then we can utilize what’s under contract. Why not sign Donnie B for $4M to fill same roll as last year? His BA is solid …..his D at 1B is OK. He’s clutch & affordable. Turner brings more Pop, yes - we already lead the league in HR.
  9. Love watching Brantley hit over his career……he’s too fragile & too much risk for being paid like a normal version of himself. He played 64 games in ‘22 & 15 games in ‘23……great hitter - no availability! Cannot risk this sign.
  10. I agree - availability & flexibility makes Farmer the right pick between him and Polanco on our roster. As a guy with some Pop - switch hitter - Polanco makes better trade material. Win-win! With Polanco gone we’re around $114M……room for an arm…… or least costly option of 2 arms.
  11. The more I think about it the more I like Luis Severino coming over and getting paired up with our guys on their way to DriveLine for some fresh guidance. Then Maki has Lopez work with him on physical discipline and mental clarity. Severino has great stuff - don’t know if anyone has connected with him on the coaching side? Can he stay healthy? He’ll be pitching for a new long-term contract so he’ll be motivated in ‘24!!!
  12. How about 2 of 3 guys at $11 - $12M each to spread risk of failure with some real upside?? Maeada - Lugo - Severino Severino, is higher risk but he’s got #1 stuff if he’s right/healthy. He’ll be motivated!! Maeda seems lowest risk - known guy & solid teammate, already in place. BEST OPTION is Jordan Montgomery for 4 years with 5th year player option……. he gets security and some flexibility at end of deal……..escalating salary from $22M - $22M - $25M - $25M. (5th year option at $25M) Either path on pitching can be done, if Twins trade Polanco, and we’re not over $140M total budget. Have to mention since I’ve seen the suggestion before……Unless TWINS pay somebody, Vazquez is our catcher for two years….I guess a front line catcher could get hurt & force a trade for some front running team ………but I still think a trade for Vazquez is a huge stretch.
  13. MONTGOMERY! Durable 30 years old with recent success in post-season. Consistent career numbers. He gets guys out and doesn’t need elite stuff to get it done. 4 years at $24M/yr with a 5th year player option that gives him security & some flexibility to make more $$ if he chooses.
  14. LEE is coming by August 1!!!
  15. I like this a lot!!!! Montgomery is a HUGE add - even if we need to stretch to $26M (30 v. Gray at 34) Bader doesn’t interest me…….I’d shuffle the I.D.’s to ‘23 reality until Buxton shows up for real, with knees that flex. Castro - CF Buxton - DH Taylor - 4th OF Gotta say I see somebody other than Larnach as last OF.…..Gordon? Youth guy?? Maybe Larnach? Have been preaching for this Staff!!! ……maybe Balazovic instead of Moran?? Splitting hairs. Lots of wins if this team is somewhat healthy!!
  16. I think it’s because he’s a proven commodity in the Play-offs, which he showed in October. Also, when healthy, he’s a top 6-7 SS in the game. An upside list, to me, speaks to guys that haven’t done a bunch yet. Not the case with CC. Can’t live in a world of hindsight. Not expecting this, but what if Lewis is hurt again in May - how’s the list work out then?
  17. IMO they keep Farmer for defensive flexibility at a certain competence level, along with durability. He plays 2B v. every LH pitcher we face and he rests CC 25 games and Lewis 30 games. that’s 90 starts or so……….pinch hitter or late defensive replacement another 30 games. They trade Polanco and Julien starts all games at 2B v. RH pitching.
  18. I’m all about bird in the hand - not a big rah rah, let’s bring up guys from AAA to see what they can do sort. I have zero allegiance to Martin. I know he’s quick - decent baserunner - OK bat, but problems hitting in summer of ‘22. Also, arm problems well into ‘23. …….. I just don’t like another left handed bat with fair amount of cost that isn’t durable enough to get me very excited to sign.
  19. I would think that if they were going to spend any $$ on FA pitching (outside a BIG move) that Maeda would be first choice. Both sides are comfortable with each other - his elbow is basically brand new - 2 years with 2nd being his option at $12M/year. Gives him security, and unless he collapses, it gives us reasonable depth for 2 years.
  20. Castro OR Martin succeeding v. Keirmaier staying healthy & succeeding…………I like the cost and probability blended risk of the former. If we’re signing a FA for CF with a good glove and decent health history to reduce risk of the young guys, Taylor has to get serious consideration.
  21. I’m trying to weigh the risk of spending on a FA ……with probable health risks …….v. a guy already in the system and the risk he can’t hit well enough. Can always play somebody else & move him back down if not successful but signing a guy for $8M we could spend on an arm I don’t like. Certainly don’t think Martin is Kiermaier’s level defensively but I do think he’s adequate.
  22. Option 1) Maeda 2 years for $21M…….Better would be 1 year for $12M with a team option 2nd year at $12M or $2M buyout. He’s 36 with a re-built (good as new) elbow. He’s a for sure 130 innings guy, however you want to use him. A must) QO for Gray and we get a good pick. Option 2) Offer Jordan Montgomery 4 years with a 5th year option of his choice. $24M/year ……….that’s a couple Million more per year than Gray but he’s age 30 - 6’5” & 230lbs - great recent post-season success - 3.30ERA over essentially 7 years in MLB
  23. Walker is 21 in 2026, right?……….seems like a lifetime with this existing pitching staff. Need some near-term solution. I get Kiermaier upside - great D - super attitude - hits RH pitching well……….injury risk though…….we don’t need to try & solve this problem of durability in CF with a fragile guy. Seems Martin is as good of a risk for positive outcome regarding performance, plus availability.
  24. Texas has Heaney - deGrom - Scherzer - Eovaldi - all under contract, plus a couple more guys……….I think Montgomery leaves & will be in high demand. We may not be to attract him?
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