JD-TWINS

Currently in the high teens for Payroll? ($118M?) Move Polanco. $135M budget ceiling. There’s room for an arm!! Could add Clevinger & keep Polanco or trade later. Just because they sign a FA doesn’t mean they stop trying to trade for a controllable arm………can always trade later if there’s an unexpected glut!

Can’t have League low ERA in ‘23 for the rotation with 2 good pitchers! Ober & Ryan, to me, are middle of the pack #2’s - higher end #3’s. This is great, with Paddack being a solid #3. All 3 of these guys are in question because Minnesotan’s don’t like to beat their chest & more so, because of their potential for limited availability. When healthy, they stack up very well behind Pablo!! BTW, he’s #8. Also, was #8 on MLB’s Top 10 starters for 2024!! In ‘23 he was 23rd in baseball in ERA - threw 194 innings - 3rd in the game in K’s - #1 in xWOBA. That’s an ACE!

Indy & Louisville are, closer in one case & same as Columbus, in another. Plenty of fan base. From a Cinti. resident.

Some Broad Strokes that aren’t real accurate but understand your premise …….. 300,000/day is 109,000,000/year - that would be a really big problem. That aside. Don’t feel too bad for the Reds! I live in Cincinnati & have been here since ‘91 (from MN) ……….similar to St. Paul in the City but over 1.6million with surrounding suburbs. Dayton - Columbus - Indianapolis - Louisville - Lexington are all 100 miles or less from the Stadium……,that’s gotta total at least another 4.5 - 5 million potential bodies……they are the oldest franchise in the game and are extremely cheap & it shows in their attendance. Also, a very proud fan base that attend games in a very fickle nature. They were in playoff mix in September & had under 20,000 on a beautiful night……happens often. Reds paid Ken Griffey Jr!! Reds paid Joey Votto!! ………..it’s a choice. They can do it. Twins are paying CC $34M/year - can’t omit that just because it’s old news. I completely agree that keeping the payroll at $140M (10% reduction) is the bottom of where the team should be. If they move Polanco, they could sign Montgomery by next Friday at $26M/year. Fingers crossed!

No change. Effectiveness in a role is King! All relievers were starters at some point. Nobody is suggesting Hader, or even Jax, move back to the rotation. Guys have been swung back and forth between long relief & starter forever. Guys doing it now are Martinez from San Diego (now Reds) - Lorenzen from Philadelphia, etc etc. Twins aren’t desperate for innings from starters. Having a great closer and relying on that for 45-55 games is a big deal!! It’s like suggesting Royce Lewis should be shoved back into CF…….he’s played there before ……….there’s a need……..,Bad Idea!

Assuming he has an agent & there would be caveats - getting him for cheap isn’t going to happen in any case. Risk of injury & then zero upside is the concern, as you point out.

Gray & Maeda were 14-16 combined in ‘23 regular season. Gray had a decent start against Toronto in playoffs (picked a guy off at 2B to get through 5th & final inning) & was not good v. Houston! Maeda did not pitch well in playoffs. The team was 15-19 in Gray’s starts in ‘23. Obviously, I don’t hate Gray - he deserved better! However, the outcomes of those two guys were not that impressive at all. The, “we’re screwed without them”, comments that flow continually here are overstated. Would it have been less controversial to sign both? Probably. Is it poor judgement to think that Varland/Paddack can’t go .500 in 50 starts? IMO, I don’t think so.

Your opinion about ownership & spending may be very accurate…….Jax “blew a bunch of games” & 6 guys are going to regress & a career journeyman that’s a great defender is still unsigned, was & would be a key going forward?? Did the Blue Jays lose the money they were going to pay Ohtani - haven’t seen any bold moves from them? Resigned Kiermaier. Twins have a decent Club & with more games under their belt this year I think the younger guys thrive and add 50-75% to each WAR total. High paid Vets can’t be as bad in ‘24. They were 14-5 in ‘23 against Phillies - Diamondbacks - Astros - Rangers……the last 4 teams standing in ‘23. Can rationalize how or why they were “lucky” to have done this but if that’s the case one needs to scrutinize the 162 games every other team played to justify their wins. The rotation lost Maeda - Gray & combined, they were 14-16……..real outcomes are what matters not just stats. They were 15-19 in Gray’s starts. He had an OK playoff start v. Toronto & had to pick a guy off to get out of a major jam - threw 5 innings. Stunk it up v. Astros in the following series. Am not hating on Gray - lack of run support in regular season was a problem - but his ERA didn’t get the team the results that would be expected in his starts. Is it ridiculous to think Varland & Paddack go a combined 17-15 in ‘24 or similar? I think management/ownership should get the Payroll total to $140M…….once TV is sorted, $160M in ‘25…………..at $140M, that’s a 10% reduction - that’s plenty when needing to be frugal. With this number & a Polanco trade, they’d have $30M plus to spend in ‘24…………Montgomery for $26M would be fantastic (all sorts of options)…….they can spend back to $160M in ‘25 & they’ll be free of Farmer & Kepler’s salary by then ($17M). I think things aren’t so bad - I agree, they need to act because “everything will work out approach” is burying their heads! Beers are expensive in Pittsburgh - Cincinnati - D.C. - Detroit as well, Pohlad’s don’t have that cornered!

Agreed…….Lewis is a 5.0 WAR guy if he plays 135 games………Buxton & CC totaled 1.8 WAR in ‘23 & with “decent” season from CC & a 115 games of offensive availability from Buxton their total gets to 5.5 WAR with ease….they just need to be healthy & it happens.

The whole “he can’t pitch this year” thought should be enough for any rational person to not want to trade for him, unless they are giving him away. Doubt this would be the case! Uncertainty going forward with any guy coming off surgery…….one missed year, one “tender” year is not how we want to improve the Club.

Posted earlier about the plus/minus in the Central Division and it disappeared. This is generalized thought about a common theme from others about the “improved” Division. Tigers…….young talented guys that are getting better, granted. Lost Rodriguez who went 13-9 with 3.30 ERA. HUGE LOSS………gained Kenta Maeda & Jack Flarhty who totaled a 14-17 record with a combined 4.60 ERA in ‘23……….if both Maeda & Flarhty go 10-5 each, the Team only gains 6 wins total over Rodriguez 2023 .………….. K.C. added Lugo & Wacha, both major upgrades! They traded Chapman before the deadline & have now added a good reliever. They will be better (Merrifield still unsigned?) but I don’t think 20 plus games better. Reasonable? …………… Whote Sox don’t seem to be in the mix……….Cleveland’s Managerial change will not help them - they are without Josh Bell all year……..pitching will be more healthy but run scoring capability has not leaped forward so they remain challenged. …………….. Twins lost Gray & Maeda…..14-16 record collectively. Not Gray’s issue, often! However, those are the “outcomes” that need to be replaced. With an expected uptick (not a leap forward) from CC - Buxton & even Vazquez things are a bit better in ‘24. Lewis - Julien - Wallner for a full season can’t be a step backward! Honestly, I’d take Paddack & Varland going forward v. Maeda & Flarhty in a rotation. Martin - Miranda - Farmer - Larnach - Gordon……going to need a couple of these guys to step up…….am assuming Polanco is moved?? I don’t think, w/o some rotation upgrade or offensive upgrade such as a depth piece at 1B & 3B, Twins win 95 games. I do think this team can cruise to 88 wins w/o much good fortune. All subjective!! Last year’s team was 14-5 v. Astros-Diamondbacks-Rangers-Phillies, the last 4 standing.

Sanchez had a pretty bright 6-10 weeks in San Diego in ‘23……,Twins know him………doubt there’s enough savings in salary to pick him up if Vazquez was moved. Casali can catch (I live in Cinti.) but similar to Vazquez Offense from ‘23……,cheaper & reasonable defensive replacement. …………. I’d target my favorite offseason topic, Devin Williams. Former Hader set-up guy. Closer for last 1.3 years. Could swing either way for Twins. Only $7.25M this year after arbitration settlement. ….,quite different than a potentially washed Kenny Jansen at $17M. Williams has 2 years of control left. Our bullpen becomes elite with his addition! Trade nearly anyone needed to get this done….,,…….no Lee - Lewis - Jenkins……no everyday starters. Other prospects - Vazquez (with cash incentives to trade partner, Milwaukee) - Polanco - Miranda - Larnach - Gordon - Festa - E. Rodriguez - other prospects?

IMO Jeffers ranking or value have zero to do with framing or automated strike zone. Not applicable in a player’s worth. I think that as his Games started increase and his AB’s increase, his offense likely declines a bit post August 1st due to the grind. Seems he has earned 60% plus of the starts until mid-August and then taper him back closer to 50% to keep him fresh for October. Seems to be common sense. Playing Vazquez 8 more games than writers here think he deserves, “…..at .200 OPS difference” is a minor issue for the Team. Nobody in the organization care or should care where Jeffers gets ranked by MLB Network. 95-100 starts would be plenty with a defensive veteran like Vazquez to fall back on as alternative. Another writer’s comment said it, “……C offense from a good catcher is a bonus”. Decent defense from the 2 guys we play and a blended “average offensive year” would be a nice outcome.

As a couple guys mentioned, top prospects get traded all the time. Spencer Steer has a better chance of being an MVP than Rodriguez since he already has had success in the Show & shows no reason why he wouldn’t continue to be better. Red’s MVP of ‘23. He was a traded prospect - nobody jumping off a bridge in Minneapolis over this. Rodriguez - Polanco & another guy or two, other than Lee - Jenkins, is worth a solid starter for the next 2-4 years! No other 26 man guys but realistic add-ons to the Polanco - Rodriguez pairing would be worthwhile. If Rodriguez plays CF & isn’t ready until ‘25……..most think Jenkins plays CF & should be ready in ‘26……..make a deal for a pitcher now. Lee at 3B everyday & Lewis in LF everyday & Jenkins in CF everyday & Wallner in RF everyday …….CC & Julien & Jeffers through the middle, sounds OK for future….,,,not torn up with regret. Pitcher now & piece together CF for a couple seasons.

Buxton for Arraez …..on what plane of consciousness does that happen? Trading Buxton for anyone doesn’t happen, unfortunately. I do think that the “Buxton can’t hit unless he plays CF” is way overstated by many here. He couldn’t hit because he was hurt & couldn’t even play CF at 29 years old. Nobody hits well if their legs aren’t working. IMO, he plays CF once a week - twice a week maybe a couple times per month. DH’s 80 games and that’s what the new reality will be. Am hopeful he can pull off the above, if he can actually start 110-120 games it would be his second time over 100 games in what will be his 10th year. Arraez, somehow back to Twins to hit behind Julien would be special!

An even $$ deal …….Marlins add control with 1 of the two but no real upside for them. Josh Bell is playing first base I believe? I guess Polanco at 2B & Kirilloff at corner OF? Could add a third guy from Minors or maybe add Headrick - Winder to give another arm option in Marlins Pen? Would a Polanco - Winder - E. Rodriguez get the deal done? Scares many here but dropping Arraez back into Twin’s line-up is intriguing. Great for Twins as they would have an everyday guy to hit behind Julien. Julien sees even better pitches than now and half the time he gets on at his .380 clip (which may increase in front of Arráez) Arraez advances him to 3B with a base hit or 2B with a walk. Would be a pressure cooker for opposing pitchers with Lewis not far behind these two. This move may flip the switch to the “offensive minded Twins” that don’t need another high end arm? Something to consider.

I get what you’re saying about Polanco “when healthy” but the group has to start seeing the writing on the wall…….he’s breaking down. 108 games in ‘22 & 80 games in ‘23. He’s just a tick more available (less games in ‘23) than Buxton. I just can’t get behind support keeping him on the roster parallel to Buxton, who they can’t move. Nobody’s trading Lopez anywhere for anyone! With Kirilloff available and at a little over a million $, it seems instead of trading assets to bring Arráez back to play an average to below average 2B & a bunch at 1B……..again, with Buxton on the roster the DH spot is already pretty crowded, spend the $11M Arraez is owed on Justin Turner. He can be RH platoon at 1B - DH 30 games or more - spell Lewis at 3B once per week. It may take the $11M plus a couple more but Infield Corner is the depth need. If they believe in Martin/Lee they could move Farmer to help pay for the Turner $$. Arraez at 2B doesn’t seem to be as valuable (maybe not more valuable) as the upside of Julien there. Power/OBP/defense/$$$ combined in the comparison.

Shedding Polanco’s salary to get a decent prospect may happen at some point to free up the $$ to pay a pitcher they acquire in trade or sign as a FA. - maybe? Manoah, for Polanco & Gordon’s flexibility and inexpensive upside, could fill that “prospect” roll. Maybe it’s Polanco & Miranda as a potential depth 3B alternative for the Jays? Polanco and a Minor league guy? Seems he (Manoah) needs to get in better shape - maybe López can be a mentor in this pursuit?

Could sign Clevinger & if they were fortunate enough to pull off a TRADE for another arm, they could have high leverage at the deadline to add a key bat by trading a starter……,lots has to fall right but signing a FA arm shouldn’t stop the pursuit of a trade for starter in the near term. I still covet the potential Polanco trade, maybe with a guy, for a prospect or a reasonable reliever - Vazquez trade (Twins cover $3.5M of salary) this offseason - moving on from Kepler by ‘25. This saves $17M in ‘24 & $27M in ‘25 from the existing Payroll number. Sign J. Montgomery for $26M per year for 5 years with player option in years 4 & 5. Security & independence for the player……..Twins retain all their trade assets/prospects.

Great analysis on Gilbert & extension value - too, “in the weeds” for me to consider his fit v. others though. I could see trading nearly any of the guys available for a top half of rotation starter - so anyone but the following: None of the existing top 4 starters…….Duran ……Buxton - CC - Lewis - Lee - Jenkins. So, outside of these 10 guys, all others are available to be traded to upgrade staff. I think, for the $$ spent and reduction of trade capital, we should push hard to get Devin Williams from the Brewers to make our Pen elite. He can help us with a positive impact in 45-55 games this year & next year. There are enough veteran & prospect guys left on list to pull this trade off. Twins goes with the existing Staff & use Festa & SWR & if needed, Headrick to help get to the deadline. If they still need help they can get a guy in trade from one of the 8-10 teams that will have given up by then. LEAST EXPENSIVE, best depth move is solidifying the Pen with a difference maker. I’d prefer to keep young trade assets and move Polanco for prospect & $$ to be able to sign Clevinger for $14-$15M on a short deal. This seems a way to reduce risk of losing a star in trade (for a few months) and get a reasonable depth arm for a year or two. Could sign Clevinger and continue to pursue a starter in trade. If both work out, possibly Varland to the Pen sooner than later?

I’m thinking less Sleeping Giant & more Pleasant Surprise……anything positive would be fantastic for him & the Club.

There are 13 position players out of the 26 man roster. 5 starters - 8 guys in the Pen. I agree with a status quo line-up from ‘23 to start the year……..with Castro in CF & with Buxton at DH. Vazquez - Farmer - Miranda - Gordon or Martin makes up the bench…….Gordon (probably “no option” Gordon) or Martin play the role of 3rd CF, also available for 2B if there are some late inning moves. Don't think Polanco will still be on the roster in March.

Agreed, that’s where Twins are at & a pitcher should be top priority. BIG if with Miranda IMO. He & Gordon are both a roll of the dice starting in about 5 weeks. Just had a thought worth throwing out for consideration. They give Miranda a shot and he doesn’t cut it early……….can we carry a third catcher and play Vazquez/Jeffers as our RH platoon against Kiriloff at 1B until either Severino shows real promise or we grab somebody at the deadline.

Only carry 14 position players in playoffs……13 position players through the year for a while during the season. 13 guys for line-up & 13 arms…….5 starters & 8 guys in the Pen. The infield you site is popular but I’ve pushed back every time I see it shown. There is no practical RH bat at 1B. Farmer is the depth guy at SS - 2B -3B. People say “he can play 1B…..” how many games did he play there last year? Polanco needs to be moved. Miranda is the obvious add to the IF…..if he can’t hit in Spring Training they will be scrambling! Gordon & Martin will compete over the OF need. If they are near similar offensively, Gordon gets the nod to start season because he’s out of options. He makes the team or gets traded or gets released. Polanco & Larnach &/or Gordon need to be moved.

Clevinger was exonerated - at least in the Press I saw. 15 people interviewed by MLB - zero discipline. Sounded like a past female scorned…….that’s what I read. No criminal stuff. Always proclaimed innocence. Not excusing anything done out of bounds but he’s pitched both years since coming back from surgery….,I don’t know that he’s any sort of problem other than maybe wanting too much $$ or too many years? Urias - disciplined last year - not sure where that’s at? Bauer got the death penalty, essentially - 360 games approximately, reduced to 190 games approximately. He’s apologized & is still way on the outside looking in…….