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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    One can tell they really like his 1B defense since last night they could have pinch it Vazquez v. LH pitcher with RISP & then had him play 1B. Instead they left Gallo in the game and gave up the automatic out with Gallo at the plate. Once Kirilloff is back & Castro is back, the expanded roster starts to clog & Joey may be gone quickly…….Luplow v. Gallo??
  2. JD-TWINS
    Solano is batting .294 (or close) after going 4 for 5 last night, his only out was a line drive 390ft to the track in center. Kepler pinch hit - came through against lefty - fled to track in left for an out - then got another hit. Polanco is hitting from both sides of the plate. These guys, with Lewis & Kirilloff, need to be the meat of our line-up! I would certainly move CC. The double plays & lack of any thought to give himself up to move runners isn’t tolerable. Everyday v. RH pitching I would bat 1-6, JulienDH-Polanco-Kepler-Kirilloff-Lewis-Walner, with CC-Jeffers-Taylor……… V. LH pitching I would bat CC-Lewis-SolanoDH-Jeffers-Kirilloff-Farmer-Luplow-Walner-Taylor Castro-Vazquez……maybe Buxton for our 14-15 guys/bats in October. 11-12 pitchers depending upon which series. Seems any move from the 3 or 4 spot reduces pressure on Correa.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Sure would expect a minimum of 5-4 through those 9. Can we go 10-8 in the other remaining games? That would get us to 85 wins……sure hope that’s our minimum. Good news is, with our stater depth on the staff, even if we dial a couple guys back, we’ll still have quality on the mound each day in the last few series.
  4. JD-TWINS
    8 guys, maybe only 7 guys in the Pen in October. Can shuffle roster after each series. 11 or 12 man staff: Extra hitters!! Could non-roster Ober in first 3 game series for an extra bat? Rotation: Lopez, Gray, Maeda, & Ober Baseline Pen: Thielbar, Pagan. Jax, & Duran Options: Ryan, Varland, Kuechel, Funderburk Maybe’s: Stewart Varland & Ryan are hard throwing - 2 inning guys that can get us the 6th & 7th alternately in playoff games or the 7th & 8th. Baseline 4 above typically handle 8th & 9th! If Ryan keeps throwing well, deeper into September, it’s difficult not to exchange him with Ober in rotation.
  5. JD-TWINS
    Music to my ears, Varland out of the bullpen! Varland average velocity 97MPH plus. Kirilloff 3 hits - back to Twins soon!! I think with the offensive issues v. LH pitching the team has had, it will be tough to release Luplow this month. With Castro back & Kirilloff back I can’t see any justification to keep Gallo on the roster. They can move Stevenson back & a pitcher to open roster spots for those 2 guys in the short term………..Buxton has to displace Gallo later this month. Hopefully, Varland will displace Floro some time soon!
  6. JD-TWINS
    -9:00 p.m. - good call - Guardians grabbed all 3 pitcher - blocked us from grabbing Moore
  7. JD-TWINS
    It’s a tie game in extra’s and you are in scoring position - no earthly reason to be aggressive on a pop foul ball on the infield! I understand he didn’t plan on falling down but after the catch we got 2 more shots at driving him in for the win - then no chance - come on Joey.
  8. JD-TWINS
    Kepler’s .250BA - 21 HR - .802 OPS & solid D makes him one of the top 3-4 Right Fielders in the AL ……..Top 6-7 in the game!! Verdugo - Garcia are similar offensively with BA & OPS & just a few ticks ahead of Kepler. Don't see other guys play much but Max’s defense is still top shelf!
  9. JD-TWINS
    Farmer - Solano - Kepler are just getting hits & more hits. For Kepler to be up to .250BA & over .800 OPS is unbelievable, frankly. He may be the best all around right fielder in the AL right now? He’s batting 3rd and getting one or two hits a day. Kuechel has given up 7 earned runs in 4 appearances to date (6 in one inning) over 18 innings. ERA of 3.50……outstanding pick up. Got Ryan healed and only one rocky game. Like the piggyback concept. Maybe do it with Kuechel & Winder to give Ober a skipped start? He needs a break! Ober can be optioned - could bring Varland up and get 2 skipped starts for Ober? If we had Old School management, Joey Gallo would have been DFA’d at about 6:00 p.m CST today……….what kind of base running was that??? Castro will be back Friday (3 games to get through) with roster expansion and should be in the OF daily to hide Luplow/Gallo & Taylor til his leg is right. Best news of all is Kirilloff is nearing a re-hab stint in the next 7-10 days……really need that guy! Solano is playing almost flawlessly in Kirilloff’s absence though! Batting order with associated OPS: Julien.. .857 - Polanco.. .750 - Kepler.. .801 - CC.. .715 - Kirilloff.. .799 - Wallner.. .878 - Lewis.. .885 - Jeffers.. .884 - Castro.. .692 v. RH starting pitching………coming soon!! 6 lefties that can hit + Lewis & CC & Jeffers Expanded rostered guys: Taylor/Solano/Farmer/Vazquez …..probably Luplow & Gallo……Buxton displaces one of the last 2 guys at some point mid-September. 18-13 from here on out to get to 86 wins - nice goal for the Division title!
  10. JD-TWINS
    Taylor, theoretically, is a guy to specialize v. LH pitching…….has been forced into everyday role and gas probably started v. 80 RH this year. Mediocre results. % go to Gallo v. Scherzer ….but I think the biggest reason Luplow & Gallo played was due to Taylor’s “tight hamstring” mentioned only briefly on the telecast. Seems his leg’s not right……….Might see an exchange on IL with him & Castro in next day or two. Maybe your guy Martin by the end of the week?
  11. JD-TWINS
    Liked the last comment on Varland…..we don’t NEED to give him a chance, he needs to prove he deserves a chance. Being a good guy - being from MN doesn’t matter. Nobody handed Ober a spot - that’s for sure. Maeda is worth a 2 year deal for $25M -$28M if he finishes well in ‘23. I like the “mutual option” for ‘25. He’s been making a base of $3.1M for 8 years……along with incentives that could earn him another $2.5 - $5M if he was healthy, based on innings and # of starts. He needs to be paid. He seems to like our team - we’ve treated him well & even though he’s 35, he has a rebuilt arm and he gets guys out. Basically, we would extend him for less than what we would be paying Mahle. Mahle - Gray gone, that’s $25-27M saved…….if Maeda is making $5.5M this year it would be a decent raise at his age to $12.5M Take some of the other $ left and try to add some depth to the Pen - just one guy with a track record……doesn’t have to be a star…….. just a 65 inning/yr guy with ERA under 3.80. Use some of other balance of $ to tie up Jax & Duran.
  12. JD-TWINS
    It’s got 2-3 too many guys…..hoping for 7 man Pen in Playoffs……certainly a max of 8. Once Cleveland “SOLD” Civale & Josh Bell the FO recognized the Division was pretty tough to lose. No need for knee jerk trades for a reliever that may or may not be effective. We’ll need 4 guys in the rotation in October: Lopez-Gray-Maeda-Ober 7 guys for relief with the off days: Ryan-Varland-Jax-Pagan…..Thielbar-Kuechel… Duran Funderburk or Stewart are still possible contributors in the Pen. We’ll piece it together for 33 more games & then it’s on. Assuming Varland will be moved into position for 2-3 appearances by September 20…..possible we could experiment with Kuechel in that same time range, late next month. Need a tweak or two in the Pen during the off-season.
  13. JD-TWINS
    4 guys in rotation for playoffs ……probably 7 guys in the Pen. 15 bats. Lopez-Gray-Maeda have been our top 3 pitchers for 2 months! Ober is a starter due to consistency & mental make-up. Agreed on Varland & Kuechel. October Pen: Ryan - Varland - Kuechel (3 solid long guys) - Jax - Thielbar - Pagan - Duran If Kirilloff or Buxton aren’t ready to go by September 1 roster expansion, I see Martín being a good idea. DFAing Donovan Solano or having Martin plug in at 1st base is nuts though……don’t see any logic in either of these moves. We won’t let Julien play first base, for good reason - why would they have a kid come up and play somewhere he isn’t familiar with in the middle of a Divisional race??? Solano plays first base and is clutch & is batting .285 over 110 games - 308 AB’s with a .770 OPS……he’s our 3rd or 4th best hitter. He’s getting it done! Roster expands in 6 days - Solano & Gallo are at 1B through September until Kirilloff is back! Luplow got claimed & rostered ahead of farm guys coming up because he’s got a floor they can live with - he’s got nerve - been in the Show - fits in & they can cut anytime due to no future with club. Tough to have a kid come up and get 11 AB’s & get sent back down due to lack of performance or some mistake. We need to focus on October’s roster……Luplow is the 15th bat or DFA’d by then. Gallo will be dressed and non-rostered by Oct 2. If guys don’t heal we’ll see a couple young guys by next Friday. Hoping Kirilloff spoils somebody’s chance because we need him!! Completely open to Funderburk and we can figure out the 40 man roadblock. No need to worry about Nick Gordon the remainder of this year. Castro will be back, worst case, by next Friday. 19 runs in 2 games……no guarantees but I think we’re fine.
  14. JD-TWINS
    Correct. Professionalism - experience - nerve are the reasons Luplow was picked off the waiver wire over our Farmhands. Seems obvious. We have a half dozen guys that could be argued have a better upside than Luplow this year & almost certainly in the future. He fits in - he’s been in the Show…….his floor is higher and his mindset & ability to fit in are proven.
  15. JD-TWINS
    An aside from topic: Kepler - .244BA - .792OPS Solano - .282BA - .770OPS Jeffers - .288BA - .884OPS Wallner - .244BA - .878OPS Julien - .285 - .857OPS Lewis - .328 - .885OPS When Polanco - Correa - Taylor - etc. are your weak links, your line-up is in good shape! Never gonna be perfect, but if we could get Kirilloff (.270BA - .799OPS) back we stack up with anyone in baseball! Get the pitchers some rest by utilizing Kuechel & Varland over last 33 starts & am optimistic about hosting first round.
  16. JD-TWINS
    It would be great to skip a start or two for Ober! No 6 man rotation/piggyback. Maeda is strong with the rebuilt arm & rest he got early this year & pitching well. Skip a start in late September. Gray & Lopez could use 1 skip each at some point mid-month. Sooner the better. 4 starters in Playoffs is plenty with the travel days in 7 games series………..5 starters may be an advantage just because teams don’t see the same guy twice in a week. I think we go with Lopez, Gray, Maeda, & Ober in rotation & with Ryan, Kuechel, Varland, Pagan, Thielbar, Jax, & Duran. ……4 starters & 7 relievers gives us 15 bats in October.
  17. JD-TWINS
    Appreciate the details. Does it not make sense to do a similar style deal with Ryan/Ober (if confident in their health) at a smaller number or whatever seems market appropriate for an early deal? I get Lopez was deeper in his career so therefore the smaller number for a firm deal with these less experienced guys. All 3 are 27, I think? I guess your point is Lopez was free after ‘24 and these guys are not until after ‘27 or so.
  18. JD-TWINS
    Royce Lewis is a weapon isn’t he!! Really hoping for some good news on Kirilloff to really lengthen the line-up soon. Any news on his health? Veteran pick-ups by FO paying off again……Farmer - Solano - Taylor all hit the ball & played solid Defense. How about Solano at 2B, after all night at first, in the 9th and initiating the double play flawlessly? Nice! CC - RBI big double after Wallner’s laser off the wall. Sweet base running by Wallner to score. Looked like a complete club last night even with Pablo struggling through 5.
  19. JD-TWINS
    I get the economics - tough to argue. However, they have Lopez locked up through ‘27 so offering them some early security, maybe during next season if things are going well, allows us to get them for a known number going forward. Gets them feeling better about the job and they give up some $ in long-term for near term security. Once they are signed for a known number, they can be traded more easily if we want to move them. I like the good faith side of the long-term deals for both sides…….maybe a naive point of view?
  20. JD-TWINS
    Never moving to Minnesota, UNLESS, we get to the AL Championship Series. At that point, we are young and potentially attractive. 10% chance he comes. He can’t pitch in ‘24 and may never be able to pitch “well” again. Heading for 2nd Tommy John. I think the only fair approach is to incentivize the pitching half of contract with a baseline regardless of his success as a pitcher, i.e. $10M/year …..with $15M/year of easily attained incentives…..innings & ERA based. $35M/year for offense……can’t safely hit until August of ‘24. Essentially paying him in ‘24 because you like him. $45M plus pitching incentives x 7 years……if he can pitch it’s 7 years for $420million. After we re-sign Maeda ….(key to get Ohtani!) & pick up Kepler’s option we have about $50M left from this year’s budget……..Ohtani’s signing is worth 5,000 patrons x 81 games + $5.00 additional charge per ticket on all tickets. 1.8M (current attendance) x $5.00 = $9M Addl. 400K patrons x $45 = $18M…….plus $6M net on concessions $33M just in additional revenue from signing Ohtani $33M + $50M = $83M to spend on Ohtani & supplementing the team outside Maeda & Kepler…….seems pretty reasonable to spend $45M - $60M on Ohtani. Not coming to Land-o-Lakes for $60M, nor any amount.
  21. JD-TWINS
    Buxton might play 50 games in CF & 80 at DH……if that’s our hope he’ll probably play 30 & 65 respectively. Bottom line is we need a CF. Who plays when, is debatable, but here are the options (Kepler only in RF)…….also, we face 75% RH pitching starters! Wallner - Buxton - Kepler - Castro - Taylor or Gordon Lewis is at 3B because 75% of the games are against RH starters and we’ll want Wallner & Kepler starting those games. If physically possible for Byron, we could start Taylor-Buxton-Castro v. LH pitching. Lewis bat would be beneficial from the right side in a corner OF spot……play Farmer & Solano 1st & 2nd but who plays 3B - no right handed bat left. Might as well just lock in Lewis at 3B
  22. JD-TWINS
    I would focus on Ryan & Ober this off-season for early deals…….maybe Duran & Jax. Re-sign Maeda for 2 years. Let Lewis play for 3 months in a row at some point before considering any type of deal. He’s fun to watch - a real talent! Can only hope Lee is 85% as good. Kirilloff is the same deal - need 3-4 months in a row……….he too is a talent!
  23. JD-TWINS
    Kepler is having his 2nd best season as a Twin. There’s no question about these facts. If we said Kepler, in 2023, will hit .243 BA (career .233) - strikeout less than 25% of the time - hit 20 HR (in 98 games) potentially 25 for the season - .780 OPS………We would want to trade for him! Still playing very solid defense as well. I wanted to DFA him in June……he’s earned respect with the change in his approach at the plate. He hits the ball hard WAY more often than he did the first 3 months……the numbers have come up accordingly. Pagan still drives me crazy - great stuff - loses focus and command about once a month. Gallo’s defensive flexibility & competence on defense is the reason for keeping him, along with clubhouse continuity. He’ll be around through September with the expanded roster and then to watch the games as a non-rostered teammate in October. Not fortifying the Pen at the deadline was disappointing! That said, we need 4 starters for playoffs, maximum: Lopez, Gray, Maeda, Ober Pen: Ryan - Varland - Kuechel &/or Funderburk - Jax - Duran - Thielbar - Pagan…….7 or 8 guys for playoffs. Possibly only 7 in Pen to keep 15 bats available?
  24. JD-TWINS
    The differences between the guys make sense…….maybe a little low overall though? You didn’t have this information - Winder threw 3 innings of hitless tonight, big HOLD & got the win. Jax-Thielbar ….8 Duran….9 Pagan……7 Floro-Ortega-Balazovic-Winder…..6.5 Sands …..5 I look at these numbers as how many times out of ten they will be successful…….not necessarily perfect but not terrible. Pitchers give up runs once in a while through no fault of their own……..Duran in Milwaukee - Taylor has a one base error and the guy scores with 2 outs in a chopper to 3rd. Similar rankings. Every time I get soft and start believing in Pagan he breaks my heart or makes me want to put out a contract on him. Tough watch!!
  25. JD-TWINS
    With 35 games left, and postseason a strong possibility, it seems buying roster space for healthy guys while putting him on IL to prepare for maybe 12-15 starts in CF makes perfect sense. Sense of urgency changes as playoffs are more near & Twins need him in CF or possibly not at all. Time to find out what he can do over a short burst of games.
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