JD-TWINS

Farmer’s range has diminished? …….better defensively than Polanco & Julien at 2B in ‘23………..principally, he played SS when CC was out last year. I think the reduced range thought is pretty subjective. I think 100% that Castro will play v. RH pitching. Last year he played parts of 43 games in CF. That’s when Taylor was on the club. Buxton has played 100 games ONCE in his career. To say he’ll play 1/2 to 2/3 of the games in CF, PLUS a fair amount of games at DH is a tall ask/assumption! 72-75% of starters are RH…….Castro in the line-up. I just think he’ll see the vast majority of those games in CF…………if they sign Duvall or Taylor, that changes things. I think he’ll see some starts at 3B but not at 2B and very seldom, like 2-3 times, at SS.

Correct - but it will be in CF principally………realistically, Buxton is the 4th outfielder as the roster currently sits. No way Martin pencils in at CF ahead of Castro v. RH pitching, as you point out.

High bar for hitter acquired if .803 OPS Castro has hitting LH is the floor. Hope so too!

Any hitter obtained sure as heck better be able to play CF!!!! I can’t see many starts in the infield at all if he’s expected to be the primary depth for Buxton. He’ll probably start nearly every game that has a RH pitcher as opposition……………can’t imagine Buxton playing more than 40-50 games in CF. If Martin is the depth - he hits RH & Castro still starts primarily as the LH bat in CF. Farmer was to be the starting SS in ‘23 before CC was signed, so he’s the depth guy there unless Lee is on roster. Farmer is the default 2B v. LH pitching. Farmer, if not playing SS or 2B, is the first alternate at 3B until Lee comes up, whenever that may be. Castro will probably be the RH batting option in LF v. LH pitching. Martin/new guy could be in that mix as well.

It seems they need to bring Martin up out of Spring Training or sign a guy that can play 40% of the starts in CF. Maybe Duvall ………maybe even Taylor? Unless this happens, to free up Castro, he won’t see the dirt much at all, if ever, this year. He’ll need to constantly be ready to replace Buxton or start in CF. Love his versatility & his grit. Great OF arm. 33 steals. Big contributor!

Not trying to replace ERA stats! Gray gave us chances to win games ……… Maeda gave us chances to win games. Regular Season one went 8-8 & the other 6-8 with ERA’s 1.6 runs apart. Gray’s record should have been better but it wasn’t. Reality. He was 1 - 1 in the Playoffs with an OK 5 inning start against Toronto (picked a guy off 2B to escape a jam) & a poor start v. Astros. Reality. Between them, the Team’s outcomes were 21-26 (Gray’s starts were 15-18)……..no reason to be overly concerned with losing the #2 Cy Young candidate. Not trying to be flip about losing Gray or Maeda. Gotta have good innings/outings from replacements but shouldn’t be afraid with the guys stepping in to be able to have a .500 record in their starts.

Team’s outcomes in Gray’s starts, 15-18. Could have - should have been 4 or 5 games better with some run support…………an aside, Maeda’s outcomes were 6-8. That’s a combined record of 21-26. That’s reality. Those numbers are what the Team needs to replace & match or fully expect to better in ‘24……….not trying to replace ERA stats. Gray gave up a ridiculously low % of HR’s in ‘23. Good for him! Tough to sustain at that rate. When he challenged hitters and made the mental adjustment - strategic adjustment to not walk guys, his results were great. He pitched two Playoff games & got out of a big jam by picking a guy off 2B. 5 inning win. His Astros start was not good. I think with a really solid 8 guys (Varland & Canterino added) in the Pen in October, Twins can be very competitive on the mound. I completely expect that between Paddack - Varland - DeSclafani, the Team can post a record of .500 or better………….if they go .500 and all else is static, the Team wins 90 games. I would expect the other 3 starters to have better won/loss numbers in ‘24 and I would expect the offense to be more consistent through the year in ‘24 as well. Gotta move on and no reason not to expect positive outcomes.

Sure sounded like Lee’s shootouts be 3B in comments from ‘23. Then Lewis showed up really big and nobody thinks he should be disrupted……….don’t agree. If Lee’s the best 3B then Lewis should go to left or 1B (Kirilloff to LF then) …….not real sure this happens in ‘24?? They could split time at 3B in ‘24 & Lewis could DH some - LF some.

Probably most value as a spot starter as needed moving up & down from St. Paul.

Come on, there’s probably guys that play for Miesville that would play ahead of Bubba T. - he can run…….&………….he’s #7 on our depth chart if he doesn’t get claimed. Team is in real trouble if they have to roster him! I honestly believe Emma would get called up before Bubba sees Target Field. My hope is they spend on a starting arm first……..if not, I hope they sign Adam Duvall…..,need depth in CF for reasons stated above.

Headrick - maybe in the relief mix prior to Okert?

FanGraphs has Twins Pen as #1 in AL & #3 in the game, before the latest acquisition.

Austin Martin……Duvall in a real stretch? Whoever it is, they have to be able to play CF.

Broadcasting a spending cap & need/desire to move some contracts is not very effective business. Given. Do not understand the “compromised 2B” comment at all? Polanco has played 104 games & 80 games the last two years. Availability like that compromises our level of play at 2B. I’d be guessing, but my assumption is he started maybe 68 games at 2B in ‘23. Team did just fine. Julien/Farmer is as good as one could expect from 2B play around the game today offensively. Julien grades better defensively at 2B than Polanco in ‘23 & Farmer better than either on D.…….doesn’t matter how good Polanco’s been historically………it’s like assuming Buxton will be in good health & produce at an All-star level…………probable wishful thinking. FanGraphs - just another random reference, nothing extra special - rated the Polanco trade as a C- for Seattle but upgraded it to a B+ due to their deep need for a presence like Polanco. It gave the Twins an A in the trade. The Athletic has the Twins bullpen as the 3rd best in baseball - best in A.L. - Topa is certainly a nice piece in that evaluation. Vazquez OPS+ for past 3 seasons have been 77, 99, & 65. He sure is DUE! Don’t understand the probability for Jeffers to regress & yet he’s part of a package to obtain Luzardo because of his future in the game? Jeffers (134 OPS+ in ‘23) can regress 25% and be better than Vazquez most recent best and he’s 6/7 years younger. Why does trading Vazquez create a chasm behind Jeffers in our catching depth but there’s no issue if Jeffers is traded? I really like Polanco. I did think he should be moved due to log jam at 2B & his declining health - thought the Vazquez signing made good sense and think they should keep him. I don’t like Julien’s general demeanor and the fact that he strikes out looking too often. His defense is mediocre. His youth & ability to improve is high & backed by .381 OBP & a 130 OPS+ and the 3rd lowest chase rate in the game, along with 16 HR in only 338 AB’s. He was a rookie! He too can regress and still be good……doubtful he goes backward as he’ll still be part of a solid platoon combination & face primarily RH pitching. Can’t get a guy like Luzardo without giving up something that hurts a bit. While I thought 3-4 months ago that Julien made sense to get that done - they don’t need a bat first 2B since that’s Arraez role. Also, and more importantly, I think they need to retain his offense. Kirilloff/Santana - Julien/Farmer - CC - Lewis is a very solid infield with Castro/Martin potentially filling holes as needed if there are injuries…………Lee coming in the summer as needed.

Honestly, not aware of what BAM money is? Not researching it today - however, I do know the Twins spent $$ in line with market size in ‘23 in relation to the rest of MLB. They were 17th in spending in ‘23. If that’s the case, not sure, now that TV $$ have been secured at a defined level for ‘24, how they could justify staying at current $124M total payroll. Normalcy is increasing payroll 5% annually, at a minimum. $124M is a reduction of 20% from last year’s $154M. It’s a 25% reduction from the 5% increase total of $162M. With ticket sales up due to successful outcome last season, one would think that spending would be in line with last season (commensurate to market size) at near $150M………why wouldn’t it be similar?

So, my prediction/hope, which means nothing, is 40-45 starts in CF and 70 starts at DH. 2 starts per week typical in CF & 1 start for a handful of weeks. Equates to 70% of games started for a guy who averages 46% of games. A huge jump and potential impact on the Team’s offense. If he can hit his career average of .239, he’ll hit 25 HR & 25 doubles without a problem in only 450-480 AB’s. Going into the Playoffs with him at a healthy level and able to start 50% of the time in CF & DH other games as it makes sense, that would be interesting. TWINS have had expectations, hopes of Byron playing CF for 125-140 games a number of years (140 games in 2017)……..never passed 100 games total but once. Expecting 80 starts in CF is nice to say but realistically, 1/2 that would be fine if he can contribute in the box 80 additional games at DH.

March/April 2023, having signed Correa to $35M/yr again - now for 6 years & Vazquez for $10M/yr & 3 years……..people complaining routinely about the Team’s lack of spending, poor roster, and FO futility. Taylor - Solano - Farmer - Castro were added for depth for about $13M total and none of them were worthwhile for many here. Nothing but good results from these guys for 6 months. The everyday roster is solid. Nobody’s roster is perfect. Can complain about whatever one likes but this roster is fine and there’s depth everywhere with youth nearly ready in St Paul as well. Could use another starter to be high end competitive - no argument!

Never said they might not want to trade one or even two pitching pieces. Seems obvious they would IF everyone heals properly. I don’t think they want to nor would consider trading them to a Top contender they may need to meet, beat in the Playoffs. Twins/Seattle/Yankees/etc. …….15 teams in the N.L. & probably 6-7 teams in A.L. to negotiate with that wouldn’t threaten them in the near-term.

Their payroll was at $154M in ‘23 & the “norm” in the game is that most organizations increase payroll 5% - 10% annually under normal conditions. Twins were #17 in baseball in ‘23 and spending commensurate to their local market size. With no interruptions in TV revenue going into ‘24, the baseline total would have normally been $162M, at a minimum. TV deal in ‘23 was $54M, I believe - this year it’s 85% of that, proclaimed here somewhere. That’s $48.5M instead of $54M. There’s a difference between the two TV total’s of $5.5M less, that is to remain level in ‘24, to the spending in ‘23. Typical conditions payroll should/would have been $162M - the ‘24 payroll with TV revenue adjusted for reduced TV $$ ($5.5M) should be $156M. Currently, most agree that the payroll for ‘24 sits at $124M. I understand the organization decided to reduce spending “due to TV $$ uncertainty”. Seems there is room for J. Montgomery at $26M/year OR Clevinger/Duvall for total of $25M/year and the total payroll stays at $150M maximum. If either of these spending moves are made the Twins would be the favorite in the AL or at least a strong contender! I have never been critical of the FO (supportive) - organization’s level of spending - managing of Baldelli - etc……..don’t understand how the ownership/FO would not NOW act on solidifying this team as a Pennant favorite.

Buxton will have to DH a bunch……..potentially, if Lee is good early and is moved up, either Lewis or Julien have to DH as well. No place for J.D. Martinez……..particularly at $20M. Same with Soler. The Rangers aren’t going to trade any extra pitching they may have to the Twins. We probably don’t want to supplement their roster with any position players that could contribute either.

Bauer had a lot more problems than his off the field activities! As you mention, a “players coach” like Francona couldn’t stand him - he was arrogant in his time here in Cincinnati - his Dodger career was not smooth! Clevinger, vilified here in TD for the most part. What I found in a cursory search was that a former female friend made accusations - he had moved on with someone else and the former wanted a pound of flesh. MLB interviewed 15 people around the situation and gave Clevinger no penalty…….,They suspended Bauer for hundreds of games and he appealed & got it reduced to under 200 games. Pretty different situations. Clevinger had a 9-9 record with the lowly White Sox in ‘23. 131 innings and an ERA of 3.77. He’s a veteran that gets guys out! Assuming about $16M/yr for a couple years. Seems like the best way to add quality depth and keep trade assets for another day.

Why would they want to expose what they are trying to do if they are negotiating on multiple fronts? Seems to me the assumption is that there is always some level of working diligently towards improving the team…….that’s the bulk of the FO’s job.

If there’s a trade for pitching and either or both of Gordon/Martin gets moved. ………Adam Duvall really makes sense!

So, if they need a SS I would consider offering the following for Luzardo. Martin & Gordon as a CF platoon and SS depth as well. Potentially, they could then move Jazz Chisholm to SS to open CF for the two acquired in the trade. Larnach as a LF & DH candidate. EITHER Vazquez (with $4M from Twins) OR Camargo as the Catcher they want. The late ‘24 first round compensatory draft pick for Gray. DeSclafani, as an innings eating option to help displace Luzardo’s lost innings. 6 guys…….(their choice at Catcher between youth or veteran) Martin/Gordon are decent Left/Right option in CF and/or RF. Larnach. A first round pick and an additional veteran arm for your staff. Twins give up the $8M to help cover DeSclafani’s salary. Giving the Marlins their choice of 2 Prospects and just crossing out the untouchables “Top 10” maybe that’s received better? Any 3 from the “veteran list”, Larnach - Miranda - Gordon - Sands - Headrick - Winder - DeSclafani (with $8M) - Vazquez (with $4M). With one of available prospects of Martin or Camargo. Then 1 of the #10 - #20 prospects, Marlins choice. Compensatory pick for Gray.

A bit of an aside from just Sands…….was looking at an article in The Athletic - says FanGraphs, for what it’s worth, has the Twin’s Pen at #3 in the game for ‘24 and #1 in the American League. 26 man Pen: Duran - Thielbar - Stewart - Jax - Topa - Alcala - Staumont - Jackson 40 man Pen depth: Sands - Funderburk - Winder - Weiss………..in the October mix…….Canterino & either Paddack or Varland……..that’s impressive! I think Funderburk has the spot identified with Staumont out of Spring Training. Also, Canterino may be groomed for the Pen starting around July 1 in St. Paul, to be added to big club in September.