JD-TWINS

In ‘23, Maeda threw 106 innings - 4.22 ERA - he went 6-8. I realize Paddack was probably 2-3 mph higher than his norm when throwing out of the Pen in late ‘23, but I think he can manage meeting or being better than Maeda was in ‘23. Festa/SWR/Varland/DeSclafani all blend together for 200 innings IMO & a .500 or better record in their 40 plus starts. Lopez-Ober-Ryan were 30-24 in ‘23. With a mildly more consistent offense and a better Pen it seems, with reasonable health, the expectation should be for these guys to improve! ………..IMO all should be more definitive in this outcome, rather than “they might” improve. Maybe too lofty?

Ober’s first full year in the Show is the peak of his career?? Lopez getting a new pitch (sweeper) under control - getting in way better physical shape - gaining 1.5 mph on his fastball from the end of ‘22 and he’s peaked as well??? Jeffers played maybe 50% of the games in sum last year - he’ll be blended into a better line-up top to bottom in ‘24 and will have the experience of 400 more AB’s in the Show and the confidence that comes with the highest catcher OPS in ‘23…..he too has peaked???? Buxton - Correa - Vazquez can’t perform any more poorly in my opinion - not exactly “optimistic”, just pragmatic. …………………………… #2 Addressing the original post…..don’t understand how the Twins restrictive spending in ‘24 will cause problems with arbitration guys in ‘25? #3 How can anyone argue that the team’s roster is worse in ‘24 than in ‘23? They have Chris Paddack replacing Kenta Maeda ……can’t be worse than a draw. 3 other starters that are 27-28-29 that were all starters in ‘23 as well. One has progressed enough after 2 playoff games with a .71 ERA that many see him as a Top 5 Cy Young candidate in the AL. The Pen has been characterized as the 2nd best in the game & #1 in the AL. Varland/DeSclafani/Festa/SWR can pitch 200 plus innings and have a record in their starts comparable or better than Gray. Team was 15-18 in his starts in ‘23. (not saying Gray sucks - just reporting reality to the value the team derived in his starts) Royce Lewis - Eddie Julien/Kyle Farmer - Kirilloff/Santana all as starters from the jump in ‘24. Wallner in LF from the jump in ‘24. Buxton able to start 35-75 games in CF after zero in ‘23. Vazquez in better shape & Jeffers coming off best Catcher OPS in ‘23. Kepler coming back from an elite 2nd half is an aside because he was & has been in the roster for years…….still more upbeat than when entering ‘23. Castro on the 26 man from the jump & he has a year under his belt where he started the 4th most games of anyone on the team - will play 3 positions this year at a minimum - he had a 106 OPS+ and stole 33 bases in ‘23. I know…….the thinking is blue sky & everyone is going to regress ………have seen that here on numerous posts……..it’s not all roses but they have a good club!!

Santana’s contribution is overstated because Kirilloff will start 60 - 70% of the games at 1B. Am assuming he may get some starts in LF when Wallner or Kepler (Wallner to RF) need some rest when facing a RH pitcher. Santana is a gamer & his defense is very good & he’s a good RH solution at 1B v. LH pitching. Maybe 225-250 AB’s unless Kirilloff is hurt. Pitching comments were all on point!! Glad to see written elsewhere today that Vazquez rededicated himself over the Winter to work on his body - weight - bat speed. He was a .271 average hitter ‘19-‘22…..,a little improvement there could be nice. Buxton & Correa will be better - don’t think that’s really a question. Will they have “good year” is debatable but there should be improvement from both. Not sure why everyone think Wallner was a mirage? I think he could be a star by ‘25 after 550 AB’s this year……,,,,I think Kirilloff gets 475-525 AB’s and if he does he will be playing well - could be a very solid contributor!! Don’t understand Julien’s upside with walk rate - low chase rate - bat to ball skills……..and then whenever Lee is ready he’ll takeover 2B……….oh, and Farmer is the platoon guy at 2B with Julien and he had a plus 20 in games he started last year…….70-50 was the team record. Lee will be eased into play and my assumption is he will DH some & will live in a reserve roll on the left side of the infield. Kepler’s offense is hopeful but not necessarily expected - a bonus. If the veterans, Kepler - Vazquez - Buxton - Correa have just decent years, the Team will be tough to beat!!

Good discussion point. I agree on your Prime & your middle age & your old. I think yers of service in The Show have a lot to do with how a player is viewed. Ober, while older but just coming off his first full year…….considered young. Buxton & Correa have been in Professional Baseball (2012) for many years but at 29/30 are still in their primes as real veterans. I see the Twins as a young club! 7 of the 12 older guys you listed (well done btw) are pitchers & 6 of them in the Pen. Kepler - Farmer - Santana are all 3 nearly guaranteed to be in their last year with the club. Vazquez & Buxton will return in ‘25. To me the core is young and there is good veteran leadership. Santana is probably the only “old” guy. As a contrast to Santana, Ryan, at 28 & entering his 3rd full season, is still pretty young!

So, the whole premise I addressed was “a pitcher can’t change at or after 27/28.” The subject was brought up here because, supposedly, Ryan can’t get any better. Lopez got better and tons of pitchers get better after age 27/28. Stewart-Tupa-Thielbar-Jackson (1/2 the current bullpen)……on & on I’m not talking about stats in the month of September year to year. His reputation and place in MLB changed nationally over the course of a year. End of one regular season compared to end of the following regular season……..& then………He was probably the best pitcher (in limited innings/appearances) in the 2023 post season. He’s routinely being discussed with 3-4 other guys as a serious candidate for AL Cy Young in ‘24. You say his September of ‘22 & ‘23 are comparable - his record was comparable - he didn’t really change……why is he a leading Cy Young candidate if he hasn’t changed? Good marketing?

Where does Buxton play? Pretty sure that we are all certain on the payroll - not happening for an OF. No disrespect here but don’t have a better way…..Big League Soorts - can only be so close to perfect, and it never is. It’s not theatre where you write your own script w/o any constraints. Budget could maybe absorb starting pitching OR an OF, that can play CF as well, for half or less than Bellinger.

Addition of SWEEPER - much better physical conditioning regimen - Elevated average velocity by 1.5MPH - SWEEPER. Dominant force in 2 playoff starts…… .71 ERA. 3rd in Baseball in strikeouts. Took ERA from 4.40 late June to 3.66 at end of regular season. If you don’t think Lopez was a better pitcher in September of ‘23 v. September of ‘22 not sure what to say.

Pablo sure changed a bunch……,we didn’t trade for a front running Cy Young pitcher last winter. Chins up!

I think it’s insulting to both. Montgomery has a 3.68 career ERA…….in a time when 3.50 ERA or better is excellence. Lopez was at 3.68 last year and #23 ERA in the game. There’s 30 teams. 3.68 for his career, Montgomery. Getting guys out is baseball - not 98MPH - ask Sonny Gray. Montgomery was excellent through the ‘23 post season. Radke was a horse and so is Montgomery. Proud to have either start game 1 or 2 of a playoff series! Staff of Montgomery blended with Ober, Ryan, & Lopez……….. then with Varland & Paddack added to the Playoff Bullpen, would be very, very good!!

Lopez is squarely at the top of the heap with a group of possible Cy Young guys in the AL. Sarah Lang at MLB sees him as the Top contender. He looked really good in the Playoffs. Stuff - composure - swag/aura - dominant! Paddack pitches 110 innings with a 4.20 ERA - that’s an upgrade in both totals v. Maeda’s 2023. Am confident this is very likely to happen. Varland/DeSclafani/Festa/SWR can piece together 220 innings……approximately. Am hoping they can go .500 in their probable combined 42 or so starts. Gray was 8-8 …….Team was 15-18 in his starts. Maeda was 6-8 ……..Team record in his 20 starts I can’t find. Bottom line is with a more consistent offense & a better bullpen, the 4 guys combining to eat up Gray’s innings and then some, have a good opportunity to win more games even though their ERA won’t be as low

No quality player is going to sign a short term deal where the Team has options to get out. If one gets hurt they are blowing in the wind in 9 months and would be damaged goods with very few teams of interest going forward. Way too much risk - stupid thing for them to do. It’s not like they don’t have options - they (clients & Boras) are trying to optimize their return. They could make a call and be signed by Tuesday. They’re playing the game to see who steps up. Bellinger could sign, as an example, a $23M - 4 year deal with the Cubs & probably 3 other teams anytime he chooses. He wants more $$ & more years. Same situation with Montgomery!! Martinez is limited as a DH - Chapman had a poor last 60% of season - Snell’s demands are nuts!

He’s played over 100 games once. He’s heading into his 10th year. He’s under contract. There is no change coming. Couldn't hit last year because he was hurt - no legs. He shouldn’t play CF every day. He needs to DH & be an offensive contributor while healthy. Probably is DH 80 games & in OF 45 games.

I too think the $$ are available this year……but with Lopez getting something like an additional $13M in ‘25???…… I’m sure this is in the minds and budget considerations of the FO! Again, IMO…….. based on what I’ve seen in print, Snell turned down $180 for 6 years with Yankees (very near that) and is trying to get 9 years for $270M……….so he’s crazy & OUT! Even 4 years for $30M each is way too risky with his career history. I love the ERA & therefore could care less about the walks and 5 innings of Great is worthwhile & acceptable but his successful years (health plus stats) are not very common. Montgomery is durable and has solid post season resume. He only pitched 75 innings from 2018 - 2020. He threw 155 - 157 - 178 - 188 innings in ‘17-‘21-‘22-‘23 respectively ……. career 3.68 ERA. He should be the target, or shift to Duvall, or do nothing in near term(maybe at deadline). In ‘25 they have the usual arbitration guys and the under control minimum $ guys. So maybe $30M for 18 guys, all coming back from this year………totals $35M to be conservative. Farmer gone at 6.25M - Kepler gone at $10M - Santana gone at $5.75M - DeSclafani gone at $12M………..totals $34M saved. 2025 Replacements for guys above: Minor league OF (or Lewis to LF) replaces Kepler - Miranda or Servino to Platoon with Kirillofff replaces Satana - Varland replaces DeSclafani - Lee replaces Farmer along with Martin Back for another year Vazquez at $10M - Buxton at $15M - CC at $36M - Lopez at $21.5M. $117.5M total committed payroll for ‘25. Seems that Montgomery around $25-$26M/ year would work over a handful of years.

NO they do not and will not!

If they think Buxton can play CF even 40 games……then Castro 80 games & Martin or Kiersy fill in as needed. Can’t afford risk nor $$$ nor duplication Bellinger brings in CF. Snell’s contract view is nuts and he’s really good every 3rd year. Way too many years & way too many $$. Chapman is of no interest. Martinez can only hit - valuable, but Buxton looms as probable DH half the games. Again, duplication. To me Montgomery is the only one that makes any sense. If he respects our offensive potential than he may sign because everyone ones to win. Escalating contract over 5 years paying $130M. If that’s too steep than we shouldn’t be discussing the possibilities here.

Wow. While I think the whole idea here is fantasy based, I’m surprised one wouldn’t want Montgomery if the loss was Kepler! I’m a Kepler fan but Montgomery added to our rotation takes us higher than last year’s starters & the Pen is super deep. Twins would be viewed as Top contender in AL. Kepler is gone at some point in the next 9 months IMO. Can’t see Team paying him a bigger contract at age 32. Wallner to RF - Lewis to LF - Lee/Castro/Farmer at 3B with Lewis there 25-30 games early while Lee gets ready. I like this playoff line-up.

Not trying to diminish the value of $50. My point is how does one justify spending $50 on each child brought to a game? ……..if that’s not an issue, it seems the tickets wouldn’t be either. Spending more than $20-$25 per child seems like quite a bit to me.

I just looked and found 24,300 and change per game in ‘23 at Target Field. It came out to nearly 1,975,000 total. Is there really a chance they go back to 1,500,000 unless Lopez & Lewis go down in May for the year? Win! To me, with a better May - June on the field, & they have an occasional promotion for tickets, they are nearly a lock for 2.1 million plus……a 8-10% increase in attendance.

Seems if the group has $50/kid to spend on concessions the ticket cost is probably a non-issue. Ticket deals are always a fun way to generate interest - Senior Day - Kid’s Day…..all good stuff.

Tried not to respond, but why are there complaints about Spring Training games? Seems like a deep dive to be bitter. Does anybody really want to watch more than a handful of an inning or three of a Spring Training game? To each his own, I guess.

Exactly - just win baby!! Watch parties???? Beer sales outside Park??? - maybe in my 20’s. Kids for free?? Maybe every Wednesday night & Sunday afternoon games - a nice compromise and still 25-30 games for the fans. Creates an alternative or awareness for those “non-kid friendly” fans.

I just got my Reminder Invoice for $149 for my MLB subscription via Amazon Prime. I pay the total at end of February and get essentially every game in Majors all year. Paying for Prime monthly was already a choice for Series/Movies/etc. The only blackouts I had last year were 2-3 Friday night games that Apple TV contracted for this specific games. I live in Cincinnati & can’t get to Target field more than every other year for a single game. I watch 125 games per year minimum the last 2 years. The coverage gives a choice of home or visitor broadcast team so you can switch to get the opposition’s point of view. Can listen to local Twins broadcast team for every game. They have the post-game coverage as well. $.92/game for 162 games. Sweet deal sitting in Ohio or in my home town of Red Wing. This is not just the Twin’s games it’s EVERY game in MLB, every day.

Really good to see that there are tools out there for guys to work with and get better even after a few rough years. The pitch mix & data all seem to support that he’ll have continued success. Need him to stay healthy. With the other options in the Pen going into the season, maybe Team can keep him in mid-40’s for innings so he’s fresh & effective in October?

Agreed! Don’t understand the negativity when there are 8 guys with ability trying to make the Team after Stewart - Thielbar - Jax - Duran Canterino, later in the summer will be in the mix……..Topa - Weiss - Staumont - Funderburk - Alcala - Okert - Jackson ………probably missed a couple guys? Canterino & Varland added to the mix in September & October seems to really take the Pen over the Top & dominant!

Would expect duplication of ‘22 for Lopez……185-190 innings. Seems there shouldn’t be any back up in innings between Ober & Ryan though. Ober threw 167 last year including AAA & took some time off late. I fully expect 165 innings from him without serious injury. I took a look and Ryan threw 5.45 innings per start in his Rookie Year in ‘22 and wore down after getting in 27 starts. In ‘23 he threw 5.55 innings per start and that was pitching through a leg injury…….in 29 starts he got to 161 innings while being out 3 weeks or so. Fully expect a minimum of 165 innings from Joe as well. Can Paddack keep his ERA below 4.25 & throw 110 innings? If he does, he’ll be better than Maeda was in ‘23 in both totals. Varland/DeSclafani/Festa/SWR should be able to provide 240 innings between them……….maybe, 90/90/40/20 innings respectively. This totals to 970 innings or 67% of the innings……..guessing that’s a little higher than average or at least league average? I think Twins Pen will be very solid but I don’t think they’ll get overworked with this rotation. The depth will really help if there’s an injury or two AND when the Pen gets overworked in a short window of 3-5 days, we can pull somebody up to fill in from St. Paul.