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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    The potential of getting a starter with the floor of Pablo Lopez is nearly impossible. I watched the “Top 10 pitcher” special on MLB network earlier this week & Lopez was in Top 10 of all starters for ‘24 on 2 of the 6 lists. One list was computer driven and other 5 from pundits like Brian Kenny & Ron Darling. XWOBA (likelihood of someone getting on base) for 2023 - López had the BEST in baseball! …….#1…….. We should shoot high but thinking Polanco or nearly anyone on our roster is worth a Top 10 pitcher is a BIG reach. My choice of Farmer over Polanco isn’t $$ based (it’s a minor plus) it’s because he’s a serviceable SS if needed and better than Jorge at 3B & 2B…………and MOST of all, he’s durable & available. Polanco’s talent on the IL doesn’t add anything. Am assuming we aren’t trading a starter from the current staff…..,,,, Twins cannot move Lewis - CC - Buxton - Lee - Jenkins - Duran either because of ability or contract. From the remaining pool of players in the organization Twins need to blend at least 3 guys to get a top line pitcher in trade, maybe 4 total - IMO. IF, we can get payroll flexibility by moving Polanco & maybe Vazquez (kick in $3M/year to other club) & then sign a FA pitcher………..this should be pursued!!
  2. JD-TWINS
    Through late summer of ‘23 the internal sentiment seemed to be that Lee projects better at 3B than 2B. Obviously, SS is clogged for another 2-5 years. If Lee slots at 3B later this summer or in ‘25 I’m all for Julien staying at 2B & Lewis displacing Wallner in LF. He’s the RH corner OF they “need” and Wallner fits in RF in ‘25.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Polanco played 80 games in ‘23…….guessing here but am thinking 5-10 at DH & 10 at 3B - close? 60 starts below average at 2B blended with 3 previous years of defense at 2B can get the whole to be average. Physically, he’s creeping up on being washed.
  4. JD-TWINS
    It says “blah defense”………..”attitude” was a separate comment. I don’t hate the guy but he appears cocky to me. Light on the hustle to first on ground balls - striking out looking and appearing (as many guys) that there was no way it was a strike……….attitude aside, I too had the Central Theme of, we shouldn’t trade either guy. Good OBP - good pop - good offensive value……those were my comments on Julien. “Farmer ragging him all season….” know nothing & have heard nothing about this…..,,many rookies have to put up with B.S., particularly if you can’t field your position.
  5. JD-TWINS
    Gotta link with a team that sees value with Polanco as a 2B for 75 games (maybe with a team developing a RH young 2B?) - 3B for 5 games if needed - 50 games as a DH. As well, he needs to be lumped with a Festa - E. Rodriguez combination to net a decent arm. Probably very slim things work for an arm but he’s netting nothing of near-term value by himself!
  6. JD-TWINS
    Not personal…….. I don’t get the affinity with Polanco with nearly every contributor here?? Mostly sentimentality? He’s played 55% of the games the past 2 years. His defense at 2B in ‘23 has been equated to comparable of Julien’s. Siting performance results from more than past 2 seasons, to me, isn’t very logical. One could argue nearly every player that’s had some success at one point will probably have success in ‘23 because we want it to be true. Farmer is rated better defensively than Polanco at all 3 glove positions in the infield. He has hit is career BA the past 2 years at .255. Polanco is a career .270 hitter with the past 2 seasons being .235 & .255. Farmer missed approximately a month in 2023 because he got hit in the face by a pitch - otherwise, available every day! $6.5M v. $10.5M OPS - HR pop - other offensive benefits don’t translate if one is on the IL. Seems to me that Twins have Julien - Farmer - Gordon - Castro - Martin all available to do some work at 2B going into Spring Training, with Julien getting 70% or more of starts in season. Lee coming mid-summer to add depth at 3B &/or 2B. Why they wouldn’t move Polanco while he has some value & when they need payroll flexibility? Not doing this doesn’t make sense to me. If they keep Polanco & don’t trade Farmer of Kepler - what’s the 13 man every day roster April 1st?
  7. JD-TWINS
    I’ve been on the trade Julien’s blah defense, attitude, & strikeouts & keep Lee train…….thinking lately about the # of HR’s - high OBP - improving defense and think they probably need to keep Julien! That said, I can’t get behind trading Lee either. Cop out here but they both seem to have good value and are low $$ for years to come. Not trying to be outside the box with some fantasy approach but it seems since we need a RH hitting Corner OF with pop and Lee potentially grades out well at 3B - they should leave Julien/Farmer at 2B for this year & Julien/Martin after ‘24 & move Lewis to LF - Wallner to RF - Lee at 3B. Seems to solve the OF dilemma - the Lee/Julien dilemma - should they hang on to Keppler going forward dilemma. Martin (fingers crossed) develops into a parallel guy to Castro with OF/IF capabilities.
  8. JD-TWINS
    I’ve been on the trade Julien’s blah defense, attitude, & strikeouts & keep Lee train…….thinking lately about the # of HR’s - high OBP - improving defense and think they probably need to keep Julien! That said, I can’t get behind trading Lee either. Cop out here but they both seem to have good value and are low $$ for years to come. Not trying to be outside the box with some fantasy approach but it seems since we need a RH hitting Corner OF with pop and Lee potentially grades out well at 3B - they should leave Julien/Farmer at 2B for this year & Julien/Martin after ‘24 & move Lewis to LF - Wallner to RF - Lee at 3B. Seems to solve the OF dilemma - the Lee/Julien dilemma - should they hang on to Keppler going forward dilemma. Martin (fingers crossed) develops into a parallel guy to Castro with OF/IF capabilities.
  9. JD-TWINS
    I value Max……wanted to lynch him last June & was writing apologies by the end of August. Love his defense! His last 85 games in 2023 were fantastic at the plate! $$ common sense for the Twins organization has to be part of the equation. History & current press releases are what the budget/payroll is built around, not the Pohlad’s family wealth. See if Kepler performs at a reasonable level through May &, if so, offer to extend him for a couple years at $15M/year. If he doesn’t extend, Wallner at a 2023 WAR of 2.2 & 14 HR’s in less than half as many AB’s than Kepler is a reasonable replacement in RF. Lee comes in to play 3B & Lewis moves to LF coming off a 2023 WAR of 2.4 & 15 HR’s in exactly 50% as many AB’s as Kepler. Kepler is traded prior to deadline.
  10. JD-TWINS
    I like Lewis to LF & Lee to 3B by start of ‘25 at latest. I would move Polanco ASAP, potentially with another couple guys for an arm……….worst case for prospect to loosen up $10.5M for ‘23 payroll. Kepler has to get a shot at RF - if he’s reasonable through May/June he should get an extension offer. If he’s OK but there are guys pushing their way up to the Show, he gets moved by the deadline.
  11. JD-TWINS
    2023 Offensive Teoscar: 625 AB’s - 211 Strikeouts - .258 BA - 26 HR - .305 OBP - 106 OPS+ ………2.1 WAR 2023 Offensive Max: 434 AB’s - 106 Strikeouts - .260 BA - 24 HR - .332 OBP - 121 OPS+ ………..2.9 WAR I don’t think either guy is worth $20-$22M/year. The Dodgers are creatively paying $15M this year and an $8.5M retirement bonus through the ‘30’s. To me, Teoscar is way overrated! Not great D & 211 K’s with 2 more HR than Kepler in nearly 200 more AB’s…….doesn’t seem like a very effective masher when viewed in big picture……….in ‘23 GALLO had 21 HR in 282 AB’s & plays a much better OF than Teoscar. Joey’s worth about $1M per year. Twins will never offer Max a QO that could be accepted at $20-$22M/year……..Wallner - Rodriguez - etc. will be the more prudent option in RF. IMO, If he’s playing well at the break & team’s OF depth is thin, they may make him an offer to extend………if OF depth is present in July, they’ll trade him to better the team & to get some return.
  12. JD-TWINS
    If he isn’t on that ballot it will be because he’s already been enshrined - right?
  13. JD-TWINS
    Big Mauer fan - debated with a Giant’s fan over this topic on Facebook a couple weeks ago. The reality of injuries are what they ate for all players but Posey did miss a season’s worth of games due to knee injury (collision at home) & he sat a season during Covid…….another 700 PA’s and he would be even a more formidable offensive comparison with Mauer!
  14. JD-TWINS
    Can’t imagine they move Lee. I do think he’ll be a depth guy after the deadline…….they may be able to move Farmer then? In ‘25, based on projections from articles here, Lee is looking like his best spot is 3B. If so, I like Lewis in LF with Wallner in RF & leave Julien at 2B. We’ll see.
  15. JD-TWINS
    Agree somewhat on the probable/potential platoon. However, nearly 75% of starting pitchers are RH & feed into Kirilloff’s playing time. The other mild objection is that you site Kirilloff’s lack of availability clearly but you refer to Miranda’s ‘22 season. He was out of the Show for 5 months last year. IMO, hoping I’m wrong, Miranda has a very difficult time making the 26 man out of Spring Training. Kirilloff’s first season in ‘21 was a partial of up & down as a 23 year old. Wrist hurt in ‘22 while Miranda had a reasonable season. In ‘23 Miranda was hurt & Kirilloff had a reasonable season. Kirilloff in ‘23 hit .270 - OBP .348 - .793 OPS - 117 OPS+. Miranda in ‘22 hit .268 - OBP .325 - .751 OPS - 114 OPS+. IMO Kirilloff starts 120 games at 1B - LF maybe 6 games - DH another 6 games……if he stays healthy (your concern is valid!) he’s a solid middle of the order guy that easily exceeds the Baseball Reference projections.
  16. JD-TWINS
    So, I didn’t listen to the information but agree with other guys comments here, he hasn’t been that impressive to date. Reason for my note here is to state how I wonder why “getting help at Driveline…..” isn’t mandated by the organization at some point. I get there must be a cost & there’s a labor agreement to protect the player’s free time but IT’S HIS CAREER. I keep waiting for the Dodgers or the Yankees to just buy Driveline and shut it down to the rest of baseball - pay the workers off - and get NDA’s in place. Seems it would buy a 5 year advantage?? After seeing how it (Driveline) helped 3-4 guys on the current Twin’s staff - it seems it should be mandatory for guys not progressing, that have unrealized expectations. Could be the list is TOO LONG?
  17. JD-TWINS
    Recognition is a pretty big key in hitting ……guys guess on certain counts or on what a guy will throw, & where, based on previous matchups. Can’t just assume balls will be thrown and then be able to react to a 95MPH fastball - the hitter assumes/sees fastball and it’s a slider 8” off the plate. That’s why guys hit .250 instead of .400, it ain’t easy.
  18. JD-TWINS
    Agreed - an MLB adage that’s over 100 years old……..Clint Eastwood & Amy Adams made a movie about a LH stud prospect never learning to hit a curveball & how he was “over projected” in the draft. Not earth shattering stuff……….good health & keep working is the only productive path forward. Fingers crossed!
  19. JD-TWINS
    Re Projections & Rankings: Watched MLB feature last night on Top 10 pitchers for ‘24……….based on similar analytics to ZIPS, I would assume. 1 computer generated list and 5 other “expert’s” lists ……Brian Kinney - Ron Darling - other contributors. Gray was in the Top 10 on 3 of the 6 lists… López was in the Top 10 on 2 of the 6 lists. I’m Old School & have no idea how to interpret what they referred to as XWOBA……..they showed the results for this stat for 2023 and Kinney repeatedly said that Pablo Lopez had the best XWOBA in baseball at .269 - whatever that number means. He was impressed! It seems we have an ACE without a doubt.
  20. JD-TWINS
    Can’t imagine this will be a reality - hope Miranda bounces back here or somewhere. I don’t think we’ve seen Kirilloff’s best yet by any means.
  21. JD-TWINS
    Can’t imagine this will be a reality - hope Miranda bounces back here or somewhere. I don’t think we’ve seen Kirilloff’s best yet by any means.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Buxton played about 80 games & zero on defense. Tyler Mahle went down for the season in April. I realize you’re pointing to offense but these two issues certainly had a pretty big affect on season Wins outcome.
  23. JD-TWINS
    It’s not a talent issue……Byron Buxton could probably play 1B as well. Julien is a defensive statue and played part of a game at 1B. Again, if they commit to play Polanco at first as an alternative to Kirilloff, I see some value there but I don’t hear anyone suggesting that will happen. If he could play 1B he might be the starter 130 games, again, nobody is predicting Polanco at 1B. Farmer can catch too. it their not going into the season as him as the 2nd catcher. It’s not Legion Ball - the guys have to be very good at a position to play it for more than a handful of innings once in a while in the Show.
  24. JD-TWINS
    Never seen Polanco there……Farmer maybe twice?? They both seem to be a stretch as the “other guy at first” as Kirilloff will max out at 130-135 games if the Team is very fortunate. Haven’t seen anyone here or any writers suggesting either of these guys regularly at 1B. Emergency availability, sure. Other than that - a real stretch coming out of Spring Training. Your opinion - I get it…..,,,,doesn’t seem very likely. Versus left handed pitcher Farmer is at 2B 95% of the time.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Siting Arraez v. Polanco stats are interesting…….the difference & my recurring point in this debate about Polanco’s value is that Arraez played 90% of games & Polanco played 55% of games over the past 2 seasons. Stats don’t translate from the IL. That’s my arguement - period. Can’t afford another Buxtonlike guy on the roster.
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