JD-TWINS

His salary has little impact on the team if he hits at all. This year he had a 98 OPS+, just barely under average with 17 doubles & 17 HR in 86 games. I gotta disagree on the notion that he can’t DH …… he can’t hit if he’s hurt, period. I keep noting that his tendency is to get hurt as a high end, fragile athlete. No reason to dream about some extra healthy season v. when he was 23 - 24 - 25 - 26!! He’s not averaged 1/2 a season per season over 8 years. That said, if he plays CF for 40 games I’d be tickled. He then DH’s 80 games, as a healthy hitter, much better results. If he can play those games that’s ALL travel days off PLUS one day off per week to keep him fresh. 75% of the games in the line-up is 35 games better than ‘23, but a healthy hitter is assumed. Buxton as a .235 BA guy accidentally hits 28 HR & has 25 doubles…….a very productive guy who’s ready to go when the playoffs begin. 120 games at the plate, a more realistic bar, in my opinion.

I understand the skepticism with Kirilloff’s availability or lack of…… he did have a .793 OPS & hit .270…….hardly anything we want to undervalue at 1B. He played 88 games and was probably healthy in 65 of those…… Gotta bet on his talent over a longer season. Why would Tampa trade a guy at $3.2M that hit 31HR & had a .840 OPS? I don’t care if he can’t play defense - I’d DH him if I were them. Doesn’t make sense!! That said, he’s only a couple years older than Lee & he’s “done it” in the Show……lots of value in that!! Insurance & RH alternative to Kirilloff. Relying on Miranda v. Parades to save $2.5M over the season is crazy. His cost is same as Solano would be. Paredes is available at 3B - 1B - DH with real pop - 31HR in 500 AB’s. Worth considering IF we think there’s an ability for Lewis to play LF. If that’s an option then it’s like trading for our OF need at the highest offensive level. Also, if we keep Farmer, it allows Wallner to go to RF & ability to move both Kepler & Polanco for $$ flexibility. Lee & Lewis are also depth at 3B and lesser need at 2B. I’d seriously consider this to save $$ for pitching and adds RH power, along with youth, to the line-up. Don’t believe they trade him - keep Lee & offer other players prospects (Rodriguez/Festa/etc.)

To me, since prospects carry a “perceived value forward”, a guy like Rodriguez is very intriguing to other clubs. I think, with Lee coming in ‘24 & possibly displacing Lewis into an OF option along with Martin as specifically a CF option at some point in ‘24 …….Rodriguez spends the year in St. Paul. Jenkins is almost a certainty in ‘26 at some point in CF - right? With Martin/Castro/Buxton, even Gordon in ‘24…….through ‘25, were good in CF. Rodriguez is available with a whole bunch of upside for the acquiring team…….that’s needed to get a return the Twins want! Julien’s limited defense & principally, the DH logjam caused by Buxton, makes him top end #2 candidate to potentially get moved. Don't like sending offensive talent out of the organization but after seeing the results from the Arraez trade I have to defer to the FO for good judgement.

TWINS were 15-19 in Gray’s starts. He won a playoff game & got out of a two out jam picking a guy off 2B - other playoff outing was subpar to say the least. He’s got great stuff - his ability to get past the 6th inning is a challenge. I think we can replace his innings & Maeda’s (284 total) with a mid $$ FA (Lugo) along with Varland & Paddack. I understand not wanting to overstate things…..sounding too rah rah, but there aren’t 6-7 better pitchers in the game (based on ‘23 performances) than Lopez. He tied with Snell for 3rd place in baseball for strikeouts and he was 23rd in ERA .06 runs per 9 from 18th, in ERA. His two playoff starts were stellar! He needs to back it up this year - if he has similar stats he is truly an ACE. If one blends his ERA & K’s, he has to be a Top Ten starter. Miley signed for $8.5M - Maeda for $12M - Lugo has been projected to be wanting $12.5 - $13M…….his ERA was better than Lopez at 3.53….,a good value & affordable by just moving on from Polanco. Former reliever, so not overworked for innings at 34. Trade for somebody feasible to obtain - a reliever to clear up any confusion with Varland potentially being in the Pen. I get really aggressive with trade pieces with the Brewers, for Devin Williams! He’s a set-up guy or closer - an All-Star - under control for 2 years - $6.25M & affordable.

TEAM was 15-19 in Gray’s starts. I get he had an outstanding ERA - good for him. Maeda & Gray were 14-16 between them. 104 innings & 184 innings respectively. Varland - Paddack - & FA “ X ” (Lugo) can combine for 325 innings. A .500 record or better is pretty feasible. Again, I trade Rodriguez - Gordon - Festa & Polanco (to then trade for prospects) to Milwaukee for Devin Williams - another 55 innings. He’s under control for 2 years and affordable at $6.25M this year. Williams & a reasonable FA starter - TWINS would be golden!

Buxton at DH for 125 games is fine with me if he’s healthy enough to hit & able to run at 85% of his previous self. If he hits .235 his power (XBH) will be fine with a probability of a minimum 25 HR & 25 doubles…….fine production for 75% of the games! He had 17 HR & 17 doubles in ‘23 & played in 84 games & hit .207………25 of each this year is pretty feasible. CC really seemed himself or better in the playoffs so I have to believe he can get back to his norm of 140 games at .275BA with a little pop. Lewis is a star if he can stay on the field. Jeffers - Julien - Wallner - Kepler - Farmer - Castro - Lee - Martin - Kirilloff - Vazquez should be enough to support the “core” from July - October! Sign a FA pitcher like Lugo for an affordable $13M and with him - Varland - Paddack the Staff should be fine.

We were 14-5 against the ALCS & NLCS teams in regular season.

Agreed with most posts on some serious skepticism here on Buxton ………I would hope 50 games in CF and 75 games at DH is potentially a reality……..pushing more than this seems it would bring more risk than needed to have him ready for playoffs. Per your comments, they need to keep his legs under him to get most benefit in the batter’s box. 50 games in CF is 2 games per week, generally…….75 games at DH is another 3 games of AB’s per week. A day of rest, plus travel days off every week. Martin seems real as an option after a couple months & is not any more “iffy” than Harrison Bader or others, as you state. Some combination of Castro/Buxton/Martin would be a plus for the organization. Best $$ move. If he can just hit .235, his power and XBH will come along for the ride!

Agreed - trying to choose the players to trade away is nearly impossible since there is no window into the minds of other GM’s. My only pushback or alternative is justifying moving Rodriguez & why. With Martin (CF) coming, more than likely, at some point in ‘24 & Jenkins (CF) coming in all probability at some point in ‘26 & displacing whoever is there ………..to me, Rodriguez (CF) seems to be the biggest carrot we can afford to live without. An observation/opinion. Personally, I really believe we are at a level to challenge for the AL pennant……..most here seem to be skeptical & pessimistic about the club. Going all out to set up our Pen & having it be a real strength, to me, is worthwhile. Many more ways to accomplish things but, to me, Williams is a clear path to a bunch of success ……….helps as well, with pushing Varland back to starter depth, with clarity.

Mostly, really solid comments here. The Revenue per team & associated payroll is very interesting. TWINS spend twice the % of Baltimore - Pittsburgh - Cleveland…….they are truly CHEAP organizations! Anyway, the only really bad contract at this point is Buxton’s, since he’s not been playing and there’s some doubt that he will going forward. Dobnack is “a rounding error” as stated above, CC will be back to contributing status, Vazquez is the risk for signing an aging vet - he’s not far from average & a plus defensively. Nothing here to stop us from having an ability to spend another $30M if we trade away Polanco’s $10.5M. That would get us to solid - competitive club!

What a difference a year makes! No Jorge Lopez & no Emilio Pagan (I know he helped us in ‘23) to worry about - FO provided relief for us. My solution is more of a big move…….post it here every other day but get no comments one way or the other. Trade Rodriguez - Festa - Sands - Gordon & Polanco to Milwaukee, with the assumption they then trade Polanco for prospects, for Devin Williams. All-Star closer & previously a set-up man. Still young & 2 years of control! $6.25M in ‘23. Thielbar - Funderburk - Balazovic - Alcala (Canterino - Winder as needed) Jax - Stewart Williams Duran Best bullpen in the game!! Playoffs come & Varland moves into the 5th-6th inning guy and we’re dominant!

Kuechel isn’t the answer - Mahle is out for the year - not sure who Dobson is? Urias is out of baseball & the next Trevor Bauer - headed to court! Need to elevate our expectations from this group. Pretty sure they were 15-19 in Gray’s starts (good point) & when considering a replacement, this needs to be taken into consideration! We don’t need a #1 or #2 to get through the 162 grind - need another reasonable option. If things are looking good we can potentially trade for a top shelf guy at the deadline. I do think Lopez every 5th day in the playoffs, with travel days mixed in, is a weapon! Paddack/Ober/Varland in some order as a bullpen type game could be very effective! Ryan as our #2 starter is stretching but he could reach that status. I want to TRADE for Devin Williams, Milwaukee’s All-Star closer & former set-up guy. $6.25M salary is very doable and he’s got 2 years left. Our Pen would be elite!! Sign Lugo for 2 years at $13M/year ……3.53 ERA in ‘23………..or maybe Wade Miley to eat up 125 innings in spot starts through the year to compliment Varland/Ober……similar mid 3’s ERA over last 3 years!! Trade Polanco and according to information here our payroll is at $80M…….sign Lugo $13M - pay Williams $6.25M - sign Adam Duvall $8M - Donovan Solano as the RH first baseman & PH $3.25M……..that’s a 1B - CF/LF - Reliever - Starter all for total payroll of $111M - that’s a 28% reduction from last year’s payroll of $154M.

Am certainly not trying to promote Steer as better than either Lewis or Julien at the plate……he’s far superior to Julien playing 3-4 positions though. I think most observers believe it’s more difficult to have good numbers over the 580 AB’s than 250 or 350 as is the case for the Twin’s rookies.

Sure, I agree, they were just lowering expectations so they can justify a lack of activity. W/o announcing they look pretty foolish not making any moves. A 15% reduction in payroll would be pretty steep and that takes us down to $132M total. If we move Polanco we’re presently at a level of $114M……….this leaves room for a FA starter in the $13M range. Lugo seems lowest risk - best value to me. For about the 10th time in last month, I gotta suggest trading with Milwaukee for Devin Williams. Their set-up guy could close for them & they want controllable prospects & salary reduction. Their rookie 2B was not great last year…….let them try Gordon there and in LF as needed. Gordon - Rodriguez - Festa for Williams & our Pen is elite for next 2 years. Varland focuses on being depth guy for rotation.

Agreed - If Gilbert has 3 years or more of control then you have to do a deal - he’s too good to pass on. Just don’t see that as real though.

I live in Cincinnati & McClean/Steer/DeLaCruz all defer to CES as the best hitter of the group………he would fill in just as you say 1B/3B/DH……mostly 1B. Steer would play LF & some 2B & 3B if needed. He had a really consistent season! They’re gone - gotta move on and hope for good things from Lee & Martin.

My impression is Twins are at $113M if they trade Polanco & keep all the arbitration guys. Offensively they are reasonable as is, with Lee & Martin coming by July…..,,at least one of them. Pitching is reasonable with Varland as 5th starter but no depth. Lost Pagan, Maeda, & Gray. To get better & stay in budget……..sign Lugo as FA ($13M) …….trade for Ace Reliever Devin Williams to use in 8th inning or 9th as needed for next 2 years ($6.25M) ……that’s $132M. To change up the look, while iron is hot, trade Kepler & reduce to $122M & then sign Taylor ($6M) or Duvall ($7.5m) for depth in OF.

I don’t think moving Lewis is optimal but we need to fit hitters into the line-up. He has injury concerns and is physically big enough to play 1B. Don’t see Lee moving there & Julien has his hands full at any position ……would like him to elevate in one spot, 2B. Open to anything that gets maximum offensive threats into a game. Lewis could play LF with Kirilloff at 1B. I too like Varland in the Pen but honestly think organization committed last August when moving him to Pen, to give him an opportunity to be a starter in ‘24. I get that he’s an employee & needs to play for betterment of the Team but it may be sticky. As we all know, 3 runs in 6 innings is a quality start & I think we can get that or better routinely from a few of the FA guys, Lugo - Wacha - Miley & even Varland……..that’s an ERA of 4.50 maybe down to 4.00. This is a guy that allows for wins v. any of the other Team’s starters, #1-#5. IMO…….Paddack - Lopez - Ryan are reasonable trio of playoff starters and if Ober improves at all he’s right there. Sure, George Kirby would be great!!! Seth Lugo is there waiting to be signed - veteran with low career innings - 3.53 ERA last year…..$13M. I trade Polanco & his salary for whatever prospects. Sign Lugo for 2 years at $13M/yr. I trade a package (Polanco’s prospect gain plus Gordon for 2B & Rodriguez & Festa - gotta be enough!) to Milwaukee for Devin Williams to solidify Pen at a level of excellence for next 2 years - $6.25M/year salary. Trade Polanco’s $10.5M away and take on $19.25M in 2 pitchers……….very affordable - plausible!

I don’t understand the desperation for pitching. I agree with trying to supplement the current staff but the Twins were 15-19 in Sonny Gray’s starts in ‘23…….it doesn’t matter how high quality of performance he had in games they didn’t win ……..an odd thinking but realistic. Obviously, the better the pitcher throws the better chance for a win! However, we have 3 guys that project, maybe 4 if Ryan quits giving up so many HR, to have ERA under 4.00. Do we think that there is no way Louie Varland can go .500 as our 5th starter? We do need depth! Gray pitched well in one playoff game (with a pick-off at 2B to get out of a jam) & not very good at all in another. The other issue I don’t understand is our willingness to only trade for pitching but an affinity to go out & sign a 1B or OF via FA. There are guys out there that can be signed for a year or two at $11 -$14M per year for one or two years. Not too expensive! Keep Lee - play him at 3B - move Lewis to LF or 1B where he can hit & stay healthy. Julien/Farmer platoon at 2B & trade Polanco to afford pitching. If Wallner’s hitting we could move Kepler in July & shift Lewis to LF. Buxton doesn’t allow Twins to have DH options. Pitching is certainly a must but we can’t afford to trade 1st round picks (bats) that are evolving and have a reasonable ceiling! Other ways to get arms via trade, if desired, w/o giving up Lee……….Rodriguez - Festa - Miranda - Gordon - Larnach - Polanco ……….younger prospects, etc. Seems with Martin coming & capable in CF & Jenkins destined there in 2-3 years, Rodriguez could be our most viable carrot in a trade.

1) If Lee isn’t on the 26 man April 1 he’s not ready - no mystery. July is best timing. 2) Keller being available is a thin prospect - why not keep him for another year with 2 yrs of control left for Pittsburgh? 3) Farmer is defensively superior to any options we have fielding ground balls other than CC……..he should be our depth guy, starting at 2B v. LH pitching and spelling Lewis & CC……..80-100 starts! 4) Polanco is too expensive for his probable lack of availability……need to move him with prospect or two for best return……….I’d take a big swing at Devin Williams with Milwaukee - it sets up our Pen for next 2 years. They want controllable pieces - they need 2B help - they want less salary. Polanco, for them to turn and trade for more prospects to whoever they like, Gordon as potential inexpensive upside at 2B, Rodriguez & Festa. 5) No Hoskins - too many $$………..$6.25M to Williams & $13M to Seth Lugo — trade Polanco and the net change is $9M over todays number…….under $125M total. Our Pen is solid - our outfield is fine with Castro/Buxton/Martin in CF………maybe sign Taylor for $6M……better continuity and stability than Bader……..IF has Farmer for depth & Lee coming.

Henriquez was a surprise to me as well - I actually thought he might be ahead of Alcala at this point.

Agreed & maybe toss Larnach into the maybe traded group. I don’t see any others getting DFA’d either.

Agreed - we need to get control & valued talent for our top prospect types! No one year rentals. With Jenkins coming in ‘26, it appears at some point that year, and with Rodriguez coming in ‘25 and Martin probably available (50/50) in ‘24, I move Rodriguez - CF with power. Rodriguez - Festa - Gordon - Kepler or Polanco (based on need) is a nice package for many teams………..I’ve beat this to death, I trade with Milwaukee to help them gain players with control (Festa - Rodriguez) for their rebuild & give them Gordon for some potential upside at 2B & maybe one of Polanco or Kepler? Get Devin Williams from their Pen for 2 years minimum…..$6.25M salary add. Our Pen becomes elite!! Varland is free to start - depth. Then sign FA Lugo or similar for $12-$13M.

I was a keep Max & trade Jorge proponent. Have been swayed within TD to now move both. Depending upon what they think of Martin & Lee’s progress/capabilities will dictate how far they will/can go with moving veterans. Lee (by July)at 3B & Lewis to LF & Wallner to right is a possibility……..Lee at 3B & Lewis to 1B with Kirilloff to the OF is another. Move Polanco & Kepler if we can pair either with a Festa - Winder - Headrick - Rodriguez for an arm. Saves $21.5M to use on pitching and potentially a RH bat for OF, even Taylor. Keep Farmer at less $ and better defensive flexibility & skills at this point than Polanco at all 3 spots. Remaining Veteran core of CC - Buxton - Vázquez - Farmer - maybe Taylor for continuity in clubhouse. Payroll would be down to around $104M if we keep all arbitration guys & trade Jorge & Max. Taylor (or guy of choice, Duvall?) Wallner - Castro - Larnach - Gordon with Martin coming as the outfield. Balance of $$ up to mid $130’s on pitching.

I’ve been very pro keeping Kepler & all for trading Polanco. Polanco isn’t durable enough to value highly anymore. He needs to be moved, with our numerous other options at 2B & 3B. Kepler is part of a less deep outfield with Buxton’s status being seriously in doubt. Kepler is at a high value after the last 3.5 months on the grass. However, after considering that we can probably get Duvall as a bat v. LH pitching & some pinch hitting & OF depth for not much more than $8-$10M it may be worth a change. We could even re-sign Michael A. Taylor for a depth piece instead of Duvall. We trade both Polanco & Kepler & even with all the arbitration signings, we have payroll down to $103M……..we also gain some level of assets - a reasonable pitcher possibly by coupling a couple prospects and maybe Winder/Headrick with either Polanco or Kepler. Wallner in RF - Castro/Gordon in CF - Larnach in LF v. RH pitching is reasonable. Duvall (or like, even Taylor) can play against LH pitching with Castro & either Wallner or Larnach. Duvall ($9M) - Gordon - Larnach - Castro - Taylor ($6M) - Wallner Lewis - CC - Julien - Kirilloff - Farmer (Castro & Gordon for additional depth)…….Farmer is depth at 1B as well Vazquez - Jeffers Example V. LH pitching: Taylor CF - Duvall RF - Castro LF - Lewis 3B - CC SS - Farmer 2B - Kirilloff 1B - Buxton DH - Jeffers C (substituting Duvall for Solano in ‘23 because he plays OF) Martin is an option instead of Taylor/Duvall. Lee is coming so somebody gets traded at deadline or earlier in July.