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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    Definitely a difference in the two Divisions! Cleveland was competitive across the A.L. for a good portion of 25 years. Hargrove managed teams across to Tito’s clubs. Central is weaker as a whole but the Royals won the Series 10 years ago. The White Sox should be a competitive franchise - it’s not the Twins fault nor MLB’s that they are poorly run. Realignment just pushes the poor $$ or poor managed franchises around. The “weak” Twins were 14-5 against Houston, Texas, Philadelphia, & Arizona in ‘23 regular season. These were the last 4 standing………,and somehow they squeaked by the A.L. East power Blue Jays with a 2-0 record in the playoffs. A big part of the Jay’s recent issues is that Biggio isn’t a star hitter, Chapman’s production was a roller coaster, and Vlad Jr. didn’t push through lately to more than good. Also, specifically v. the Twins, Gausmann has not been very effective…….they game planned well against him in ‘23. The reduced Division play is a reasonable approach to leveling things! I like playing the Royals less and the Reds or Mets or Marlins or Dodgers more - more interesting!! IMO, if the Rays can be competitive in that Division annually for a pretty good stretch of time, it’s up to each organization to figure it out and deal with whoever is on your schedule………….nobody in the Central is sad for Jerry Reinsdorf in the Chicago market, gotta figure it out as an organization.
  2. JD-TWINS
    Agree on some mild improvement from right side as adequate to play every day. Guys now only play 140 games on the high end, even young guys. If he sits/rests v. LH pitching …..that’s 20 of the 40 games he would bat RH. Can’t really think of too many really effective switch hitters in the last 50 years? Maybe 5? My point, as yours, expectations/hope for excellence from both sides probably need to be tempered.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Buxton - $15M…..Lopez - $21M…..Correa - $35M …….Vazquez - $10M are the guaranteed $$ I guess? Paddack at what $$, maybe $6M ???…………$87M Ober - Ryan - Varland all at about $800K, or $2.4M. With arbitration guys included (less Thielbar) the Pen will cost about (8 guys) $12M Wallner - Julien - Lewis - Lee - Martin - Larnach - Miranda all on minimums, ($800K) so $5.6M total. Kirilloff - Jeffers - Castro all arbitration guys totaling $9M. That’s 25 guys totaling $117M Rotation check - Pen check - Catchers check - Platoon at IB check ……5 infield guys plus Martin & Castro flexing both OF & IF - 3 OF check. Room for, in need of, an OF to fill out the 26-man…….I’d stick with internal options & youth. Another $800K. That’s a conservative total if $118M - seem reasonable? Gotta sign a pitcher…..seems so!!! Depending upon success in ‘24, I guess the plan for excess $$$ above $118M could be spent on extending some of the guys they have in house & continue to build internally? Thielbar, Farmer, Santana, Kepler total roughly $25M & am assuming they are all gone - Lopez gets a $13M raise…….,back to an approximate $118M total again for ‘25.
  4. JD-TWINS
    Unless somebody gets hurt seriously underperforms, he won’t be back until July or August at best. There’s nowhere for him to play at this point. The injury seems pretty mild. I still think he’ll rest Correa and Lewis later in the summer & DH some……….he doesn’t help with the platoon at 2B so Farmer keeps him off the 26-man potentially ……… hopefully, they may “help” another team by trading Farmer and prospects for an arm by the deadline?
  5. JD-TWINS
    I think the concerns about Santana are not very serious, in that Kirilloff will start 80 games plus at 1B v. RH pitching. I do think Santana will not miss a start v. LH pitching and he’ll pinch hit often v. LH pitching and would probably center the game at 1B for later inning defense…..,,,he doesn’t hit RH pitching very well but he doesn’t K a lot and has a bunch of experience. I think he’ll be a .650 OPS guy from left side - not good, but OK in short bursts for defense from the 6th on if he pinch hits. I see him as a plus defender that was brought in as insurance, like Taylor was last year. They’ll use him if needed but Kirilloff will still have opportunities at 1B.
  6. JD-TWINS
    Okert & Funderburk are the only lefties. Thielbar may be back in the mix to be considered in 5-6 weeks. Duran is essential for good fortune in the Playoffs. Otherwise, I think the roster here works into the playoffs…..,,utilizing Pen guys and either Larnach or Martin as needed through August. Then they’ll look at a couple more guys in September.
  7. JD-TWINS
    Everyone performing poorly is not likely - everyone getting hurt that’s been hurt isn’t likely. Will guys have bad outings and miss some time, certainly. There are still 11-12 options that have reasonable ability on the Pen depth chart, regardless of their Spring results in ‘24. Do we think Buxton & Jeffers are going to have over 1,000 OPS+ because they do now in Spring Training? Your point, anything is possible.
  8. JD-TWINS
    ‘23 the Twins were #1 in starter innings into mid-August. Ended at #2 or #3 I believe. Not an issue if the starters pitch up to a competent level.
  9. JD-TWINS
    Not sure it needs to happen that soon but a reasonable plan to have a guy working regularly in late May and into June for some use in mid-late summer. Not sure if Kuechel is upset about his post season treatment (a competitor just like all Pros) but he seems to be the best option with his recent connection with the Club.
  10. JD-TWINS
    I know the organization doesn’t want to spend more but Clevinger threw 131 innings in ‘23 and managed to compile a 9-9 record for the brutal White Sox. He threw 2 complete games, so there is some stamina. His ERA was 3.77 and his career ERA is 3.45. Ober in ‘23 was 8-6 with a 3.43 ERA in 144 innings. Ryan in ‘23 was 11-10 with a 4.51 ERA in 161 innings. Lopez in ‘23 was 11-8 with a 3.66 ERA in 194 innings. Odorizzi didn’t pitch in MLB in ‘23 ……didn’t pitch in ‘20……...he threw 104 & 106 innings in ‘21 & ‘22 with ERA’s of 4.2 & 4.4…….he’s a crap shoot at best and not someone to rely upon. At his best, he’s a 12 start depth guy IMO……does not give any feeling of value at this point in his career.
  11. JD-TWINS
    He’s continually improving with time. IMO, he’ll have 2-3 starts per month of 3 runs or less through 5-6 innings & then he’ll give up 5 in 3 2/3. He’ll be more volatile than most established guys so his ERA may not reflect his value in most of the games. He’s a pretty good 5th option for any club. SWR & Festa being the depth pieces as needed are the bigger question marks - feel good about them but just a feeling - gotta see it work.
  12. JD-TWINS
    He could DH 66 games I guess?
  13. JD-TWINS
    Agreed! The Batting averages will have us breaking Team records - I think the Twin’s marketing department were spitballing and sent their ideas to CBS & then they got printed. The starters shown would be 53-33…..are we a lock for World Series?
  14. JD-TWINS
    Nobody is comparing rotations! …..you said if we are relying on “hope” with our rotation it’s bad if we’re trying to win a World Series. My point is 3 of the top 4-5 teams in the discussion for a Championship are based on hope with their staffs. How nervous are the Dodger’s fans over Walker Buehler? deGrom is nearly hurt 70% of the past 6 years - Eovaldi has had arm problems for years (healthy in ‘23) - Scherzer has a new injury every 2-3 months - that’s my point. I don’t doubt their effectiveness but I seriously doubt their availability and I guarantee their FO & fan base are “hoping” they are healthy. The Orioles (101 wins in ‘23 with more experience & Corbin Burnes) dropped because the Yankees got their act together but more significantly, 2 of their top 4 starters are hurt …….one maybe indefinitely…… they too are hoping for health! In ‘23 Maeda threw 106 innings & had a 4.2 ERA ……….. he was maybe mediocre to poor in the Playoffs…….he’s 35. I do not see why anyone would have more confidence in him than in Paddack? Both off rebuilt arms ……in small look, Paddack definitely looked better at the end of ‘23. Tigers are hoping Maeda doesn’t break down! IMO, Polanco got them Topa & the #76 prospect OF. Nobody in their right mind, after past 2 seasons, could have any reasonable amount of confidence in DeSclafani performing well or for sure.
  15. JD-TWINS
    If I was the Twin’s pitching coach or if I were their FO or if I were their owner & I read TD routinely, I’d lay into the commenters here. This isn’t fantasy baseball!! The Twins had the second best Rotation looking at certain metrics in ‘23. ……..noted in today’s article here they were #2 & predicted to be #6 this year, out of the 30 clubs. It’s been widely discussed that the Pen is expected to be #2 in baseball this year. #6 rotation on paper & #2 Pen on paper…….why are people constantly complaining about how bad things look and what a poor job the organization is doing - seriously??? There’s ten playoff teams and we have a “blended” #4/5 staff - accurate? But, “…..,We may get caught by the Tigers….,,,we can’t win a second game in the playoffs due to weak pitching…..”, blah, blah, blah - please give the organization and the players some credit!!
  16. JD-TWINS
    You don’t think the defending Champion Rangers are hoping that Eovaldi holds up…….Dunning doesn’t suck……Scherzer is not over the hill and bounces back at some point in early season……..& deGrom isn’t on the IL by September 1, after starting 6 games???? How much HOPING are the Dodgers doing with their $324M man getting rocked essentially every time he steps on the mound…….could be a long 12 years! He gave up 5 ER in 1 inning of work v. the Padres in his MLB debut….,,oh, btw, Dodger’s big acquisition from the Rays got lit up in his debut as well. The Orioles are praying daily that their two rotation guys come back sooner than later. On & on…….lots of organizations with World Series aspirations with their fingers crossed.
  17. JD-TWINS
    I’ve never heard the organization state that Margot was acquired to back up Buxton in CF. IMO, they went out and got a guy to platoon with Wallner - a guy with experience and good splits v. LH pitching. They also got a guy who “could” play CF if needed. I think Castro is the combination guy with Buxton to fill CF in ‘24. His value in the line-up is too high to not have a semi-regular position. There will not be as many opportunities in the infield this year assuming Lewis’ knees - Correa’s feet - Farmer’s cheekbone all stay intact. I think Castro starts 75-80 games in CF v. RH pitching. If he gets similar AB’s in ‘24, I’d take the 32 XBH - 33 steals - 106OPS+ every year, ongoing. Defensive flexibility and decent glove ability.
  18. JD-TWINS
    A well as results specifically from 2023!
  19. JD-TWINS
    Might win 94 just as easily! After they had played the weak Division opponents in ‘23 the Twins were 14-5 v. Texas - Houston - Philly - Arizona last year…….the last 4 teams standing. If Gray pitches up to his reputation v. Houston the season may have had a better outcome. Obviously, every team is hoping for good health and for good fortune for their player’s performances. All part of Fandom……..same thoughts/emotions with The Wild - T-Wolves - Vikings. The Twins will be fine and very competitive in the A.L. - sure hope so!
  20. JD-TWINS
    IMO, if Duran can get healthy in 6-8 weeks we’ll be fine. Thielbar has been mostly very effective since getting back into baseball. I think he’s probably done or certainly he’s backed up to a much lesser role for ‘24. Funderburk - Okert as the 2 LH pitchers in Pen seems almost a certainty at this point. Jackson - Topa - Alcala - Sands - Jax - Stewart…..this group of 8 should be fine for a month or two. Buxton is a flip of the coin……I do think Castro slots into CF as the regular v. RH pitching…………daily, if Buxton cannot play. Do not expect any help from DeSclafani. Paddack’s repaired elbow should still be fresh for ‘24. If he stays at 125 innings or less over 5.5-6 months, he should hold up. Ryan had a decent ERA and won 13 games in ‘22. He won 11 games and was cruising in ‘23 until he hurt his leg and didn’t let the Team know. Stupid maybe, but I don’t think he’s hit the peak of his promise at this point. Ober threw 167 innings last year with his starts in St. Paul added to his 144 innings on Big Club. I have confidence we should expect 160 innings out of him……..what he says about his innings goals for the season (200) are really not relevant as he has little to no say in the matter.
  21. JD-TWINS
    I think that sounds nice - they certainly have pieces to trade from ST. PAUl …….just don’t think it’s that easy to go get a pitcher at the Deadline. Don’t expect a deal to be made with the competition there will be from other clubs in the mix at that point. We just differ on this one.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Dobnack & Raya & Canterino & Ohl are ALL really long shots. Pretty sure canterino is currently hurt? The top 5 guys should be fine until June from a workload standpoint. Festa & SWR should be ready to start helping, one at a time, by June 1. Might want to give Dallas a call for continuity on an MiLB deal for $2M…….maybe some incentives if he meets some minimal criteria. I get he’s not a big “stuff guy” but he’s smart and a very different look for most opponents. He may be worth 8-10 starts mid-summer into September. Not really sure what HE thinks about how he was treated last year? Surprised I’ve heard absolutely nothing about his activities this spring.
  23. JD-TWINS
    Jax - Stewart - Jackson - Okert - Sands - Alcala - Funderburk - Topa……….,a very solid group, just missing The Hammer in the 9th……fingers crossed for Duran to come back in 6-8 weeks ready to go!! Thielbar really seems to be breaking down. So, while I think he’ll come back and pitch, even some meaningful innings in ‘24, I think he’s nearly done and could be ineffective v. high end playoff teams. Not holding my breath for him to be a key piece of the Pen this year. I think Jackson has the biggest chance to be this year’s Joe Smith. His age doesn’t bother me but I’ve seen him pitch twice and his stuff just doesn’t seem to be all that effective. He has a decent track record recently so hoping for the best.
  24. JD-TWINS
    Unless Santana gets hurt - Miranda is just refining his offense in St. Paul this season. If Wallner can’t get it together soon - Larnach may get another chance by 4/15. Balszovic has a long way to go!
  25. JD-TWINS
    Padres have gotten their roster together over the past 8 weeks, 88 win team. D-Backs should be similar to better this year, so, 90 wins. Dodgers potentially 105 wins. Giants seem to be locked into a punishing Division. I do not see their offense being good enough. Starters can put some good innings in to keep them close in games!
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