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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    Seems like an out of shape Michael Pineda……if all that’s wrong with him is bad shoulder, the Jays would have done all they could to get him healthy! Gotta think there’s an attitude issue or a lack of motivation to be in shape…..why else would an organization take a youthful Cy Young candidate and treat him with little respect - has to be a two way street. If he can fit in as a personality, they’re going to give him more opportunities!
  2. JD-TWINS
    Let’s make Ely more comfortable! A couple 2023 ERA’s here to digest: Luzardo #18 - 3.58……..our P. López #23 - 3.66 ……..Seattle trade target L. Gilbert #25 - 3.73 Mike Clevinger - 131 innings - 3.77 ERA …..this should be the TWINS target for a 2 year deal!
  3. JD-TWINS
    I was hoping these 5 guys would get just Luzardo - he’s worth it for 3 seasons!
  4. JD-TWINS
    A big Montgomery proponent here!! As of today, I think Mike Clevinger may be a good value? He came off arm surgery re-hab in late ‘22 with San Diego & looked OK. In ‘23 he played on a poor White Sox club & went 9-9 in 131 innings with a 3.77 ERA. He’s got good stuff and is probably a low teens guy ($13M/year) that could supplement what we lost in rotation along with Paddack & Varland.
  5. JD-TWINS
    Ditto!
  6. JD-TWINS
    You played baseball? No stress difference on knee joints between SS & 2B. Throwing across your body on balls you are charging from 3B and throwing after you dive to the line to stop a ball behind 3B are tremendous strains on your knee joints. Have had my knee scoped twice and then ligament rebuild. Hip replacement as well. I get joint stress. The 2nd baseman is protected from contact on plays at 2nd base. Twins have already eluded to the fact that 3B is Lee’s probable fit. Lewis can play 2B or LF or even 1B as far as I’m concerned. Lee & Lewis need to be in the line-up together somehow.
  7. JD-TWINS
    #2 & #3 are intriguing. As usual, I would try to change something …….#2 to (keep Kepler - insert Vazquez + $6M cash considerations)………Miami gets veteran catcher help at a reduced cost of $7M/year for 2 years. Julien is a real bat for them! Rodriguez is everyday OF by ‘25 or sooner. #3 is reasonable, but keeping Vazquez as at least a 50% of the Twins innings caught for a couple more years is not optimal. Gotta do things to get better than good pitching though. .………………. As a wild edit……throw some of these trade assets, i.e. Rodríguez - maybe Festa - Gordon - Polanco (for them to flip) to the “reworking” Brewers for 2 years of Devin Williams control and our Pen is firmed up for 2 years w/o any guess work…….$6.25M/year. The balance of $$ in budget to spend on FA Mike Clevinger for depth guy at $12.5M/year for 2 years. He threw 131 innings and had a 3.77 ERA in ‘23. LUZARDO would be the preference & hope FO can make it happen.
  8. JD-TWINS
    Not sure other organizations think a guy that was top 5 OBP in the game in ‘23 (Julien) along with E. Rodríguez is not a satisfactory return? Toss in Gordon as a depth piece that’s cheap & an arm like Sands/Winder to eat some bullpen innings. They seem to be in a win soon mode & Jenkins is at least a ‘26 arrival on a fast track.
  9. JD-TWINS
    I like the premise for sure. To get it done I probably bump it by $10M by giving him $2M more per year over the first 5 years…….Boras & Co. like present value of money as well & they are certainly aware of Lewis’ health issues to date……I think, as his management, they would approve. He’s a real talent & getting him under control at known cost is very valuable for the Twins!
  10. JD-TWINS
    Don’t. Nobody says this can’t be ‘25 or more realistically, ‘26 line-up………….the premise was “what’s the ‘27 line-up look like?”
  11. JD-TWINS
    A big difference, that I realize was only an example, is Juan Soto had a broad market - he can play (arguably top 5 at 25 & under in the game) & he’s in the line-up most days. If Buxton plays well enough for a team to have interest, he’s inexpensive as a Twin & he stays. If he doesn’t play well there’s no market & he stays. Again, the Twins are on the hook with him for good or bad.
  12. JD-TWINS
    Burnes is a one year move & not very attractive. Sox won’t trade Cease to Division foe & it would be weird to send them anyone decent as well. Farmer is a keeper as you elude to above. Kepler & Polanco need to be hooked with a couple others from the organization to make any return Twins would get worthwhile. How about a guy with some risk (all have risk) that could be picked up as a FA for 2 years and maybe $11-$13M……..make the 2nd year his option. Mike Clevinger - 9W - 9L with a bad White Sox team in 2023 - 131 innings pitched and a 3.77 ERA……..between him & Paddack & Varland we should be able to cover the lost starters innings with effective arms!
  13. JD-TWINS
    Not sure about how to dive into the analytics but I do recall in September seeing Farmer was better than either Julien or Polanco at 2B in ‘23. I think he was a slight plus & Julien was neutral & Polanco was slightly subpar. I see the Sox reluctance because of his last couple years of a lack of durability! What would we get in return is my real question?
  14. JD-TWINS
    It’s been pretty widely discussed here that Lee’s tools translate at 3B better than Lewis. CC isn’t going anywhere as you state. Seems Lewis at 2B to replace an inferior defender makes sense. I don’t see any transition though until they get a longer look at Lee in St Paul & a longer look at Julien in the Show. Maybe late summer? Seems it’s either Lewis to 2B by start of ‘25 or he shifts to LF & Wallner goes to RF. I don’t think trying to trade Polanco as a stand alone asset is going to bring a great return but him, with Winder, and a good prospect from AAA level may do the trick. Club needs pitching & money to allow that to happen. Gotta move Jorge…………or trade Julien in his spot and get a lower cost arm in trade…….no sense in having these two guys on the roster together other than to hedge against Polanco’s fragile physical state & probable injury.
  15. JD-TWINS
    They’ll release him before he gets traded.
  16. JD-TWINS
    I don’t understand any level of reality in Buxton playing in CF 4 seasons from now? Most everyone doubts he’ll play CF in ‘24 let alone projecting he’ll be there in ‘27. Seemed Jenkins was drafted due to the speed-arm components of his probable 5 tools (I get he’s young & not completely developed) so I’m hoping he’s in CF out of Spring Training in ‘26. Not sure why we should think he won’t be there ultimately?
  17. JD-TWINS
    I like the Funderburk slant & his probable importance/role in the Pen. I live in Cincinnati so I’m always contrasting the successes & lack of for both clubs. Hope Bobby enjoys some more Twins success in ‘24!
  18. JD-TWINS
    He was hurt - didn’t even play at all in August/Septmber. The “he’s gotta play CF or no value…….” is bologna. We need his bat! Michael Taylor - Castro - Martin - Gordon can all catch fly balls and run stuff down in the gaps well enough for the Team to win. If he can play 30-40 games in CF I’ll be pleasantly surprised! The guy has averaged less than 70 games per season for 9 years!! If he doesn’t DH as his major role, he’s worthless.
  19. JD-TWINS
    I get the media plays up the home town stuff. Maybe real? With a number of good arms in Seattle and a REAL NEED for position player depth, signing a guy who is broken down quite a bit is not good spending. They are in the midst of paying Ray for being unavailable for 18 months. Doubt they have the stomach for it…………what’s a hometown contract” valued at by Snell?……$25M at the discount? Seems unlikely to me.
  20. JD-TWINS
    I agree Julien deserves a chance to get better over time at 2B. Having him play 2B & Polanco play 1B is two guys “working it out” during games and doesn’t seem to spell winning club. Praying for Buxton to play 150 games when his 9 year history is averaging less than 70 games per year is something from a dream. Polanco .235 BA in 108 games in ‘22 & .256 BA in ‘23 in 86 games…………..career BA of .270. He’s unavailable and regressing - acting like he’s more durable than Kirilloff isn’t reality. The only way Buxton approaches 125 games is if he DH’s 80 games.
  21. JD-TWINS
    What does that mean? IMO, a no-trade is to give the player the ability to control his future, potentially as part of a mild discount in his salary. Don’t understand your lack of seriousness that this clause as a deterrent in a potential trade? Who’s trading for a guy that’s averaged less than 70 games per season over a 9 year career?………& if he hits .240 or above & has 30 HR & similar total of doubles, he’ll never be considered as a trade piece by the Twins. Just don’t see him going anywhere other than a potential mutual release to FA & a % of his remaining salary paid. Maybe this works? Maybe deferred $$ from contract & he retires? Twins are on the hook is the bottom line.
  22. JD-TWINS
    It seemed to me that Chisholm to CF wasn’t well received & that he really wanted to be back in the infield - also, sounded like he excelled in CF after a couple months of growing pains.m, so who knows? Rodriguez can find a home somewhere in their OF as you state. I’d then move him and Julien and that’s it for Luzardo. If needed, Vazquez and less $$ to supplement his salary. Maybe we give them $5M total for the 2 remaining years. Losing Julien would be felt in our depth but between Lewis - Farmer - Martin - Lee we could cover 2B & 3B (Miranda at 3B some if he hits)……could even retain Polanco if necessary. If they’ll take on Polanco’s contract and we throw in $5M/year against Vazquez cost - OK. We keep Julien & still move Rodriguez & Winder…….this seems reasonable. I’m still targeting Luzardo if at all possible. FA signing of a pitcher seems like a big stretch! We move guys for Roger’s or Luzardo we’re in great shape. ………………… Another move is to find a home for Vazquez & assume it only saves Twins $5M/yr. Move Polanco for $10.5M. $121 current total as of today Payroll Total, less the two veteran trades and we’re at $105M…….sign the FA you were considering above - J. Montgomery for $26M for 5 years and the Payroll Total is $131M and a 15% reduction from 2023! Rotation is set - great depth for Infield intact - Bullpen is set - OF support is coming with Martin & Rodriguez evolving.
  23. JD-TWINS
    They don’t want to spend money in FLA. I don’t see Kepler as a reasonable piece due to his cost & potential to end up hitting .225 for them. I like Vazquez in Miami to fill a need & Twins pay for one of the 2 years - give them $10M in cash considerations………..they need a CF so either Martin or E. Rodriguez …………..Festa as well, as the last piece. Solution at catcher with Vazquez - Rodriguez is their CF of the future - maybe include Gordon to help add depth at 2B - SS & CF in short term - Festa to supplement the pitching. Seems that these 4 guys help fill holes they have and they are controllable pieces for their club. I’d trade Julien if needed but he doesn’t seem to fit their defensive needs. LUZARDO in return to the Twins. I don’t like moving Lee or Jenkins…..essentially anything else in Farm System is an option. Gordon hit .272 with 28 doubles in 405 AB’s in ‘22 when he last played with Arraez…….I would think there would be some mild respect there? Certainly, if they want Kepler or Polanco, we should be open to moving them as well.
  24. JD-TWINS
    So, I understand the fact that losing Castillo changes a rotation. However, all I’ve read for a year is that Seattle has a slew of good young arms, along with Castillo & Robby Ray. Why do they need to plug a hole from anywhere else other than internally? Why would they consider Blake Snell?? The FO can better pick guys Seattle would like and who we might part with……..I like Castillo a lot. Have been a proponent of signing J. Montgomery but if Castillo is available for 4 years at $21M - he’s a better value than Montgomery at $26M.
  25. JD-TWINS
    If Kirilloff is every dry guy, essentially, …….(RH starters nearly 80% of the time), he’ll get 500 AB’s. I’m pretty sure that no matter how much we hope, Buxton will only play 30-40 games in CF in ‘24 with 70-80 games at DH. Miranda may see 225-250 AB’s best case…….With either Farmer or Lee on the roster, they’ll be backing up Lewis & there’s less room for Miranda at the plate.
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