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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    Not a chance for those 2 guys! Luzardo is a top 20 pitcher going into ‘24. He’s the guy I coveted for Arraez last year (no complaints with Pablo!). Polanco - Larnach (float Kepler) - Festa - Winder or Sands - maybe another prospect of their choice? ……..any 26 man guys & Lee & Jenkins are staying put…….maybe add Vazquez + $3.5M/year? Add Larnach & his upside to a corner spot with Marlins along with Polanco at 2B……..Jazz in CF - Bell at 1B - Arraez as DH ….can rotate Bell, Arraez, & Polanco between those 3 spots. For Luzardo, if Marlins want to spend the $$, I would roll the dice & trade ………… Kepler/Polanco/Festa/Winder/………another prospect……..maybe E. Rodriguez would be more attractive for corner OF spot than Larnach or Kepler? Focus on Luzardo & do whatever is necessary, IMO.
  2. JD-TWINS
    Jorge Polanco had a WAR in ‘23 of 2.0……he only played 80 games. Stanton is cited as having a high “WAR of 3.70 just 3 years ago…….” we already have him for $10.5M on the roster. A guy with potential that’s hurt all the time…….Polanco. Oh, I almost forgot about Byron…………Stanton has to be the worst contract in Baseball! Comical thought though. Alcantara coming off a poor year & not available for ‘24 due to surgery & potentially not being the same when he comes back all sounds like he should be almost free…….not a real attraction to pay much for the ability to display a ‘22 Cy Young trophy. Steer was voted the Reds MVP in ‘23 - with McClean healthy & DeLaCruz & E. - Strand with some experience they are on their way to the Central title. I live in Cincinnati & they could/would trade Petty but they don’t have ANY every day player position holes to fill - Zero!
  3. JD-TWINS
    Off the rails here but how about a dominant Left Hander?😉
  4. JD-TWINS
    Depth & availability ……Polanco, 104 games in ‘22 & 80 games in ‘23. Career .270 hitter - hit .235 in ‘22 & .255 in ‘23. Less of a defender than Farmer at 2B & 3B. IMO, Farmer is the depth answer with some combination of Martin & Lee as the season progresses. Polanco, (not considered a bag of balls, but regressing) bundled with a couple other guys may get us an arm of consequence……again, to me, that is the depth that is needed.
  5. JD-TWINS
    All very possible…….probable on some level. Jeffers playing more may/will lead to fatigue & pitcher’s respecting him more will lead to more difficulty at the plate. Stewart was hard to believe in ‘23 & has set a very high bar. Kepler is just a flat out wildcard - am hoping that his previous year’s issues were between his ears and he’s corralled those issues?? Castro, I think, just got better and more comfortable at the plate. He’s relatively young & a very good athlete - hoping his offensive drop is slight. Regression or a drop in performance could happen to just about the entire roster for differing reasons…….trying to stay upbeat for ‘24.
  6. JD-TWINS
    Brewers or Marlins…….aim high! Brewers: Lost Woodruff to injury & FA…….traded Hauser……….going to trade Burnes by the deadline at the latest. They are rebuilding (even if they aren’t telling the fans) and want young controllable pieces that don’t cost anything. Along with this, Polanco helps keep them competitive for the fans sake over ‘24 & ‘25. Polanco - Larnach - Festa - Sands from Twins to attain Devin Williams. Larnach has OF upside & can DH at low cost……Festa provides long-term upside. Williams is an All-star under control for 2 years & he makes our Pen elite at a cost of $6.25M in ‘24. Marlins: They need offense and we can offer the same upside with Larnach…….steadying, consistent bat and versatile defender with Polanco………immediate relief plug-in with Sands ……….future upside arm with Festa. These guys for Luzardo. He’s got 3 years left and is electric with stuff. IF needed, we dig deeper on prospects with E. Rodríguez to allow them some flexibility with how they use Jazz. Moving Polanco for value is going to take a few other guys.
  7. JD-TWINS
    As another commenter stated … Miranda needs to hit his way back to the Show. Can’t roster him on 26 man & hope! Martin as a 1B option doesn’t add up……..have the option in hand v. seeking it when Miranda isn’t performing. 22% K rate and tons of experience and played 1B just fine in ‘23. Twins don’t need him to play 2-3 positions. Pinch hit - 1B - DH a little and we’re good.
  8. JD-TWINS
    Call someone that wants a cheap bat that can DH & play 3 other spots if needed……mix with another guy & make a trade.
  9. JD-TWINS
    I agree……to my knowledge, the best Twins Team other than the 3 World Series clubs. The Orioles were solid & deep everywhere. This team’s 98 wins without Carew for 100 plus games shows how good they were. Carew, when in the line-up for 51 games, hit .366 with an OPS+ over 150. If he’s available, Baltimore may have been on more of an even level?
  10. JD-TWINS
    Reasonable thought! Not sure why there isn’t a specific number shown here - speculation, understood, but at least some point of reference. My guess is $3.25M maximum. For that amount of money, it’s a worthwhile depth move. Twins don’t know for sure what Kirilloff’s timetable will be to perform at 100%. Everyone anticipates he’ll be fine - hope so. Twins don’t know for sure if/when Miranda will be able to hit at MLB level again. Everyone anticipates he’ll be OK with good health - hope so. With these two guys BOTH targeted for 1B & with mild question marks with each, the Twins could use a mix of performance - continuity - experience that Donny B. would provide. At that number, if Miranda is crushing it in Spring Training, it’s probable Twins can move Solano with somebody else to provide depth to another club that had experienced an injury in Spring Training. Worth a shot to ensure that the season isn’t kicked off short-handed.
  11. JD-TWINS
    Big chasm between MVP & productive……he’s averaged less than 70 games per year over 9 years…….granted, slightly higher w/o Covid year. Bottom line is he is a highly talented athlete that is relatively fragile - not that unusual. I’d like to shoot for 110-120 games. Bigger, #1 ask is to be healthy for October!! Start 30-40 games in OF (1 or 2 times per week) & DH 75 games & Pinch hit 5 games. That would be a VERY productive season for Buxton. That’s 75% of all games in ‘24 when his average has been under 50% his first 9 years. .230 BA would be ask #2. If he can do that he’ll stumble into 25 HR & 25 doubles & strike out less. He had 17 of each XBH in 80 starts in ‘23…….he wasn’t healthy in ‘23 either while hitting the 17 HR & 17 doubles. Honestly, don’t care if the plan is to steal ZERO bases to maintain best health. The “play hard til you drop” mentality/mantra makes no sense to me. We have plenty of options to catch fly balls in CF - we need the BAT PORTION of his $15M salary maintained through the year. He didn’t perform as a DH to his, or fan’s expectations in ‘23, because he was hurt most of the time ……..not because “he can’t hit as a DH”…,.,,that’s ridiculous!
  12. JD-TWINS
    Forgot about displacing Taylor’s K’s - that’s a welcome change even though we step back defensively a bit. I like Castro’s odds of being pretty good in CF given steady opportunity …….fast, good arm, very athletic overall & a real solution. Anyway, my thought was to kill two birds with a few stones in a trade. Hopefully, SOONER THAN LATER. Help the staff/Pen both for under $20M. Trade the stones for Devin Williams of the Brewers. They are going to step back and move Burnes at some point - Woodruff is gone. They are rebuilding with youth no matter how they portray the short-term to their fans. They always want to get cheap controllable pieces. We send them 3-4 guys for 2 years of Williams starting at $6.25M in ‘24. Any package we may give up for one year of Burnes is worth 2 years of Williams………then sign Clevinger to fix our rotation depth. $13.5M/yr. for two years with a player option for 2nd year, so if he is tremendous and wants to test the market he can. 131 innings & 3.77 ERA in ‘23. Rotation fixed - Pen is elite ………$ to afford both by trading Polanco.
  13. JD-TWINS
    One can disagree with certain players getting a slight advantage due to reputation/years of experience/etc. - it’s real and has been for 100 years (i.e. Maddux - Glavine - many hitters). Not right, but real. Bottom line is he was a rookie and after striking out looking a half dozen times, one needs to adjust - I realize he may have had an argument or was correct a few times. Walking back to the dugout shaking your head is not the answer. Gotta protect the plate with two strikes - one of oldest adages in Baseball.
  14. JD-TWINS
    Agreed, don’t see the value of adding France & frankly, doubt Seattle is trading him at an affordable $7.2M. Twins don’t save much in Salary either for what you & many would consider a lesser player than Polanco. That said Polanco is declining over a fairly long stretch……..might he bounce back, maybe? ’22 - .235 BA & 108 games ’23 - .256 BA & 86 games Career .270 BA ………..batting efficiency is dropping and his availability/reliability has certainly dropped significantly. He’s not at Buxton’s level of IL time but we can move him before it gets worse (can’t move Buxton) & we can re-coup $$ to spend on pitching. I think he’s probably moved to allow Julien a starting spot for 120 games……….Buxton will again clog the DH spot for 50% of the games.
  15. JD-TWINS
    Agree on the left side & right side defense. Hope CF works out. I think it is covered with existing, rostered options. K% will go down w/o Gallo & an improvement by Buxton ……..gotta say it bothers me to see Julien strike out looking as much as he does - no stats, but seems like about 1 of 4 are looking? Walking is a great tool but with 2 strikes one needs to protect the plate on some level - he comes off like he thinks he’s earned Ted Williams status. Steals are a nice add but we can’t manufacture speed out of a mostly set line-up. Seems it will fall to Lewis - Castro …..maybe Wallner & Kepler sprinkling some in here & there………Buxton’s ability to contribute will depend, as usual, upon his health.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Giolito is signed, good. I think Twins should offer Clevinger a two year deal with the same enticing 2nd year opt-out for the player! Player gets security of a 2 year deal at a slightly lower rate but can prove himself & re-negotiate with Twins or leave after year one. $13M/year. He threw 131 innings & went 9-9 for the lowly White Sox in ‘23 with a 3.77 ERA. Don’t know why nobody is talking about him? Pablo Lopez had a 3.66 ERA.
  17. JD-TWINS
    Agree that Twins should be a favorite for Division at this point. If CC hits .265 & has 20 HR’s & 30 doubles (all very likely) along with his defense, he’s a value because he has a presence that breeds winning with the young guys…….can’t pay much for intangibles (we all agree) but it seems to have value with this younger club. If Buxton hits .235 with 25 HR & 25 doubles & is healthy for October, he’s a real value. He had 17 HR & 17 doubles in 80 starts while playing hurt 50% of the time (86 total games) in ‘23. Need him healthy for 100 - 110 starts (30-40 in CF) and all is good. Last year Twin’s payroll was 17th in baseball at $154M……..leaving $104M to spend outside of CC & Buxton. Supposedly, in ‘24, the team’s payroll will be at a ceiling of $130M, a 15.5% reduction. That’s $80M to spend on the rest of the club outside the two expensive guys ……….Mahle - Maeda - Gallo - Gray - Taylor - Solano - Pagan…….these guys add up to $45M & are all gone. If we trade Polanco, we have the team, as it sits, plus $20-$25M to spend prior to Opening Day. Doesn’t seem to be that much of an issue IF they actually spend $130M.
  18. JD-TWINS
    Completely agree on Castro in CF……he also switch hits & has a great arm! No reason to expect some 30 point regression in his batting average as is speculated on here often. Many here describe him as being needed as a “super utility” guy as he seemed to be in ‘23. Changes after 4/1/23…….Lewis is healthy and solid at 3rd…….Julien was an idea & Polanco was hurt - now Polanco should be traded & Juilen should man 2B with Farmer as THE principal depth at all 3 glove spots in the infield………..Wallner was a potential guy at some point - now he’s the everyday LF……..Lee is coming mid-summer. We need Castro in the OUTFIELD & he’s capable to play CF daily. I see him starting 80 plus games there ……Buxton maybe 35-40 games there ………..Martin or maybe Gordon taking the other 45-50 starts. Just don’t see a problem outside of Castro getting hurt. If he starts 1/2 the games in CF we have problem solved and it still leaves plenty of games for Rocco to manipulate the line-up & use his speed and defensive flexibility as he sees fit.
  19. JD-TWINS
    Dwight Evans - Roberto Clemente - Reggie Smith - Tom Brunansky - Tony Oliva…….don’t recall any of these guys shifting to CF at age 30 either. Steak & Walleye & plugging a hole in CF with a near Gold Glove right fielder??? The Twins - Baldelli, love his defense in RF. Do they wish he could flex to CF in a pinch? Sure. They have 4 other options rostered now going into Spring Training. No reason to hate on a guy for wanting to continue to play a position he’s comfortable with and has had exceptional success playing. CC isn’t moving to 3B or 2B for Brooks Lee anytime soon.
  20. JD-TWINS
    Lee - Lewis - Julien can’t all play at the same time in the infield more than 15 - 20 games in a full season. CC IS THERE. If, and I would agree, Kirilloff is best at 1B, then we piece playing time together for this group this year and Lewis moves to LF by ‘25……….or we trade Julien. Buxton isn’t going anywhere so there will be a perpetual log jam at DH……not a real good outlet for Julien. If Lewis moves to LF we have the best possible RH hitting corner OF. I see this becoming real in ‘25 with Wallner going to RF. Lee - CC - Julien - Kirilloff infield for ‘25. Lewis - Buxton/Martin - Wallner outfield for ‘25. Seems fairly probable.
  21. JD-TWINS
    Trade Sands straight up for Stuart Fairchild of the Reds. He’s their 5th OF’er with time at AAA last year. He’s Martin with experience for CF. He was kept on big club late September when Bader was released. RH hitting OF that plays mostly left field & center field. Good speed. Controllable & playing for minimum and an opportunity. Reds roster is clogged with young talent & they are probably moving Jonathan India to OF this spring. Seems like a win - win.
  22. JD-TWINS
    His WAR in ‘23, inclusive of his fine defense, was .6. Just not anything of interest for more than $2.5M. Why not just sign Taylor for similar defense - better power - similar average - continuity?………I don’t know what Bader will sign for…….another writer here had him at $10-$13M………don’t recall if that was per year or for two years? If either are correct (assuming 2 years), Taylor could be signed for same.
  23. JD-TWINS
    Taylor made $4.5M I believe, in ‘23. Castro - Buxton - Gordon - Martin have CF covered, at least until the trade deadline, at a minimum. I get defensive WAR and the need to not have a butcher in CF but it’s not like hiring a rocket scientist. We have capable guys under contract. No need to create 2 issues by moving Kepler from RF to CF. He’s a proven, effective RF - leave him there. One of 3 guys in the game that hit .300 & have over 30 XBH after the break in ‘23!!
  24. JD-TWINS
    Bad news is there’s only about 25% of starts by LH pitching - 30% on high side. Can’t see paying Bader when they already have guys that are rostered - not to potentially thrive in 40-45 games. Don’t see why Gordon or Castro can’t play CF 100 games? Gordon started about 45 games there in ‘22 and he played 2B as needed since Polanco was hurt & he played LF. Whether he can hit like he did in ‘22 again is up in the air. Really don’t see Castro struggling to match Bader’s .235 BA from either side of the plate. Hopefully, Buxton can start the 40 games v. LH pitching in CF!
  25. JD-TWINS
    Lopez - Ryan - Ober - Paddack - Varland - (New Guy) Stewart - Jax - Thielbar - Funderburk - Winder - Alcala - Duran - ……. and a combination of “whoever’s” to get us to August……….Canterino to throw 20 innings from August 15 to October 1st………..Varland to the Pen again by September 10th ……..seems like a plausible plan. Festa - Headrick - SWR to supplement rotation as needed.
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