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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    Understand the concept on value but I saw last week that he was one of 4 guys (Kepler, Cory Seager, & 2 others) after the All-Star break that hit .300 or better and had 30 extra base hits. With his steady defense, Twins absolutely have to see if this continues offensive level or even 85% of it would be nice! He had a 121 OPS plus for the season and his first 10-11 weeks were brutal - he was under .200 BA at one point. He then had sustained success over the last 14 weeks.
  2. JD-TWINS
    Bummer - They’ll all be gone (FA arms) by the time we sort out what to do - just going to have to cross fingers & hope! ….This drives Wacha up to $18M for 3 years, more than likely.
  3. JD-TWINS
    HR’s are a problem with Ryan - no question. He just seems to get loose with his command within the zone. The ERA separation between Gray & Ryan at the end of June - maybe 70 innings for each - could be 5 runs or so, not a different stratosphere.
  4. JD-TWINS
    No opposition to this - seems like anybody that throws 95.8MPH on average with 3 options left could/would/should be a value to support the bullpen depth! Not sure why Dodgers would move him?
  5. JD-TWINS
    How many times have you received a raise and then when the economy shifted or the business weakened, you took or told the ownership to pay you only 40% of what you agreed to 9 months prior??? Nobody is concerned here with who your daughter dates……….CC is not the problem. FO and ownership knew about the unstable TV deal and we’re ALL aware of the fact that athletes have up & down seasons, particularly if they’re hurt. Did your future son in law give back any money during the 2.5 years of absolute brutal performance at the plate prior to late June of ‘23? I like Max - I’m not in love with Correa, but come on!
  6. JD-TWINS
    It’s doable - don’t like displacing Kirilloff, our “Natural” just 18 months ago. Theoretically, he will be healthy and even stronger than ‘23 and available April 1. BA of .270 in first “full” season with a .793 OPS. IMO, he needs to play & start 130 games. Wallner & Kepler both had OPS north of .800 in ‘23. I like Kirilloff and hope he can reach his potential of 20 HR & .285 BA in a near perfect world. As I state essentially every day here, I take whatever assets we think Brewers will take for Burnes & shift off of him to obtain Devin Williams. He’s at $6.25M in ‘23 (which we can afford while keeping Polanco, etc.) & under control for TWO years. He can affect 115 games over 2 seasons. This makes our Pen elite and lessens the burden on the starters. Then, trade Polanco and maybe Vazquez (throw in $3M per year for salary help) to sign a Wacha or Lugo or such. Varland locked in as a starter. Williams at the deadline might be more workable? Plant the seed now with Milwaukee. To me, everyone not on 26 man nor Lee & Jenkins is tradable.
  7. JD-TWINS
    Am assuming they trade Polanco for some benefit but principally to shed his salary v. his limited availability. ‘23 OPS for projected starters v. RH pitching: .840 - .750 - .793 - .920 - .816 - .711 - .877 - .732 - .859 Julien - Castro - Kirilloff - Lewis - Kepler - CC - Wallner - Buxton - Jeffers ……..the only anticipated regression might be Castro & Wallner - right? Castro may have 25 sac bunts with this line-up as well as 25 bunt hits. With talents like a healthy CC & Buxton sprinkled through the line-up is a big advantage! CC & Buxton can’t be worse than ‘23 & still be playing so this is pretty encouraging.
  8. JD-TWINS
    Burnes as a rental at $14M for a bunch of trade capital & then sign Hoskins………that’s a pipe dream.
  9. JD-TWINS
    To me, expectations need to be tempered. There is no perfect team - no perfect staff. This, “we need to trade for a co-#1 or a #2 guy to start playoff games”, or else, is a little over the top. Arizona was in the World Series in ‘23 & take a look at their staff. They won 84 games during the season. Chins up Twins fans!! Let’s be realistic, Gray was 15-19 in his starts (lack of run support, true) a .441 winning % in ‘23. He won a playoff game and got out of a major jam v. Toronto by picking a guy off 2B. His other playoff start wasn’t good!! The team didn’t lose some savior! He was very good and fun to watch but he’s not Tom Seaver. If we got Lugo (as an example), who carried a 3.53 ERA last year, for $13M it would be a huge plus. Added depth to keep himself, Ober, & Paddack fresh through the year with Varland contributing heavily as a starter. Playoff Staff: 12 guys………. Gm #1 Lopez Gm #2 Ryan - Paddack as a piggyback Gm #3 Ober - Varland as a piggyback Gm #4 Lugo if needed with short rest days, doubtful Funderburk - Thielbar - Canterino/Alcala - Jax - Stewart - Duran Seems this is a very competitive staff up against nearly any other team. Can we trade Polanco & Vazquez (kick in $3M/year to make happen)? This allows team to then take current payroll down to $100M & sign Jordan Montgomery for $26M……I like that as well but don’t see it as a do or fail!
  10. JD-TWINS
    I live in Cincinnati and, trust me, watching Mahle pitch is a lot like watching Emilio Pagan. Constantly waiting for the inexplicable walk after up 1-2 in a count and then a HR! All the “baseball pundits” said when Mahle got out of Cinti he would not give up as many HR due to bigger confines. First start in Minneapolis, 3 HR. Pretty good talent but not a good mental approach - always trying to strike guys out and then high pitch count and then walks and then HR’s. He’ll drive you crazy.
  11. JD-TWINS
    Well said! Lugo - Wacha - etc. would be adequate to provide us with enough depth to push through the season. Enables Twins to ease the load on any guy in the rotation during July/ August. These guys (FA) are affordable but probably won’t be around for more than another couple weeks. Completely agree on acquiring the #1 v. #5 guy ……doesn’t matter. Can he pitch in the playoffs and maintain an ERA of 4.00 or better? That’s the target baseline. Our top 3 guys are capable & completely agree that Paddack showed potential to be the #2 if he can hold up with reasonable health. Team was 15-19 in Gray’s starts…….he had an effective playoff start & had to pick-off a guy at 2nd to end an inning/rally in that one. Other playoff start was subpar. Gotta be real about what his contribution really was and not just be enamored with his ERA & competitive nature. I get his wins/losses were run support related at times………bottom line is he didn’t shine in the playoffs & Louie Varland can be a .500 pitcher!!
  12. JD-TWINS
    Who trades a #2 or #3 starter w/o some very attractive pieces in return? We traded a batting champ for Lopez (essentially Miami’s #3 guy long-term). So we need to kick up some high end prospects or forget it - nothing’s free. The only starting pitchers that might be traded that have that kind of ability are one year rentals. I don’t like this as we need to give up too much with high end risk due to just one season. Burnes & Glasnow, even if we committed the trade capital, cost $14-$15M & $25M this year & then they’ll walk. If the Brewers want to re-tool (trading Burnes, maybe Adammes, & Woodruff is hurt) they may follow through with what was put in print a month ago, & field offers for Devin Williams? If we commit to the proper package we can have him in 55 - 60 games affecting the outcome - 2 years - $6.25M in ‘24. Our Pen is elite! If we trade Polanco, $$ are available for a middling FA like Lugo for the rotation & our depth is golden.
  13. JD-TWINS
    Buxton - under 70 games per year over 9 years………absolutely no reason to think he’ll play near a 100 games in CF…….he’s done that once in his previous 9 years. I don’t get the reluctance of many on Castro’s ability to play CF every day. He hit .257 last year in 358 AB’s. IMO, he can either play CF or he can’t………makes no sense that he. a play CF only 50 games well……..the critique has to be offensive consistency based - right? If Gordon didn’t get hurt last year he would have been penciled in for 80 or more games v. RH pitching. Now here’s a wildcard for offensive consistency! Gotta see what they think about his bat in Spring Training. Between Buxton (35 games) - Castro (75 games) - Gordon (30 games) - Martin (20 games)……….some combination like this w/o leaning on Buxton too much potentially keeps him healthy for playoffs. Gordon may not be involved? If he is and has some success, Martin might not be involved? I just don’t like spending $$$ on some OK veteran FA and displacing guys we have rostered and can afford. Definitely don’t need to waste trade capital for some other team’s young outfielders with no pedigree producing in the Show ………we have those types of players with nice potential in St. Paul.
  14. JD-TWINS
    Theoretically, v. LH starter: Vazquez - C Jeffers - DH Castro - Buxton - Kepler in OF Lewis - CC - Farmer - Kirilloff in IF ……7 RH bats should be enough.
  15. JD-TWINS
    Agreed, Buxton is maybe 40 games in OF if things go well and Martin will take until June/July to try out. Castro can fill in for some months - maybe Gordon helps if he hits OK in Spring Training? Gotta focus on trading Polanco and hang on to Max! Potentially, could trade Kepler in offseason if they plan on signing someone like Duvall OR if they think Lee is ready sooner than expected and Lewis could go to LF possibly. I don’t exchange Max for a different veteran OF……only if someone out of the system pushes him out mid-summer……doubt that happens.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Maeda - Mahle - Gallo - Solano - Taylor - Gray is about $44M…….these guys are all gone. Arbitration guys probably are an additional $6M over last year. $154M less $44M plus $6M = $116M total …… Twins are certainly within a couple million either way. They need to move Polanco and it frees up $20 - $24M to spend and stay at $130M or less. A typical year to year payroll increase is 5-10%……at $130M we have a 16% reduction from ‘23. That has to work for ownership!
  17. JD-TWINS
    I would prefer the former but I don’t know what team is trading any pitcher that’s established, that we can afford, UNLESS they only have one year of control left. That’s not a good move for Twins. A FA could be experienced with two or more years of commitment. Lugo is a guy that I think gives us quality & affordability. We can then trade for Option B above if we want to shed salary for value. My broken record is making the Pen elite via trade with Brewers, we move 3-4 players or prospects, as needed, to secure Devin Williams for 2 years - $6.25M salary this year. Winder - Alcala - Thielbar - Funderburk - Jax - Stewart - Williams - Duran would be formidable. Varland is committed as 5th/6th starter and trade pressure for a starter is greatly reduced.
  18. JD-TWINS
    Seems unlikely the Astros would trade a helpful piece to the team they just faced in the playoffs & as unlikely the Twins would trade someone of value to Houston - right?
  19. JD-TWINS
    Brewers are adverse to spending, particularly in ‘24, per reports of a handful of core players available in trade. List starts with Burnes & goes through most everyone on the roster that’s paid much more than the minimum. Polanco’s salary won’t play there. They may accept him in trade to then flip him for prospects from elsewhere? Gordon hit .272 in ‘22 with 9 HR & 28 doubles. Started slow, very slow in ‘23 & soon after showing 2-3 weeks of some normalcy he broke his leg & was out for balance of the year. He would have played a minimum of 80 games in CF last year against RH pitching. In ‘22 (Buxton was an All-Star) he was in CF 40 plus starts. His .743 OPS over 405 AB’s & .272 BA with 28 doubles trumps any of the maybe options the Brewers have. Castro showed he has no problems with the position with decent range, good speed, & a great arm. He hit .257 over 358 AB’s with 32 XBH & 33 stolen bases with a .750 OPS. These guys are inexpensive, and have all the ability needed to cover CF, particularly with Austin Martin as another option (don’t forget Byron for 10-20% of the starts) by June/July. To me the guys from the Brewers off little if anything over Martin at this point in their histories. Trade Polanco (to flip for prospects) - Sands - E. Rodriguez - AA prospect to the Brewers for 2 years of Devin Williams at $6.25M. This would be helpful to both Team’s short-term goals. Keeping Farmer as the best alternative ($6.5M v. Polanco’s $10.5M) for depth at all 3 glove positions in the infield minimizes the need for Castro or Gordon to be saved for Utility work.
  20. JD-TWINS
    Trading for a healthy Devin Williams for 2 years of control - an 8th or 9th inning guy, 2-time All-Star, $6.25M in ‘24…….our Pen would be elite & Varland go be #5 or # 6 in rotation for solid depth. Can’t imagine a better use of a Top prospect (Rodriguez) plus Polanco (to flip for prospects) - Sands. Certainly, one of the dozen!
  21. JD-TWINS
    We have lots of infield depth - however, in the Show we have a leaking Buxton - Wallner - Castro & 40 man guys in Larnach & a couple converted infielders in Gordon - Martin………..Kepler remaining with the club sure seems to help with depth at this point. After May, and a firm feel for Gordon & Larnach & Martin’s offense for ‘24, a much better feel for Buxton’s health, then considering moving Max could make some sense toward the deadline.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Can’t get Froemming’s video past the first 45 seconds - keeps cutting to Matt. Matt’s discussion is trading infield depth for a middle level reliever with lots of control & upside. I like the idea and am not opposed to trading Kyle Farmer for an arm - careful for what you take for granted though! Matt says “Farmer kinda filled the roll we got him for……”. His career BA is .255 and he hit .255. He played all 3 glove spots in the infield as well or better than the guys that typically started in front of him. No doubt better than Lewis & Julien defensively. Also, finished ahead of Polanco at 2B metrics in ‘23. Other than being forced off the active roster for about a month due to getting HBPB in the face, he was available every day! I invest in our Pen to make it immediately elite! Trade a package like Polanco - Gordon - Rodriguez - Sands (assuming they would flip Polanco for prospects) to the Brewers for Devin Williams. He’s affordable at $6.25M currently (trading $10.5M salary in Polanco) and he’s got 2 years left of control. Our time to win is NOW! Varland is displaced from Pen by somebody better - he becomes our 5th/6th starter and our Pen is better. Team payroll is at $110M after this deal - spend up to $14-$15M on a FA starter. Lee - Julien - Lewis - CC - Farmer - Castro - Martin have our infield glove needs more than covered.
  23. JD-TWINS
    The Tennessee connection to Martin seems strong. He hurt his arm, unfortunate, the Twins didn’t. He’ll get a shot by June/July this summer & maybe sooner if he shines. The organization wants performance on the big club, period. There’s no giving players opportunities to see how it works out - there is need to promote because of a VOID in the roster or because a player’s PERFORMANCE at AAA warrants he be moved up. Sorry to be using only Martin as the example. I’m tired of the lack of respect guys that are performing in The Show get and the constant need for people here in TD wanting to see how “youth might work out”. Guys that are over 28 don’t need to be recycled somewhere other than on the Twins roster. Castro - Solano - Taylor - Farmer held the club together last year and then the appropriate injection of Julien - Wallner - Lewis built a tremendous momentum! Saying Martin should be traded to be fair to him after 1.5 healthy years in our system, so that he can have a chance, seems dramatic. I fully expect him to be playing regularly for the Big Club by mid-season if he hits anywhere near what he did over his last 40 games in St Paul in ‘23. He is team’s insurance in CF when Buxton crumbles or it’s deemed he can only play there once a week. If Gordon gets traded - a real possibility, he may make the team right out of Spring Training. Expect him to be regular contributor by the deadline.
  24. JD-TWINS
    That’s a lot of information about the Dodgers! My assumption was that they were good in RF after they re-signed J. Heyward? I think Milwaukee or any club will trade whoever to whoever based on the deal offered. Blockbuster trades are media and fan driven terms that I don’t think organizations really consider. I don’t really care who we trade out of our minor league group, other than Lee or Jenkins. I’m not going to propose I know who the Brewers may want, specifically. For 2 years of Williams, I’d consider keeping Polanco and trading Julien with a prospect (no longer Rodriguez) and a pitcher with some upside potential like Winder. Winder provides a Pen option that’s cheap for years and Julien is a very valuable piece to satisfy their 2B issues…….seems to me I saw they may have picked up a 2B and were moving Turang to SS…..this still leaves an offensive hole in their line-up though. If the offer is attractive enough - and the Twins understand Milwaukee’s roster/organization -Twins can make an attractive offer……..may not fly but worthwhile to discuss.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Balazovic - Alcala - Headrick are competent guys to get through 4-5 outs in an outing…….there will be ups & downs but that’s baseball. My best solution is trading with the re-tooling Brewers…….Take on $6.25M in salary by picking up 2 years of Devin Williams……Rodriguez - Gordon - Winder (2 guys that can play in ‘24 & a solid high end prospect)….or whoever - make this happen and he covers either the 8th or 9th depending upon the day. Pushes Jax & Stewart & the two lefties back to the 6th & 7th. With Williams in our Pen we are squarely in Win Now mode!
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