JD-TWINS

Often in the TD submissions I see naysayers sighting that we play in a weak Division and that we made the playoffs in ‘23 with a weak line-up and we were “lucky” to get in with 87 wins. Now that we have beaten the Blue Jays & were competitive in playing the Astros in October it seems there would be many more believers. I still see comments stating that if we don’t sign a Power hitting 1B or a FA Centerfielder or if we don’t trade for a #1-#2 starter to replace Gray we’ll be sunk. Other observations…….we were 14-5 during the regular season v. the last 4 teams standing in the NLCS & ALCS. We didn’t get all of our wins against the Central Division. In ‘23 we were 15-19 in games that were started by Sonny Gray. I’m not saying he wasn’t a very solid piece to have, but his presence obviously wasn’t the key to our finishing 87-75! …….Can Louie Varland be part of 15 wins in 34 games started? Seems plausible to me. Would I like a more proven starter - absolutely. The TD Forum had an author either today or yesterday that had the ratings of each team’s roster as presently constituted, with FA’s blowing in the wind at this point. The TWINS were ranked as the 6th Best Roster in the game at this point. If Kirilloff is healthy & we can make a deal for a pitcher via FA ($$ available once we trade Polanco) or some extravagant trade move (5 guys for Corbin Burnes) we have an excellent chance of winning the Division. PLAYOFF ROSTER has Varland back in the Pen with Stewart - Jax - Funderburk - Thielbar - Duran……..,Rotation may have a new guy or we go with the Core Four we presently have. Line-up has healthy Kirilloff playing 1B hitting .275 with Julien/Farmer platoon at 2B & CC and Lewis on the left side. Wallner - Castro/Martin - Kepler and Lee & Buxton available to DH with the 2 catchers. That’s a solid club without us turning the present roster upside down! I don’t think we’re very far away with the guys we have as of 11/14/23.

Agree with the overview of Larnach - the desire to give him a chance - couldn’t play him at 1B ahead of Gallo (not an option) late ‘23 - Gordon should maybe be offered up first….etc. To me, heavy watcher of MLB Network ….skimmer of The Athletic…….every day reader of TD Forum, there’s no obvious trade partners for pitching ……..who wants to trade proven starters or arms in general???? …….NOBODY, except maybe the Brewers. My slant is the following: Either Miranda or Larnach (1 of them minimum) has a chance to be on an MLB roster for a number of years - maybe both. Maybe not stars but functional, depth pieces at a minimum - reasonable thought? Winder (when healthy was on a Bailey Ober level in ‘22) Moran - Sands (1 of them minimum) have a real chance at an MLB roster year in & year out - maybe 2 of the 3 - reasonable thought? Rodriguez our 20 year old power hitting CF…..a highly regarded prospect with a nice upside. Jorge Polanco - would rank #1 or #2 Free Agent 2B available IF a FA. Solid D & switch hitter with Pop, when healthy……$10.5M salary comes with him. We trade these 7 guys to Milwaukee for Corbin Burnes & Devin Williams……one year rental on Burnes & Williams for a couple years. Our staff becomes elite immediately! Brewers shed salary and start their rebuild with 6 guys under team control for a handful of years……..the assumption is they do not want Polanco’s salary so they investigate a separate trade partner for Polanco to get a couple of prospects to help their rebuild. Can others out there get behind this thinking? Maybe we alter it a guy but the gist is we believe in our offense and with these two guys totaling $18-$22M total (saved $10.5M with Polanco move & have now to spend) we have the best set-up guy in the game, in Williams, to go with our best closer in the game, Duran. We then have Stewart - Jax - Varland - Funderburk - Balazovic/Alcala - Thielbar to go along with Williams & Duran. Corbin Burnes added to our rotation along with Chris Paddack gets us back, at a minimum, to where we were with Gray & Maeda in ‘23!! Best staff in the game and we don’t alter our core with Polanco, being the only real contributor being moved, and Julien/Farmer platoon at 2B to take up the slack.

Very good analysis be Nick! Farmer is better on D at all 3 positions he or Polanco may play. The $3.5M difference in salary………. .255 BA (career .255) & 120 games (lost a month after getting hit in the face) in ‘22 for Farmer…… .256 BA (career .270 & .235 BA in ‘22) & 80 games in ‘23 for Polanco. Cost - Durability/availability - D flexibility - consistency all fall to Farmer. Keep Kepler - Farmer - Vazquez…….he is 4th best defensive catcher in league & can’t trade his $10M salary I throw Castro - Gordon - Martin into our outfield options………all ahead of Larnach.

I completely agree on Farmer. Gallo is gone - Polanco is still hanging on for $10.5M……..agreed there as well, he needs to be part of a trade. Julien/Farmer in a platoon at 2B………Lee is coming by July 1 to some infield position. Gray - Gallo - Polanco - Maeda - Mahle - Taylor - Solano are all gone and that’s approximately $52M!………arbitration guys will cost an additional $7-$8M up from last year. If we can trade Polanco (to shed his $$) & maybe re-sign Solano for $3.5M the budget is around $155M - $52M + $7.5M + $3.5M = $114M at this point. If we believe what we read…….before re-signing Solano…….we are at $111M & have $10M - $30M to spend and still reduce budget into range FO has stated as acceptable.

Don’t understand how the Staff is not up to speed? Losing Gray doesn’t help - understood! We were 15-19 in Gray’s starts in ‘23. With a new arm, we have a good shot at equaling that success rate or better, especially with the offense you describe. The ERA will inflate & more HR/9 than Gray, but still competitive…….I AGREE, we should add an arm or two through various potential paths…….we’re not weak with existing roster though. Potential Pen: Balazovic - Thielbar - Funderburk - Alcala - Jax - Headrick - Stewart - Henriquez - Duran - Winder……..3-4 other guys on the fringe Rotation: Varland - Ober - Paddack - Ryan - Lopez

I like Farmer too: What’s the difference between his probable arbitration bump to maybe $7.25M and some lower number ………maybe $5.4M? The whole reason the two sides negotiated arbitration into the bargaining agreement is so they (either side) don’t get unfairly leveraged. $1.8M (or any negotiated $$ #) isn’t moving the needle on the budget. Keep Farmer at the real number due to his capability at 3 positions & trade Polanco to shed the $10.5M he’s owed. Farmer is routinely available (other than when hit in the face - lost a month) 265 games over past 2 years ……..Polanco is not always healthy……190 games over past 2 years.

Can’t imagine anyone trading for Vazquez at $10M per year unless they have a frontline injury. He’s 4th best defensive catcher in league so we probably want to hang on to him. Castro - Martin - Buxton ………& maybe Gordon will be holding down CF until Rodriguez or Jenkins are ready in ‘26. I re-sign Solano for $3.25M and let Severino get another year to develop at the plate in St. Paul………Miranda does not seem to be in the plans realistically.

Polanco, if they like, Winder - Moran - Sands - Rodriguez - Miranda - Larnach………..6 potential solid contributors and 5 under team control…….,couple former top prospects & a new power bat with potential!! Three arms to help fill the void left in the trade. Jorge Polanco…….they may use in an additional trade? Opens some slots on our 40 man as well. For: Corbin Burnes & Devin Williams. They want to rebuild & shed salary - could be ideal! Burnes as a 1 year rental with Williams for a couple years………add them to our staff & we’re elite!

Who/what are we trading for? Prospects? Nobody is trading a decent pitcher for anyone we would part with - unless multiple guys from us. Real trade pieces & why: Polanco - lack of availability & cost relative to internal options Rodriguez - Jenkins is right behind him Julien - defense lacking? Wallner - lots of K’s? None of the pitchers named above are going anywhere. Sands - Moran - Headrick - Balazovic are all guys we could pair with a couple bats to do something positive. We NEED to clear 40 man space. Polanco - Miranda - Larnach - Gordon - Rodriguez The Milwaukee staff has 4-5 guys to consider a trade for with varying control. Relief studs & impact starters. Williams in our Pen & Varland back to rotation seems feasible. Polanco - Larnach - Moran for Devin Williams? Better package for 1 year of Corbin Burnes? I don’t see any non-contender taking on Polanco’s salary. How about Polanco - Sands - Miranda & maybe Gordon for another Miami arm? Luzardo & the rookie are untouchable but there may be more there? They are down Alcantara to surgery so they may be too thin? They still need offense & Sands may help ease some depth issues? Milwaukee seems to be the best partner but we’ll have to overpay with controllable potential. They have worthwhile pitching! Rodriguez - Polanco - Miranda - Moran - Gordon for Burnes & Williams………..couple potential cheap bats that have upside after injury’s in ‘23. A big time power prospect! A solid guy to plug existing hole at 2B. An upside pitcher to work with maybe………….. Sands/Moran/Rodriguez/Miranda/Gordon if they don’t want the Polanco cost?

has already declined! - you’re right on with his defensive limitations on left side of infield! Julien v. RH pitching at 2B with Farmer at $7.25M to supplement time there - Farmer another 20 games at SS & 30 games at 3B. Late inning D as well as pinch hitter.

No offense here…………but a Reality check on Polanco: .235 BA in ‘22 and played 108 games .256 BA in ‘23 and played 80 games .270 career hitter Not available and hitting skills declining & making $10.5M Farmer makes, or will, $7.25M and played 145 games and 120 games last 2 years & hit .256 & .255………..missed time this year due to pitch to the face. Career .255 BA - no decline & available! Better defensive skills at all 3 positions than Polanco! Julien needs to play 2B v. RH pitching……..Lee is coming by the All-Star break to play somewhere. No reason not to trade Polanco if we can couple him with Miranda - Larnach - Moran - Sands - etc.to get back some decent value.

He’s hurt year in & year out is your point & I completely agree. The fan base seems clouded by some inaccurate memory of his career. 140 games 1 season …….. 530 games in the other 8 seasons = 66 games per season average. Last year zero in OF. Fans want him to roam CF as a Gold Glover “like he used to back in the day”…….reality is, the good days were very few and far between!!! Another fan issue………What he’s paid has nothing to do with what we should expect of him - he can only do what his body allows, doesn’t matter what organization is paying him. In ‘24, Buxton for maybe 40-60 games in CF this year if the knee is finally cleaned up. DH for 70 games, if he’s hitting. This is a best case!! Castro/Gordon/Martin have to be adequate as the alternative to Buxton in ‘24.

2-3 months in St. Paul & see if he advances a bit more with bat to ball skills - an option if we have depth/injury issues at 1B. Adding him to 40 man is a commitment move from FO.

Out of Spring Training the Buxton/Castro/Gordon combination in CF has to be the solution at least through May. Martin may be a big part of the mix by July 1 but he needs another 50-60 games in St Paul before coming to the Show. Good speed - RH bat - he fits well if the other guys are struggling at all. I sign Solano & roll with him & Kirilloff again. at 1B. If Kirilloff is mending too slowly, Gallo could be signed for $2.5M to play 1B for 6 weeks. I know that sounds crazy but it’s better than losing some viable prospect in a trade & possibly overpaying at 1B. Can upgrade here at deadline if absolutely needed!! Who’s the best guy for Twins to trade for value? Polanco/Farmer/Julien? Who do we hurt least losing & who brings something in return? Polanco isn’t available enough & costs $10.5M……,,Farmer costs $3.5M less than Polanco & is available every day (both hit .256 in ‘23) ……,.Julien has too much upside to trade. Polanco - Miranda - Moran - Larnach - Headrick - Sands are guys (3 of them) that could help a sub .500 club be more competitive. Polanco & 2 guys under team control for a while makes sense for a trade partner. Our problem is we probably can only target a blah to OK pitcher (a stretch) or prospects. Getting Devon Williams for couple years of control or C. Burnes for a year (Varland to Start or in Pen depending on the guy in trade) rental and creating 40 man space by moving 3 guys works for me? Martin & Lee are the 2 shot in the arms we will need on offense by mid-summer.

Doesn’t really matter what you want to trade Polanco for as an observer…. your video comments seem to be a bit sentimental, understood, but team can’t be built that way………what do we need & what can we get? We can’t trade a broken down (108 games & 80 games last 2 years) 2B straight up for anything but prospects. Mediocre - Bad - Rebuild teams do not want a $10.5M contract……..good teams aren’t trading starting pitching!!! Don’t need $26M of salary (Buxton/Polanco) available 40-50% of the time. Outside of 1 season Buxton averages 77 games/year over 8 seasons. Can’t make that situation worse with Jorge!! Can’t! Now, Polanco - Larnach - Miranda in a package ……..maybe Moran or Headrick tossed in for one of the other 3…………this may land good pitching prospect or even a reasonable current starter at end of contract (Corbin Burnes) from 2-3 organizations…….Milwaukee - Pittsburgh - Washington - Miami? CF is covered internally. Buxton/Castro/Gordon/Martin…..something there has to work. NOBODY is trading starting pitching at the level we need - only target staff with enough pitching to consider or I can envision is Seattle & we don’t want to make them better with 2-3 every day guys!! .235 & .256 last two seasons for Polanco ……..Farmer is better defensively at all 3 positions they may share in ‘24 ……he makes $3-$4M less……..he hit .256 in ‘23 & played 145 games & 120 games last 2 years. Gotta be Julien & Farmer at 2B…….with Farmer being depth at SS & 3B. Polanco needs to move to maybe Milwaukee - Washington - Miami - Boston along with a couple other guys under control for the receiving team.

You think Miranda will come back - maybe so? I just see him as an insignificant piece in the organization. Trade now or later - don’t bank on him helping the Big Club is my opinion. Respectfully, saying you have faith that Polanco will have a very good season is like me saying I think Buxton will have a very good season. Polanco 104 games & hit .235 in ‘22 & 80 games & hit .255 in ‘23. No real reason to think he’s going to be more physically available this season…………..at this point Farmer’s D is better at all 3 positions they may play………..Farmer hit .255 in ‘22, played 145 games & he hit .256 in ‘23, played 120 games (.255 career hitter) while he missed about a month after getting hit in the face. Availability & consistency! If Larnach is playing well this year he should be on Big Club….I don’t see him lasting with organization until Spring Training. He’s shown flashes 3-4 times but doesn’t seem to sustain. He looks good but again, hasn’t been consistent.

If we want contact - less K’s - consistency at 1B how about starting Kirilloff 130 games? He carried us for a month after he came up late last spring. He was solid until he hurt his shoulder. He just needs to heal and be penciled into the line-up…….he was our best prospect 2 years ago……pure hitter if he can stay healthy. Kirilloff at 1B & Castro/Gordon/Martin in CF is just fine. Julien & Farmer have 2B covered. Trade Polanco………….Spend the saved $$ on pitching!

Buxton in CF as much as possible - 60 games best case Zero games worst case. Castro played 125 games in ‘23……we don’t NEED flexibility in his defense with Wallner established in LF & with Lewis at 3B about 80% of the time. No problem with him in CF as much as necessary - even 120 games. Keep Farmer for flexibility & depth at all 3 IF spots & trade Polanco for prospects or with a couple guys for some pitching (doubtful). Castro starts v. LH pitching - Gordon can play CF as well (would have played 80-90 games in ‘23 if not hurt). Martin had a nice Fall Ball season in ‘22 ……after coming back from arm injury this year he finished strong in St Paul. If he can back up his last 300 AB’s with more of the same he’s more than viable to bring up by mid-June. Buxton would be great but we have CF covered internally if he doesn’t play another game out there.

IMO, Miranda is not part of the Team’s plan forward. Kirilloff is the 1B going forward. Lewis - CC - Julien - Kirilloff …… Farmer - Solano Jeffers - Vazquez Buxton Wallner - Castro - Kepler - Gordon Lee & Martin are the depth guys that are potentially both up by July 1. Polanco - Miranda - Larnach are traded. (less $10M) Sticking with internal solutions in CF and waiting for offensive juice from Minors until July, allows us to pursue a number of pitching scenarios!!

Severino for $12.5M & 1 year. Huge upside, health risk, but his last handful of stats showed a positive trend. He’ll be pitching for a long-term deal & will be focused!!!

Bader is mediocre at best or he’d be signed somewhere & part of a line-up!! He’s younger than Taylor - that’s his only plus when comparing them. Castro can put up numbers superior to those of Bader from right side. Theoretically, Buxton has a chance to play 60-80 games in CF. Martin has a chance to be up and contributing by June. Gordon could come back and split time with Castro in CF and some LF……..possibly, v. RH pitching, Gordon could DH as well. I’m assuming Polanco is gone and Julien is at 2B for 65% of the season. Bader is not the answer - not on a roster at the close of the season.

I agree with BigFork Twins - best option is sign Jordan Montgomery!!! 2 years at $21M next 2 years at $26M 5th year at HIS option for $26M. We were at $154M budget - theoretically, need to trim because revenue lost isn’t clearly replaced. If we look at the $45M shed with our FA we’re down to $109M ……..add $7M to handle the arbitration increases ………up to $116M plus Montgomery at $21M = $137M …..plus a couple minimum guys from AAA takes us to $139M max……I would trade Polanco as well & we’re at $129M. If we get Montgomery we’re fine…….we bet on Buxton in CF or Castro in CF or Gordon in CF or Martin in CF…….all within budget. Lee is coming mid-summer. CC is healthy & more productive, not necessarily great. Lewis - Kirilloff - Julien - CC - Wallner - Jeffers - Kepler will have to carry the offense with Castro in CF & Buxton at DH. Our pitching rotation would be excellent, assuming fair health. Similar $$ solution is sign Severino from Yankees (big upside) & trade for Devin Williams from Milwaukee & use Varland for rotation depth this year. (trade Miranda - Larnach - Moran) Could sign Severino & Maeda as well & keep Varland in Pen?

Have been a big Jordan Montgomery cheerleader in this Forum for last 3-4 weeks! Also, see value in an upside guy that’s much less cost, like Severino of Yankees (great stuff) & maybe Maeda as well for solid depth. Also, trading Miranda - Larnach - Moran to open 40 man spots & to get Corbin Burnes for a year is intriguing. My latest thought is (no bats, per your headline, “pitching”) and send the same 3 guys to Milwaukee for Devin Willams. This allows Varland to go back to the rotation while having an elite set-up guy!!! Still sign Maeda for depth.

Soto in ‘23: .275 BA …. 568 At Bats ….. 35 HR …..OBP%.410 Kepler in ‘23: .260 BA ……..438 At Bats ….24 HR ….OBP%.332 Soto has a better ability to walk! Reflected in OBP. Definite value there. Kepler, significantly a better OF. Value there as well. Both have 1 year left & Kepler makes $5M less. Don’t see a great value in the move for a one year deal.