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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    Perfect teams don’t exist. Pablo Lopez was 2nd in League & top 5 in baseball in K’s. He’s 23rd in ERA in ‘23. There’s 30 teams - he’s an ACE. After watching 2 playoff starts, I pitch him in front of Gray every day of the week! How many other staffs have 6 starters that are very capable of sub 4.00 ERA & over .500 W-L records?………we currently have 5 guys. We could certainly use another but trading Vazquez doesn’t help us from a pitching standpoint. Vazquez was 4th best defensive catcher in AL, handles catchers great - need to hang in to him as valuable depth guy! Spending $12.5M total on 2 good catchers is OK spending. Gallo - Gray - Mahle - Taylor - Solano & a Polanco trade totals around $50M from last year’s $154M total………after the arbitration guys were given offers, we’re at around $114M……..that’s $25M to work with, after an assumed 10% reduction in payroll. J. Montgomery is an option within payroll at $137M total……trading for Devin Williams & signing Seth Lugo as FA is an option at $133M total…….,There are many paths to a solid staff and I have confidence that the FO will spend & trade to the Team’s benefit.
  2. JD-TWINS
    Headrick/Winder - Festa - Larnach for a guy that can be our #3 or #4 or even #5 starter is worthwhile. ……..we are in win now mode - can’t afford to trade Wallner’s upside. The guys above don’t affect our near term much at all. They certainly have value…….who knows what Angels may want? Keller in Pittsburgh is a Big swing but may be worthwhile to move 3-4 guys …….maybe a Rodriguez - Miranda - Festa - Headrick/Winder package?
  3. JD-TWINS
    $$$$
  4. JD-TWINS
    I don’t understand how Polanco is linked to either Kirilloff’s or Buxton’s health? Lewis - CC - Julien - Kirilloff is our infield prior to whenever Lee may be ready. Depth is Farmer at $7M max………this was last year’s infield when Polanco was on IL. We need to move Polanco while he’s still upright. Need to clear his $10.5M salary to be able to move on some pitching options. 104 games in ‘22 & 80 games in ‘23…….career .270 hitter that’s hit .235 & .255 the last two years.
  5. JD-TWINS
    He did play a few innings at 1B in the Show in ‘23. I agree that’s how he was groomed (2B) - personally, I think he’s suspect with a glove on, no matter where he’s playing - not an intuitive defensive bone in his body. My comment was IF HE CAN HANDLE 1B - I make no assumptions. Frankly, with Buxton & his deal through ‘27 or ‘28, I see Julien’s potential to DH as seriously limited! Once Lee is hitting at an acceptable level things are clogged at 2B. I’m already assuming they trade Polanco this winter. I did see an interesting thought above that was new……..Lewis to 1B & have Lee play 3B & let Julien stick at 2B. Again, not a natural move for an athlete like Lewis but maybe the best utilization of everyone’s D skills & highest octane offense……..could lead to moving Kepler at deadline if attractive. Kirilloff into LF & Wallner in right with Gordon (Larnach comes up mid-season) & Larnach as OF depth & Castro starting in CF most of the time.
  6. JD-TWINS
    104 games in ‘22 & hit .235 - 80 games in ‘23 & hit .255…………career .270 hitter. Declining health & offense.
  7. JD-TWINS
    Didn’t really see any appealing guy in the mix shown here - can’t imagine Pirates consider moving their guy. Spending $6M for Taylor as an insurance policy is as good as any of these options shown. So, Buxton playing CF is realistically, what - 30%???…….we have inexpensive guys that have played reasonable CF for us previously and are rostered, Castro & Gordon. We have the potential Buxton could play 30-40 games & I would think we’ll know that by March 1st…..still time to get something done via trade if absolutely necessary. Martin being ready by end of June is at least a 50/50 probability. I don’t see a need to sign or trade for any CF help.
  8. JD-TWINS
    For $12M or less per year, we should seriously consider giving him 2 years………we trade Polanco to handle the salary. This gives us some leverage with other negotiations for pitching because we have depth with Maeda & Varland. Maeda’s a solid guy that’s comfortable in the Twin Cities ……re-built elbow so his age isn’t really a negative. Not “needed” to succeed but some added pitching is needed & he seems like a natural fit that’s affordable……..certainly is a viable option.
  9. JD-TWINS
    Kirilloff hit .270, with 11 HR & had an OPS of .793 in 88 games………..Polanco hit .255, 14 HR & had an OPS of .789 in 80 games…….Kirilloff is 4 years younger & making $9M plus less than Polanco……both struggle with health……Polanco played 104 games in ‘22 & hit .235. By the end of July either Lee or Lewis will be playing 2B. If Julien can handle 1B occasionally & he DH’s some, that’s great. Polanco’s salary needs to be moved……either for prospects or with 2-3 guys for a pitcher, before he gets hurt, not at the deadline.
  10. JD-TWINS
    Don’t believe moving guys around as if it’s no big deal to play 1B to solve roster issues……seems fake. Anyway, if Polanco could handle 1B, which is a reasonable assumption, we need to then move Kepler. Gotta get $10M reduction in payroll for pitching help. Kirilloff - Castro - Wallner becomes the probable opening day OF……does that make sense with Polanco & Julien on the right side of the IF? To me, due to availability issues (108 games & 86 games respectively) over the past couple years, Polanco is the guy to move on from.
  11. JD-TWINS
    Don’t get the allure to Duvall? There are essentially zero AB’s at DH available outside of Buxton & Julien. Even if we trade Polanco, Lee will be up by end of June & Julien will be primary DH v. RH pitching. Kirilloff will play 1B 80% of the time. Wallner - Castro/Buxton - Kepler have the OF reps with Gordon/Martin/Larnach in the wings.
  12. JD-TWINS
    He was 4th in League on defensive metrics, per other sources here in TD. I agree, moving him would be an over reaction and a mistake. What happens if Jeffers breaks a finger……we then have 2 unproven guys over an indefinite amount of time…….scary!!
  13. JD-TWINS
    Marlins need a catcher & veteran leadership. Throw in Gordon to help with their CF & back-up 2B issues & maybe Headrick & a prospect. We shed some salary but give Marlins help in more than one spot. Could get a reasonable arm if the “prospect” is good enough. They would be interested in Rodriguez……..we’d then need a real pitcher! Really tough to move 2 years of blah offense at that price. Maybe we trade him and send $7M along with him to spread over his last 2 years?
  14. JD-TWINS
    Castro played in 124 games - 358 AB’s - hit .257 & had a 106 OPS plus with 33 steals……..2.6 WAR and played about 65-70% of the time. I agree that trading Kepler isn’t bright because of lack of proven options in the Corner spots. I do not have a problem with us starting Willi Castro as often as needed in CF! Have Buxton/Gordon/Martin theoretically as depth, with Castro being the lead. Kepler plays until he doesn’t perform up to the deadline. If he’s playing well we’re set - if not, we give someone performing in St Paul a shot. Other option is to get somebody other than Kirilloff at 1B & move him to LF - Wallner to right.
  15. JD-TWINS
    In “win now” mode & there’s no suitable depth behind him this season. Can’t trade Kepler - must trade Polanco………this frees up $$ for pitching. If he’s just OK this season and somebody is pushing for a OF spot from St Paul, we can move Kepler at the deadline. FA pitching is as affordable as many other trade options. Lugo - Maeda - others are available in the $11-$13M range per year.
  16. JD-TWINS
    It IS low - lack of availability over past 2 years - dwindling BA as well. Best of a mediocre situation is trading him with 2-3 other guys for an arm or straight up for prospect. Cannot carry his salary!
  17. JD-TWINS
    So - I’d try to do all I could to trade for Devin Williams - is he good enough? They want to rebuild and get control pieces - shed salary. 2 yrs of control & a current salary of $6.2M……pretty reliable & affordable & 2 years. Rodriguez - Gordon - Festa - Miranda ……2 solid prospects, a potential inexpensive solution at 2B, & Miranda for some throw in potential upside, to fill in for loss of Telez. Varland back into rotation. A reasonably priced FA to add depth. Not trying to sign deGrom or Scherzer types……Lugo for 2 years $22-$25M or Maeda for similar amount or Severino for a year with big upside. If Kepler & Polanco are such low value dogs why did the organization pick up their options? So, I get Kepler seems to have found himself the last 3.5 months of ‘23 & was brutal prior, going back through ‘20……Polanco played 108 & 86 games respectively the last 2 years - hitting is diminishing no matter what people say her in the forum. That said, they have some value…..I trade Polanco with other’s, potentially for an arm & to reduce salary ……worst case him alone for prospect.
  18. JD-TWINS
    Trade for Devin Williams - 2 years of solid bullpen!!! ……..$6.2M/yr. After trading Polanco, take the $$ available & sign a FA pitcher for $12-$13M. (Maeda - Lugo - Severino) $122M payroll now after arbitration tenders ………..,,less Polanco @ &10.5mm - then add a FA & Williams and we cap payroll at $130M.
  19. JD-TWINS
    Twins can’t trade for any infielders other than at 1B - & that’s a stretch…………pitching makes sense, but I can’t see stabilizing a potential playoff foe with Polanco & Kepler. Pitching FA’s are available, ability to trade for excellent reliever for less assets is best approach!
  20. JD-TWINS
    Why not sign a known character guy with similar floor and ceiling - Kenta Maeda. This allows for trades for prospects or lumping a group together to get someone of value.
  21. JD-TWINS
    IMO, Goldschmidt, like most, wants to be part of a winner!!! While I’m not a huge proponent to spend on anything other than pitching, I see the value in a trade for Goldy. He’s a tough sign with the current DH logjam of Buxton/Julien. However, with his addition, we can figure out how to make our current arm options work out! Miranda - Festa - Gordon - Winder - Headrick for Goldschmidt. The cards are signing Lance Lynn & Kyle Gibson so they need some controllable pitching with upside & this solves those issues. V. RH pitching: Julien at 2B - Lewis at 3B - Kirilloff at DH - Kepler in RF - Goldschmidt at 1B - Wallner in LF - CC at SS - Jeffers at C - Castro in CF V. LH pitching: Castro in LF - Buxton at DH - Lewis at 3B - Goldschmidt at 1B - Jeffers at C - Farmer at 2B - CC at SS - Kepler in RF - Martin in CF Add Vazquez & these 2 line-ups & you have the 13 man roster for bats. Problem is, there’s no spending on pitching! I prefer no action on Goldy & focus on a FA starter arm ($11-$13M) & trade for a reliever for less prospect capital………Devin Williams!
  22. JD-TWINS

    Seattle wants Polanco

    JD-TWINS commented on Brandon's blog entry in Blog Brandon

    I don’t like making a foe stronger - there are other FA pitchers out there w/o giving Seattle guys to plug their holes. If we’re a virtual lock to win our Division we need to consider who we may need to get through to advance. I’d pursue other options but if we can move Polanco’s salary, along with depth for Seattle, in Gordon, plus a prospect like Rodriguez, all for a young starter, we need to consider. I’d trade for a solid reliever (Devin Williams) & sign a FA pitcher…….move Varland to depth 5th starter position. Then trade Polanco for prospects or as part of a package to get Williams.
  23. JD-TWINS
    I get it and the assumption from management and/or fans would be that he needs a lot more than 100 plus AB’s to sort out pitching at the MLB level. The thought was contrasting him to Julien, who most often would sit v. LH pitching. Now, he too may benefit by seeing more reps v. lefties. Currently though, if he’s sitting against LH & plays somewhat limited defense, long-term, Lee looks advantageous to many.
  24. JD-TWINS
    Agreed on the “peak value” assumption being awfully misguided. Nothing but praise from guys doing the games in playoffs - there’s something tangible there! His relative awkwardness on defense v. a guy playing solid shortstop, solid defender - switch hitter (no platoon), is a big part of the critique I think. You are right - he had a very good 1/2 season in the Show! I have a hard time seeing where he plays for Twins very far forward with us being stuck with Buxton at DH - realistically, he’s there for 5 years. The miraculous CF comeback is pretty slim IMO. He has never been healthy - DHing after surgery may change that, to Julien’s detriment.
  25. JD-TWINS
    I live in Cincinnati & when they were moving Mahle & Castillo I was preaching to focus on Castillo at whatever cost…….he’s electric! Mahle was/is mentally soft, continually pitching away from contact, too many pitches & getting in trouble - then a HR. Fortunately, we can sign a 6’5” durable guy with a great track record for the same $$ - Jordan Montgomery for 5 years & $115. Not as exciting to watch as Castillo but he gets guys out & he’s durable. ($20M x 2 & $25M x 3)
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