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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    Polanco was a gamer year after year with a .270 BA through ‘21. ’22 he hit .235 and played in 104 games. ’22 he hit .256 and played like in 86 games. Performance and availability are on the decline. We have Julien/Farmer for a platoon with Lee & Martin coming. He needs to be traded to free up $$ to apply to an arm.
  2. JD-TWINS
    I like Jorge! .235 & 104 games in ‘22. .256 & 86 games in ‘23. Career gamer & .270 BA - he’s regressing due to health and he’s not the guy he once was. Farmer .255 BA in ‘23 & other than getting hit by pitch in the face, he was available all year. He’s a career .255 hitter. He’s now better at all 3 glove positions v. Polanco per metrics. $6.75M v. $10.5M………realistically, with no sentiment involved, it seems clear cut who to keep.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Castro nearly every day in CF that Buxton can’t play……..less time there as Martin comes into play in July or later. Farmer is the platoon at 2B for LH starting pitching….35 games. He spells Lewis at 3B….,,,,25 games. Lastly, he plays shortstop when CC needs a break or can’t go……..25 games. Late inning Defense at 2B a dozen times & pinch hitter another 15 times. That equates to 112 games IF nobody gets hurt at any of the 3 glove positions in the IF. If he isn’t traded, I think Gordon has a shot as the extra OF that, if in need, can play infield. Pinch runner - etc. …….the Utility Guy.
  4. JD-TWINS
    There’s 1/2 as many people here in the Cincinnati area as the Twin Cities. It’s St. Paul downtown with associated suburbs. The Castellini ownership is very frugal as well. The Lindner’s - the local equivalent to the Pohlad’s sold the club after the new stadium was named for their insurance company. The “big market Reds” was tongue in cheek, or should have been. Columbus & Indianapolis & Louisville & Lexington are all roughly 100 miles away. Minor league clubs in Indy, Louisville, & Dayton as well as Toledo. As a big Twins fan who has been here for 30 plus years, the Reds & their fans think they are the Mecca for baseball since it’s the oldest franchise. Pretty sure they have only gone over 2 million fans/yr. 2-3 times and that dates back to the Big Red Machine playing in a 56,000 seat or more, football stadium. They were in the Wildcard in September when Twins came to town and they drew maybe 18,000 per game. They spent $3-4 million more on Pagan than necessary over 2 years, no big deal. Don’t know much about Martinez but pundits seem to like his arm. However, they were playing Encarnacion-Strand at 1B & Steer/Marti at 3B, Star in LF & at 2B. Steer was voted their 2023 MVP - he’s now in LF. Strand played some 3B as well. Stephenson is the DH most of the time when he doesn’t catch. India was ROY 3 seasons ago & is their Captain and now he has no position as McClean at 2B is a lock. Why spend $15M on more depth and displace 2nd year guys with great upside & great contracts???? Assuming one or two guys will be offered in trade - they have a couple good OF on their bench in Fairchild & Fraley (?). They need a veteran pitcher to stabilize their rotation - that’s where this $15M should have been directed. This move for Cincinnati would be like the Twins paying for a FA corner IF after finding out Miranda is healed & ready to go at a high level.
  5. JD-TWINS
    From what I’ve read here and over the past months, it sounds like Canterino has got a probable spot as a 6th/7th inning guy by July or August with the Big Club. I was sour on SWR after seeing numerous posts last summer about his struggles & poor ERA but read here that over his last 12 starts his ERA was 2.92. My assumption is that’s nearly half of his starts - that’s a big step in the right direction to me. If these two guys can be part of the solution on the staff by July that would be fantastic. Not really looking for anyone else on this list to be involved in ‘24. Balazovic - Alcala - Headrick - Winder - Sands are all guys that are on the fringe of the Pen. We have our current 5 starters. Thielbar - Funderburk - Jax - Stewart - Duran are locks in the Pen out of Spring Training. Who are the 8 relievers we bring north to fill out our Pen at the end of March?………….my solution is trade Polanco for prospects and $$$ savings….. trade the prospects and Nick Gordon and E. Rodriguez and Winder to the Brewers for Devin Williams (over next 2 years & currently at $6.25M) to solidify our Pen & bring us to elite status!!
  6. JD-TWINS
    Sorry - I’m sure I must have missed this, but what’s the compensation if some Team takes a guy, claims a player, from your minor league system in the Rule 5 draft? What’s the deterrent or controlling factor in claiming guys? LMK if not too much trouble. Thanks!
  7. JD-TWINS
    Two problems - don’t think they want Polanco’s salary - don’t think we believe Jeffers should be moved? They need to have depth in CF & 2B at a low cost. They want low budget, controllable pieces. Nick Gordon and E. Rodriguez fit those needs………They probably want some potential arm(s) back to work with so Winder and Festa should work. They need catching depth and a leader on the bench with young guys, so moving Vazquez there & eating $3M per year of his salary would be reasonable. That’s 3-5 guys on their roster in ‘24 or ‘25. Do Gordon & Vazquez & Festa combined get near to “37.0” on the value scale? With Soler probably signing elsewhere, is Miranda a fit for them - at least a guy to look at in their AAA? Luzardo would be the target…..no other throw in is needed. After brief reflection, if we need to up the deal to get it to happen, we need to consider anyone other than Lee & Jenkins from our minor league system. Can we trade our draft pick at #33 or #34, received for Gray?
  8. JD-TWINS
    Nice conversation with a good young guy that’s got a big upside in our Pen!
  9. JD-TWINS
    He sure seems to have enough stuff to be on the roster for years to come. Needs to throw strikes, but his strikeout capability seems to be there. I have a bunch of confidence in this guy………hope he gets an opportunity from the jump this year!
  10. JD-TWINS
    I agree - I’ll give Miranda Spring Training to try and show something positive - have absolutely no expectations for him to be successful. To keep a spot open for him or to not add or be strategic with him not being part of the plan is trying our hands. Can’t consider Miranda a MLB plate at this point. I get he was hurt but it sure seemed deeper than that in his AB’s in ‘23.
  11. JD-TWINS
    His problem is he has no quit in him - he’s fragile - but with a reckless abandon mentality. I don’t think he has the ability to be reluctant after injury or we would have picked up on it over the past 9 years. I for one hope he is more cautious in CF & on the bases……..there’s no slowing a player down in the batter’s box………would like to see him available & effective for October!
  12. JD-TWINS
    Hoping Martin has a decent Spring & then a better April/May……..with Castro playing CF principally in the first two months, we’ll need help there by summer…….a little Buxton mixed in once or twice per week would be a really nice occurrence!
  13. JD-TWINS
    17 HR & 17 doubles in ‘23 with bad leg in 86 games………..25 HR & 25 doubles is a decent production for a guy in 120 games……if he’s at all better after surgery, this seems very attainable. Maybe not special but a real contributor and not a hole in the line-up, IMO. Honestly, I think his days as being viewed as an elite/very good CF are gone………he may only play 30-40 games there to try & maintain health.
  14. JD-TWINS
    In another post today I considered trading Kepler to free up $$ - trading Polanco to free up $$ & use those prospects or some of them & throw in a guy or two of ours in the trade for Parades. Parades, principally, at 3B & some DH. Lewis in LF & Wallner in RF. It’s a power gain overall & our OF has a RH bat with pop……..something organization may consider. The $$ saved can be used on a FA pitcher. Lugo is still out there - Wacha is still out there - with freeing up $18M in the Kepler/Polanco/Parades moves, Jordan Montgomery is now affordable at $26M for 4 years or maybe $24M for 5 years?
  15. JD-TWINS
    He’s not good enough to allocate anywhere near $20M/year. The TD had a mention of Parades from Tampa Bay potentially being available a couple days ago (seems like a pipe dream) and if he is, Twins would be way better off trading some pieces for his 31 HR’s & .840 OPS……..he can play 3B or DH or 1B & is a RH bat. Under control for 4 years and currently at $3.5M. A much better allocation of resources & way better upside than Hoskins. It will cost Rodriguez - Festa - probably a AA guy as well…..well worth it for a power bat for 4 years!!
  16. JD-TWINS
    O’Neill is the Cardinals 5th outfielder - essentially a cast-off for a team that won about 70 games - he hit .231 with 9 HR in 238 AB’s…….Teoscar Hernandez either lead the AL or was in top 3 in strikeouts - 211 K’s & 26 HR…….if Joey Gallo got as many AB’s he would hit 30 HR……….despite the pundits pushing him as a good player, he’s still not very attractive to me……., If the Guardians discard Kwan for one of those guys I’d be giddy. Clase seems to be solid as a closer - an All-Star X 2 - but he has lead the AL in saves the last 2 years & his value is probably at a career Maximum …….he blew a bunch of save opportunities this past year & went 3-9 W/L. That’s 12 games he gave up runs in and allowed them to be tied, best case, in the wins or he got behind in the losses. Somewhat volatile. Cleveland needs some offensive help from youth Infielders to supplement the two brothers at 1B & Catcher as well as the 3rd baseman. RF, as you mentioned, is a weak spot. Their pitching will bounce back with some health & their youngest guys gaining experience.
  17. JD-TWINS
    I get it & generally would be skeptical as well ……but 96 MPH is 96 - his fading into the ground (saw 3-4 strikeouts on the tube today) sinker is for real - MLB TV described his curve as “Kershaw like” - so there’s something there! O Neil can probably be signed to a minor league deal around March 28th……not the answer in any kind of trade for Twins!
  18. JD-TWINS
    His salary has little impact on the team if he hits at all. This year he had a 98 OPS+, just barely under average with 17 doubles & 17 HR in 86 games. I gotta disagree on the notion that he can’t DH …… he can’t hit if he’s hurt, period. I keep noting that his tendency is to get hurt as a high end, fragile athlete. No reason to dream about some extra healthy season v. when he was 23 - 24 - 25 - 26!! He’s not averaged 1/2 a season per season over 8 years. That said, if he plays CF for 40 games I’d be tickled. He then DH’s 80 games, as a healthy hitter, much better results. If he can play those games that’s ALL travel days off PLUS one day off per week to keep him fresh. 75% of the games in the line-up is 35 games better than ‘23, but a healthy hitter is assumed. Buxton as a .235 BA guy accidentally hits 28 HR & has 25 doubles…….a very productive guy who’s ready to go when the playoffs begin. 120 games at the plate, a more realistic bar, in my opinion.
  19. JD-TWINS
    I understand the skepticism with Kirilloff’s availability or lack of…… he did have a .793 OPS & hit .270…….hardly anything we want to undervalue at 1B. He played 88 games and was probably healthy in 65 of those…… Gotta bet on his talent over a longer season. Why would Tampa trade a guy at $3.2M that hit 31HR & had a .840 OPS? I don’t care if he can’t play defense - I’d DH him if I were them. Doesn’t make sense!! That said, he’s only a couple years older than Lee & he’s “done it” in the Show……lots of value in that!! Insurance & RH alternative to Kirilloff. Relying on Miranda v. Parades to save $2.5M over the season is crazy. His cost is same as Solano would be. Paredes is available at 3B - 1B - DH with real pop - 31HR in 500 AB’s. Worth considering IF we think there’s an ability for Lewis to play LF. If that’s an option then it’s like trading for our OF need at the highest offensive level. Also, if we keep Farmer, it allows Wallner to go to RF & ability to move both Kepler & Polanco for $$ flexibility. Lee & Lewis are also depth at 3B and lesser need at 2B. I’d seriously consider this to save $$ for pitching and adds RH power, along with youth, to the line-up. Don’t believe they trade him - keep Lee & offer other players prospects (Rodriguez/Festa/etc.)
  20. JD-TWINS
    To me, since prospects carry a “perceived value forward”, a guy like Rodriguez is very intriguing to other clubs. I think, with Lee coming in ‘24 & possibly displacing Lewis into an OF option along with Martin as specifically a CF option at some point in ‘24 …….Rodriguez spends the year in St. Paul. Jenkins is almost a certainty in ‘26 at some point in CF - right? With Martin/Castro/Buxton, even Gordon in ‘24…….through ‘25, were good in CF. Rodriguez is available with a whole bunch of upside for the acquiring team…….that’s needed to get a return the Twins want! Julien’s limited defense & principally, the DH logjam caused by Buxton, makes him top end #2 candidate to potentially get moved. Don't like sending offensive talent out of the organization but after seeing the results from the Arraez trade I have to defer to the FO for good judgement.
  21. JD-TWINS
    TWINS were 15-19 in Gray’s starts. He won a playoff game & got out of a two out jam picking a guy off 2B - other playoff outing was subpar to say the least. He’s got great stuff - his ability to get past the 6th inning is a challenge. I think we can replace his innings & Maeda’s (284 total) with a mid $$ FA (Lugo) along with Varland & Paddack. I understand not wanting to overstate things…..sounding too rah rah, but there aren’t 6-7 better pitchers in the game (based on ‘23 performances) than Lopez. He tied with Snell for 3rd place in baseball for strikeouts and he was 23rd in ERA .06 runs per 9 from 18th, in ERA. His two playoff starts were stellar! He needs to back it up this year - if he has similar stats he is truly an ACE. If one blends his ERA & K’s, he has to be a Top Ten starter. Miley signed for $8.5M - Maeda for $12M - Lugo has been projected to be wanting $12.5 - $13M…….his ERA was better than Lopez at 3.53….,a good value & affordable by just moving on from Polanco. Former reliever, so not overworked for innings at 34. Trade for somebody feasible to obtain - a reliever to clear up any confusion with Varland potentially being in the Pen. I get really aggressive with trade pieces with the Brewers, for Devin Williams! He’s a set-up guy or closer - an All-Star - under control for 2 years - $6.25M & affordable.
  22. JD-TWINS
    TEAM was 15-19 in Gray’s starts. I get he had an outstanding ERA - good for him. Maeda & Gray were 14-16 between them. 104 innings & 184 innings respectively. Varland - Paddack - & FA “ X ” (Lugo) can combine for 325 innings. A .500 record or better is pretty feasible. Again, I trade Rodriguez - Gordon - Festa & Polanco (to then trade for prospects) to Milwaukee for Devin Williams - another 55 innings. He’s under control for 2 years and affordable at $6.25M this year. Williams & a reasonable FA starter - TWINS would be golden!
  23. JD-TWINS
    Buxton at DH for 125 games is fine with me if he’s healthy enough to hit & able to run at 85% of his previous self. If he hits .235 his power (XBH) will be fine with a probability of a minimum 25 HR & 25 doubles…….fine production for 75% of the games! He had 17 HR & 17 doubles in ‘23 & played in 84 games & hit .207………25 of each this year is pretty feasible. CC really seemed himself or better in the playoffs so I have to believe he can get back to his norm of 140 games at .275BA with a little pop. Lewis is a star if he can stay on the field. Jeffers - Julien - Wallner - Kepler - Farmer - Castro - Lee - Martin - Kirilloff - Vazquez should be enough to support the “core” from July - October! Sign a FA pitcher like Lugo for an affordable $13M and with him - Varland - Paddack the Staff should be fine.
  24. JD-TWINS
    We were 14-5 against the ALCS & NLCS teams in regular season.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Agreed with most posts on some serious skepticism here on Buxton ………I would hope 50 games in CF and 75 games at DH is potentially a reality……..pushing more than this seems it would bring more risk than needed to have him ready for playoffs. Per your comments, they need to keep his legs under him to get most benefit in the batter’s box. 50 games in CF is 2 games per week, generally…….75 games at DH is another 3 games of AB’s per week. A day of rest, plus travel days off every week. Martin seems real as an option after a couple months & is not any more “iffy” than Harrison Bader or others, as you state. Some combination of Castro/Buxton/Martin would be a plus for the organization. Best $$ move. If he can just hit .235, his power and XBH will come along for the ride!
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