JD-TWINS

Giolito is signed, good. I think Twins should offer Clevinger a two year deal with the same enticing 2nd year opt-out for the player! Player gets security of a 2 year deal at a slightly lower rate but can prove himself & re-negotiate with Twins or leave after year one. $13M/year. He threw 131 innings & went 9-9 for the lowly White Sox in ‘23 with a 3.77 ERA. Don’t know why nobody is talking about him? Pablo Lopez had a 3.66 ERA.

Agree that Twins should be a favorite for Division at this point. If CC hits .265 & has 20 HR’s & 30 doubles (all very likely) along with his defense, he’s a value because he has a presence that breeds winning with the young guys…….can’t pay much for intangibles (we all agree) but it seems to have value with this younger club. If Buxton hits .235 with 25 HR & 25 doubles & is healthy for October, he’s a real value. He had 17 HR & 17 doubles in 80 starts while playing hurt 50% of the time (86 total games) in ‘23. Need him healthy for 100 - 110 starts (30-40 in CF) and all is good. Last year Twin’s payroll was 17th in baseball at $154M……..leaving $104M to spend outside of CC & Buxton. Supposedly, in ‘24, the team’s payroll will be at a ceiling of $130M, a 15.5% reduction. That’s $80M to spend on the rest of the club outside the two expensive guys ……….Mahle - Maeda - Gallo - Gray - Taylor - Solano - Pagan…….these guys add up to $45M & are all gone. If we trade Polanco, we have the team, as it sits, plus $20-$25M to spend prior to Opening Day. Doesn’t seem to be that much of an issue IF they actually spend $130M.

Completely agree on Castro in CF……he also switch hits & has a great arm! No reason to expect some 30 point regression in his batting average as is speculated on here often. Many here describe him as being needed as a “super utility” guy as he seemed to be in ‘23. Changes after 4/1/23…….Lewis is healthy and solid at 3rd…….Julien was an idea & Polanco was hurt - now Polanco should be traded & Juilen should man 2B with Farmer as THE principal depth at all 3 glove spots in the infield………..Wallner was a potential guy at some point - now he’s the everyday LF……..Lee is coming mid-summer. We need Castro in the OUTFIELD & he’s capable to play CF daily. I see him starting 80 plus games there ……Buxton maybe 35-40 games there ………..Martin or maybe Gordon taking the other 45-50 starts. Just don’t see a problem outside of Castro getting hurt. If he starts 1/2 the games in CF we have problem solved and it still leaves plenty of games for Rocco to manipulate the line-up & use his speed and defensive flexibility as he sees fit.

Dwight Evans - Roberto Clemente - Reggie Smith - Tom Brunansky - Tony Oliva…….don’t recall any of these guys shifting to CF at age 30 either. Steak & Walleye & plugging a hole in CF with a near Gold Glove right fielder??? The Twins - Baldelli, love his defense in RF. Do they wish he could flex to CF in a pinch? Sure. They have 4 other options rostered now going into Spring Training. No reason to hate on a guy for wanting to continue to play a position he’s comfortable with and has had exceptional success playing. CC isn’t moving to 3B or 2B for Brooks Lee anytime soon.

Lee - Lewis - Julien can’t all play at the same time in the infield more than 15 - 20 games in a full season. CC IS THERE. If, and I would agree, Kirilloff is best at 1B, then we piece playing time together for this group this year and Lewis moves to LF by ‘25……….or we trade Julien. Buxton isn’t going anywhere so there will be a perpetual log jam at DH……not a real good outlet for Julien. If Lewis moves to LF we have the best possible RH hitting corner OF. I see this becoming real in ‘25 with Wallner going to RF. Lee - CC - Julien - Kirilloff infield for ‘25. Lewis - Buxton/Martin - Wallner outfield for ‘25. Seems fairly probable.

Trade Sands straight up for Stuart Fairchild of the Reds. He’s their 5th OF’er with time at AAA last year. He’s Martin with experience for CF. He was kept on big club late September when Bader was released. RH hitting OF that plays mostly left field & center field. Good speed. Controllable & playing for minimum and an opportunity. Reds roster is clogged with young talent & they are probably moving Jonathan India to OF this spring. Seems like a win - win.

His WAR in ‘23, inclusive of his fine defense, was .6. Just not anything of interest for more than $2.5M. Why not just sign Taylor for similar defense - better power - similar average - continuity?………I don’t know what Bader will sign for…….another writer here had him at $10-$13M………don’t recall if that was per year or for two years? If either are correct (assuming 2 years), Taylor could be signed for same.

Taylor made $4.5M I believe, in ‘23. Castro - Buxton - Gordon - Martin have CF covered, at least until the trade deadline, at a minimum. I get defensive WAR and the need to not have a butcher in CF but it’s not like hiring a rocket scientist. We have capable guys under contract. No need to create 2 issues by moving Kepler from RF to CF. He’s a proven, effective RF - leave him there. One of 3 guys in the game that hit .300 & have over 30 XBH after the break in ‘23!!

Bad news is there’s only about 25% of starts by LH pitching - 30% on high side. Can’t see paying Bader when they already have guys that are rostered - not to potentially thrive in 40-45 games. Don’t see why Gordon or Castro can’t play CF 100 games? Gordon started about 45 games there in ‘22 and he played 2B as needed since Polanco was hurt & he played LF. Whether he can hit like he did in ‘22 again is up in the air. Really don’t see Castro struggling to match Bader’s .235 BA from either side of the plate. Hopefully, Buxton can start the 40 games v. LH pitching in CF!

Lopez - Ryan - Ober - Paddack - Varland - (New Guy) Stewart - Jax - Thielbar - Funderburk - Winder - Alcala - Duran - ……. and a combination of “whoever’s” to get us to August……….Canterino to throw 20 innings from August 15 to October 1st………..Varland to the Pen again by September 10th ……..seems like a plausible plan. Festa - Headrick - SWR to supplement rotation as needed.

Twins will possibly sign a FA starter? If not, they will definitely trade for a starter. Ryan at 160 innings is probable Ober at 145 innings is probable Lopez at 180 innings is probable Paddack at 110 innings is probable Varland at 90 innings is probable New Guy at 140 innings is probable Festa - SWR - Headrick - Winder combining for 16 starts at 5 innings, another 80 innings, is probable. That’s 905 innings from starters…….don’t think this is blue sky whatsoever……….seems once team picks up a guy they are set!

Sorry, I realize you aren’t the only guy suggesting Harrison Bader as a decent option for the club. He’s a Free Agent who was released & he’s 29. That should tell everyone something. He’s terrible!! His WAR last year was .6. In ‘23 Bader had 331 AB’s and had 7 HR & 21 total Extra Base Hits. Buxton was playing hurt at least 50% of the time that he played in ‘23 and in 304 AB’s he had a .8 WAR, playing zero defense AND he had 17 HR & 36 total Extra Base Hits. We have plenty of guys that may or may not be able to hit that can catch fly balls in CF. Harrison Bader is not the answer. Castro - Buxton - Gordon - Martin…….to me that’s what we roll with in ‘23.

The reason is, the Team is stuck. Nobody’s trading for Buxton. Buxton’s not approving a trade to any team. Period. Buxton has averaged less than 70 games per year for 9 years. He has one season over 100 games. Starting him everyday until he can’t go due to injury isn’t very bright! They are paying him and his bat, when healthy, can be of benefit. 40 games in CF & 80 games at DH gives the team 50 more games than his career average and it gives him. chance to hit 25-30 HR……25-30 doubles. Those numbers are of value over 75% of the team’s games. He had 17 of each in ‘23 playing in 86 total games - 6 or more of those games were him pinch hitting. At least half of the games he played in he was hurt. Playing him in limited games in CF may allow the team to have him available and healthy in October.

RH hitting 5 tool guys & 2 MLB quality starters are big asks with an organization spending considerably less in ‘24. They need to move Polanco’s salary and his inconsistent availability over the past two seasons. With Kepler & Wallner in the corner spots against RH pitching (75% of games) the need for a big addition RH bat seems unnecessary to me. Team’s performance v. LH pitching went up considerably in 2nd half last year. With CC’s health better, Buxton’s health better, Miranda’s health better, Jeffers starting in 25 more games, it seems the RH bats are in the line-up and competent enough to allow the team to focus on pitching help. (Farmer - Lewis - Lee - Severino - Martin are all part of the RH potential in the line-up) Sign Clevinger for $13M/yr for 2 years with a player option in the 2nd year. Trade 3-4 guys to Milwaukee for Devin Williams. Pitching staff would be considered elite with these 2 additions at less than $20M total per year for next 2 years. After Polanco is moved it only changes Payroll by $9M from wher it is at today.

Sounds a lot like Mr Buxton.

180 innings is an awfully tall order for a guy that had 10 starts in the Show last year. That’s a Pablo Lopez like total. Even, best case, I can’t imagine him getting more than 130 innings as part of the back end of the rotation revolving through the 4th & 5th spots in the rotation. He seems to be an obvious guy to transition to the Pen for mid-inning appearances in October. To keep his & Paddack & Ober’s innings under control, Twins need to sign or trade for that new guy in the rotation. Am assuming Woods-Richardson sees 5 starts & Festa for a handful as well after the 1st of July into September.

Lewis - .285 BA…… .350 OBP …… 30HR Julien - .255 BA ……. .350 OBP …… 22 HR Wallner - .240 BA …… .320 OBP ……. 32 HR My hopeful results for our young trio in ‘24 - also hoping these results are based on them being able to collect 525 AB’s or more, each. Somewhat lofty expectations in Sophomore seasons for these guys but with nearly twice the PA’s for trio (about 600 PA each) the BA & OBP will be there but not in extremes……seems they are all talented enough to reach these HR expectations.

One of the reasons guys don’t play 150 games anymore, or even 140……….Jorge Polanco ‘22 - 108 games…….’23 - 86 games……Career .270 hitter & in ‘22 - .235 BA ……..in ‘23 - .256 BA. Playing through injuries can lead to breakdowns and regression in numbers. I don’t have a crystal ball and am always happy to see steady, familiar faces in the line-up. Enjoyed watching Jorge. Just pointing out he “played hurt” some & it appears to have caught up to him over past 2 seasons. Lewis: 130-135 games ……4AB’s x 135 games = 540 AB’s for year or maybe 620 PA’s…..seems reasonable? 30 HR would be fantastic - RBI take care of themselves depending upon spot in line-up & if he hits .285 I’ll be happy!……….trying to keep an OBP of .350 or better would be assumed.

Let’s break the mold in ‘24 and sign a FA that can get guys out….gonna cost some $$!! Mike Clevinger costs us no trade assets, which brings value to the organization, and he pitched 131 innings last year……..3.77 ERA, about 27th in Baseball……..9-9 with a brutal White Sox club………..$26M for two years and a player option for year two would be a great motivator for him!

REDS aren’t trading Ashcraft. His ERA was inflated to 6.50 or so early……..he had a stretch of really good starts before & Ftrr his calf injury. I live in Cincinnati and have seen Ashcraft pitch half-dozen times…….the Team & the Fans love him Not really sure why the Twins would be attracted? The REDS need a left handed outfield bat like they need a hole in the head. Fraley or Benson will have to sit & both are solid performers! Better than Larnach and comparable to Wallner offensively (good, but less power). Steer will be in LF essentially every day and Friedl will be in CF 140 games! There’s no match here. Reds covet pitchers after last year’s revolving staff due to injury. ………………. A guy I’d like to see the Twins trade for (I suggested in June of ‘23 a few times) is Stuart Fairchild. Good outfielder! RH bat. Controllable and inexpensive going forward………..Sands for Fairchild straight up! Fairchild can play all 3 OF spots - he would be a better option for outfield depth than Gordon & I’m a Gordon fan! RH bat and he can steal some bases - generally good speed. Good compliment to Wallner - Kepler - Castro - Buxton - Larnach………he’s what we hope Martín could do in OF this year but he has parts of 3 years of experience. 16 doubles in just over 200 PA’s in 2023. He needs a chance to play & Cincinnati is clogged with Steer going to OF essentially every day now. Noveli - McClean - India (may move to OF per organization) - De La Cruz - Enc. Strand - Candelario are all ahead of Steer in the infield, just because they can’t play OF. Steer will be in the line-up nearly every day …….he was voted their ‘23 MVP. Getting pitching FROM Cincinnati is a dead end.

So, IMO, everyone through the first 10 comments is shooting too high. (I doubt many teams have an average of 2 guys that play 140 games/year) Buxton has averaged less than 70 games per year over 9 seasons. This is the history of his TWENTIES! If he can play 120 games, that’s 1.5 game days off per week, and obviously all the travel days off as well - that would be a great high end goal. (1 day off week one - 2 days off week two & so on) 30-40 games in CF and 80-90 games at DH. Buxton’s complaints about DHing are due to frustration to not be able to help the team if he’s not hitting - suck it up and deal with it - need to contribute at the plate, principally! He didn’t perform well last year at DH because he was hurt essentially all year. Nobody hits well without their legs under them. He had 17 HR & 17 doubles in 86 games (a few of those were games as a pinch hitter) and he was hurt. He hits 25 of each easily in 110-120 games, if generally healthy. Twins have plenty of options to catch fly balls in CF - maybe not as exciting but “exciting” doesn’t get the club into the playoffs. They need Buxton healthy and available to play wherever needed in October!

It’s all about trying to be efficient - K’s are up everywhere in baseball & have been for years and nearly in every instance, power guys strike out much more. The Twins problem in ‘23 was an imbalance in HR’s per K with certain individuals. OBP .301 - Gallo - 21 HR - 142 K’s - 6.76K per HR .369 - Jeffers - 14 HR - 93 K’s - 6.64K per HR .370 - Wallner - 14 HR - 80 K’s - 5.72K per HR .280 - Vazquez - 6 HR - 82 K’s - 13.66K per HR .381 - Julien - 16 HR - 128 K’s - 8.00K per HR .332 - Kepler - 24 HR - 106 K’s - 4.42 per HR .335 - Polanco - 14 HR - 88 K’s - 6.29 per HR .294 - Buxton - 17 HR - 108 K’s - 6.41 per HR .312 - Correa - 18 HR - 131 K’s - 7.28 per HR .278 - Taylor - 21 HR - 130 K’s - 6.19 per HR .372 - Lewis - 15 HR - 55 K’s - 3.67 per HR .369 - Solano - 5 HR - 100 K’s - 20.00 per HR .339 - Castro - 9 HR - 99 K’s - 10.00 per HR .348 - Kirilloff - 11 HR - 80 K’s - 7.27 per HR .317 - Farmer - 11 HR - 86 K’s - 7.82 per HR Threshold (the floor) for these levels are arbitrary……I think a minimum acceptable level for a good player is an OBP of .330. With no defense involved, it’s interesting that it seems Taylor, despite 21 HR should not be pursued at all! Obviously, Gallo should not be pursued. If there’s a possibility to move Vazquez, even at $3-$4M/yr cost he’s not someone to be carried on a roster, offensively. Farmer has reasonable strikeout/HR ratio & his defense keeps him in play. OBP is subpar. Correa needed 2-3 more HR & 10 more hits/walks and he would have had an acceptable regular season. Julien strikes out too much. His OBP saves him……his defense does not add to his value. Wallner is a bright spot in OBP & power! Lewis jumps off the page as a budding star!! Should not consider trading Kepler, even if he didn’t play sound defense!!! Solano has to be scrutinized due to zero power and limited defense. Inexpensive & solid OBP. Borderline. Castro’s defensive flexibility lifts him off the borderline status. Just a different view that picked up momentum as I went - interesting to ponder?

The commentary here reminds me of The Big Chill, when William Hurt chuckles to his friends after stirring a bunch of stuff up and says, “just trying to keep the conversation lively.” Aquire 2 or 3 starters. - trade for a starter but don’t give up on any youth - get a right handed bat (Hoskins maybe, probably too expensive)…..,.,,.(Soler would be good though) bad news is Soler probably costs more than Hoskins and all he does is DH, which we have no need for with our 3-4 potential DH candidates…….nobody else in the game wants to pay Vazquez $20M for next two years either……if we send $8M in cash along with him, he may be able to be moved. Does it make sense to trade the 4th best defensive catcher in the AL? What if Jeffers breaks another finger? That said, if we can move Vazquez - OK. Our internal options for line-up are fine as of today……….am assuming Polanco gets traded due to declining performance - declining availability - Twins need to decline the payroll. Pitching: No problem trying to trade for a “top end guy” but we have to give up prospects or controllable players! Julien - Winder - Sands - E. Rodríguez - Festa……….if that doesn’t work (relatively slim) then move to a solid reliever for tempered trade assets from Twins. I see your list of FA arms………for context on my choice for FA signing, I’ll add a couple stats for comparison sake. Luzardo #18 in ERA - 3.58……..our Pablo #23 in ERA - 3.66……..L. Gilbert, the Mariner stud, 25th in ERA - 3.73. FA - Mike Clevinger pitched a couple times at end of ‘22 after arm surgery…….threw 131 innings last season & went 9-9 with the lowly White Sox……..3.77 ERA. Sign him! If we can move Polanco & Vazquez, I’d forget Clevinger & make a run at J. Montgomery for $26M/year & 5 years. Make the last 2 years player option so he feels some power if his performance is high end.

I was really down on Miranda & had/have little confidence in a bounce back, HOWEVER, to be fair it seems he was hurt longer & more seriously than anyone realized (or I realized) last summer. I can’t protect Kirilloff here every week and not get behind giving Miranda a chance. Julien is not at his peak trade value! He’s at “the peak” of his career at 24 or 25, whatever he is. He’s getting better & will continue to get better to some ceiling, on defense. Let me throw out this scenario relative to value…….what if he’s hitting .275 & has an OBP of .360 going into July? He is then a proven MLB probable star ……….Martin &/or Lee are ripping the cover off the ball for two months. We have an opportunity to bring up one or both guys that can play infield & trade Julien to a more desperate club in a race, NEW peak! Does anyone really think he’ll be hitting sub .250 with an OBP of less than .330 by July? If not we didn’t screw up by keeping him. I don’t have a problem moving the guy with the potential we have coming & the depth we currently have at 2B. Saying he’s at his peak trade value to rationalize trading him is a real stretch.

I’m not trading with Guardians - Mariners - Blue Jays any veteran guys with potential upside that could bite us in the rear in the near-term playoffs. Kepler - Polanco aren’t going to up & coming league rivals if I run the organization. Prospects - OK.