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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    Could sign Clevinger & if they were fortunate enough to pull off a TRADE for another arm, they could have high leverage at the deadline to add a key bat by trading a starter……,lots has to fall right but signing a FA arm shouldn’t stop the pursuit of a trade for starter in the near term. I still covet the potential Polanco trade, maybe with a guy, for a prospect or a reasonable reliever - Vazquez trade (Twins cover $3.5M of salary) this offseason - moving on from Kepler by ‘25. This saves $17M in ‘24 & $27M in ‘25 from the existing Payroll number. Sign J. Montgomery for $26M per year for 5 years with player option in years 4 & 5. Security & independence for the player……..Twins retain all their trade assets/prospects.
  2. JD-TWINS
    Great analysis on Gilbert & extension value - too, “in the weeds” for me to consider his fit v. others though. I could see trading nearly any of the guys available for a top half of rotation starter - so anyone but the following: None of the existing top 4 starters…….Duran ……Buxton - CC - Lewis - Lee - Jenkins. So, outside of these 10 guys, all others are available to be traded to upgrade staff. I think, for the $$ spent and reduction of trade capital, we should push hard to get Devin Williams from the Brewers to make our Pen elite. He can help us with a positive impact in 45-55 games this year & next year. There are enough veteran & prospect guys left on list to pull this trade off. Twins goes with the existing Staff & use Festa & SWR & if needed, Headrick to help get to the deadline. If they still need help they can get a guy in trade from one of the 8-10 teams that will have given up by then. LEAST EXPENSIVE, best depth move is solidifying the Pen with a difference maker. I’d prefer to keep young trade assets and move Polanco for prospect & $$ to be able to sign Clevinger for $14-$15M on a short deal. This seems a way to reduce risk of losing a star in trade (for a few months) and get a reasonable depth arm for a year or two. Could sign Clevinger and continue to pursue a starter in trade. If both work out, possibly Varland to the Pen sooner than later?
  3. JD-TWINS
    I’m thinking less Sleeping Giant & more Pleasant Surprise……anything positive would be fantastic for him & the Club.
  4. JD-TWINS
    There are 13 position players out of the 26 man roster. 5 starters - 8 guys in the Pen. I agree with a status quo line-up from ‘23 to start the year……..with Castro in CF & with Buxton at DH. Vazquez - Farmer - Miranda - Gordon or Martin makes up the bench…….Gordon (probably “no option” Gordon) or Martin play the role of 3rd CF, also available for 2B if there are some late inning moves. Don't think Polanco will still be on the roster in March.
  5. JD-TWINS
    Agreed, that’s where Twins are at & a pitcher should be top priority. BIG if with Miranda IMO. He & Gordon are both a roll of the dice starting in about 5 weeks. Just had a thought worth throwing out for consideration. They give Miranda a shot and he doesn’t cut it early……….can we carry a third catcher and play Vazquez/Jeffers as our RH platoon against Kiriloff at 1B until either Severino shows real promise or we grab somebody at the deadline.
  6. JD-TWINS
    Only carry 14 position players in playoffs……13 position players through the year for a while during the season. 13 guys for line-up & 13 arms…….5 starters & 8 guys in the Pen. The infield you site is popular but I’ve pushed back every time I see it shown. There is no practical RH bat at 1B. Farmer is the depth guy at SS - 2B -3B. People say “he can play 1B…..” how many games did he play there last year? Polanco needs to be moved. Miranda is the obvious add to the IF…..if he can’t hit in Spring Training they will be scrambling! Gordon & Martin will compete over the OF need. If they are near similar offensively, Gordon gets the nod to start season because he’s out of options. He makes the team or gets traded or gets released. Polanco & Larnach &/or Gordon need to be moved.
  7. JD-TWINS
    Clevinger was exonerated - at least in the Press I saw. 15 people interviewed by MLB - zero discipline. Sounded like a past female scorned…….that’s what I read. No criminal stuff. Always proclaimed innocence. Not excusing anything done out of bounds but he’s pitched both years since coming back from surgery….,I don’t know that he’s any sort of problem other than maybe wanting too much $$ or too many years? Urias - disciplined last year - not sure where that’s at? Bauer got the death penalty, essentially - 360 games approximately, reduced to 190 games approximately. He’s apologized & is still way on the outside looking in…….
  8. JD-TWINS
    Honest question here (pertinent since it allows team to keep both Julien & Lee), why would the Twins not sign Mike Clevinger to a 2year deal for $14.5M/year - year 2 is player option?? Security & flexibility for player. Twins get experience and talent………131 innings & 3.77 ERA in ‘23. Move Polanco and Clevinger is really affordable. Thoughts?
  9. JD-TWINS
    If you perceive Jeffers as not that much of a valuable contributor, a weak link in our pursuit of a Championship, why would some other team make a wonderful trade with Twins for him? He’s a high value, coveted guy, or not. I don’t disagree on Lee’s upside but he doesn’t have a hit in the Show. The minor leagues are full of exciting players with All-star POTENTIAL. I’d trade Julien before any of the other guys Twins hold in high esteem (Lee - Lewis - Jenkins) but he’s had success v. MLB pitching with high OBP & POWER (not sited often enough) & an improving defensive profile. I don’t trade any guy that’s had above average success in the Show - with his best years ahead!! Polanco - Vazquez - Farmer - Kepler, in that order are all guys that have had success that can be blended with prospects with potential for some return on the Staff. IMO.
  10. JD-TWINS
    Mirroring hitterscount topics: In reality the Twins are covering the 1B needs with Kirilloff’s expected health & Miranda’s ability to bounce back. Fingers crossed!! This is their version of addressing the situation. Just like last year they anticipated replacing Urshella with Lewis. No trade or acquisition for a 1B necessary. Apparently, they believe the other RH bats at 1B at AAA can be a reasonable alternative to Miranda if he’s a disaster. Same situation in CF. Buxton didn’t start a game there last year. In his absence in ‘24, they will be replacing the contributions of Michael Taylor from ‘23. A challenge but again, filled from within. Need to solve the pitching depth hole!…….it’s possible, with an internal option or two, they may wait until July to see if they need to trade for a rental?? Don’t like it but it’s possible.
  11. JD-TWINS
    Should Twins trade Julien or Lee or neither……..maybe Polanco or Farmer……all discussed in the most feverish amount of total responses I recall over past couple years I’ve followed the TD site. Only real news from last 2 weeks. Get better!
  12. JD-TWINS
    Longevity is the only possible strike for Mauer but it seems he’s overcoming that in the early vote. His stats glow compared to others at his position as you point out. There is one other catcher prior to Lombardi in 1926 to win the batting title. Mauer has 3 of the 7……pretty good. 100% on the Gordon situation.
  13. JD-TWINS
    I really like Montgomery & I’ve said more than once here I wanted Luzardo for Arraez…….I think we hit the Pot of Gold with Lopez though - no regrets!! I don’t think a guy that isn’t intuitive in anything he does on the defensive side can just be moved around. Displacing Kirilloff at 1B & in the line-up doesn’t help. The Twins people and some TD writers have said Lee grades out as a better defender at 3B than Lewis. Lee played CF in the Show and I realize he got hurt out on the grass. If you think Julien has a chance in LF, then you know Lewis can handle it easily. 2024 line-up: Julien 2B - Buxton DH - Kirilloff 1B - Lewis 3B - Kepler RF - CC SS - Wallner LF - Jeffers C - Castro CF 2025 line-up: Julien 2B - Buxton DH - Kirilloff 1B - Lewis LF - Lee 3B - CC SS - Wallner RF - Jeffers C - Martin CF Reasonable?
  14. JD-TWINS
    I don’t disagree - however, would really like to see Lee & Julien in our infield & Lewis in LF for a whole bunch of years. What if we just figure out a way to shed Vazquez (contribute $3.5M to his annual salary? …..add a mild AA prospect?) & Polanco. That’s $17M saved this year. Trade Kepler at deadline or extend & trade prior to ‘25. That’s a total payroll reduction of $27M in ‘25. If Martin or Lee can play depth roll at SS they could keep Vazquez & move both Polanco & Farmer in the near term. Sign J. Montgomery for 5 years at $26M/yr. with a 4th & 5th year player option. Gives him security and also feeds his ego…….he can leave after 3 years if he’s been fantastic. Great opportunity to keep offense upside intact and get a Top Line pitcher with experience and great track record. Understood - not easily done with Montgomery.
  15. JD-TWINS
    The potential of getting a starter with the floor of Pablo Lopez is nearly impossible. I watched the “Top 10 pitcher” special on MLB network earlier this week & Lopez was in Top 10 of all starters for ‘24 on 2 of the 6 lists. One list was computer driven and other 5 from pundits like Brian Kenny & Ron Darling. XWOBA (likelihood of someone getting on base) for 2023 - López had the BEST in baseball! …….#1…….. We should shoot high but thinking Polanco or nearly anyone on our roster is worth a Top 10 pitcher is a BIG reach. My choice of Farmer over Polanco isn’t $$ based (it’s a minor plus) it’s because he’s a serviceable SS if needed and better than Jorge at 3B & 2B…………and MOST of all, he’s durable & available. Polanco’s talent on the IL doesn’t add anything. Am assuming we aren’t trading a starter from the current staff…..,,,, Twins cannot move Lewis - CC - Buxton - Lee - Jenkins - Duran either because of ability or contract. From the remaining pool of players in the organization Twins need to blend at least 3 guys to get a top line pitcher in trade, maybe 4 total - IMO. IF, we can get payroll flexibility by moving Polanco & maybe Vazquez (kick in $3M/year to other club) & then sign a FA pitcher………..this should be pursued!!
  16. JD-TWINS
    Through late summer of ‘23 the internal sentiment seemed to be that Lee projects better at 3B than 2B. Obviously, SS is clogged for another 2-5 years. If Lee slots at 3B later this summer or in ‘25 I’m all for Julien staying at 2B & Lewis displacing Wallner in LF. He’s the RH corner OF they “need” and Wallner fits in RF in ‘25.
  17. JD-TWINS
    Polanco played 80 games in ‘23…….guessing here but am thinking 5-10 at DH & 10 at 3B - close? 60 starts below average at 2B blended with 3 previous years of defense at 2B can get the whole to be average. Physically, he’s creeping up on being washed.
  18. JD-TWINS
    It says “blah defense”………..”attitude” was a separate comment. I don’t hate the guy but he appears cocky to me. Light on the hustle to first on ground balls - striking out looking and appearing (as many guys) that there was no way it was a strike……….attitude aside, I too had the Central Theme of, we shouldn’t trade either guy. Good OBP - good pop - good offensive value……those were my comments on Julien. “Farmer ragging him all season….” know nothing & have heard nothing about this…..,,many rookies have to put up with B.S., particularly if you can’t field your position.
  19. JD-TWINS
    Gotta link with a team that sees value with Polanco as a 2B for 75 games (maybe with a team developing a RH young 2B?) - 3B for 5 games if needed - 50 games as a DH. As well, he needs to be lumped with a Festa - E. Rodriguez combination to net a decent arm. Probably very slim things work for an arm but he’s netting nothing of near-term value by himself!
  20. JD-TWINS
    Not personal…….. I don’t get the affinity with Polanco with nearly every contributor here?? Mostly sentimentality? He’s played 55% of the games the past 2 years. His defense at 2B in ‘23 has been equated to comparable of Julien’s. Siting performance results from more than past 2 seasons, to me, isn’t very logical. One could argue nearly every player that’s had some success at one point will probably have success in ‘23 because we want it to be true. Farmer is rated better defensively than Polanco at all 3 glove positions in the infield. He has hit is career BA the past 2 years at .255. Polanco is a career .270 hitter with the past 2 seasons being .235 & .255. Farmer missed approximately a month in 2023 because he got hit in the face by a pitch - otherwise, available every day! $6.5M v. $10.5M OPS - HR pop - other offensive benefits don’t translate if one is on the IL. Seems to me that Twins have Julien - Farmer - Gordon - Castro - Martin all available to do some work at 2B going into Spring Training, with Julien getting 70% or more of starts in season. Lee coming mid-summer to add depth at 3B &/or 2B. Why they wouldn’t move Polanco while he has some value & when they need payroll flexibility? Not doing this doesn’t make sense to me. If they keep Polanco & don’t trade Farmer of Kepler - what’s the 13 man every day roster April 1st?
  21. JD-TWINS
    I’ve been on the trade Julien’s blah defense, attitude, & strikeouts & keep Lee train…….thinking lately about the # of HR’s - high OBP - improving defense and think they probably need to keep Julien! That said, I can’t get behind trading Lee either. Cop out here but they both seem to have good value and are low $$ for years to come. Not trying to be outside the box with some fantasy approach but it seems since we need a RH hitting Corner OF with pop and Lee potentially grades out well at 3B - they should leave Julien/Farmer at 2B for this year & Julien/Martin after ‘24 & move Lewis to LF - Wallner to RF - Lee at 3B. Seems to solve the OF dilemma - the Lee/Julien dilemma - should they hang on to Keppler going forward dilemma. Martin (fingers crossed) develops into a parallel guy to Castro with OF/IF capabilities.
  22. JD-TWINS
    I’ve been on the trade Julien’s blah defense, attitude, & strikeouts & keep Lee train…….thinking lately about the # of HR’s - high OBP - improving defense and think they probably need to keep Julien! That said, I can’t get behind trading Lee either. Cop out here but they both seem to have good value and are low $$ for years to come. Not trying to be outside the box with some fantasy approach but it seems since we need a RH hitting Corner OF with pop and Lee potentially grades out well at 3B - they should leave Julien/Farmer at 2B for this year & Julien/Martin after ‘24 & move Lewis to LF - Wallner to RF - Lee at 3B. Seems to solve the OF dilemma - the Lee/Julien dilemma - should they hang on to Keppler going forward dilemma. Martin (fingers crossed) develops into a parallel guy to Castro with OF/IF capabilities.
  23. JD-TWINS
    I value Max……wanted to lynch him last June & was writing apologies by the end of August. Love his defense! His last 85 games in 2023 were fantastic at the plate! $$ common sense for the Twins organization has to be part of the equation. History & current press releases are what the budget/payroll is built around, not the Pohlad’s family wealth. See if Kepler performs at a reasonable level through May &, if so, offer to extend him for a couple years at $15M/year. If he doesn’t extend, Wallner at a 2023 WAR of 2.2 & 14 HR’s in less than half as many AB’s than Kepler is a reasonable replacement in RF. Lee comes in to play 3B & Lewis moves to LF coming off a 2023 WAR of 2.4 & 15 HR’s in exactly 50% as many AB’s as Kepler. Kepler is traded prior to deadline.
  24. JD-TWINS
    I like Lewis to LF & Lee to 3B by start of ‘25 at latest. I would move Polanco ASAP, potentially with another couple guys for an arm……….worst case for prospect to loosen up $10.5M for ‘23 payroll. Kepler has to get a shot at RF - if he’s reasonable through May/June he should get an extension offer. If he’s OK but there are guys pushing their way up to the Show, he gets moved by the deadline.
  25. JD-TWINS
    2023 Offensive Teoscar: 625 AB’s - 211 Strikeouts - .258 BA - 26 HR - .305 OBP - 106 OPS+ ………2.1 WAR 2023 Offensive Max: 434 AB’s - 106 Strikeouts - .260 BA - 24 HR - .332 OBP - 121 OPS+ ………..2.9 WAR I don’t think either guy is worth $20-$22M/year. The Dodgers are creatively paying $15M this year and an $8.5M retirement bonus through the ‘30’s. To me, Teoscar is way overrated! Not great D & 211 K’s with 2 more HR than Kepler in nearly 200 more AB’s…….doesn’t seem like a very effective masher when viewed in big picture……….in ‘23 GALLO had 21 HR in 282 AB’s & plays a much better OF than Teoscar. Joey’s worth about $1M per year. Twins will never offer Max a QO that could be accepted at $20-$22M/year……..Wallner - Rodriguez - etc. will be the more prudent option in RF. IMO, If he’s playing well at the break & team’s OF depth is thin, they may make him an offer to extend………if OF depth is present in July, they’ll trade him to better the team & to get some return.
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