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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    Starting pitching is a draw & w/o Varland in the mix, it’s pretty positive. I get you are commenting on just the information shown, strictly. The bettering of all aspects probably isn’t realistic. They got to 8 games over .500 with these circumstances. Correa being out for most of 3 weeks hurt the SS rating - pretty solid there as well. Kepler was out for 16-17 days and it turned out to be a blessing going from 1-20 start to super HOT! RF seems solid as well going forward. Lewis out is obviously a problem at 3B. Relievers have not had great health - they will be up & down but I still think this will be a positive in another 3-4 weeks as guys get healthy. Left Field is an issue! Larnach has stabilized the DH spot v. RH pitching……..consistency going forward?
  2. JD-TWINS
    Well, Eddie looks really ugly as he tries to lead the League in backward K’s! His K% has come down to 34 plus% from 40% a couple weeks ago. He needs to get his BA to .250 in next 4-5 weeks. His OBP would get to the very effective .350 level at that point. I’ll say it, the good news is we traded Polanco. He’s actually leading the League in strikeouts with 53. He’s hitting .192. He’s headed to the IL today with hamstring tightness. Sorry, I get the sentimental attachment, but it was clear he was a high risk guy with injury and at the start of declining production. If Topa ever pitches it’s still a positive move. Stewart - Topa coming back in June should bump up our Pen performance for 2nd qtr. Not having Varland in rotation should help those stats 2nd qtr. as well……..Gray has been great in St. Louis until last outing with 6 runs in 5 innings……Maeda is hurt and has 6.75 ERA. I think we’ll improve at 3B - LF - 2B - 1B in 2nd qtr. Royce will be back in 4 weeks - Wallner won’t be allowed to wallow for 4 weeks with no production - Eddie will be better and so will Farmer (gotta be) - Santana has leveled & Kirilloff has to have bottomed out. I think the off season moves will start to pay off as we go forward through June.
  3. JD-TWINS
    That is correct. The conspiracy theory against Alcala seems a bit silly to me. He walked guys early and worked out of it - hence Rocco’s talk about specific things to work on…….I’m sure this is & has been a point of emphasis with the whole Pen & particularly Alcala. His last outing , the multi inning use was twofold reasoning. First, the Pen was burned and nobody left to throw. Second, he needs to get outs - period. If he gets screwed on a call or somebody kicks the ball, he needs to bounce back & perform. His lack of effectiveness lead to the extended outing and large number of pitches. It was unfortunate series of events but Alcala needs to carry most of the responsibility.
  4. JD-TWINS
    I really don’t expect to see Stewart until early, mid-June. 15 day IL & then re-evaluate and then a couple week ramp up after cleared to make sure he’s good to go. Topa is icing on the cake at this point. Disappointing but that’s probably realistic. Broad thoughts on PEN: Alcala - Staumont - Jensen - Henriquez will be filling the last 2 spots as they have options. Duran - Jax - Funderburk - Sands - Okert - Thielbar - Jackson are the core for short-term. Stewart - Topa in June?? If SWR can hold up I could see him being the optional #4 Starter in October. Paddack & Varland part of a 9 man Pen in the Playoffs.
  5. JD-TWINS
    Flared up then, it’s been a recurring issue with his knee. Held up well in ‘23.
  6. JD-TWINS
    What does this mean? What player are you describing? ………what’s the contrast between Santana & Miranda in ‘22? If Miranda is considered a “good 1B option” why does he not get innings there (a week ago or prior) over a poorly hitting Santana, while he’s hitting near .300?
  7. JD-TWINS
    Jeffers - saw an approach analysis on him about a week ago on MLB TV morning show. DeRosa had his swing v. last year (very similar) as well as his swing this year v. his starkly different approach with 2 strikes. With 2 strikes he spreads out prior to the pitch in his initial stance - he picks up the front foot and almost immediately replaces it in the ground - very quiet lower body. He’s choked up about an inch & a half with two strikes as well. I pointed out last week here that his average was higher with 2 strikes and his power is essentially the same. Quick, compact swing to the ball. Working great and it seems like the most simple & intuitively logical approach one could use. I suggested he scrap his “prior to 2 strike” approach. Whole team should study and adopt some variation on his theme. Particularly Mr Kirilloff!!! Been a fan of Alex for 3 years but he doesn’t change a thing with 2 strikes and his numbers make that painfully obvious!
  8. JD-TWINS
    Completely accurate - it also takes longer to forget about a bad outing when a guy does pitch well only one inning at a time. Good outings are EXPECTED from relievers at a near 100% rate. They can’t make mistakes and recover in same outing very often. Because they only face 2-6 guys it seems they should just get guys out!! Thielbar will be better in 3 or 4 of his next 5 outings………Sands, when used a bit more judiciously, will again get outs. Jax was in a game a week ago and he loaded the bases with no outs and then got out of it with only one run……a victory of sorts. At the time most were critical. If Joe Ryan does that in the first inning he’s completely absolved. Relievers have a tough job - much of it, due to their frequency of use, is between their ears!! Gotta be confident and mentally tough!
  9. JD-TWINS
    Just an aside on runs in ‘24 …….since April 27th the Twins have scored 16 - 11 - 10 - 10 - 11 in 5 of those 15 games. They had 8 in a loss on Saturday. That’s 64 runs over 6 games. That’s skewing things a bit, with a relatively small sample size, is my assumption.
  10. JD-TWINS
    Ober has got to be Top 10 pitcher in the game since his first start. He’s 4-0 with a WHIP, including that first game, of .884. He’s got a K% of 9.4/9 innings. His ERA since then, over 7 starts, is 2.16. He’s been outstanding!
  11. JD-TWINS
    You gotta be kidding me - Miranda is a slightly better than average at 1B?? Let’s see anything backing that up. My comment about Santana is obviously instinct & ability based - historical performance based. Never thought he was a speedster……….his sprint speed has zero to do with taking command as appropriate on foul & fair balls around the infield…….making plays on throws at 1B.
  12. JD-TWINS
    Jackson - I agree, generally. His ERA was 6.00 - then after 2-3 outings it was 3.90 & now 2 poor outings later he’s DFA material. Back over 6.00. They are paying him regardless so my assumption is he’ll have some runway ……..remember Emilio?
  13. JD-TWINS
    Some guys are significantly better - i.e. Jeffers as shown by bean5032…..some guys improving in this year already, i.e. Julien at 34.5% down from 40% a couple weeks ago!! No Michael A.Taylor - No Joey Gallo ……Vazquez & Farmer will slowly get better. I think Santana will get a couple % lower over time? Correa seems much more competent at the plate in ‘24! I think it’s less individual approach (Jeffers withstanding) and more about a better constructed roster. Good slow change seems to be happening.
  14. JD-TWINS
    100% …….have said before the streak, and again Friday…….there was no switch flipped!! The coaching staff doesn’t deserve an award for the past 3 weeks success any more than they deserve blame for the previous 3 weeks of ineptitude. The “approach” has been to barrel up the ball. Hitting 101. If a guy is pounding low pitches into the ground OR swinging through high fastballs OR flailing at sliders off the plate, adjustments are discussed. Looking for better bat plane or moving in the box a bit or shortening stride are adjustments discussed if a guy is scuffling. There’s no BROAD philosophy that works across the group. Hitters are individuals. Kirilloff, it was suggested here, was “ignoring the coaching” early in April and lining the ball all over…...that’s why he was succeeding as an island. Hitting coach & probably Baldelli needed to be fired!! …….. Since then….,April 20ish, he’s declined steadily and half dozen other guys have thrived. Doesn’t really make sense that it’s a coaching thing! Players play and it’s their responsibility. It’s silly to think the “philosophy changed” 3 weeks ago!!!! Your stats illustrate the value of hitting the ball in the air (particularly if it’s a line drive) and the fruits that come with being 2 homers out of 6th place in MLB…..we have one game less played, and are currently tied at 11th. Batting Average is up 45 points since the streak started, from .195…..,with the same hitting coach!………there will be individual slumps as well as surges to come…….it’s baseball.
  15. JD-TWINS
    The biggest thing with Santana, outside the jump in power, is his defense. He’s made a couple relatively simple plays turn into errors (pick-off throw for one) but he catches everything in the dirt or one hopped to first. His range on foul balls seems endless (home to half-way to the RF wall) as well as being aggressive on anything in the air. Caught a couple line drives recently as well. My point is he’s making plays that I don’t think we can assume Miranda would make at the same % rate. He brings value with this defense!!
  16. JD-TWINS
    Nobody else left - had to throw 2nd inning.
  17. JD-TWINS
    SWR - 5 runs in 4 1/3 has some responsibility as well! Sands not stellar! Okert - Jackson - Thielbar were ALL sub par!!! Alcala back in 5 days - Stewart in 3 weeks - Topa in June. Gotta hold it together in short-term. It’s a loss - tough to watch and worse for position guys to get behind - but just a single loss. Funderburk - Jax - Duran - Sands can get a bunch of outs…….Staumont has some value. Thielbar will contribute - really bad day. Okert & Jackson are minimal contributors 2 decent outings & 1 bad outing seems to be their level……consistently.
  18. JD-TWINS
    8 runs - along with inexplicable outcome of Julien being thrown out by 3 steps trying to score from 2B with 2 outs on a hit to LF - is enough offense……even if it all happened in the 1st inning! It was squarely on SWR & the Pen……..SWR was responsible for 5 runs in 4 1/3. I’m sure it’s difficult to sit for 30 pitch opposition innings for 3 straight innings - difficult to get rhythm and maintain concentration. 5 runs is too much. Topa & Stewart being out is a hole …….. Thielbar was really disappointing as he was theoretically the best option they sent out there. Gotta throw strikes………he’s devolved to the #8 guy if everyone is healthy. Jackson, honestly looks like he’s 42 on the mound. Seems the tank is empty. Maybe he needs a 10-15 IL stint for “tired arm” or some ailment? Okert’s slider seems not quite as effective as we all might have hoped. Gotta have MLB stuff to get guys out.
  19. JD-TWINS
    All good for Zebby! Will check back after a half dozen starts ……. sounds intriguing with multiple pitches and ability to go 6 1/3! 9 K’s good at any level.
  20. JD-TWINS
    Castro had a solid year last year - really good compared to his history. I was hopeful - expecting something similar - he’s exceeded that so far. Maybe he’s more relaxed not having to play SS? He won’t get much time from here on out at 3B with Lewis back in 3-4 weeks. To me, he’s a solid parallel to Buxton in CF! Should see 600 innings out there this year. He’s really hitting well right handed this year. He’s a better option in LF against left handed pitching v. Martin, if Buxton plays CF.
  21. JD-TWINS
    June 15 line-up for kicks v. Right handed pitching: Julien - Buxton - Kepler - Lewis - Jeffers - Correa - Larnach - Castro - Miranda Kirilloff - Santana - Farmer - Vazquez on the bench………..Wallner may squeeze in somehow? This line-up is exciting with guys just playing to their norms!!
  22. JD-TWINS
    Larnach should be getting lots of credit - Team was desperate when Wallner didn’t show up!! Larnach had been out hurt ….,,,he has a quiet stance with a real heir of confidence going. Sweet production! Hope it holds up!!! Kepler - can’t say enough…… .444 since his return. Jeffers - really locked in with his approach. “2 strike, short stroke Ryan” may be how he should hit all the time? Saw a breakdown in last couple days on MLB and he spreads out and doesn’t lift his foot nearly as much with 2 strikes. His average is higher and he has similar power with 2 strikes. Odd! Something he should consider? Too aggressive last night for a guy that looks really, really good after he see 3-4 pitches in an at bat. I generally support Baldelli in everything he does because it is at least thoughtful. He has a reason - maybe don’t agree 100% but he’s nearly always got a good argument & nobody has a crystal ball. HOWEVER, what the hell is Ryan Jeffers doing batting lead off? Castro batting 3rd? ……..tried to get over it last night but can’t just bat guys in a descending order of OPS or whatever. Castro is a switch hitting speed guy and Jeffers is around top 10 in baseball in RBI. Can’t justify it at all. That said, I do not believe for one second that the Team’s hitting philosophy changed on April 20 to a level swing, let’s make contact approach. “Barreling the ball” is, and always has been the mantra. They are just getting it done! The coaching doesn’t deserve any more credit now than they deserved blame previous to April 20. Can’t just flip a switch and coach up guy’s ability to hit. THEY, can start executing more than one guy at a time though……that’s been the genesis of the success over last 20 games.
  23. JD-TWINS
    I like the Royals veteran pitching additions……Lugo & Wacha & reliever Will Smith. Ragans and Singer are very good young arms! Salvador Perez may flame out, but if he doesn’t…….he’s an MVP vote getter ………Witt could win MVP! They look good collectively and I think they are an above .500 club for sure! The Guardians cannot sustain everyone having success cumulatively!! Kwan is out for a month - they will level out. Their pitching will keep them competitive, so they are the 2nd worry. Detroit is counting on Maeda & Flarhety and it’s not happening over a 6 month season. Quick start and now are at, where they will finish, around .500. The Twins too will not continue to play .850 ball as they have over last 20 games, surprise! Anyway, I do not see the Twins drifting below a .500 record from now to mid-June. Meaning, they are still 8 games over .500 by June 15. Another roughly 30 games between then and now…….,predicting 38-30. That’s a 90-91 win pace…….Then Lewis comes back!!! When is Lee healthy, Stewart healthy, Topa healthy, & will Wallner come around - few big questions!
  24. JD-TWINS
    Another 2 out - RBI from Max……he’s up to six now, at a minimum, since coming off IL…….he’s gotta be the MVP of this run! Bunch of contributors, obviously! I’m just jazzed that after his 1-20 start that he’s capable of this level of play.
  25. JD-TWINS
    If you see the replay he’s trying to grab the ball but more focused on getting to first base quickly…….had Biggio at 2B all day I would think? Either way, that ball can’t get through the infield - to me, that negates his WPA and that value should go to Kepler!……..don’t really care about WPA but that play was weak.
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