JD-TWINS

Farmer & Santana are the two depth guys for the infield. Miranda has essentially zero chance out of Spring Training to play for the Twins - he may play somewhere else? Santana has missed only a couple weeks since 2014 due to injury and Farmer was available every day last year other than the few weeks out after getting hit in the face. Santana has experience & no mental issues with being DH. Sound defender at 1B. 2 catchers…………that’s 8 on the dirt. Wallner - Buxton/Castro - Kepler………Gordon or Martin or FA signing of Duvall for the 5th spot. I can’t see Larnach because he can’t add depth in CF. Larnach could make it if RAKING in Spring Training since Martin has options, so he could be up & down as Buxton’s availability goes up & down. Good problems - position players seem set & if they add Duvall, with Martin as his back-up from St. paul, it would be fantastic.

Santana’s the insurance policy needed - his blah year in ‘23 stacks up as even to, or a little better, than Miranda’s 2022……..and he’s way better defensively. Just makes sense to establish a floor for offensive expectations with some potential for better results when mixed into a better line-up. Miranda’s WAR in ‘22, with roughly 440 AB’s, was 1.0. Santana’s WAR in ‘23, with roughly 550 AB’s, was 2.7. He hit 23 HR’s last year. He plays every day if needed. Seems to be a no brainer!

Gallo didn’t displace anybody in ‘23 ……so, they may have spent $5M more than everyone would have liked. It was a risk & he was pretty good well into May. After July 15 it was obvious he was just around for defensive insurance & his flexibility defensively. He had no shot at the Playoff roster but they didn’t want to release him because he could defend across the OF & play a good 1B. They were paying him either way and couldn’t option him. They kept him in September with the roster expansion and on October 1st they tipped their hat and removed him from the 26 man. It was frustrating to watch but he actually brought value most of the time (not defending 3K’s per game!) with some surprise HR’s and a great glove.

My timing is such that I’m aware of the Santana signing……an advantage! Julien will start every game there’s a RH pitcher, plus some pinch hit opportunities. He’s in the line-up as a starter 70% of the time, minimum. He won’t get a moment at 1B regardless of what he said at Twins Fest……,maybe, if Kirilloff goes in IL for extended period of a month or more. Santana posts - he’s a switch hitter - that’s his M.O. & he’s a good defensive guy at 1B. Kirilloff starts 70% of games at 1B as his health allows. Santana the balance of starts. Farmer at 2B, 25% - 30% (45 games) of the time facing LH starters. Rests CC as needed through the year (20 games). Rests Lewis as needed through the year (30 games). Pinch hits a dozen times or so. 4 games started per week where & when needed. Farmer & Santana are the depth guys in the infield. Castro is depth guy behind the Wallner/Buxton/Kepler trio playing CF a bunch as Buxton will need to DH to stay healthy. Last OF spot?? I do not think they can carry Larnach because he can’t play CF. Gordon needs to hit in Spring Training or he’s gone. Martin fits the flexibility mold and hits RH. We’ll see………..don’t see anymore position signings………Duvall would fit but that eliminates Larnach & Gordon from being involved on the club in ‘24. Martin can go up & down from St. Paul. With Santana signing, Miranda, as well as Larnach & Gordon are all prime trade guys that may not have extreme value but they are better than prospects for some other teams.

It’s a move Team’s make - the Defending World Champs claimed him when Reds released - are they clueless as well? I live in Cincinnati & have seen him 6-7 times. He’s Pagan like to fans, but only 27. He had a 3.69 ERA. He’s not a multi-dimensional guy and he has some control issues. He can look very good at times as well, hence the ERA. If Twins can work with him in St. Paul, his velocity may jump 1-2 MPH &/or they work in another pitch &/or his control. Worth a shot with an option left!

Santana is the perfect compliment to Kirilloff in the RH batter’s box. If Kirilloff gets nicked they have a guy that posts every day he’s asked to play. He can play two months straight if needed. Also, as a complete aside, I’m assuming he can handle the bat and advance runners with contact if overmatched & can bunt as well. Veteran that doesn’t strike out at a high rate and walks at a good rate & plays great defense (that seems overlooked here) at 1B —- with 23 HR power as recently as 2023!! This is the front office adding a guy of value and getting mostly nothing but static about the move - lots & lots of critics last year with Solano signing as well! We’ll see.

Team shouldn’t develop in Minneapolis, develop in St. Paul. He establishes a floor at 1B. “Chances” in the Show come in rebuilding organizations or out of desperation. Santana’s actually better on defense than anyone else we roster……..+11 in one rating & +2 in a second rating. Can move his salary somewhere at the break if he’s underperforming (via trade or release) or if Miranda - Severino & Co. are pushing their way in to the team. Better than getting to Spring Training with a clear option v. hoping Miranda can get back to similar production to that of typical Santana. Miranda’s 2022 (his good year) he had a .325 OBP & .751 OPS with 1.0 WAR & 15 HR in 444 AB’s. Santana’s 2023 was a .318 OBP & .747 OPS with 2.7 WAR & 23 HR in 550 AB’s. The WAR is higher because of 110 more AB’s & much better defense. They established a Floor for that role and it matches up favorably - at least level, to Miranda’s 2022.

Still think the rotation on the dirt is very solid……….can’t discount that even with his solid contributions in ‘23, he only played in 80 games - didn’t start in some - DHed in some. The infield did pretty well w/o him, not perfect. Lewis - CC - Julien - Kirilloff (Farmer/Miranda) & Castro in emergencies is a good group IMO. Farmer is depth at SS & 3B for rest & he platoons at 2B.

Predicting 30-40 games in CF, as if I know. Balance of 120 total (80) will be at DH. Duvall can catch the ball & had 21 HR in 92 games last season. Can use Martin’s options to fill in if Duvall is hurt for couple weeks at a time.

Duvall is a better fit…….less cost, maybe $10M & just 1 year or with some flexibility with a buyout for the 2nd year. He hit 21 HR in 92 games in ‘23. He’s a veteran with playoff experience. He can play CF/LF/DH as needed. Solid player, when healthy. He could be combined with Martin as a AAA back-up. Buxton will principally be a DH so defensive depth is necessary. Soler can’t really play defense……a liability.

‘23……..Clevinger 9-9 with the lowly White Sox. 131 innings with a 3.77 ERA. He seems to work well at $16-$17M - flip DeSclafani’s salary in a trade and there’s $12M available against Clevinger’s number. 2 year deal & 2nd year mutual option. Montgomery for 5 years is the best move to me.

Maybe Duvall fits the high end of that $$ available number??

Montgomery for 5 years at $26M/year with player option in year’s 4 & 5 would be a fine signing to me. Martinez & Soler are both essentially just guys that DH………we have Byron Buxton slotted there for a big chunk of games. Lack of position flexibility/ability seems to be counterintuitive to the Twins M.O. Both more $$ than willing to spend for offense…….Duvall is much better value. Chapman is a non-starter with our infield depth. Signing Snell is nuts with his health history……….more Cy Young’s than complete games as an aside. Bellinger - 12 years - seriously? Even 5 years seems like a stretch and anything more than $20M, with his ‘20-‘22 seasons factored in, the equation makes him seem like not somebody to consider.

Don’t disagree, just because there are guys with potential all around him……waiting to succeed. Buxton is a physical freak when healthy so tough to compare him with most guys when he’s healthy……….been 9 years with Byron though - 1 year above 100 games. Kirilloff has been up for 3 years……..wrist in ‘21 - ‘22 - early ‘23. Assuming that’s fixed now? Messed up shoulder that’s fixed now? He should get a year’s worth of runway with only 700 AB’s to date. Buxton career: .239 BA - .300 OBP - 106 OPS+ Kirilloff career: .259 BA - .319 OBP - 104 OPS+

As stated, I like Lee at 3B - Julien at 2B and that’s it ………. hoping for 20 years from now it’s F. Robinson, Henry Aaron, & Royce Lewis as great corner OF’s! They tried him due to ability & fit in CF - unfortunate injury. Seems he could handle LF to get the other guy’s bats in the line-up?………maybe he’s at 1B & Kirilloff moves to the grass? Farmer is the back-up SS - back-up 3B - platoon 2B. No first base, as you state.

Last post of the day - BIG error by me above here, not trying to confuse……mixed up Julien’s PA’s with AB’s. (16 HR in 338 AB, so HR every 21.2 AB) my bad! Eddie with mild power advantage. Point is still that they are both good players/hitters. That said - was watching Hot Stove a bit on MLB. They were saying Josh Naylor was going to lead the Guardians back into the “Central mix”. ’23 comparison for kicks: Naylor - 17 HR in 452 AB - .354 OBP - OPS+ 133 Kirilloff - 11 HR in 281 AB - .348 OBP - OPS+ 117 Julien - 16 HR in 338 AB - .381 OBP - OPS+ 130 Both Twins players outshine Naylor with same AB’s & Guardians are building around his lead. Seems we have a couple of keepers!

No issue. Assuming Farmer is the “rest guy” for CC and the “rest guy” for Lewis, especially if Miranda doesn’t make the 26 man. Also, he’s the platoon at 2B v. LH pitching most of the time.

I saw $118M was the expected player spend/payroll for ‘24 about 10 days ago from one, somewhat confusing, source. Twins moved Polanco, reduction to $108M. They got $8M in cash supposedly in the trade, spend reduction to $100M. Add Topa & DeSclafani’s salaries of $13M, total now to $113M. Last season payroll at $154M…….typical add to payroll is 5% minimum in MLB. That number would typically bring the total to $162M. The impression I got from reading here, the lost TV revenue was 50% of the contract total with typically half going to MLB. Not sure of these details but I think that’s accurate. There will be some TV revenue to be had - just no guaranteed path nor number at this point. Getting close to a solution per yesterday’s Athletic. Assuming zero TV revenue - $162M expected spend after going to 2nd round of playoffs and typical 5% add, then less the $27M of actual lost TV revenue = $135M payroll expectation at a minimum. Sign Solano & Clevinger - go to Spring Training.

Love position flexibility - am doubtful though that Eddie Julien should be part of this type of approach. Sounds good, but expecting him to move around seems to be outside of the scope of sound judgement. I don’t have a crystal ball but it seems to me that mastering/becoming adequate at 2B is a high enough expectation. Good hitters are hard to find - cultivate. Kirilloff - Julien - Wallner - Lee - obviously Lewis - Jeffers, these are ALL guys the organization needs to hold on to with their upside. Jenkins is untouchable. Can’t make trades just to be active or interesting for the fan base. That said, any other position players should be on the “available list” for trades. Maybe we can’t get a #2 rotation guy via trade by holding on to these guys - gotta take the bad with the good IMO. Sign a FA pitcher & all good!

So I agree on a back up plan - gotta keep rolling if Kirilloff is hurt. Prudent to try Julien there some in the Spring. Seems most of the friction on Kirilloff comes from Lee needing a spot on the dirt. Last year, when Lewis only played 3B about 58 games, the slant was Lee slotted best on the left side and could drop in at 3B flawlessly. I see Lewis as the most athletic and capable to switch positions. Going forward into ‘25 (assuming a blended approach in ‘24) it could be Lewis in LF with Wallner in RF OR Lewis at 1B and Kirilloff in LF. Let Lee play 3B & Julien play 2B and let them get secure in those spots.

What’s wrong with .270 BA - .348 OBP - 11 HR in less than 50% of a season’s AB’s - 117 OPS+ He’s hurt TOO much, agreed. His output, when in the line-up is good. Still young and continually chasing good health…….no reason to make a move at 1B now.

Could respond the same to any of comments so far, just an observation here…….don’t understand the Kirilloff scrutiny other than the obvious health issues? Somewhat healthy in ‘23 as compared to previous couple years, he had a .348 OBP and hit a HR every 25.5 AB (11 in 281) ……..Julien had an approximate OBP of .385 and he hit a HR every 25.5 AB (16 in 408). One guy has no power and the other may take his position away because of his power ……….doesn’t seem to add up? To me, they are a strong OBP duo with reasonable to better HR pop for the right side of the infield. I think they should stick with this duo and see how it plays out through a season together to evaluate defensively and in key spots in the line-up.

Kepler has value, obviously, & I’d like to respect what he was able to do in 2nd half last year. He was one of 5 guys in the game to have 30 XBH & hit over .300……..along with C. Seager & 3 others. That said, I think that Lee is the guy at 3B & Julien stays at 2B going forward. Moving Max shouldn’t be ignored as it seems to me that athletically, Lewis could handle LF next week - Wallner to right. If Lee’s not ready out of Spring Training they could piece together 3B with Farmer everyday - Castro occasionally - Miranda occasionally if he’s rostered. Moving Kepler doesn’t force Gordon or Larnach into the line-up unless they force their way in with their bat.

You make my point in that Miranda has options and needs to force his way on to the roster………if he’s healthy & if he might hit well & admitting he’s a lesser defender than Santana. Santana is a solution. I think Solano, for continuity after Polanco was moved, would be a good $3.5M spent as an alternative to Kirilloff - because of the added power, I like Santana even more at $6M. Probably best to go with internal youth and sort out which guy deserves the RH AB’s at 1B…….save the $$. It’s worth mentioning that to do nothing is a decision - relying on Miranda could be a big mistake. I’d rather eat $3-4M after a guy is released in June and Miranda is raking v. not having any alternative to Miranda & watch him hit .218!

He’s not bad - he had a couple decent years here in Cincinnati. He’s hurt 40% or more of his career - that’s the big problem. If he’s healthy, I figure that the organization (coaches/catchers) can optimize his pitch mix. Need 120 innings somehow. To me, Topa is the guy that makes the trade worthwhile. If he’s 85% of the guy he was in ‘23 he positively affects 55 games or more over the course of the season. The two prospects just make the deal more palatable. I think a potential #5 starter - #5/#6 guy in the Pen that’s potentially very effective - $8M, these are the real values in the trade.